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Observations on the President's Fiscal Year 2001 Federal Science and Technology Budget

Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING

INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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Observations on the President's Fiscal Year 2001 Federal Science and Technology Budget Observations on the President's Fiscal Year 2001 Federal Science and Technology Budget Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Observations on the President's Fiscal Year 2001 Federal Science and Technology Budget NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: This volume was produced as part of a project approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. It is a result of work done by the Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP) as augmented, which has authorized its release to the public. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by COSEPUP and the Report Review Committee. The Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy (COSEPUP) is a joint committee of NAS, NAE, and IOM. It includes members of the councils of all three bodies. Financial Support: The development of this report was supported by the National Research Council. Internet Access: This report is available on COSEPUP's World Wide Web site at http://www2.nas.edu/cosepup.   International Standard Book Number 0-309-06984-X Additional copies are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20418; 1-800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area). Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. This document may be reproduced solely for educational purposes without the written permission of the National Academy of Sciences. Printed in the United States of America.

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Observations on the President's Fiscal Year 2001 Federal Science and Technology Budget THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Observations on the President's Fiscal Year 2001 Federal Science and Technology Budget This page in the original is blank.

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Observations on the President's Fiscal Year 2001 Federal Science and Technology Budget COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, ENGINEERING, AND PUBLIC POLICY MAXINE F. SINGER (Chair), President, Carnegie Institution of Washington BRUCE M. ALBERTS, * President, National Academy of Sciences ENRIQUETA C. BOND, President, The Burroughs Wellcome Fund LEWIS BRANSCOMB, Professor Emeritus, Center for Science and International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University PETER DIAMOND, Institute Professor and Professor of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology GERALD DINNEEN, * Retired Vice President, Science and Technology, Honeywell, Inc. MILDRED S. DRESSELHAUS, Institute Professor of Electrical Engineering and Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JAMES J. DUDERSTADT, President Emeritus and University Professor of Science and Engineering, Millennium Project, University of Michigan MARYE ANNE FOX, Chancellor, North Carolina State University RALPH E. GOMORY, President, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation RUBY P. HEARN, Vice President, The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation BRIGID L. M. HOGAN, Investigator, Howard Hughes Medical Institute, and Hortense B. Ingram Professor, Department of Cell Biology, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine SAMUEL PRESTON, Dean, University of Pennsylvania School of Arts and Sciences KENNETH I. SHINE, * President, Institute of Medicine MORRIS TANENBAUM, Retired Vice Chairman and Chief Financial Officer, AT&T IRVING L. WEISSMAN, Karele and Avice Beekhuis Professor of Cancer Biology, Stanford University School of Medicine SHEILA E. WIDNALL, Abbey Rockefeller Mauze Professor of Aeronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology WILLIAM JULIUS WILSON, Lewis P. and Linda L. Geyer University Professor, Harvard University WILLIAM A. WULF, * President, National Academy of Engineering RICHARD E. BISSELL, Director DEBORAH D. STINE, Associate Director MARION RAMSEY, Administrative Associate * Ex officio member.

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Observations on the President's Fiscal Year 2001 Federal Science and Technology Budget COMMITTEE ON THE FEDERAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY BUDGET JAMES J. DUDERSTADT (chair), President Emeritus and University Professor of Science and Engineering, Millennium Project, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI HENRY J. AARON, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution LEWIS M. BRANSCOMB, Professor Emeritus, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University MARYE ANNE FOX, Chancellor, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC RUBY P. HEARN, Senior Vice-President, The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, Princeton, NJ ANITA JONES, University Professor of Computer Science, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA RICHARD E. BISSELL, Study Director PETER HENDERSON, Program Officer VIVIAN NOLAN, Research Associate

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Observations on the President's Fiscal Year 2001 Federal Science and Technology Budget Preface In 1995, the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, Institute of Medicine, and National Research Council issued a report entitled Allocating Federal Funds for Science and Technology, which recommended tracking of federal investments in the creation of new knowledge and technologies—what the report referred to as the federal science and technology (FS&T) budget. COSEPUP is issuing this third annual report in order to identify potential impacts of the President's proposed FS&T budget. The Committee does not make recommendations about specific spending levels, but rather identifies aspects of the proposed budget as they affect the health of the nation 's research enterprise. This report also appears in the AAAS's Intersociety Working Group, AAAS Report XXV: Research and Development FY2001, through a cooperative arrangement between our organizations. The report has been reviewed by persons chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The purposes of the independent review are to provide candid and critical comments that will assist COSEPUP in making its report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards of objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Bernard Burke (Massachusetts Institute of Technology), John Gibbons (National Academy of

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Observations on the President's Fiscal Year 2001 Federal Science and Technology Budget Engineering), Christopher Hill (George Mason University), Daniel Kelves (California Institute of Technology), Stephen Kohashi (Department of Housing and Urban Development), Kei Koizumu (American Association for the Advancement of Science), Charles Larson (Industrial Research Institute), John Mayo (Lucent Technologies), and Peter Raven (Chair, Report Review Committee). The production of this report was the result of hard work of the project committee chaired by James Duderstadt. The project was aided by the help of the committee's professional staff: Richard E. Bissell, Peter Henderson, and Vivian Nolan. Maxine F. Singer, Chair Committee on Science, Engineering, and Public Policy

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Observations on the President's Fiscal Year 2001 Federal Science and Technology Budget Contents     Findings   1      The FY 2001 FS&T Budget,   2     Concerns   4      Overall U.S. Investment in Research and Development,   4      Balancing the FS&T Portfolio,   4     Conclusions   7     FS&T Tables   9

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Observations on the President's Fiscal Year 2001 Federal Science and Technology Budget Figures and Tables Figures  1:   FS&T Budget and Basic Research, FY 1994-FY 2001 (budget authority in billions of constant FY 2000 dollars),   2  2:   FY 2001 R&D, FS&T, and 21st Century Research Fund (in billions),   3  3:   Federal, Non-Federal, and Total Support for R&D as a Percent of GDP, 1953-1999,   5 Tables  1:   Alternative Perspectives on the President's FY 2001 Science and Technology Budget (millions of current dollars),   10  2:   Federal Science and Technology (FS&T) Budget, by Agency, FY 1999-FY 2001 (millions of constant FY 2000 dollars),   11  3:   Trends in FS&T and R&D, FY 1994-FY 2001 (millions of constant FY 2000 dollars),   12  4:   Cross-Cutting National Science and Technology Council Initiatives, President's FY 2001 Budget (millions of constant FY 2000 dollars),   12