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APPENDIX D
SOME DATA SOURCES ~ STUDIES
DATA SOURCES
Both aggregate and~ind~vidual data are required for a comprehensive
study of the national needs for biomedical and behavioral research per-
sonnel. For any supply/demand analysis undertaken, trends in under-
graduate and graduate enrollments, baccalaureate and doctoral degrees
awarded, predoctoral and postdoctoral levels of support, research and
development spending, and salary scales must be considered. Much of
this aggregate information has been collected by the National Institutes
of Health (NIH), the National Science Foundation (NSF), the Office of
Education (OE), the Department of Labor (DOL), and the National Research
Council (NRC).1 For a micro-study of career patterns, longitudinal data
on type of employer, work activity, field-switching, relative salaries,
and publication and citation indices are important. These data are
needed for biomedical and behavioral specialties as well as for broad
fields if shortage and surplus estimates are to be made for disciplinary
areas. Information on the careers of Ph.D.
(or equivalent) recipients
is contained in five files of data concerning the education and work
experience of individuals maintained by the National Research Council.
Some data on the careers of M.D. and other professional doctorate
recipients are available from a file maintained by the Association of
American Medical Colleges (AAMC). These six data sources are briefly
described below.
1 Comprehensive Roster of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers (NRC)
Contained in this file are records on all 1930-72 U.S. doctorate
(Ph.D.orequivalent) recipients in science and engineering, 1930-72 U.S.
doctorate recipients in other fields who were identified from the NSF
National Register surveys (see below) as employed in science and engine
peering, and recipients of 1930-72 foreign-earned doctorates who were
similarly identified. This population includes approximately 272,200
individuals 10,400 with foreign-earned doctorates and 9,700 with
nonscience-nonengineering doctorates. Biographic and degree information
See the bibliography (Appendix E) for specific references.
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is available on the whole population. Detailed 1972 and 1973 employment
data on 44,000 respondents to a sample survey accurately describe the
current employment situation for Phil recipients. Survey data on 1974-75
employment activities should be available in December of this year.
2. Doctorate Records File (NRC)
This file contains biographic and degree information on 471,000
individuals who earned U.S. doctorates (Ph.D. or equivalent) between
1920 and 1974. Information on sources of graduate support and employ-
ment plans (after earning the doctorate) are also included in this file.
3. National Registers of Scientific and Technical Personnel (NSF)
Employment data on 171,000 doctoral scientists working in the
United States have been compiled from the 1960-70 surveys under the
National Register of Scientific and Technical Personnel. Inconsistent
coverage from year to year and from field to field has restricted the
use of this file as a source of longitudinal information. However, an
attempt to derive reliable population statistics, using the Doctorate
Records File as a base, is now being made. When this effort is com-
pleted and the file is combined with the Comprehensive File, detailed
information should be available on the careers of Ph.D. scientists from
1960-75.
4. NIH File of Trainees and Fellows (NIH)
This file includes biographic and detailed training program data on
94,000 individuals supported by NIH 1961-71 training grants and 1938-72
fellowships. Traininq records for 1972-73 funded trainees and 1973-74
_
funded fellows will be added shortly. This file has been collated with
the above data sources so that training support can be considered in
conjunction with biographic characteristics and career information.
5. Institute for Scientific Information (ISI)
Included in-this file are records On 1 ~ 180 ~ 000 individuals who have
puD.~snea articles in world scientific literature during the period
1961-72 and records on 1,841,000 individuals who have been cited in
this literature. These records have been collated with some of the
data files above, adding a valuable outcome measure to other career
pattern data.
~ ~ · ~ ~ . · ~
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6. Medical Faculty Profile (AAMC)
This file contains biographic and employment data on 23,000 recip-
ients of the M.D. and other professional doctorates who were members of
medical school faculties in 1975. Plans are now being undertaken to
construct 1971-74 data in this file so that longitudinal studies relating
to the employment of medical faculty members can be made
Although the collation of the above files, on one hand, is useful
in presenting a comprehensive picture of the career patterns of bio-
medical and behavioral research personnel, it also raises some serious
problems in taxonomy. Differences in field classification schemes used
in the NRC, NSF, NIH, and AAMC files make it impossible to find a con-
sistent definition of supply in the biomedical and behavioral fields
especially in the clinical sciences. Differences in work-activity
questions in the AAMC and NRC surveys raise some doubt about the compara-
bility of the numbers of M.D.'s and Ph.D.'s who indicate that they are
engaged in research.
More detailed analyses of these data sources should
result in a more consistent definition of the biomedical and behavioral
research pool.
While the coverage of the Ph.D. component of supply is reasonably
complete, M.D. researchers not associated with medical schools cannot
be satisfactorily and comprehensively identified at the present time.
It is hoped that M.D.'s employed by the federal government and industry
will be included in future A~MC surveys. The Ph.D. sample used in future
NRC employment surveys will also have to be augmented especially in the
behavioral fields in order to be able to report with confidence market
trends in subfields.
Reliable data on the demand for biomedical and behavioral research
personnel are not available at the present time. A survey of a sample
of employers of bioscience doctorate recipients is now being conducted
by Westat, Inc. (for NIH). A survey covering the behavioral fields-
and perhaps an augmentation of the biomedical sample- will also be
necessary. Also, a computerized data file with the program data on
individuals supported by ADAMHA and HRA must be generated and collated
with the data sources mentioned above so that individuals supported by
these agencies can be identified in career pattern analyses. Information
on support from other sources, especially at the postdoctoral level,
would also be useful, although no systematic means of collecting such
data is apparent.
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STUDIES
1. Studies by Professional Societies
Professional societies are a logical source for manpower studies.
A few examples can be cited. A joint committee of the American'Thoracic'
Society and the American College of Chest Physicians, for example, has
completed a study of professional manpower in the field of pulmonary
diseases for the period 1971-72. The findings include data on a full-
time equivalence basis for physician faculty and trainees engaged in
pulmonary research, the number of budgeted vacancies' and estimates
of additional personnel needed to meet the requirements of medical
school programs. The findings of that study have been compared with
data for 1974-75 obtained by an ad hoc committee of the American Thor-
acic Society to determine supply and demand for physicians and scientists
involved in teaching and research related to pulmonary disease in
Departments of Medicine and Pediatrics. A comprehensive data base on
surgical manpower will soon become available with publication of a
study sponsored ' by the American College of Surgeons and the American
Surgical Association. Using 1945-1970 as a base period, the study will
provide estimates of future supply and forecasts of utilization rates
for,the various sectors of surgical manpower. Other studies, more cir-
cumscribed in scope, have been undertaken in recent years under the
aegis of the American Society of Hematology, the American Academy of
Dermatology, and the Arthritis Foundation.
A very recent study by the American Society for Pharmacology and
Experimental Therapeutics describes the demographic characteristics and
the employment of pharmacologists and highlights the role that federal
support has played in training this manpower. ,
A 1971 report of the National Program for Dermatology concludes
that the training grant has had a major influence,on the growth of
research programs in dermatology and on the overall growth and develop-
ment of dermatology units.
2. Staff Studies
During the past three months several members of the Committee's
staff have begun quantitative analyses related to supply/demand for
biomedical and behavioral research personnel, using published data and
data available from the sources described above. Included among these
preliminary and exploratory analyses are a longitudinal study of several
76
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supply components in the research pool, an evaluation of the future
demand for research personnel in academia, industry, and the federal
government, and the development of an alternative approach for estima-
ting the need for research personnel. Although none of these analyses
has been completed, useful information has already been compiled. Per-
tinent portions of this information have been incorporated into Chapter IV
of this report. During the next year, further development from these
analyses are expected to lead to a better understanding of the factors
influencing the need for biomedical and behavioral research personnel
and will enable the Committee to provide more specific recommendations
concerning future levels of training.
3. Econometric Model
During the past two months an attempt has been made under the
present study by Richard Freeman, a Harvard economist serving as a
consultant to the Committee, to develop a "market model" for the
biological sciences. Unlike standard requirement projections, market
models take into consideration the adaptation of the science manpower
system to changing circumstances, including changes in research and
development, stipends, and other factors. Freeman has in the past con-
structed such models for the physical sciences and engineering. A
preliminary model for the biological sciences has been developed by
Freeman and his coworkers at Harvard from published aggregate data on
educational and career decisions of individuals and on demand factors
such as the cost of employment, relative salaries, and the market value
of the "final product". Tentative findings indicate that the market
for biological scientists, unlike the market for other scientists, did
not collapse in the last five veers.
Relative salaries, numbers
employed in the field, ~ and D funding, and private spending by drug and
medicine Firms all seem to be increasing in the biosciences. On the
supply side, enrollments and numbers of degree recipients have been
increasing, in contrast to significant decreases in the physical sciences.
As for market conditions in the late 1970's/early 1980's, this prelim-
inary analysis suggests the possibility of a significant oversupply of
manpower in the bioscience area Particularly if the recent growth in
graduate enrollments continues.
Much work remains before the factors influencing the bioscience
market are fully understood. Data from the files available to the
National Research Council (described above) have not yet been used for
this preliminary model. These data will provide valuable information
about the market conditions in bioscience specialties and about the
mobility of individuals in these specialties.
_
·
77
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4. Supply Studies
During the past few months, the Committee and staff have made a
first attempt to identify longitudinal trends in components of the bio-
medical and behavioral research pool. Since the new doctorate-recipients
have been, by far, the largest component of supply entries in recent,
years, particular attention is being paid to trends in enrollment and
degree production. Attention is also being given to the field mobility
of biomedical and behavioral scientists (i.e., the ability of these
scientists to move both to other specialties within their broad field
and to other science fields). Factors that enhance or inhibit mobility
must be analyzed in detail. There is some indication that scientists
have in the past been able to transfer to other fields and other employ-
ment sectors in response to market demand. Whether biomedical and
behavioral scientists will be mobile enough to meet future demands and
whether extensive training will be necessary are important issues to be
investigated. The value of the postdoctoral appointment as a tool for
retraining is a related issue to be considered.
In order to project the size of the biomedical and behavioral
research pool, it is necessary, of course, to analyze trends in the
proportion of the supply defined above who are engaged in research.
The length of the research career, the subsequent employment, and other
factors related to career patterns must be investigated. All of the
above analyses depend on the availability of reliable longitudinal data.
It is hoped that data from the 1960-70 National Register surveys,
weighted by appropriate statistics, can be used in conjunction with
1972-75 data from the Surveys of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers to
examine 15-year trends in the Ph.D. supply. For the M.D. supply, only
1971-75 data from the AAMC Faculty Profile have been collected so far.
6. Demand Studies
Estimating the future demand for biomedical and behavioral scien-
tists is a very difficult matter that has just begun to be explored by
the Committee. The approach underlying the recent NSF projections
divides the demand market into three components: academia, the non-
academic research and development sector, and the other-employment
sector. Projections of the demand for biomedical and behavioral scien-
tists in academia can be made with some confidence by examining trends
in enrollments, faculty attrition, and enrichment (as Allan Cartter has
has done3~. Trends in the growth of R and D as a percentage of-GNP
.
2National Science Foundation, Projections of Science and Engineering
Doctorate Supply and Utilization, 1980 and 1985, February 1975.
Science,
3Allan M. Cartter, "Scientific Manpower
vol. 172, April 9, 1971.
78
1970-1985,"
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(or of other indices) can be used-to estimate future demand in the non-
academic R and D sector. However, abrupt changes in R And D levels in the
recent past suggest that such estimates are not reliable. Very little
is known about the demand for biomedical and behavioral scientists in
the third sector (nonacad-~'c/non-R and D). Studies of the career patterns
of individuals who have entered this sector in the past should be under-
taken to determine the requirements and capacity of the sector.
In a very preliminary and exploratory effort Robert Weatherall,
Director of Placement at MIT and a consultant to the Committee, has
surveyed a few representatives of industry and professional societies
about their perceptions of the future labor market for biomedical and
behavioral scientists. The usefulness of demand surveys made in the
past is very much open to question, however, and the Committee intends
to proceed cautiously in this part of its task.
6. Alternative Approaches
Other approaches to the determination of national need for bio-
medical and behavioral research personnel are being investigated. One
such approach uses the total investment required to reduce national
expenditures for disease and disability in order to estimate the need
for biomedical and behavioral research. The level of research expendi-
tures then determines the number of personnel required. The basic
assumption underlying this approach is that biomedical and behavioral
research is the primary long-term process by which disease and dis-
ability are reduced and that a prudent policy of investment in research
in these areas will pay off within a given time.
The data required for
this study include total annual direct expenditures for illness, the
annual rates of biomedical/behavioral training and research expenditures,
the average annual research cost per researcher, and the size of the
current manpower pool. The manpower pool size can be estimated from
data in NRC and AAMC files mentioned earlier; training and research
expenditures are available from the federal agencies. The
_ Social
Security Administration is now updating its 1963 estimates of the direct
cost of certain disease categories. An assumption must be made about
the pay-off rate of the research investment. Alternative estimates of
the need for biomedical and behavioral research personnel
by using alternative assumptions about this rate.
79
can be made
Representative terms from entire chapter:
research pool
