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6 Flexibility in this context has implications which the Committee believes will merit consideration in a continuing study. A key issue relates to the capability of institutions to adjust their resources---faculty, students, and facilities---to a changing manpower outlook, as in the case of fields approach- ing a point of saturation. D. Concern for Excellence Lee new law assigns tootle continuing study the task of assessing NIH/ ADAMHA training programs---a further indication of the concern for excellence. The study will be elected to evaluate the impact of training programs on the total set enter fic environment of institute ons . :Basic approaches to implementing this responsibility will be to identify areas of program success for retrospec- tive examination of effects, such as encouragement of programs that cut across traditional departmental lines, stimulation of interaction of faculty, trainees, and persons from other deportments and institutions; and increase in the qual- ity of advanced courses . Other questions warrant investigation. Is quali ty more effectively fostered by concentration on a limited number of programs than by providing broad support for training? Is it possible without NIH/ADAMHA sup- port to build the types of curricula that permit quality training in special fields? How effective have these programs been in attracting superior person- nel into areas lacking a tradition of research? E . Shared Re coons fib ilitv Though it should be a truism, the point merits repetition that NIH/ADA~A are not---and should not be---responsible for the support of all biomedical and behavioral research training. That responsibility is shared with other elements of American society---the states, industry, the foundations, private donors, and the universities themselves---which will continue to rule their individual contributions. NIH/ADAMHA are indeed responsible, as affirmed by the new law, for providing sufficient support to ensure that the overall train- ing effort will produce the numbers and quality of research scientists which forecasts suggest will be required in the future. This presupposes that NIH/ ADAMHA will continue to bear a substantial share of the costs of graduate edu- cation in the biomedical/behavioral sciences with provision for adjustment in the face of evidence of excess) ve or insufficient training effort . IV. A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK The Committee focused its attention on an eclectic, pluralistic approach de- $igned to bring together information and seasoned judgment from a number of differ. ent sources to permit testing of tentative findings of national need and eventual formulation of recommendations. Although there are promising developments in fore- casting personnel needs, particularly in the use of models that take market forces and individual and institutional behavior into account, the Committee is not con- vinced that the outputs of such comprehensive models are as yet sufficiently reli- able to fulfill requirements of the law.

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7 To illustrate the Committee's approach, the relationships among a number of possible sources of information and types of analyses are shown in a block diagram (Fig-tire 1). Although the arrows suggest a cybernetic approach, the diagram is in . . reality less precise than this since many of the units have multiple connections that are not depicted and since the units themselves are quite complex. The types of activity represented by the individual blocks may be outlined as fop ows: Background Studies - Demographic analysis of trends in university and professional school enrollment rates and on anticipated sizes of groups from which enroll- ment will be drawn---to establish the need for new faculty. - Identification of new and emerging research areas with potential impact on manpower requirements---e."., research on biological effects of envi- ronmental chemicals as a basis for establishing criteria and standards. - Examination of manpower utilization patterns in research. - Examination of trends in expenditures for research and development--- the single most important determinant of demand for research personnel. Cost/benefit analyses to try to determine the returns on investment in graduate education. Projections - Consideration of "fixed coefficient" models of the education/manpower system. - Development and testing of "market' models that take into account stu- dent choices of fields of study and initial job decisions; decisions of persons already in the work force; employer hiring, firing, promotion and retirement policies, salary data; and governmental initiatives and responses. Pipeline Studies - Flow of personnel through graduate and postdoctoral education into em- ployment, including analyses of enrollment data, degree attainment, at- rition, field switching, and turnover and aging of the research work force . Labor-Market Studies - Monitoring of various job placement services. - Demand surveys of industry and other employment sectors. Labels correspond to those in Figure 1.

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- 10 - advanced predoctoral levels; (2) suggestions for curriculum change to meet new needs; and (3) most importantly, the award of postdoctoral fellowships and traineeships to facilitate field switching and to smooth out market fluctuations. The two types of recommendations would be transmitted in annual reports to the Secretary (and to the academic community). V. OBJECTIVES The major foci of a Continuing study of national heeds w;11 be aggregate num' hers, estimates by f~elds---and, where possible, subtields---stability, flexibil- ity, and excellence. While closely interrelated, study approaches along these dimensions will vary, as will the time frame for their accomplishment. In view of the time constraints set by law, it is therefore necessary to distinguish between activities to be undertaken in an initial period extending from March 1, 1975, to June 30, 1975, and those to be addressed over the longer term. A e Initial Objectives - The immediate need is for aggregate projections for the bromedical/ behavioral sciences and for estimates by major field, leading to recommenda- tnons of levels of training support. Aggregate projections. the comtn;ttee belie ~ it feasible to pro~o'ect de- mand for biomedical and behavioral research personnel, based on suitable as- sumptions concerning levels of research support, by allowing the analysis to be directed by demographic factors and by expert judgments concerning the emergence of new areas of knowledge and technology. In addition, it seems feasible in the initial period to develop econometric models of supply and demand in these fields, using national time-series data for the biomedical and behavioral sciences in the aggregate, and to test such models for their applicability. In particular, one of these models would involve the use of relative-salary data. Models of this type have been used with some degree of success to provide estimates for physics, engineering, and law. For owing the strategy of previous scientific manpower model-building developed by Freeman and others, the Committee would seek to use available data on de- grees, salaries, R&D expenditures, enrollment, etc., to forecast supply and demand contingent upon exogeneous policy variables. It will be essential in making these projections to take into account changing opportunities and demand for women end members of minority groups within the Nationts biomedical/behavioral research programs. Field projections. Since adequate studies exist on the numbers of doc- toral degrees awarded by field each year, short-term projections can be at- tempted during the initial period of continuing study. The feasibility of making forecasts by field, as suggested under III-A above, has limitations. The narrower the fields covered, the greater will be the problem of substi- tutability. Another way of stating the problem is that the number of those with first training in a given field is an inadequate measure of the supply