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2 Following discussions with representatives of the Assembly of Behavioral and Social Sciences, the Assembly of Life Sciences, and the Institute of Medicine, a Committee on a Feasibility Study of National Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel (Appendix A) was appointed to supervise conduct of the feasibil- ity study. To advise the Committee, panels were established for the following five disciplinary areas into which were grouped the various fields of research training support by NIH and ADAMHA: Basic Medical Sciences, Pasic and Applied Biology, Behavioral Sciences, Clinical Sciences, and Health Services Research and Evaluation (Appendix B). In addition, three panels concerned with methodology were set up under the following titles: Data and Analyses, Supporting Studies, and Impacts of Training (Appendix B). Administrative support for committee and panel functions has been provided by staff of the Commission with the assistance of a consultant who was available on essentially a fuLl-time basis. To prepare the ground for com- mittee operations, discussions were held with staff of the cognizant Congressional Committees, professional and education associations, Sections of the National Acad- emy of Sciences, and N~H/ADAMHA representatives. Liaison officers designated by NIH/ADAMHA provided a substantial body of program data, as well as interpretation of policies and procedures of the two agencies. Completion of the report was targeted for December 3l, 1974. In light of the complexity of the overall task, however, the request for support of the feasibility project anticipated a possible need for extension of time to February 28, 1975, with the feasibility report itself to be completed in early February. Consideration of the report by the Governing Board of the National Research Council would then lead to a decision concerning acceptance of the request to conduct a continuing study. II. EARLIER EFFORTS TO ESTIMATE NATIONAL NEEDS Various Federal agencies have attempted to forecast the goodness of fit between supply and demand, to project supply and/or demand, and to estimate the personnel requirements for subject fields in broad and fine detail. The Bureau of Labor Sta- tistics has projected requirements from 1968 to 1980 for doctoral scientists and engineers in private industry, based on a questionnaire study of major employers (1). It also has made projections of long-term trends in industrial and occupational growth based on a seven-step projection model which incorporates factors affecting the whole economy. The National Science Foundation has completed two studies---and has a third in preparation---on the projected relationship between supply and utilization of sci- ence and engineering doctorates, based upon supply trends for six preceding years and explicit assumptions concerning rates of increase in the Gross National Product, funds to be expended on research and development, and employment requirements for academic and nonacademic positions (2~. In terms of direct relevance to the present area of inquiry, several publica- tions of the National Institutes of Health merit special attention. Two reports,is- sued in 1963 and 1968 respectively, used an "updated" benchmark approach (3,4). A base-year employment benchmark was established separately for government, industry, and non-profit institutions' classified by level of training. Annual projections of undergraduate and graduate enrollment and of M.D. candidate enrollment were used to extend the benchmark figures, with stated assumptions as to degree completion rates, educational progression rates, and age-cohort survival rates.
3 In January, 1970, the National Institutes of Health published projections for the period 1972-1980 to show trainee populations required to sustain several as- sumed alternate growth rates of research funding, with provision for deaths, retire- ments, and shifts to other activities (5~. The essential contribution of this model was its use of separate estimates for research, teaching, service, administration, and other functions. A more sophisticated version of this model, including esti- mates of prospective demand for biomedical scientists through FY 1983, was released in 1972 (6~. Numerous studies in the private sector have also been addressed to these prob- lems. Cariter has made the most detailed analysis of expected faculty needs for holders of the Ph.D. He has projected, by five-year intervals, the number of doc- tor's degrees to be awarded, the number of new faculty members who should hold that degree to match the increasing enroL ment and to maintain the current percentage of doctorate holders in the Nation's faculty, and the percentage of new doctorates of each five-year period who would be required for such faculty appointments (7~. Freeman has made projections for various fields with a market model that takes into account the behavioral characteristics of performers in the labor market (83. The status of such labor market forecasts for doctorates is discussed in a report of the National Board on Graduate Education (9~. In addition, Freeman and Breneman have examined current forecasting techniques against a background of past forecast- ing failures, and have described a methodology for making "response adjusted" pro- jections, based on student career decisions, experienced personnel supply behavior, employer decisions, and salary determinations (10~. The National Planning Associa- t~on has undertaken a pilot study to assess the potential for anticipating the sci- entific manpower requirements likely to be generated by expenditures in pursuit of national goals in the private economy in the next five-ten years. A special SPA case study concerns requirements in the 1980 Is for scientists and engineers for the abatement of air, water, and solid waste pollution (11~. Also of interest in this connection is a demand survey for industry which was sponsored in 1972 by the Indus- trial Research Institute (12~. A careful review of these diverse efforts leads to several observations and conclusions: 1. Projections must be distinguished from predictions. Derived from models based on trends and awareness of current developments, projections offer a range of possible future events based on explicit assumptions and no significant break in trends. It is important that no false sense of pre- cision be attributed to projected numbers in view of the limitation of the data and methodologies, the complexity of manpower utilization, and the unpredictability of future events. 2. Projedt~dns~ of forecasts of supply and demand for highly trained willpower have focused on numbers and given relatively little attention to quality ---quality of instruction, research, or of the Ph.D. ' s themselves . Assay- ing quality is a difficult problem. There are at present only rough meth- ods for taking this attribute into account, such as assuming that the ; quality of institutions or departments can be measured, and that on the whole institutional quality is related to the quality of those who are awarded degrees.
4 3' The results of attempts to produce supply and demand forecasts by field and discipline have been spotty. Sizable differences between projected estimates and actuality are not uncommon. Although relatively sophisti- cased analyses have been made by some professional associations---in physics, in surgery, and in pharmacology and experimental therapeutics, for example---many lack the resources to undertake these activities. Fur- ther studies of forecasting for specific fields are clearly needed to throw light on the conceptual, methodological, and practical problems of forecasting by discipline. 4. One of the central problems of projections is the difficulty of formulat- ing generally acceptable concepts of underemployment. Specifically, there is a need to determine the criteria by which underemployment is to be de- fined, and to attach quantities to the criteria to permit enumeration of the underemployed. A number of criteria could be used, such as differen- tial income and extent of utilization of maximum skills. In addition to methodologic complexity and data shortcomings that plague the projector, there is the well-known fact that published projections are viewed as predictions by the public and the market moves to defeat the predictions. Employers and prospective employees note where "short- ages" or "overages" are forecast and shape their strategies accordingly. 6. A significant development in projecting the supply of, and demand for' high-level manpower has been the increasing attention paid to market forces and the behavior of individuals and institutions in the market. Extension of this work has a high potential for the improvement and re- finement of projections. III. PRINCIPLES A number of general principles have emerged from the Committee's discussions and have been found helpful in guiding its recommendations. Assessment of the Nation's needs for biomedical and behavioral research personnel is a necessary task in view of the large national interest in this area and the need to use national resources wisely. It is also a difficult task that must be approached with a clear recognition of the difficulties. The Committee and its panels believe, however, that the present methodology and data base are adequate for developing a strategy and for making a start toward forecasting aggregate manpower requirements for biomedical/behavioral research. Even though use of particular assumptions may introduce an appre- ciable margin of error at the outset, available methodology and the data base are adequate to indicate the direction of change. In contrast to the problem of forecasting aggregate manpower in large fields, estimating needs by fine fields is exceedingly difficult. Boundaries between disciplines have become less distinct with the increase in emphasis
