REVIEW OF THE NARSTO DRAFT REPORT: AN ASSESSMENT OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE POLLUTION–A NORTH AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE

COMMITTEE TO ASSESS THE NORTH AMERICAN RESEARCH STRATEGY FOR TROPOSPHERIC OZONE (NARSTO) PROGRAM

BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY

BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE

COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
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REVIEW OF THE NARSTO DRAFT REPORT: AN ASSESSMENT OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE POLLUTION–A NORTH AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE REVIEW OF THE NARSTO DRAFT REPORT: AN ASSESSMENT OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE POLLUTION–A NORTH AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE COMMITTEE TO ASSESS THE NORTH AMERICAN RESEARCH STRATEGY FOR TROPOSPHERIC OZONE (NARSTO) PROGRAM BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS WASHINGTON, D.C.

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REVIEW OF THE NARSTO DRAFT REPORT: AN ASSESSMENT OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE POLLUTION–A NORTH AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This project was supported by Grant No. X-825288-01-0 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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REVIEW OF THE NARSTO DRAFT REPORT: AN ASSESSMENT OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE POLLUTION–A NORTH AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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REVIEW OF THE NARSTO DRAFT REPORT: AN ASSESSMENT OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE POLLUTION–A NORTH AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE This page in the original is blank.

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REVIEW OF THE NARSTO DRAFT REPORT: AN ASSESSMENT OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE POLLUTION–A NORTH AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE COMMITTEE TO ASSESS THE NORTH AMERICAN RESEARCH STRATEGY FOR TROPOSPHERIC OZONE (NARSTO) PROGRAM MILTON RUSSELL (Chair), Joint Institute for Energy and Environment, and University of Tennessee (Emeritus), Knoxville, Tennessee HUMBERTO BRAVO, Circuito Exterior, Ciudad Universitaria, Mexico City, Mexico CHARLES KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts ALLAN LEGGE, Biosphere Solutions, Calgary, Alberta, Canada SHAW LIU, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia JENNIFER LOGAN, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts GREGORY MCRAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts JENNIE MOODY, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, Virginia WARREN WHITE, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri Staff RAYMOND WASSEL, Project Director LAURIE GELLER, Program Officer ROBERT CROSSGROVE, Editor TRACIE HOLBY, Senior Project Assistant RUTH DANOFF, Senior Project Assistant

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REVIEW OF THE NARSTO DRAFT REPORT: AN ASSESSMENT OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE POLLUTION–A NORTH AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY GORDON ORIANS (Chair), University of Washington, Seattle, Washington DONALD MATTISON (Vice Chair), March of Dimes, White Plains, New York DAVID ALLEN, University of Texas, Austin, Texas INGRID C. BURKE, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia JOHN DOULL, The University of Kansas Medical Center, Kansas City, Kansas CHRISTOPHER B. FIELD, Carnegie Institute of Washington, Stanford, California JOHN GERHART, University of California, Berkeley, California J. PAUL GILMAN, Celera Genomics, Rockville, Maryland BRUCE D. HAMMOCK, University of California, Davis, California MARK HARWELL, University of Miami, Miami, Florida ROGENE HENDERSON, Lovelace Respiratory Research Institute, Albuquerque, New Mexico CAROL HENRY, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia BARBARA HULKA, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina JAMES F. KITCHELL, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin DANIEL KREWSKI, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario JAMES A. MACMAHON, Utah State University, Logan, Utah MARIO J. MOLINA, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts CHARLES O'MELIA, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland WILLEM F. PASSCHIER, Health Council of the Netherlands KIRK SMITH, University of California, Berkeley, California MARGARET STRAND, Oppenheimer Wolff Donnelly & Bayh, LLP, Washington, D.C. TERRY F. YOSIE, Chemical Manufacturers Association, Arlington, Virginia Senior Staff JAMES J. REISA, Director DAVID J. POLICANSKY, Associate Director and Senior Program Director for Applied Ecology CAROL A. MACZKA, Senior Program Director for Toxicology and Risk Assessment RAYMOND A. WASSEL, Senior Program Director for Environmental Sciences and Engineering KULBIR BAKSHI, Program Director for the Committee on Toxicology LEE R. PAULSON, Program Director for Resource Management ROBERTA M. WEDGE, Program Director for Risk Analysis

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REVIEW OF THE NARSTO DRAFT REPORT: AN ASSESSMENT OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE POLLUTION–A NORTH AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE ERIC J. BARRON (Co-Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania JAMES R. MAHONEY (Co-Chair), International Technology Corporation, Washington, DC SUSAN K. AVERY, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado LANCE F. BOSART, State University of New York at Albany, New York MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York at Stony Brook, New York JOHN IMBRIE, Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island CHARLES E. KOLB, Aerodyne Research, Inc., Billerica, Massachusetts ROGER A. PIELKE, JR., National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ROBERT T. RYAN, WRC-TV, Washington, D.C. MARK R. SCHOEBERL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland JOANNE SIMPSON, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland NIEN DAK SZE, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Cambridge, Massachusetts ROBERT A. WELLER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts ERIC F. WOOD, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey Staff ELBERT W. (JOE) FRIDAY, JR., Director LAURIE GELLER, Program Officer PETER A. SCHULTZ, Program Officer DIANE GUSTAFSON, Administrative Assistant ROBIN MORRIS, Financial Associate TENECIA A. BROWN, Senior Program Assistant CARTER W. FORD, Project Assistant

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REVIEW OF THE NARSTO DRAFT REPORT: AN ASSESSMENT OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE POLLUTION–A NORTH AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER (Chair), University of Virginia, Charlottesville RICHARD A. CONWAY, Union Carbide Corporation (Retired), S. Charleston, West Virginia LYNN GOLDMAN, Johns Hopkins School of Hygiene and Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland THOMAS E. GRAEDEL, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut THOMAS J. GRAFF, Environmental Defense Fund, Oakland, California EUGENIA KALNAY, University of Maryland, College Park DEBRA KNOPMAN, Progressive Policy Institute, Washington, DC BRAD MOONEY, J. Brad Mooney Associates, Ltd., Arlington, Virginia HUGH C. MORRIS, El Dorado Gold Corporation, Vancouver, British Columbia H. RONALD PULLIAM, University of Georgia, Athens MILTON RUSSELL, Joint Institute for Energy and Environment and University of Tennessee (Emeritus), Knoxville ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado ANDREW R. SOLOW, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts E-AN ZEN, University of Maryland, College Park MARY LOU ZOBACK, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California Staff ROBERT M. HAMILTON, Executive Director GREGORY H. SYMMES, Associate Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative and Financial Officer DAVID FEARY, Scientific Reports Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Administrative Assistant/Technology Analyst

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REVIEW OF THE NARSTO DRAFT REPORT: AN ASSESSMENT OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE POLLUTION–A NORTH AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE OTHER REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY Waste Incineration and Public Health (1999) Hormonally Active Agents in the Environment (1999) Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: II. Evaluating Research Progress and Updating the Portfolio (1999) Ozone-Forming Potential of Reformulated Gasoline (1999) Risk-Based Waste Classification in California (1999) Arsenic in Drinking Water (1999) Research Priorities for Airborne Particulate Matter: I. Immediate Priorities and a Long-Range Research Portfolio (1998) Brucellosis in the Greater Yellowstone Area (1998) The National Research Council's Committee on Toxicology: The First 50 Years (1997) Toxicologic Assessment of the Army's Zinc Cadmium Sulfide Dispersion Tests (1997) Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet (1996) Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest (1996) Science and the Endangered Species Act (1995) Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries (1995) Biologic Markers (5 reports, 1989-1995) Review of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (3 reports, 1994-1995) Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994) Ranking Hazardous Waste Sites for Remedial Action (1994) Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children (1993) Issues in Risk Assessment (1993) Setting Priorities for Land Conservation (1993) Protecting Visibility in National Parks and Wilderness Areas (1993) Dolphins and the Tuna Industry (1992) Hazardous Materials on the Public Lands (1992) Science and the National Parks (1992) Animals as Sentinels of Environmental Health Hazards (1991) Assessment of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program, Volumes I-IV (1991-1993) Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants (1991) Monitoring Human Tissues for Toxic Substances (1991) Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (1991) Decline of the Sea Turtles (1990) Copies of these reports may be ordered from the National Academy Press (800) 624-6242 (202) 334-3313 www.nap.edu

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REVIEW OF THE NARSTO DRAFT REPORT: AN ASSESSMENT OF TROPOSPHERIC OZONE POLLUTION–A NORTH AMERICAN PERSPECTIVE ACKNOWLEDGMENTS During the course of its deliberations, the National Research Council (NRC) Committee to Assess the North American Research Strategy for Tropospheric Ozone (NARSTO) Program received useful information and perspectives from the following persons, who made presentations to the committee: William Chameides, Georgia Institute of Technology, Co-chair NARSTO synthesis team; William Clark, Harvard University; Kenneth Demerjian, State University of New York at Albany, Co-chair NARSTO synthesis team; Jerome Hales, NARSTO management coordinator; George Hidy, University of Alabama; James Mahoney, International Technology Corporation; Richard Moss, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Ronald Patterson, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Kenneth Schere, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that assist the NRC in making the final report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Ronald Berglund, HBC Engineering; Javier Miranda Martin del Campo, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico (UNAM); William Clark, Harvard University; Ian Folkins, Dalhousie University; Thomas Graedel, Yale University; Robert Harriss, National Center for Atmospheric Research; John Kowalczyk, Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (retired); Timothy Larson, University of Washington; and John Seinfeld, California Institute of Technology. The individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions. It must be emphasized, however, that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the NRC. The committee was assisted by the following members of the NRC staff: Raymond Wassel, James Reisa, Elbert (Joe) Friday, Jr., William Sprigg, Laurie Geller, K. John Holmes, Ruth Danoff, and Tracie Holby. Robert Crossgrove edited the report.