DESIGNING THE 2010 CENSUS

First Interim Report

Panel on Research on Future Census Methods

Michael L. Cohen and Benjamin F. King, Editors

Committee on National Statistics

Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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DESIGNING THE 2010 CENSUS: First Interim Report DESIGNING THE 2010 CENSUS First Interim Report Panel on Research on Future Census Methods Michael L. Cohen and Benjamin F. King, Editors Committee on National Statistics Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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DESIGNING THE 2010 CENSUS: First Interim Report NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. The project that is the subject of this report is supported by funds provided by the Bureau of the Census, U. S. Department of Commerce, under contract number 50-YABC-8-66016. Support of the work of the Committee on National Statistics is provided by a consortium of federal agencies through a grant from the National Science Foundation (Number SBR-9709489). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for this project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-06944-0 Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 Call 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area). This report is also available on line at www.nap.edu Suggested citation: National Research Council (2000). Redesigning the 2010 Census: First Interim Report. Panel on Research on Future Census Methods, Committee on National Statistics. Washingotn, D.C.: National Academy Press. Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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DESIGNING THE 2010 CENSUS: First Interim Report THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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DESIGNING THE 2010 CENSUS: First Interim Report PANEL ON RESEARCH ON FUTURE CENSUS METHODS BENJAMIN F. KING (Chair), Boca Raton, FL DAVID A. BINDER, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario MICK P. COUPER, Survey Research Center, University of Michigan WILLIAM D. KALSBEEK, Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina SALLIE KELLER-MCNULTY, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM MICHAEL M. MEYER, Amazon.com, Seattle, WA DARYL PREGIBON, AT&T Laboratories-Research, Florham Park, NJ KEITH F. RUST, Westat, Inc., Rockville, MD JOSEPH J. SALVO, New York City Department of City Planning, NY JOSEPH L. SCHAFER, Department of Statistics, Pennsylvania State University ALLEN L. SCHIRM, Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, DC JOSEPH SEDRANSK, Department of Statistics, Case Western Reserve University, Cleveland DONALD YLVISAKER, Department of Statistics, University of California, Los Angeles MICHAEL L. COHEN, Study Director AGNES E. GASKIN, Senior Project Assistant

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DESIGNING THE 2010 CENSUS: First Interim Report COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL STATISTICS 1999-2000 JOHN E. ROLPH (Chair), Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California JOSEPH G. ALTONJI, Department of Economics, Northwestern University LAWRENCE D. BROWN, Department of Statistics,Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania JULIE DAVANZO, RAND, Santa Monica, CA WILLIAM F. EDDY, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University HERMANN HABERMANN, Statistics Division, United Nations WILLIAM KALSBEEK, Department of Biostatistics, University of North Carolina RODERICK J.A. LITTLE, School of Public Health, University of Michigan THOMAS A. LOUIS, Division of Biostatistics, University of Minnesota School of Public Health CHARLES F. MANSKI, Department of Economics, Northwestern University WILLIAM NORDHAUS, Department of Economics, Yale University EDWARD B. PERRIN, Department of Health Services, School of Public Health and Community Medicine, University of Washington FRANCISCO J. SAMANIEGO, Division of Statistics, University of California, Davis RICHARD L. SCHMALENSEE, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology MATTHEW D. SHAPIRO, Department of Economics and Survey Research Center, University of Michigan ANDREW A. WHITE, Director

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DESIGNING THE 2010 CENSUS: First Interim Report Acknowledgments The Panel on Research on Future Census Methods thanks the many people who contributed to the preparation of this, the panel's first interim report. First, we thank the staff of our sponsor, the Bureau of the Census, who provided detailed and informative presentations on the wide variety of aspects of the census process relevant to the panel 's charge. We are especially indebted to Kenneth Prewitt, Cynthia Clark, Ruth Ann Killion, Jay Keller, Juanita Tamayo Lott, and their entire staff, who were always available to the panel members and staff to answer our many questions. We also thank other Census Bureau staff who played a role in the preparation or presentation of material to the panel: Charles Alexander, Theresa Anguiera, Debbie Bolton, Geraldine Burt, David Hubble, Charlene Leggieri, Joe Knott, Randall Neugebauer, Cleo Redline, and Henry Woltman. The panel also thanks John Czajka for his presentation on potential uses of administrative records in the 2010 census and Alan Zaslavsky for his presentation on sampling, data collection, and estimation in future censuses. Eugenia Grohman, associate director for reports of the Commission on Behavior and Social Sciences and Education, enormously improved the report through her technical editing. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspective and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will

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DESIGNING THE 2010 CENSUS: First Interim Report assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review process of this interim report: Margo Anderson, Department of History, University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee; Stephen Fienberg, Department of Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University; Hermann Habermann, Statistics Division, United Nations; Albert Madansky, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago; D. Bruce Petrie, Canadian Institute for Health Information, Ottawa, Ontario; Samuel H. Preston, School of Arts and Sciences, University of Pennsylvania; James Trussell, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs and Office of Population Research, Princeton University; and James Walker, Department of Economics, University of Wisconsin, Madison. Although the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution. Benjamin F. King, Chair Panel on Research on Future Census Methods

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DESIGNING THE 2010 CENSUS: First Interim Report Contents     Executive Summary   1     Introduction   7     The Master Trace Sample   11     Research Experiments   19     Auxiliary Data Systems   25     Other 2000 Census Data Issues   28     Other 2000 Census Data Proposals   31     Planning for the 2010 Census and the Acs Survey   34     References   40

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