Page 349

Index

A

Acid pollution, 49, 86, 140, 155, 157, 189, 207, 217

Europe, 86, 140, 155, 157

Advanced Research Projects Agency, 300

Aerosols, 84, 86, 210, 217, 248

Aesthetics, 14, 23, 97, 99, 242, 314, 317

Africa, 66

agricultural production, 12-13, 308, 309

desertification, 44

hunger, 33, 45, 47

population, 63

unemployment, 37

urban housing, 35

Agenda 21, see International Conference on an Agenda of Science for Environment and Development into the 21st Century

Agricultural sector, 7, 11, 12-13, 74, 93-95, 96, 191, 196-199, 206-207, 209, 212, 222-223, 307-309, 317

Africa, 12-13, 308, 309

alien species, 77

biotechnology, 13, 94-95, 197, 199, 280, 308, 309

animals, 257-258

consumption data, 70

deforestation, 5, 77, 95-96, 99-100, 101, 215, 313

degradation syndrome, 287

developing countries, 12-13, 308, 309

desertification, 44, 66, 94, 191, 287

diseases linked to irrigation, 99

ecosystem protection, 221, 308-309

employment, 37-38

historical perspectives, 93-94

integrated assessment models, 143

irrigation, 91, 94, 99, 157, 197, 198, 199, 212, 221, 284, 316

market forces, 94, 197

nongovernmental organizations, 12-13, 309

pesticides, 94, 100, 221, 284

pollination, 221

private sector, 308

regional information systems, 156-157

technological factors, general, 13, 74, 94-95, 197, 199, 308;

see also "biotechnology," "irrigation," and ''pesticides" supra

urbanization, 94, 309

see also Food and nutrition; Rural areas



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Page 349 Index A Acid pollution, 49, 86, 140, 155, 157, 189, 207, 217 Europe, 86, 140, 155, 157 Advanced Research Projects Agency, 300 Aerosols, 84, 86, 210, 217, 248 Aesthetics, 14, 23, 97, 99, 242, 314, 317 Africa, 66 agricultural production, 12-13, 308, 309 desertification, 44 hunger, 33, 45, 47 population, 63 unemployment, 37 urban housing, 35 Agenda 21, see International Conference on an Agenda of Science for Environment and Development into the 21st Century Agricultural sector, 7, 11, 12-13, 74, 93-95, 96, 191, 196-199, 206-207, 209, 212, 222-223, 307-309, 317 Africa, 12-13, 308, 309 alien species, 77 biotechnology, 13, 94-95, 197, 199, 280, 308, 309 animals, 257-258 consumption data, 70 deforestation, 5, 77, 95-96, 99-100, 101, 215, 313 degradation syndrome, 287 developing countries, 12-13, 308, 309 desertification, 44, 66, 94, 191, 287 diseases linked to irrigation, 99 ecosystem protection, 221, 308-309 employment, 37-38 historical perspectives, 93-94 integrated assessment models, 143 irrigation, 91, 94, 99, 157, 197, 198, 199, 212, 221, 284, 316 market forces, 94, 197 nongovernmental organizations, 12-13, 309 pesticides, 94, 100, 221, 284 pollination, 221 private sector, 308 regional information systems, 156-157 technological factors, general, 13, 74, 94-95, 197, 199, 308; see also "biotechnology," "irrigation," and ''pesticides" supra urbanization, 94, 309 see also Food and nutrition; Rural areas

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Page 350 Air pollution, 7, 13, 14, 31, 45, 83-87, 188-189, 190, 194, 203, 204, 209, 210-211, 215, 216-219, 237, 250-251, 310 acid pollution, 49, 86, 140, 155, 157, 189, 207, 217 aerosols, 84, 86, 210, 217, 248 carbon dioxide, 84, 166, 204, 207, 209, 210, 217, 219, 220, 248, 250-251 carbon monoxide, 86 chlorofluorocarbons, 41-42, 45, 83-84, 187, 264 developing countries, 87, 166-167 indoor air pollution, 188, 189, 190 integrated assessment models, 139, 140, 218-219 methane, 84, 204, 219 nitrogen oxides, 41, 46, 204, 205, 209, 217 ozone-layer depletion, 4, 7, 10, 16, 41-42, 44, 46, 48, 83-84, 138, 143, 187, 188-189, 190, 237, 248, 264, 281; see also "Chlorofluorocarbons" supra place-based research, 286 regional, 4, 5, 44, 86-87, 139, 140, 218-219, 248-249, 279, 288, 316-317 scenarios, 154 sulfates, 41, 46, 80, 86, 204, 205, 217, 248-249 transboundary, 41, 140 urban areas, 78, 86-87, 195, 217, 316-317 volatile organic compounds, 41, 46, 217 see also Climate; Greenhouse gases Alien species, 77, 96-97, 215, 250-251, 316 ASCEND 21, see International Conference on an Agenda of Science for Environment and Development into the 21st Century Asia, 66, 309 air pollution, 87 economic integration, 75 South and Southeast Asia, 33, 45 urban housing, 35 Assessment methodologies Driving Force-State-Response framework, 242 experts, use of, 136, 137-138, 156-157, 186 integrated assessment models, 5, 49, 139-149, 159, 218-219 interdisciplinary approaches, 10, 11, 17, 18, 135, 136-137, 148, 208, 280, 281-282, 283-285, 289, 296, 298, 301-302, 306, 318 place-based initiatives, 10, 222-223, 279, 285-288, 298, 299, 302 Pressure-State-Response framework, 235-239, 254-255, 260, 261-262 scenarios, 5, 49, 136, 137, 139, 147-154, 156, 158, 161-176, 295 sensitivity analyses, 146, 153 strategic gaming, 138-139 sustainability science, 10-11, 51, 279-288, 318-320 see also Indicators; Uncertainty B Bangladesh, 34 Barbarization, 150, 161 Biodiversity, 4, 13-14, 23, 24, 31, 43, 44, 47, 80, 95, 96-97, 101, 191, 208, 212, 220, 256-258, 281, 286, 312-316 alien species, 77, 96-97, 215, 250-251, 316 see also Endangered species Biogeochemical cycles, 9, 60, 80, 188, 210, 220, 282 see also Pollution Biotechnology, 13, 94-95,197,199, 280, 308, 309 animals, 257-258 Birds, 4, 43, 47, 97 Birth control, see Contraceptives and contraception; Family planning Birth rates, 5, 12, 60, 61, 101, 303-305 see also Family planning Brundtland Commission, 2, 21, 22, 26, 27, 136, 188, 189, 243, 275 air pollution, 203 food and nutrition, 197, 308 funds and financing, 28 ecosystems, 312 materials production and consumption, 200, 206

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Page 351 population growth, 192, 195, 197, 303 sectoral goals, general, 7, 11, 186, 192, 223, 302, 316 sustainable development defined, 23, 25 urban areas, 195, 305 water supply, 212 C Carbon dioxide, 84, 166, 204, 207, 209, 210, 217, 219, 220, 248, 250-251 Carbon monoxide, 86 Carbon tetrachloride, 42 Caring for the Earth, 281 Carnegie Commission, 299 Carrying capacities, 11, 27, 289-290 CGIAR, see Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research Children, 24, 34-35, 38-40, 245 birth rates, 5, 12, 60, 61, 101, 303-305 death rates, 34, 64, 245 family planning, 12, 192, 193, 303-305 UNICEF, 38, 245, 246-247 China, 33, 47, 204 Chlorofluorocarbons, 41-42, 45, 83-84, 187, 264 Circulatory systems, see Planetary circulatory systems CITES, see Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora Cities, see Urban areas Climate, 14, 210-211 El Niño-Southern Oscillation, 77, 88, 93 global change, general, 7, 42, 45, 49, 84-85, 101, 141, 145, 186, 189, 209, 210, 214, 220, 222-223, 237, 279, 281 Framework Convention on Climate Change, 41, 46, 290 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 26, 136, 147, 209, 288, 295-296 World Climate Research Program, 282, 285, 300 see also Greenhouse gases integrated assessment models, 139, 140, 141, 145, 146, 147 place-based research, 286 scenarios, 153, 162, 164, 165-176 Club of Rome, 139 Coastal zones, 88, 90, 98 Commission on Sustainable Development, see United Nations Communications, see Telecommunications Compass and Gyroscope, 30 Computer technology, 74, 75, 235, 249, 311 databases, intellectual property rights, 293-294 Internet, 76, 277 Conference on the Human Environment, 22 Conference on the Transition to Sustainability, 17, 289 Conservation, 8, 99, 256-257, 312-316 ecosystem restoration, 13, 255-258, 261-262, 312-316 fisheries, 89, 90, 207, 313 local inventories, 9 see also Biodiversity; Fish and fisheries; Forests and forestry; Wildlife Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, 299-300 Consumption and consumption patterns, 5, 9, 11, 25, 30-31, 59, 69-71, 80-81, 83, 199-200, 202, 249, 291-292, 303, 309-312 energy resources, 30, 31, 69-71, 174-175, 200, 263-264, 292, 303 materials, general, 30, 31, 69, 70-71, 80-81, 199-201, 262, 303 scenarios, 152 technology and, 69-70, 72 water, 90-91, 92, 212-214; see also Drinking water; Irrigation Contraception and contraceptives, 12, 193, 304-305 see also Family planning Conventional Worlds, 150, 151, 152, 161 Convention for the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping from Ships and Aircraft, 43 Convention for the Regulation of Whaling, 43

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Page 352 Convention on Biological Diversity, 44 Convention on Fishing and Conservation of the Living Resources of the High Seas, 43, 46 Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, 44 Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution, 41, 140 Convention on the Conservation of Migratory species of Wild Animals, 43 Convention on the Prevention of Marine Pollution by Dumping of Wastes and Other Matter, 43 Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes, 41 Convention on the Protection of birds, 43 Convention on Wetlands of International Importance Especially as Water-fowl Habitat, 44 Coral reefs, 89, 97-98 Critical loads, 11, 41, 249, 252-254, 289-290 Cultural factors, 24, 98 aesthetics, 14, 23, 97, 99, 242, 314, 317 endangered species, 23, 25 ethical and moral considerations, 14, 23, 32, 97 globalization, 76, 78 integrated assessment models, 143 regional information systems, 157 scenarios, 152 see also Political factors; Social factors Current Forces and Trends, 161-164, 165-166, 167-176 D Death rates, 5, 60, 61, 101, 192 children/infants, 34, 64, 245 Decarbonization, 13, 137, 262, 291, 310 Degradation syndrome, 287 Demographic factors, 17, 81, 101 elderly persons, 303 integrated assessment models, 143 local inventories of landscapes and ecosystems, 9 scenarios, 162 see also Birth rates; Children; Death rates; Gender factors; Population growth; Rural areas; Urban areas Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 318 Department of Defense, ARPA, 300 Desertification, 44, 66, 94, 191, 287 Developing countries, 1, 15, 18, 22, 30 African agricultural sector, 12-13, 308, 309 agriculture, other, 94 air pollution, 87, 166-167 children, 34-35 disasters, 33, 40, 94, 189 economic inequality within, 69 employment, 37, 76 energy production, 204 GDP, 67 globalization, 27, 76 Human Development Index, 64 private sector investment, 28, 195 urban areas, 35, 36, 39, 83, 195-196 water supply, 92; see also Drinking water Disasters, 4, 38, 100, 150, 188, 189, 191, 287 famine, 33, 40, 94 see also Surprises, environmental Diseases and disorders, 5, 40, 60, 65-66, 101, 189, 191, 193-194, 200 children, 34, 40 emergence and reemergence, 5, 66, 99-100, 101, 187, 250-251 fertility and, 304 indoor air pollution, 188, 189, 190 plant and animal, 82 water-related, 93, 99 see also Death rates DIVERSITAS program, 281 Drinking water, 5, 12, 31, 35, 36, 39, 40-41, 64, 83, 90-93, 188, 190, 195, 196, 245 see also Sanitation Driving Force-State-Response framework, 242

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Page 353 E Earth Summit, see "Conference on Environment and Development" under United Nations Earth Transformed, 80 Eco-communalism, 152 Ecological Principles for Economic Development, 280-281 Economic factors, 8, 25, 31, 43, 240-241, 263 European integration, 75, 235, 299 fertility, 303, 304 GDP, 64, 67, 69, 70, 170-171, 234, 260 GNP, 75 global connectedness, 4-5, 11, 30, 59, 75-79, 101, 153, 186, 283, 291 indicators, general, 237, 260; see also specific indicators input-output analyses, 13, 71, 206, 311 integrated assessment models, 139, 142, 143, 144, 146-147 market forces, 11, 60, 76, 94, 197, 202, 205, 307 national capital accounts, 9, 237, 242, 259, 261, 313 per capita income, 64 R&D investment, 16, 28, 300-301, 315 regional information systems, 157 scenarios, 148, 150-152, 162, 163-165 taxation, 203 urban areas, 195, 306-307 wealth disparities, 5, 69, 71, 78, 101, 163, 165, 168, 195 see also Consumption and consumption patterns; Developing countries; Employment; Funding; Poverty Ecosystems, 5, 44, 83, 97-99, 101, 206-208, 220-221, 250-251, 256-258, 286 agricultural, protection of, 221, 308-309 carrying capacities, 11, 27, 289-290 coastal, 88, 90, 98 coral reefs, 89, 97-98 critical loads, 11, 41, 249, 252-254, 289-290 degradation syndrome, 287 desertification, 44, 66, 94, 191, 287 ecosystem services, 13-14, 23, 67, 97-98, 101, 255, 306, 313 environmental hazards, 188 fisheries, 89, 90 freshwater, 41-42, 46, 97-98, 211, 214 global targets, 4 human domination, 80-81, 101, 313-314 integrated assessment models, 143 local inventories, 9 regional, 6, 9, 158, 287, 290 restoration, 13, 255-258, 261-262, 312-316 wetlands, 41-42, 44, 46, 97-98, 215 see also Biodiversity Education, 7, 12, 25, 29, 31, 36-37, 48, 192, 237 family planning, 305 gender disparities, 36, 39 employment and, 74 international targets, 4, 38, 39 learning disabilities, 34 lifelong learning, 66 literacy, 36-37, 39, 64 mass media, 27, 28, 33 school enrollment ratios, 64 see also Social learning Elderly persons, 303 El Niño-Southern Oscillation, 77, 88, 93 EMEP, see Geneva Protocol on Long-term Financing of the Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe Employment, 4, 37-38, 39, 66, 75, 192, 201-202 Africa, 37 developing countries, 37, 76 fertility and, 305 globalization and, 75-76 hours of work, 74, 75 minimum wage, 37 Endangered species, 4, 5, 23, 43-44, 97, 99, 256 cultural factors, 23, 25 extinction, 96, 101 Endangered Species Act, 256 Energy resources, 7-8, 11, 13, 26, 31, 75, 80, 203-206, 212, 302, 309-312 automobiles, energy-efficient, 310 consumption patterns, 30, 31, 69-71, 174-175, 200, 263-264, 292, 303

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Page 354 globalization, 76, 77 historical perspectives, 70, 264 household efficiency, 13 incentives, 201, 311-312 place-based research, 286 private sector, 311-312 recycling and reuse of materials, 201 regional information systems, 157, 158 scenarios, 174-175 taxation, 203 technological factors, 13, 72, 203-207, 310-312 water supply and, 93 ENSO, see El Niño-Southern Oscillation Environmental hazards, 185-192, 263, 282, 287 see also Surprises, environmental Environmental Protection Agency, 188-189 Equity, 2, 25, 166, 172 education, gender disparities, 36, 39 wealth disparities, 5, 69, 71, 78, 101, 163, 165, 168, 195 Ethical and moral considerations, 14, 23, 32, 97 Europe, 250-251, 293, 296, 299 acid pollution, 86, 140, 155, 157 birth/death rates, 61 critical loads, 290 economic integration, 75, 235, 299 homelessness, 35 hunger, 47 unemployment, 37 urbanization, 62-63, 195 Exotic species, see Alien species Expertise, 136, 137-138, 156-157, 186 F Family planning, 12, 192, 193, 303-305 see also Contraceptives and contraception Famine, 33, 40, 94 FAO, see UN Food and Agricultural Organization Federal government, 239, 240-241, 242, 299, 300, 302 defense technology, 72, 300 endangered species legislation, 256 Environmental Protection Agency, 188-189 fisheries protection legislation, 89 Forest Service, 318 Fertility, see Birth rates Fish and fisheries, 4, 5, 46, 87, 88-90, 101, 191, 207, 313 marine mammals, 4, 43, 46, 97, 316 Food and nutrition, 4, 32-33, 39, 92, 190, 196-199, 307-309 children, 29, 34-35, 245 famine, 33, 40, 94 hunger, 4, 13, 31, 32-33, 40, 45, 47, 48, 94, 101, 161-176, 196-197, 246-247, 306, 307-308 indicators, 245, 246-247 production, general, 7, 70; see also Agricultural sector toxins, 200 transportation, 77 Forests and forestry, 60, 80, 95, 98, 101, 191, 207, 318 tropical deforestation, 5, 77, 95-96, 99-100, 101, 215, 313 Framework Convention on Climate Change, 41, 46, 290 Funding, 16, 28, 300-301, 315 G Gaming techniques, see Strategic gaming techniques GDP, see Gross Domestic Product Gender factors, 36, 39, 64-65, 74, 305 Genetic engineering, see Biotechnology Geneva Protocol on Long-term Financing of the Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe, 250-251 German Advisory Council on Global Change, 137, 287, 288 German Enquette Commissions, 136 Global Environmental Outlook 2000, 27 Global Environment Facility, 28, 315 Global Scenario Group, 150-153, 159, 161-176 Great Transition, 150, 152, 161 Greenhouse gases, 4, 5, 7, 13, 44, 46, 84-85, 101, 138, 203-204, 209, 210, 211, 217-219, 248

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Page 355 decarbonization, 13, 137, 262, 291, 310 integrated assessment models, 141, 146-147 scenarios, 153, 162, 164, 165-176 temporal factors, 43, 84 see also Carbon dioxide; Carbon monoxide; Methane Gross Domestic Product, 64, 67, 69, 70, 170-171, 234, 260 Gross National Product, 75 H Harvard Water Program, 156 Hazards, see Environmental hazards HFCs, see Hydro fluorocarbons Health issues, 7, 24, 192, 193-194, 200, 208, 237 children, 34-35, 40, 64, 245 indoor air pollution, 188, 189, 190 life expectancy, 64, 65-66 quality of life, 24, 25, 74 sanitation, 35, 36, 39, 83, 195-196, 245 see also Birth rates; Death rates; Diseases and disorders; Drinking water; Food and nutrition Historical perspectives, 15-16, 18-19, 59-101, 196, 237 agricultural land use, 93-94 air pollution, 205 carrying capacities, 289-290 demographic transition, 61-67, 101 energy consumption, 70, 264 environmental surprises, 263-264 GDP, 67-68, 69 integrated assessment models, 139-140, 144-145 regional information systems, 155-157 scenarios, 149 sustainability science, 279, 280-283, 319 sustainable development, concept, 2, 21, 22-23, 26-29, 275, 280-282 technological development, 71-73, 282-283 water consumption, 90-91 well-being trends (HDI), 64 Homeless persons, 35-36, 66 Hours of work, 74, 75 Households, 83 energy efficiency, 13 GDP accounting for value of family work in, 67 hunger, 45 Housing, 31, 35-36, 39, 48, 66, 237 homeless persons, 35-36, 66 indicators, 245 international targets, 4 urban areas, 12, 35 Human Development Index, 64 Hunger and Carbon Reduction, 161, 165-176 Hydro fluorocarbons, 209, 210 I Incentives, 3, 11 energy and materials use, 201, 311-312 technological development, 11, 292-293 India, 34, 189, 305 Indicators, general, 3, 5-6, 8-10, 11, 19, 50, 82, 233-265, 294-295, 315 defined, 233-234, 249 Driving Force-State-Response framework, 242 food and nutrition, 245, 246-247 life support systems, 234, 240 Pressure-State-Response model, 235-239, 254-255, 260, 261-262 regional factors, 9, 237, 243, 248-254 social learning, 264-265 see also specific indicators (e.g., Birth rates; Gross Domestic Product) Industrial sector, see Materials issues Infant mortality, 64 Information technology, see Computer technology Input-output analyses, 13, 71, 206, 311 Institutional factors, general, 3-4, 24, 133, 139, 240, 311 agricultural sector, 309 categorization of perturbations, 8 fisheries, 90 globalization, 31, 79 industrial organization, 73 interdisciplinary approaches, 10, 11, 17, 18, 135, 136-137, 148, 208, 280, 281-282, 283-285, 289, 296, 298, 301-302, 306, 318

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Page 356 national capital accounts, 242, 259, 261 regional information systems, 154, 155 research initiatives, 288, 293-294, 298, 299-300 urban areas, 306, 307 Integrated assessment models, 5, 49, 139-147, 159 air pollution, general, 139, 140, 218-219 climate change, 139, 140, 141, 145, 146-147 described, 6, 139, 143 economic factors, 139, 142, 143, 144, 146-147 greenhouse gases, 141, 146-147 international agreements and conferences, general, 6, 146, 159 list of models and modellers, 141-142 local factors, 145, 146 regional factors, 139-143 (passim), 145, 146, 154 scenarios vs, 148-149 social factors, 6, 140, 144-145 summary characterizations of specific models, 143 uncertainty, 141, 143, 144 Intellectual property, 293-294 see also Technology transfer InterAcademy Panel on International Issues, 17, 289 Interdisciplinary approaches, 10, 11, 135, 136-137, 208, 280, 281-282, 283-285, 289, 296, 298, 301-302, 306, 318 report at hand, 17, 18 scenarios, 148 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 26, 136, 147, 209, 288, 295-296 International agreements and conferences, general, 2, 3, 4, 9, 26, 28, 31, 256, 281, 288-289 integrated assessment models, 6, 146, 159 see also Nongovernmental organizations; specific agreements, conferences, and organizations International Conference on an Agenda of Science for Environment and Development into the 21st Century, 26-29 (passim), 288 freshwater, 41, 46 International Conference on Nutrition, 40 International Convention for the Regulation of Whaling, 43 International Council for Science, 29, 282, 288, 289 International Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation Decade, 36 International Geosphere-Biosphere Program, 208, 282, 285, 287, 288, 300 International Human Dimensions Program, 208, 282, 285, 288, 300 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 139 International Monetary Fund, 250-251 International Organization for Standardization, 311 Internet, 76, 277 Invasive species, see Alien species Irrigation, 91, 94, 99, 157, 197, 198, 199, 212, 284, 316 K Kyoto Protocol, 41, 42, 46, 164 L Landscapes, 13, 50, 91, 99, 206, 216, 221, 244, 254, 282, 287, 302, 314, 317 aesthetics, 14, 23, 97, 99, 242, 314, 317 Latin America, 66, 309 air pollution, 87 hunger, 47 urban housing, 35 Life expectancy, 64, 65-66 Life support systems, 3, 7, 8, 9, 13, 18, 23, 24, 31-32, 40-45, 101, 188, 275, 276 critical loads and carrying capacities, 11, 27, 41, 249, 252-254, 289-290 indicators, 234, 240 local impacts, 5, 31 quantitative targets, 4

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Page 357 regional impacts, 31 scenarios, general, 295 war, 30 see also Agricultural sector; Ecosystems; Energy resources; Food and nutrition; Materials issues; Wildlife Limits to Growth, 139, 149 Literacy, 36-37, 39, 64 Local factors, 29, 98, 300 air pollution, 86 degradation syndrome, 287 global scale and, 2,187 indicators, 249-250 integrated assessment models, 145, 146 inventories of productive landscapes and ecosystems, 9 place-based initiatives, 10, 222-223, 279, 285-288, 298, 299, 302 scenarios, 153-154 surprises, 188 M Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, 89 Marine environment, 31, 42-43, 46, 87-90, 210-211 coastal zones, 88, 90, 98 coral reefs, 89, 97-98 ocean dumping, 4, 43, 44-45 sanctuaries, 44 see also Fish and fisheries Marine mammals, 4, 43, 46, 97, 316 Market forces, 11, 202, 205, 307 agricultural sector, 94, 197 globalization, 11, 60, 75-76 Mass media, 27, 28, 33 Materials issues, 13, 31, 199-203, 282-283, 291, 309-312 consumption patterns, 30, 31, 69, 70-71, 80-81, 199-201, 262, 303 globalization, 76 incentives, 201, 311-312 material balance modeling, 13 private sector, 311-312 substitution of services for products, 13, 75 see also Waste and waste management Methane, 84, 204, 219 Methyl bromide, 42 Methyl chloroform, 42 Migration (human), 76-77, 78, 79, 153, 249 Migratory species, 4, 43, 47 Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer, 41, 46 Moral considerations, see Ethical and moral considerations Mortality rates, see Death rates Multidisciplinary approach, see Interdisciplinary approach N National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 282 National capital accounts, 9, 237, 242, 259, 261, 313 National Climate Impact Assessment, 146 National Science Foundation, 300 Natural resources, general, 20, 188, 191, 206-208, 237, 240, 250-253 concept of, 23 place-based research, 286 see also Conservation; Ecosystems; Energy resources; Forests and forestry; Landscapes; Marine environment; Wildlife Netherlands Environmental Policy Performance Indicators Adriaanse, 240 New Sustainability Paradigm, 152 Nitrogen oxides, 41, 46, 204, 205, 209, 210, 217-218, 248-249 Nongovernmental organizations, general, 2, 22, 29, 79, 236 Africa agricultural production, 12-13, 309 see also specific organizations North America, 318 Columbia Basin, 157-158, 296, 318 economic integration, 75 endangered species, 97 homelessness, 35 Northwest Power Planning Council, 157-158 Nutrition, see Food and nutrition

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Page 358 O Oceans, see El Niño-Southern Oscillation; Fish and fisheries; Marine environment Office of Management and Budget, 299 Office of Science and Technology Policy, 299 Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development, 47, 67, 86, 163-167 (passim) Our Common Future, 22, 28, 189 Ozone layer depletion, 4, 7, 16, 41-42, 44, 46, 48, 83-84, 138, 143, 188-189, 190, 237, 248, 264, 281 chlorofluorocarbons, 41-42, 45, 83-84, 187, 264 surprise diagnosis, 10, 187 P Pakistan, 34 Parametric analyses, 146 Pesticides, 94, 100, 221, 284 Place-based initiatives, 10, 222-223, 279, 285-288, 298, 299, 302 Planetary circulatory systems, 9, 248-249, 250 Policy assessments, 9, 10, 16, 139, 260, 261-262, 295-296 experts, use of, 136, 137-138, 156-157, 186 integrated assessment models, 5, 49, 139-149, 159, 218-219 interdisciplinary approaches, 10, 11, 17, 18, 135, 136-137, 148, 208, 280, 281-282, 283-285, 289, 296, 298, 301-302, 306, 318 place-based initiatives, 10, 222-223, 279, 285-288, 298, 299, 302 scenarios, 5, 49, 136, 137, 139, 147-154, 156, 158, 161-176, 295 strategic gaming, 138-139 sustainability science, 10-11, 51, 279-288, 318-320 see also Uncertainty Political factors, 7, 9, 16, 30, 299 democratization, 5, 22, 60 global, 2, 18 legitimacy, 134, 135 mass media, 27, 28, 33 regional information systems, 156-157 scenarios, 151-152, 153 surprises, 188 sustainable development concept, 2, 22, 27, 275 urban areas, 306-307 Pollution, 5, 27, 30-31, 60, 80, 101, 138, 188, 190, 202, 210-211, 237 GDP accounting, 67 global connectedness and, 77 pesticides, 94, 100, 221, 284 regional, 60 transboundary, 41, 140 see also Air pollution; Waste and waste management; Water pollution Population growth, 1, 7, 11, 15, 61-62, 91, 186, 192-194, 249, 276 age distributions, 303, 304 birth rates, 5, 12, 60, 61, 101, 303-305 Brundtland Commission, 192, 195, 197, 303 child health and, 34 coastal areas, 88 death rates, 5, 60, 61, 101, 192 children/infants, 34, 64, 245 elderly persons, 303 family planning, 12, 192, 193, 303-305 hunger and, 33, 196-197 life expectancy, 64, 65-66 migration, 76-77, 78, 79, 153, 249 poverty and, 27, 192 projections, 1, 4, 12, 30, 61-62, 66, 70, 71, 163, 192, 193, 303, 304, 307 regional population distribution, 47, 163, 169 urbanization, 4-5, 12, 62-64, 194-196, 305-307 Poverty, 4, 15, 18, 31, 32, 48, 64, 101, 237, 306 Driving Force-State-Response framework, 242 GDP and, 67 homeless persons, 35-36, 66 hunger, trends, 4, 13, 31, 32-33, 40, 45, 163, 246-247, 306 indicators, 246-247 minimum wage, 37 population growth and, 27, 192

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Page 359 Pressure-State-Response model, 236, 238 scenarios, 163, 165 shelter, 35-37, 66 see also Developing countries Pressure-State-Response model, 235-239, 254-255, 260, 261-262 Private sector, 29 agricultural production, 308 contraceptives, 304 developing countries, investment in, 28, 195 energy and materials issues, 311-312 food production, 197 research, 300-301, 315 Public goods, 293 Q Quality of life, 24, 25, 74 life expectancy, 64, 65-66 literacy, 36-37, 39, 64 see also Recreation R Radioactive wastes, 4, 44-45 RAINS, see Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation Ramsar, see Convention on Wetlands of International Importance Especially as Waterfowl Habitat Recreation, 16, 23, 88, 90, 208, 215, 216, 237, 242, 287 aesthetics, 14, 23, 97, 99, 242, 314, 317 Recycling and reuse of waste, 7, 13, 72, 83, 92, 201, 254-255, 310-311 Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation, 139, 140, 146 Regional factors, 25, 29, 60, 83, 139, 187, 221, 302, 316-317 air pollution, 4, 5, 86, 139, 140, 218-219, 248-249, 279, 288 comprehensive accounting frameworks, 138 degradation syndrome, 287 GDP, 67-68, 170-171 fishing stocks, 4 forests, 5 hunger and population, 47 indicators, 9, 237, 243, 248-254 integrated assessment models, 139-143 (passim), 145, 146, 154 global initiatives and, 2 place-based initiatives, 10, 222-223, 279, 285-288, 298, 299, 302 population distribution, 47, 163, 169 scenarios, 169-174, 176 social learning, 6, 49, 158-159 unsustainablity, 81-82 critical loads, 11, 41, 249, 252-254, 289-290 water resources, 91, 93, 101, 216 zones of critical vulnerability, 9, 250-251 see also Ozone layer depletion Regional information systems, 5, 49, 154-159 agriculture, 156-157 described, 6, 154 energy resources, 157, 158 institutional factors, 154, 155 integrated assessment modeling and, 154 political factors, 156-157 scenarios and, 154, 156, 158 temporal factors, 158-159 Resources for the Future, 138 Rome Declaration on World Food Security, 33 Royal Society of London, 69 Rural areas, 37, 212, 287, 291, 306 see also Agricultural sector S Sanitation, 35, 36, 39, 83, 195-196, 245 see also Drinking water Scenarios, 5, 49, 136, 139, 147-154, 161-176, 295 climate change, 153, 162, 164, 165-176 described, 6, 137 economic factors, 148, 150-152, 162, 163-165 energy resources, 174-175 Global Scenario Group, 150-153, 159, 161-176 integrated assessment models vs, 148-149

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Page 360 local factors, 153-154 political factors, 151-152, 153 poverty, 163, 165 regional factors, general, 169-174, 176 regional information systems and, 154, 156, 158 social factors, 148, 149, 150-151, 168 spatial factors, 140, 150, 153, 154 technological factors, 162, 164 temporal factors, 150, 152, 164, 166, 169-176 urban areas, 163, 164 Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment, 243, 282 Sensitivity analyses, 146, 153 Service sector, 309-310 national capital accounts, 242 substitution of services for products, 13, 75, 310-311 Sex-based factors, see Gender factors Shell International Petroleum Company, 149 Shelter, see Drinking water; Housing; Sanitation Silent Spring, 137 Social factors, 7-11 (passim), 16, 24, 25, 83, 160, 240-241, 276, 282, 308, 313 aesthetics, 14, 23, 97, 99, 242, 314, 317 degradation syndrome, 287 ethical and moral considerations, 14, 23, 32, 97 gender factors, 36, 39, 64-65 global connectedness, 4-5, 11, 30, 59, 75-79, 101, 153, 186, 283 integrated assessment models, 6, 140, 144-145 International Human Dimensions Program, 208, 282, 285, 288, 300 mass media, 27, 28, 33 national capital accounts, 242 place-based initiatives, 10, 222-223, 279, 285-288, 298, 299, 302 population growth, family choice, 192; see also Family planning Pressure-State-Response model, 235-239, 254-255, 260, 261-262 regional information systems, 154, 155, 156 regional zones of critical vulnerability, 9, 250-254 research linked to, 11, 282-284, 298-299 scenarios, 148, 149, 150-151, 168 social capital, 25, 188 surprises, 188, 264 technology and, 74, 75 see also Cultural factors; Demographic factors; Political factors Social learning, 3, 21, 48-51, 133, 160, 277 indicators, 264-265 nutrition, 40 regional, 6, 49, 158-159 spatial factors, 48, 49, 50, 83, 194, 255 surprises, 188, 264 sustainability science, 279-280 temporal factors, 48, 49, 255 see also Education; Indicators South and Southeast Asia, 33, 45, 47, 67 Spatial factors, 14, 219, 222, 243, 244, 255, 258, 265, 293, 318 ecosystem services, 255 environmental hazards, 186 health institutions, 194 housing, 35-36 indicators, 50 place-based initiatives, 10, 222-223, 279, 285-288, 298, 299, 302 planetary circulation systems, 248 regional information systems, 155 scenarios, 140, 150, 153, 154 social learning, 48, 49, 50, 83, 194, 255 space conditioning, 292 surprises, 188 urban areas, 239 see also Landscapes; Local factors; Regional factors; Regional information systems Stakeholders, 136, 145, 158 Statistical analyses, 136 integrated assessment models, 143 scenarios, 153 see also Indicators Stewardship, 23 Strategic gaming techniques, 138-139 Sulfates, 41, 46, 80, 86, 204, 205, 217, 248-249 Surprises, environmental, 9-10, 137, 187-188, 260, 263-264

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Page 361 diseases, emergence and reemergence, 5, 66, 99-100, 101, 187, 250-251 ozone layer depletion, 10, 187 social learning, 188, 264 see also Disasters; Environmental hazards Sustainability, general, 1-3, 6-7, 279 defined, 1, 2, 9, 21, 22-26 historical perspectives, 2, 21, 22-23, 26-29, 275, 280-282 political factors, 2, 22, 27, 275 social learning, 279-280 sustainability science, 10-11, 51, 279-288, 318-320 Sustainable Biosphere Initiative, 281 Sustainable Seattle project, 240-242, 254-255 SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training, 285, 288, 300, 302 T Taxation, 203 Technological factors, 2, 7, 14, 16, 17-18, 51, 71-75, 160, 202, 237, 275, 276, 282, 296-298, 300, 302, 311 Agricultural sector, 13, 74, 94-95, 197, 199, 308; see also Biotechnology; Irrigation; Pesticides computer technology, 74, 75, 235, 249, 311 databases, intellectual property rights, 293-294 Internet, 76, 277 consumption patterns, 69-70, 72 contraception, 305 defense technology, 72, 300 developed/developing countries gap, 27 disease and, 66 education, 29 energy, 13, 72, 203-207, 310-312 global connectedness, 4-5, 30, 59, 75, 101, 186, 283 historical perspectives, 71-73, 282-283 incentives, 11, 292-293 Internet, 76, 277 planetary circulatory systems, 9 scenarios, 162, 164 social factors, 74, 75 surprises, 187-188 telecommunications, 72, 74, 76, 249, 277 transboundary water pollution, 41 transportation, 72, 75, 77, 204 water management, 214, 216; see also Irrigation Technology transfer, 3, 16, 293-294, 296-298 intellectual property issues, 293-294 Teeming with Life, 281 Telecommunications, 72, 74, 76, 249 Internet, 76, 277 Temporal factors, 3, 7, 8, 38, 293, 295 birth/death rates, 61 connectedness, 72, 74, 76, 101 consumption, 71 ecosystem services, 255 environmental hazards, 186, 187, 188 greenhouse gases, 43, 84 hunger/famine, 33, 40, 164 regional information system, 158-159 scenarios, 150, 152, 164, 166, 169-176 social learning, 48, 49, 255 sustainability concept, general, 26 see also Historical perspectives Transboundary pollution, 41, 140 Transportation technology, 72, 75, 77, 204 Tropical regions, deforestation, 5, 77, 95-96, 99-100, 101, 215, 313 U Unfinished Business, 188 Urban areas, 4-5, 7, 11, 12, 31, 35, 83, 101, 194-196, 206-207, 212, 237, 250-251, 254-255, 291, 305-307 agricultural land displaced, 94, 309 air pollution, 78, 86-87, 195, 217, 316-317 Brundtland Commission, 195, 305 developing countries, 35, 36, 39, 83, 195-196 economic factors, 195, 306-307 Europe, 62-63, 195 globalization, 77, 78 housing, 12, 35 institutional factors, 306, 307 migration to, 77, 78, 79 place-based research, 286

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Page 362 political factors, 306-307 pollution, 77, 195, 220 population growth, 4-5, 12, 62-64, 194-196, 305-307 scenarios, 163, 164 transition to urban life, 12, 62-64 Uncertainty, 3, 6, 26, 135-138 (passim), 187, 211 climate change, 84 fisheries, 89 integrated assessment models, 141, 143, 144 see also Surprises, environmental United Nations, 294, 298 Commission on Sustainable Development, 26-27, 28, 239, 240-243, 288 Conference on Environment and Development (Earth Summit), 2, 22, 26-27, 28, 29, 164, 288-289 Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat II), 35-36, 39 Convention of Combat Desertification in those Countries Experiencing Serious Drought and/or Desertification, Particularly in Africa, 44 Convention on the Law of the Sea, 42-43, 46 Department for Policy Coordination and Sustainable Development, 59 Development Program, 64, 247, 299 Environment Program, 27, 188, 208, 299-300 FAO, 245, 247, 299 hunger, data on, 33, 45, 165 Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment, 243 System of National Accounts, 259 UNCHS, 245 UNESCO, 289, 316 UNICEF, 38, 245, 246-247 V Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer, 41 Volatile organic compounds, 41, 46, 217 W War and armed conflicts, 30, 78, 79, 287 Waste and waste management, 7, 11, 13, 200-202, 287, 310-311 ocean dumping, 4, 43, 44-45 radioactive wastes, 4, 44-45 see also Recycling and reuse of waste Water pollution, 4, 14, 42-43, 46, 91, 188, 189, 190, 191, 193-194, 195, 210-211, 212, 215, 237 acid pollution, 49, 86, 140, 155, 157, 189, 207, 217 fisheries, impact on, 89 place-based research, 286 sanitation, 35, 36, 39, 83, 195-196, 245 transboundary, 41, 140 see also Marine environment Water supply, 7,14, 80-81, 90-93, 157, 186, 209, 212-216, 284 consumption patterns, 90-91, 92, 212-214 developing countries, 92 drinking water, 5, 12, 31, 35, 36, 39, 40-41, 64, 83, 90-93, 188, 190, 195, 196, 245 irrigation, 91, 94, 99, 157, 197, 198, 199, 212, 221, 284, 316 regional factors, 91, 93, 101, 216 technological factors, 214, 216; see also Irrigation Wealth disparities, 5, 69, 71, 78, 101, 163, 165, 168, 195 Wetlands, 41-42, 44, 46, 97-98, 215 WGBU, see German Advisory Council on Global Change Wildlife, 23, 43, 96-99, 256-258 alien species, 77, 96-97 birds, 4, 43, 47, 97 extinction, 96, 101 migratory species, 4, 43, 47 see also Biodiversity; Endangered species; Fish and fisheries; Marine mammals World Bank, 40, 45, 240-241, 242-243, 259, 299 World Business Council on Sustainable Development, 149 World Climate Research Program, 282, 285, 300

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Page 363 World Commission on Environment and Development, see Brundtland Commission World Conference on Education for All, 36, 39 World Conservation and Monitoring Centre, 250-251 World Conservation Strategy, 16, 22, 280-81 The World Environment: 1972-1982, 189 World Food Summit, 32, 39, 40 World Health Organization, 36, 39, 195, 245, 250-251 World Meteorological Organization, 282 World Summit for Children, 35, 36-40 (passim) World Summit for Social Development, 39 World 3 model, 149 World Wide Web, see Internet