increasing costs, causing a decrease in new car sales, thereby limiting the rate of improvement in the societal benefits of new technologies
causing significant undesirable economic effects on the industry and the country
A partnership for technology development has several advantages. The resources of both the industry and a variety of government laboratories and universities provide a broad base for research and create a shared understanding of the solutions and trade-off possibilities. The lessons learned from the program could be used to inform future public policy decisions that may be less disruptive to industry facing regulatory requirements. Ultimately, this approach might be extended to enable a more rapid deployment of effective solutions to a broad range of societal problems, and, at the same time, promote a better understanding of potential side effects of changes.
PNGV’s approach has been to set one “stretch” goal with specific criteria and a 10-year deadline for “production-ready” technology together with a “best-efforts” fuel economy target of 80 mpg (gasoline equivalent). The program also set two other goals to encourage the near-term application of research results. Success, therefore, can be defined in many ways. The committee used the following criteria for determining success:
the attainment of all aspects of the “stretch” Goal 3, namely, the development by 2004 of a production prototype midsize sedan that meets all emission and safety standards, has a fuel economy up to 80 mpg, and costs no more than conventional 1994 family sedans, adjusted for economics
the development of vehicles by 2004 with a fuel economy and cost trade-off that maximize potential market penetration and meet Tier 2 emission requirements
the transition of as much of the technology developed as possible to a wide range of production vehicles (Goal 2) with significant progress toward a state of technology beyond 2004 that will be much more fuel efficient
In the committee’s view, the simultaneous attainment of the three critical requirements (emissions, fuel economy, and cost) of Goal 3 by 2004 is very unlikely. Although the 80-mpg fuel economy level appears to be technically feasible, the cost requirement is clearly unattainable with known or projected technological development in the program schedule (2004). Also, it appears that meeting the Tier 2 emissions standard will result in a fuel economy well below