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advanced predoctoral levels; (2) suggestions for curriculum change to
meet new needs; and (3) most importantly, the award of postdoctoral
fellowships and traineeships to facilitate field switching and to smooth
out market fluctuations.
The two types of recommendations would be transmitted in annual reports to
the Secretary (and to the academic community).
V. OBJECTIVES
The major foci of a Continuing study of national heeds w;11 be aggregate num'
hers, estimates by f~elds---and, where possible, subtields---stability, flexibil-
ity, and excellence. While closely interrelated, study approaches along these
dimensions will vary, as will the time frame for their accomplishment. In view of
the time constraints set by law, it is therefore necessary to distinguish between
activities to be undertaken in an initial period extending from March 1, 1975, to
June 30, 1975, and those to be addressed over the longer term.
A e Initial Objectives
-
The immediate need is for aggregate projections for the bromedical/
behavioral sciences and for estimates by major field, leading to recommenda-
tnons of levels of training support.
Aggregate projections. the comtn;ttee belie ~ it feasible to pro~o'ect de-
mand for biomedical and behavioral research personnel, based on suitable as-
sumptions concerning levels of research support, by allowing the analysis to
be directed by demographic factors and by expert judgments concerning the
emergence of new areas of knowledge and technology. In addition, it seems
feasible in the initial period to develop econometric models of supply and
demand in these fields, using national time-series data for the biomedical
and behavioral sciences in the aggregate, and to test such models for their
applicability. In particular, one of these models would involve the use of
relative-salary data. Models of this type have been used with some degree
of success to provide estimates for physics, engineering, and law. For owing
the strategy of previous scientific manpower model-building developed by
Freeman and others, the Committee would seek to use available data on de-
grees, salaries, R&D expenditures, enrollment, etc., to forecast supply and
demand contingent upon exogeneous policy variables.
It will be essential in making these projections to take into account
changing opportunities and demand for women end members of minority groups
within the Nationts biomedical/behavioral research programs.
Field projections. Since adequate studies exist on the numbers of doc-
toral degrees awarded by field each year, short-term projections can be at-
tempted during the initial period of continuing study. The feasibility of
making forecasts by field, as suggested under III-A above, has limitations.
The narrower the fields covered, the greater will be the problem of substi-
tutability. Another way of stating the problem is that the number of those
with first training in a given field is an inadequate measure of the supply
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of persons capable of working in that field. Moreover, the further into the
future that forecasts are made, the greater the barriers to measuring supply
in narrowly defined fields.
The margin of error may be minimized through projecting by broad fields
in contrast to aggregating suLfields. Broad-field projections can be supple-
mented by judgments of expert panels to delineate rapidly growing fields and
those showing a more modest or relatively slow growth or decline. Although
not currently available, models analogous to those referred to above can be
developed relatively early for selected fields and suLfields and to a limited
degree could be made to reflect the extent to which workers could shift among
fields. This analysis would make use of field-switching data developed by the
National Research Council and other organizations.
Levels of training support. Based on the foregoing projections and exam-
~nation of current trends in supply---including the output of other training
efforts---recommendations would be made for the levels of NIH/ADAMHA training
programs in FY 1976. As in the case of the projections of demand, these would
be made by broad field.
B. Longer-term Objectives
Special importance is attached to improvement of the data base and contin-
ued refinement of methodology. Over the next several years, the full poten-
tial of the plan diagrammed in Figure 1 seems likely to be realized and should
provide the basis needed for increasingly detailed recommendations by the Com-
mittee. me usefulness of current studies, such as the NRC-maintained Roster
of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers, could be significantly enhanced for pur-
poses of the continuing study. A suitable enlargement of the survey sample
size would help to ensure representativeness of employment data for a greater
variety of subtields in the biomedical/behavioral sciences. With respect to
methodology, a detailed analysis can be made of the specific features of the
biomedical/behavioral manpower market and second-round model-building can be
designed to incorporate these features. Studies of manpower flow in academic
medicine need to be made. It would also be desirable to conduct a study com-
paring the number of the Ph.D.'s awarded as a percentage of the number of bac-
calaureate degrees in prior years to determine the effect of support programs.
Other steps would involve bringing to bear on supply/demand problems the exper-
tise of persons in the market facades c deans, department chairmen, students,
and research directors). The continuing study would involve also a more care-
ful analysis of the characteristics of different sectors of the market and
modes of adjustment to changing market and support conditions than has been
possible in the past. me use of non-salary adjustment mechanisms, such as
postdoctoral fellowships, could be taken into account in the economic modeling.
VI. PROJECT ORGANIZATION
me continuing study would be carried out within the framework outlined in Fig-
ure 1 under a committee and panel structure within the National Research Council's
Commission on Human Resources. Figure 2 illustrates a possible organizational plan.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
initial period
