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Statistical Issues in Defense Analysis and Testing: Summary of a Workshop
Case Study #1
Consideration of the requirement for a new medium-weight antitank system led to development of the Infantry Anti-Armor Weapon System —Medium (AAWS-M, now called the Javelin system). As described by Cyrus Staniec (Appendix B), assessment of the system's cost-effectiveness required evaluation over more than 200 distinct scenarios that reflected the problem's many dimensions. The COEA had to address issues related to the mix and application of other systems on the battlefield. These issues included trade-offs against alternative systems—e.g., heavy antitank weapons and certain air defense weapons (that might also serve an antiarmor role)—and the effects of battlefield countermeasures on the systems under consideration. In addition, the AAWS-M had to be studied in both mechanized force and light infantry contexts, in both offensive and defensive combat, against various types of threats, and in different combat environments (e.g., Europe, Southeast Asia).
The number and nature of cases to be studied required the use of several different combat simulation models with different attributes (e.g., level of resolution, stochastic versus deterministic). Effectiveness was measured in terms of exchange ratios—i.e., enemy versus friendly losses. Point estimates of costs were combined with the effectiveness analysis to draw conclusions.
A number of questions raised by this study are essentially statistical: How to compare results across different scenarios? How to assess the validity of the combat simulation models? How to identify and characterize sensitivity to model assumptions? How to quantify and incorporate uncertainties in cost estimates? How to determine which scenarios are critical in designing operational tests?
Case Study #2
In the context of developmental and operational testing, Charles Horton (Appendix B) described the following case study involving the Sense and Destroy Armor (SADARM) Artillery Munitions:
SADARM is in the class of smart conventional artillery munitions currently being developed by the Army. The primary target of these munitions is a self-propelled howitzer (SPH) (or, possibly, a battery of SPH). The threat SPH is detected when it fires and [is] located by an artillery locating radar, FIREFINDER. There are two packaging variants: a 155mm projectile with two submunitions per projectile, and a Multiple Launched Rocket System (MLRS) with six submunitions per rocket. The submunitions are delivered by their respective carriers, are expelled over an aim point, and, as they fall, use a combination of millimeter wave radar and infared sensors to detect and classify an appropriate target. An explosively formed