Preface

At the request of the U.S. Department of Defense, the Committee on National Statistics, in conjunction with the Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics, held a workshop in September 1992 on statistical modeling, simulation, and operational testing of weapon systems. Defense analysts were invited to write and present background papers and discuss substantive areas in which they sought improvements through application of statistical methods. Statisticians and other participants responded by suggesting alternative approaches to specific problems and identifying program areas that might especially benefit from the application of improved statistical methods. A long-term goal of the project is to foster and develop links between the defense community and the statistical profession.

There is a long and productive history of statisticians working as part the nation's defense effort. Perhaps the best-known example is the Statistical Analysis Group, which operated during World War II; the leading intellects of the then nascent discipline of statistics applied their minds to statistical problems as part of the war effort. The American Statistical Association has organized sessions on defense issues in its recent meetings. We hope that this workshop will be a helpful catalyst in increasing the use of statistical ideas in addressing defense problems. The National Research Council is currently exploring the possibility of conducting a multiyear panel study of statistical methods for testing and evaluating defense systems.

The workshop was sponsored by the Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation, and the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense,



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Statistical Issues in Defense Analysis and Testing: Summary of a Workshop Preface At the request of the U.S. Department of Defense, the Committee on National Statistics, in conjunction with the Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics, held a workshop in September 1992 on statistical modeling, simulation, and operational testing of weapon systems. Defense analysts were invited to write and present background papers and discuss substantive areas in which they sought improvements through application of statistical methods. Statisticians and other participants responded by suggesting alternative approaches to specific problems and identifying program areas that might especially benefit from the application of improved statistical methods. A long-term goal of the project is to foster and develop links between the defense community and the statistical profession. There is a long and productive history of statisticians working as part the nation's defense effort. Perhaps the best-known example is the Statistical Analysis Group, which operated during World War II; the leading intellects of the then nascent discipline of statistics applied their minds to statistical problems as part of the war effort. The American Statistical Association has organized sessions on defense issues in its recent meetings. We hope that this workshop will be a helpful catalyst in increasing the use of statistical ideas in addressing defense problems. The National Research Council is currently exploring the possibility of conducting a multiyear panel study of statistical methods for testing and evaluating defense systems. The workshop was sponsored by the Office of the Director, Operational Test and Evaluation, and the Office of the Assistant Secretary of Defense,

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Statistical Issues in Defense Analysis and Testing: Summary of a Workshop Program Analysis and Evaluation, in the Department of Defense. We are indebted to the efforts of many people who contributed their time and expertise. We would first like to thank the members of the workshop organizing committee, which included Louis Gordon, Donald Rubin, Nancy Spruill, and Miron Straf. We also thank Rebecca Hancock, Helen Lopez, Susanna McFarland, and Flossie Wolf for their assistance in planning the workshop. We are particularly grateful to Michael Cohen, Louis Gordon, and Kathryn Laskey, who prepared draft sections of this report and provided editorial comments. Francisco Samaniego independently prepared a fine, personal summary of the workshop. We refer to his manuscript in our report, which reflects many of his observations. We received extensive and invaluable comments from Ernest Seglie and Nancy Spruill on earlier versions of this report. David Chu and Jim Hodges also provided helpful reviews of draft sections. Rebecca Hancock graciously handled a myriad of administrative and editorial matters with efficient professionalism and spirited enthusiasm. With her departure from the Committee on National Statistics, Anu Pemmarazu capably took on the details of production. It has been a pleasure to work with them in preparing this report. We also wish to thank Eugenia Grohman, associate director for reports of the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, and Christine McShane, editor for the commission, for their editorial work and helpful advice on the presentation of material from the workshop. Finally, we extend our warm thanks to all the workshop presenters, discussants, rapporteurs, and other participants for bringing their positive ideas and energies to the meeting. The workshop played a constructive role in opening a broader dialogue between the Department of Defense and the statistical community, and we hope its success will encourage further collaboration on important work in the future. John E. Rolph, Chair Duane L. Steffey, Study Director Workshop on Statistical Issues in Defense Analysis and Testing