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APPENDIX F DATA ON PUBLICATION RECORDS Data for these measures were provided by a subcontractor, Computer Horizons, Inc. A detailed description of the derivation of these measures and examples of their use is given in: Francis Narin, Evaluative Bibliometrics: The Use of Publications and Citations Analysis in the Evaluation of Scientific Activity, Report to the National Science Foundation, March 1976. The following pages have been excerpted from Chapters VI and VII of this report and describe operational considerations in compiling the publication records included here (measure 15) and the methodology used in determining the "influence" of published articles (measure 16) 170 .

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171 VI. OPERATIONAL CONSIDERATIONS A. Basics of Publication and Citation Analysis The first section of this chapter discusses the major stages of publication and citation analysis techniques in evaluative bibliometrics. Later sections of the chapter consider publica- tion and citation count parameters in further detail, including discussions of data bases, of field-dependent characteristics of the literature, and of some cautions and hazards in perform- ing citation analyses for individual scientists. The basic stages which must be kept in mind when doing a publication or citation analysis are briefly summarized in Figure 6-1. Type of Publication For a publication analysis the fundamental decision is which type of publication to count. A basic count will include all regular scientific articles. However, notes are often count- ed since some engineering and other journals often contain notes with significant technical content. Reviews may be included. Letters-to-the-editor must also be considered as a possible cate- gory for inclusion, since some important journals are sometimes classified as letter journals. For example, publications in Physical Review Letters were classified as letters by the Science 1970, although they are now classified Citation Index prior to as articles. For most counts in the central core of the scientific lit- erature, articles, notes and reviews are used as a measure of scientific output. When dealing with engineering fields, where many papers are presented at meetings accompanied by reprints and published proceedings, meeting presentations must also be considered. In some applied fields, i.e., agriculture, aero- space and nuclear engineering, where government support has been particularly comprehensive, the report literature may also be im- portant. Unfortunately, reports generally contain few refer- ences, and citations to them are limited so they are not amenable to the normal citation analyses. Books, of course, are a major type of publication, espec- ially in the social sciences where they are often used instead of a series of journal articles. In bibliometrics a weighting of n articles equal to one book is frequently used; no uniform- ly acceptable value of n is available. A few of the papers discussed in Chapter V contain such measures.

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172 CJ7 U) z 6 z o - cn J z ~S o - C) m CD - O O C ~S ~ ~ Z ~ O ~_ C~ ~ 1 1 LU ,( UJ Z ~ ~S J CC O $ z U~ 1~ ~ O _ C~~ ~ ~ J o Ul ! ~ Z ~ ~ ~( J CL ~ ~ CC m Cr O `~. I ~n ~n ~ r' I c~ ~n tr: ~.u tIJ cn J ~S Z ~L C~ Z,~OZ t?I I~: I UJ ~r ~S UJ l.Ll ~n > ~ ~ U,l W tr J ~ \_ _ U., ~n m O UJ ~ O: CC U) CL UJ C~ U~ Z O :' Z J ~ O Z Z Ul 0O ~ Z C U. Z C} ~ ~ ~ 1 z U~ ,8 J `~ UJ Z L,` ~ ~m Z o, U. 0 U" Ul ~ o J ~ 8 ~ ~ ~n z ~n z ~n n ~ ~ J ~ Z t~ 4,9 n ~ ~ ~ ~ z <~, r, ~ 8 I . c, z ~ ~r 0 > 0 i~ ~ ~ ~n c' ~ u, _ ~ _ ~ 0 ~ r '.u ~ al m U) =_. Z~ ~ g ~ C == Z U.' _ _ 1 ~D ~: 3 H U] UJ H Z _ ~ z z o H E~ E~ C) a z z o H E~ H m :D P4 o u' E" u'

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173 A second important decision in making a publication count is to select the time span of interest. In the analysis of the publications of an institution a fixed time span, usually one year or more, is most appropriate. In comparing publication histories of groups of scientists, their professional ages (normally defined as years since attaining the PhD degree) must be comparable so that the build-up of publications at the begin- ning of a career or the decline at the end will not complicate the results. A typical scientist's first publication appears soon after his dissertation; if he continued working as a sci- entist, his publications may continue for thirty or more years. The accurate control of the time span of a count is not as trivial as it might seem. Normally, the publication count is made from secondary sources (abstracting or indexing services) rather than from scanning the publications individually. Since most abstracting and indexing sources have been expanding their coverage over time, any publication count covering more than a few years must give careful consideration to changes in coverage. Furthermore, the timeliness of the secondary sources varies widely, with sources dependent on outside abstracters lagging months or even years behind. Since these abstracting lags may depend upon language, field and country of origin, they are a particular problem in international publication counts. The Science Citation Index is one of the most current secondary sources, with some80% to 90% of a given year's publi- cations in the SCI for that year. Of course, no abstracting or indexing service can be per- fect, since some journals are actually published months after their listed publication dates. Nevertheless, variations in timeliness are large from one service to another. 3. Comprehensiveness of Source Coverage An important consideration in making a publication count is the comprehensiveness of the source coverage. Most abstract- ing and indexing sources cover some journals completely, cover other journals selectively, and omit some journals in their field of interest. The Science Citation Index is an exception in that it indexes each and every important entry from any jour- nal it covers. This is one of the major advantages in using the SCI as a data base. Chemical Abstracts and Biological Abstracts have a group of journals which they abstract complete- ly, coupled with a much larger set of journals from which they abstract selectively, based upon the appropriateness of the article to the subject coverage. In some cases the abstracter or indexer may make a quality judgment, based on his estimate of the importance or the quality of the article or upon his

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174 knowledge of whether similar information has appeared elsewhere; Excerpta Medica is a comprehensive abstracting service for which articles are included only if they meet the indexers' quality criteria. Some data on the extent of coverage of the major secondary sources is presented in Section D of this chapter. 4. Multiple Authorships and Affiliations Attributing credits for multiple authorships and affili- ations is a significant problem in publication and citation anal- ysis. In some scientific papers the authors are listed alpha- betically; in others the first author is the primary author; still others use different conventions. These conventions have been been discussed by Crane1 and by other social scientists.2 There does not seem to be any reasonable way to deal with the attribution problem, except to attribute a fraction of a publi- cation to each of the authors. For example, an article which has three authors would have one-third of an article attributed to each author. The amount of multiple authorship unfortunately differs from country to country and from field to field. Several studies have investigated the problem, but no comprehensive data exists.3 Multiple authorship takes on particular importance when counting an individual's publications since membership on a large research team may lead to a single scientist being a co- author of ten or more publications per year. This number of publications is far in excess of the normal publication rate -of one to two articles per year per scientist. Multiple authorship problems arise less often in institu- tional publication counts since there are seldom more than one or two institutions involved in one publication. A particularly vexing aspect of multiple authorship is the first author citation problem: almost all citations are to the first author in a multi-authored publication. As a result, a researcher who is second author of five papers may receive no Diana Crane, "Social Structure in a Group of Scientists: A Test of the 'Invisible College' Hypothesis," American Socio- logical Review 34 (June 1969):335-352. James E. McCauly, "Multiple Authorship," Science 141 (August 1963):579. Beverly L. Clark, "Multiple Authorship Trends in Scientific Papers," Science 143 (February 1964):822-824. 3Harriet Zuckerman, "Nobel Laureates in Science: Patterns of Productivity, Collaboration, and Authorship," American Sociolgoical Review 32 (June 1967):391-403.

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175 citations under his own name, even though the papers he co-auf ed may be highly cited. Because of this, a citation count hor- for a person must account for the citations which appear under the names of the first authors of publications for which the author of interest was a secondary author. This can lead to a substan- tial amount of tedious additional work, since a list of first authors must be generated for all of the subjects' multi-author- ed papers. Citations to each of these first authors must then be found, the citations of interest noted, and these citations fractionally attributed to the original author. Since multiple years of the Citation Index are often involved, the amount of clerical work searching from volume to volume and from author to author, and citation to citation can be quite large. A note of caution about the handling of multiple author- ship in the Corporate Index of the Science Citation Index: SCI lists a publication giving all the corporate affiliations, but always with the first author's name. Thus a publication by Jones and Smith where Jones is at Harvard and Smith is at Yale would be listed in the Corporate Index under Harvard with the name Jones and also under Yale with the name Jones. To find the organization with which the various authors are affiliated, the original article must be obtained. Although the publisher of the Science Citation Index, the Institute for Scientific Information, tries to maintain a con- sistent policy in attributing institutional affiliations, when authors have multiple affiliations the number of possible var- iants is large. In the SCI data base on magnetic tape, suffic- ient information is included to assign a publication with auth- ors from a number of different institutions in a reasonably, fair way to those institutions; however, in the printed Corpor- ate Index, one has to refer to the Source Index to find the actual number of authors, or to the paper itself to find the affiliations of each of the authors. 5. Completeness of Available Data Another consideration in a publication analysis is the completeness of data available in the secondary source, since looking up hundreds or thousands of publications individually is tedious and expensive. One difficulty here is that most of the abstracting and indexing sources are designed for retrieval and not for analysis. As a result, some of the parameters which are of greatest analytical importance, such as the affiliation of the author and his source of financial support, are often omitted. Furthermore, some of the abstracting sources are cross-indexed in complex ways, so that a publication may only be partially described at any one point, and reference must be made to a companion volume to find even such essential data as the author's name. While intellectually trivial, these

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176 searches can be exceedingly time consuming when analyzing large numbers of publications. The specific data which are consistently available in the secondary sources are the basic bibliographic information: i.e., authors' name, journal or report title, volume, page, eta. This information is the basic data used for retrieval, and since the abstracting and indexing services are retrieval oriented, this bibliographic information is always included. Data which are less consistently available in the seeon- dary source are the authors' affiliation and the authors' rank or title. Both of these are of interest in analysis. For ex- ample, the ranking of universities based on publication in a given subject area is often of interest. This ranking can be tabulated only from a secondary source which gives the authors' university affiliation. 6. Support Acknowledgements The source of the authors' financial support is seldom given in any secondary source, although it is now being added to the MEDLARS data base. Since this financial data can be used to define the fraction of a subject literature which is being supported by a particular corporate body such as a governmental agency, the data are of substantial evaluative interest. The amount of acknowledgement of agency support in the scientific literature has changed over time. In a Computer Horizons study completed in 1973 the amount of agency support acknowledgement was tabulated in twenty major journals from five different fields.4 Table 6-1 summarizes those support acknowledgements for 1969 and 1972. In 1969, only 67% of the articles in 20 major journals acknowledged financial support. By 1972, the percentage of articles acknowledging financial support had risen to approx- imately 85%. The table shows that the sources of support differ from one field to another and also shows that the fields of in- terest to these sources differ as well. For example, the National Science Foundation is the major source of acknowledged support in mathematics, while the National Institutes of Health clearly dominate the support of biology. Chemistry is the field with the largest ambient of non-government (private sector) support in the U.S. Note also that the 20 journals used were major journals in their fields; as less prestigious journals are examined, the amount of support acknowledgement generally decreases. 4 Computer Horizons, Ine., Evaluation of Research in the Physical Sciences Based on Publications and Citations, Washington, _ D.C., National Science Foundation, Contract No. NSF-C627, November, 1973.

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177 0 a, 0 ~4 a, A: ~4 al U) o ~ o At: ~ al z ~ ~ ~ a, o ~ ~ ~ o' Z ~ o~ H O~ ,4 a ~ ~ S ~5 ~ 0\ ~ ~ 0 0 ~D Z o, _4 H I >~ t_ 1 i4 a~ ~n E~ 1 on Z m ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a~ E~ a ~ ~ H 3 tn a O ~ a Z O U] :>' tJ ~ =: ~ o~ E~ ~r; O P4 0 0 N U] ~ _' ~ S 0` Z ~ kD O3 x: ~: a) 4) 3 O U #5: 10 tD ~ 0` ~r ~ ~ ~D - 4 O ~ ~ ~4 _. CD N ~ ~1 (~ ~ ~ ~ ~? ~) _1 O1 _ 0 ~ ~ r~ ~ ~ a, 0 r~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ ~ r~ ~ c`) ~ ~ ~4 ~ ~ 0 ~ un d~ 0 co 0 r~ r~ ~ co a, C. a' ~ 0 0 dP a~ ~ u~ u, dP r~ 0\ C~ oN - 4 r' _~ ~ ~ N O _. dP a' O4 ~ u' U, U~ . ~ cn ~ v' C~ 3 C O C X ~: C 41) Ql (U O ~ := ~ ~ ~q =: ~ S ~ ~' cn ~ b] O FS ~ O ~ O C z z ~e ~ z 0 ~ 0 ~ ~

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178 In an attempt to account for the 15% of unacknowledged papers, a questionnaire was sent to all U.S. authors in the 1972 sample who did not acknowledge agency support. Almost 70% of the of sunnort responded to the , over two-thirds of their regular cited specific support, even though they rticle itself. Twelve per- gency or institutional sup- of graduate studies was in- authors who had not listed sources _ __~__ questionnaire. Of the authors who responded were supported by their institutions as part duties; approximately 20% of the respondents governmental agencies as sources of had not acknowledged these in the a _cent of the respondents listed no a port; research done as fulfillment eluded in this category. Overall, the 1972 tabulation and survey showed that 88% of the research reported in these prestigious journals was ex- ternally supported, and that 97% of the externally supported work was acknowledged as such. 7. Subject Classification Having constructed a basic list of publications, the next step in analysis is normally to subject classify the publica- tions. Either the journals or the papers themselves may be classified. When a large number of papers is to be analyzed, classification of the papers by the field of the journal can be very convenient. Such a classification implies, of course, a degree of homogeneity of publication which is normally ade- quate when analyzing hundreds of papers. Such a classification may not be sufficient for the analysis of the scientific pub- lications of one or a few individuals. Subject classification schemes differ from one abstract- ing and indexing service to another. Therefore, a comparison of a collection of papers based on the classification schemes of more than one abstracting and indexing service is almost hopeless. A classification of papers at the journal level has been used in the influence methodology discussed in Chapters VII through X. Citation Counts Citation counts are a tool in evaluative bibliometrics second in importance only to the counting and classification of publications. Citation counts may be used directly as a measure of the utilization or influence of a single publica- tion or of all the publications of an individual, a grant, con- tract, department, university, funding agency or country. Citation counts may be used to link individuals, institutions, and programs, since they show how one publication relates to another publication.

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179 In addition to these evaluative uses, citations also have important bibliometric uses, since the references from one paper to another define the structure of the scientific literature. Chapter III discusses how this type of analysis may be carried out at a detailed, micro-level to define closely related papers through bibliographic coupling and co-citation. That chapter also describes how citation analysis may be used at a macro- level to link fields and subfields through journal-to-journal mapping. The bibliometric characteristics of the literature also provide a numeric base against which evaluative parameters may be normalized. Some of the characteristics of the literature which are revealed by citation analysis are noted on Figure 6-1. These characteristics include: The dispersion of references: a measure of scientific "hardness", since in fields that are structured and have a central core of accepted knowledge, literature references tend to be quite concentrated. The concentration of papers and influence: another measure of centrality in a field, dependent upon whether or not a field has a core journal structure. The hierarchic dependency relationships between field, subfield and journals, including the comparison of numbers of references from field A to field B. compared with number of references from field B to field A: this comparison pro- vides a major justification for the pur- suit of basic research as a foundation of knowledge utilized by more applied areas. The linkages between fields, suLfields and journals: a measure of the flow of information, and of the importance of one sector of the scientific mosaic to another.

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180 VI I . THE I NFLUENCE METHODOLOGY A. Introduction In this chapter an influence methodology will be described which allows advanced publication and citation techniques to be applied to institutional aggregates of publications, such as those of departments, schools, programs, support agencies and countries, without performing an individual citation count. In essence, the influence procedure ascribes a weighted average set of properties to a collection of papers, such as the papers in a journal, rather than determining the citation rate for the papers on an individual basis. The influence methodology is completely general, and can be applied to journals, suLfields, fields, institutions or coun- tries. There are three separate aspects of the influence method- ology which are particularly pertinent to journals. These are 1. 2. A subject classification for each journal A research type (level) classification for the biomedical journals, and 3. Citation influence measures for each journal. It is the third of these, the citation influence measures, which add a quality or utilization aspect to the analysis. The influ- ence methodology assumes that, although citations to papers vary within a given journal, aggregates of publications can be char- acterized by the influence measures of the journals in which they appear. Chapter IX discusses this assumption in some de- tail. Older measures of influence all suffer from some defect which limits their use as evaluative measures. The total number of publications of an individual, school or country is a measure of total activity only; no inferences concerning importance may be drawn. The total number of citations to a set of publications, while incorporating a measure of peer group recognition, de- pends on the size of the set involved and has no meaning on an absolute scale. The journal "impact factor" introduced by Garfield is a size-independent measure, since it is defined as the ratio of the number of citations the journal receives to the number of publications in a specified earlier time period, 1 This 1Eugene Garfield, "Citation Analysis As a Tool in Journal Evaluation " Science 178 (November 3, 1972):471. ,

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181 measure, like the total number of citations, has no meaning on an absolute scale. In addition the impact factor suffers from three more significant limitations. Although the size of the journal, as reflected in the number of publications, is corrected for, the average length of individual papers appearing in the journal is not. Thus, journals which publish longer papers, namely re- view journals, tend to have higher impact factors. In fact the nine highest impact factors obtained by Carfield were for review journals. This measure can therefore not be used to - establish a "pecking order" for journal prestige. The second limitation is that the citations are unweighted, all citations being counted with equal weight, regardless of the citing journal. It seems more reasonable to give higher weight to a citation from a prestigious journal than to a citation from a peripheral one. The idea of counting a reference from a more prestigious journal more heavily has also been suggested by Kochen.2 A third limitation is that there is no normalization for the different referencing characteristics of different segments of the literature: a citation received by a biochemistry journal, in a field noted for its large numbers of references and short citation times, may be quite different in value from a citation in astronomy, where the overall citation density is much lower and the citation time lag much longer. In this section three related influence measures are de- veloped, each of which measures one aspect of a journal's in- fluence,with explicit recognition of the size factor. These measures are: (1) The influence weight of the journal: a size-independent measure of the weighted number of citations a jour- nal receives from other journals, normalized by the number of refer- ences the journal gives to other jour- nals. (2) The influence per publication for the journals: the weighted number of ci- tations each article, note or review in a journal receives from other journals. (3) The total influence of the journal: the influence per publication times the total number of publications. M.Kochen, Principles of Information Retrieval, (New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 1974), 93. ~

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182 B. Development of the_Weighting Scheme 1. units. The Citation Matrix ~ . A citation matrix may be used to describe the interactions among members of a set of publishing entities. These entities may, for example, be journals, institutions, individuals, fields of research, geographical subdivisions or levels of research methodology. The formalism to be developed is completely gener- al in that it may be applied to any such set. To emphasize this generality, a member of a set will be referred to as a unit rather than as a specific type of unit such as a journal. The citation matrix is the fundamental entity which con- tains the information describing the flow of influence among The matrix has the form / C11 C12 C21 C22 . . . Cln . . . C2n \ Cnl Cn2 . . . Cnn/ A distinction is made between the use of the terms "refer- ence" and "citation" depending on whether the issuing or receiv- ing unit is being discussed. Thus, a term Cij in the citation matrix indicates both the number of references unit i gives to unit j and the number of citations unit j receives from unit i. The time frame of a citation matrix must be clearly under- stood in order that a measure derived from it be given its proper interpretation. Suppose that the citation data are based on references issued in 1973. The citations received may be to papers in any year up through 1973. In general, the papers issuing the references will not be the same as those receiving the citations. Thus, any conclusions drawn from such a matrix assume an on-going, relatively constant nature for each of the units. For instance, if the units of study are journals, it is elative to each Journals in rapid- erefore have to be assumed that they have not changed in size r other and represent a constant subject area. ly changing fields and new journals would th treated with caution. A citation matrix for a specific time lag may also be form- ulated. This would link publications in one time period with publications in some specified earlier time period.

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183 2. Influence Weights For each unit in the set a measure of the influenc that unit will be extracted from the citation matrix. Bec total influence is clearly a size-dependent quantity, it i essential to distinguish between a size-independent measure of influence, to be called the influence weight, and the size- dependent total influence. me of ause ,s To make the idea of a size-independent measure more pre- cise, the following property of-such a measure may be specified: if a journal were randomly subdivided into smaller entities, each entity would have the same measure as the parent journal. The citation matrix may be thought of as an "input- output" matrix with the medium of exchange being the citation. Each unit gives out references and receives citations; it is above average if it has a "positive citation balance", i.e., receives more than it gives out. This reasoning provides a first order approximation to the weight of each unit, which is W(1) = total number of citations to the ith unit from other units ~ total number of references from the ith unit to other units This is the starting point for the iterative procedure for the calculation of the influence weights to be described below. The denominator of this expression is the row sum n Si = `7 ~ Cij j=1 corresponding to the ith unit of the citation matrix; it may be thought of as the "target size" which this unit presents to the referencing world. The influence weight, Wi, of the ith unit is defined as n 'I Wi = ~7 ~ k=1 Wk Cki - si In the sum, the number of cites to the ith unit from the kth unit is weighted by the weight of kth (referencing) unit. The number of cites is also divided by the target size Si of

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184 the unit i being cited. The n equations, one for each unit, pro- vide a self consistent "bootstrap" set of relations in which each unit plays a role in determining the weight of every other unit. The following summarizes the derivation of those weights. The equations defining the weights, i n ' k=1 ok Cki, i = 1, ,n tl) are a special case of a more general system of equations which may be written in the form l n . ~ Wk k=1 Here ~ Cki si Yki | iWi = 0. i = 1 .. ,n and Equation 1 is shown to be . (2) a special case of Equation 2 corresponding to ~ = 1. As will be explained shortly the system of equations given in (1) will not, in general, possess a non-zero solution; only for certain values of A called the eigenvalues of the system, will there be non- zero solutions. With the choice of target size Si, the value | = 1 is in fact an eigenvalue so that Equation 1 itself does possess a solution. `,T Using the notation ~ for the transpose of IT ~ ~ ik Ski defined by ; introducing the Kronecker delta symbol (1 i = k ilk tO i ~ k the equation can then be written

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185 ~ ( ~ ik - ~ ~ k) Wk = 0 . (3) k=1 This is a system of n homogeneous equations for the weights. In order that a solution for such a system exists, the determin- ant of the coefficients must vanish. This gives an nth order equation for the eigenvalues Y1 1 ~ Y2 1 . . . . in1 i12 /22 ~ . . . ~n2 . . . . . . . . ~ Y1 n )2n Finn ~ called the characteristic equation. = 0 (4) Only for values of ~ which satisfy this equation, does a non-zero solution for the W's exist. Moreover, Equation r3 does not determine the values of the Wk themselves, but at best determines their ratios. Equivalently the eigenvalue equation may be thought of as a vector equation for the vector unknown W TW1 ~ ., . ~ Wn} W = ~ w (5) from which it is clear that only the direction of W is determined. The normalization or scale factor is then fixed by the condition that the size-weighted average of the weights is 1, or

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186 n sk wk n 1 S. (6) This normalization assures that the weight values have an absolute as well as a relative meaning, with the value 1 representing an average value. Each root of the characteristic equation determines a solu- tion vector or eigenvector of the equation, but the weight vector being sought is the eigenvector corresponding to the largest eigenvalue. This can be seen from the consideration of an alter- native procedure for solving the system of equations, a procedure which also leads to the algorithm of choice. Consider an iterative process starting with equal weights for all units. The values (o) Hi = 1 can be thought of as zeroth order approximations to the weights. weights are then W (1) i = n ' k=1 C si The first order This ratio (total cites to a unit divided by the target size of the unit) is the simplest size-corrected citation measure and, in fact, corresponds to the impact measure used by Garfield. These values are then substituted into the right hand side of Equation 1 to obtain the next order of approximation. In gener- al, the mth order approximation is

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87 m wimp ~ W(m~l) C i = ~ w(m x Ski ~ ( ) k=1 i k=1 j=1 ji The exact weights are therefore Wi = Wi ~ ~ ~ ) j=1 m .~ :' This provides the most convenient numerical procedure for finding the weights, the whole iteration procedure being reduced to suc- cessive squarings of the ~ matrix. This procedure is closely related to the standard method for finding the dominant eigenvalue of a matrix. Since ~ = 1 is the largest eigenvalue, repeated su,uarings are all that is needed. If the largest eigenvalue had a value other than 1, the normalization condition, Equation 6, would have to be reimposed with each squaring. Convergence to three decimal places usually occurs with six squarings,corresponding to raising ~ to the 64th power.