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Incorporating Science, Economics, and Sociology in Developing Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards in International Trade: Proceedings of a Conference Incorporating Science, Economics, and Sociology in Developing Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards in International Trade PROCEEDINGS OF A CONFERENCE BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.
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Incorporating Science, Economics, and Sociology in Developing Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards in International Trade: Proceedings of a Conference NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract/Grant No. 43-3AEK-6-80107 between the National Academy of Sciences and the U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-07090-2 Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, D.C. 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Printed in the United States of America Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
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Incorporating Science, Economics, and Sociology in Developing Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards in International Trade: Proceedings of a Conference THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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Incorporating Science, Economics, and Sociology in Developing Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards in International Trade: Proceedings of a Conference BOARD ON AGRICULTURE AND NATURAL RESOURCES T. KENT KIRK, Chair, University of Wisconsin, Madison DAVID H. BAKER, University of Illinois, Urbana SANDRA S. BATIE, Michigan State University, East Lansing MAY R. BERENBAUM, University of Illinois, Urbana ANTHONY S. EARL, Quarles & Brady Law Firm, Madison, Wisconsin ESSEX E. FINNEY, JR., Mitchellville, Maryland (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, retired) CORNELIA B. FLORA, Iowa State University, Ames ROBERT T. FRALEY, Monsanto Co., St. Louis, Missouri GEORGE R. HALLBERG, The Cadmus Group, Inc, Waltham, Massachusetts RICHARD R. HARWOOD, Michigan State University, East Lansing GILLBERT A. LEVEILLE, McNeil Consumer Healthcare, Fort Washington, Pennsylvania HARLEY W. MOON, Iowa State University, Ames WILLIAM L. OGREN, Hilton Head Island, South Carolina (U.S. Department of Agriculture, retired) G. EDWARD SCHUH, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis JOHN W. SUTTIE, University of Wisconsin, Madison THOMAS N. URBAN, Des Moines, Iowa (Pioneer Hi-Bred International, Inc., retired) ROBERT P. WILSON, Mississippi State University, Mississippi State JAMES J. ZUICHES, Washington State University, Pullman Staff WARREN R. MUIR, Executive Director (since June 1999) MYRON F. UMAN, Acting Executive Director (through May 1999) DAVID L. MEEKER, Director (since March 2000) MICHAEL J. PHILLIPS, Director (through January 1999) CHARLOTTE KIRK BAER, Acting Director (from February 1999 through February 2000) and Associate Director SHIRLEY B. THATCHER, Administrative Assistant Project Staff LUCYNA K. KURTYKA, Project Officer (since November 1999) MARY JANE LETAW, Project Officer (through October 1999) KAREN L. IMHOF, Project Assistant STEPHANIE PADGHAM, Project Assistant ELAINE McGARRAUGH, Editor
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Incorporating Science, Economics, and Sociology in Developing Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards in International Trade: Proceedings of a Conference Preface As the world economy has moved toward more open trade under the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), there has been an increasing focus on managing potential conflicts between a country's right to take measures to protect its citizens, production systems, and environment (including plant and animal species) from risks and the effects of such protection on trade. In the area of sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) regulations, the concern is that domestic regulations ostensibly designed as a means to protect plants, animals, or people may actually be used to protect domestic industries and interests. International standard-setting activities, the SPS Agreement of the Uruguay Round of GATT, and ongoing bilateral and multilateral negotiations are part of a process through which countries are attempting to manage conflicts between protective regulation in the SPS area and open trade. Progressive trade liberalization has increased the importance of managing SPS issues (e.g., quarantine policies, product and process standards) between countries as they seek to protect human, animal, and plant life and health from biological and chemical risks, while simultaneously facilitating trade. The SPS Agreement, which went into effect in 1995, itself defines a set of principles for this management and provides a forum for settling disputes within the World Trade Organization framework. However, the operation of that set of principles will only be fully defined through experience under the agreement. Furthermore, the acceptable relationship between SPS measures and trade is the subject of ongoing negotiation
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Incorporating Science, Economics, and Sociology in Developing Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards in International Trade: Proceedings of a Conference between countries through the standard-setting activities of international organizations and multilateral and bilateral trade discussions. Thus, we are in a period of active institutional innovation that is resulting in a revised set of international relationships. In 1998, the Economic Research Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture asked the Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources of the National Research Council to organize a conference to address the roles of science, economics, and culture in agricultural trade policy. The conference was to focus on how scientific standards could be applied to international trade agreements in the post-Uruguay Round era but also take into account critical nonscientific factors surrounding SPS standards and related technical barriers to trade. Specifically, the conference was to focus on: (1) the critical roles and binding limitations of science in assessing SPS barriers to trade; (2) the critical roles and binding limitations of economics in assessing SPS barriers to trade; (3) the roles of values, other socioanthropological factors, and associated politics in determining SPS barriers to trade; and (4) an analytical framework for incorporating science, economics, values, and politics in SPS decision making. The conference was held on January 25-27, 1999, at The National Academies' Beckman Center in Irvine, California. The participants focused on the roles of the biological and natural sciences, economics, sociology, politics, and culture, and approaches in understanding and evaluating differences in risk perception, assessment, and management across countries; the impact of SPS measures on plant, animal, and food safety; and the relationship between SPS measures and open trade. This report presents a synopsis of the two-and-a half-day event. The overview, which was prepared by Julie Caswell, provides a summary of the broad range of issues identified by the speakers and participants of the conference. I would like to thank Julie for her outstanding contributions to this volume both in this summary and in her thoughtful evaluations of the papers. I would also like to thank Timothy Josling, Raymond A. Jussaume, Jr., Peter Kareiva, D. Warner North, and David Vogel who assured the effort would be a success through thoughtful insights in the conference design and significant contributions during the meeting. The concepts presented in the overview are the result of many excellent ideas that grew out of formal presentations and group discussions during the conference. Chapters that follow reflect views and opinions of individual authors. It is conference organizers' hope that the ideas contained in this document and summarized in the overview, enlighten and inform future approaches to ensuring that scientific, cultural, and economic considerations are reflected in SPS standards in international trade. V. Kerry Smith Center For Environmental and Resource Economic Policy Department of Agriculture and Resource Economics North Carolina State University
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Incorporating Science, Economics, and Sociology in Developing Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards in International Trade: Proceedings of a Conference ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Many individuals contributed to organizing the conference, and to conference discussions and its proceedings. The Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources would like to acknowledge and thank the following individuals for their valuable assistance and contributions: JULIE CASWELL, University of Massachusetts, Amherst TIMOTHY JOSLING, Stanford University, Palo Alto, California RAYMOND A. JUSSAUME, JR., Washington State University, Pullman PETER KAREIVA, University of Washington, Seattle D. WARNER NORTH, NorthWorks, Inc., Belmont, California V. KERRY SMITH, North Carolina State University, Raleigh DAVID VOGEL, University of California, Berkeley The Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources would like to recognize the efforts of Mary Jane Letaw, Project Officer, during the early stages of this project. We also wish to thank Karen L. Imhof, Project Assistant, for her tireless assistance throughout this project, Stephanie Padgham, Project Assistant, for her work in the early stages of report preparation, Elaine MacGarraugh for editing the manuscript, and Laura Boschini, Project Assistant, for her efforts in preparing the final report for publication. Special thanks are due to Lucyna K. Kurtyka, Project Officer, for her dedication and continuing efforts in seeing this project through to completion. This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Lawrence Busch, Michigan State University, East Lansing; Ricardo Godoy, Brandeis University, Waltham, Massachusetts; Neal Hooker, Colorado State University, Fort Collins; D. Gale Johnson, University of Chicago, Illinois; G. Edward Schuh, Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis; Daniel Simberloff, University of Tennessee, Knoxville; Mitchell Small, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and Daniel Sumner, University of California, Davis. While the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, it must be emphasized that responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authors and the National Research Council.
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Incorporating Science, Economics, and Sociology in Developing Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards in International Trade: Proceedings of a Conference CONTENTS Overview Julie Caswell 1 Conference Organization 2 Current Institutions for Managing SPS Issues in International Trade 4 Discussion of Issues Related to SPS Management in International Trade 8 Summary 19 1. Historical and Social Science Perspectives on the Role of Risk Assessment and Science in Protecting the Domestic Economy: Some Background G. Edward Schuh 23 Historical Perspective on Protectionism 24 A Perspective on Risk Assessment 26 The Importance of Adjustment Policies 29 Conclusions 29 References 30 Part I: Agricultural Trade, Risk Assessment, and the Role of Culture in Risk Management 2. Sanitary and Phytosanitary Risk Management in the Post-Uruguay Round Era: An Economic Perspective Donna Roberts 33
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Incorporating Science, Economics, and Sociology in Developing Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards in International Trade: Proceedings of a Conference The SPS Agreement: Origin and Principal Provisions 35 Cost-Benefit Analysis of SPS Regulations 38 Is the SPS Agreement Congruent with Executive Branch Guidelines? 43 Conclusions 38 References 49 3. An Overview of Risk Assessment John D. Stark 51 Risk and Trade Barriers 52 What is Risk Assessment? 52 Selecting Toxicological Endpoints: What Do We Evaluate? 55 Deterministic Risk Assessment 56 Probabilistic Risk Assessment 57 Protecting Humans, Plants, and Wildlife 57 Risk Assessment of Genetically Engineered Organisms 61 How Can We Be Fooled? Unprovable Risks 61 Future Problems—Scientific Arguments About Risk Assessment 62 Conclusions 62 References 63 4. Technological Risk and Cultures of Rationality Sheila Jasanoff 65 Dimensions of Cross-National Variance 68 Varieties of Cultural Explanation 75 Conclusions 81 References 82 Part II: Political And Ecological Economy 5. Biological Impacts of Species Invasions: Implications for Policy Makers Karen Goodell, Ingrid M. Parker, and Gregory S. Gilbert 87 Impact from an Anthropocentric Perspective 88 Case Study 1: The Grape Root Louse Phylloxera—The Importance of Recognizing and Regulating Vectors 89 Vectors 92 Impact from an Ecological Perspective 94 Case Study 2: The Mosquito Fish—When Anthropocentric and Ecological Perspectives Clash 97 Predicting Outcomes of Species Introductions 99 Case Study 3: The Crayfish Plague and the Signal Crayfish—Limits to Prediction When Species Interact Synergistically 105 Setting Priorities for Management of Invasive Species 108 Conclusions 109 Acknowledgements 110 References 110
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Incorporating Science, Economics, and Sociology in Developing Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards in International Trade: Proceedings of a Conference 6. Risk Management and the World Trading System: Regulating International Trade Distortions Caused by National Sanitary and Phytosanitary Policies David G. Victor 118 Introduction 119 The SPS Agreement: Major Elements 120 International Standards 128 Other WTO Agreements: GATT 1994 and the TBT Agreement 137 The System at Work: Three Cases 139 Analysis of the System at Work 151 Summary 165 References 168 7. Accounting For Consumers' Preferences in International Trade Rules Jean-Christophe Bureau and Stephan Marette 170 Sanitary and Technical Barriers 170 Technical and Cultural Differences and Domestic Regulations 173 Accounting for Consumer Concerns 180 What are the Solutions for Reconciling Consumer Concerns and International Trade Rules? 182 Economic Analysis and the Settlement of Disputes 191 Conclusions 193 References 194 Part III: Case Studies 8. Case Study 1: Meat Slaughtering and Processing Practices 201 The Danish Approach to Food Safety Issues Related to Pork Products Bent Nielsen 201 Danish Consumers' Perspectives on Food Safety 201 Consumer Requirements of Danish Meat 202 Welfare 204 Conclusions 205 An Update on the Danish Salmonella Reduction Program 205 References 209 International Harmonization under the SPS Agreement Bruce A. Silverglade 210 References 216 9. Case Study 2: Plant Quarantines and Hass Avocados 217 Role of Science in Solving Pest Quarantine Problems: Hass Avocado Case Study Walther Enkerlin Hoeflich 217 Methodology 218 Results and Discussion 221 Conclusions 226 General Considerations 226 References 226
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Incorporating Science, Economics, and Sociology in Developing Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards in International Trade: Proceedings of a Conference The Hass Avocado Case: A Political Science Perspective David Vogel 228 Reference 230 10. Case Study 3: Genetically Modified Organisms 231 An Overview of Risk Assessment Procedures Applied to Genetically Engineered Crops Peter Kareiva and Michelle Marvier 231 Containment 232 The Principle of Familiarity 233 Small-Scale Risk Assessment Experiments 234 Monitoring and a Precautionary Approach 235 References 236 Approaches to Risk and Risk Assessment Paul Thompson 238 References 244 Appendixes Appendix A SPS Agreement 249 Appendix B Conference Program 263 Appendix C Program Participants 269 Appendix D Conference Participants 273
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Incorporating Science, Economics, and Sociology in Developing Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards in International Trade: Proceedings of a Conference TABLES, FIGURES, AND BOXES Tables Table 3-1 Acute LD50 Values of Selected Common Chemicals 54 Table 3-2 Pesticide Residues in Agricultural Commodities, 1997 58 Table 5-1 Counts of Plant Species Native to the United States That Have a Known Economic Importance 92 Table 6-1 Acceptances of the Codex Alimentarius Commodity Standards 134 Table 8-1 Monitoring Results of the Salmonella Reduction Program 208 Table 8-2 Special Slaughter Fees per Finisher 209 Table 9-1 Statistical Analysis of Hass Avocado Fruit Fly Infestation Levels in Relation to Percentage of Dry Matter 222 Table 9-2 Susceptibility of Hass Avocado to A. ludens, A. serpentina, and A. striata—Forced Infestations in Fruits Attached to the Tree and in Fruits at Different Time Intervals after Harvest (Uruapan, Michoacan, 1993–1994) 224 Figures Figure 2-1 A Partial Equilibrium Model of the Welfare Effects of Alternative Import Protocols 40 Figure 3-1 Dose-Response Relationship 54 Figure 5-1 Frequency Histogram of the log Response Ratio (lnRR) for Ant Impacts 96 Figure 5-2 Worldwide Distribution of Gambusia affinis 98 Figure 5-3 Mean Effect Sizes of Insect Invaders on Resident Confamilial Species Versus More Distantly Related Species 104 Figure 6-1 Elaboration of Food Safety Standards and Other Guidelines by the Codex Alimentarius Commission and its Subsidiary Bodies 130 Figure 9-1 Case Study: Hass Avocado Background Chart 220 Figure 9-2 A. ludens, A. serpentina, and A. striata—Forced Laboratory Infestation of Hass Avocados (Uruapan, Michoacan, 1993–1994) 222 Figure 9-3 Seasonal Fluctuation of Anastrepha ludens Populations and Minimum and Maximum Temperatures in the Hass Avocado Production Region of Michoacan, 1993–1994 225 Figure 9-4 Seasonal Fluctuations of Anastrepha ludens Populations and Hass Avocado Harvest Period in Michoacan, 1993–1994 225 Figure 9-5 Role of Science in Solving Quarantine Pest Problems 227
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Incorporating Science, Economics, and Sociology in Developing Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards in International Trade: Proceedings of a Conference Box Box 7-1 Methods for Estimating the Benefits of Sanitary and Technical Regulations 190