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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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FORECASTING DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF DOCTORAL SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS

Report of a Workshop on Methodology

Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
2101 Constitution Ave., NWWashington, DC20418

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance.

Support for this project was provided by the National Science Foundation and the Sloan Foundation. Opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the sponsors.

International Standard Book Number 0-309-07089-9

Additional copies of this report are available from:

National Academy Press
(http://www.nap.edu)2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Box 285Washington, D.C.20055800-624-6242202-334-3313(in the Washington metropolitan area)

Copyright2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

Printed in the United States of America

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

National Academy of Sciences

National Academy of Engineering

Institute of Medicine

National Research Council

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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COMMITTEE ON METHODS OF FORECASTING DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF DOCTORAL SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS

Daniel McFadden (NAS),

University of California, Berkeley,

Chair

Charles Clotfelter,

Duke University

Ronald Ehrenberg,

Cornell University

Daniel Hamermesh,

University of Texas

Brett Hammond,

TIAA/CREF

Caroline M. Hoxby,

Harvard University

Thomas Kane,

Harvard University

Charles Manski,

Northwestern University

Ronald Oaxaca,

University of Arizona

Jack H. Schuster,

Claremont Graduate University

Paula Stephan,

Georgia State University

George Walker,

Indiana University

Staff

Charlotte Kuh, Executive Director,

Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel

George Reinhart, Project Officer,

Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel

Cathy Jackson, Administrative Associate,

Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×

OFFICE OF SCIENTIFIC AND ENGINEERING PERSONNEL ADVISORY COMMITTEE

1997 – 98 Membership

M. R. C. Greenwood,

University of California, Santa Cruz,

Chair

David Breneman,

University of Virginia

Nancy Cantor,

University of Michigan

Carlos Gutierrez,

California State University, Los Angeles

Stephen J. Lukasik, Independent Consultant

Barry Munitz,

J. Paul Getty Trust

Janet Norwood,

The Urban Institute

John D. Wiley,

University of Wisconsin, Madison

Tadataka Yamada,

SmithKline Beecham Corporation

Thomas Young,

Lockeed Martin Corporation (Retired)

Ex-officio Member

William H. Miller,

University of California

Staff

Charlotte Kuh, Executive Director

Marilyn Baker, Deputy Executive Director

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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PREFACE

This report presents the findings of a workshop organized by the Committee on Methods of Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers. The committee examined the methodologies that have been used to forecast labor market conditions for scientists and engineers, identified and analyzed additional methodologies, and recommended improvements in the way that forecasts are presented to users. The committee was charged with three tasks. These were:

  1. Identify how estimates of supply and demand for scientists and engineers are currently used by policymakers with particular emphasis on how these estimates relate to the level of federal funding for research and development and the financial health of the academic sector.

  2. Identify the sources of uncertainty, outline the importance of definitions and underlying assumptions to state-of-the-art projection methodology, and discuss how these uncertainties and assumptions can be fairly represented so that policymakers can understand both the strengths and limitations of the estimates that they see.

  3. Recommend ways of presenting projections so that the sources of uncertainty are explicitly taken into account.

The Workshop on Improving Models of Forecasting Demand and Supply for Doctoral Scientists and Engineers met on March 19 –20, 1998. Four

Page viii Cite
Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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panels of experts were invited to participate in presentations and discussions. Biographical descriptions of these participants are presented in Appendix B. The methodological issues focused on four areas:

  1. Forecasting Models: Objectives and Approaches identified the characteristics of good models of supply and demand for scientists and engineers. The panel discussed how adjustment can occur in three dimensions: quality, price, and quantity. The session focused on alternative approaches to these models and described what models could be estimated given available data.

  2. Neglected Margins: Substitution and Quality examined the effects of price, substitution, and immigration on the modeling of labor markets for scientists and engineers.

  3. Models of Scientific and Engineering Supply and Demand: History and Problems focused on shortage/ surplus or “gap” models used for estimation in the past. The panel examined their usefulness, purposes, and their potential for modification of gap models in order to take into account the simultaneous adjustment of quality and quantity.

  4. Presentation of Uncertainty and Use of Forecasts with Explicit Uncertainty investigated the best ways to communicate the sensitivity of model outputs to assumptions and uncertainty. The panel focused on how uncertainty should be presented to policymakers and others who are educated but not expert users.

Forecast users and others with an interest in science personnel policy were invited to discuss their concerns about forecasts and their use. Appendix C lists persons who attended the workshop. Following the workshop, the committee met to formulate recommendations about productive avenues for research, data, and/or dissemination of the results of models for forecasting the

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×

demand and supply for doctoral scientists and engineers. The committee reached consensus on five recommendations, which appear in this report.

M. R. C. Greenwood

Chair

Office of Scientific and Engineering

Personnel Advisory Committee

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The Workshop on Improving Models of Forecasting Demand and Supply for Doctoral Scientists and Engineers benefited from the contributions of many people and was funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Sloan Foundation. The Committee on Methods of Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers acknowledges those who made the workshop successful. First and foremost are those workshop participants who prepared manuscripts that framed the issues for each panel. They include:

  • Bert S. Barnow, Objectives and Approaches of Forecasting Models for Scientists and Engineers

  • George Johnson, How Useful Are Shortage/Surplus Models of the Labor Market for Scientists and Engineers?

  • Sherwin Rosen (and Jaewoo Ryoo), The Engineering Labor Market

  • Nancy Kirkendall, All Models Are Wrong; Some Models are Useful.

Special appreciation is expressed to Michael McGeary, who prepared Chapter 1 of this report. I wish to thank the members of the committee for their contributions to the workshop. In addition, important contributions to the workshop's success were made by the workshop participants: Michael Teitelbaum, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation; Jeanne Griffith, National Science Foundation; John A. Armstrong, IBM; Ronald Ehrenberg, Cornell University; Michael Finn, Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education; Paula

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
×

Stephan, Georgia State University; Eric Weinstein, MIT; Geoff Davis, Dartmouth College; Charles A. Goldman, RAND; Sarah E. Turner, University of Virginia; Robert Dauffenbach, University of Oklahoma; Daniel Greenberg, Johns Hopkins University; Neil Rosenthal, Bureau of Labor Statistics; Alexander H. Flax, Institute for Defense Analyses; and Skip Stiles, Committee on Science, U.S. House of Representatives.

This report has been reviewed by persons chosen for their diverse perspectives and expertise in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. This independent review seeks to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel (OSEP) in making its report as sound as possible and will ensure that the report meets institutional standards of objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following for their participation in this review of the report: John Armstrong, Erich Bloch, and Robert Lerman.

The project was aided by the invaluable help of the OSEP professional staff—Charlotte Kuh, executive director; George R. Reinhart, project officer; Cathy Jackson, administrative associate; and Margaret Petrochenkov, who provided editorial input.

Finally, we wish to express our gratitude in memoriam to Alan Fechter, former executive director of the Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel. Forecasting demand and supply for scientists and engineers was one of Alan's ongoing concerns, and this report is dedicated to his memory.

Daniel McFadden

Chair

Committee on Methods of Forecasting

Demand and Supply of Scientists and Engineers

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2000. Forecasting Demand and Supply of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers: Report of a Workshop on Methodology. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9865.
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This report is the summary of a workshop conducted by the National Research Council in order to learn from both forecast makers and forecast users about improvements that can be made in understanding the markets for doctoral scientists and engineers. The workshop commissioned papers examined (1) the history and problems with models of demand and supply for scientists and engineers, (2) objectives and approaches to forecasting models, (3) margins of adjustment that have been neglected in models, especially substitution and quality, (4) the presentation of uncertainty, and (5) whether these forecasts of supply and demand are worthwhile, given all their shortcomings. The focus of the report was to provide guidance to the NSF and to scholars in this area on how models and the forecasts derived from them might be improved, and what role NSF should play in their improvement. In addition, the report examined issues of reporting forecasts to policymakers.

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