An Assessment of Undersea Weapons Science and Technology

Committee for Undersea Weapons Science and Technology

Naval Studies Board

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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An Assessment of Undersea Weapons Science and Technology An Assessment of Undersea Weapons Science and Technology Committee for Undersea Weapons Science and Technology Naval Studies Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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An Assessment of Undersea Weapons Science and Technology NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This work was performed under Department of the Navy Contract N00014-99-C-0307 issued by the Office of Naval Research under contract authority NR 201-124. However, the content does not necessarily reflect the position or the policy of the Department of the Navy or the government, and no official endorsement should be inferred. The United States Government has at least a royalty-free, nonexclusive, and irrevocable license throughout the world for government purposes to publish, translate, reproduce, deliver, perform, and dispose of all or any of this work, and to authorize others so to do. International Standard Book Number 0-309-06926-2 Copies available from: Naval Studies Board National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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An Assessment of Undersea Weapons Science and Technology THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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An Assessment of Undersea Weapons Science and Technology COMMITTEE FOR UNDERSEA WEAPONS SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR., The Baciocco Group, Inc., Chair ARTHUR B. BAGGEROER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ALAN BERMAN, Center for Naval Analyses GERALD A. CANN, Rockville, Maryland A. DOUGLAS CARMICHAEL, Massachusetts Institute of Technology THOMAS A. CLARE, Fredericksburg, Virginia DENNIS F. COLIN, Lockheed Martin Federal Systems ALEC D. GALLIMORE, University of Michigan ERNEST L. HOLMBOE, Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University ALFRED I. KAUFMAN, Institute for Defense Analyses DAVID W. McCALL, Far Hills, New Jersey L. DAVID MONTAGUE, Menlo Park, California DOUGLAS R. MOOK, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company RICHARD F. PITTENGER, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution DANIEL SAVITSKY, Stevens Institute of Technology Staff CHARLES F. DRAPER, Study Director SIDNEY G. REED, JR., Consultant Navy Liaison Representative SPYRIDON G. LEKOUDIS, Acting Head, Engineering, Materials and Physical Science and Technology Department, Office of Naval Research

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An Assessment of Undersea Weapons Science and Technology NAVAL STUDIES BOARD VINCENT VITTO, Charles S. Draper Laboratory, Inc., Chair JOSEPH B. REAGAN, Saratoga, California, Vice Chair DAVID R. HEEBNER, McLean, Virginia, Past Chair ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR., The Baciocco Group, Inc. ARTHUR B. BAGGEROER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ALAN BERMAN, Applied Research Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University NORMAN E. BETAQUE, Logistics Management Institute JAMES P. BROOKS, Litton/Ingalls Shipbuilding, Inc. NORVAL L. BROOME, Mitre Corporation JOHN D. CHRISTIE, Logistics Management Institute RUTH A. DAVID, Analytic Services, Inc. PAUL K. DAVIS, RANDand the RAND Graduate School SEYMOUR J. DEITCHMAN, Chevy Chase, Maryland, Special Advisor DANIEL E. HASTINGS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology FRANK A. HORRIGAN, Bedford, Massachusetts RICHARD J. IVANETICH, Institute for Defense Analyses MIRIAM E. JOHN, Sandia National Laboratories ANNETTE J. KRYGIEL, Great Falls, Virginia ROBERT B. OAKLEY, National Defense University HARRISON SHULL, Monterey, California JAMES M. SINNETT, Boeing Company WILLIAM D. SMITH, Fayetteville, Pennsylvania PAUL K. VAN RIPER, Williamsburg, Virginia VERENA S. VOMASTIC, The Aerospace Corporation BRUCE WALD, Center for Naval Analyses MITZI M. WERTHEIM, Center for Naval Analyses Navy Liaison Representatives RADM RAYMOND C. SMITH, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 RADM PAUL G. GAFFNEY II, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N91 Marine Corps Liaison Representative LTGEN JOHN E. RHODES, USMC, Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director CHARLES F. DRAPER, Senior Program Officer MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant JAMES E. MACIEJEWSKI, Senior Project Assistant

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An Assessment of Undersea Weapons Science and Technology COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS PETER M. BANKS, Veridian ERIM International, Inc., Co-chair W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado, Co-chair WILLIAM F. BALLHAUS, JR., Lockheed Martin Corporation SHIRLEY CHIANG, University of California at Davis MARSHALL H. COHEN, California Institute of Technology RONALD G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University SAMUEL H. FULLER, Analog Devices, Inc. JERRY P. GOLLUB, Haverford College MICHAEL F. GOODCHILD, University of California at Santa Barbara MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University WESLEY T. HUNTRESS, JR., Carnegie Institution CAROL M. JANTZEN, Westinghouse Savannah River Company PAUL G. KAMINSKI, Technovation, Inc. KENNETH H. KELLER, University of Minnesota JOHN R. KREICK, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company (retired) MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania DUSA M. McDUFF, State University of New York at Stony Brook JANET L. NORWOOD, Former Commissioner, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics M. ELISABETH PATÉ-CORNELL, Stanford University NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory ROBERT J. SPINRAD, Xerox PARC (retired) MYRON F. UMAN, Acting Executive Director

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An Assessment of Undersea Weapons Science and Technology Preface The Department of the Navy strives to maintain, through its Office of Naval Research (ONR), a vigorous science and technology (S&T) program in those areas considered critically important to U.S. naval superiority in the maritime environment, including littoral waters and shore regions. In pursuing its S&T investments in such areas, ONR must ensure that (1) a robust U.S. research capability to work on long-term S&T problems in areas of interest to the Department of the Navy and the Department of Defense is sustained, (2) an adequate supply of new scientists and engineers in these areas is maintained, and (3) S&T products and processes necessary to ensure future superiority in naval warfare are provided. One of the critical areas for the Department of the Navy is undersea weapons. At the request of ONR, the National Research Council established the Committee for Undersea Weapons Science and Technology, under the auspices of the Naval Studies Board, to assess the S&T in this area. The terms of reference of the study called for (1) assessing the health of the existing Navy program in undersea weapons, (2) evaluating the Navy's research effort to develop the capabilities needed for future undersea weapons, (3) identifying non-Navy-sponsored research and development efforts that might facilitate the development of such advanced weapons capabilities, and (4) recommending how the Navy's research program should be focused so that it can meet future needs. In addition, the existing program was to be assessed in the following areas: Maturity of the key technology areas and challenges and cost drivers in those areas; Interaction with related technology areas; Program funding and funding trends; Scope of naval responsibility; Scope, degree, and stability of non-Navy activities in key technology areas;

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An Assessment of Undersea Weapons Science and Technology Performer base (academia, government, industry, foreign); Infrastructure (leadership in the area); Knowledge-base pipeline (graduate, postdoctoral, and career delineation); Facilities and equipment (ships, test tanks, and the like); and Integration with and/or transition to higher-budget-category programs. Finally, the assessment would answer two key questions: (1) What technology developments that are not being addressed, or that are being addressed inadequately, are needed to meet the Navy's long-term objectives? and (2) To what extent does the development of these technologies depend on Navy-sponsored research and development? The committee was composed of individuals from a variety of backgrounds and organizations. At its initial meeting, the committee received extensive briefings on the aims and accomplishments of the ONR undersea weapons S&T program (housed primarily in Code 333); this information was supplemented by additional information obtained through individual discussions with research performers and experts in the field. The committee's subsequent deliberations on the existing program and its adequacy were based on information provided in those briefings and discussions. Furthermore, in the report's discussion, findings, conclusions, and recommendations, the committee does not undertake to suggest a detailed restructuring of the program, but indicates the broad directions it believes the ONR program should take. The study began in August 1999 and lasted for approximately 5 months. During that time, the committee held five meetings: August 30-31, 1999, in Washington, D.C. Organizational meeting with briefings provided by ONR, the Program Executive Office for Undersea Warfare, the Naval Undersea Warfare Center, and the Applied Research Laboratory at Pennsylvania State University. September 14-15, 1999, in Washington, D.C. Briefings were provided by ONR, the Office of Naval Intelligence, the Naval Surface Warfare Center, and the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. October 18-19, 1999, in Washington, D.C. Briefings were provided by ONR and the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations [Anti-Submarine Warfare Requirements Division (N84), Surface Warfare Division (N86), and Submarine Warfare Division (N87)]. November 9-11, 1999, in Washington, D.C. Briefings were provided by the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations [Air Warfare Division (N88) and Expeditionary Warfare Division (N85)], the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Naval Research Advisory Committee, the Naval Undersea Warfare Center, and the Applied Research Laboratory at Pennsylvania State University. December 7-8, 1999, in Washington, D.C. Briefings by ONR. In addition, on November 3, 1999, two committee members visited the Applied Research Laboratory at Pennsylvania State University in State College, Pennsylvania. The resulting report, prepared in the ensuing several months, represents the committee's consensus view on the issues raised and questions posed in the terms of reference.

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An Assessment of Undersea Weapons Science and Technology Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's (NRC's) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The contents of the review comments and the draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. The committee wishes to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: William H. Arnold, Westinghouse Electric Corporation (retired), Shirley Chiang, University of California at Davis, VADM James Fitzgerald, USN (retired), Analysis and Technology, Incorporated, Paul A. Fleury, University of New Mexico, RADM Richard Riddell, USN (retired), General Dynamics, Jack M. Sipress, Sipress Associates, and Edward Zdankiewicz, Arnold, Maryland. Although the individuals listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.

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An Assessment of Undersea Weapons Science and Technology Contents     Executive Summary   1  1   Introduction   6      Mission of the Office of Naval Research,   9      Strategy of the Office of Naval Research,   10      Report Outline,   10  2   Assessment of the Office of Naval Research's Undersea Weapons Science and Technology Program   11      Undersea Weapons Technologies,   11      Technology Issues,   23      Infrastructure,   27      Program Funding and Transition Issues,   35      Summary of Assessment,   36  3   The Future of Navy Undersea Weapons: Important Issues   38      Undersea Warfare as a Context for Assessing the Undersea Weapons Science and Technology Program,   38      The Imperative for New Weapon Concepts,   39      The Planning Process,   40      Operations and Systems Analysis in Science and Technology Planning,   40      Lead Time for New Torpedoes,   41      Revitalizing Undersea Weapons Development,   42  4   Findings, Conclusions, and Recommendations   44

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An Assessment of Undersea Weapons Science and Technology     Appendixes       A Technology Insertion Road Map   49     B Lessons of the Advanced Rapid COTS Insertion Process   51     C Biographies of Committee Members   52     D Acronyms and Abbreviations   56