REVIEW OF THE RESEARCH PROGRAM OF THE PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES

SIXTH REPORT

Standing Committee to Review the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles

Board on Energy and Environmental Systems

Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems

Transportation Research Board

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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Review of the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles: Sixth Report REVIEW OF THE RESEARCH PROGRAM OF THE PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES SIXTH REPORT Standing Committee to Review the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles Board on Energy and Environmental Systems Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems Transportation Research Board NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Review of the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles: Sixth Report National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This report and the study on which it is based were supported by Contract No. DTNH22-94-G-07414. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. Library of Congress Card Number: 00-104666 International Standard Book Number: 0-309-07094-5 Available in limited supply from: Board on Energy and Environmental Systems National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. HA-270 Washington, DC 20418 202-334-3344 Additional copies are available for sale from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 or 202-334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area) http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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Review of the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles: Sixth Report THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Review of the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles: Sixth Report STANDING COMMITTEE TO REVIEW THE RESEARCH PROGRAM OF THE PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES TREVOR O. JONES (chair), NAE,1 Biomec, Inc., Cleveland, Ohio CRAIG MARKS (vice chair), NAE, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan (retired), Ann Arbor WILLIAM AGNEW, NAE, General Motors Research Laboratories (retired), Washington, Michigan ALEXIS T. BELL, NAE, University of California, Berkeley W. ROBERT EPPERLY, Epperly Associates, Mountain View, California DAVID E. FOSTER, University of Wisconsin, Madison NORMAN A. GJOSTEIN, NAE, University of Michigan, Dearborn DAVID F. HAGEN, Ford Motor Company (retired), Dearborn, Michigan JOHN B. HEYWOOD, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge FRITZ KALHAMMER, Electric Power Research Institute (retired), Palo Alto, California JOHN G. KASSAKIAN, NAE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge HAROLD H. KUNG, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois JOHN SCOTT NEWMAN, NAE, University of California, Berkeley ROBERTA NICHOLS, NAE, Ford Motor Company (retired), Plymouth, Michigan VERNON P. ROAN, University of Florida, Palm Beach Gardens Committee Subgroup on Systems Analysis and Electrical and Electronic Systems JOHN G. KASSAKIAN (chair) JOHN B. HEYWOOD JOHN SCOTT NEWMAN ROBERTA NICHOLS Committee Subgroup on Batteries JOHN SCOTT NEWMAN (chair) ALEXIS T. BELL FRITZ KALHAMMER VERNON P. ROAN 1   NAE = National Academy of Engineering

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Review of the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles: Sixth Report Committee Subgroup on Fuels CRAIG MARKS (chair) ALEXIS T. BELL W. ROBERT EPPERLY DAVID E. FOSTER HAROLD H. KUNG ROBERTA NICHOLS Committee Subgroup on Fuel Cells VERNON P. ROAN (chair) ALEXIS T. BELL FRITZ KALHAMMER HAROLD H. KUNG JOHN SCOTT NEWMAN Committee Subgroup on Internal Combustion Engines and Emissions Control DAVID E. FOSTER (chair) WILLIAM AGNEW ALEXIS T. BELL DAVID F. HAGEN JOHN B. HEYWOOD CRAIG MARKS Committee Subgroup on Materials and Safety NORMAN A. GJOSTEIN (chair) DAVID F. HAGEN CRAIG MARKS Committee Subgroup on Cost Analysis TREVOR O. JONES (chair) WILLIAM AGNEW DAVID F. HAGEN

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Review of the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles: Sixth Report Project Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, director, Board on Energy and Environmental Systems (BEES) NAN HUMPHREY, senior program officer, Transportation Research Board SUSANNA E. CLARENDON, senior project assistant and financial associate, (BEES) CAROL R. ARENBERG, editor, Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems

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Review of the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles: Sixth Report BOARD ON ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS ROBERT L. HIRSCH (chair), Advanced Power Technologies, Inc., Washington, D.C. RICHARD E. BALZHISER, NAE, 1 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. (retired), Menlo Park, California WILLIAM L. FISHER, NAE, University of Texas, Austin CHRISTOPHER FLAVIN, Worldwatch Institute, Washington, D.C. WILLIAM FULKERSON, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (retired) and University of Tennessee, Knoxville EDWIN E. KINTNER, NAE, GPU Nuclear Corporation (retired), Norwich, Vermont GERALD L. KULCINSKI, NAE, University of Wisconsin, Madison EDWARD S. RUBIN, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania ROBERT W. SHAW JR., Aretê Corporation, Center Harbor, New Hampshire JACK SIEGEL, Energy Resources International, Inc., Washington, D.C. ROBERT SOCOLOW, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey K. ANNE STREET, consultant, Arlington, Virginia KATHLEEN C. TAYLOR, NAE, General Motors Corporation, Warren, Michigan JACK WHITE, The Winslow Group, LLC, Fairfax, Virginia JOHN J. WISE, NAE, Mobil Research and Development Company (retired), Princeton, New Jersey Liaison Members from the Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems RUTH M. DAVIS, NAE, Pymatuning Group, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia E. GAIL DE PLANQUE, NAE, consultant, Potomac, Maryland LAWRENCE T. PAPAY, NAE, Science Applications International Corporation, San Diego, California Staff JAMES ZUCCHETTO, director RICHARD CAMPBELL, program officer SUSANNA CLARENDON, financial associate ANA-MARIA IGNAT, project assistant 1   NAE = National Academy of Engineering

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Review of the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles: Sixth Report Acknowledgments The committee wishes to thank all of the members of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles who contributed significantly of their time and effort to this National Research Council (NRC) study, either by giving presentations at meetings, responding to requests for information, or hosting site visits. The committee also acknowledges the valuable contributions of other organizations outside that provided information on advanced vehicle technologies and development initiatives. Finally, the chairman wishes to recognize the committee members and the staff of the NRC Board on Energy and Environmental Systems for their hard work organizing and planning committee meetings and their individual efforts in gathering information and writing sections of the report. This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the NRC’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the follow individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Gary Byrd, consulting engineer; Tom Cackett, California Air Resources Board; David Holloway, University of Maryland; Patrick Flynn, Cummins Engine Company, Inc.; John P. McTague, Ford Motor Company (retired); Phillip S. Myers, University of Wisconsin; Jerome G. Rivard, Global Technology and Business Development; Robert J. Schultz, General Motors Corporation (retired); F. Stan Settles,

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Review of the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles: Sixth Report University of Southern California; Dale F. Stein, Michigan Technological University (retired). While the individuals listed above have provided constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.

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Review of the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles: Sixth Report Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   13      Program Milestones,   15      Scope of Review,   16 2   DEVELOPMENT OF VEHICLE SUBSYSTEMS   18      Candidate Systems,   18      Internal Combustion Reciprocating Engines,   19      Fuel Cells,   31      Electrochemical Energy Storage,   39      Power Electronics and Electrical Systems,   43      Structural Materials and Safety,   46 3   SYSTEMS ANALYSIS   56      Program Status,   56      Assessment of the Program,   57 4   CONCEPT VEHICLES   60      General Motors,   61      Ford,   65      DaimlerChrysler,   66      Summary,   68

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Review of the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles: Sixth Report 5   MAJOR CROSSCUTTING ISSUES   69      Background,   69      Major Achievements and Technical Barriers,   71      Adequacy and Balance of the PNGV Program,   75      Fuel Economy and Emission Trade-offs,   81      Fuel Issues,   83 6   PNGV’S RESPONSE TO THE FIFTH REPORT   88     REFERENCES   91     APPENDICES         A   Biographical Sketches of Committee Members,   97     B   Letter from PNGV,   104     C   Presentations and Committee Activities,   108     D   United States Council for Automotive Research Consortia,   111     ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS   113

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Review of the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles: Sixth Report Tables and Figures TABLES 2-1   Design Targets and Current Performance for Short-Term Energy Storage,   40 2-2   Current Specifications and Target Specifications for Power Electronics,   44 2-3   Weight-Reduction Targets for the Goal 3 Vehicle,   47 2-4   Material Cost Targets,   52 4-1   Comparative Attributes of PNGV Concept Vehicles,   62 4-2   Comparison of the Toyota and Honda Hybrid Vehicles,   64 5-1   Infrastructure Investment for the Production and Distribution of Hydrogen and Methanol,   86 FIGURES 2-1   Alternatives for energy conversion,   21 4-1   The General Motors Precept concept vehicle,   65 4-2   The Ford Prodigy concept vehicle,   66 4-3   The DaimlerChrysler ESX3 concept vehicle,   67 5-1   Distribution of DOE’s Office of Advanced Automotive Technologies budget for PNGV (by technology),   76

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Review of the Research Program of the Partnership for a New Generation of Vehicles: Sixth Report REVIEW OF THE RESEARCH PROGRAM OF THE PARTNERSHIP FOR A NEW GENERATION OF VEHICLES SIXTH REPORT

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