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Index
Abortion, 5, 57, 102
Accuracy of projections, vii, 1-2, 3-4, 10, 12, 17, 34
age structures, 4, 38, 45-46, 47, 48-49, 50-51, 148
elderly persons, 38, 45, 48, 50-51, 134, 147, 148, 149
young persons, 38, 45, 49, 50-51
Australia, 44, 132
baseline data, 29, 42-44, 48, 49, 51
Canada, 44, 45(n.12), 132
country-level forecasts, general, 38-39, 40, 50-51, 131-133
developing countries, general, 44, 45, 65-68, 132-133, 135
fertility, 4, 17, 31, 38, 46, 48, 49, 51, 65-68, 90-91
historical perspectives, 37-52, 130-134, 175-176
industrial countries, general, 44, 49, 90-91, 132, 135, 177
Japan, 44
Middle East, 44, 48, 132-133
migration, 4, 41, 46, 48-51 (passim), 175-182, 183
mortality, 4, 34, 38, 41, 46-49 (passim), 51, 130-134, 139-141, 147, 148-149
New Zealand, 44, 132
North Africa, 44, 48, 132
past projections, 32-33, 37-52
population size factors, 44, 46
regional, general, 44, 51
U.N., 34, 37, 38-40, 42, 43, 45-46, 50, 130, 131, 135
U.S.A., 44, 45, 132, 134, 135
World Bank, 34, 37, 43, 51(n.17), 65, 130, 135
see also Forecast length;
Uncertainty
Afghanistan, 126, 163, 168, 171
Africa, 2, 20, 199, 200, 211
fertility, 53, 55, 68-69, 74, 76, 78
HIV/AIDS, 69, 128, 141, 174
migration, 158, 160, 161-162, 173, 174
mortality, 24, 69, 124
see also Middle East;
North Africa;
Sub-Saharan Africa;
specific countries
Age structure, 1, 2, 3, 23, 198
accuracy of projections, 4, 38, 45-46, 47, 48-49, 50-51, 148
China, 45
cohort-component method, 29, 30
developing countries, general, 23, 27, 28-29, 45
fertility, 23, 48, 57, 59, 72-73, 84(n.1), 88(n.4), 91, 92-93, 101
childbearing age, 6, 57, 72-73, 94-96, 105, 108, 190
marital age, 57, 72-73
replacement, 27-28
growth rates and, 27-29
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India, 45
industrial countries, general, 28, 114, 115-116, 119, 120, 121-122
elderly persons, 2, 121-122
migration, 27-28, 49, 175, 181, 183, 191
mortality, 7, 23, 49, 114, 115-116, 119, 120, 121-122, 128, 135-138, 148, 197
elderly persons, 114, 117, 121-122, 128(n.6), 134, 135-138, 147, 148
young persons, 117, 122
population momentum, 3, 24, 27-29
scenarios, 191, 193-194
UN forecasts, 45
Western Europe, 28, 45, 136
see also Birth-cohort analysis;
Elderly persons;
Infants;
Population momentum;
Young persons
Aggregation, 10, 38, 51, 189, 192
AIDS, see HIV/AIDS
Albania, 84, 87, 167
Algeria, 125
Angola, 70
Argentina, 89, 124, 139, 156, 163, 164, 171
Asia, 2, 20, 199, 200
fertility, 25, 53, 54-55, 74, 78, 86
historical perspectives, 24
HIV/AIDS, 174, 195
marital age, 57
migration, 8, 158, 160, 161, 162-163, 164, 165, 167, 171, 173
mortality, 24, 115, 116, 124, 132
replacement fertility, 25
see also East Asia and the Pacific;
Middle East;
specific countries
Australia, 20, 208, 209, 211
accuracy of projections, 44, 132
fertility, 84, 85, 86
migration, 8, 156, 160, 161, 164-165, 170, 175
mortality, 116, 132
Bangladesh, 5, 22, 57, 59, 61, 70, 90(n.7), 171
Baseline data, 29, 42-43, 48, 49, 51
Behavioral factors, 194
HIV/AIDS, 143-144
mortality, 7, 123, 140-141, 143-144
smoking, 123, 140
see also Family planning;
Social and cultural factors
Biomedical research, 13, 32, 33, 104-106, 120, 122, 123, 127, 147, 148-149
Birth-cohort analysis, 48-49
cohort-component method, 3, 27, 29-32, 201
fertility, 29-30, 31, 88(n.4), 91, 92-93, 94-95(n.12)
life expectancy, 114(n.1), 149
Birth control, see Abortion;
Contraception;
Family planning
Birth order, 6, 92, 94, 96-98, 103, 106
Births, see Fertility
Bosnia-Herzegovina, 167, 168, 171
Botswana, 162
Brazil, 22, 55, 71, 125, 156, 164, 171, 209
Bulgaria, 167
Bureau of the Census, see U.S. Census Bureau
Burkina Faso, 162
Burma, 125
Burundi, 143
Cambodia, 126, 142-143, 163
Canada
accuracy of projections, 44, 45(n.12), 132
age structure, 45(n.12)
migration, 8, 156, 160, 164-165, 170, 175
mortality, 132
Caribbean region, see Latin America and the Caribbean
Census Bureau, see U.S. Census Bureau
Censuses, 12
age structures, 45
baseline error, 42
cohort-component method, 29
migration, 157(n.1)
Children, see Infants;
Young persons
Chile, 124
China, 22-23, 208, 209
age structure, 45
fertility, 5, 33, 55, 67, 71, 77, 84, 85, 86, 87, 105, 194
migration, 158, 169, 183
mortality, 123-124, 125, 130, 142, 145, 148, 194
Climate, see Weather
Cohorts, see Birth-cohort analysis
Colombia, 72, 125
Communications technology, see Telecommunications
Component rates, general, 29-30, 31, 46-50
see also Fertility;
Growth rates;
Migration;
Mortality;
Vital rates
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Computer applications, 30, 32, 34
Internet, viii, 34, 38(n.2), 72, 176, 207
Confidence intervals, see Probability distributions
Congo, 22, 23, 68, 70
Contraception, 5, 56-57, 61, 62, 69, 104, 199
see also Abortion;
Family planning
Costa Rica, 55, 58, 124
Côte d'Ivoire, 55, 68, 162, 171
Country-level forecasts, general, 16, 17
accuracy, 38-39, 40, 50-51, 131-133
fertility, 39, 56, 63-64, 75-76, 87-91
mortality, 24, 114, 115, 117, 131-133, 138
uncertainty, 197, 202-203, 206, 208-210, 214, 216
see also Developing countries;
Industrial countries;
Migration;
specific countries
Crisis migration, see “migration” under Disasters and crises
Crisis mortality, 8, 9, 10, 118-119, 120-121, 127-128, 135, 137, 141-148, 149
famine, 31, 126, 142, 145, 148, 162
influenza, 119, 128, 143, 147
political upheaval, 8, 32, 128, 137, 141-143
see also HIV/AIDS
Cuba, 124
Cultural factors, see Social and cultural factors
Czech Republic, 167
Death rates, see Mortality
Definitional issues
forecast, 15-16(n.1)
growth rates, 24
life expectancy, 114(n.1)
migration, 184
population momentum, 27
population projection, 15(n.1)
posttransition fertility, 83
regions, 207-208
replacement fertility, 24
Denmark, 45(n.12)
Developed countries, see Industrial countries;
specific countries and regions
Developing countries, 15, 22-23, 211
accuracy of projections, 44, 45, 65-68, 132-133, 135
age structure, 23, 27, 28-29, 45
fertility, 5, 85
abortion, 5, 57
contraception, 5, 56-57, 61, 62, 69
migration, 172-173
replacement, 24-25, 64
transitional, 34, 53-78
migration, 158, 159, 161, 169, 172-173, 183, 184
mortality, 115, 117, 118, 123-127, 132-133, 135, 139-141
regional projections, 2, 20, 21, 28
standards of living, 58, 59, 69, 124, 125, 170-171, 183
time-series analysis, 201-202
see also specific countries and regions
Diet, see Nutrition
Disasters and crises, 195
famine, 31, 126, 142, 145, 148, 162
migration, 9, 10, 13, 48, 50, 162-168 (passim), 171-172, 178, 184
see also Crisis mortality
Diseases and disorders, 26, 47, 118, 119-120, 122, 123, 124, 135-136, 148-149, 188, 194
infertility, 69, 89-90, 104-105
migration, 174
transitional fertility, 59
see also HIV/AIDS;
Medical science;
Mortality
East Asia and the Pacific, 21, 22, 211
age structure, 23
fertility, 54-55, 85
migration, 158-159
Eastern Europe, 211
fertility, 85, 101, 199
HIV/AIDS, 31
migration, 159, 161, 166-167, 169, 173
mortality, 8, 128, 194, 199
see also specific countries
East Timor, 126
Economic factors, 3
cohort-component method, 30-31
fertility, 5, 6, 25, 57-63 (passim), 70-76 (passim), 78, 98, 101-102, 107, 108
migration, 9, 162, 163-164, 166, 167, 169, 171, 179-182
mortality, 7, 8, 47, 123, 127, 128, 135, 141-143, 149
opportunity costs, 6, 98, 100, 106
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replacement fertility, 25
taxation, 103
uncertainty, 32, 188, 198-199
see also Developing countries;
Employment factors;
Industrial countries;
Standards of living
Educational attainment, fertility and, 58, 59, 69, 72, 199
literacy, 59, 62, 70, 75
women, 72, 140
Egypt, 125, 209
Elderly persons, 2, 8, 11, 13, 23, 194-195, 198
accuracy of projections, 38, 45, 48, 50-51, 134, 147, 148, 149
industrial countries, 2, 121-122
migration, 175
mortality, 114, 117, 121-122, 128(n.6), 134, 135-138, 147, 148
transitional fertility, 59
El Salvador, 125, 143
Emigration and immigration, see Migration
Employment factors, 194
migration, 162, 166, 168, 169, 178, 179-181
women, 58, 100-101
Energy supply and demand, 1, 189
England, see United Kingdom
Environmental feedback, 31-32, 184
Environmental protection, 1, 13, 16, 188, 189
Errors, see Accuracy of projections;
Uncertainty
Ethiopia, 22, 23
Europe, see Eastern Europe;
Western Europe;
specific countries
Expert-based probabilistic projections, 41, 65, 202-203, 212, 215
Ex post analysis, 10, 133, 198, 203-204, 206-213, 214, 215
Family planning, 3, 33, 56-57, 58, 60, 62, 69, 78, 94
genetic selection, 105-106
government programs, 56-57, 61, 69, 71, 73-74, 76, 78
international programs, 56-57, 74, 76
proception technology, 104-105
sex selection, 105
uncertainty, 33
see also Abortion;
Contraception
Famine, 31, 126, 142, 145, 148, 162
Females, see Fertility;
Gender factors
Fertility, viii, 2, 3, 5-7, 17, 24, 34
accuracy of projections, 4, 17, 31, 38, 46, 48, 49, 51, 65-68, 90-91
Africa, 53, 55, 68-69, 74, 76, 78
age structure and, 23, 48, 57, 59, 72-73, 84(n.1), 88(n.4), 91, 92-93, 101
childbearing age, 6, 57, 72-73, 94-96, 105, 108, 190
marriage age, 57, 72-73
replacement, 27-28
Asia, general, 25, 53, 54-55, 74, 78, 86
Australia, 84, 85, 86
baseline data, 48, 49
birth-cohort analysis, 29-30, 31, 88(n.4), 91, 92-93, 94-95(n.12)
birth order, 6, 92, 94, 96-98, 103, 106
China, 5, 33, 55, 67, 71, 77, 84, 85, 86, 87, 105, 194
cohort-component method, 29-30, 31
country-level forecasts, general, 39, 56, 63-64, 75-76, 87-91
definitional issues, 24, 83
developing countries, general, 5, 85
abortion, 5, 57
contraception, 5, 56-57, 61, 62, 69
migration, 172-173
replacement, 24-25, 64
transitional, 34, 53-78
East Asia, 54-55, 85
Eastern Europe, 85, 101, 199
economic factors, 5, 6, 25, 57-63 (passim), 70-76 (passim), 78, 98, 101-102, 107, 108
educational attainment, 58, 59, 69, 70, 72, 75, 140, 199
elderly persons, 59
forecast length, 13, 41, 46, 65, 66, 90, 91
gender factors, 58, 70, 72, 100-101, 105, 140
HIV/AIDS and, 55, 69, 78
IIASA, 19, 65, 69, 202
illustrative forecasts, 204-206
India, 5, 67
industrial countries, general, 2, 5, 11, 13, 53, 67, 84, 85, 86, 195, 204-206
migration and, 172-173
posttransition, 6, 83-108, 190
infertility, 69, 89-90, 104-105
Japan, 73, 84, 85, 86, 87, 98
Latin America and the Caribbean, 25, 53, 54, 55, 61, 71, 84, 85, 86
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marriage and marital status, 6, 32, 41, 57, 70, 72-73, 78, 87, 92, 99-100, 175
methods of projection, 63-68, 87-88, 94(n.12)
Middle East, 54, 55, 60, 61, 70
migration and, 2, 71, 172-173, 205-206
modeling, 13, 64, 65
mortality and, 57-58, 62, 63, 76, 126-127, 194, 199
New Zealand, 84, 85, 86, 87
North Africa, 54, 55
Northern America, 53, 84, 85, 86
opportunity costs, 6, 98, 100, 106
political factors, 6-7, 33, 69, 70-71, 87, 98, 101-104, 107
family planning programs, 56-57, 61, 69, 71, 73-74, 76, 78
population projection defined, 15(n.1)
posttransition, 6-7, 34, 83-108, 190
regional populations, general, 5, 54, 55, 85, 205
rural areas, 61, 73, 74, 75
social and cultural factors, 6, 25, 57, 58-63 (passim), 69, 70-71, 72, 75, 76, 78, 87, 92(n.10), 93, 98, 101-102, 107, 108, 172
South Asia, 25
Soviet Union, 199
standards of living and, 58, 59, 69
Sub-Saharan Africa, 5, 6, 54, 55, 68, 69-70, 76, 78
time-series analysis, 88, 93, 200-202, 204-206
transitional, 34, 53-78, 83, 106, 190
U.N., 25, 63-65, 67, 68, 69-70, 75, 76, 86, 87-88
uncertainty, 4, 32, 188, 190, 194-195, 196, 201, 202, 204-206
scenarios/variants, 25, 33-34, 75, 88, 190, 191, 202
urban areas, 57, 60, 70, 72
U.S.A., 87, 95-100 (passim), 103
U.S. Census Bureau, 64-65, 191
Western Europe, 53, 84, 85, 86, 199
World Bank, 64, 65, 67, 69-70, 71, 75, 88
see also Abortion;
Contraception;
Family planning;
Higher-order births;
Replacement fertility
Food supply and demand, 1, 32, 189
famine, 31, 126, 142, 145, 148, 162
Malthusian theory, 15
mortality and, 118
see also Nutrition
Forecast length, 5, 12, 38, 41-42, 50, 189-190, 192, 206, 208, 209, 214, 215
baseline error, 43, 48
cohort-component method, 29-32 (passim)
fertility, 13, 41, 46, 65, 66, 90, 91
migration, 41, 176-177
mortality, 13, 41, 122, 129-130, 131, 136, 137
regional, 10, 44
France, 178, 209
Gabon, 89-90
Gaza Strip, 163
Gender factors, 3, 100-101
cohort-component method, 29, 30
education of women, 72, 140
employment of women, 58, 100-101
fertility, 58, 70, 72, 100-101, 105, 140
migration, 175, 181, 191
mortality, 26, 115-117, 121, 122, 129, 197
scenarios, 191
sex selection of children, 105
uncertainty, 32, 191, 197
Genetic factors, 105-106
Germany, 87, 98-99, 103, 157, 178, 209
Ghana, 55, 68, 70, 125
Government role, 5-6
family planning programs, 56-57, 61, 69, 71, 73-74, 76, 78
HIV/AIDS, 143
migration, 178
taxation, 103
see also Political factors and policy;
U.S. Census Bureau;
U.S. Social Security Administration
Greece, 87, 166
Growth rates, vii, 19, 206
age structure, 27-29
defined, 24
developing countries, 22
forecast length, 42
historical perspectives, 15, 17-19, 24, 42
industrial countries, 22
Malthusian theory, 15, 31
regional, 20, 22, 24
see also Fertility;
Migration;
Mortality;
Population momentum
Guinea, 162
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Haiti, 126
Health factors, 41, 47, 61, 120, 122, 123, 124-125, 140-141
migration, 173-174
see also Diseases and disorders;
Medical science;
Mortality
Higher-order births, 6, 92, 94, 96-98, 103, 106
Historical perspectives, vii, 2, 5, 15, 18
accuracy of past projections, 37-52, 130-134, 175-176
childbearing age, 6, 57, 72-73, 94-96
cohort-component method, 30, 31, 32
ex post analysis, 10, 133, 198, 203-204, 206-213, 214, 215
fertility, 5, 6
posttransition, 84, 86-87, 89-108
transitional, 34, 53-78
forecast length, 41-42
growth rates, 15, 17-19, 24, 42
Malthusian theory, 15, 31
migration, 8, 9, 156-168, 171, 172, 175-177, 181-182, 183, 184
mortality, 24, 114, 115-129, 130-134, 139, 141-145, 146, 147
policy feedback, 33
uncertainty, 32-33, 194-195
U.N. projections, 4-5
HIV/AIDS, 10, 31, 32, 69, 126, 127, 128, 133, 135, 143-145, 146, 149
Africa, general, 69, 128, 141, 174
Asia, general, 174, 195
behavioral factors, 143-144
Eastern Europe, 31
fertility and, 55, 69, 78
migration and, 174
regional impacts, general, 144-145
Sub-Saharan Africa, 8, 47, 55, 69, 133, 141, 143, 144-145, 146, 147, 195
uncertainty, 194, 195, 199, 201
U.S.A., 144
World Bank, 144, 145
Hungary, 167
Iceland, 87
IIASA, see International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
Immigration Act (U.S.), 164
Immigration and emigration, see Migration
Immigration Reform and Control Act, 164(n.5), 165
India, 22-23, 209
age structure, 45
fertility, 5, 67
migration, 171, 172
mortality, 125
Indonesia, 22, 59, 71, 125, 209
Industrial countries, 2, 12, 211
accuracy of projections, 44, 49, 90-91, 132, 135, 177
age structure, 28, 114, 115-116, 119, 120, 121-122
elderly persons, 2, 121-122
fertility, 2, 5, 11, 13, 53, 67, 84, 85, 86, 195, 204-206
migration and, 172-173
posttransition, 6, 83-108, 190
growth rate, 22
migration, 49, 158, 159, 160, 161, 167, 170, 172-173, 177, 179-180
mortality, 7, 8, 115, 117-123, 125, 128, 132, 135, 139
regional projections, 2, 20, 21, 22
standards of living, 119, 124, 170-171, 183
see also specific countries and regions
Infants, 4, 45, 51
mortality, 48, 57, 63, 72, 114, 120, 125, 127
Influenza, 119, 128, 143, 147
International Conference on Population and Development, 74
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), 11, 17-18, 19, 202
baseline data, 51
fertility, 19, 65, 69, 202
methods of projection, 29, 51(n.17), 65
mortality, 19
regional projections, 1, 21, 22
International organizations, general, 16
baseline data, 51
family planning programs, 56-57, 74, 76
see also specific organizations
Internet, viii, 34, 38(n.2), 72, 176, 207
Iran, 171
Iraq, 171
Israel, 87, 124
Italy, 6, 87, 96, 97, 99-100, 166
Ivory Coast, see Côte d'Ivoire
Japan, 16, 20, 22, 23, 209
accuracy of projections, 44
fertility, 73, 84, 85, 86, 87, 98
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historical perspectives, 24
migration, 8, 164
mortality, 7, 114, 115
Jordan, 163
Kazakhstan, 167, 171
Kenya, 125, 144
Kuwait, 163, 168, 171
Laos, 126
Latin America and the Caribbean, 2, 20, 21, 22, 24, 199, 211
age structure, 23
fertility, 25, 53, 54, 55, 61, 71, 84, 85, 86
migration, 159, 161, 163-164, 173
mortality, 24, 115, 116, 124, 132, 146
replacement fertility, 25
see also specific countries
Lebanon, 163
Lesotho, 162
Liberia, 48, 70, 143, 147, 162, 168
Libya, 162
Life expectancy, see Mortality
Literacy, 59, 62, 70, 75
Living standards, see Standards of living
Macedonia, 87
Malawi, 7, 68, 114
Malaysia, 87, 171
Males, see Gender factors
Mali, 162
Malthus, Thomas, 15, 31
Marriage and marital status, 6, 32, 41, 57, 70, 72-73, 78, 87, 92, 99-100, 175
Mass media, 5, 16, 71
Mauritius, 125
Medical science, 3, 13
mortality and, 7, 26, 120, 122, 123, 124-125, 127, 135, 136-137, 147, 194
uncertainty, 32, 33
see also Biomedical research;
Contraception;
Diseases and disorders
Men, see Gender factors
Methods of projection, 17, 29-32, 51
aggregation, 10, 38, 51, 189, 192
averaging percentage errors, 39-40
cohort-component method, 3, 27, 29-32, 201
fertility, 63-68, 87-88, 94(n.12)
migration, 174-182, 184
mortality, 138, 140, 148, 200-202
probability distributions, 10, 188, 189, 195-198, 200-206, 216
expert-based, 41, 65, 202-203, 212, 215
ex post analysis, 10, 133, 198, 203-204, 206-213, 214, 215
stochastic simulations, 10, 201, 202, 204, 205, 206, 208
time-series analysis, see Time-series analysis
see also Accuracy of projections;
Forecast length;
Models and modeling;
Scenarios;
Uncertainty;
“methods of project” under International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis;
United Nations;
U.S. Census Bureau;
World Bank
Mexico, 27, 55, 71, 164, 171, 181, 209
Middle East, 21, 22, 60, 211
accuracy of projections, 44, 48, 132-133
age structure and momentum, 29
fertility, 54, 55, 60, 61, 70
migration, 48, 156, 163
mortality, 115, 116, 132-133
see also specific countries
Migrant stock, 156-167 (passim)
Migration, viii, 3, 8-9, 11, 12, 17, 24, 26-27, 34, 156-184
accuracy of projections, 4, 41, 46, 48-51 (passim), 175-182, 183
Africa, general, 158, 160, 161-162, 173, 174
age structure, 27-28, 49, 181, 183, 191
elderly persons, 175
young persons, 49, 172-173, 175
Asia, general, 8, 158, 160, 161, 162-163, 164, 165, 167, 171, 173
Australia, 8, 156, 160, 161, 164-165, 170, 175
baseline data, 48, 49
Canada, 8, 156, 160, 164-165, 170, 175
censuses, 157(n.1)
China, 158, 169, 183
cohort-component method, 29, 30, 31
crisis, 9, 10, 13, 48, 50, 162-168 (passim), 171-172, 178, 184
defined, 184
developing countries, general, 158, 159, 161, 169, 172-173, 183, 184
disease factors, 174
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East Asia, 158-159
Eastern Europe, 159, 161, 166-167, 169, 173
economic factors, 9, 162, 163-164, 166, 167, 169, 171, 179-182
employment factors, 162, 166, 168, 169, 178, 179-181
fertility and, 2, 71, 172-173, 205-206
forecast length, 41, 176-177
gender factors, 175, 181, 191
growth rates and, 26-27
health factors, 173-174
historical perspectives, 8, 9, 156-168, 171, 172, 175-177, 181-182, 183, 184
HIV/AIDS and, 174
India, 171, 172
individual choices, 41
industrial countries, 49, 158, 159, 160, 161, 167, 170, 172-173, 177, 179-180
Japan, 8, 164
Latin America and the Caribbean, 159, 161, 163-164, 173
methods of projection, 174-182, 184
Middle East, 48, 156, 163
modeling, 177-178, 179-182, 183, 184
mortality and, 172-173
New Zealand, 156, 160
North Africa, 48, 158, 161, 162
Northern America, 27, 159, 160, 161, 173
political factors, 9, 164, 165, 166, 167, 169, 170, 171, 172, 178-179, 182, 184
population projection defined, 15(n.1)
regional populations, general, 3, 27, 48, 156, 158-159, 160-167, 171, 173, 192-193
rural areas, 167, 179-180
social and cultural factors, 60, 160-161, 172, 173-174, 179, 180-181, 183
South Asia, 158, 161, 163
Soviet Union, 157, 159, 165, 166, 167, 169, 172
standards of living, 170-171, 183
Sub-Saharan Africa, 158, 161, 162, 171
theory, 177-178, 179-182, 183, 184
time-series analysis, 191
U.N., 27, 165, 168, 174, 184
refugees, 162, 163, 166, 178
uncertainty, 32, 156, 178, 188, 190, 192-193, 196, 202, 205-206
scenarios/variants, 190, 191, 192-193, 202
urban areas, 179-180
U.S.A., 8, 156, 160, 164-165, 170, 175, 182(n.12)
U.S. Census Bureau, 174, 191
see also “migration” under Disasters and crises
Models and modeling, 12, 13
cohort-component method, 30, 92(n.9)
ex post analysis, 207-208, 215
fertility, 13, 64, 65
migration, 177-178, 179-182, 183, 184
mortality, 135, 136
stochastic simulations, 10, 201, 202, 204, 205, 206, 208, 213
uncertainty, 34, 198, 214, 215
see also Methods of projection;
Scenarios
Moldova, 87
Momentum,
see Population momentum
Mortality, viii, 3, 7-8, 11, 17, 26, 34, 114-149
accuracy of projections, 4, 34, 38, 41, 46-49 (passim), 51, 130-134, 139-141, 147, 148-149
Africa, 24, 69, 124
age structure and, 7, 23, 114, 117, 121-122, 128(n.6), 134, 135-138, 147, 148
elderly persons, 114, 117, 121-122, 128(n.6), 134, 135-138, 147, 148
young persons, 117, 122
Asia, general, 24, 115, 116, 124, 132
Australia, 116, 132
baseline data, 48, 49
behavioral factors, 7, 123, 140-141, 143-144
birth-cohort analysis, 114(n.1), 149
Canada, 132
China, 123-124, 125, 130, 142, 145, 148, 194
cohort-component method, 29-30, 31
country-level forecasts, general, 24, 114, 115, 117, 131-133, 138
definitional issues, 15(n.1), 114(n.1)
developing countries, general, 115, 117, 118, 123-127, 132-133, 135, 139-141
Eastern Europe, 8, 128, 194, 199
economic factors, 7, 8, 47, 123, 127, 128, 135, 141-143, 149
fertility and, 57-58, 62, 63, 76, 126-127, 199 194,
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food supply, 118;
see also Famine
forecast length, 13, 41, 122, 129-130, 131, 136, 137
gender factors, 26, 115-117, 121, 122, 129, 197
historical perspectives, 24, 114, 115-129, 130-134, 139, 141-145, 146, 147
IIASA, 19
India, 125
industrial countries, 7, 8, 115, 117-123, 125, 128, 132, 135, 139
infant, 48, 57, 63, 114, 120, 125, 127
Japan, 7, 114, 115
Latin America and the Caribbean, 24, 115, 116, 124, 132, 146
medical science and, 7, 26, 120, 122, 123, 124-125, 127, 135, 136-137, 147, 194
methods of projection, 138, 140, 148, 200-202
Middle East, 115, 116, 132-133
migration and, 173-174
modeling, 135, 136
North Africa, 116, 132-133
political factors, 8, 32, 128, 137, 141-143
population projection defined, 15(n.1)
regional populations, general, 24, 115, 116, 127, 132-133
social and cultural factors, 7, 127, 141-143
Soviet Union, 128, 137, 142, 143-144, 194, 199
standards of living, 7, 118, 119, 124, 125, 133, 139, 140, 146
Sub-Saharan Africa, 8, 47, 115, 116, 132, 133, 141, 142, 143, 146, 147
time-series analysis, 138, 140, 148, 200-202
transitional fertility, 57-58, 62, 63, 76
U.N., 26, 129, 130, 131, 135
uncertainty, 32, 139-141, 147-148, 188, 196, 201, 202, 206
scenarios/variants, 129, 190, 202
urban areas, 119, 120
U.S.A., 116, 132, 134, 135, 144, 200-201
U.S. Census Bureau, 191
weather factors, 118, 128, 194;
see also Famine
Western Europe, 116, 118, 119, 136, 199
World Bank, 26, 129-130, 131, 135, 144, 145
see also Crisis mortality;
Diseases and disorders
Mozambique, 68
Multilingual Demographic Dictionary, 15(n.1)
Natural resources, see Environmental protection
Nepal, 59, 126
Netherlands, 45(n.12)
New Zealand, 20
accuracy of projections, 44, 132
fertility, 84, 85, 86, 87
migration, 156, 160
mortality, 132
Nigeria, 22, 45, 55, 68, 70, 130, 209
North Africa, 21, 22
accuracy of projections, 44, 48, 132
fertility, 54, 55
migration, 48, 158, 161, 162
mortality, 116, 132-133
see also specific countries
Northern America, 20, 21, 22, 199, 200, 211
age structure, 45
fertility, 53, 84, 85, 86
migration, 27, 159, 160, 161, 173
transitional fertility, 53, 84, 85, 86
see also Canada;
United States of America
Norway, 45(n.12)
Nutrition, 7, 24, 118, 120, 141
see also Food supply and demand
Older persons, see Elderly persons
Opportunity costs, 6, 98, 100, 106
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, 167
Pakistan, 22, 71, 75, 171
Philippines, 75, 171
Poland, 167
Political factors and policy, 3, 188-189
fertility, 6-7, 33, 69, 70-71, 87, 98, 101-104, 107
family planning programs, 56-57, 61, 69, 71, 73-74, 76, 78
migration, 9, 164, 165, 166, 167, 169, 170, 171, 172, 178-179, 182, 184
mortality, 8, 32, 128, 137, 141-143
see also Family planning;
Government role
Population momentum, 3, 24, 27-29
defined, 27
Portugal, 166
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Probability distributions, 10, 188, 189, 195-198, 200-206, 216
expert-based, 41, 65, 202-203, 212, 215
ex post analysis, 10, 133, 198, 203-204, 206-213, 214, 215
stochastic simulations, 10, 201, 202, 204, 205, 206, 208
see also Time-series analysis
Projection length, see Forecast length
Projection variants, see Scenarios
Qatar, 163
Refugees, see “migration” under Disasters and crises
Regional populations, 12, 16, 17, 19, 20-22
accuracy of projections, 44, 51
definitional issues, 207-208
developing countries, general, 2, 20, 21, 28
elderly, 11
fertility, 5, 54, 55, 85, 205
forecast length, 10, 44
growth rates, 20, 22, 24
HIV/AIDS, 144-145
industrial countries, general, 2, 20, 21, 22
IIASA, 1, 21, 22
migration, 3, 27, 48, 156, 158-159, 160-167, 171, 173, 192-193
momentum, 28
mortality, 24, 115, 116, 127, 132-133
U.N., 20, 21, 22, 197, 198, 205
uncertainty, 197, 198, 199, 203, 205, 207, 210-211, 212
scenarios, 192-193
U.S. Census Bureau, 19, 22
World Bank, 19, 21, 22, 27
see also Developing countries;
Industrial countries;
specific regions
Replacement fertility, 2, 3, 7, 11, 17
above, 24-25
age structure, 27-28
defined, 24
migration and, 172
posttransition fertility, 83, 86, 88, 89
transitional fertility, 72, 77
Romania, 102, 195
Rural areas, 60
fertility, 61, 73, 74, 75
migration, 167, 179-180
Russian Federation, 20, 21, 22, 23, 57, 87, 161, 167, 209
Rwanda, 143, 147, 162, 168, 171
Saudi Arabia, 125
Scenarios, vii, 10, 33, 73, 190-194, 214, 215
age structures, 191, 193-194
fertility, 25, 33-34, 75, 88, 190, 191, 202
gender factors, 191
high, 25, 33-34, 88, 129, 190, 191, 192-194, 214, 215
low, 33, 129, 190, 192-193, 211, 213, 214, 215
medium (standard), 15-16(n.1), 19, 33, 75, 88, 129, 190, 191, 193, 215
migration, 190, 191, 192-193, 202
mortality, 129, 190, 202
regional populations, 192-193
U.S. Census Bureau, 190, 191, 193-194
vital rates, 191-192
World Bank, 190
See also Variants (U.N.)
Senegal, 55, 68
Sex differences, see Gender factors
Singapore, 124
Smoking, 123, 140
Social and cultural factors, 3
cohort-component method, 30-31
ethnographic research, 78
fertility, 6, 25, 57, 58-63 (passim), 69, 70-71, 72, 75, 76, 78, 87, 92(n.10), 93, 98, 101-102, 107, 108, 172
migration, 60, 160-161, 172, 173-174, 179, 180-181, 183
mortality, 7, 127, 141-143
uncertainty, 32, 188, 189, 198-199
see also Economic factors;
Educational attainment;
Gender factors;
Political factors and policy;
Standards of living
Social Security Administration, see U.S. Social Security Administration
Somalia, 68, 143
South Africa, 125, 144, 162, 171
South America, see Latin America and the Caribbean
South Asia, 22, 211
migration, 158, 161, 163
replacement fertility, 25
South Korea, 58, 71, 90(n.7), 105, 171
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Soviet Union, 32, 199, 207, 208
fertility, 199
migration, 157, 159, 165, 166, 167, 169, 172
mortality, 128, 137, 142, 143-144, 194, 199
see also Eastern Europe;
former constituent republics
Spain, 87, 166
Sri Lanka, 124
Standards of living
developing countries, general, 58, 59, 69, 124, 125, 170-171, 183
fertility, 58, 59, 69
industrial countries, 119, 124, 170-171, 183
migration, 170-171, 183
mortality, 7, 118, 119, 124, 125, 133, 139, 140, 146
see also Economic factors;
Educational attainment;
Food supply and demand;
Nutrition
Stochastic simulations, 10, 201, 202, 204, 205, 206, 208, 213
Stocks of migrants, see Migrant stock
Sub-Saharan Africa, 2, 8, 21
age structure and momentum, 29
fertility, 5, 6, 54, 55, 68, 69-70, 76, 78
growth rate, 22
HIV/AIDS, 8, 47, 55, 69, 133, 141, 143, 144-145, 146, 147, 195
migration, 158, 161, 162, 171
mortality, 8, 47, 115, 116, 132, 133, 141, 142, 143, 146, 147
see also specific countries
Surveys, 15, 29, 77
Swaziland, 162
Sweden, 87, 115-117, 121, 195
Taiwan, 58, 72
Taxation, 103
Technological factors, 3, 104-106
see also Biomedical research;
Medical science;
Transportation systems
Telecommunications, 9
Internet, viii, 34, 38(n.2), 72, 176, 207
Thailand, 58, 59, 71
Time horizon, see Forecast length
Time-series analysis, 13, 30, 204, 206, 214, 215
developing countries,general, 201-202
fertility, 88, 93, 200-202, 204-206
migration, 191
mortality, 138, 140, 148, 200-202
see also Birth-cohort analysis
Transportation systems, 9, 125
Turkey, 125, 166
Uganda, 68, 143
Ukraine, 167
Uncertainty, vii, 3, 9-13 (passim), 16, 17, 32-34, 135, 188-216
country-level forecasts,general, 197, 202-203, 206, 208-210, 214, 216
economic factors, 32, 188, 198-199
family planning, 33
gender factors, 32, 191, 197
historical perspectives, 32-33, 194-195
HIV/AIDS, 194, 195, 199, 201
medical science, 32, 33
migration, 156, 178, 190, 192-193;
see also “migration” under Disasters and crises
modeling, 34, 198, 214, 215
mortality, 32, 139-141, 147-148, 188, 196, 201, 202, 206;
see also Crisis mortality
social and cultural factors, 32, 188, 189, 198-199
U.N., 10, 188, 197, 198, 199, 200, 203, 204, 206, 207, 209, 212-213, 214;
see also Variants (U.N.)
vital rates, 191-192, 198-199
World Bank, 190, 197, 204, 207
see also Accuracy of projections;
Probability distributions;
Scenarios
United Arab Emirates, 48, 163
United Kingdom, 45(n.12), 122, 123
United Nations, vii, 1, 3, 4-5, 11, 16, 18, 19, 60
accuracy of projections, 34, 37, 38-40, 42, 43, 45-46, 50, 130, 131, 135
age structure, 45
baseline error, 42, 43
developing countries, 22
fertility projections, 25, 63-65, 67, 68, 69, 69-70, 75, 76, 86, 87-88
methods of projection, 29, 51(n.17), 63-65, 87-88, 129, 174-175;
see also Variants (U.N.);
“uncertainty” infra
migration, 27, 165, 168, 174, 184
refugees, 162, 163, 166, 178
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mortality, 26, 129, 130, 131, 135
regional projections, 20, 21, 22, 197, 198, 205
replacement fertility, 25
uncertainty, 10, 188, 197, 198, 199, 200, 203, 204, 206, 207, 209, 212-213, 214;
see also Variants (U.N.)
United States of America, 22, 23, 209
accuracy of projections, 44, 45, 132, 134, 135
age structure, 45
fertility, 87, 95-100 (passim), 103
HIV/AIDS, 144
migration, 8, 156, 160, 164-165, 170, 175, 182(n.12)
mortality, 116, 132, 134, 135, 144, 200-201
Social Security Administration, 134, 189, 191
see also U.S. Census Bureau
Universal Declaration of Human Rights, 169
Urban areas and urbanization, 17
fertility, 57, 60, 70, 72
migration, 179-180
mortality, 119, 120
Uruguay, 124
U.S. Census Bureau, vii, 1, 11, 17
fertility, 64-65, 191
methods of projection, 29, 51(n.17), 64-65, 130(n.7), 174(n.10), 174, 201
scenario approach, 190, 191, 193-194
migration, 174, 191
mortality, 191
regional projections, 19, 22
U.S. Social Security Administration, 134, 189, 191, 201, 206(n.6)
Variants (U.N.), vii, 33, 190
fertility, 25, 33-34, 75, 88, 190
high, 25, 33-34, 88, 129, 190, 192-193, 211, 214
low, 33, 129, 190, 192-193, 211, 213, 214
medium (standard), 15-16(n.1), 19, 33, 75, 88, 129, 190
migration, 190, 192-193
mortality, 129, 190
see also Scenarios
Venezuela, 163, 164
Vital rates
cohort-component method, 30
scenarios, 191-192
uncertainty, 191-192, 198-199
see also Fertility;
Growth rates;
Migration;
Mortality
Vital registration, 12, 77, 122
Weather, mortality and, 118, 128, 194
see also Famine
Western Europe, 2, 16, 20, 21, 22, 24, 211
age structure, 28, 45, 136
fertility, 53, 84, 85, 86, 199
migration, 8, 27, 159, 161, 164, 165-66, 170, 172, 173
mortality, 116, 118, 119, 136, 199
see also specific countries
Women, see Fertility;
Gender factors
World Bank, vii, 1, 4, 11, 16, 17-18, 38(n.3)
accuracy of projections, 34, 37, 43, 51(n.17), 65, 130, 135
baseline error, 43
fertility, 64, 65, 67, 69-70, 71, 75, 88
HIV/AIDS, 144, 145
methods of projection, 29, 64, 88, 129-130, 175, 197, 204, 207
migration, 168, 175
mortality, 26, 129-130, 131, 135, 144, 145
regional projections, 19, 21, 22, 27
scenario approach, 190
uncertainty, 190, 197, 204, 207
World Wide Web, see Internet
Y
Young persons, 3, 28
accuracy of projections, 38, 45, 49, 50-51
developing countries, 27
migration, 49, 172-173, 175
mortality, 117, 122
see also Infants
Yugoslavia, 166, 172
Zambia, 144
Representative terms from entire chapter:
industrial countries
