Page xvi

Sources of Uncertainty in Trend Estimates

44

8
Radiosonde Observations

50

Summary of Trends

50

Sources of Uncertainty in Trend Estimates

50

Background

51

Data Homogeneity Problems

52

Variety of Methods of Estimating Global Trends in Layer-Mean Temperatures

53

Efforts to Correct the Problems

55

9
Trend Comparisons

58

Comparisons Between MSU and Radiosonde Data sets

58

Evidence Concerning Surface versus Tropospheric Temperature Trends

62

Interpretation of the Differences Between Observed Surface and Tropospheric Temperature Trends

65

Insights Derived from Model Simulations

68

Concluding Remarks

70

References

72

Appendixes

79

A. Biographical Information on Panel Members

81

B. Acronyms and Abbreviations

85



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