Measuring the Science and Engineering Enterprise

PRIORITIES FOR THE DIVISION OF SCIENCE RESOURCES STUDIES

Committee to Assess the Portfolio of The Division of Science Resources Studies of NSF

Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel

Committee on National Statistics

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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Measuring the Science and Engineering Enterprise: Priorities for the Division of Science Resources Studies Measuring the Science and Engineering Enterprise PRIORITIES FOR THE DIVISION OF SCIENCE RESOURCES STUDIES Committee to Assess the Portfolio of The Division of Science Resources Studies of NSF Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel Committee on National Statistics National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Measuring the Science and Engineering Enterprise: Priorities for the Division of Science Resources Studies NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This study was supported by Contract No. SRS-9802651 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-06892-4 Additional copies of this report are available: National Academy Press (http://www.nap.edu) 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Box 285 Washington, D.C. 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Measuring the Science and Engineering Enterprise: Priorities for the Division of Science Resources Studies THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Measuring the Science and Engineering Enterprise: Priorities for the Division of Science Resources Studies Committee to Assess the Portfolio Of the Science Resources Studies Division of NSF Janice Madden, University of Pennsylvania (Chair) Paul Biemer, Research Triangle Institute Bronwyn Hall, University of California, Berkeley and Oxford University T. R. Lakshmanan, Boston University Eduardo Macagno, Columbia University Robert H. McGuckin, The Conference Board John McTague, Ford Motor Company (retired) David Mowery, University of California, Berkeley Julie Norris, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Paula Stephan, Georgia State University Staff Peter H. Henderson, Study Director, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel Constance F. Citro, Senior Program Officer, Committee on National Statistics Margaret Boone, Consultant Martha Bohman, Administrative Assistant, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel Edvin Hernandez, Administrative Assistant, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel Margaret Petrochenkov, Publications Specialist, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel

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Measuring the Science and Engineering Enterprise: Priorities for the Division of Science Resources Studies Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel 1998-1999 Advisory Committee M. R. C. Greenwood, University of California, Santa Cruz (Chair) John D. Wiley, University of Wisconsin, Madison (Vice Chair) Ronald G. Ehrenberg, Cornell University Carlos Gutierrez, California State University Stephen J. Lukasik, Independent Consultant William H. Miller, University of California, Berkeley (ex officio) Claudia Mitchell-Kernan, University of California, Los Angeles Edward Penhoet, University of California, Berkeley Tadataka Yamada, SmithKline Beecham Corporation A. Thomas Young, Lockheed Martin Corporation (retired) Charlotte Kuh, Executive Director Marilyn Baker, Associate Executive Director Committee on National Statistics 1998-1999 John E. Rolph, University of Southern California (Chair) Joseph Altonji, Northwestern University. Julie Davanzo, The RAND Corporation William Eddy, Carnegie Mellon University William D. Kalsbeek, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill Roderick Little, University of Michigan Thomas A. Louis, University of Minnesota Charles F. Manski, Northwestern University William Nordhaus, Yale University Janet Norwood, the Urban Institute Edward B. Perrin, University of Washington Paul Rosenbaum, University of Pennsylvania Franscisco Samaniego, University of California, Davis Richard Schmalensee, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Andrew A. White, Acting Director

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Measuring the Science and Engineering Enterprise: Priorities for the Division of Science Resources Studies This page in the original is blank.

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Measuring the Science and Engineering Enterprise: Priorities for the Division of Science Resources Studies Acknowledgements This report has benefited from input from various individuals. The committee thanks Bennett I. Bertenthal, former NSF Assistant Director for the Directorate of Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences, for sharing his insights with the committee and providing support for this study. The committee acknowledges division and program managers in the Division of Science Resources Studies who made presentations to the committee: Jeanne E. Griffith, former Director; Alan R. Tupek, former Deputy Director; Ronald S. Fecso, Chief Mathematical Statistician; Jennifer S. Bond, Director, Science and Engineering Indicators Program; Mary J. Golladay, Director, Human Resources Statistics Program; John E. Jankowski, Director, Research and Development Statistics Program; and Rolf F. Lehming, Director, Integrated Studies Program. The committee also acknowledges SRS staff who participated in focus groups for this study: Carolyn B. Arena, Richard J. Bennof, Joan S. Burrelli, Mary V. Burke, Lawrence Burton, Joanne P. Carr, Deborah A. Collins, Eileen Collins, John R. Gawalt, Tanya R. Gore, Julia Harriston, Jennifer R. Held, Susan T. Hill, Anne M. Houghton, Theodosia L. Jacobs, Jean M. Johnson, Kelly H. Kang, Ann T. Lanier, Mary M. Machen, Ronald L. Meeks, Richard E. Morrison, Melissa F. Pollak, Alan I. Rapoport, Lawrence M. Rausch, Mark C. Regets, Steven Payson, R. Keith Wilkinson, and Raymond M. Wolfe. The committee also acknowledges those who made presentations at the workshop or made themselves available for interviews: James Adams, University of Florida; Thomas Arrison, National Research Council; John Auerbach, Council on Competitiveness; Wendy Baldwin, National Institutes of Health; Arthur Bienenstock, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; John Birge, University of Michigan; William Blanpied, National Science Foundation; Erich Bloch, Council on Competitiveness; William Boesman, Congressional Research Service; Joseph Bordogna, National Science Foundation; John Boright, National Research Council; Lewis Branscomb, Harvard University; Marta Cehelsky, National Science Board; Jasemine Chambers, U.S. Patent and Trademark Office; Elinor Champion, U.S. Bureau of the Census; Joseph Cark, American Chemical Society; Mary Clutter, National Science Foundation; Linda Cohen, University of California, Irvine; Robert W. Correll, National Science Foundation; Brenda Cox, Mathematica Policy Research; Robert Dauffenbach, University of Oklahoma; Denice Denton, University of Washington; Paul Doremus, National Institute of Standards and Technology; Steve Eule, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives; Irwin Feller, Pennsylvania State University; Michael Finn, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education; Clifford Gabriel, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; Catherine Gaddy, Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology; Howard Garrison, Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology; Fred Gault, Statistics Canada; Gerald Hane, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; Sarah Horrigan, U.S. Office of Management and Budget; Susanne Huttner, University of California System; Adam Jaffe, Brandeis University; Ronald Jarmin, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Bureau of the Census; Joseph Jasinski, IBM Research; Gretchen Jordan, Sandia National Laboratories; Thomas Kalil, National Economic Council, Executive Office of the President; Philip Kiko, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives; Kei Koizumi, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Stephen J. Lukasik, Independent Consultant; Pete Maggiore, State of New Mexico; Shirley Malcom, American Association for the Advancement of Science; Daniel Malkin, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development; Dominique Martin-Rovet, Embassy of France; Bernard McDonald, National Science Foundation; Ray Merenstein, Research! America; Susan Mitchell, Mathematica Policy Research; Duncan Moore, White House Office of Science and Technology Policy; Julia Moore, National Science Foundation; Stephen Nelson, American Association for the Advancement of

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Measuring the Science and Engineering Enterprise: Priorities for the Division of Science Resources Studies Science; Janet Norwood, The Urban Institute; Sumiye Okubo, Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce; Linda Parker, National Science Foundation; David Radzanowski, U.S. Office of Management and Budget; J. Thomas Ratchford, George Mason University; Proctor Reid, National Academy of Engineering; Sherwin Rosen, University of Chicago; Michael Seiverts, National Science Foundation; Leslie B. Sims, University of Iowa; Deborah Stine, National Academy of Sciences; Michael Teitelbaum, Sloan Foundation; Charles Vest, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; James Voytuk, National Research Council; Katherine Wallman, U.S. Office of Management and Budget; Daniel Werfel, U.S. Office of Management and Budget; James D. Wilson, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives; and Patrick Windham, R. Wayne Sayers and Associates. The committee also wishes to thank the Council of Graduate Schools for its help in organizing two sessions at its summer workshop for graduate deans in Santa Fe, New Mexico in 1998 where this study was also discussed. This report has been reviewed by persons chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The purposes of this independent review are to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the study committee in making its report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards of objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following for their participation in the review of this report: Richard Attiyeh, University of California, San Diego; Daniel Berg, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute; Julie Da Vanzo, the RAND Corporation; William F. Eddy, Carnegie-Mellon University; Michael Finn, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Technology; Christopher Hill, George Mason University; C. Dan Mote, University of Maryland, College Park; and the report review coordinator, A. Thomas Young. Although those persons have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the study committee. The project and production of the report was aided by the invaluable help of National Research Council professional staff, principally Peter Henderson, study director, Education and Career Studies Unit, Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, and Constance Citro, senior program officer, Committee on National Statistics. Peter devoted countless hours to organizing the wide ranging ideas of the committee into a coherent structure and to crafting prose that appropriately transmitted the nuances of complex committee discussions. His patience and energy were critical to the creation of a committee consensus. Margaret Boone of Policy Research Methods, Inc., Thomas Arrison of the NRC's Policy Division, and Dr. Citro conducted interviews and focus groups for this study. Edvin Hernandez ably organized meetings of the study committee. Martha Bohman provided administrative support for the study. The committee also wishes to express its thanks to Charlotte Kuh, executive director of OSEP, and Marilyn Baker, associate executive director of OSEP, for their valuable insights on the issues the study addresses. Janice Madden Chair Committee to Assess the Portfolio of the Science Resources Studies Division of NSF

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Measuring the Science and Engineering Enterprise: Priorities for the Division of Science Resources Studies Contents Executive Summary   1 1   Introduction   11     Scope of Study,   12     Methods of Study,   13     The Report,   14 Part I: SRS as a Statistical Agency   15 2   History and Assessment of SRS   17     Evolution of SRS Data Programs,   17     Assessing SRS,   29 3   Dimensions of Relevance   37     Relevance of Data Concepts,   38     Data Linkages,   46     Data Currency,   51 Part II: Relevant Data for Science Engineering Resources   57 4   Science and Engineering Human Resources   59     Graduate Education of Scientists and Engineers,   59     Issues in the Science and Engineering Labor Market,   65     Data Users and External Researchers,   77 5   Research and Development: Funding, Performance, and Innovation   79     The Changing Organization of R&D,   79     Data for Research and Innovation Policy,   87

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Measuring the Science and Engineering Enterprise: Priorities for the Division of Science Resources Studies 6   Recommendations   100     Ensuring Relevance and Establishing Priorities,   100     Improving Data Relevance,   106 References   111 Appendices     A   Interview and Focus Group Guides   117 B   Agenda, Workshop on Data to Describe Resources for the Changing Science and Engineering Enterprise, September 18-19, 1998, Washington, D.C.   127 C   Recommendations from Surveying the Nation's Scientists And Engineers (NRC 1989)   132 D   Alternative Sampling Frames for SRS Personnel Surveys   138 E   Biographical Sketches of Committee Members   143 List of Tables 2-1   Fiscal 1999 (estimated) and 2000 (requested) Budgets for Major Federal Statistical Agencies (millions of dollars)   31 3-1   Biological Science Fine Field Categories in the 1997 Survey of Earned Doctorates (SED), the 1997 Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and Engineering (GSPSE), and the 1997 National Survey of College Graduates (NSCG)   49 3-2   Time Elapse for SRS Surveys between Reference Month and Data Release Month (data displayed by calendar year of reference month)   54 4-1   Full-Time Graduate Students in Science and Engineering Fields, by Mechanism and Source of Financial Support, 1997   60 4-2   Employed Doctoral Scientists and Engineers by Sector of Employment, 1987-1995   74 5-1   Federal Obligations to Universities and Colleges for Research Compared to Federally-Funded Research and Development Expenditures, by Field, 1993 and 1997   96

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Measuring the Science and Engineering Enterprise: Priorities for the Division of Science Resources Studies List of Figures 2-1   Organization of the Division of Science Resources Studies   18 3-1   Survey Reference Data and Data Release Date for the 1995 and 1997 Cycles of the Survey of Doctorate Recipients   52 5-1   Distribution of Combined Industry and Federal Agency Spending on Research and Development across R&D Categories, 1975-1997   82 5-2   Percentage of Total Industrial R&D Performed by Manufacturing and Service Firms, 1973-1994.   83 5-3   Federally-Funded R&D for National Defense and Civilian Functions, Fiscal Years 1955-2000 (millions of constant 1992 dollars)   85 5-4   Federal Civilian Research and Development Funds, by Budget Function, Fiscal Years 1961-1998 (millions of constant 1992 dollars)   86 5-5   SRS Data on Federal Obligations to Universities and Colleges for Research Compared to SRS Data on Federally-Funded Academic Research and Development Expenditures, 1971-1997   95 List of Boxes 2-1   Principal Surveys in the SRS Human Resources Statistics Program   21 2-2   Definitions of Research and Development   23 2-3   Principal Surveys in the SRS Research and Development Statistics Program   24 2-4   SRS Issue Briefs Published in Fiscal Year 1999 (through May 1999)   28 2-5   National Science Board, Science and Engineering Indicators—1998, Contents   30 D-1   Illustrative Approximate Sample Sizes for Estimates of Scientists and Engineers: NSF SESTAT, March CPS, ACS   142

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Measuring the Science and Engineering Enterprise: Priorities for the Division of Science Resources Studies Abbreviations in the Report AEA American Economics Association AAAS American Association for the Advancement of Science AGS Association of Graduate Schools AAU Association of American Universities BLS U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CATI Computer-assisted telephone interviewing CGS Council of Graduate Schools CNSTAT NRC Committee on National Statistics COSEPUP Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy CPST Commission on Professionals in Science and Technology CRADA Cooperative Research and Development Agreement CRS Congressional Research Service DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency DOD U.S. Department of Defense DOE U.S. Department of Energy DDP Doctorate Data Project ETS Educational Testing Service FFRDCs Federally funded research and development centers FS&T Federal science and technology (budget) FTE Full-time equivalent GRE Graduate Record Examination GSPSE Survey of Graduate Students and Postdoctorates in Science and Engineering HRS Human Resources Statistics IPEDS Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System IT Information Technology NAS National Academy of Sciences NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCES National Center for Education Statistics NCRA National Cooperative Research Act of 1994 NEC. Not elsewhere classified NEH National Endowment for the Humanities NIH National Institutes of Health NRC National Research Council NRSEP National Register of Scientific and Engineering Personnel NSCG National Survey of College Graduates NSCRG National Survey of Recent College Graduates NSB National Science Board NSF National Science Foundation OMB U.S. Office of Management and Budget OSTP U.S. Office of Science and Technology Policy PI Principal Investigator PRA NSF Division of Policy Research and Analysis R&D Research and Development RD-1 Survey of Industrial Research and Development RDS Research and Development Statistics RJV Research Joint Venture S&E Science and Engineering SBE Directorate of Social, Behavioral, and Economic Sciences SED Survey of Earned Doctorates SESTAT Scientists and Engineers Statistical Data System SDR Survey of Doctorate Recipients SRS Division of Science Resources Studies STEP NRC Board on Science, Technology, and Economic Policy STPDS Scientific and Technical Personnel Data System WebCASPAR Web-based Computer-Assisted Science Policy Analysis and Research System