Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium

Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee

Board on Physics and Astronomy–Space Studies Board

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee Board on Physics and Astronomy–Space Studies Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This project was supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Grant No. NAG5-6916, the National Science Foundation under Grant No. AST-9800149, and the Keck Foundation. Front Cover: The image is a portion of the Hubble Deep Field, the deepest image ever taken of the universe. The most distant galaxies in the Hubble Deep Field emitted their light when the universe was less than 1 billion years old—in other words, when it was less than 6 percent of its present age. In this image, we can establish that the most distant and therefore earliest galaxies were quite different from those we study nearby. They were smaller and less regular, as if they were being built up from primordial clumps of gas. But we have still not seen the very first galaxies and stars that were created after the Big Bang. Seeing the very first galaxies is the primary goal of the Hubble Space Telescope’s successor, the Next Generation Space Telescope. Courtesy of the Space Telescope Science Institute. Library of Congress Card Number: 00-112257 International Standard Book Numbers: 0-309-07031-7 (paperback) 0-309-07312-X (hardcover) Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet <http://www.nap.edu> Board on Physics and Astronomy, National Research Council, HA 562, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20418 Internet <http://www.national-academies.org/bpa> Copyright 2001 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS SURVEY COMMITTEE CHRISTOPHER F. McKEE, University of California, Berkeley, Co-chair JOSEPH H. TAYLOR, JR., Princeton University, Co-chair DAVID J. HOLLENBACH, NASA Ames Research Center, Executive Officer TODD BOROSON, National Optical Astronomy Observatories WENDY FREEDMAN, Carnegie Observatories DAVID C. JEWITT, University of Hawaii STEVEN M. KAHN, Columbia University JAMES M. MORAN, JR., Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics JERRY E. NELSON, University of California Observatories R. BRUCE PARTRIDGE, Haverford College MARCIA RIEKE, University of Arizona ANNEILA I. SARGENT, California Institute of Technology ALAN TITLE, Lockheed-Martin Space Technology Center SCOTT TREMAINE, Princeton University MICHAEL S. TURNER, University of Chicago NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL STAFF DONALD C. SHAPERO, Board on Physics and Astronomy, Director JOSEPH K. ALEXANDER, Space Studies Board, Director ROBERT L. RIEMER, Senior Program Officer JOEL R. PARRIOTT, Program Officer GRACE WANG, Administrative Associate (1998-1999) SÄRAH A. CHOUDHURY, Project Associate (1999-2000) MICHAEL LU, Project Assistant (1998-2000) NELSON QUIÑONES, Project Assistant (2000)

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium PANEL ON ASTRONOMY EDUCATION AND POLICY ANDREA K. DUPREE, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Chair R. BRUCE PARTRIDGE, Haverford College, Vice Chair (education) ANNEILA I. SARGENT, California Institute of Technology, Vice Chair (policy) FRANK BASH, McDonald Observatory, University of Texas GREGORY BOTHUN, University of Oregon SUZAN EDWARDS, Smith College RICCARDO GIACCONI, Associated Universities, Inc. PETER A. GILMAN, National Center for Atmospheric Research MICHAEL HAUSER, Space Telescope Science Institute BLAIR SAVAGE, University of Wisconsin IRWIN SHAPIRO, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics FRANK SHU, University of California, Berkeley NEIL DE GRASSE TYSON, American Museum of Natural History PANEL ON BENEFITS TO THE NATION FROM ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS STEPHEN E. STROM, National Optical Astronomy Observatories, Chair DAVID J. HOLLENBACH, NASA Ames Research Center, Vice Chair CONTRIBUTORS TO THE PANEL ROGER ANGEL, Steward Observatory, University of Arizona DOUGLAS DUNCAN, American Astronomical Society; University of Chicago ANDREW FRAKNOI, Foothills College PAUL GOLDSMITH, National Astronomy and Ionosphere Center, Cornell University NEAL KATZ, University of Massachusetts, Amherst EUGENE LEVY, University of Arizona STEPHEN MARAN, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center DAVID MORRISON, NASA Ames Research Center LEIF ROBINSON, Sky Publishing Corporation

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium WILLIAM SMITH, Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy, Inc. EDWARD STONE, California Institute of Technology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory CHARLES TOWNES, University of California, Berkeley VIRGINIA TRIMBLE, University of California, Irvine, and University of Maryland PAUL VANDEN BOUT, National Radio Astronomy Observatory SIDNEY WOLFF, National Optical Astronomy Observatories PANEL ON HIGH-ENERGY ASTROPHYSICS FROM SPACE ROGER D. BLANDFORD, California Institute of Technology, Chair STEVEN M. KAHN, Columbia University, Vice Chair LARS BILDSTEN, University of California, Berkeley FRANCE A. CORDOVA, University of California, Santa Barbara JONATHAN GRINDLAY, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics DAN McCAMMON, University of Wisconsin PETER MICHELSON, Stanford University STEPHEN S. MURRAY, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics RENE ASHWIN ONG, University of Chicago CRAIG L. SARAZIN, University of Virginia NICHOLAS WHITE, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center STANFORD EARL WOOSLEY, University of California, Santa Cruz PANEL ON OPTICAL AND INFRARED ASTRONOMY FROM THE GROUND ALAN DRESSLER, Carnegie Observatories, Chair TODD BOROSON, National Optical Astronomy Observatories, Vice Chair JERRY E. NELSON, University of California Observatories, Vice Chair JILL BECHTOLD, University of Arizona RAYMOND CARLBERG, University of Toronto BRUCE CARNEY, University of North Carolina JAMES ELLIOT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology RICHARD ELSTON, University of Florida ANDREA MIA GHEZ, University of California, Los Angeles

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium CHARLES LADA, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics JAMES W. LIEBERT, University of Arizona CHARLES C. STEIDEL, California Institute of Technology CHRISTOPHER STUBBS, University of Washington DAVID C. JEWITT, University of Hawaii, Ex Officio PANEL ON PARTICLE, NUCLEAR, AND GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE ASTROPHYSICS THOMAS K. GAISSER, University of Delaware, Chair MICHAEL S. TURNER, University of Chicago, Vice Chair BARRY BARISH, California Institute of Technology STEVEN WILLIAM BARWICK, University of California, Irvine EUGENE BEIER, University of Pennsylvania JOSHUA FRIEMAN, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory ALICE KUST HARDING, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center RICHARD ALWIN MEWALDT, California Institute of Technology RENE ASHWIN ONG, University of Chicago BOHDAN PACZYNSKI, Princeton University Observatory BERNARD SADOULET, University of California, Berkeley PIERRE SOKOLSKY, University of Utah RAINER WEISS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology PANEL ON RADIO AND SUBMILLIMETER-WAVE ASTRONOMY MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University, Chair JAMES M. MORAN, JR., Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Vice Chair GEOFFREY A. BLAKE, California Institute of Technology DONALD B. CAMPBELL, Cornell University JOHN E. CARLSTROM, University of Chicago NEAL J. EVANS, University of Texas at Austin JACQUELINE N. HEWITT, Massachusetts Institute of Technology KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory ALAN P. MARSCHER, Boston University STEVEN T. MYERS, University of Pennsylvania

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium MARK J. REID, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics WILLIAM J. WELCH, University of California, Berkeley DONALD BACKER, University of California, Berkeley, Consultant PANEL ON SOLAR ASTRONOMY MICHAEL KNOELKER, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Chair ALAN TITLE, Lockheed-Martin Space Technology Center, Vice Chair DALE EVERETT GARY, New Jersey Institute of Technology PHILIP R. GOODE, New Jersey Institute of Technology JOSEPH B. GURMAN, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center SHADIA RIFAI HABBAL, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics DANA WARFIELD LONGCOPE, Montana State University RONALD LEE MOORE, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center THOMAS RIMMELE, National Solar Observatory JOHN H. THOMAS, University of Rochester ELLEN GOULD ZWEIBEL, University of Colorado, Boulder PANEL ON THEORY, COMPUTATION, AND DATA EXPLORATION WILLIAM H. PRESS, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Chair SCOTT TREMAINE, Princeton University, Vice Chair CHARLES ALCOCK, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory/ University of Pennsylvania LARS BILDSTEN, University of California, Berkeley/Santa Barbara ADAM BURROWS, University of Arizona LARS HERNQUIST, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics CRAIG JAMES HOGAN, University of Washington MARC PAUL KAMIONKOWSKI, Columbia University MICHAEL NORMAN, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign EVE OSTRIKER, University of Maryland THOMAS A. PRINCE, California Institute of Technology ALEX SANDOR SZALAY, Johns Hopkins University ROBERT F. STEIN, Michigan State University, Consultant

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium PANEL ON ULTRAVIOLET, OPTICAL, AND INFRARED ASTRONOMY FROM SPACE STEVEN V.W. BECKWITH, Space Telescope Science Institute, Chair WENDY FREEDMAN, Carnegie Observatories, Vice Chair MARCIA RIEKE, University of Arizona, Vice Chair JOSEPH A. BURNS, Cornell University DALE CRUIKSHANK, NASA Ames Research Center RICHARD S. ELLIS, University of Cambridge ALEXEI V. FILIPPENKO, University of California, Berkeley MARTIN O. HARWIT, Washington, D.C. LYNNE HILLENBRAND, California Institute of Technology SHRINIVAS KULKARNI, California Institute of Technology ABRAHAM LOEB, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics ROBERT D. MATHIEU, University of Wisconsin WARREN MOOS, Johns Hopkins University J. MICHAEL SHULL, University of Colorado EDWARD L. WRIGHT, University of California, Los Angeles DAVID C. JEWITT, University of Hawaii, Ex Officio AD HOC CROSS-PANEL WORKING GROUPS Astronomical Surveys, Thomas A. Prince, Chair Extrasolar Planets, David C. Jewitt, Chair Laboratory Astrophysics, Charles Alcock, Chair NSF-Funded National Observatories, Frank Bash, Chair

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium BOARD ON PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY ROBERT C. DYNES, University of California, San Diego, Chair ROBERT C. RICHARDSON, Cornell University, Vice Chair GORDON A. BAYM, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign WILLIAM BIALEK, NEC Research Institute VAL FITCH, Princeton University RICHARD D. HAZELTINE, University of Texas at Austin JOHN HUCHRA, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics JOHN C. MATHER, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center CHERRY ANN MURRAY, Lucent Technologies ANNEILA I. SARGENT, California Institute of Technology JOSEPH H. TAYLOR, JR., Princeton University KATHLEEN TAYLOR, General Motors Research and Development Center J. ANTHONY TYSON, Lucent Technologies CARL E. WIEMAN, JILA/University of Colorado, Boulder PETER G. WOLYNES, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign DONALD C. SHAPERO, Director ROBERT L. RIEMER, Associate Director JOEL R. PARRIOTT, Program Officer ACHILLES SPELIOTOPOULOS, Program Officer GRACE WANG, Administrative Associate (1998-1999) SÄRAH A. CHOUDHURY, Project Associate MICHAEL LU, Project Assistant (1998-2000) NELSON QUIÑONES, Project Assistant

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium Preface In 1997, the Board on Physics and Astronomy asked BPA member Anthony Readhead and director Don Shapero to convene a small group of leading astronomers to consider the need for a new decadal survey of astronomy and astrophysics. The group concluded that the time was ripe for a new decadal survey in the 50-year series of such studies. It recommended the establishment of a new Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee to carry out a broad scientific assessment of the field and to recommend new ground- and space-based programs for the decade 2000 to 2010. It also considered the framework for the survey, which ultimately led to the following detailed charge to the committee: The committee will survey the field of space- and ground-based astronomy and astrophysics, recommending priorities for the most important new initiatives of the decade 2000-2010. The principal goal of the study will be an assessment of proposed activities in astronomy and astrophysics and the preparation of a concise report addressed to the agencies supporting the field, the congressional committees with jurisdiction over these agencies, and the scientific community. The study will restrict its scope to experimental and theoretical aspects of subfields involving remote observations from the Earth and space and analysis of astronomical objects. Missions to make in situ studies of the Earth and planets, which have been treated by other National Research Council and Academy reports, will be excluded. Attention will be given to effective implementation of proposed and existing programs and to the organizational infrastructure and the human aspects of the field involving demography and education. Promising areas for the development of new technologies will be suggested. A brief review of the initiatives of other nations will be given together with a discussion of the possibilities of joint ventures and other forms of international cooperation. Prospects for combining resources—private, state, federal, and international—to build the strongest program possible

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium for U.S. astronomy will be explored. Recommendations for new initiatives will be presented in priority order within different categories. The committee will also address two questions posed by the House Science Committee staff: Have NASA and NSF mission objectives resulted in a balanced, broad-based, robust science program for astronomy? That is, NASA’s mission is to fund research that supports flight programs and focused campaigns such as Origins, whereas NSF’s mission is to support basic research. Have these overall missions been adequately coordinated and has this resulted in an optimum science program from a productivity standpoint? What special strategies are needed for strategic cooperation between NASA and NSF? Should these be included in agency strategic plans? How do NASA and NSF determine the relative priority of new technological opportunities (including new facilities) compared to providing long-term support for associated research grants and facility operations? The committee will consult widely within the astronomical and astrophysical community and make a concerted effort to disseminate its recommendations promptly and effectively. The two major questions posed by the House Science Committee staff (detailed above) were accompanied by several other questions that were treated in a report entitled Federal Funding of Astronomical Research, prepared by the Committee on Astronomy and Astrophysics (National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 2000). That report was submitted to the survey committee as input to its deliberations. The National Research Council established the survey under the auspices of the BPA, which oversaw the study in close consultation with the Space Studies Board. After consultations with members of the National Academy of Sciences Astronomy Section, members of astronomy departments in U.S. universities, and other leading astronomers, the BPA presented a slate of nominees for membership on the survey committee to the chair of the National Research Council. The NRC chair subsequently appointed the 15-member Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee (AASC), with Joseph H. Taylor, Jr., and Christopher F. McKee as co-chairs, to carry out the study. To provide detailed input to the AASC on the wavelength-based subdisciplines of astronomy and other areas, nine panels were established. Each panel’s vice chair was selected from the membership of the AASC. The panel vice chairs were thus able to serve as liaisons between the panels and the main committee and to articulate the priorities of the subdisciplines within the AASC in the process of setting priorities. The panels included more than 100 people, who together were able to

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium encompass the enormous intellectual breadth of modern astronomy and astrophysics. Each panel met three times and also held two open “town meeting” sessions at the January and June 1999 meetings of the American Astronomical Society. Many of the panel members also held sessions at other professional gatherings, as well as at astronomical departments and centers throughout the United States. The seven science panels were charged with preparing reports that identified the most important scientific goals in their respective areas, prioritizing the new initiatives needed to achieve these goals, recommending proposals for technology development, considering the possibilities for international collaboration, and discussing any policy issues relevant to their charge. The science panels were High-energy Astrophysics from Space; Optical and Infrared Astronomy from the Ground; Particle, Nuclear, and Gravitational-Wave Astrophysics; Radio and Submillimeter-Wave Astronomy; Solar Astronomy; Theory, Computation, and Data Exploration; and Ultraviolet, Optical, and Infrared Astronomy from Space. Their reports are published in a separate volume entitled Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium: Panel Reports (National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 2001). The reports of the other two panels—Astronomy Education and Policy, and Benefits to the Nation from Astronomy and Astrophysics—were revised and incorporated into the AASC main report. As mentioned above, the AASC also drew on the report Federal Funding of Astronomical Research as well as other NRC reports cited in the text. Further valuable input to the AASC and its panels was provided by four ad hoc cross-panel working groups: Astronomical Surveys (T. Prince, Chair), Extrasolar Planets (D. Jewitt, Chair), Laboratory Astrophysics (C. Alcock, Chair), and NSF-Funded National Observatories (F. Bash, Chair). Members of the survey committee and the panels consulted widely with their colleagues to solicit advice and to inform other members of the astronomical community of the main issues facing the committee. This consultation process provided useful input for the panel reports and also gave the survey committee a good picture of the community consensus

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium on the various initiatives under consideration for inclusion among the priorities of the main report. At the final AASC meeting in late 1999, the panel chairs participated with members of the survey committee to develop the new decadal survey’s recommendations. The committee based its final recommendations and priorities in significant part on the panel reports and on the discussions with the panel chairs. As mentioned above, the panel reports, reviewed by the National Research Council together with the main report, are published in a separate volume subtitled Panel Reports. The overall priorities are presented in the present volume. The panel reports contain, in addition to more detailed discussion of these priorities, further projects and topics that were not selected by the AASC for inclusion among the overall priorities that are viewed as having importance for the field as a whole. The AASC is grateful to the many astronomers, both in the United States and from abroad, who provided written advice or participated in organized discussions. We thank the National Science Foundation, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Keck Foundation for providing support for the project. We are grateful to Robert Milkey and Kevin Marvel and to the American Astronomical Society for assistance in the community outreach and town meeting sessions. The committee also acknowledges the assistance of NRC staff members, particularly the outstanding work of Joel Parriott and Roc Riemer, who provided support for the entire project, Susan Maurizi and Liz Fikre, who edited the reports, and the National Academy Press, which published the reports. We are also indebted to Robert Sokol and Ken Van Pool of Design@Large for their innovative design of the booklet that gives an overview of and popularizes the results of the survey. The timely completion of this report would not have been possible without the unstinting efforts of David Hollenbach, who served both as a member of the committee and as Executive Officer. Many other people too numerous to cite individually assisted in various aspects of the survey. We thank them all for their assistance. Christopher F. McKee and Joseph H. Taylor, Jr., Co-chairs Astronomy and Astrophysics Survey Committee

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their review of this report and/or one or more of the panel reports: W. David Arnett, Steward Observatory, University of Arizona, Peter Banks, ERIM International, Inc. (retired), Gordon A. Baym, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Roger Chevalier, University of Virginia, Anita L. Cochran, University of Texas at Austin, Marshall H. Cohen, California Institute of Technology, Anne P. Cowley, Arizona State University, Val L. Fitch, Princeton University, Bill Green, former Congressman, New York, Karen L. Harvey, Solar Physics Research Group, John P. Huchra, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Robert P. Kirshner, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Chryssa Kouveliotou, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Richard G. Kron, Yerkes Observatory, Jeffrey Linsky, University of Colorado/JILA,

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium Richard McCray, University of Colorado/JILA, Melissa McGrath, Space Telescope Science Institute, Mark Morris, University of California, Los Angeles, Martin J. Rees, Institute of Astronomy, Cambridge University, U.K., Morton S. Roberts, National Radio Astronomy Observatory– Charlottesville, Patrick Thaddeus, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, J. Anthony Tyson, Lucent Technologies, and David T. Wilkinson, Princeton University. Although the reviewers listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the conclusions or recommendations, nor did they see the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report and of the panel reports was overseen by Nicholas P. Samios, Brookhaven National Laboratory, appointed by the NRC’s Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications, and Lewis M. Branscomb, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, appointed by the Report Review Committee, who were responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the reports was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report and the panel reports rests entirely with the authoring committee and the institution.

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   RECOMMENDATIONS   17      Introduction,   18      Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium,   18      Accomplishments of the 1990s,   18      The Legacy of the Previous Decadal Survey,   19      Approach and Scope,   21      Implementation of the Charge,   21      Purpose and Content of the Two Volumes,   22      Optimizing the Return on the Nation’s Investment in Astronomy and Astrophysics,   23      Balancing New Initiatives with the Ongoing Program,   24      Strengthening Ground-Based Astronomy and Astrophysics,   26      Ensuring the Diversity of NASA Missions,   28      Integrating Theory Challenges with New Initiatives,   28      Coordinating Programs Among Federal Agencies,   29      Collaborating with International Partners,   30      New Investments in Astronomy and Astrophysics,   31      Proposed Priorites for Ground- and Space-Based Initiatives,   31      Explanation of New Initiatives,   36      Technology,   45      Astronomy’s Role in Education,   47      Notes,   49 2   THE SCIENCE BEHIND THE RECOMMENDATIONS   51      A Vision for Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Century,   52      The Formation and Evolution of Planets,   55

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium      Stars and Stellar Evolution,   63      Star Formation,   63      The Sun,   65      Stellar Metamorphosis,   68      Galaxies,   73      Formation and Evolution of Galaxies,   73      Evolution of the Interstellar Medium in Galaxies,   78      Galactic Nuclei,   80      The Universe,   85      The Evolution of the Universe,   86      The Evolution of Structure in the Universe,   88      Composition of the Universe,   91 3   THE NEW INITIATIVES: BUILDING ON THE CURRENT PROGRAM   95      Introduction,   96      The Ultraviolet, Optical, and Infrared Windows onto the Universe,   96      Large Filled-Aperture Optical and Infrared Telescopes: NGST and GSMT,   100      Optical and Infrared Surveys: LSST,   106      The Telescope System Instrumentation Program—TSIP,   108      Far-Infrared Astronomy from Space: SAFIR,   109      Infrared Interferometry from Space: TPF,   110      Ultraviolet and Optical Astronomy from Space,   113      Solar Astronomy,   114      Ground-Based Solar Astronomy: AST and FASR,   114      Space-Based Solar Astronomy: SDO,   116      The High-Energy Universe,   117      High-Energy Photons: Con-X, GLAST, VERITAS, and EXIST,   117      Gravitational Radiation: LISA,   122      Particle Astrophysics,   123      The Radio Universe,   124      Centimeter-Wavelength Astronomy: EVLA, SKA, and ARISE,   125      Millimeter- and Submillimeter-Wave Astronomy: CARMA and SPST,   128      The Cosmic Microwave Background Radiation,   129      The Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence,   131      The National Virtual Observatory and Other High-Leverage, Small Initiatives,   132

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium 4   BENEFITS TO THE NATION FROM ASTRONOMY   137      Introduction,   138      The Role of Astronomy in Public Science Education,   138      The Relevance of Astronomy,   139      Conveying Astronomy to the Public,   140      Astronomy in Precollege Science Education,   142      The Practical Contributions of Astronomy to Society,   146      Antennas, Mirrors, and Telescopes,   146      Sensors, Detectors, and Amplifiers,   147      Spectrometers and Devices to Focus Radiation,   150      Image Reconstruction,   151      Precision Timing and Position Measurements,   151      Data Analysis and Numerical Computation,   152      Earth’s Environment and Planetary Survival,   153      Connections Between Astronomy and Other Disciplines,   154      Interactions with Physics,   154      Astronomy and the Computational Sciences,   156      Potential Interactions with the Biological Sciences: Astrobiology,   157      Note,   158 5   THE ROLE OF ASTRONOMY IN EDUCATION   159      Introduction,   160      Strategies to Achieve the Four Educational Goals,   162      Communicate Discoveries and Excitement of Science,   162      Expand Outreach to K-12 Students,   165      Improve Science Literacy for Undergraduates,   167      Contribute to a Technically Trained Work Force,   170      Prepare Professional Astronomers,   173      Existing Programs and Future Directions,   174 6   POLICY FOR ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS   177      Introduction,   178      Policy Recommendations for the National Science Foundation: Ground-Based Facilities,   179      Recommended New Paradigm,   181      Roles and Responsibilities of National Astronomy Organizations and Independent Observatories,   182      New Procedures and Strategies,   184

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Astronomy and Astrophysics in the New Millennium      National Science Foundation Grants in Astronomy and Astrophysics,   190      Policy Recommendations for NASA: Space-Based Astronomy,   193      Policy Recommendation for the Department of Energy: Astrophysical Research,   195      Environmental Impact on Astronomical Observations,   196      Issues of Professional Development,   197      Postdoctoral Training,   198      NASA’s Long-Term Space Astrophysics Program,   198      Women in Astronomy,   199      Minority Scientists in Astronomy,   200      Role of Professional Societies,   201      Congressional Questions,   203      Notes,   206     REFERENCES   209     APPENDIX—DEFINITIONS   213     INDEX   229