Special Report 245

EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS

Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use

Committee for Study of Impacts of Highway Capacity Improvements on Air Quality and Energy Consumption

TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD

National Research Council

National Academy Press
Washington, D.C.
1995



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EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS: Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use Special Report 245 EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use Committee for Study of Impacts of Highway Capacity Improvements on Air Quality and Energy Consumption TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH BOARD National Research Council National Academy Press Washington, D.C. 1995

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EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS: Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use Transportation Research Board Special Report 245 Subscriber Categories IA planning and administration IB energy and environment Transportation Research Board publications are available by ordering directly from TRB. They may also be obtained on a regular basis through organizational or individual affiliation with TRB; affiliates or library subscribers are eligible for substantial discounts. For further information, write to the Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20418. Copyright 1995 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to the procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The study was sponsored by the Transportation Research Board, the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials, the Federal Highway Administration of the U.S. Department of Transportation, and the Environmental Protection Agency. Transportation Research Board funds came from unrestricted contributions of the Association of American Railroads, the UPS Foundation, Norfolk Southern Corporation, and Consolidated Rail Corporation. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Expanding metropolitan highways : implications for air quality and energy use/Committee for a Study of the Impacts of Highway Capacity Improvements on Air Quality and Energy Consumption. p. cm.—(Special report : 245) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-309-06107-5 1. Highway capacity—United States. 2. Traffic flow—United States. 3. Air—Pollution—Economic aspects—United States. 4. Energy consumption—United States. I. National Research Council (U.S.). Transportation Research Board. Committee for a Study of the Impacts of Highway Capacity Improvements on Air Quality and Energy Consumption. II. Series : Special report (National Research Council (U.S.). Transportation Research Board) : 245. HE336.H48E95 1995 388.4′13142′0973—dc20 95-4464 CIP Cover design: Karen L. White

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EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS: Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use Committee for Study of Impacts of Highway Capacity Improvements on Air Quality and Energy Consumption PAUL E. PETERSON, Chairman, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts PAUL E. BENSON, California Department of Transportation, Sacramento ROBERT G. DULLA, Sierra Research, Sacramento, California GENEVIEVE GIULIANO, University of Southern California, Los Angeles DAVID L. GREENE, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Tennessee FRANK S. KOPPELMAN, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois KENNETH J. LEONARD, Wisconsin Department of Transportation, Madison EDWIN S. MILLS, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois STEPHEN H. PUTMAN, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia WILLIAM R. REILLY, Catalina Engineering, Inc., Tucson, Arizona MICHAEL A. REPLOGLE, Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, D.C. GORDON A. SHUNK, Texas Transportation Institute, Arlington KENNETH E. SULZER, San Diego Association of Governments, California GEORGE V. WICKSTROM, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (retired), Kensington, Maryland CATHERINE WITHERSPOON, South Coast Air Quality Management District, Diamond Bar, California JULIAN WOLPERT, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey Liaison Representatives DAVID H. CLAWSON, American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials FREDERICK DUCCA, Federal Highway Administration, U.S. Department of Transportation

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EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS: Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use ROBIN MILES-MCLEAN, Environmental Protection Agency STEPHEN BLAKE, National Cooperative Highway Research Program, Transportation Research Board Transportation Research Board Staff NANCY P. HUMPHREY, Study Director

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EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS: Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use Preface The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 (CAAA) raised the importance of air quality as a goal for the transportation sector alongside the more traditional goals of mobility and safety. Transportation agencies face an enormous challenge to provide a transportation system that meets these multiple goals. In particular, highway projects —the backbone of traditional transportation programs—have come under intense scrutiny. Once thought to reduce congestion and air pollution, projects that expand highway capacity are now being questioned for their stimulative effect on motor vehicle travel and their support of dispersed metropolitan development patterns, which foster additional automobile dependence and thereby increase emissions. Legislation similar to the CAAA has not been passed recently in the energy area. However, in the past decade low gasoline prices, growing motor vehicle ownership, and increased motor vehicle travel have raised transportation's share of total petroleum consumption in the United States and increased U.S. energy dependence on foreign oil sources. Although energy efficiency measures are important, they are not viewed as having the same urgency as measures to improve air quality, nor are energy issues likely to be subjects of litigation when highway expansion projects are proposed.

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EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS: Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use The current concern over the effects of highway building on both the environment and energy use is part of a broader debate over the appropriate direction of metropolitan development and the role of transportation in that process. Many view incremental, evolutionary change as the only realistic and politically feasible course in moving to a less polluting, more energy-efficient transportation system. Others seek major revisions in land use policies and significant increases in the price of motor vehicle travel to promote these goals; they view the CAAA as a strategic instrument for change. The varied approaches reflect different visions of the future; different judgments about the appropriate balance among economic growth, environmental protection, and energy conservation; and different views about the effectiveness of technology versus behavior change for achieving these goals. This study is cognizant of these larger issues, but it is focused on the more practical questions that policy makers and planners face in complying with the CAAA. Its purpose is to review the current state of knowledge, evaluate the scientific evidence, and narrow the areas of disagreement about the impacts of highway capacity additions on traffic flow characteristics, travel demand, land use, vehicle emissions, air quality, and energy use. Its intended audiences are key policy makers in Congress, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), and the Department of Energy; implementers and overseers of the CAAA, including congressional staff, state and local air quality and transportation agencies, and the courts; and the research community. The study, which was initiated by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) Executive Committee, received broad funding support from FHWA; the American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (through the National Cooperative Highway Research Program); EPA; and TRB's Institute for Strategic Transportation Studies, supported by unrestricted grants from the UPS Foundation, the Association of American Railroads, Consolidated Rail Corporation, and Norfolk-Southern Corporation. TRB formed a study panel of 16 experts under the leadership of Paul E. Peterson, Henry Shattuck Professor of Government at Harvard University. The committee includes specialists in travel behavior and travel demand modeling, traffic engineering, vehicle emissions and air quality modeling, motor vehicle fuel economy, transportation and

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EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS: Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use land use, land use modeling, and transportation and air quality planning. Panel members are drawn from universities, state government, metropolitan planning organizations, environmental organizations, and consulting firms. With one exception, the committee endorses all of the report findings and recommendations. One committee member, Michael A. Replogle, agreed with many elements of the report but dissented from some of the key findings. His statement is presented in its entirety as Appendix E. In accord with National Research Council policies, this appendix provides the opportunity for the expression of views not shared by the majority of the committee. That a minority view has been offered is not surprising because the study raises complex and difficult questions that have confounded scholars for decades. The committee wishes to acknowledge the work of many individuals and organizations who contributed to this report. Nancy P. Humphrey managed the study and drafted major portions of the final report under the guidance of the committee and the supervision of Robert E. Skinner, Jr., former Director of Studies and Information Services and current Executive Director of TRB, and Stephen R. Godwin, current Director of Studies and Information Services. Mr. Godwin drafted Chapter 5 and Appendix D. Suzanne Schneider, Assistant Executive Director of TRB, managed the report review process. In accordance with the National Research Council report review procedures, the report was reviewed by an independent group of reviewers. The committee also wishes to thank many individuals outside TRB whose advice it sought in the course of its deliberations. William Schroeer of EPA's Office of Policy, Planning, and Evaluation and John German of the Certification Division of EPA's Office of Mobile Sources provided useful input to the committee on EPA's regulatory policies and on the Federal Test Procedure Review Project, respectively. Greig Harvey of Deakin, Harvey, Skabardonis, Inc., provided the committee with an overview of the recent court case against the Metropolitan Transportation Commission of the San Francisco Bay Area and its implications for conformity analysis requirements and modeling procedures. Finally, Randy Guensler of the Georgia Institute of Technology prepared special analyses, based on his dissertation results, for the discussion of the uncertainty of emission rate estimates from current models contained in Chapter 3.

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EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS: Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use The committee also commissioned several papers to inform its deliberations. The papers are appended to the report to make the information available to a broad audience. The interpretations and conclusions reached in the papers are those of the authors; the key findings endorsed by the committee appear in the main body of the report. Harry S. Cohen of Cambridge Systematics, Inc., prepared a literature review of the effects of highway capacity additions on travel demand. The major findings of that report are included in Chapter 4 with supporting detail in Appendix B. Two papers were commissioned on heavy-duty diesel vehicles, because their response to highway capacity additions differs from that of light-duty vehicles. K. G. Duleep of Energy and Environmental Analysis, Inc., reviewed the emission and energy characteristics of heavy-duty diesel vehicles and provided an assessment of how they might be affected by highway capacity additions. His paper is included in its entirety as Appendix A, and its findings are discussed in Chapter 3. Lance R. Grenzeback of Cambridge Systematics, Inc., examined the likely effect of changes in highway capacity on truck travel. His paper is included as Appendix C, and its findings are discussed in Chapter 4. These two papers make a significant contribution to an area about which little has been written. The final report was edited and prepared for publication under the supervision of Nancy A. Ackerman, Director of Reports and Editorial Services, TRB. Special appreciation is expressed to Luanne Crayton, Norman Solomon, and Lisa Wormser, who edited the report, and to Marguerite Schneider and Frances Holland, who assisted in meetings, logistics, and communications with the committee and provided word processing support for numerous drafts.

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EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS: Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use Contents     Executive Summary   1  1   Introduction   11      Regulatory Context   13      Study Focus   21      Definition of Terms   22      Overview of Impacts   24      Assessment of Impacts   29      Organization of Report   31  2   Contribution of Motor Vehicle Transportation to Air Pollution and Energy Consumption   38      Transportation and Air Quality   38      Transportation and Energy Consumption   61      Modeling Air Quality and Energy Impacts   65      Summary   75  3   Traffic Flow Characteristics   87      Overview of Expected Impacts   87      Review of Effects on Emissions   90      Summary Assessment of Effects on Emissions and Air Quality   122

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EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS: Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use      Review of Effects on Energy Use   124      Summary Assessment and Recommendations for Improving the Knowledge Base   127  4   Travel Demand   138      Determinants of Metropolitan Travel Demand and Recent Travel Trends in the United States   138      Overview of Expected Impacts and Definition of Terms   143      Theoretical Understanding of Travel Choices and Impacts   149      Review of Evidence from Studies   152      Review of Impacts from Travel Demand Models   159      Summary Assessment of the State of Knowledge   162      Review of Impacts on Truck Travel   164      Recommendations for Improving the Knowledge Base   167  5   Land Use and Urban Form   174      Background   176      Theory Linking Transportation and Land Use   183      Empirical Evidence   185      Results from Models   190      Implications of Changes in Population Density for Travel and Emissions   194      Summary   201      Recommendations for Improving the Knowledge Base   203  6   Findings and Conclusions   210      Overview   211      Crosscutting Issues   213      Findings for Individual Impact Areas   215      Summary Assessment of Net Effects   224      Recommendations for Research, Modeling Improvements, and Data Collection   227      Concluding Observations   230

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EXPANDING METROPOLITAN HIGHWAYS: Implications for Air Quality and Energy Use  Appendix A   Emission and Energy Characteristics of Heavy-Duty Diesel-Powered Trucks and Buses K. G. Duleep   237  Appendix B   Review of Empirical Studies of Induced Traffic Harry S. Cohen   295  Appendix C   Impact of Changes in Highway Capacity on Truck Travel Lance R. Grenzeback   310  Appendix D   Review of Studies of Transportation Investments and Land Use   345  Appendix E   Minority Statement of Michael A. Replogle   354     Study Committee Biographical Information   381

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