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Vision 21: Fossil Fuel Options for the Future (2000)
Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems (CETS)

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Vision 21: Fossil Fuel Options for the Future

Vision 21

FOSSIL FUEL OPTIONS FOR THE FUTURE

Committee on R&D Opportunities for Advanced Fossil-Fueled Energy Complexes

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.

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I

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Vision 21: Fossil Fuel Options for the Future Vision 21 FOSSIL FUEL OPTIONS FOR THE FUTURE Committee on R&D Opportunities for Advanced Fossil-Fueled Energy Complexes Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Vision 21: Fossil Fuel Options for the Future National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report and the study on which it is based were supported by Contract No. DE-FG01-98EE35047 (Task #4) from the U.S. Department of Energy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number: 0-309-06979-3 Available in limited supply from: Board on Energy and Environmental Systems National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. HA-270 Washington, DC 20418 202-334-3344 Additional copies available for sale from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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Vision 21: Fossil Fuel Options for the Future THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Vision 21: Fossil Fuel Options for the Future This page in the original is blank.

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Vision 21: Fossil Fuel Options for the Future COMMITTEE ON R&D OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADVANCED FOSSIL-FUELED ENERGY COMPLEXES JAMES J. MARKOWSKY (chair), NAE,1 American Electric Power (retired), Columbus, Ohio DAVID H. ARCHER, NAE, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania RICHARD E. BALZHISER, NAE, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California DONALD A. BRAND, NAE, Pacific Gas and Electric (retired), Novato, California RAMON ESPINO, University of Virginia, Charlottesville ENRIQUE IGLESIA, University of California, Berkeley EDWARD S. RUBIN, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania ROBERT H. SOCOLOW, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey SAMUEL S. TAM, Bechtel Technology and Consulting, San Francisco, California CRAIG TEDMON, consultant, Hayden Lake, Idaho PHILIP W. WINKLER, Air Products and Chemicals, Allentown, Pennsylvania RONALD H. WOLK, Wolk Integrated Technical Services, San Jose, California JOHN M. WOOTTEN, Peabody Group, Saint Louis, Missouri Liaison from the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems WILLIAM FULKERSON, University of Tennessee, Knoxville Project Staff RICHARD CAMPBELL, program officer and study director JAMES ZUCHETTO, board director CRISTELLEN BANKS, project assistant (until October 31, 1999) 1   National Academy of Engineering.

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Vision 21: Fossil Fuel Options for the Future BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS ROBERT L. HIRSCH (chair), Advanced Power Technologies, Inc., Washington, D.C. RICHARD E. BALZHISER, NAE,1 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (retired), Menlo Park, California EVERETT H. BECKNER, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Albuquerque, New Mexico (until December 2, 1999) WILLIAM L. FISHER, NAE, University of Texas, Austin CHRISTOPHER FLAVIN, Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C. WILLIAM FULKERSON, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (retired) and University of Tennessee, Knoxville EDWIN E. KINTNER, NAE, GPU Nuclear Corporation (retired), Norwich, Vermont GERALD L. KULCINSKI, NAE, University of Wisconsin, Madison EDWARD S. RUBIN, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania ROBERT W. SHAW JR., Aretê Corporation, Center Harbor, New Hampshire JACK SIEGEL, Energy Resources International, Inc., Washington, D.C. ROBERT SOCOLOW, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey K. ANNE STREET, consultant, Alexandria, Virginia KATHLEEN C. TAYLOR, NAE, General Motors Corporation, Warren, Michigan JACK WHITE, The Winslow Group, LLC, Fairfax, Virginia JOHN J. WISE, NAE, Mobil Research and Development Company (retired), Princeton, New Jersey Liaisons from the Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems RUTH M. DAVIS, NAE, Pymatuning Group, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia GAIL DE PLANQUE, NAE, consultant, Potomac, Maryland LAWRENCE T. PAPAY, NAE, Science Applications International Corporation, San Diego, California Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, director RICHARD CAMPBELL, program officer SUSANNA CLARENDON, financial associate CRISTELLYN BANKS, project assistant (until October 31, 1999) ANA-MARIA IGNAT, project assistant 1   National Academy of Engineering.

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Vision 21: Fossil Fuel Options for the Future Acknowledgments The Committee on R&D Opportunities for Advanced Fossil-Fueled Energy Complexes wishes to acknowledge and thank the many individuals who contributed significantly of their time and effort to this National Research Council (NRC) study. The presentations at committee meetings provided valuable information and insight on advanced technologies and development initiatives that assisted the committee in formatting the recommendations included in this report. The committee expresses its appreciation to the following individuals: Rita Bajura, Larry Ruth, Bob Romanosky, Abbie Layne, Kanwal Mahajan, Mark Williams, Gary Stiegel, Don Bonk, Chuck Schmidt, Doug Carter, and Tom O'Brien of the U.S. Department of Energy's Federal Energy Technology Center (now the National Energy Technology Laboratory); Ben Yamagata of the Coal Utilization Research Council; Robert Williams of Princeton University; John Cochener of the Gas Research Institute; Jim Childress of the Gasification Technologies Council; Doug Haseltine of Tennessee Eastman; Frank Bevc of Siemens Westinghouse; Ted Foster of Air Products and Chemicals; Neville Holt of the Electric Power Research Institute; Rod Judkins of Oak Ridge National Laboratory; John McManus and Manoj Guha of American Electric Power; Doug Fain of Bechtel Jacobs LLC; David Gray of Mitretech; Michael Gluckman of Columbia Energy; David Pai of Foster-Wheeler; Woody Fiveland of ABB; and Steve Gehl of the Electric Power Research Institute. Finally, the chairman wishes to recognize the committee members and the staff of the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems of the NRC for their hard work in organizing and planning committee meetings and their individual efforts in gathering information and writing sections of the report.

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Vision 21: Fossil Fuel Options for the Future The report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remains confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Francis Burke, Consol, Inc.; John Longwell, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; John Marion, ABB Ahlstrom Power/Combustion Engineering, Inc.; David Morrison, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (retired); Jon Pietruskiewicz, National Renewable Energy Laboratory; Louis Salvador, consultant; Harold Schobert, Pennsylvania State University; and Dale Simbeck, SFA Pacific, Inc. While these individuals provided constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.

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Vision 21: Fossil Fuel Options for the Future Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   14     Scope of the Study   15     Vision 21 Program Plan and Goals   15     Program Goals   16     Organization of Report   17     Reference   17 2   OVERVIEW OF THE VISION 21 PROGRAM PLAN AND GOALS   18     Budget   19     Goals   19     Structure   19     Principles   21     Achieving Vision 21 Program Goals   22     References   25 3   ENABLING TECHNOLOGIES   26     Fuel-Flexible Gasification   29     Advanced Combustion   35     Advanced Fuels and Chemicals   38     Fuel Cells   46     Fuel-Flexible Turbines   54     References   59

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Vision 21: Fossil Fuel Options for the Future 4   SUPPORTING TECHNOLOGIES AND SYSTEMS INTEGRATION   61     Advanced Computational Modeling and Systems Analysis   61     Materials and Heat Exchangers   66     Environmental Control Technologies   71     Gas-Stream Purification   77     Gas-Separation Technologies   80     References   84 5   COMMERCIALIZATION   85     Characteristics of the Future Market   85     Barriers to Commercialization   90     Overcoming Barriers to Commercialization   92     Timing of Vision 21 Program Strategies   98     Developing Countries   99     References   102 6   OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE VISION 21 PROGRAM   104     APPENDIXES         A Biographical Sketches of Committee Members   113     B Presentations and Committee Activities   117     C Vision 21 Program Plan: Clean Energy Plants for the 21st Century. April 1999   120     ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS   143

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Vision 21: Fossil Fuel Options for the Future Tables and Figures TABLES ES-1   Goals of the Vision 21 Program   2 2-1   Goals of the Vision 21 Program   20 3-1   Typical Costs for a Current Gasification Plant   29 3-2   IGCC Plant Components and Effects of Technology Improvements   33 FIGURES 3-1   Gasification plants by geographic region   30 3-2   Gasification plants by application   31 3-3   Gasification plants by technology   31

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Vision 21: Fossil Fuel Options for the Future This page in the original is blank.