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APPENDIX D SOME DATA SOURCES ~ STUDIES DATA SOURCES Both aggregate and~ind~vidual data are required for a comprehensive study of the national needs for biomedical and behavioral research per- sonnel. For any supply/demand analysis undertaken, trends in under- graduate and graduate enrollments, baccalaureate and doctoral degrees awarded, predoctoral and postdoctoral levels of support, research and development spending, and salary scales must be considered. Much of this aggregate information has been collected by the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Office of Education (OE), the Department of Labor (DOL), and the National Research Council (NRC).1 For a micro-study of career patterns, longitudinal data on type of employer, work activity, field-switching, relative salaries, and publication and citation indices are important. These data are needed for biomedical and behavioral specialties as well as for broad fields if shortage and surplus estimates are to be made for disciplinary areas. Information on the careers of Ph.D. (or equivalent) recipients is contained in five files of data concerning the education and work experience of individuals maintained by the National Research Council. Some data on the careers of M.D. and other professional doctorate recipients are available from a file maintained by the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC). These six data sources are briefly described below. 1 Comprehensive Roster of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers (NRC) Contained in this file are records on all 1930-72 U.S. doctorate (Ph.D.orequivalent) recipients in science and engineering, 1930-72 U.S. doctorate recipients in other fields who were identified from the NSF National Register surveys (see below) as employed in science and engine peering, and recipients of 1930-72 foreign-earned doctorates who were similarly identified. This population includes approximately 272,200 individuals 10,400 with foreign-earned doctorates and 9,700 with nonscience-nonengineering doctorates. Biographic and degree information See the bibliography (Appendix E) for specific references. 73

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is available on the whole population. Detailed 1972 and 1973 employment data on 44,000 respondents to a sample survey accurately describe the current employment situation for Phil recipients. Survey data on 1974-75 employment activities should be available in December of this year. 2. Doctorate Records File (NRC) This file contains biographic and degree information on 471,000 individuals who earned U.S. doctorates (Ph.D. or equivalent) between 1920 and 1974. Information on sources of graduate support and employ- ment plans (after earning the doctorate) are also included in this file. 3. National Registers of Scientific and Technical Personnel (NSF) Employment data on 171,000 doctoral scientists working in the United States have been compiled from the 1960-70 surveys under the National Register of Scientific and Technical Personnel. Inconsistent coverage from year to year and from field to field has restricted the use of this file as a source of longitudinal information. However, an attempt to derive reliable population statistics, using the Doctorate Records File as a base, is now being made. When this effort is com- pleted and the file is combined with the Comprehensive File, detailed information should be available on the careers of Ph.D. scientists from 1960-75. 4. NIH File of Trainees and Fellows (NIH) This file includes biographic and detailed training program data on 94,000 individuals supported by NIH 1961-71 training grants and 1938-72 fellowships. Traininq records for 1972-73 funded trainees and 1973-74 _ funded fellows will be added shortly. This file has been collated with the above data sources so that training support can be considered in conjunction with biographic characteristics and career information. 5. Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Included in-this file are records On 1 ~ 180 ~ 000 individuals who have puD.~snea articles in world scientific literature during the period 1961-72 and records on 1,841,000 individuals who have been cited in this literature. These records have been collated with some of the data files above, adding a valuable outcome measure to other career pattern data. ~ ~ ~ ~ . ~ 74

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6. Medical Faculty Profile (AAMC) This file contains biographic and employment data on 23,000 recip- ients of the M.D. and other professional doctorates who were members of medical school faculties in 1975. Plans are now being undertaken to construct 1971-74 data in this file so that longitudinal studies relating to the employment of medical faculty members can be made Although the collation of the above files, on one hand, is useful in presenting a comprehensive picture of the career patterns of bio- medical and behavioral research personnel, it also raises some serious problems in taxonomy. Differences in field classification schemes used in the NRC, NSF, NIH, and AAMC files make it impossible to find a con- sistent definition of supply in the biomedical and behavioral fields especially in the clinical sciences. Differences in work-activity questions in the AAMC and NRC surveys raise some doubt about the compara- bility of the numbers of M.D.'s and Ph.D.'s who indicate that they are engaged in research. More detailed analyses of these data sources should result in a more consistent definition of the biomedical and behavioral research pool. While the coverage of the Ph.D. component of supply is reasonably complete, M.D. researchers not associated with medical schools cannot be satisfactorily and comprehensively identified at the present time. It is hoped that M.D.'s employed by the federal government and industry will be included in future A~MC surveys. The Ph.D. sample used in future NRC employment surveys will also have to be augmented especially in the behavioral fields in order to be able to report with confidence market trends in subfields. Reliable data on the demand for biomedical and behavioral research personnel are not available at the present time. A survey of a sample of employers of bioscience doctorate recipients is now being conducted by Westat, Inc. (for NIH). A survey covering the behavioral fields- and perhaps an augmentation of the biomedical sample- will also be necessary. Also, a computerized data file with the program data on individuals supported by ADAMHA and HRA must be generated and collated with the data sources mentioned above so that individuals supported by these agencies can be identified in career pattern analyses. Information on support from other sources, especially at the postdoctoral level, would also be useful, although no systematic means of collecting such data is apparent. 75

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STUDIES 1. Studies by Professional Societies Professional societies are a logical source for manpower studies. A few examples can be cited. A joint committee of the American'Thoracic' Society and the American College of Chest Physicians, for example, has completed a study of professional manpower in the field of pulmonary diseases for the period 1971-72. The findings include data on a full- time equivalence basis for physician faculty and trainees engaged in pulmonary research, the number of budgeted vacancies' and estimates of additional personnel needed to meet the requirements of medical school programs. The findings of that study have been compared with data for 1974-75 obtained by an ad hoc committee of the American Thor- acic Society to determine supply and demand for physicians and scientists involved in teaching and research related to pulmonary disease in Departments of Medicine and Pediatrics. A comprehensive data base on surgical manpower will soon become available with publication of a study sponsored ' by the American College of Surgeons and the American Surgical Association. Using 1945-1970 as a base period, the study will provide estimates of future supply and forecasts of utilization rates for,the various sectors of surgical manpower. Other studies, more cir- cumscribed in scope, have been undertaken in recent years under the aegis of the American Society of Hematology, the American Academy of Dermatology, and the Arthritis Foundation. A very recent study by the American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics describes the demographic characteristics and the employment of pharmacologists and highlights the role that federal support has played in training this manpower. , A 1971 report of the National Program for Dermatology concludes that the training grant has had a major influence,on the growth of research programs in dermatology and on the overall growth and develop- ment of dermatology units. 2. Staff Studies During the past three months several members of the Committee's staff have begun quantitative analyses related to supply/demand for biomedical and behavioral research personnel, using published data and data available from the sources described above. Included among these preliminary and exploratory analyses are a longitudinal study of several 76

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supply components in the research pool, an evaluation of the future demand for research personnel in academia, industry, and the federal government, and the development of an alternative approach for estima- ting the need for research personnel. Although none of these analyses has been completed, useful information has already been compiled. Per- tinent portions of this information have been incorporated into Chapter IV of this report. During the next year, further development from these analyses are expected to lead to a better understanding of the factors influencing the need for biomedical and behavioral research personnel and will enable the Committee to provide more specific recommendations concerning future levels of training. 3. Econometric Model During the past two months an attempt has been made under the present study by Richard Freeman, a Harvard economist serving as a consultant to the Committee, to develop a "market model" for the biological sciences. Unlike standard requirement projections, market models take into consideration the adaptation of the science manpower system to changing circumstances, including changes in research and development, stipends, and other factors. Freeman has in the past con- structed such models for the physical sciences and engineering. A preliminary model for the biological sciences has been developed by Freeman and his coworkers at Harvard from published aggregate data on educational and career decisions of individuals and on demand factors such as the cost of employment, relative salaries, and the market value of the "final product". Tentative findings indicate that the market for biological scientists, unlike the market for other scientists, did not collapse in the last five veers. Relative salaries, numbers employed in the field, ~ and D funding, and private spending by drug and medicine Firms all seem to be increasing in the biosciences. On the supply side, enrollments and numbers of degree recipients have been increasing, in contrast to significant decreases in the physical sciences. As for market conditions in the late 1970's/early 1980's, this prelim- inary analysis suggests the possibility of a significant oversupply of manpower in the bioscience area Particularly if the recent growth in graduate enrollments continues. Much work remains before the factors influencing the bioscience market are fully understood. Data from the files available to the National Research Council (described above) have not yet been used for this preliminary model. These data will provide valuable information about the market conditions in bioscience specialties and about the mobility of individuals in these specialties. _ 77 l

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4. Supply Studies During the past few months, the Committee and staff have made a first attempt to identify longitudinal trends in components of the bio- medical and behavioral research pool. Since the new doctorate-recipients have been, by far, the largest component of supply entries in recent, years, particular attention is being paid to trends in enrollment and degree production. Attention is also being given to the field mobility of biomedical and behavioral scientists (i.e., the ability of these scientists to move both to other specialties within their broad field and to other science fields). Factors that enhance or inhibit mobility must be analyzed in detail. There is some indication that scientists have in the past been able to transfer to other fields and other employ- ment sectors in response to market demand. Whether biomedical and behavioral scientists will be mobile enough to meet future demands and whether extensive training will be necessary are important issues to be investigated. The value of the postdoctoral appointment as a tool for retraining is a related issue to be considered. In order to project the size of the biomedical and behavioral research pool, it is necessary, of course, to analyze trends in the proportion of the supply defined above who are engaged in research. The length of the research career, the subsequent employment, and other factors related to career patterns must be investigated. All of the above analyses depend on the availability of reliable longitudinal data. It is hoped that data from the 1960-70 National Register surveys, weighted by appropriate statistics, can be used in conjunction with 1972-75 data from the Surveys of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers to examine 15-year trends in the Ph.D. supply. For the M.D. supply, only 1971-75 data from the AAMC Faculty Profile have been collected so far. 6. Demand Studies Estimating the future demand for biomedical and behavioral scien- tists is a very difficult matter that has just begun to be explored by the Committee. The approach underlying the recent NSF projections divides the demand market into three components: academia, the non- academic research and development sector, and the other-employment sector. Projections of the demand for biomedical and behavioral scien- tists in academia can be made with some confidence by examining trends in enrollments, faculty attrition, and enrichment (as Allan Cartter has has done3~. Trends in the growth of R and D as a percentage of-GNP . 2National Science Foundation, Projections of Science and Engineering Doctorate Supply and Utilization, 1980 and 1985, February 1975. Science, 3Allan M. Cartter, "Scientific Manpower vol. 172, April 9, 1971. 78 1970-1985,"

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(or of other indices) can be used-to estimate future demand in the non- academic R and D sector. However, abrupt changes in R And D levels in the recent past suggest that such estimates are not reliable. Very little is known about the demand for biomedical and behavioral scientists in the third sector (nonacad-~'c/non-R and D). Studies of the career patterns of individuals who have entered this sector in the past should be under- taken to determine the requirements and capacity of the sector. In a very preliminary and exploratory effort Robert Weatherall, Director of Placement at MIT and a consultant to the Committee, has surveyed a few representatives of industry and professional societies about their perceptions of the future labor market for biomedical and behavioral scientists. The usefulness of demand surveys made in the past is very much open to question, however, and the Committee intends to proceed cautiously in this part of its task. 6. Alternative Approaches Other approaches to the determination of national need for bio- medical and behavioral research personnel are being investigated. One such approach uses the total investment required to reduce national expenditures for disease and disability in order to estimate the need for biomedical and behavioral research. The level of research expendi- tures then determines the number of personnel required. The basic assumption underlying this approach is that biomedical and behavioral research is the primary long-term process by which disease and dis- ability are reduced and that a prudent policy of investment in research in these areas will pay off within a given time. The data required for this study include total annual direct expenditures for illness, the annual rates of biomedical/behavioral training and research expenditures, the average annual research cost per researcher, and the size of the current manpower pool. The manpower pool size can be estimated from data in NRC and AAMC files mentioned earlier; training and research expenditures are available from the federal agencies. The _ Social Security Administration is now updating its 1963 estimates of the direct cost of certain disease categories. An assumption must be made about the pay-off rate of the research investment. Alternative estimates of the need for biomedical and behavioral research personnel by using alternative assumptions about this rate. 79 can be made