Review of ONR's Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles Program

Committee for the Review of ONR's Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles Program

Naval Studies Board

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.



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Review of ONR's Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles Program Review of ONR's Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles Program Committee for the Review of ONR's Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles Program Naval Studies Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C.

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Review of ONR's Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles Program NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This work was performed under Department of the Navy Contract N00014-99-C-0307 issued by the Office of Naval Research under contract authority NR 201-124. However, the content does not necessarily reflect the position or the policy of the Department of the Navy or the government, and no official endorsement should be inferred. The United States Government has at least a royalty-free, nonexclusive, and irrevocable license throughout the world for government purposes to publish, translate, reproduce, deliver, perform, and dispose of all or any of this work, and to authorize others so to do. International Standard Book Number 0-309-06977-7 Copies available from: Naval Studies Board National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Copyright 2000 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Review of ONR's Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles Program THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES National Academy of Sciences National Academy of Engineering Institute of Medicine National Research Council The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Review of ONR's Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles Program COMMITTEE FOR THE REVIEW OF ONR'S UNINHABITED COMBAT AIR VEHICLES PROGRAM FRANK A. HORRIGAN, Bedford, Massachusetts, Chair PHILIP S. ANSELMO, Northrop Grumman Corporation WILLARD R. BOLTON, Sandia National Laboratories THOMAS J. CASSIDY, JR., General Atomics Aeronautical Systems, Inc. ROBERT W. DAY, Raytheon Systems Company ALAN H. EPSTEIN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ROGER E. FISHER, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory RAY “M” FRANKLIN, Port Angeles, Washington NORMAN D. GEDDES, Applied Systems Intelligence, Inc. ROBERT H. GORMLEY, The Oceanus Company HARRY W. JENKINS, ITT Industries JAMES D. LANG, La Jolla, California JOSEPH B. REAGAN, Saratoga, California JOHN P. RETELLE, JR., Logicon Advanced Technology HOWARD E. SHROBE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN F. WALTER, Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University Staff CHARLES F. DRAPER, Study Director SIDNEY G. REED, Consultant JAMES G. WILSON, Consultant Navy/Marine Corps Liaison Representative ALLEN MOSHFEGH, Office of Naval Research

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Review of ONR's Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles Program NAVAL STUDIES BOARD VINCENT VITTO, Charles S. Draper Laboratory, Inc., Chair JOSEPH B. REAGAN, Saratoga, California, Vice Chair DAVID R. HEEBNER, McLean, Virginia, Past Chair ALBERT J. BACIOCCO, JR., The Baciocco Group, Inc. ARTHUR B. BAGGEROER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ALAN BERMAN, Applied Research Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University NORMAN E. BETAQUE, Logistics Management Institute JAMES P. BROOKS, Litton/Ingalls Shipbuilding, Inc. NORVAL L. BROOME, Mitre Corporation JOHN D. CHRISTIE, Logistics Management Institute RUTH A. DAVID, Analytic Services, Inc. PAUL K. DAVIS, RAND and the RAND Graduate School of Policy Studies SEYMOUR J. DEITCHMAN, Chevy Chase, Maryland, Special Advisor DANIEL E. HASTINGS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology FRANK A. HORRIGAN, Bedford, Massachusetts RICHARD J. IVANETICH, Institute for Defense Analyses MIRIAM E. JOHN, Sandia National Laboratories ANNETTE J. KRYGIEL, Great Falls, Virginia ROBERT B. OAKLEY, National Defense University HARRISON SHULL, Monterey, California JAMES M. SINNETT, The Boeing Company WILLIAM D. SMITH, Fayetteville, Pennsylvania PAUL K. VAN RIPER, Williamsburg, Virginia VERENA S. VOMASTIC, The Aerospace Corporation BRUCE WALD, Center for Naval Analyses MITZI M. WERTHEIM, Center for Naval Analyses Navy Liaison Representatives RADM RAYMOND C. SMITH, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 RADM PAUL G. GAFFNEY II, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N91 Marine Corps Liaison Representative LTGEN JOHN E. RHODES, USMC, Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command RONALD D. TAYLOR, Director CHARLES F. DRAPER, Senior Program Officer MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Assistant JAMES E. MACIEJEWSKI, Senior Project Assistant

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Review of ONR's Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles Program COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS PETER M. BANKS, Veridian ERIM International, Inc., Co-chair W. CARL LINEBERGER, University of Colorado, Co-chair WILLIAM F. BALLHAUS, JR., Lockheed Martin Corporation SHIRLEY CHIANG, University of California at Davis MARSHALL H. COHEN, California Institute of Technology RONALD G. DOUGLAS, Texas A&M University SAMUEL H. FULLER, Analog Devices, Inc. JERRY P. GOLLUB, Haverford College MICHAEL F. GOODCHILD, University of California at Santa Barbara MARTHA P. HAYNES, Cornell University WESLEY T. HUNTRESS, JR., Carnegie Institution CAROL M. JANTZEN, Westinghouse Savannah River Company PAUL G. KAMINSKI, Technovation, Inc. KENNETH H. KELLER, University of Minnesota JOHN R. KREICK, Sanders, a Lockheed Martin Company(retired) MARSHA I. LESTER, University of Pennsylvania DUSA M. McDUFF, State University of New York at Stony Brook JANET L. NORWOOD, Former Commissioner, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics M. ELISABETH PATÉ-CORNELL, Stanford University NICHOLAS P. SAMIOS, Brookhaven National Laboratory ROBERT J. SPINRAD, Xerox PARC (retired) MYRON F. UMAN, Acting Executive Director

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Review of ONR's Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles Program Preface Joint Vision 20101 addresses the need for achieving military dominance through the application of new operational concepts. For the Department of the Navy, future operational concepts will hinge on a continuance of forward yet unobtrusive presence and the capability to influence events ashore as required. This capability will be enabled by the development and insertion into the forces of new technologies for providing command, control, and surveillance; battlespace dominance; power projection; and force sustainment. For example, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have recently proven to be valuable operational platforms for providing tactical intelligence by surveillance of the battlefield. To support naval force objectives, the Office of Naval Research (ONR) has established a research program within the Strike Technology Division (Code 351) of the Naval Expeditionary Warfare Science and Technology Department aimed at expanding the operational capabilities of UAVs to include not only surveillance and reconnaissance, but strike and logistics missions as well. This new class of autonomous vehicles, known as uninhabited combat air vehicles (UCAVs), is foreseen as being intelligent, recoverable, and highly maneuverable in support of future naval operations. Although UCAVs are not seen as a replacement for manned aircraft, the technical vision for UCAVs suggests they could take advantage of emerging technologies in order to provide weaponry and logistics support at a fraction of the cost of current manned systems. Specifically, these emerging capabilities could include (1) autonomous multi-UCAVs and multisensors, as well as cooperative target cueing and automatic target recognition; (2) sea-based multimission vertical takeoff and landing/vertical short takeoff and landing concepts with a real-time, full-scale simulation environment; (3) secure communications and architecture for autonomous intelligent UCAVs; and (4) real-time autonomous mission planning, path planning, contingency planning, and situational awareness for networked UCAVs. At the request of the Office of Naval Research, the National Research Council established a committee, under the auspices of the Naval Studies Board, to assess the science and technology issues relating to the ONR program for UCAVs (see Appendix A for short biographies of committee members). Specifically, the review was to evaluate ONR's UCAV technology activities, including its vision documents and its science and technology roadmap (in areas of vehicle dynamics, communications, sensors, and autonomous agents) against criteria that would be selected by the committee, such as the relevance for meeting future naval priorities, the cost and time 1   Shalikashvili, GEN John M., USA. 1997. Joint Vision 2010. Joint Chiefs of Staff, The Pentagon, Washington, D.C.

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Review of ONR's Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles Program scale for its utilization, duplication of effort, and scientific and technical quality. Although the ONR program includes both basic (6.1) and applied (6.2) research efforts relating to UCAVs, the committee was asked to assess those activities under the 6.2 budget category (Appendix B gives the full terms of reference). A previous NRC committee reviewed the basic research activities.2 In preparing its report, the Committee for the Review of ONR's Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles Program met twice. The first meeting was held December 13-15, 1999, in Irvine, California; it was devoted mainly to briefings by the study sponsor (and the corresponding principal investigators) on the applied research (6.2) activities—including goals, vision, technical roadmaps, and other plans—of the ONR UCAV program. Additionally, representatives from the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency/U.S. Air Force UCAV program and the Program Executive Office for Cruise Missiles and UAVs (PEO (CU)) briefed the committee on other UAV/ UCAV efforts. The committee's second meeting, held January 18-19, 2000, in Washington, D.C., was spent preparing an initial draft report. Additionally, representatives from the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD), the Office of the Chief of Naval Operations (OPNAV), and the Naval Air Systems Command (NAVAIR) briefed the committee on related Department of Defense and Department of the Navy UAV/UCAV efforts; the committee believes that these briefings were necessary in order to establish the review criteria (i.e., the relevance for meeting future naval priorities, cost and time scale for utilization, duplication of effort, and scientific and technical quality) for assessing the science and technology issues related to the ONR 351 UCAV program. The resulting report represents the committee's consensus view on the issues posed in the charge. 2   Naval Studies Board, National Research Council. 1999. 1999 Assessment of the Office of Naval Research's Air and Surface Weapons Technology Program. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C.

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Review of ONR's Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles Program Acknowledgment of Reviewers This report has been reviewed by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council's (NRC's) Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the authors and the NRC in making the published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The contents of the review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. The committee wishes to thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: John M. Borky, Tamarac Technologies, Inc., Eugene E. Covert, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (emeritus), John N. Entzminger, Entzminger Associates, Edward A. Feigenbaum, Stanford University, Ivan A. Getting, The Aerospace Corporation (retired), VADM Richard H. Truly, USN (retired), National Renewable Energy Laboratory, and Peter R. Worch, Science Applications International Corporation (retired). Although the individuals listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, responsibility for the final content of this report rests solely with the authoring committee and the NRC.

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Review of ONR's Uninhabited Combat Air Vehicles Program Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1  1   STUDY OVERVIEW   6      Introduction,   6      Scope of and Approach to the Assessment,   7      Favorable Aspects of the ONR 351 Approach (6.2),   7      Areas of Concern,   8  2   ASSESSMENT OF THE ONR 351 UAV/UCAV PROGRAM   11      Introduction,   11      The ONR Vision,   13      Critical Technologies,   16      Proposed UAV/UCAV Demonstrations,   25      Summary Recommendations,   25  3   INTEGRATION WITH OTHER RELATED DEPARTMENT OF THE NAVY AND DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE EFFORTS   27      Introduction,   27      Program Issues,   27      Technology Issues,   32      General Concerns,   35     APPENDIXES       A Committee Biographies   39     B Terms of Reference   43     C Acronyms and Abbreviations   44

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