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2
Trends and Transitions

This chapter explores some major historical trends and transitions that might significantly affect the prospects for sustainability over the next half-century. It addresses trends in human development and the earth's environment, and also the interactions between them. In the first part of this chapter, we look at directions in human development, especially the increasing connectedness of economies, peoples, and technologies; the persisting and even growing human diversity in modern cities; the changing patterns of consumption; the emergence of human development as a significant biogeochemical force; and the basic trends in population, economy, resource use, and pollution. In the second part, the chapter traces trends in the transformation of life support systems at local and regional scales, through trends in human-induced changes of atmosphere and climate, oceans, freshwater, land, species and ecosystems, and disease organisms and their vectors.

The trends discussed here are not always constant over time. Instead, long periods of relative constancy are sometimes interspersed with shorter episodes of rapid change. Early in these episodes, changes are often accelerating and may appear exponential. Later, as the episode runs its course or feedbacks cut in, these changes tend to decelerate and may even reverse direction. In between come periods of transition, marked by breaks or inflections in the long-term trends.1 In its examination of critical trends in global change, the United Nations' Department for Policy Coordination and Sustainable Development defines transitions as gradual and continuous shifts in society from one state to another.2



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Page 59 2 Trends and Transitions This chapter explores some major historical trends and transitions that might significantly affect the prospects for sustainability over the next half-century. It addresses trends in human development and the earth's environment, and also the interactions between them. In the first part of this chapter, we look at directions in human development, especially the increasing connectedness of economies, peoples, and technologies; the persisting and even growing human diversity in modern cities; the changing patterns of consumption; the emergence of human development as a significant biogeochemical force; and the basic trends in population, economy, resource use, and pollution. In the second part, the chapter traces trends in the transformation of life support systems at local and regional scales, through trends in human-induced changes of atmosphere and climate, oceans, freshwater, land, species and ecosystems, and disease organisms and their vectors. The trends discussed here are not always constant over time. Instead, long periods of relative constancy are sometimes interspersed with shorter episodes of rapid change. Early in these episodes, changes are often accelerating and may appear exponential. Later, as the episode runs its course or feedbacks cut in, these changes tend to decelerate and may even reverse direction. In between come periods of transition, marked by breaks or inflections in the long-term trends.1 In its examination of critical trends in global change, the United Nations' Department for Policy Coordination and Sustainable Development defines transitions as gradual and continuous shifts in society from one state to another.2

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Page 60 We live in an era of such transitions, which are under way to varying degrees in specific places and regions around the globe. In the social realm, the transitions that seem most relevant to sustainability include the demographic transitions from high to low birth and death rates; the health transition from early death by infectious diseases to late death by cancer, heart attack, and stroke; the economic transition from state to market control; the civil society transition from single-party, military, or state-run institutions to multiparty politics and a rich mix of nongovernmental institutions. Environmentally, some of the more significant transitions or breaks in trends in specific regions include shifts from the dominance of particular biogeochemical cycles by natural forces to their dominance by human releases, from increasing to decreasing rates of emissions for specific pollutants, and from deforestation to reforestation. How should societies think of the relationship between major trends or transitions and sustainability? A series of seven interlinked transitions to a more sustainable world has been identified.3 These were later elaborated and amplified4 as demographic, technological, economic, social, institutional, ideological, and informational transitions. For the most part, the researchers present these transitions as requirements for a more sustainable world: if each individual transition is completed successfully the result will constitute a transition to sustainability. We take a different tack in this study. In Chapter 1 we argued that the path for a transition toward sustainability could not be charted in advance. Instead, we suggested that it would have to be navigated adaptively through trial-and-error experimentation. We remain unconvinced that any specific set of trends or transitions constitutes necessary or sufficient conditions for sustainability. Yet we think that the triad of goals set out in Chapter 1—meeting human needs, preserving life support systems, reducing hunger and poverty—would guide the successful navigation of a transition toward sustainability over the next two generations. Knowledge of trends and emerging transitions may well prove helpful in attaining these goals; societies must first know the directions of present trajectories in the environment and development. Thus, we begin with trends in human development, then turn to the environmental transformations that have been influenced by human actions, emphasizing the interconnectedness of human development and the environment and the needed shifts in trends for attaining a sustainable future. Specialized studies, named in the text that follows, have addressed trends and transitions for particular aspects of environmental change and particular regions of the world. National Research Council studies related to each developmental sector or environmental issue are provided in endnotes keyed to each section. Our purpose is not to duplicate these extensive treatments found through-

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Page 61 out the environmental science literature. Rather, we cite recent studies that present authoritative findings on these topics. Human Development Population Growth, Urbanization, and Well-Being Slowing Growth The global human population at the end of the 20th century will reach about 6 billion people. With an annual growth rate of 1.33 percent between 1995 and 2000, about 80 million people were added to the planet each year. Current growth rates are falling and have been doing so since the peak global growth rate in the early 1960s of about 2.04 percent per year. Because this slowly declining growth rate is applied to an increasing population base, absolute population growth will remain high for the next few decades. Thus, population size is expected to increase by almost 2 billion between 2000 and 2025, the same amount as in the last quarter of this century.5 Changes in birth rates and death rates over time, a process referred to as the demographic transition, were first studied in Europe. Within two centuries, trends in Europe went from conditions of high birth and death rates to the current conditions of low birth and death rates. In such a transition, deaths first decline more rapidly than births. During that time, population grows rapidly, but eventually it stabilizes as the decline in birth rates matches or even exceeds the decline in death rates. While the general description of the demographic transition is widely accepted, there is much that is debated as to cause and details. Humanity is now in the midst of a global demographic transition that is more rapid than the European transition. Birth and death rates in developing countries have dropped unexpectedly rapidly. The transition in fertility rates in the developing world has declined to 3 births per woman compared to 6 births per woman at the post World War II peak of population growth and is more than halfway towards the level of 2.1 births per woman required to achieve eventual zero population growth. The average number of births for each woman of reproductive age has declined to 3 compared to 6 at the post World War II peak of population growth. The mortality transition in developing countries has also proceeded very rapidly, with life expectancy at birth having increased from 40 years in 1950 to about 64 years today—though this is still well below the 75 years of life expectancy in the industrialized countries. Today's population growth has immense momentum because large new generations of young people are reaching reproductive age. How

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Page 62 much population will grow depends on their choices of family size and their ability to implement these choices. Policies designed to encourage such implementation can slow growth considerably.6 In fact, the recent rates of decline in fertility outpaced earlier projections of demographers, such that the United Nations reduced its mid-range forecast of global population for 2050 from almost 9.8 billion in the 1994 projection to 8.9 billion in the 1998 projection.7 By the end of the 21st century, the world's human population is now projected to reach 9.5 billion.8 Nearly all of this increase—about 97 percent—will occur in the less developed areas of the world.9 (Figure 2.1). Expanding Urbanization10 Changes in distribution of the world's population over the last 50 years have been relatively small at the global scale (that is, between continents), but relatively large at the intranational scale. Currently, more than half of the world's population lives in Asia, as was the case at the end of the Second World War. The percentage of the world's population residing in Europe and North America has steadily declined, from about Figure 2.1 Historical and projected human population growth in billions for less developed and more developed regions, 1950–2050. Source: UN (1999). Courtesy of the United Nations.

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Page 63 30 percent in 1950 to closer to 20 percent at the century's end. The largest proportional gains have been in Africa, which today has nearly 22 percent of the world's population, almost three times its share at mid-century.11 At the beginning of the 21st century, more people will live and work in the urban centers of the world than in rural areas for the first time in history. In 1999, the intranational changes in distribution are mostly related to past and current trends in urbanization. Urban populations are currently growing substantially faster than the population as a whole. The urban proportion of the world's population is thus projected to grow from 45 to about 60 percent in a generation.12 It could well grow to upwards of the 80 percent that now characterizes Europe and Japan in two generations.13 Combined with the rates of overall population growth cited earlier, this means accommodating on the order of 80 million new urban dwellers a year, every year, throughout the transition to sustainability, a feat equivalent to building almost 20 great cities or 10 megacities each year.* Cities grow because people desire the infrastructure and opportunities that urban areas offer. Jobs, culture, schools, health care, and social services are generally more concentrated and accessible in cities than they are in rural areas. On average, people who live in urban areas receive more income, have fewer children, have better access to education, and live longer than their rural counterparts. But cities are also places of extreme contrast in wealth and opportunity. In some rapidly growing urban areas, it is harder to establish a sense of local community and shared responsibility for the well-being of the poor and hungry; thus in many cities, for the poor, urban life is more difficult, less healthy, and less safe than life in the countryside.14 The global transition to urban life is reflected in increases in both the proportion of urban dwellers and the size of cities. Within these constraints, the growth in the proportion of the population that is urban seems to follow an "s" shaped logistic, leveling off at 80 to 90 percent in industrialized countries.15 The overall percentage of people worldwide living in urban areas increased from 37 percent in 1970 to 45 percent in 1994, and is projected to reach 60 percent in 2025.16 The number of large cities has also grown significantly. In 1950, there were 81 "million cities" (cities with populations between 1 and 10 million); by 1990 there were 270 cities of this size. The number of megacities is increasing rapidly; while in 1950 there were only two megacities, New York and London, by 1990 there were 21 cities of this size, 15 in less developed regions. By 2015, *A "megacity" is defined as an urban aggregation of 8 million or more inhabitants. A "great city" is a city of 5 million inhabitants.

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Page 64 these numbers are projected to increase to 516 "million cities" and 33 megacities. But while the number of megacities has increased, their growth has slowed, suggesting that there may be some ceilings for city size. Twenty-three of these megacities will be located in less developed countries, a dramatic increase over the complete absence of cities of this size in these regions in the 1950s. By 2015, 378 million persons, or 12 percent of the urban population of these areas, will live in megacities.17 Improved Well-Being As population has doubled and urbanized over the past two generations, the overall well-being of people has substantially improved. Life expectancy has been rapidly extended; lifestyle has been enriched by literacy and education and made more secure economically. The Human Development Index (HDI), reported by the UN Development Program in its annual Human Development Report, provides a convenient and graphic indicator of these changes in the human condition, combining four indicators of well-being in the population of a nation: life expectancy at birth, adult literacy, school enrollment ratio, and real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The measures of lifespan, education, and economic welfare are transformed into index values, and the HDI is the simple average of the three index values.18 Figure 2.2 compares the distribution of the world's population on the HDI scale in 1960 and 1992. The evolving distribution of the human population on the HDI scale reflects the dramatic improvement in the material conditions of human life since the Second World War, particularly in developing countries. Since 1960 life expectancy in the developing world has increased by 17 years, and infant mortality has been cut in half. Access to safe drinking water has roughly doubled to more than two-thirds of all people. Primary school enrollment has increased by nearly two-thirds, reaching 77 percent by 1991. Per capita income has more than tripled. In sum, the developing world has covered as much ground in a generation, in a material sense, as the developed economies did in a century.19 Yet despite these gains, over one-sixth of the population still lives in poverty; and while the percentage of people living below the absolute poverty line of US$1/day in developing countries declined slightly from 30.1 percent in 1987 to 29.4 percent in 1993, the actual number of people living in poverty rose from 1.2 billion in 1987 to 1.3 billion in 1993.20* Progress has been social as well as material. Women have made im- *The absolute poverty line of US$1/day is measured as purchasing power parity (PPP) dollars in 1985. World Bank (1999).

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Page 65 Figure 2.2 Distribution of the world's population by decile of the Human Development Index (HDI), 1960 versus 1992. The HDI provides a convenient and graphic indicator of changes in the human condition by combining four indicators of well-being in the population of a nation: life expectancy at birth, adult literacy, school enrollment ratio, and real GDP per capita. Source: UNDP (1995). Courtesy of Oxford University Press. portant gains over the past generation in ways that go beyond economic measures, including through narrowing gender gaps in education, increased literacy, and decreased female child labor rates.21 The available measures, however, show clearly that no society treats its women as well as its men. In addition, the relative well-being of different groups in societies remains contentious, as demonstrated by the persistence of underclasses of race, ethnicity, and poverty, and increasing disparities among groups in most societies. Transitions are also taking place in many other aspects of human development. They include the health transition underlying increasing longevity, with movement away from the infectious diseases characteristic of developing countries to the chronic diseases of industrialized coun-

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Page 66 tries. Yet despite these trends, there has been a surprising reemergence of infectious disease even in industrialized countries, with human immuno-deficiency virus (HIV) being the most prominent example. A number of diseases have been connected to technological and environmental changes, such as Legionnaire's disease (air conditioning), toxic shock syndrome (super-absorbent tampons), Lyme disease (changing suburban ecology), and Hanta virus (desert ecology). There may be a transition in education as well—from predominantly informal to formal learning and now to lifelong learning. Educational institutions, especially in the developed countries, are now addressing the needs for lifelong learning. And with the continued development and use of the Internet, especially in the developing countries, education and access to information are both expected to increase rapidly. Development itself was once thought to be a progression of stages.22 But if this is true, it is highly irregular and punctuated by regional differences and periods of economic stagnation and decline (Figure 2.3), by reversals of longevity, such as that of young people in AIDS-affected countries and of men in Russia, and by educational requirements outpacing of educational offerings. For a Sustainable Future The persistent trends of growing population numbers but slowing rates of population increase have two major implications. There will be an enormous challenge in meeting the needs of almost twice as many people as there are today in the space of a few decades. But if met successfully, this challenge is not likely to be repeated within the next century or two. Housing and employing the additional people of the equivalent of a thousand additional cities over the next two generations is one part of today's challenge. The 600 million homeless and over-crowded in today's cities suggest the magnitude of the future task. At the same time, building these equivalent cities provides a needed opportunity to replace the current infrastructure and to build anew in an energy- and water-efficient manner.23 The rapid improvements in human well-being over the last two generations make more realistic the prospects of attaining the social goals of a sustainability transition. But the absolute numbers to be fed, nurtured, and educated will be almost twice those of the past two generations. Recent reversals in longevity and sustained periods of economic stagnation in Africa, Latin America, and perhaps Asia argue for caution in the simple projection of trends of improvement into the future. Thus, meeting human needs in ways that provide for future generations is at the heart of the transition to sustainability.

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Page 67 Wealth and Consumption24 Growing Wealth—Growing Disparities Dramatic changes in human well-being are reflected substantially in changes in economic output (Figure 2.3). Trends in GDP—a measure of the total economic activity in a nation's markets—reflect a nation's production and income per capita, and hence give an indication of a country's poverty levels. GDP has been tracked back to 1820 (shown in Figure 2.3 on a logarithmic scale), a date at which the modern era of economic growth began in the view of an economic historian.25 There has been an average worldwide gain in GDP per person by a factor of 7.9 between 1820 and 1992; in the four ''Western offshoots," Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States, economic growth has brought about a gain of more than 17-fold over this span of roughly six generations—doubling economic output within each human lifespan. Even in Africa, the region with the weakest record, economic output per capita almost tripled between 1820 and 1980. Despite recent gains in GDP per capita, however, economic statistics do not provide a complete measure of societal production. A society that measures its economic attainments only by market transactions misses important activities. For example, family work in households, which is usually done by women, is not counted unless it generates market transactions; and home appliance use is not accounted for in GDP, while appliance repair is incorporated into this measure of economic activity. Pollution, which diminishes the value of ecosystem services and other valued activities and assets, is excluded from conventional GDP accounts as a liability, but appears as a valued economic good as effort, money, and materials are used to respond to it (such as for the repair of a pollution-damaged building façade or the restoration of habitat). Favorable trends in GDP also fail to account for disparities in the distribution of income. These disparities are widening and are likely to continue to do so in the absence of strong remedial actions.26 The gap is growing between rich and poor countries as a whole and between the rich and poor within many countries. On a global basis, the ratio of the income share of the richest 20 percent to the poorest 20 percent doubled over the past 30 years from 30:1 to 60:1.27 Among the rich countries (OECD countries), there has been a tendency over the last half-century toward convergence of productivity and income levels and a narrowing of disparities in wealth. Between the OECD and the poor or less developed countries, however, there has not been a general trend toward convergence, with the exception of a small but very important subset of developing countries primarily from east and Southeast Asia.28

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Page 68 Figure 2.3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, by geographic region. "Western offshoots" are the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. GDP is converted to a common standard, 1990 Geary-Khamis dollars, a method that uses estimates of purchasing power parity to compare national economies. Source: Maddison (1995).* Courtesy of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). *See Maddison (1995) Table G-3, p. 228. Appendix B describes treatment of changes in GDP over time.

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Page 69 The relationship between economic growth and income distribution remains controversial among economists.29 Within countries, developing countries have historically had higher levels of income inequality than more developed countries. There is evidence in some countries that increasing development has not contributed to the worsening of disparities in income distribution.30 But in some poor countries that have experienced rapid growth, disparities in earnings and income level have widened. In the developed world—and particularly in the United States—the gap in incomes between the highest 20 percent and the lowest 20 percent of workers has tended to increase since the late 1960s.31 Greater Consumption Trends toward increasing population and income have also meant trends towards increasing consumption worldwide. In general, extraction, production, and use of energy and materials have increased at rates exceeding the rate of population growth but more slowly than growth in GDP. At the same time, as consumption has increased, use of energy and materials has become more efficient on average. Varying views of consumption on the part of scientists from different disciplines32 have led to differing interpretations of consumption and its importance. For physicists, matter and energy are conserved, so consumption must be regarded as transformations of matter and energy that produce entropy or disorder. For economists, consumption is spending on consumer goods and services and is distinguished from the production and distribution of those goods. For ecologists, consumption is the pro-cess by which living species obtain energy and nutrients by eating green plants, which produce energy, or other consumers of green plants. And for some sociologists, consumption is a status symbol in that individuals and households use their income to improve their social status through certain kinds of purchases. To further understanding of human consumption and encourage effective actions toward sustainability, the officers of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of London have issued a joint statement on consumption. They choose a variant of the physicist's definition, stating: "Consumption is the human transformation of materials and energy." Their statement goes on to note that "consumption is of concern to the extent that it makes the transformed materials or energy less available for future use, or negatively impacts biophysical systems in such a way as to threaten human health, welfare, or other things people value."33 For consumption as the transformation of energy and materials, data recording trends are limited. Yet there is relatively good global knowledge of energy transformations due in part to the common units of con-

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Page 122 Alternatives for Ground Water Cleanup. Committee on Ground Water Cleanup Alternatives. (1994). Assessment of Water Resources Project Planning Procedures. Water Science and Technology Board. (1999). Climate, Climatic Change, and Water Supply. Panel on Water and Climate. (1977). Colorado River Ecology and Dam Management: Proceedings of a Symposium, May 24–25, 1990, Santa Fe, New Mexico. Committee to Review the Glen Canyon Environmental Studies. (1991). Drinking Water and Health. Volumes 5, 6, 7, 8, 9. Safe Drinking Water Committee. (1983-1989). Drought Management and Its Impact on Public Water Systems. Report of a Symposium Sponsored by the Water Science and Technology Board. (1986). Freshwater Ecosystems: Revitalizing Educational Programs in Limnology. Committee on Inland Aquatic Ecosystems. (1996). Ground Water and Soil Contamination Remediation: Toward Compatible Science, Policy, and Public Perception: Report of a Colloquium. Sponsored by the Water Science and Technology Board. (1990). Ground Water at Yucca Mountain: How High Can it Rise? Panel on Hydrologic/Tectonic/Hydrothermal Systems at Yucca Mountain. (1992). Ground Water Models: Scientific and Regulatory Applications. Committee on Ground Water Modeling Assessment. (1990). Ground Water Recharge Using Waters of Impaired Quality. Committee on Ground Water Recharge. (1994). Ground Water Vulnerability Assessment: Predicting Relative Contamination Potential Under Conditions of Uncertainty. Committee on Techniques for Assessing Ground Water Vulnerability. (1993). Hazardous Waste Site Management: Water Quality Issues. Report of a Colloquium. Water Science and Technology Board. (1988). Hydrologic Sciences: Taking Stock and Looking Ahead. Proceedings of the 1997 Abel Wolman Distinguished Lecture and Symposium on the Hydrologic Sciences. Water Science and Technology Board. (1998). Irrigation-Induced Water Quality Problems. Committee on Irrigation Induced Water Quality Problems. (1989). Issues in Potable Reuse: The Viability of Augmenting Drinking Water Supplies with Reclaimed Water. Committee to Evaluate the Viability of Augmenting Potable Water Supplies with Reclaimed Water. (1998). Managing Wastewater in Coastal Urban Areas. Committee on Wastewater Management for Coastal Urban Areas. (1993). Managing Water Resources in the West Under Conditions of Climate Uncertainty: A Proceedings of a Colloquium. Committee on Climate Uncertainty and Water Resources Management. (1991). Mexico City's Water Supply: Improving the Outlook for Sustainability. Joint Academies Committee on the Mexico City Water Supply. (1995). Nature and Human Society: The Quest for a Sustainable World. Committee for the Second Forum on Biodiversity. Eds. Peter Raven and Tania Williams. (1999). New Directions in Water Resources Planning for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Committee to Assess the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Water Resources Project Planning Procedures. (1999). New Strategies for America's Watersheds. Committee on Watershed Management. (1999).

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Page 123 Opportunities in the Hydrologic Sciences. Committee on Opportunities in the Hydrologic Sciences. (1991). Preparing for the Twenty-First Century: A Report to the USGS Water Resources Division. Committee on USGS Water Resources Research. (1991). Proceedings of the 1997 Abel Wolman Distinguished Lecture and Symposium on the Hydrologic Sciences. Water Science and Technology Board. (1997). Restoration of Aquatic Ecoystems: Science, Technology and Public Policy. Committee on Restoration of Aquatic Ecosystems. (1992). Safe Water from Every Tap: Improving Water Service to Small Communities. Committee on Small Water Supply Systems. (1997). Setting Priorities for Drinking Water Contaminants. Committee on Drinking Water Contaminants. (1998). Soil and Water Quality: An Agenda for Agriculture. Committee on Long-Range Soil and Water Conservation. (1993). Sustaining our Water Resources. Water Science and Technology Board. (1993). Toward Sustainability: Soil and Water Research Priorities for Developing Countries. Committee on International Soil and Water Research and Development. (1991). Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest. Committee on Protection and Management of Pacific Northwest Anadromous Salmonids. (1996). Use of Reclaimed Water and Sludge in Food Crop Production. Committee on the Use of Treated Municipal Wastewater Effluents and Sludge in the Production of Food Crops. (1996). Valuing Ground Water: Economic Concepts and Approaches. Committee on Valuing Ground Water. (1997). Water for the Future: The West Bank and Gaza Strip, Israel, and Jordan. Committee on Sustaining Water Supplies for the Middle East. (1999). Water Transfers in the West: Efficiency, Equity and the Environment. Committee on Western Water Management. (1992). Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries. Committee on Characterization of Wetlands. (1995). 110 Increased water withdrawals, Shiklomanov (1993); reflecting-term trend of increasing withdrawals per capita (L'vovich and White (1990). 111 UN (1997b). 112 Gleick (1998). 113 Gleick (1998), based on Shiklomanov (1993) and UN (1992). 114 Gleick (1998). 115 WRI (1998), NRC (1999b). 116 UN (1997b). 117 WHO (1996c). 118 UN (1997a). 119 Africa and Asia, Raskin (1997); Middle East, NRC (1999b). 120 UN (1997b). 121 Margat (1996). 122 NRC (1998a). 123 UN (1997a). 124 L'vovich and White (1990). 125 Nonrenewable aquifers, Schwarz et al. (1990); distant rivers, Kahrl (1982); husbanding and recycling, Bouwer (1992); NRC (1998a). 126 Raskin, Hansen, and Margolis (1995). 127 WRI (1998). 128 UN (1997a).

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Page 124 129 WRI (1998). 130 UNEP (1996). 131 Gleick (1998). 132 Ibid. 133 Anderson (1991); the lack of adequate facilities, Gleick (1998); increase in algal blooms, Patz et al. (1996). 134 Gleick (1998); Raskin (1997). 135 NRC (1999b). 136 National Research Council reports (for most recent list and full texts, see http://www.nap.edu) related to land include: A New Era for Irrigation. Committee on the Future of Irrigation in the Face of Competing Demands. (1996). A Scientific Strategy for U.S. Participation in the GOALS (Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System) Component of CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) Programme. GOALS Panel, Climate Research Committee. (1998). Agricultural Crop Issues and Policies. Committee on Managing Global Genetic Resources: Agricultural Imperatives. (1993). Alternative Agriculture. Committee on the Role of Alternative Farming Methods in Modern Production Agriculture. (1989). Biologic Markers of Air-Pollution Stress and Damage in Forests. Committee on Biologic Markers of Air Pollution Damage. (1989). Biotechnology Unzipped: Promises and Realities. Eric S. Grace. Joseph Henry Press. (1997). China and Global Change: Opportunities for Collaboration. Panel on Global Climate Change Sciences in China. (1992). Colleges of Agriculture at the Land Grant Universities: A Profile. Committee on the Future of Land Grant Colleges of Agriculture. (1995). Colleges of Agriculture at the Land Grant Universities: Public Service and Public Policy. Committee on the Future of Land Grant Colleges of Agriculture. (1996). Cooperating With Nature: Confronting Natural Hazards with Land-Use Planning for Sustainable Communities. Ed. Raymond J. Burby. Joseph Henry Press. (1998). Designing an Agricultural Genome Program. Board on Biology. (1998). Ecological Risks: Perspectives from Poland and the United States. Eds. Wladyslaw Grodzinski, Ellis Cowling, Alicia Breymeyer and Anna Phillips. (1990). Ecologically Based Pest Management: New Solutions for a New Century. Committee on Pest and Pathogen Control Through Management of Biological Control Agents. (1996). Flood Risk Management and the American River Basin: An Evaluation. Committee on Flood Control Alternatives in the American River Basin. (1995). Food Aid Projections for the Decade of the 1990s. Panel on Food Aid Requirements for the 1990s. (1989). Forest Trees. Committee on Managing Global Genetic Resources: Agricultural Imperatives. (1991). Forested Landscapes in Perspective: Prospects and Opportunities for Sustainable Management of America's Nonfederal Forests. Committee on Prospects and Opportunities for Sustainable Management of America's Nonfederal Forests. (1998). Forestry Research: A Mandate for Change. Committee on Forestry Research. (1990). Forests of the Pacific Northwest. Committee on Environmental Issues in Pacific Northwest Forest Management. (1998). Future of Pesticides in Pest Management for U.S. Agriculture. Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology. (1999).

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Page 125 Genetic Engineering of Plants: Agricultural Research Opportunities and Policy Concerns. Board on Agriculture. (1984). Grasslands and Grassland Sciences in Northern China. Office of International Affairs. (1992). Investing in Research: A Proposal to Strengthen the Agricultural, Food, and Environmental System. Board on Agriculture. (1989). Irrigation-Induced Water Quality Problems: Planning for Remediation. Committee on Irrigation-Induced Water Quality Problems. (1996). Land Use Planning and Oil and Gas Leasing on Onshore Federal Lands. Committee on Onshore Oil and Gas Leasing. (1989). Livestock. Committee on Managing Global Genetic Resources: Agricultural Imperatives. (1993). Lost Crops of Africa: Volume I: Grains. Board on Science and Technology for International Development. (1996). Lost Crops of the Incas: Little-Known Plants of the Andes with Promise for Worldwide Cultivation. Panel on Lost Crops of the Incas. (1989). Marine Aquaculture: Opportunities for Growth. Committee on Assessment of Technology and Opportunities for Marine Aquaculture in the U.S. (1992). Microlivestock: Little-Known Small Animals with a Promising Future. Board on Science and Technology for International Development. (1991). Mitigating Losses from Land Subsidence in the United States. Committee on Grand Failure Hazards Mitigation Panel on Land Subsidence. (1991). Neem: A Tree for Solving Global Problems. Board on Science and Technology for International Development. (1992). New Directions for Biosciences Research in Agriculture: High-Reward Opportunities. Committee on Biosciences Research in Agriculture. (1985). Nutrient Requirements of Dairy Cattle. Committee on Animal Nutrition, Subcommittee on Dairy Cattle. (1989). Nutrient Requirements of Fish. Committee on Animal Nutrition, Subcommittee on Fish Nutrition. (1993). Nutrient Requirements of Horses. Committee on Animal Nutrition, Subcommittee on Horse Nutrition. (1989). One Earth, One Future: Our Changing Global Environment. Cheryl Silver and Ruth DeFries. (1992). Plant Biology Research and Training for the 21st Century. Committee on an Examination of Plant-Science Research Programs in the U.S. (1992). Population and Land Use in Developing Countries: Report of a Workshop. Committee on Population. (1993). Precision Agriculture in the 21st Century: Geospatial and Information Technologies in Crop Management. Committee on Assessing Crop Yield: Site-Specific Farming, Information Systems, and Research Opportunities. (1997). Quality Protein Maize. Board on Science and Technology for International Development. (1988). Rangeland Health: New Methods to Classify, Inventory, and Monitor Rangelands. Committee on Rangeland Classification. (1994). Regenerating Agriculture: Policies and Practice for Sustainability and Self-Reliance. Jules N. Pretty. (1995). Saline Agriculture: Salt Tolerant Plants for Developing Countries. Panel on Saline Agriculture for Developing Countries, Board on Science and Technology for International Development. (1990).

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Page 126 Setting Priorities for Land Conservation. Committee on Scientific and Technological Criteria for Federal Acquisition of Lands for Conservation. (1993). Soil and Water Quality: An Agenda for Agriculture. Committee on Long-Range Soil Soil and Water Conservation. (1993). Soil Conservation: An Assessment of the National Resources Inventory, Volume 1 and Volume 2. Committee on Conservation Needs and Opportunities. (1986). Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the Humid Tropics. Committee on Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the Humid Tropics. (1993). Sustainable Agriculture Research and Education in the Field: A Proceedings. Board on Agriculture. (1991). Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment. Eds. Jesse Ausubel and H. Dale Langford. (1997). The U.S. National Plant Germplasm System. Committee on Managing Global Genetic Resources: Agricultural Imperatives. (1991). Toward Sustainability: A Plan for Collaborative Research on Agriculture and Natural Resource Management. Panel for Collaborative Research Support for AID's Sustainable Agriculture and Natural Resources Management Program. (1991). Toward Sustainability: Integrated Pest Management as a Component of Sustainability Research. Subpanel on Integrated Pest Management, Panel for Collaborative Research Support for AID's Sustainable Agriculture and Natural Resources Management Program. (1992). Toward Sustainability: Soil and Water Research Priorities for Developing Countries. Committee on International Soil and Water Research and Development. (1991). Understanding Agriculture: New Directions for Education. Committee on Agricultural Education in Secondary Schools. (1998). Use of Reclaimed Water and Sludge in Food Crop Production. Committee on the Use of Treated Municipal Wastewater Effluents and Sludge in Food Crop Production. (1996). Vetiver Grass: A Thin Green Line Against Erosion. Board on Science and Technology for International Development. (1993). Wood in Our Future: The Role of Life-Cycle Analysis: Proceedings of a Symposium. Board on Agriculture. (1997). Xenotransplantation: Science, Ethics, and Public Policy. Institute of Medicine, Committee on Xenograft Transplantation: Ethical Issues and Public Policy. (1996). 137 Richards (1990). 138 Rozanov et al. (1990). 139 Hayami and Ruttan (1985). 140 Pinstrup-Anderson et al. (1997). 141 Ausubel (1996b). 142 Rasmussen et al. (1998). 143 Khush (1995); Naylor (1996). 144 Matson et al. (1997). 145 Walsh (1991). 146 Williams (1990). 147 Noble and Dirizo (1997). 148 Williams (1990). 149 Noble and Dirizo (1997). 150 Ciais et al. (1995). 151 Simpson et al. (1996). 152 Noble and Dirizo (1997).

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Page 127 153 National Research Council reports (for most recent list and full texts, see http://www.nap.edu) related to species and ecosystems include: A Biological Survey for the Nation. Committee on the Formation of the National Biological Survey. (1993). An Assessment of Atlantic Bluefin Tuna. Committee to Review Atlantic Bluefin Tuna. (1994). An Evaluation of the U.S. Navy's Extremely Low Frequency Submarine Communications Ecological Monitoring Program. Committee to Evaluate the U.S. Navy's Exteremely Low Frequency Submarine Communications Ecological Monitoring Program. (1997). Assessment of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program I: Ecology. Committee to Review the Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program. (1992). Biodiversity. Ed. E. O. Wilson. (1988). Biodiversity Conservation in Transboundary Protected Areas. Proceedings of an International Workshop, Bieszczady and Tatra National Parks, Poland. Eds. A. I. Breymeyer, R. D. Noble, and S. Deets. (1996). Biodiversity II: Understanding and Protecting Our Biological Resources. Marjorie Reaka-Kudla, Don Wilson, and E. O. Wilson. Joseph Henry Press. (1995). Building a Foundation for Sound Environmental Decisions. Committee on Research Opportunities and Priorities for EPA. (1997). Chemical Ecology: The Chemistry of Biotic Interaction. Eds. Thomas Eisner and Jerrold Meinwald. (1995). China and Global Change: Opportunities for Collaboration. Panel on Global Climate Change Sciences in China. (1992). Colorado River Ecology and Dam Management: Proceedings of a Symposium May 24–25, 1990. Committee to Review the Glen Canyon Environmental Studies. (1991). Conserving Biodiversity: A Research Agenda for Development Agencies. Panel on Biodiversity Research Priorities, Board on Science and Technology for International Development. (1992). Contaminated Marine Sediments: Assessment and Remediation. Committee on Contaminated Marine Sediments. (1989). Contaminated Sediments in Ports and Waterways: Cleanup Strategies and Technologies. Committee on Contaminated Marine Sediments. (1997). Decline of the Sea Turtles: Causes and Prevention. Committee on Sea Turtle Conservation. (1990). Dolphins and the Tuna Industry. Committee on Reducing Porpoise Mortality from Tuna Fishing. (1992). Ecological Knowledge and Environmental Problem-Solving: Concepts and Case Studies. Committee on Applications of Ecological Theory to Environmental Problems. (1986). Ecological Risks: Perspectives from Poland and the United States. Eds. Wladyslaw Grodzinski, Ellis Cowling, Alicia Breymeyer and Anna Phillips. (1990). Ecologically-Based Pest Management: New Solutions for a New Century. Committee on Pest and Pathogen Control Through Management of Biological Control Agents. (1996). Effects of Past Global Change on Life. Board on Earth Sciences and Resources. (1995). Engineering Within Ecological Constraints. Ed. Peter C. Schulze. (1996). Forest Trees. Committee on Managing Global Genetic Resources: Agricultural Imperatives. (1991).

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Page 128 Freshwater Ecosystems: Revitalizing Educational Programs in Limnology. Committee on Inland Aquatic Ecosystems. (1996). Grasslands and Grassland Sciences in Northern China. Office of International Affairs. (1992). Improving Fish Stock Assessments. Committee on Fish Stock Assessment Methods. (1998). Land Use Planning and Oil and Gas Leasing on Onshore Federal Lands. Committee on Onshore Oil and Gas Leasing. (1989). Linking Science and Technology to Society's Environmental Goals. National Forum on Science and Technology Goals. (1996). Measures of Environmental Performance and Ecosystem Conditions. NAE. Ed. Peter Schulze. (1999). Nature and Human Society: The Quest for a Sustainable World. Committee for the Second Forum on Biodiversity. Eds. Peter Raven and Tania Williams. (1999). New Strategies for America's Watersheds. Committee on Watershed Management. (1999). Perspectives on Biodiversity: Valuing Its Role in an Everchanging World. Committee on Economic and Noneconomic Value of Biodiversity. (1999). Priorities for Coastal Ecosystem Science. Committee to Identify High-Priority Science to Meet National Coastal Needs. (1995). Restoration of Aquatic Ecosystems: Science, Technology, and Public Policy. Committee on the Restoration of Aquatic Ecosystems. (1992). River Resource Management in the Grand Canyon. Committee to Review the Glen Canyon Environmental Studies. (1996). Science and the Endangered Species Act. Committee on Scientific Issues in the Endangered Species Act. (1995). Shaping the Future: Biology and Human Values. Steve Olson. (1989). Sharing the Fish: Toward a National Policy on Individual Fishing Quotas. Committee to Review Individual Fishing Quotas. (1999). Soil and Water Quality: An Agenda for Agriculture. Committee on Long-Range Soil and Water Conservation. (1993). Stemming the Tide: Controlling Introductions of Nonindigenous Species by Ships' Ballast Water. Committee on Ships' Ballast Operations. (1996). Sustaining Marine Fisheries. Committee on Ecosystem Management for Sustainable Marine Fisheries. (1999). Technological Trajectories and the Human Environment. NAE. Eds. Jesse H. Ausubel and H. Dale Langford. (1997). The Bering Sea Ecosystem. Committee on the Bering Sea Ecosystem. (1996). The Greening of Industrial Ecosystems. NAE. Eds. Braden Allenby and Deanna Richards. (1994). The Mono Basin Ecosystem: Effects of Changing Lake Level. Mono Basin Ecosystem Study Committee. (1987). The Ocean's Role in Global Change: Progress of Major Research Programs. Ocean Studies Board. (1994). The Scientific Bases for Preservation of the Hawaiian Crow. Committee on the Scientific Bases for the Preservation of the Hawaiian Crow. (1992). The Scientific Bases for Preservation of the Mariana Crow. Committee on the Scientific Bases for the Preservation of the Mariana Crow. (1997). Toward a Sustainable Future: Addressing the Long-Term Effects of Motor Vehicle Transportation on Climate and Ecology. Transportation Research Board. (1997).

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Page 129 Understanding Marine Biodiversity: A Research Agenda for the Nation. Committee on Biological Diversity in Marine Systems. (1995). Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest. Committee on Protection and Management of Pacific Northwest Anadromous Salmonids. (1996). Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries. Committee on Characterizations of Wetlands. (1995). Wolves, Bears, and Their Prey in Alaska: Biological and Social Challenges in Wildlife Management. Committee on Management of Wolf and Bear Populations in Alaska. (1997). 154 The five commonly recognized mass extinctions of species were the Ordovician 440 million years ago, the Devonian 365 million years ago, the Permian 245 million years ago, the Triassic 210 million years ago, and the Cretaceaous 65 million years ago (see Wilson 1993, Ch. 3). 155 Lawton and May (1995). 156 Barbault and Sastrapradja (1995). 157 MacDonald et al. (1989). 158 NRC (1995b). 159 Cohen and Carlton (1995). 160 NRC (1995b). 161 IUCN (1996). 162 McAllister et al. (1997); NRC (1996). 163 Newell (1988); Lovejoy (1997). 164 Burke et al. (1998). 165 Daily (1997). 166 NRC (1988). 167 Ecological Society of America (1996); Daily (1997). 168 National Research Council reports (for most recent list and full texts, see http://www.nap.edu) related to disease organisms and vectors include: Adverse Effects of Pertussis and Rubella Vaccines. Committee to Review the Adverse Consequences of Pertussis and Rubella Vaccines. (1991). AIDS and Behavior: An Integrated Approach. Committee on Substance Abuse and Mental Health Issues in AIDS Research. (1994). AIDS, Sexual Behavior, and Intravenous Drug Use. Committee on AIDS Research and the Behavioral, Social, and Statistical Sciences. (1989). AIDS: The Second Decade. Committee on AIDS Research and the Behavioral, Social, and Statistical Sciences. (1990). Antimicrobial Resistance: Issues and Options. Forum on Emerging Infections. Eds. Polly F. Harrison and Joshua Lederberg. (1998). Assessing the Social and Behavioral Science Base for HIV/AIDS Prevention and Intervention: Workshop Summary. Committee on the Social and Behavioral Science Base for HIV/AIDS Prevention and Intervention. (1995). Cattle Inspection. Committee on Evaluation of USDA Streamlined Inspection System for Cattle. (1990). Companion Guide to Infectious Diseases of Mice and Rats. Committee on Infectious Diseases of Mice and Rats. (1991). Conference on Human Health and Global Climate Change—Summary of the Proceedings. Eds. Valerie Setlow and Andrew Pope. (1996). Confronting AIDS: Directions for Public Health, Health Care, and Research. Committee on a Naitonal Strategy for AIDS. (1986). Confronting AIDS: Update 1988. Committee for the Oversight of AIDS Activities. (1988).

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Page 130 Ecologically Based Pest Management: New Solutions for a New Century. Committee on Pest and Pathogen Control Through Management of Biological Control Agents. (1996). Effects of Health Programs on Child Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. Working Group on the Effects of Child Survival and General Health Programs on Mortality, Committee on Population. (1993). Emerging Infections: Microbial Threats to Health in the United States. Committee on Microbial Threats to health in the United States. (1992). Environmental Epidemiology, Volume I: Public Health and Hazardous Wastes. Committee on Environmental Epidemiology. (1991). Environmental Medicine: Integrating a Missing Element into Medical Education. Committee on Curriculum Development in Environmental Medicine. (1995). Evaluating AIDS Prevention Programs: Expanded Edition. Committee on AIDS Research and the Behavioral, Social, and Statistical Sciences. (1991). Factors Affecting Contraceptive Use in Sub-Saharan Africa. Panel on Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa, Committee on Population. (1993). Global Environmental Change: Understanding the Human Dimensions. Committee on Human Dimensions of Global Change. (1991). Global Health in Transition: A Synthesis: Perspectives from International Organizations. Board on International Health. Eds. John H. Bryant and Polly F. Harrison. (1996). HIV and the Blood Supply: An Analysis of Crisis Decisionmaking. Committee to Study HIV Transmission through Blood and Blood Products. (1995). In Her Lifetime: Female Morbidity and Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. Committee to Study Female Morbidity and Mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa. Ed. Christopher P. Howsen. (1996). Infectious Diseases in an Age of Change: The Impact of Human Ecology and Behavior on Disease Transmission. Ed. Bernard Roizman. (1995). Infectious Diseases of Mice and Rats. Committee on Infectious Diseases of Mice and Rats. (1991). Issues in Potable Reuse: The Viability of Augmenting Drinking Water Supplies with Reclaimed Water. Committee to Evaluate the Viability of Augmenting Potable Water Supplies with Reclaimed Water. (1998). Linking Research and Public Health Practice: A Review of CDC's Program of Centers for Research and Demonstration of Health Promotion and Disease Prevention. (1997). Livestock: Managing Global Genetic Resources: Agricultural Imperatives. Committee on Managing Global Genetic Resources: Agricultural Imperatives. Subcommittee on Animal Genetic Resources. (1993). Malaria: Obstacles and Opportunities. Committee for the Study of Malaria Prevention and Control: Status Review and Alternative Strategy. (1991). National Academy of Sciences Colloquium: Genetic Engineering of Viruses and Viral Vectors. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. (1996). New Vaccine Development: Establishing Priorities; Volume II, Diseases of Importance in Developing Countries. Committee on Issues and Priorities for New Vaccine Development. (1986). Preventing and Mitigating AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa: Research and Data Priorities for the Social and Behavioral Sciences. Panel on Data and Research Priorities for Arresting AIDS in Sub-Saharan Africa. Eds. Barney Cohen and James Trussell. (1996). Preventing HIV Transmission: The Role of Sterile Needles and Bleach. Panel on Needle Exchange and Bleach Distribution Programs. (1995). Rodents. Institute of Laboratory Animal Resources, Committee on Rodents. (1996).

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Page 131 The Epidemiological Transition: Policy and Planning Implications for Developing Countries: Workshop Proceedings. Committee on Population, Board on International Health. (1993). The Hidden Epidemic: Confronting Sexually Transmitted Diseases, Summary. Committee on Prevention and Control of Sexually Transmitted Diseases. (1997). The Social Impact of AIDS in the United States. Committee on AIDS Research and the Behavioral, Social, and Statistical Sciences. (1993). Vaccines for the 21st Century: A Tool for Setting Priorities. Committee to Develop Priorities for Vaccine Development. Eds. Kathleen R. Stratton, Jane S. Durah, and Michael A. Stoto. (1998). Valuing Health Risks, Costs, and Benefits for Environmental Decisionmaking: Report of a Conference. Steering Committee on Valuing Health Risks, Costs, and Benefits for Environmental Decisions. Eds. P. Brett Hammond and Rob Coppock. (1990). 169 WHO (1996a). 170 Ibid. 171 Bradley (1994). 172 WHO (1992). 173 Dobson et al. (1997). 174 Lindsay and Birley (1996). 175 Death from tuberculosis, WHO (1996b): disease and increasing poverty and homelessness in urban areas, Stephens (1996); multidrug resistance, Wilson (1994). 176 WHO (1996b). 177 IOM (1992). 178 See Patz et al. (1996).

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