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FORECASTING DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF DOCTORAL SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS: Report of a Workshop on Methodology APPENDIX A WORKSHOP AGENDA Workshop on Improving Models of Forecasting Demand and Supply for Doctoral Scientists and Engineers MARCH 19-20, 1998 Lecture Room National Academy of Sciences 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel National Research Council MARCH 19, 1998 1:00pm Welcome Michael Teitelbaum Alfred P. Sloan Foundation Daniel McFadden University of California, Berkeley
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FORECASTING DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF DOCTORAL SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS: Report of a Workshop on Methodology Jeanne Griffith National Science Foundation 1:30-3:00pm Panel I Forecasting Models: Objectives and Approaches What would the characteristics of good models of supply and demand for scientists and engineers be? Such models would likely recognize that adjustment can occur in three dimensions: quantity, price, and quality. To date, models have focused only on quantity. What models can actually be estimated, however, depend on what data is available, not just rich specification. This session will focus on alternative approaches to models and describe what models could be estimated, given available data. It will also look at what additional data would make possible improvement in the kinds of models used to describe adjustment in these labor markets. Presenter: Burt S. Barnow Johns Hopkins University Panel: Ronald Ehrenberg Cornell University George Walker Indiana University John A. Armstrong IBM, retired
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FORECASTING DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF DOCTORAL SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS: Report of a Workshop on Methodology Chair: Ronald Oaxaca University of Arizona 3:15-4:45pm Panel II Neglected Margins: Substitution and Quality Much modeling of labor markets for scientists and engineers neglects price, price elasticity, substitution among different types of labor and other variables (corporate restructuring, use of different kinds of academic workers, effects of immigration, etc.). What are the external drivers of substitution? What data might serve as indicators? Presenter: Sherwin Rosen University of Chicago Panel: Michael Finn Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education Eric Weinstein Massachusetts Institute of Technology Paula Stephan Georgia State University Chair: Daniel Hamermesh University of Texas, Austin
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FORECASTING DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF DOCTORAL SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS: Report of a Workshop on Methodology 5:00-7:00pm Reception Members Room MARCH 20, 1998 8:30am Continental Breakfast Lecture Anteroom 9:00-10:30am Panel III Models of Scientific and Engineering Supply and Demand: History and Problems This session will focus on shortage/surplus or “gap” models that have been estimated in the past. Have they been useful? For what purposes? Given the importance of external shocks in these markets, how should the importance of inherent uncertainty be conveyed to non-expert users? Could these models be modified to take into account the simultaneous adjustments of quantity, quality, and price in either equilibrium or adjustment models? Presenter: George Johnson University of Michigan Panel: Geoff Davis Dartmouth College Charles A. Goldman RAND
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FORECASTING DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF DOCTORAL SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS: Report of a Workshop on Methodology Robert Dauffenbach University of Oklahoma Sarah E. Turner University of Virginia Chair: Brett Hammond TIAA-CREF 10:45-12:30pm Panel IV Presentation of Uncertainty and Use of Forecasts with Explicit Uncertainty What is the best way to communicate the sensitivity of model outputs to assumptions and to uncertainty? How should uncertainty be presented and explained to policymakers and others who are educated but not expert users? How and why are policymakers likely to misunderstand and “misuse” forecasts and what can be done about it by modelers/forecasters? Presenter: Nancy Kirkendall Office of Management and Budget Panel: Daniel Greenberg Bureau of Labor Statistics Neal Rosenthal Science & Government Report Johns Hopkins University
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FORECASTING DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF DOCTORAL SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS: Report of a Workshop on Methodology Chair: Caroline Hoxby Harvard University 12:30-1:30pm Lunch 1:30-3:00pm Discussion Panel Should we continue forecasting S&E supply and demand? Should forecasts be presented differently? Should we continue forecasting supply and demand for scientists and engineers? Should forecasts be presented differently? Moderator: Daniel McFadden University of California, Berkeley Participants: Alexander H. Flax Institute for Defense Analysis, retired Skip Stiles Committee on Science U. S. House of Representatives Open discussion
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