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Design in the New Millennium: ADVANCED ENGINEERING ENVIRONMENTS Design in the New Millennium ADVANCED ENGINEERING ENVIRONMENTS PHASE 2 Committee on Advanced Engineering Environments Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems National Research Council National Academy of Engineering NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.
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Design in the New Millennium: ADVANCED ENGINEERING ENVIRONMENTS NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contracts No. NASW-4938 and NASW-99037 between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the view of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number: 0-309-07125-9 Available in limited supply from: Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, HA 292, 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20418. (202) 334-2855 Additional copies available for sale from: National Academy Press , 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285, Washington, DC 20055. 1-800-624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area). http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences . All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America
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Design in the New Millennium: ADVANCED ENGINEERING ENVIRONMENTS THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
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Design in the New Millennium: ADVANCED ENGINEERING ENVIRONMENTS COMMITTEE ON ADVANCED ENGINEERING ENVIRONMENTS ROBERT E. DEEMER, chair, Catalina Research, Inc., Colorado Springs, Colorado TORA K. BIKSON, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California ROBERT A. DAVIS, The Boeing Company (retired), Seattle, Washington RICHARD T. KOUZES, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, Washington R. BOWEN LOFTIN, University of Houston, Houston, Texas JAMES A. MANISCALCO, Delphi Automotive Systems, Troy, Michigan ROBERT J. SANTORO, Pennsylvania State University, University Park DANIEL P. SCHRAGE, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta ALLAN SHERMAN, Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company, Sunnyvale, California JOHN SULLIVAN, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana GORDON WILLIS, Gordon Willis Associates, Ann Arbor, Michigan MICHAEL J. ZYDA, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California Liaison from the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board DIANNE S. WILEY, The Boeing Company, Long Beach, California Staff ALAN ANGLEMAN, Study Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board CAROL R. ARENBERG, Editor, Commission on Engineering and Technical Systems DOUGLAS BENNETT, Research Associate, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board LANCE DAVIS, Acting Director, National Academy of Engineering Program Office ALAN INOUYE, Program Officer, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board GEORGE LEVIN, Director, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board JENNIFER PINKERMAN, Research Associate, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board PROCTOR REID, Associate Director, National Academy of Engineering Program Office JERRY SHEEHAN, Senior Program Officer, Computer Science and Telecommunications Board MARVIN WEEKS, Administrative Assistant, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board
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Design in the New Millennium: ADVANCED ENGINEERING ENVIRONMENTS AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD WILLIAM W. HOOVER, chair, U.S. Air Force (retired), Williamsburg, Virginia A. DWIGHT ABBOTT, Aerospace Corporation (retired), Palos Verdes Estates, California RUZENA K. BAJSCY, NAE, IOM, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia WILLIAM F. BALLHAUS, JR., NAE, Lockheed Martin Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland ANTHONY J. BRODERICK, Aviation Safety Consultant, Catlett, Virginia AARON COHEN, NAE, Texas A&M University, College Station DONALD L. CROMER, U.S. Air Force (retired), Lompoc, California HOYT DAVIDSON, Donaldson, Lufkin, and Jenrette, New York, New York ROBERT A. DAVIS, The Boeing Company (retired), Blaine, Washington JOSEPH FULLER, JR., Futron Corporation, Bethesda, Maryland ROBERT C. GOETZ, Lockheed Martin Skunk Works, Santa Clarita, California RICHARD GOLASZEWSKI, GRA Inc., Jenkintown, Pennsylvania JAMES M. GUYETTE, Rolls-Royce North America, Reston, Virginia FREDERICK H. HAUCK, AXA Space, Bethesda, Maryland JOHN K. LAUBER, Airbus Industrie of North America, Washington, D.C. GEORGE K. MUELLNER, The Boeing Company, Seal Beach, California DAVA J. NEWMAN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge JAMES G. O'CONNOR, NAE, Pratt & Whitney (retired), Coventry, Connecticut WINSTON E. SCOTT, Florida State University, Tallahassee KATHRYN C. THORNTON, University of Virginia, Charlottesville DIANNE S. WILEY, The Boeing Company, Long Beach, California RAY A. WILLIAMSON, George Washington University, Washington, D.C. Staff GEORGE LEVIN, Director
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Design in the New Millennium: ADVANCED ENGINEERING ENVIRONMENTS This page in the original is blank.
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Design in the New Millennium: ADVANCED ENGINEERING ENVIRONMENTS Preface Advanced engineering environments (AEEs) combine advanced, networked computer systems with advanced modeling and simulation technologies. When more fully developed, AEEs will enable teams of researchers, technologists, designers, manufacturers, suppliers, customers, and other users scattered across a continent or the globe to develop new products and carry out new missions with unprecedented effectiveness. Business as usual, however, will not achieve this vision. Government, industry, and academic organizations need to make the organizational and process changes that will enable their staffs to use current and future AEE technologies and systems. The Committee on Advanced Engineering Environments of the National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering has completed a two-part study of AEEs. Advanced Engineering Environments, the Phase 1 report issued in 1999, identified steps the federal government, industry, and academia could take in the near term to enhance the development of AEE technologies and systems with broad application in the U.S. engineering enterprise. Design in the New Millennium, the Phase 2 report, focuses on the long-term potential of AEE technologies and systems. Appendices A, Appendices B, Appendices C of this report include a complete copy of the statements of task and the findings and recommendations resulting from both phases of the study. In both the Phase 1 and Phase 2 reports, the committee urges “the government” to take action. The committee was not chartered to determine which federal agency should take the lead in developing AEEs. Currently, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the National Institutes of Health are involved in AEE research and development. The executive branch (e.g., the Office of Management and Budget) should determine which agency should take the lead in carrying out recommendations for government action. This study was sponsored by NASA and conducted by a committee appointed by the National Research Council and National Academy of Engineering (see Appendix D). The Statement of Task directed the committee to pay particular attention to NASA and the aerospace industry. In most cases, however, the committee determined that issues relevant to NASA and the aerospace industry were also relevant to other organizations involved in the development or use of AEE technologies or systems. Therefore, although some recommendations specifically call for action by NASA, the report was written with a broad audience in mind. This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the National Research Council in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The content of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We wish to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: John Alden, Electric Boat Corporation Elaine Cohen, University of Utah George Gleghorn, NAE, TRW Space and Technology Group (retired) Joel Greenberg, Princeton Synergetics Larry Howell, General Motors Corporation Suzi Iacono, National Science Foundation Jeffrey M. Jaffe, Lucent Technologies David Japikse, NAE, Concepts ETI Jaron Lanier, Advanced Network and Services, Inc. Robert Naka, NAE, CERA, Inc. Henry Pohl, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (retired)
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Design in the New Millennium: ADVANCED ENGINEERING ENVIRONMENTS While the individuals listed above have provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the National Research Council. The committee also wishes to thank others who supported this study, especially those who took the time to participate in committee meetings (see Appendix E). Robert E. Deemer, chair Advanced Engineering Environments Committee
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Design in the New Millennium: ADVANCED ENGINEERING ENVIRONMENTS Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 PROLOGUE: A FUTURE PERFECT 5 1 INTRODUCTION 8 Defining an Advanced Engineering Environment, 8 Study Overview and Report Organization, 9 References, 10 2 “AS IS” TO “FUTURE PERFECT” 11 Product Design Practices Today, 11 Typical Practices Today, 13 AEE Success Stories, 13 Visions of the Future, 19 References, 20 3 EXPECTED FUTURE 21 Underutilized AEE Elements, 21 Major Areas of Improvement, 22 Expectations for the Future, 22 Comparison of Expectations to the 15-Year Visions, 27 Recommendations for Improving the 15-Year Outlook, 28 References, 28 4 OVERCOMING BARRIERS 29 Integration of Tools, Systems, Data, and People, 29 Knowledge Management and Security, 33 Organizational Culture, 35 Education and Training, 38 Management and Economics, 41 References, 44 5 GENERAL APPROACHES AND ROLES 46
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Design in the New Millennium: ADVANCED ENGINEERING ENVIRONMENTS APPENDIXES A Statement of Task 51 B Recommendations from the Phase 1 Report 53 C Recommendations from the Phase 2 Report 57 D Biographical Sketches of Committee Members 61 E Participants in Committee Meetings 65 ACRONYMS 67
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Design in the New Millennium: ADVANCED ENGINEERING ENVIRONMENTS Tables, Figures, and Boxes TABLES ES-1 High-Level Steps in the Design and Development of Products and Processes, 2 1-1 AEE System Components and Characteristics, 9 2-1 Current and Future Practices for the Development of Products and Processes, 14 3-1 Improvement Areas and Methods of Designing and Developing Products and Processes, 23 4-1 Traditional Metrics, 43 B-1 Barriers to Achieving the AEE Vision (from the Phase 1 Report), 56 FIGURES 2-1 Steps in the design and development of products and processes, 12 4-1 The lasting effect of legacy systems, 31 4-2 Fiscal year 2000 funding for the Information Technology Research Initiative, 32 4-3 Comparison of notional cost-time curves for projects using traditional processes and AEEs, 42 BOXES 3-1 Unpredictable Acceleration of Computing Technology, 24 4-1 Legacy Systems: Spaceships, Steam Engines, and Chariots, 30
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