COOPERATION IN THE ENERGY FUTURES OF CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

National Research Council


Chinese Academy of Sciences


Chinese Academy of Engineering

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States COOPERATION IN THE ENERGY FUTURES OF CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES National Research Council Chinese Academy of Sciences Chinese Academy of Engineering NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The project was also approved by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering. This study was supported by Grant No. DE-FG01-98EEE35047 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Energy Grant Number C826453-01-0 from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and funds provided by the U.S. National Academies. The Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Chinese Academy of Engineering each provided funds to cover costs of their participation in this study. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu International Standard Book Number 0-309-06887-8 Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States U.S. CHAIR Richard E. Balzhiser, NAE — President Emeritus, Electric Power Research Institute U.S. MEMBERS Charles Curtis * — Partner, Hogan & Hartson E. Linn Draper, NAE — Chairman, American Electric Power Company Robert W. Fri — Director, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution Robert L. Hirsch — Executive Advisor, Advanced Power Technologies, Inc. Mark D. Levine — Division Director, Environmental Energy Technologies, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Milton Russell — Senior Fellow, Joint Institute for Energy and Environment; Professor Emeritus, University of Tennessee Maxine L. Savitz, NAE — General Manager, Ceramic Components, AlliedSignal Jack S. Siegel — President, Technology and Markets Group, Energy Resources International U.S. EX-OFFICIO MEMBERS Harold K. Forsen, NAE — Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering John P. Holdren, NAS — Chair, NAS Committee on International Security & Arms Control F. Sherwood Rowland, NAS — Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences U.S. STAFF John P. Boright — Executive Director, Office of International Affairs Michael J. Cheetham — Staff Officer and Study Director *   Resigned from the committee in March 1999 to consider governmental service. Mr. Curtis contributed significantly to the work of the committee and on a conceptual basis to this report.

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Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States CHINESE CHAIR Prof. Lu Yongxiang * CAS, CAE — President, Chinese Academy of Sciences CHINESE MEMBERS Prof. Cai Ruixian, CAS — Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences Prof. Fan Weitang, CAE — President, China Coal Society Prof. Hu Jianyi, CAE — Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development, China National Petroleum Corporation Prof. Wang Yingshi — Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences Prof. Yan Luguang, CAS — Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences Prof. Yao Fusheng, CAE — Bureau of Machinery Industry Prof. Zhao Renkai, CAS, CAE — China National Nuclear Corporation Prof. Zheng Jianchao, CAE — Electric Power Research Institute of China. Prof. Zhou Fengqi — Director, Energy Research Institute, State Development Planning Commission CHINESE EX-OFFICIO MEMBERS An Jianji — Associate Director-General, Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Sciences Cao Jinghua — Director, Office of American and Oceanian Affairs, Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Sciences Liu Xiaobei — Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Chinese Academy of Engineering CHINESE STAFF Cui Zhengxin — University of Science and Technology of China *   Chinese names are listed family name first, given name second.

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Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States Acknowledgments We wish to thank the U.S. Department of Energy, the Environmental Protection Agency, the U.S. National Academies, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Chinese Academy of Engineering for their financial support of this project. The committee also wishes to thank Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory for hosting a meeting of this group, and the Sierra Pacific Power Company for a visit to the Piñon Pine Power Project. Finally the committee wishes to thank all the individuals consulted over the course of preparing this paper, especially those of the Energy Information Administration; these informal consultations were an invaluable component of this committee’s work. We would like to recognize the contributions made by Inta Brikovskis, Staff Officer at the NRC, and those of Feng Liu, an independent consultant to the NRC. Douglas Bauer, Executive Director of the Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems at the NRC also deserves recognition for his work in helping conceptualize this project and in forming the committee. This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with the procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the individuals listed below, who are neither officials nor employees of the NRC, for their participation in the review of this report. While the individuals listed below have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized

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Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States that the responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee, the NRC, and the Chinese Academies of Sciences and Engineering. U.S. Report Review Committee Linden Blue — Vice Chairman, General Atomics William Chandler — Director, Advanced International Studies Unit, Battelle Memorial Institute Richard Cooper — Boas Professor of International Economics, Harvard University Elisabeth M. Drake, NAE — Associate Director for New Energy Technology, MIT Energy Laboratory Robert Frosch, NAE — Senior Research Fellow, Harvard University Donald L. Guertin — Director, Program on Energy and the Environment, The Atlantic Council of the United States Kent F. Hansen, NAE — Professor of Nuclear Engineering, MIT Edwin E. Kintner, NAE — Retired Executive Vice President, GPU Nuclear Corporation John W. Landis, NAE — Retired Senior Vice President, Stone & Webster Engineering Corporation Michael May — Research Professor, Engineering-Economic Systems & Operations Research, Stanford University David H. Pai, NAE — President, Foster Wheeler Development Corporation Richard S. Stein, NAS, NAE — Goessmann Professor of Chemistry, Emeritus, University of Massachusetts This report was also simultaneously reviewed by a Chinese Report Review Committee. We wish to thank the Chinese reviewers listed below who provided many significant comments and suggestions for the report. Chinese Report Review Committee Prof. Pan Jiazheng, CAS, CAE — Vice President, Chinese Academy of Engineering Prof. Wu Chengkang, CAS — Institute of Mechanics, Chinese Academy of Sciences Prof.Yang Bailing — Vice President, Chinese Academy of Sciences Prof. Zhang Kan — Director General, Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Sciences Prof. Zhu Xuan — Secretary General, Chinese Academy of Sciences

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Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States Preface Adequate supplies of energy at reasonable costs are essential for long-term economic prosperity and social development, and to correct past environmental problems as well as to prevent new ones. The energy futures of China and the United States are intimately linked: both countries draw on the same international sources for imported oil and are affected by changes in its price and availability, and both countries will be depending on similar energy technologies and will jointly benefit from technological advancements. Energy production, conversion and use has significant environmental consequences, and these consequences in both countries have similar potential to benefit and to harm. Environmental consequences from energy production, conversion, and use also provide a linkage between the two countries: similar technologies and practices can be used to prevent pollution; damage in each of our countries is of interest to the other because we share a common world heritage and concern for our peoples. Moreover, environmental consequences can be transboundary—for example pollution of the shared oceans and atmosphere; and they can also be global, as in the emission of greenhouse gases. The two countries share some of the same challenges, for example: improving energy efficiency; increasing the contribution of cleaner energy supply to lessen local, regional and global pollution; reducing the harmful effects from coal combustion; increasing the efficiency of petroleum extraction and use; and increasing the use of renewable energy resources. However, they have complementary and mutually supporting abilities to contribute to meeting these challenges. Each country has experience in specific technological fields. Each country has advantages in implementing the next stage in technological develop-

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Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States ment—for instance, China may provide the opportunity for installation of next-generation nuclear power facilities or clean coal technologies, and its unserved rural regions may be ideal for proving next-generation renewable distributed power systems such as solar. In comparison, the United States has a longer history in electric generation and can develop the techniques and practices for improving reliability and efficiency of power plants and for extending their useful life. Consequently, the two countries can make more progress working together, using each other’s strengths, than they can working separately. China and the United States will play an important role in the world’s energy future. Together they comprise just over a quarter of the world’s population and account for over a third of total world energy use. Both have maintained strong and growing economies in spite of a global downturn and the Asian economic crisis. The United States ranks first in energy consumption and production and is responsible for about 24 percent of the world’s energy-related carbon emissions. China is second in energy consumption and accounts for 13 percent of global energy-related carbon emissions. In addition, China is a leader among the industrializing countries of the world and the United States among the industrialized. Their example will be studied and may be emulated around the world. Our conclusion is that cooperation on energy matters is in the best interest of both the United States and of China. Further, this cooperation will have beneficial effects on other countries as well. Therefore it is vitally important for the two countries to develop and sustain the kind of intellectual, economic and political relationships that will foster cooperation in our long-term energy futures. In a January 1997 meeting of the Presidents of the NAS and the CAS, Dr. Alberts and Dr. Zhou proposed that a cooperative program on energy be undertaken by the four Academies (NAS, NAE, CAS, and CAE). Members of four Academies and several energy experts were organized to implement this report which is aimed at identifying initiatives and providing recommendations to both governments. It is our hope that the result will be helpful to both China and the United States, as well as to other countries. The group from the four Academies responsible for this study of challenges and cooperative opportunities in the energy sectors of China and the United States has examined the likely trajectories of each country’s energy development from the present to the year 2020. Given the long life cycles of energy infrastructure, the decisions made by our respective governments—and the cooperation between them in the period discussed in this study—will have implications reaching far beyond the next few decades. Cooperation in both the short and near term can make a critical contribution to a sustained energy future for our nations who, being the largest countries and economies in the developed and the developing world, set an example for other nations. The paper which follows is a consensus document. All members of the U.S. and Chinese committee have agreed to each of the conclusions and recommendations.

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Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1     HIGHLIGHTS OF CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   11 1   ENERGY SETTING FOR CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES   15      Energy Trajectories for China and the United States,   16     A.  Energy Demand and End-Use Efficiency,   16     B.  Coal,   22     C.  Natural Gas,   25     D.  Petroleum,   29     E.  Nuclear Power,   31     F.  Electricity,   36     G.  Renewable Energy,   39 2   PERSPECTIVES AND COMMENTARY   44     A.  Import Dependence and Energy Security,   45     B.  Dependence on Fossil Fuels—Especially Coal—and the Associated Economic, Health, and Environmental Impacts,   46     C.  Nuclear Power Challenges and Opportunities,   49     D.  Renewable Energy Systems,   51     E.  Energy Infrastructure,   55     F.  Barriers to Deployment of Advanced Technologies and Practices,   57     G.  Global Restructuring of the Energy Industry,   63

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Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States 3   CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   65     A.  Cross-Cutting Initiatives,   66     B.  Energy Use and End-Use Efficiency,   70     C.  Clean Coal,   74     D.  Natural Gas,   78     E.  Petroleum,   81     F.  Renewable Energy,   82     G.  Nuclear Energy,   85     H.  Electricity Transmission and Distribution Systems,   87     ACRONYMS   89     ENERGY CONVERSION   92     REFERENCES   94 FIGURES 1-1   U.S. Commercial Energy Consumption by Fuel,   16 1-2   Chinese Commercial Energy Consumption by Fuel,   19 TABLES 1-1   Regional Distribution of CBM Resources in China,   27 1-2   U.S. Baseline Case Renewable Energy Generating Capacity,   39 1-3   Development Status of Renewable Energy in China,   40 1-4   Projections for Renewable Energy Development in China,   41 3-1   Commercial Status of U.S. Clean Coal Technologies (CCTs),   74 3-2   Chinese Technical and Economic Evaluation of Different Desulfurization Measures for High-Sulfur Coal,   75 BOXES 1-1   Potential Collaboration in the Coalbed Methane (CBM) Industry,   28 1-2   Chinese Technology Priorities in the Petroleum Industry,   32 2-1   Challenges to China’s Renewable Energy Development,   52 2-2   Barriers to Investment in Energy Efficiency in China,   61