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Beyond Six Billion: Forecasting the World's Population (2000)
Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education (CBASSE)

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BEYOND SIX BILLION: Forecasting the World's Population

sequent likelihood that they will be duplicated in the future. This is the issue for the following chapters.

REFERENCES

Alho, J.M. 1990 Stochastic methods in population forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 6:521-530.

Boudon, R. 1986 Theories of Social Change: A Critical Appraisal. Cambridge: Polity Press.

Cohen, J. 1979 Ergodic theorems in demography. Bulletin (New Series) of the American Mathematical Society 1(2):275-295.

El-Badry, M.A., and S. Kono 1986 Demographic estimates and projections. Population Bulletin of the United Nations 19/20:35-44.

Keilman, N. 1997 Ex-post errors in official population forecasts in industrialized countries. Journal of Official Statistics (Statistics Sweden) 13(3):245-277.

1998 How accurate are the United Nations world population projections? Population and Development Review 24(Supplement):15-41.

Keyfitz, N. 1981 The limits of population forecasting. Population and Development Review 7(4):579-593.

1982 Can knowledge improve forecasts? Population and Development Review 8(8):579-593.

Long, J.F. 1995 Complexity, accuracy, and utility of official population projections . Mathematical Population Studies 5(3):203-216.

Nagel, E. 1961 The Structure of Science: Problems in the Logic of Scientific Explanation . New York: Harcourt, Brace and World.

Stoto, M.A. 1983 The accuracy of population projections. Journal of the American Statistical Association 78(381):13-20.

United Nations (U.N.) 1999 World Population Prospects: The 1998 Revision, Vol. 1, Comprehensive Tables. New York: United Nations.

Willekens, F.J. 1990 Demographic forecasting: State-of-the-art and research needs. Pp. 9-66 in C.A. Hazeu and G.A.B. Frinking (eds.), Emerging Issues in Demographic Research. Amsterdam: Elsevier.

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