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~ l 11 of persons capable of working in that field. Moreover, the further into the future that forecasts are made, the greater the barriers to measuring supply in narrowly defined fields. The margin of error may be minimized through projecting by broad fields in contrast to aggregating suLfields. Broad-field projections can be supple- mented by judgments of expert panels to delineate rapidly growing fields and those showing a more modest or relatively slow growth or decline. Although not currently available, models analogous to those referred to above can be developed relatively early for selected fields and suLfields and to a limited degree could be made to reflect the extent to which workers could shift among fields. This analysis would make use of field-switching data developed by the National Research Council and other organizations. Levels of training support. Based on the foregoing projections and exam- ~nation of current trends in supply---including the output of other training efforts---recommendations would be made for the levels of NIH/ADAMHA training programs in FY 1976. As in the case of the projections of demand, these would be made by broad field. B. Longer-term Objectives Special importance is attached to improvement of the data base and contin- ued refinement of methodology. Over the next several years, the full poten- tial of the plan diagrammed in Figure 1 seems likely to be realized and should provide the basis needed for increasingly detailed recommendations by the Com- mittee. me usefulness of current studies, such as the NRC-maintained Roster of Doctoral Scientists and Engineers, could be significantly enhanced for pur- poses of the continuing study. A suitable enlargement of the survey sample size would help to ensure representativeness of employment data for a greater variety of subtields in the biomedical/behavioral sciences. With respect to methodology, a detailed analysis can be made of the specific features of the biomedical/behavioral manpower market and second-round model-building can be designed to incorporate these features. Studies of manpower flow in academic medicine need to be made. It would also be desirable to conduct a study com- paring the number of the Ph.D.'s awarded as a percentage of the number of bac- calaureate degrees in prior years to determine the effect of support programs. Other steps would involve bringing to bear on supply/demand problems the exper- tise of persons in the market facades c deans, department chairmen, students, and research directors). The continuing study would involve also a more care- ful analysis of the characteristics of different sectors of the market and modes of adjustment to changing market and support conditions than has been possible in the past. me use of non-salary adjustment mechanisms, such as postdoctoral fellowships, could be taken into account in the economic modeling. VI. PROJECT ORGANIZATION me continuing study would be carried out within the framework outlined in Fig- ure 1 under a committee and panel structure within the National Research Council's Commission on Human Resources. Figure 2 illustrates a possible organizational plan.
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- 13 - The NRC would carry the sole responsibility for analysis of program data, support- ing studies of several kinds, impact studies, "needs statements", comparisons with a variety of test data, and recommendations. Under certain circumstances outside organizations may be engaged to perform selected tasks. The results would be com- municated to the Secretary in a series of annual reports, to be transmitted to the Congress. The Committee believes that the activities for which NRC has sole and shared responsibility could be carried out with an annual budget initially of about $1 mil- lion (Table 1). The anticipated number of professional staff members required would be 12, and a supporting staff of 15 members would also be needed. me Committee would meet monthly at the start, and the panels at quarterly intervals TABLE 1. Estimate of Initial Annual Costs _ Personal Services Fringe Benefits Consultants Committee & Panel Travel Consultant Travel Staff Travel Communications & Shipping Materials & Services Commissioned Studies Data Processing Indirect Costs $435,000 56,600 12,500 66,ooo 4, 000 10,000 7,200 7,200 100,000 36,ooo 264,400 Total $998,900 Maintenance of administrative records of training awards would be the respon- sibility of NIH/ADAMHA. Extramural performers operating under NIH/ADAMEA or orga- nizations conducting commissioned studies for the NRC would address other needs for data and analysis. VII. RECOMMENDATIONS A. The Committee recommends that the National Academy of Sciences accept the invitation of the Secretary to conduct the continuing study mandated by Title I of the National Research Act. The recommendation is based on the belief: (1) that within the methodologic limitations outlined in this re- port a productive start can be made during the current fiscal year toward meeting the requirements specified in the law; to N + be expected in ~= ~ I-- 1 ~ hi) that improvements can =~4 Logy -GO ga-G~er and utilize needed information as experi- ence is gained over the next several years; and (3) that the National Research Council through the experience of its Commission or Human Resources and its ability to call upon the skills of the scientific community is the most appropriate agency to conduct the continuing study. The recommenda- tion further assumes that sufficient agreement can be reached on the con- ditions for the study as outlined below
