APPENDIX

A

Computer Software Packages for Projecting Population

Global population projections are available from the U.N. Population Division, the World Bank, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).1 However, some readers may wish to prepare their own projections for particular purposes, perhaps using unusual assumptions or in order to obtain particular details. This appendix lists various computer software packages for this purpose.

Many of these packages claim to be user-friendly but still require basic knowledge of population dynamics and demographic techniques. The majority of packages use the cohort-component approach. The main idea of this approach is to begin with a properly defined population and move it forward in time using birth, death, and migration rates.

An abbreviated description of this process is as follows. An initial distribution of the population by sex and age (usually in 5-year age groups) is obtained from a census, vital registration, or administrative

1  

Results can be obtained in various forms. U.N. projections were published most recently in U.N. (1999). Diskettes or a magnetic tape can be purchased for US$500 (see the mailing address in the text), and some results are available at http://undp.org/popin/. World Bank results are issued annually as part of the World Development Indicators (World Bank, 1999), which are also available on CD-ROM (US$275; http://www.worldbank.org/html/extpb/cdrom.htm). U.S. Census Bureau projections (McDevitt, 1999) can be downloaded at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html. IIASA projections (Lutz, 1996), which are only for world regions, not countries, can be downloaded at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/POP/.



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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population APPENDIX A Computer Software Packages for Projecting Population Global population projections are available from the U.N. Population Division, the World Bank, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).1 However, some readers may wish to prepare their own projections for particular purposes, perhaps using unusual assumptions or in order to obtain particular details. This appendix lists various computer software packages for this purpose. Many of these packages claim to be user-friendly but still require basic knowledge of population dynamics and demographic techniques. The majority of packages use the cohort-component approach. The main idea of this approach is to begin with a properly defined population and move it forward in time using birth, death, and migration rates. An abbreviated description of this process is as follows. An initial distribution of the population by sex and age (usually in 5-year age groups) is obtained from a census, vital registration, or administrative 1   Results can be obtained in various forms. U.N. projections were published most recently in U.N. (1999). Diskettes or a magnetic tape can be purchased for US$500 (see the mailing address in the text), and some results are available at http://undp.org/popin/. World Bank results are issued annually as part of the World Development Indicators (World Bank, 1999), which are also available on CD-ROM (US$275; http://www.worldbank.org/html/extpb/cdrom.htm). U.S. Census Bureau projections (McDevitt, 1999) can be downloaded at http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idbnew.html. IIASA projections (Lutz, 1996), which are only for world regions, not countries, can be downloaded at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/POP/.

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population data or estimated by various demographic methods. Each age-sex cohort in the population is moved forward one time unit and simultaneously upward in age. For instance, the starting population of males 0-4 in the year 20002 becomes the population of males 5-9 in the year 2005, reduced by the number of deaths that occur between these points. Deaths are subtracted by applying assumed survival probabilities, specific to males between these ages, for the period 2000-2005. The cohort may also be increased or reduced if one assumes some net immigration or emigration of males of these specific ages. Applying this procedure to each age-sex cohort in 2000, one can estimate the entire population aged 5 and older for 2005. The population under age 5 depends on the number of births. To estimate this, one takes the number of women of reproductive age (say age 15 to age 49) in 2000 and applies assumed fertility rates for the period 2000-2005 specific to women of each age. The births must then be divided between males and females, using an assumed sex ratio at birth; deaths must again be estimated and subtracted; and migrants if any at these young ages must be added or subtracted, to give males and females aged 0-4 in 2005. The entire process can be repeated indefinitely to give the population at any point in the future, as long as assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration for each intervening period can be made. The user of each projection package obviously has to make decisions about the base population and about future trends in fertility, mortality, and migration. Age-specific assumptions about future trends are needed and can be entered, but packages generally require only summary measures of future trends (such as total fertility, life expectancy, and the net migration rate) and can generate age-specific assumptions using built-in models. Because projection techniques are generally standard, these packages should all give equivalent results from similar input data and assumptions. How assumptions are entered is not standard, however; it is not possible to enter assumptions in exactly the same way in different packages. Another important contrast among packages is the degree to which they are integrated with other routines. While all packages produce the basic population projections, a few are part of suites that do other demographic calculations or project socioeconomic variables in related areas. Two packages (PEP and PopX) are intended to complement the projection results with predictive distributions. Most of the packages run on PCs, either in DOS or in Windows. Only 2   World projections typically give midyear populations, but national statistical agencies often project population as of the beginning of each calendar year.

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population one (IPSS) is designed for a Macintosh. Specific computer requirements below are summarized from the documentation and are generally not demanding. A 486-class PC is adequate in many cases. Several packages will also run on older machines, but for such machines, there may be other specific requirements. Support for users has not been investigated and may be limited for the noncommercial packages. Packages are listed below first for the main agencies producing world population projections and then for all other agencies combined (where packages are listed alphabetically). Each package is briefly described, relying mainly on agency-supplied information or documentation. A number of packages are available without charge. How to obtain each one is indicated. No attempt is made to evaluate each package. Some previous evaluations of several of the packages are provided in other papers (McGirr and Rutstein, 1988; Bogue, 1996; McMurray, 1996). Listing of a package here is not meant to imply an endorsement of any sort. U.N. POPULATION DIVISION The main population projection package used by the United Nations, ABACUS, is described below but is not available to the public. Two other U.N. packages also described are available. For any of these packages, contact: Director, United Nations Population Division 2 United Nations Plaza, Room DC2-1950 New York, NY 10017 U.S.A. Fax: (212) 963-2147 Email: population@un.org http://www.undp.org/popin ABACUS is the main program used by the U.N. Population Division to produce the global population projections in its biannual reports entitled World Population Prospects. It uses the cohort-component method to project population by age and sex every 5 years based on data and assumptions provided by the user. At present, this software is not available to the public. Data needed: Base population by sex and 5-year age groups Assumptions about future levels of fertility, mortality, and international migration Age patterns of fertility, mortality, and migration (optional)

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population Output: Population projections for up to 300 years, by age and sex Demographic rates by age and sex, or aggregated Requirements: Windows 95 or higher Price: Not currently available for purchase Developed by: U.N. Population Division Contact: See above PDPM/PC (Population and Development Projection Methods for Microcomputers) incorporates routines to project population, households, school enrollments, employment, income, consumption and savings, and government expenditures, as described in the manual Projection Methods for Integrating Population Variables into Development Planning. The user can produce interrelated projections for these sectors. Alternative sets of assumptions can be used to produce various scenarios, and projection results can be compared. Furthermore, since many of these methods require parameter estimation, an ordinary least squares (OLS) routine is built in. Almost all projection methods in PDPM/PC can be used with nationallevel or with disaggregated urban-rural data. Data needed: Depends on the type of projection Output: Various types of projections, including population, household, school enrollment, labor force, employment, income, consumption and savings, and government expenditures Requirements: DOS 3.1 and 1.9 MB free disk space Price: US$100.00 (including manuals) Developed by: U.N. Population Division Contact: See above; also http://www.undp.org/popin/popdiv/catalogue/catdbs.htm PROJCT is a module included in MORTPAK-LITE 3.0, a U.N. software package for mortality measurement. MORTPAK-LITE contains 17 modules in the areas of population projections, life-table and stable-population construction, graduation of mortality data, indirect mortality estimation, indirect fertility estimation, and other indirect procedures for evaluating age distributions and the completeness of censuses. It incorporates recently developed techniques that take advantage of the U.N. model life tables and generalized stable-population equations. MORTPAK-LITE features an interactive interface and permits incorporation of method subroutines into user programs. Using the cohort-component method, the PROJCT module carries out single-year projections of a population by age and sex, based on initial male and female populations in 5-year age groups

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population and assumed changes in fertility and mortality. Projections can be made for up to 100 years. Data needed: Date of base population and end year of projection Sex ratio at birth Base population by sex and 5-year age groups Current and projected total and age-specific fertility rates Life expectancy at birth by sex Model life table (optional) Output: Population projections displayed on screen in tabular form or saved in ASCII format Requirements: DOS 2.1 and 1.3 MB free disk space Price: US$130.00 (for MORTPAK-LITE) Developed by: U.N. Population Division Contact: See above; also http://www.undp.org/popin/popdiv/catalogue/catdbs.htm THE WORLD BANK PROJ3S produces cohort-component population projections of up to 75 years. An initial population age distribution is projected using fertility, mortality, and migration assumptions specified by the user. The program consists of two independent modules, for data entry and for running the projections from the saved data. The program can: Carry out projections for any number of years from 5 to 75. Project any number of populations simultaneously, producing consistent totals. Interpolate to produce approximate populations by single calendar years, single-year age groups, or other specified age groups. Project forward and backward from a specified starting point. Apply models to distribute fertility, mortality, and migration by age, or accept user-provided distributions. Apply patterns for fertility and mortality decline, provide patterns when the user specifies dates at which fertility reaches replacement or mortality reaches a minimum level, or apply user-specified trends. Input routines request the necessary data, provide the features above as options for the user, and enforce some consistency among input parameters. PROJ3S is a smaller version of the program used for World Bank population projections. Documentation is in a World Bank working

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population paper by Kenneth Hill (1990), Proj3S—A Computer Program for Population Projections. Data needed: Population by age and sex, in 5-year age groups Total and age-specific fertility rates by period Specified life-table family and levels (from the Coale-Demeny model life tables) or a combination of levels, or user-supplied life tables Age- and sex-specific migration numbers, age- and sex-specific migration rates, or sex-specific totals Input data can be minimized by choosing model fertility schedules, life tables, and migration schedules. Alternatively, the user can specify rates by age and sex for each period. Output: Projected population by sex and 5-year age groups in 5-year intervals, for any number of years up to 75 (forward or backward or both) Crude demographic rates Life expectancy at birth and at age 15, infant and under-5 mortality rates, complete life-table values Total fertility, net and gross reproduction rates, births to women of different age groups Dependency ratios If desired, projected population by single years of age, by single calendar years, or both, or projections for specified age groups If desired, projections for a set of populations (countries, states, provinces, etc.) with aggregate output Requirements: DOS 3.1 Price: Free Developed by: Kenneth Hill of the Johns Hopkins University for the World Bank Contact: Health, Nutrition, and Population Advisory Service The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW, Room G 3-002 Washington, DC 20433 U.S.A. E-mail: Healthpop@WorldBank.org

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population U.S. CENSUS BUREAU RUP, the Rural/Urban Projection Program, projects population for two related areas (usually urban and rural) simultaneously. One can either project two areas and obtain the total as an aggregate, or project the total and one area and obtain the other area by subtraction. RUP is distinctive in several areas: Updating and projecting the base population. For instance, if a country has a population census in 1983 and good vital statistics up to 1990, RUP can update the 1983 base population with subsequent vital statistics up to 1990 and then project from 1990. Flexibility in detail of input data. Input data with various levels of detail can be used. Flexibility of reference years of input data. The demographic information used for projecting or updating the population can pertain to any year between the year of the base population and the final year of the projection period. Flexibility of output. Population and demographic components for the updating and projection periods can be obtained for any year, by single years of age, 5-year age groups, or special age groups. RUP consists of two programs: RUPMENU, which creates RUP input files, runs projections, and displays, prints, or saves results; and RUPAGG, which aggregates individual RUP runs (e.g., provinces to total country). Both can be downloaded from the U.S. Census Bureau web site, which also contains information about the manual, Population Analysis with Microcomputers, by Eduardo E. Arriaga and Associates. Data needed: General information (titles, projection date, number of age groups) Area selectors (total or subarea) Base population, by 5-year or single-year age groups Mortality data: from abridged or unabridged life tables; Coale-Demeny model life-table life expectancy; life expectancy to hit by interpolation or extrapolation; deaths, as available, by sex and age Fertility data: total fertility; age-specific fertility rates (by 5-year or single-year age groups); births (optionally by age of mother as well as totals by sex)

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population   International migration data: net migrants (total or by age and sex) or net migration rates (by age and sex) Internal migration data: net numbers of migrants (total or by age and sex) or net migration rates (by age and sex) Internal migration data: net numbers of migrants (total or by age and sex) or net migration rates (by age and sex) Output: Population measures: by 5-year, single-year, or special age groups; median age and dependency ratios Vital rates and events: births by age of mother; total fertility; age-specific fertility rates; deaths by age and sex; crude birth and death rates; life tables Net migration rates and numbers, international and internal, by age and sex Requirements: DOS or Windows Price: Free Developed by: Peter D. Johnson, International Programs Center, U.S. Census Bureau Contact: Peter D. Johnson International Programs Center U.S. Census Bureau Washington, DC 20233-8860 U.S.A. Phone: (301) 457-1467 Fax: (301) 457-3034 E-mail: peterj@census.gov http://www.census.gov/ftp/pub/ipc/www/rup.html http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/pam.html (for the manual) INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSIS PDE Population Projections is a tool for multisector population-development-environment (PDE) analysis and can also be used for simple or multistate projections of several interacting groups or states. These states may be countries, regions, educational categories, ethnic or language groups, or other groups, at the user's option. The program can handle 8-10 distinct states (assuming 5-year age groups), depending on the length of the projection and the number of age groups. Fertility, mortality, and migration rates can be defined separately for each state. Transitions between states can also be defined by age and sex. Defined rates

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population can be typed in or selected from pull-down menus or entered as proportional changes to predefined age-specific schedules. Changes can also be defined in summary indicators such as total fertility, life expectancy, or net number of migrants. Over time, specific rates can be entered, or rates can be interpolated between any two points or allowed to vary by a specified percentage per period. Input data can be entered directly into the program or provided in an imported spreadsheet. Results can be presented in tabular and graphical forms, with the graphs showing total populations or moving age pyramids. Data needed: Base-year population by age and sex Age-specific fertility rates, base year and projected Age- and sex-specific mortality rates, base year and projected Net migrants by age and sex, base year and projected Other age- and sex-specific transition rates, base year and projected (optional, for multistate projections) Output: Multistate population by age and sex through the projection period Requirements: DOS 2.1 or higher Price: Free download at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/POP/models/index.html Developed by: The Population Project of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Contact: Anne Goujon Population Project, IIASA Schlossplatz 1 A-2361 Laxenburg Austria Phone: (43-2236) 807-584 Fax: (43-2236) 71-313 E-mail: goujon@iiasa.ac.at http://www.iiasa.ac.at OTHER PROGRAMS DemProj is a module of the Spectrum System of Policy Models, which integrates population, family planning, and reproductive health computer models developed under the POLICY project and its predecessor projects. DemProj is used to create population projections for policy presentations or planning exercises or for input into other programs in the Spectrum

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population system. Intended mainly for the planner or researcher who is not necessarily a demographer, it has been used by a large number of planners and researchers around the world. DemProj can project urban and rural populations and the relative sizes of different regions or areas. Data needed: Base population by sex and 5-year age groups Total fertility rate for each projection year Male and female life expectancy for each projection year Selection of a Coale-Demeny or U.N. model life table Age distribution of fertility, either a model table or the distribution for each year, or the distribution for the base year only, in which case the Coale-Trussell model is applied Sex ratio at birth International migration (annual number of migrants by sex and 5-year age groups) Output: Population size by age and sex Total fertility rate, gross reproduction rate, net reproduction rate, mean age of childbearing, and child-woman ratio Life expectancy, infant mortality rate, under-5 mortality rate Births, deaths, deaths by age, crude birth rate, crude death rate, rate of natural increase, annual population growth rate, doubling time Sex ratio, dependency ratio, median age, population of any specified age group, population pyramids Requirements: At least a 486 PC, Windows 3.1, and 8MB free disk space Price: Free Developed by: The Futures Group International Contact: Kay Willson The Futures Group International 80 Glastonbury Blvd. Glastonbury, CT 06033 U.S.A. Phone: (860) 633-3501 ext. 285 Fax: (860) 657-3918 E-mail: k.willson@tfgi.com http://www.tfgi.com/software/spec.htm

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population FIVFIV produces population projections at national, regional, and city levels. It has been used by planning organizations in many countries and is also used widely for teaching and research, in order to illustrate demographic theorems and to produce simulations for analytical purposes. Output options include the ability to aggregate separate projections into various clusters and to produce single-year interpolations of 5-year results. FIVFIV also produces projections with migration for global population or subgroups (geographic, urban-rural, regional, ethnic, religious, etc.) and social and economic projections (age-and sex-specific rates for labor force participation, household headship, school enrollment, eligibility for health services, and marital status). Other options such as shifting initial date, user life tables, reverse projection, migration estimation, aggregation, and stable populations can be combined with any projection. FIVFIV comes in four languages, English, French, Spanish, and Turkish, although the printed manual is in English only. The program currently uses a DOS-based input editor. An evaluation copy can be downloaded prior to purchase. Data needed: Initial population Fertility and mortality rates Migration rate (optional) Age- and sex-specific rates (optional) Output: Population projection Requirements: PC Price: Free 2-week evaluation trial, then: US$79.95 (new users) US$64.95 (upgrade from FIVFIV 11.0) Free upgrade from FIVFIV 11.1 Developed by: HPN Technologies, Inc. (Frederic C. Shorter, Robert Sendek, and Yvette Bayoumy) Contact: HPN Technologies, Inc. 2900 Purchase Street Purchase, NY 10577 U.S.A. Phone: (914) 694-3365 Fax: (914) 694-3368 E-mail: support@hpntech.com http://www.visitus.com/popsite/software/fivfiv/ IPSS, the Interactive Population Statistical System, is an analytic tool for the Apple Macintosh computer to explore interactive population dynamics, forward and reverse population projections, and life-table programs. Data can be entered using the keyboard, mouse, pattern selection,

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population or pasting from a spreadsheet or word-processing document. Users may choose up to four scenarios each for fertility, mortality, migration, and special rates. Users select their own interpolation (fixed, linear, or geometric) between scenarios. Scenarios can be modified using the keyboard, drawing window, pattern icons, and percentage or summary rate scaling. All screen output can be printed, saved to disk, or copied to the clipboard for simple transfer to page layout and desktop presentation packages. Both tabular and graphic output can be pasted directly into spreadsheet or word processing programs and automatically converted to numeric data. Data needed: Base population by sex and age Age-specific fertility rates Age- and sex-specific survival rates Age- and sex-specific migration rates (optional) Age- and sex-specific special rates (e.g., voting, purchasing, disease, etc.) (optional) Years forward (5 to 200) or years backward (−5 to −50) for projection Output: Tables (standard or user-defined) Population pyramids (absolute, percent, graphic only, forward and reverse animation, 3D) Bar (2D and 3D) and line graphs for a variety of characteristics, events, rates, and ratios Lexis surfaces Requirements: Apple Macintosh OS6 or higher and 2MB free disk space Price: Free starter version, then: US$99.00 (full version) US$49.50 (students) Developed by: Jerry W. Wicks and Jose Luiz Pereira de Almeida Contact: Senecio Software, Inc. 139 W. Wooster Street Bowling Green, OH 43402 U.S.A. Phone: (419) 352-4371 Fax: (419) 354-7512 E-mail: info@senecio.com http://www.senecio.com/Senecio2IPSS.html LIPRO (Lifestyle Projections) was developed for household projections, but multistate-demography methodology allows it to be used for a wide range of calculations, including multiregional projections and life

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population tables. LIPRO has been extensively used for various applications in the Netherlands and other countries. LIPRO 4.0, the first version for Windows, was released in April 1999. It includes all the usual Windows facilities for user interface and data exchange. Communication with Microsoft Excel has explicitly been incorporated. In addition, the full documentation is now available via online help, including extensive tutorial materials. The tutorial contains a detailed description of a marital-status exercise that can be used to familiarize oneself with multidimensional demography in general and with its implementation in the LIPRO program. Data needed: Base population by sex, age, and other desired characteristics (e.g., region, marital status, etc.) Fertility and mortality rates (and other rates as desired) by sex, age, and other characteristics Rates (or transition probabilities) for other characteristics by sex, age, origin, and destination Absolute numbers of immigrants by sex, age, and other characteristics (optional) Instead of rates, data on observed numbers of event (births, deaths, moves) from which rates are automatically computed (optional) Output: A wide range of tables (standard or user-defined) on projected population stocks by sex, age, other characteristics, and year A wide range of tables (standard or user-defined) on projected population flows by sex, age, origin, and destination Age pyramids (graphs) Requirements: Windows 95 or 98 Price: Euro 175.00 Developed by: Evert van Imhoff, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) Contact: Evert van Imhoff Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) P.O. Box 11650 2502 AR The Hague The Netherlands E-mail: imhoff@nidi.nl http://www.nidi.nl/research/prj70101.html (electronic orders)

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population PEOPLE is a software package for national and subnational population projections, primarily designed for use in developing countries. PEOPLE readily communicates with commercial spreadsheet, database, and word-processing packages. Version 3.0 incorporates several new features, most notably the facility to make projections by single calendar years in addition to five-year periods. PEOPLE also gives a range of tables and charts to highlight analytical features of the results. The user's manual has been extensively rewritten to incorporate the numerous changes in the software. PEOPLE can be used in conjunction with WORKERS, a program to create labor force projections. Data needed: Depends on the level of detail needed Output: Basic projections, a range of tables and charts; can be printed or imported into word-processing, spreadsheet, or graphics packages Requirements: DOS 3.0 Price: Free Developed by: Economic Planning Unit, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia (with funding from the Overseas Development Administration of the Government of the United Kingdom and additional support from the Government of Malaysia) Contact: U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) Statistics Division U.N. Building Rajdamnern Nok Avenue Bangkok 10200 Thailand Phone: (66-2) 288-1234 Fax: (66-2) 288-1000 or 288-1001 E-mail: flatt.unescap@un.org http://unescap.org/stat/statdata/statpub.htm PEP (Program for Error Propagation) produces predictive distributions for future population using stochastic simulation. It requires, as input, point forecasts for age-specific fertility, mortality, and migration, as well as a specified covariance structure of forecast error. Input is accomplished through files, but parameters can be modified when PEP is run interactively. PEP produces a database of simulated population counts by single years of age. Results can be aggregated for user-defined groups. Statistical summaries and graphical illustrations are not provided but require a separate spreadsheet or statistical package. Details of data speci

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population fication and an example of results are shown in Reviews 1998/4 from Statistics Finland (Juha Alho, 1998, A stochastic forecast of the population of Finland). Technical details are available on the web site below. Data needed: Age-specific forecasts of fertility, mortality, and migration Covariance structure of forecast error Output: Database of simulated population counts by age and sex Requirements: Windows NT and 32MB memory Price: Negotiated on an individual basis Developed by: Juha Alho Contact: Juha Alho Department of Statistics University of Joensuu P.O. Box 111 80100 Joensuu, Finland E-mail: juha.alho@joensuu.fi http://www.joensuu.fi/statistic. PopX provides stochastic population forecasts for the United States by sex and age. The program uses the Lee-Tuljapurkar fertility model based on age-specific fertility rates from 1917-1995 and the Lee-Carter model of mortality based on age-specific death rates from 1900-1995. Historical mortality and life table values can be viewed over age and time. The projection starts with a population distribution and vital rates for 1995. Mortality and fertility can be projected deterministically or stochastically, with such parameters as drift and variance specified by the user. Immigration is modeled deterministically according to the Social Security Administration's high, medium, or low forecast scenarios as chosen by the user. Stochastic population forecasts generate up to 500 age- and sex-specific trajectories in five-year steps of age and time. The projected population can be viewed by age or time, and means or user-specified quantiles from the generated distributions displayed. Data needed: Historical data for mortality (central death) rates by age and sex Fertility rates by age Immigration by age and sex Legislated constraints on future immigration Initial population by age and sex

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population Output: Forecasts in the form of a collection of up to 500 sample paths of mortality, fertility, and population by age and sex, which can be used to estimate probability distributions of forecast quantities Requirements: Windows 95, 98, or NT Price: Contact info@mvr.org for information Developed by: Scientific staff at Mountain View Research Contact: Shripad Tuljapurkar Mountain View Research 2251 Grant Rd., Suite A Los Altos, CA 94024 U.S.A. Phone: (650) 937-1280 Fax: (650) 937-1284 E-mail: tulja@mvr.org http://www.mvr.org PRODEM (Proyecciónes Demográficos) is a Spanish-language computer program in use in Latin America and the Caribbean. It can create several types of projections, at different geographic levels, including national, major area, intermediate area, urban-rural, and minor area projections. Available methods depend on the geographic level. The component method is used for national and major-area projections. The population growth equation can be used for intermediate-area projections, while mathematical methods are available for minor-area projections. Subnational projections will be adjusted to match higher-level projections. Separate modules allow the user to project mortality and fertility rates by cohort. Data needed: Depends on type of projection and options selected Output: Depends on type of projection selected; interface with Excel is available. Requirements: DOS Price: US$20.00 Developed by: CELADE (Latin American Demographic Center), ECLAC Contact: Director U.N. Economic Commission for Latin American and the Caribbean (ECLAC) CELADE Casilla 179-D Santiago, Chile Phone: (206-1-562) 210-2002

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population   Fax: (206-1-562) 208-0196 E-mail: djaspers@eclac.cl; jchackiel@eclac.cl http://www.cepal.cl/celade-esp REFERENCES Bogue, D.J. 1996 Software for population and development research. In R. Hakkert and F. Willekens, eds., Evaluation of Demographic Software. Groningen, the Netherlands: Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen. Hill, K. 1990 PROJ3S: A Computer Program for Population Projections. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. Lutz, W., ed. 1996 The Future Population of the World: What Can We Assume Today? Revised 1996 ed. London: Earthscan Publications Ltd. McDevitt, T.M. 1999 World Population Profile: 1998. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Census Bureau. McGirr, N., and S. Rutstein 1988 Comparison of microcomputer programs for making population projections: An update. Mathematical Population Studies 1(2):173-205. McMurray, C. 1996 Software for population projections: A review of six packages. In R. Hakkert and F. Willekens, eds., Evaluation of Demographic Software. Groningen, the Netherlands: Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen. United Nations (U.N.) 1999 World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision, Vol. 1, Comprehensive Tables. New York: United Nations. World Bank 1999 World Development Indicators 1999. Washington, D.C.: World Bank.