mix of primary energy inputs, for the most part using higher quality fuels and processes.

ENERGY TRAJECTORIES FOR CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES

The Committee on Cooperation in the Energy Futures of China and the United States (CCEF) examined existing projections of energy supply and demand through the year 2020. For each country and sector, highlights are presented in a baseline case, followed by alternate possibilities based on possible reshaping of the energy situation, and finally a look at current trends and existing collaborative efforts. A great deal of the U.S. energy baseline case summary is based on the Annual Energy Outlook prepared by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE); much of the Chinese energy sector information is taken from the China Energy Annual Review. Chinese data do not include estimates for Hong Kong, Macao, or Taiwan. Other sources are noted in the text. The alternative scenarios also are based on existing projections with sources noted in the text.

A. ENERGY DEMAND AND END-USE EFFICIENCY

1. U.S. Baseline Case

As shown in Figure 1-1, total energy consumption in the United States is expected to increase by about 1.1 percent per year between 1997 and 2020, from

FIGURE 1-1 U.S. Commercial Energy Consumption by Fuel. U.S. Department of Energy, 1999



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