3
National Security and Technological Environments and Their Effects

National security and technological environments are intertwined because technology has a strong influence on the ways wars are fought and the character of the missions reserve components are asked to perform. Of the broad range of technologies considered by the committee, two-communications (with continuously increasing bandwidth) and information (with dramatically increased computing power and advanced data-handling capacity)-were judged to have the most potential for improving the readiness and effectiveness of reserve components and their integration with active components.

THE ENVIRONMENTS

Technology will have a major influence on the national security environment and on the ways military operations are conducted. Although the specifics are impossible to predict, the committee developed a general characterization of the future based on significant current trends that are expected to continue.

In A New National Security Strategy for a New Century, the new multipolar world is described as extremely complex-in stark contrast to the simpler, more linear, bipolar world of the Cold War. The dangers of this scenario include the following [emphasis added]:

...Ethnic conflict and outlaw states threaten regional stability; terrorism, drugs, organized crime and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction are global concerns that transcend national borders.... (The White House, 1997)

The Defense Strategy (DoD, 1998b), which focuses on how the Department of Defense will implement the National Security Strategy, forecasts similar dangers [emphasis added]:

The foremost regional danger to U.S. security is the continuing threat that hostile states with significant military power pose to allies and friends in key regions. Between now and 2015, it is reasonable to assume that more than one such aspiring regional power will have both the motivation and the means to challenge U.S. interests militarily.... In addition, transnational challenges-including terrorism, illegal drug flows, international organized crime, and migrant flows-are likely to increase through 2015, at times directly affecting U.S. citizens and interests both at home and abroad. (DoD), 1998b)

If the United States is challenged, the military will probably not have a very long time (unlike Operation Desert Shield in 1990) to mobilize and deploy its forces, wherever they are needed to deter hostile actions or respond to them with force. While small-scale operational requirements, such as peacekeeping, may develop gradually with ample time for preparation, most response times will be measured in hours or days rather than months. For example, in Global Engagement: A Vision for the 21st Century Air Force, "the ability to bring intense firepower to bear over global distances within hours to days" is part of the strategic vision. The vision includes an air expeditionary force that can "be ready to fight in less than three days" and rapid global mobility to meet "the need for immediate response to overseas events" (USAF, 1997).

New technologies are becoming increasingly available. The proliferation of technology reflects, in part, the growing globalization of business and the rapid transfer of technology applications, as well as the increasing flow of information. Technology is not



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Technology-Based Pilot Programs: Improving Future U.S. Military Reserve Forces 3 National Security and Technological Environments and Their Effects National security and technological environments are intertwined because technology has a strong influence on the ways wars are fought and the character of the missions reserve components are asked to perform. Of the broad range of technologies considered by the committee, two-communications (with continuously increasing bandwidth) and information (with dramatically increased computing power and advanced data-handling capacity)-were judged to have the most potential for improving the readiness and effectiveness of reserve components and their integration with active components. THE ENVIRONMENTS Technology will have a major influence on the national security environment and on the ways military operations are conducted. Although the specifics are impossible to predict, the committee developed a general characterization of the future based on significant current trends that are expected to continue. In A New National Security Strategy for a New Century, the new multipolar world is described as extremely complex-in stark contrast to the simpler, more linear, bipolar world of the Cold War. The dangers of this scenario include the following [emphasis added]: ...Ethnic conflict and outlaw states threaten regional stability; terrorism, drugs, organized crime and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction are global concerns that transcend national borders.... (The White House, 1997) The Defense Strategy (DoD, 1998b), which focuses on how the Department of Defense will implement the National Security Strategy, forecasts similar dangers [emphasis added]: The foremost regional danger to U.S. security is the continuing threat that hostile states with significant military power pose to allies and friends in key regions. Between now and 2015, it is reasonable to assume that more than one such aspiring regional power will have both the motivation and the means to challenge U.S. interests militarily.... In addition, transnational challenges-including terrorism, illegal drug flows, international organized crime, and migrant flows-are likely to increase through 2015, at times directly affecting U.S. citizens and interests both at home and abroad. (DoD), 1998b) If the United States is challenged, the military will probably not have a very long time (unlike Operation Desert Shield in 1990) to mobilize and deploy its forces, wherever they are needed to deter hostile actions or respond to them with force. While small-scale operational requirements, such as peacekeeping, may develop gradually with ample time for preparation, most response times will be measured in hours or days rather than months. For example, in Global Engagement: A Vision for the 21st Century Air Force, "the ability to bring intense firepower to bear over global distances within hours to days" is part of the strategic vision. The vision includes an air expeditionary force that can "be ready to fight in less than three days" and rapid global mobility to meet "the need for immediate response to overseas events" (USAF, 1997). New technologies are becoming increasingly available. The proliferation of technology reflects, in part, the growing globalization of business and the rapid transfer of technology applications, as well as the increasing flow of information. Technology is not

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Technology-Based Pilot Programs: Improving Future U.S. Military Reserve Forces always used for peaceful purposes, however. Foreign governments and nongovernmental entities that are not friendly to the United States will continue to have access to relatively sophisticated weapons and weapons of mass destruction. No doubt hostile states, as well as terrorists, drug lords, and organized crime, will continue to exploit every advance in technology. These visions of the future were projected against a backdrop of constrained funding for the Department of Defense. Although some increases over recent levels are forecast for procurement budgets, which contain the funds for buying advanced weapons, in general funding levels are expected to be approximately 50 percent lower in real terms than they were in the mid-1980s (DoD, 1999c). The overall defense budget is expected to be about 30 percent lower. The pressure to restrain defense spending reflects the absence of a major peer competitor to U.S. military power. Given the decreases in the overall defense budget, the pace of current operations (e.g., in the Balkans and Persian Gulf areas), and the need to maintain military readiness, there are not enough funds to modernize weapons systems. Because budgetary pressures can be expected to continue, the military has strong incentives to look to new technologies to maximize the benefits of its expenditures. Joint Vision 2010 was issued by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff to establish a conceptual template for using emerging technologies to achieve new levels of joint war-fighting effectiveness (CJCS, 1996). Joint Vision 2010 was developed on the premise that modern technologies-particularly information-specific technologies-would make possible an unprecedented increase in joint operational capability: We must have information superiority: the capability to collect, process, and disseminate an uninterrupted flow of information while exploiting or denying an adversary's ability to do the same. Information superiority will require both offensive and defensive information warfare.... Offensive information warfare will degrade or exploit an adversary's collection or use of information. It will include both traditional methods, such as a precision attack to destroy an adversary's command and control capability, as well as nontraditional methods such as electronic intrusion into an information and control network to convince, confuse, or deceive enemy military decision makers. (CJCS, 1996) The Concept for Future Joint Operations (CJCS, 1997), which was issued to amplify Joint Vision 2010, focuses directly on the importance of technology. The armed forces are attempting to determine how emerging technologies, combined with organizational and operational changes, could affect military effectiveness. In fact, technologies could revolutionize military affairs. A revolution in military affairs...is a conceptual point of departure for future joint operations. In response to a strategic opportunity or threat, [a revolution in military affairs] may be a complete renovation of the conduct of war. Generally, the military of an affected state must incorporate advanced technology [emphasis added], leading to new tactical, operational, and strategic concepts and relevant organizational adaptation. (CJCS, 1997) Some examples of the military's use of advanced technologies are described below: Precision weapons, with unprecedented worldwide mobility and long-range, all-weather capabilities, will be used on various platforms. The combination of precision weapons and effective sensors, command-and-control systems, and accurate reconnaissance, surveillance, intelligence, target tracking, and target acquisition systems will change the nature of military operations and tactics. Information technologies, including signal control and management, will dramatically improve the gathering, processing, storing, and dissemination of information in near-real time. Space-based platforms and unmanned vehicles will enhance information systems and related command, control, and communications capabilities. Units armed with lighter and more lethal equipment will be able to deploy faster than today's units and will require a smaller logistics footprint in the theater of operations. Highly mobile combat units will be dispersed over the battlefield, increasing both their survivability and their reliance on precision fire to engage the enemy at long ranges. Greatly enhanced situational awareness, made possible by advanced sensors, communications, and computational capabilities, will make dispersed operations practical. A global information grid, much like today's Internet or corporate intranets, will link deployed military operators in close proximity to each other

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Technology-Based Pilot Programs: Improving Future U.S. Military Reserve Forces or in other countries, in the United States, in the air, or in space (e.g., remote staffs or systems). Many ground, sea, and air vehicles (e.g., airborne reconnaissance vehicles) will be unmanned and remotely controlled; this will be possible because of the robust communications and other information capabilities available to controllers and users, wherever they might be. The use of very sophisticated, high-fidelity simulations for training and for near-real-time mission planning will become widespread. The cutting edge of technology development for the military services is likely to be (1) the development of advanced intelligence and reconnaissance capabilities, (2) the development of new weapons systems and munitions (e.g., sensors and other electronic systems along with ships, aircraft, tanks, missiles, bombs, and bullets), and (3) integration through networking. The Army Research Laboratory's Annual Review is filled with descriptions of projects in support of a future digitized battlefield, including ideas for advancing sensors, signal and image processing, displays, information distribution, visualization, modeling, simulation, vehicles, armor, and munitions (DA, 1998a). Publications by other laboratories in other military services are filled with similar scenarios. Advanced technologies will have a profound effect on the capabilities of active and reserve components, especially as the technologies relate to combat systems. In many respects the effects on both components will be positive (e.g., advanced weapons and sensors can increase the effectiveness of active and reserve component forces). However, if these technologies are not deployed evenly across the active and reserve components, integration could be adversely affected. Also, if advanced technologies introduce requirements for increased training time that are not offset by improvements in training efficiency, the reserve components' limited opportunities for training may put them at a disadvantage relative to the active components. In short, the positive and negative influences of advanced technologies on the integration of the reserve and active components have to be recognized. In this study, the challenge was to identify advanced technologies that could improve the integration of reserve components with their active counterparts. Two of these technologies are communications and information. Both are areas in which civilian applications are expected to lead the way as they have in the past several years. Indeed, the Department of Defense no longer drives research, development, and the applications of many technologies in the United States. As a result, the trend toward wider use of commercial off-the-shelf hardware and software for military communications and information applications seems certain to continue. Two areas of military operations that will be strongly influenced by changes in technology, especially communications and information technologies, are (1) distributed operations (called "network centric warfare" in the Navy) and (2) joint operations (see Box 3-1). They will evolve over time, no doubt, partly in response to insights from testing and experimentation and partly in response to real-world experience with adversaries seeking to exploit the vulnerabilities created by the reliance of U.S. forces on new technologies. The committee intends the pilot programs described in this report to be part of this evolutionary process and hopes that the recommended tests and experiments will prepare U.S. forces to respond to creative enemy tactics and technological innovations. The committee believes that equally creative testing and experimentation will increase the capability of highly sophisticated forces to respond to a wide range of threats. MISSIONS FOR THE RESERVES Given the uncertainties in the national security environment, the specific missions assigned to reserve components cannot be predicted. Therefore, the committee decided to consider a range of missions that seem reasonable from today's perspective. Future Missions1 Based on missions that the reserve components are currently being asked to perform, future missions for the reserve components can be categorized into several types along a continuum, from traditional war-fighting missions to serving as a test-bed for new doctrines, tactics, and technologies. The following descriptions of missions include indications of the possible role of technology. First, traditional war-fighting missions in a major-theater war will continue to be the most demanding 1    General references from the Department of Defense for this section include Cohen (1999), Cragin (1999), and Shelton (1999).

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Technology-Based Pilot Programs: Improving Future U.S. Military Reserve Forces BOX 3-1 Potential Areas of Change For many years, the Navy has encouraged distributed operations and the sharing of data and information across and among different weapon platforms. This concept, which the Navy calls "network centric warfare," is also being explored by the other military services. The concept reflects the idea that disparate units with the same understanding of the combat situation can be equipped with weapons that strike precisely over longer distances and can coordinate their operations. At the same time, they can also be more dispersed. The significant implications of this concept include a shift toward greater specialization (e.g., less air defense by ground forces in favor of more airborne air defense) and potentially smaller, less concentrated units of force. The Marine Corps has explored reversing the traditional relationship between its fire and maneuver elements in ground-force operations. Instead of relying on fire to keep an opponent in place so the maneuver elements can close in on and destroy him, the Marines have experimented with using maneuver elements to avoid direct contact with the opponent while directing long-range precision fire to destroy him. The Army has begun to consider significant changes in its long-term "Army After Next" project: (1) a shift toward smaller, more agile combat units and (2) a parallel shift toward more flattened command hierarchies. One possibility, for example, is eliminating the division as an echelon and moving toward an all brigade structure. The Air Force has acknowledged that the ability of future joint military teams to achieve full awareness of the battlefield will depend heavily on air-based and space-based intelligence, communications, weather analyses, and navigation. The Air Force's commitment to precision weapons will take advantage of the emerging ability to find and attack any target on the surface of the earth. The Air Force also recognizes the growing importance of information warfare and has indicated that the defense of U.S. information-intensive capabilities will have top priority. Sources: Cebrowski and Gartska, 1998; USAF, 1997; MacGregor, 1997. task for active and reserve forces over the next decade or more, even if a major-theater war is less likely to occur than other contingencies. Future war-fighting missions will have familiar requirements for reserve components. The technology issues for these missions include: (1) the extent to which technology could improve the readiness of reserve components to meet wartime demands for conflicts involving states, such as Iraq or North Korea; and (2) the ways technology could improve the integration of reserve components with the active forces in these missions. The potential time line for a major-theater war will include little or no warning time, which will limit the use of reserve component units in the initial phase of operations. 2 However, even if warning times are short, Selected Reserve units will play critical roles in mobilization, airlift, and U.S.-based activities in support of regional commanders. Because information and communications technologies have the potential to provide all units, anywhere on the globe, with a common operational picture, "remote staffs" could conduct integrated planning and support activities from geographically separated locations. This would allow forward deployed staffs to concentrate on essential mission events in the theater. Second, in an unstable world environment, U.S. forces, including reserve components, will continue to engage in small-scale contingency operations throughout the world involving a range of so-called "stability 2    Current response times of reserve components vary widely. Individual reservists can react within hours. Some small units can report within 3 to 5 days; larger force elements, which require longer processing times, can be available within 30 to 90 days (Smiley, 1999). Experts disagree about the response times for Army National Guard divisions, the largest organized force elements; members of the committee heard estimates ranging from a few months to the better part of a year.

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Technology-Based Pilot Programs: Improving Future U.S. Military Reserve Forces operations," from peacekeeping to providing humanitarian assistance. These operations could take place in a wide variety of climates, terrains, and locations, including urban areas. Because the political process that precipitates U.S. involvement usually takes time to develop, there is usually sufficient time to prepare for these operations. Each contingency situation is unique and requires forces, and perhaps training, tailored to meet specific needs. Also, the mix of forces for each stability operation is different, and participating organizations may not have trained together. Distributed training and simulation technologies could help prepare both reserve and active components for stability operations. Third, the spread of weapon-related technologies and the growing threat to critical U.S. infrastructure (e.g., from cyber and terrorist attacks), both during peacetime and wartime, could increase the potential scope of reserve component responsibilities in homeland defense. In the past two decades, reserve components have contributed to the defense of the continental United States by providing the majority of air defenses and the capability to control U.S. sovereign airspace. Looking ahead, the Department of Defense is considering using reserve components to augment active components for defense against missile attacks on U.S. territory or even to take almost full responsibility for these missions, similar to their responsibilities for current U.S. air-defense missions. Reserve component involvement in meeting nontraditional challenges inside the United States is also being expanded. For example, reserve components have been asked to assume more prominent roles in response to the use of nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons inside the United States. Advanced technologies for training and simulation, as well as advanced communications capabilities, could be crucial to the success of homeland defense missions. Finally, there are some indications that reserve components might be used as a test-bed for working out the implications of new doctrines, tactics, and related new technologies. For example, relative to information technology, the Department of Defense has decided to create a reserve component team of 22 persons to test information technology. ...to monitor and evaluate Department of Defense Web sites to ensure the sites do not compromise national security by revealing sensitive defense information...[the team] will scour Defense Web sites for information and trends of data that could be used to breach security or pose a threat to Defense operations and personnel. In addition, team members will evaluate Web site content to ensure compliance with departmental policies, procedures and best practices. (DoD, 1999a) Common Elements Common elements in most of the potential missions of the reserve components are: (1) the need for relatively quick response times on the part of U.S. military forces, and (2) the opportunity to leverage technologies (especially, advanced communications and information capabilities) to train part-time forces in the time available (by law and policies) and to improve the integration of reserve components and active components. These common elements can become the focus of improving the readiness, effectiveness, and integration of reserve components, without predicting their specific future missions. To that end, this study developed pilot programs, tests, and experiments to assist future decision makers. RELEVANT TECHNOLOGIES Considering the potential positive and negative influences of a range of technologies and the challenges of identifying technologies that can improve integration, the committee focused on two related topics: communications and information technologies, including computing. This focus is consistent with the military's joint vision and operating concepts for the year 2010, which encompass a variety of advanced communications and information technologies that underlie many of the plans for fighting wars more effectively. These two technologies will be fundamental to improving reserve components' ability to provide timely support for active components and joint military commanders. These technologies can also be used to improve reserve components' readiness, through more efficient use of limited training time, and to help create organizations that can perform essential functions in locations remote from the theater of operations. So what might the communications and information environment of the year 2010 look like? In 1965, Gordon Moore, a co-founder of Intel Corporation, observed that the number of transistors per square inch on integrated circuits (and therefore their computing power) had doubled yearly since they were invented. The rate of exponential growth soon declined a bit but leveled off with a doubling time of about 18 months.

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Technology-Based Pilot Programs: Improving Future U.S. Military Reserve Forces This rate of growth has continued to the present. Exponential growth cannot continue forever, of course, but the consensus opinion is that ''Moore's Law" will hold for many years to come. Recently, Moore predicted that, unless there is a radical shift in microprocessor science, the finite size of atomic particles will be the limiting factor in about five generations, about the year 2017 (Gibbs, 1997). Based on Moore's Law, by 2010 the density will be more than 100 times greater than it is today. Many other communications and information performance measures have also grown robustly. Examples include data storage densities, display densities, transfer speeds, and transmission bandwidths. Bandwidths have been increasing substantially each year in nearly all transmission media-wired, wireless, and satellite communication-and this growth is expected to accelerate. By 2010, the capacity to move high volumes of data quickly is expected to be vastly increased. Advances in military communications and information technologies will be fostered primarily by the explosive growth in commercial communication and information systems (e.g., terrestrial backbones, satellite relays, and computers). Advanced military-specific applications of these technologies will be driven by the requirement for information superiority inherent in the conceptual template of Joint Vision 2010. Collectively, these advances are expected to lead to a capability of providing commercial and military users all over the world with rapid and reliable access to information. The communications and information environment in 2010 will be characterized by incredible brawn and speed. One consequence, which is already obvious today, will be the merger of communications and information technologies (e.g., computing at a distance, data at a distance, and the blurring of the line between the desktop and the Internet). Even a dozen years ago, the role of the Internet, and especially the World Wide Web, could not have been predicted. Based on past experience, there is no reason to think that the role of communications and information systems in 2010 can be accurately predicted. It is likely, however, that inexpensive worldwide access to information will be available to both wired and wireless sites over secured3 and unsecured intranets, which would also improve access to information by geographically dispersed elements of the military, especially reserve components. Generations of hardware and software will continue their rapid turnover, costs will continue to decrease, accessibility will continue to improve, and systems will become increasingly standardized. Software dependence on specific platforms will decrease as software development tools improve. As familiarity with the concepts and details of computing and communications increases, much of the general population, including reservists, will acquire reasonable facility with using these technologies. INFLUENCE OF TECHNOLOGY ON THE RESERVES Modern technology could be used to improve the readiness and effectiveness of reserve components and facilitate integration of active and reserve forces of the U.S. total force. ...information systems are a lever for increasing capabilities or reducing costs by enhancing access to and accountability for data and services.... A modern revolution in information technology offers the Navy another opportunity to make startling improvements. IT [information technology] provides individuals with unparalleled control over goods, services, and activities that cross the barriers of time and distance. (NRC, 1999) The committee believes that improving the capabilities of the reserve components to deploy (or to support the operations of deployed units) and improving the integration of the reserve components and the active components will depend on: (1) achieving readiness to deploy more rapidly (e.g., better trained individuals on 3    The committee believes that techniques for securing information will keep pace with the growing need to transmit information to geographically dispersed users via communications networks. Today, electronic commerce over the Internet is becoming commonplace, including the transfer of secure information involving financial transactions. More robust security measures are possible if highly classified data must be transmitted. The security aspects of using advanced communications and information technologies are explored in Commercial Multimedia Technologies for Twenty-First Century Army Battlefields, which includes the following statements: "Commercial technology in the area of security is evolving rapidly...The committee believes it is likely that at least some large classes of Army security applications can be satisfied by [commercial off-the-shelf] security technologies, even if there remains a significant residual set of applications that must be served by Army-specific developments.... The Army, and the DoD as a whole, can stimulate the development and accelerate the use of robust security protocols built on publicly available technologies" (NRC, 1995).

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Technology-Based Pilot Programs: Improving Future U.S. Military Reserve Forces call-up through more effective and efficient training, less time for administration of the call-up process, more efficient post-mobilization training to cut integration time, and integration at multiple levels of an organization); or (2) creating remote organizations with sufficient data-communications capability to support deployed forces from the continental United States, thus reducing the need to deploy support forces with combat forces. Specific technology applications, such as learning and simulation at a distance, are well suited to training distributed elements like reserve components who have limited time for training. Another application is to use modern, automated databases to help reserve components mobilize and deploy more quickly. A third application is to employ advanced communications and information technologies to enable reserve components to provide support for active components operating overseas without having to be deployed with them. Although these technologies are not new and are already under consideration by some military components, this report focuses on using them to improve the effectiveness and integration of the reserve components. (A more traditional way to reduce deployment time would be to increase airlift or sealift capability by procuring more transport aircraft and cargo ships. However, this approach, along with its budgetary and cost implications, is not addressed in this report.) The discussion that follows provides a general overview of the impact of technology on readiness and integration. The discussion is based on the assumption that enhancing the readiness and integration of reserve components will improve their mission effectiveness. Readiness A challenge for reserve components of the twenty-first century will be to achieve a higher state of readiness in peacetime and to compress the time required for them to mobilize, train, and deploy to operating locations for a wide range of military missions. The committee believes that the new deployment commitments of reserve components, particularly combat forces, require that communications and information technologies be used to improve their readiness to operate alongside active components. Several examples of how these technologies could improve readiness are described below. The mobilization process involves the transition of units and individuals from their day-to-day peacetime readiness posture to a state of complete wartime readiness for a designated operation. Technology can be used to identify appropriate units, speed up administrative processing, and conduct operation-specific training. Improving administrative processing will require developing common databases that identify the current status and availability of reserve component units and individuals. This information is currently stored in disparate sources in a wide range of formats, and processing is still done manually after units and individuals arrive at mobilization-processing stations. Existing and emerging technologies could greatly reduce administrative processing time if records were kept current, which will require common formats so that updates can be made electronically at the peacetime location of each unit and individual. Through technology, such as the judicious use of a mobilization smart card, some mobilization-processing stations might even be eliminated entirely. Training could also be vastly improved through advances in communications and information technologies, especially distance learning and simulation, which could be used for individual, unit, and joint training. Some reserve components have already recognized the importance of these techniques and have put programs in place to capitalize on them. Because of the unique ability of these technologies to bring training to the location where individuals or units reside (even into their homes) and to tailor training programs to the demands of a particular situation, communications and information technologies are particularly well suited to improving the training of reserve components. Although some reserve components are already using learning at a distance, the committee believes that by 2010 it will be very common, and the list of courses available will be extensive. Moreover, by 2010, the vast majority of existing military training courses will be digitized and accessible via secure sites on the Internet or secure electronic networks, as appropriate. (The committee notes that training at a distance might involve classified doctrines and tactics, which would require encryption.) Software that manages the training process independent of a student's location will be in place and will span both the active and reserve components. Tools for the development of self-paced instruction will be easier to use, multimedia presentations will be routine, and the cost of developing instruction will have decreased. "Intelligent tutors and mentors" may become commonplace and could be

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Technology-Based Pilot Programs: Improving Future U.S. Military Reserve Forces incorporated into courses, thus improving their effectiveness. The technologies are changing so rapidly, however, that it is difficult to predict the state of the art in five years, let alone 10 years. The only guiding principle in this environment is to remain flexible enough to ensure that the direction of training and simulation programs does not lead to a dead end.4 If distance learning becomes accessible to individuals at home, some training courses that are commonly conducted during reserve component drill periods could be taken at home. This would enrich the "hands-on" training time during drill periods by preparing all participants at home through mission-preparation materials. Units and individuals would arrive at the armory or base ready for field training. The committee believes that technology will improve all three kinds of simulations used by the military: live, virtual, and constructive simulations.5 Live exercises will involve more instrumentation for more objective assessments and improve after-action reviews. Instrumented ranges similar to those at the Army's National Training Center will be available for company-sized units of the National Guard. Mixing live and constructive-simulation exercises will be common. The quality and realism of virtual simulations will improve,6 and all types of weather conditions and environments will be represented. If virtual simulators were made available to reservists, and if other elements of the training paradigm (e.g., after-action reviews and interactions with other participants) were replicated and distributed in near-real time, then dispersed members of the reserve components could have the advantage of the same kind of training currently available to active components (and to some reservists) at the National Training Center and Red Flag.7 Constructive simulations will exercise staffs at all echelons and include joint operations. Perhaps the most important advance will be that constructive simulations will be distributed. The increasing capabilities of simulation devices will reduce the need for trainees to operate actual systems. The key to operating an F-16, for example, is to master the avionics systems, which means setting up and operating the computer programs (i.e., quasi-simulations) embedded in the aircraft. Tank operations require acquiring targets through sensors and aiming with lasers and computer-based displays. Maintenance of modern weapon systems is becoming increasingly dependent on computer-based diagnostics. Of course, at some point, trainees will still have to operate real systems to experience the time, distance, and stress of actual operational environments. Advanced simulation environments will be used to augment, but not replace, in situ practice whenever possible. Distributed simulations will have a major effect on the training of reserve components-especially the training of unit staffs. A major challenge on the modern battlefield is synchronization, which is a primary responsibility of the commanders and their battle staffs. The principal bottleneck in training combined arms formations (e.g., divisions and brigades) is the training of battle staffs. The challenge to individuals in reserve components who hold battle-staff positions is to undergo training often enough to become proficient. Constructive simulations have facilitated training by enabling individuals to train without combat elements. As technology advances between now and 2010, 4    The committee notes, for example, that new learning approaches are being planned for the Army of the Future. The main thrust of these approaches involves "the realization that training, particularly the way we learn and sustain digital skills, will present new and different challenges" (DA, 1998b). The Army has developed a "digital learning strategy" for individuals, battle staffs, and units that is evolving as the Army discovers more about digital learning. The most advanced stage of the three-step learning strategy is intended to "develop highly adaptive, hyper-proficient, individuals, small teams, leaders, and units." At this highest level of proficiency, "high performance organizations are discovering new ways to do new things ... improving things as they go along through reflective thought combined with interactive, intense, immersion-based experimental observation, then by execution. They routinely modify tactics, techniques and procedures...'' The Army indicates that a foundation of this kind of training is distributed learning. However, even with this advanced thinking, the Army intends to follow proven principles like "train as you fight." 5    Live simulations include live elements, for example, real exercises such as wargames. In virtual simulations, people are immersed in a virtual reality provided by computer-driven displays and interactions. Constructive simulations involve analytic representations of various aspects of the real world (e.g., ground vehicles and aircraft) that can be manipulated by computer to experiment with force-on-force interactions and performance. For additional information, readers may consult Commercial Multimedia Technologies for Twenty-First Century Army Battlefields (NRC, 1995). 6    Future simulations can be expected to be very realistic. For example, consider today's Internet accessibility of satellite photos [http://terraserver.microsoft.com/] and extrapolate, using Moore's Law, to 2010. 7    Red Flag is Air Force pilot training for air-to-air and air-to-ground tactics involving aggressor forces. Active, Air Guard, and Air Force Reserve units are eligible to participate, but it is principally an active event.

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Technology-Based Pilot Programs: Improving Future U.S. Military Reserve Forces reserve battle-staff members will be able to train at their local armories or even in their homes. Just as changing military technologies have increased the range of weapon systems, environmental and safety concerns have reduced the available training space. Some weapon systems that will be used in 2010 require so much space that they cannot be used for training anywhere. For example, the crew of a supersonic-cruise F-22 armed with extended-range missiles probably will not be able to train to its full mission capability within the continental United States airspace; theater-missile defense systems will be fully operated only in real-life circumstances. Therefore, advanced, high-fidelity simulations will be necessary for training, and reserve component personnel and units can be trained on the simulation devices as well as their active counterparts. In the field, information-based mission-rehearsal and post-mission playback devices can be combined with field simulators to increase the "reality" and effectiveness of mission-training sessions. In addition, virtual forces can be used to expand the scale of current training exercises to enable units to train at the unit level. Today, full-scale, unit-level training is possible only occasionally by reserve component units because of the difficulty of securing training areas and amassing supplies, equipment, and personnel. With simulation technology, the rare experiences gained from live exercises (e.g., at the National Training Center) could become common experiences for all units. Integration Some integration issues reflect cultural differences based on historical and traditional experiences and will require sociological and doctrinal, rather than technological, solutions. But technology can remove obstacles to other kinds of integration. For instance, the limited availability of reserve component units and their geographical separation is a constraint on their integration with active component units. As a rule, units operate most comfortably with other units in close proximity with whom they are familiar, and many active component units are based at the same post and interact with one another daily. However, even active component units in the same division, or wing, may train at command centers in different locations and only meet face to face to prepare for an exercise or to engage in post-exercise reviews. With a robust communications network, reserve and active component units will be able to participate in the same exercises (despite their geographic separation) on a regular basis. This training can encourage a sense of unit cohesiveness, as well as involve reserve components in mission rehearsals, such as those that were conducted by forward-based divisions in Germany prior to deployment to Bosnia.8 Replacement units and individuals like those cycling through Bosnia and Northern and Southern Watch in the Middle East would have the benefit of experiencing real-world operations electronically before they arrive in the theater. One of the most important benefits of new technology will be the use of remote staffs. Sometimes staffs that plan and execute operations for major regional conflicts or for stability operations do not have the in-house expertise to meet the full range of challenges they face. For example, when forces were sent to Bosnia, the European Command staff was substantially expanded to support them, and hundreds of reserve personnel were sent to Europe temporarily to assist in staff planning. For both Bosnia and Operation Desert Storm, reserve component units were mobilized and deployed in the continental United States to provide logistics support for forces deployed overseas. The technology of 2010 will provide forward-based staff with ready access to remote databases, imagery, and technical and operational expertise. Personnel operating in multiple locations around the world will have strategic and tactical pictures of events at the same time as the commander and his staff. Although a staff that works with a theater commander on a day-to-day basis and is physically located in the theater will have some advantages, the forward-based commander and staff will not require that experts be physically present to meet the full range of situations and environments they will encounter. Information and communications technologies can provide a rapidly expandable and adaptable staff capability for planning and execution that 8    Currently, mission rehearsals, also known as maneuver readiness exercises, are preparatory exercises conducted at Fort Polk for brigade and battalion task forces deploying to conduct the mission in Bosnia. These exercises consist of two phases. Phase 1 is a seven-day leader's training program seminar during which the unit staff goes through the "orders process" for typical missions, issues, and situations. After-action reviews and discussion groups are used extensively. Phase 2 is a 10-day exercise program in which leadership deals with the typical missions, issues, and situations they will face in Bosnia. The program takes place on the ground and includes extensive use of role players.

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Technology-Based Pilot Programs: Improving Future U.S. Military Reserve Forces capitalizes on "reach-back" for data and "reach-out" for the expertise to perform different functions. Remote staff elements will have to be carefully selected and receive specific guidance from commanders to ensure that they focus on data and analysis not readily available to the forward staff. Combat support (e.g., artillery) and combat service support (e.g., maintenance, supply, and transportation operations) staff elements may benefit substantially from remote staffing because of their need for diverse data and expertise. By 2010, well trained remote staffs that have access to expertise for special events and unique situations, or that can simply augment the capabilities of forward-based commanders, will become more common. Indeed, they may become the norm because they would limit the vulnerabilities (and attendant casualties) of forward-deployed U.S. forces. The remote staff concept for augmentation in a crisis or actual conflict is particularly well suited to the situation of reserve components. Among other things, reserve components may be more likely to retain personnel with a broad range of specialized skills who may be difficult to retain now because of competing job opportunities in the civilian marketplace.