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4 . BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE S with the inception of a modest program of individual fellowship -support in ~ 948, the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) began the task of strengthening the behavioral science research eff ort in the United States though a program of awards designed to train individuals in the method s o f ~ he behaviora ~ sci ence s ~ Schneider, ~ 97 4) . While the fellowship was the preferred mechanism for research training in "he early years of the institute' s training ef fort, the inst ~ tutional training grant, introduced in ~ 9 57, soon surpassed the fellowship program in the total number of awards made. Even today, as Table 1. ~ illustra~ es, the traineeship dominates the behavioral science research trains ng ef f ort in ADAMHA at a ratio of about f ive trainee ships to one fe llowship. Chile many ~ ndividuals consider behavioral sciences research training to relate exclusively to the programs of AD-AMHA, a recent study reports Chat over the years more than 3,000 awards have been made for research training in the behavioral sciences through the various Institutes of the NIH (NRC, 1976b). Mos' of this research training support has been provided through the programs of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD} and the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGHS}. However, a notable number of awards have also beer made by such Institutes as the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI), and the National Institute for Dental Research (NIDR). Federal support for research training in the behavioral sciences has therefore expanded beyond the traditional research probe ems of mental health to embrace a broad range of physical as wail as mental health questions as advances in our understanding of behavior have made contributions to these research efforts. In its 1976 report, the committee concluded that current market trends in the behavioral sciences suggested an "orderly tapering down of predoctoral support 'I at this time. Market information suggested that the age distribution of the Ph.D. behavioral scientists is rather young, with relatively few individuals retiring from the labor force in the next several years. coupled with data that suggest the stabilization of undergraduate and graduate "nroliments at this time, traditional modes of employment for the 76
behavioral scientist emerging with doctoral training at this tine are not forthcoming. In an attempt to confirm the employment expert ences of emerging behavioral scientists, the Committee sought information through a survey of recent graduates. In the for lowing sections the results of this survey, together with data describing anticipated employment condi' ions, are provided. CURRENT MARKET SITUATION FOR RECENT GRADUATES As noted in the Commi~tee's 1976 re Fort (Chapter 3), the available forecasts t of the employment market for psychologists and other behavioral scientists projected a substantial oversupply of doctoral personnel by 1980. During the past year the committee has examined findings from a survey of 1971-75 graduates to determine the current ma'Re' situation in these fields. Responses were received from 4,538 (70 percents of the 6,495 behavioral graduates surveyed, 2 and no important bias in response was found {Appendix C). In its analyses of survey data the Committee specifically examined: ( 1 ) percentage with full employment; (2) types of positions hey d; (3) mob lity among training and employment fields; arid (4) overall utilization of research training. Particular attend on has been given to differences among graduates in five ma jor fields within the behaviors 1 s cienc~s-- anthropology, clini Cal psychology, (nonclinical) psychol ogy, sociology, and other behavioral feed ds. Since federal research training money has been d~ rected to only a subset of behavioral scientists in f ~ elds relevant to heal' h research, separate consideration has been giver to ~ hose doctorate recipients who had received predoctoral support f rom NIH, ADAMHA, or HRA. Findings from -=he survey indicated: that most of the behavioral science Ph. D. ' s have been employed in full -time post tions. Data summarized in Table 4. ~ reveals: . · At the time of the survey snore than 88 percent of these graduates he1 d full- - ~ ime positions and 3 percent held postdoctoral appointments; s lightly more than 2 percent were seeking employee nt . An average of more than ~ 3 percent of the ~ 971-75 Ph. D. recipients ' tote] time (in months} since graduation was spent in regular full-time positions, and another 6 percent on postdoctoral appo~ ntments; only 2 percent of their 77
TABLE 4.1 Employment Status of 1971-75 Behavioral Ph. D. Recipients Fiscal Year of Doctorate Trainees Total Fellows 1971 1972 1973 1974 197S Employment status (as of October 1976 ) TOTAL % 100. 0 (100. 0) 100.0 100. 0 100.0 100.0 100. 0 Postdoctoral appointment % 2 . 9 (4.1) I.4 0. 9 1. 6 3 .2 6.3 Full-time employment % 88. 2 ( 86. 5) 87 . 6 92 . 0 89. 7 87 . 6 85. 0 Part-time employment % 5.4 (6.5) 7.8 4.6 5.2 5.9 3.9 Seeking employment % 2.4 (1.9) 1.9 1.4 2.8 2.3 3.4 Other statusC % 1. 1 ( 1. o) 1. 3 1. 2 0. 8 1.1 1. 4 Survey item responses N 3892 ( 1404) 606 608 679 762 1237 Estimated total Ph.D. 's N 159~6 (4698) 2817 2920 3059 3523 3607 Average time since receipt of doctorate spent in: TOTAL 96 100. 0 ( 100. 0) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Postdoctoral appointment 9~ 6. 5 ( 8 .1) 6. 2 5 . 0 5.8 6.1 9. 0 Full-time employment % 83. 5 ( 81. 7) 83.7 88.1 85. 0 82. 2 79. 4 Part-time employment % 5. 9 ( 6 ~ 7) 6. 7 3 . 0 5. 7 8.1 5 . 4 Seeking employment 96 2.0 (1.~ 1.1 1.9 1.7 1.6 3.4 Other statusC % 2.1 (1.9) 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.8 Survey item responses N 3844 (1389) 593 600 674 752 122S Estimated total Ph.D. 's N 15926 (4698) 2817 2920 3059 3523 3607 _ resee Appendixes El.1 and E2~1 for comparable data in each of the behavioral fields specified in the survey taxonomy. Includes all behavioral science Ph.D. recipients who received predoctoral training grant or fellowship Support from ADAmIA, NIH, or HEA. See Appendixes E1.2 and E2e2 for comparable data in each of the behavioral fields specified in the survey taxonomy. Includes students and others who were unemployed and not seeking employment. SOURCE : NRC , Survey of Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists , Washington , D. C., 1976. 78
ime was spent unemployed and seek ing a job. Simi Tar re suits were f ound for the subpopulation of behavicra ~ science Ph. D. recipients who had received pr~doctora ~ suppor ~ f rorr N]:H/ADAMHA/HPA. Although a higher rate of unemployment was observed f or ~ 975 graduates than f or ~ 9 7 ~ - 74 degree reck pients, the dif f erence wa s quite small and doe s not clearly signi f y any change in labor market conditions. Recent behavioral science Ph.D. 's might be expected to encounter more cliff iculty in finding suitable positions in the initial stages of their careers than their biomedical counterparts, as there has been little support avail able for postdoctoral study in the behavioral scar ences. As shown in Tables 4. 2a and 4. 2b, a ma jollity of the ~ 971-75 graduates in anthropology, psychology (excluding clinical), and sociology were employed in four-year colleges and univers it ies and devoted most of their time to teaching and research activities. On the other hand, about two- thirds of the clinical psychologists held positions outside the academic sector and were much more likely to provide professional services, as might be expected. Although behavioral science graduates on the average spent less time in research than their biomedical science counterparts, more than 90 percent of the anthropologists and sociologists and more than ~ O per cent o f the noncl in ice ~ AS ycho lo gi sts indicated that they devoted at least some time to research act i vi ~ i e s . About one - thi rd of th e se inve s ~ iga ~ or s r e c eider federal support, and many (between 25 and 37 percent) cons dered their research interest to be directly related to health (Table 4. 3) . The subpopulation of predc~ctoral trainees and fellows have had an even greater involvement in health-relet ed research. This group was concentrated more heavily in the academic sector, devoted greater time to research activites directly related to health, and was more likely to receive federal research support. In contrast to biomedical scientists, only a small fraction (about ~ 0 percent) of the total behavioral research ef fort of ~ 97 1- 75 graduates in the academic sector was carried out by persons holding postdoctoral appointments {Table 4. 4) . This is not surprising and is consistent with the fact that an average of only ~ 2 percent of these graduates in all behavioral f ields have Pursued postdoctoral study within a year after graduation. The percentage is somewhat hi gher f o r tho se who had rece ived pre do ctora ~ support from NIH/ADAMHA/HEP tray Ding programs. While this percentage did not increase during the 1971-75 period, 3 the overall number of behavioral Ph.9. recipients actually on postdoctoral appointments grew from an estimated 466 79
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individuals in ~ 972 to 750 ~ n ~ 975. 4 Nevertheless, the 750 postdoctoral appointees in ~ 975 represented a negligible portion of the total available suppl y of doctoral scientists in behavioral fields. Federal training gran' s and fed lowships have been a primary source of support for 70 percent of these appointments {Appendix E] ~ ~ and undoubtedly have had an important impact on the rate of growth of postdoctorals. Survey results reported in Table 4.5 indicated that there has been considerable mobility between behavioral training and employment fields: More than 3 2 percent of al ~ ~ 9 7 1- 7 5 behavioral gradua tes were working in fields outside their doctoral specialties . Three-fourth of the graduates felt that their Ph. D. fields were closely red a ted to their employment f ields ~ The Committee noted some important differences in the field- swi~ ching patterns of graduates trained in each of the four ma Jo r beha~riora ~ f ields: More than 9 0 percent of the clinical psycho logi st s con s ide red their doctoral training and employment f ields to be closely related.. In contrast, only 6 6 percent of the sociologists, 68 percent of the psychologists, and 79 percent of the anthropologists felt that their Ph. D. specialties were closely related to their empl oyment fields. Most of the f ield-switching has been to other specialties within the b~haviora ~ science s. Only ~ percent of the ~ 97 ~ - 75 graduates were employed outside the behavioral area, and less than 3 percent considered their training and employment f ields to be unrelated. Despot te the substantial mobility that has occurred among behavioral f ields, most of the recent graduates were currently employed in positions appropriate to their training. Survey results summarized in Table 4.6 specifically indicated: · Of those employed in ful 1-time positions (excluding postdoctoral appointments}, more than 83 percent considered their doctorates essential in attaining their present positions, 84
3ZA8LE 4.5 Relevance of Current Employment Field to Doctorate Field of 1971-75 Ph.D. 's Field of Doctorate Clinical Total Anthro. Psych. Psych. Sociology Other Empl owed in: TOTAL % 100.0 100. 0 100. 0 100.0 100. 0 100. 0 Ph. D. Specialty % 67. 5 80.4 89. 5 53. 5 60. 2 76. 5 Other behavioral field % 24.6 12.7 7.9 36.3 31.9 9.1 Other field % 7.9 6.9 2.7 10.3 7.8 14.4 Ph. D. fiel d and empl oyment fiel d were considered: TOTAL % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Closely related % 75.~. 80.S 90.2 68.7 65.8 82.0 Somewhat related % 21.7 21.7 9.7 27.9 31.1 13.4 Not at all related % 2.5 2.6 0.1 3.4 3.2 4.6 Survey item responses N 3638 321 600 2059 349 309 Estimated total employed N 15362 1255 4119 6957 2094 937 See Aunendix E14. 1 for cc~anuarable data in each of the behavioral fields: specified in the survey taxonomy. SOURCE: NRC, Survey of Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists, Washington, D.C., 1976. ~5
TABLE 4.6 Relevance of Doctoral Degree, Try ning, and Research Experience to Present Employment Situation of 1971-75 Behavioral Ph.D.'sa Field of Doctorate Clinical Total Anthro. Psych. In attaining present position, doctorate was considered: Psych. Sociology Other TOTAL % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Essential ~ 83.2 86.0 89.0 79.9 81.1 84.3 Helpful % 13.5 10.7 9.9 15.6 15.9 12.0 Unimportant % 2.8 2.2 1.1 4.1 2.2 3.1 Uncertain % 0.5 1.1 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 Survey item responses N 3367 299 567 1867 341 293 Estimated total full-time employed ~ 14048 1153 3694 6323 2005 873 Necessary training reared to fulfill present job TOTAL % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Postdoctoral % 4.9 2.1 7.1 5.9 1.2 0.7 M.D./Ph.D. % 77.7 85.5 81.1 73.1 79.5 82.1 M.S./M.A. % 14.7 9.1 10.8 17.5 16.3 15.0 B.S./B.A. ~ 1.5 2.0 0.3 2.0 1.6 1.6 Other training % 1.2 I.3 0.8 1.5 1.5 0.6 Survey item responses Estimated total full-t~me employed Predoctoral research experience considered: N .3349 N 14048 296 1153 565 3694 1854 6323 340 2005 294 873 TOTAL % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Essential % 47.8 73.4 25.2 53.9 54.~. so.i Helpful % 43.7 21.2 58.8 39.1 42.7 46.1 Not needed % 6.9 3.4 14.5 5.2 2.3 2.2 Uncertain % 1.6 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.0 1.3 Survey item responses Estimated toner full-time employed N 3320 N 14048 297 554 3694 1846 6323 336 2005 287 873 . . . . aces A,openaixes E6.l, E7.1, and E8.1 for comparable data in each of the beh~io~l fields specified in the survey taxonomy.. SOURCE: NRC, Survey of Earned Doctorates, Washington, D.C., 1969-76. 86
while only 3 percent indicated that their degrees were unimportant. Almost 83 percent of these respondents felt that their doctoral or postdoctoral training was required to fulfill present job responsibilities adequately. Approximately 48 percent considered their predoc~oral re search expert ence essential to their present positions, while only 7 percent found this experience not at all useful. some important differences were found in the evaluation of predoctoral research expel ence by gra duates in the four major behavioral disciplines. Only one-fourth of the clinical psychologists and Slightly more than half of the sociologists and psychologists considered this predoctoral research experience essential to their present employment. In contrast, nearly three-fourths of the recent graduates in anthropology felt this training was essential to their work. RECENT EXPANSION OF THE BEHAVIORAL SCI ENCE LABOR FORCE Although there is not yet evidence of a serious oversupply of behavioral scientists, the Committee nonetheless is concerned about factors that suggest that the labor force will expand at a faster rate than the job market in the near future. The past expansion of the labor force has been almost entirely due to the large increase in the total number of Ph.D. 's awarded annually in behavioral fields. The number of persons who received doctorates each year in these fields6 has more than quadrupled between 1960 and 1976 {Figure 4. ~ and Appendix E19) . AS more doctorates have been awarded each year,- ~ he proportion of degree recipients unab le to f ind e m~?loyment bef ore graduation a ~ so has grown. By ~ 976 more than ~ ~ percent of the graduating cohort had no prospective job coranitment (Table 4.7~. Although this statistic' has increased in all behavioral fields, some important differences were noted. For example, less than 12 percent of 1976 Ph.D. recipients in sociology were without employment at graduation, but more than 26 percent of the anthropology graduates that year were in a similar situation. As mentioned in the preceding section of this chapter, nearly all of the recent behavioral science graduates have found positions soon after receiving their degree. However, a small but steadily increasing fraction planned JO take jobs out side the academic sector (Table 87
4000 3000 cr ~ 2000 I J I< in 1 000 / / , _ / / / / / / / / o 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1960 1965 1970 F ISCAL YEAR OF DOCTORATE 1975 FIGURE 4.1 Total annual Ph.D.'s awarded in behavioral sciences. See footnote (a) in Table 4.7. Data from NRC, Survey of Earned Doctorates, Washington, D.C., 1958-76. 88
TABLE 4.7 Employment Prospects of 1969-76 Behavioral Ph.D.'s Fiscal Year of Doctorate 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Job prospects at completion of Ph. D. program Total Ph.D.'s in behavioral sciences % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Firm commitment Be 81.5 81.3 81.6 78.7 77.0 75.1 73.6 71.2 Tentative plans % 9. 7 10.2 8.2 9.3 9.7 10.9 10.1 10.1 Seeking position % 7.5 8.1 9.4 11.2 12.7 13.4 15.9 18.1 Other % 1.3 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.6 Ph.D.'s in anthropology N 159 194 217 231 299 346 354 386 % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Firm commitment % 89.0 88.3 86.5 87.0 78.3 76.3 63.2 65.7 Tentative plans % 5.2 4.4 5.3 6.0 8.3 8.1 15.0 7.5 Seeking position % 5.8 6.7 7.7 6.9 12.7 15.0 21.9 26.5 Other % 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.3 Ph.D. 's in clinical psychology N 514 533 601 667 731 760 790 863 96 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100. O Firm commitment % 78.1 74.0 72.9 74.5 75.9 72.8 71.3 68.8 Tentative plans % 11.9 14.6 12.7 12.0 10.5 11.9 11.4 12.9 - Seeking position % 8.3 11. 2 13.4 12.0 12.8 14.1 16.6 17.5 Other % 1.6 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.8 Ph.D.'s in psychology N 1168 1264 1424 1514 1660 1763 1847 1918 % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Firm commitment % 80.0 80.7 81.2 76.3 74.2 73. 2 73.2 70.0 Tentative plans % 10.3 10.5 8.1 9.4 9.9 11.4 10.0 9.9 Seeking position 95 8.3 8.4 9.5 14.0 15.3 14.8 16.6 19.4 Other % - 1.4 0.3 1.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.7 Ph.D. 's in sociology N 353 449 527 576 527 581 596 663 % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Firm commitment % 88.4 86.0 87.7 85.3 83.9 82.4 82.0 79.7 Tentative plans % 5.4 8.0 5.8 7.5 8.3 8.9 6.3 8.5 Seeking position % 5.1 5.5 6. 2 6.4 7.8 8.3 11.2 11.5 Other % 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.9 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.3 Survey item responses N 2144 2459 2827 2937 3210 3275 3495 3781 Total Ph.D.'sb N 2258 2556 2955 3115 3374 3576 3698 3°71 Only responses from graduates with definite or tentative employment plans were counted here. The total Ph.D.'s reported here exceeds the 1971-75 Ph.D. estimates presented earlier because the set of basic behavioral fields used from the Survey of Earned Doctorates, from which data in this table were derived, in- cluded a somewhat broader population than the set developed for the Com~nittee's survey of recent doctorate recipients. A comparison of these two taxonomies is given in Chapter 2. See Appendix B21 for data on Ph.D.'s awarded in each biomedical field. SOURCE: NRC, Survey of Eagled Doctorates, Washington, D.C., 1969-76. 89
4. 8) . Most of this movement into nonacademic markets has been by psychos ogists (both clinics ens and nonclinicians) who took positions in business (primarily self-errployment), hospi~al/clinics, and other nonprofit organizations. Until the 2 percent increase in 1976 there had been no substantial change in the proportion of behavioral Ph. D. recipients who intended to undertake postdoctoral study. - Between 1972 and ~ 975 the behavioral science Ph. D. labor force expanded at an annual rate of more than ~ percent (Tabs e 4. 9) . While all sectors shared in this growth, there wa s a s ~ i gh ~ de c ~ ine in the proport ion of behaviors ~ scientists employed in the academic sector. Most behavioral research ~ s performed in the academic sector, wi' h government and industry playing lesser rod es than they do in the t~ omedical area (see Table 3. ~1) . Accordingly, it is not surer sing to find that the fraction of the labor force doing some research has deck ined between 1972 and 1975. Nearly al ~ of the expansion in the behavioral labor force has resulted f rom the direct entry of new graduates. As shown in Figure 4.2, the ~ 975 Ph.D. cohort represented a potential increment of nearly 11 percent to the existing abor f or ce . Mo s t o f the s e gradual e s ente red the lab o force directs y and did not pursue postdoctoral study. Although the tote ~ number of persons on postdoctoral appointments grew considerably between 1972 and 1975, this number represented a potential increment to the labor force of only 2 percent {i . e., shout ~ all 75 0 persons complete thei r postdoctoral appointments in ~ 97 5 and enter the labor force within the next ye ar , the s iz e of the behavioral labor force would increase by 2 percent) e On the other hand, attrition from the behavioral labor force has been g~cwinq. Between 1972 and 1975 the number of behavioral science Ph.D.'s employed outside the area has increased, while fewer persons trained in other sciences were found in behavioral science employment fields (Tabl e 4. 10) . The percentage of behavioral scientists retiring in ~ 975 was estimated to be as high as ~ . ~ percents of the labor force. Nonetheless, the total number of persons leaving the labor force continues to be quite small in compari son to *he number earning doctorates each year. Even if the number of Ph. D. ' s awarded annual ly were not to increase any in the next few years, the Committee anticipates considerable expansion in the available supply of behavioral science Ph. D. 's. OUTLOOK FOR THE BEHAVIOR SCIENCES From the surrey results, it is apparent that for Ph.D. ' s in the behavioral s cience fields the system works dif ferently than for those in the biomedical science f ields. More behavioral scientists tend to work ~ n clinical research and treatment areas than do biomedical science Ph.D. 's, their 90
TAB~ 4.8 E~lo~ent Plans of 1969-76 Behavioral Ph.D. 's Fisca1 Yeas of Doctorate 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 Pastgraduat~an pla~s Total Ph.D.'s in behaviora1 sciences ~ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Planning postdoc. appoint~nent ~ 11.0 11.3 11.1 lO.e 11.0 11.3 11.8 13.5 Planning employment % 88.5 88.2 88.3 88.7 88.3 88.5 87.4 85.5 Academic ~ector % 59.4 60.5 61.6 58.5 54.9 53.8 52.6 48.7 Businese % 3.2 3.1 2.3 2!1 3.1 3.0 2.8 3.0 Governaent ~ 13.8 13.4 12 .8 16.2 14.8 15.2 15 .2 15. 3 Other ~ 12.2 11.3 11.6 12.0 15.5 16.5 16.8 18.5 Other plans % 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.9 1.0 N 159 194 217 231 299 346 354 386 Ph.D.'s in anthropology % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Planning postdoc. appointment ~ ~ 4.8 12.6 4.7 9.0 10.5 8.5 6.9 8.7 Planning e~ployment % 94.5 86.8 92.6 90.5 87.9 91.5 91.2 90.2 Academic sector ~ 88. 3 82 .6 87 .4 84 .6 78 .7 82 .2 83 .5 77 . ~ Business % 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 2.2 1.9 0.4 Gover~ent ~ 3.4 3.0 2.1 1.5 0.4 3.3 2.3 5.7 Other ~ 2.8 1.2 3.2 4.0 7.5 3.7 3.4 7.2 Other plans % 0.7 0.6 2.6 0.5 1.7 0.0 1.9 1.1 N 514 533 601 667 731 760 790 863 Ph.D.'s in clinical psychology % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Planning postdoc. appointment 13.2 9.1 10.4 9.8 10.1 11.7 11.5 12.5 Planning employment % 86.8 90.7 89.2 89.9 89.3 87.9 88.1 86.9 Academic sector % 32.9 36.3 34.7 26.4 28.3 25.1 24.8 22.6 Business ~ 0.7 1.3 1.6 0.9 2.1 2.3 1.3 2.3 Government % 32.2 34.6 32.7 39.4 33.3 28.9 31.9 32.5 Other % 21.0 18.5 20.2 23.2 25.5 31.6 30.0 29.4 Other plan. % 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.6 N 1168 1264 1424 1514 1660 1763 1847 1918 Ph.D.'s in psychology ~~ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Planning postdoc. appointment % 13.3 15.4 16.4 14.9 14.0 14.7 15.9 18.5 Planning e~ployment % 86.4 84.1 83.2 84.6 85.1 85~1 83.2 80.5 Ac~a~c sector % 59.3 56.9 57.2 56.1 51.6 49.8 48.3 43.0 Business % 5.8 5.7 3.8 3.4 4.7 4.6 3.8 4.5 Governeent % 9.6 9.6 10.7 13.9 12.7 15.1 13.7 13.7 Other % 11.7 11.9 11.6 11.2 16.1 15.6 17.3 19. 3 Other plans ~ 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.1 1.0 1.0 N 353 449 527 576 527 581 596 663 Ph.D.'s in sociology ~ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Planning postdoc. appointment ~ 3.2 4.2 2.6 3.5 5.2 3.9 3.7 S.O P ning emplo ent ~ gS 7 gS g Academic sector ~ 984 4 ~g35 46 986 0 87 6 964 1 ~g353 6 84 1 961 1 Business ~ 0.6 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.3 0.4 1.6 1.9 Government ~ 5 1 . 3 7 3 g 3 3 4 S S e s 1 4 5 Other 5 1 5 6 6 0 3 g 4 7 5 ,3 5 1 6 3 Other plans ~ 1.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.3 Survey item responses N 1956 2251 2539 2585 2784 2814 2926 3071 Tot~ Ph.D.ts N 2258 2556 2955 3115 3374 3576 3698 3971 Only responses from graduates with d~finite or tentative e~ployment plans were counted here. Includes a tota1 (in all yeses) of 1,028 graduates in speech and hearing sciences not sub~umed under one of the four major areas. 91
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Annual Ph.D.'s Awarded in Behavioral Fields (3698) Postdoctoral Appointments in Behavioral and Related Fields {750} \ 11 .8%~/ _ ~ / (includes persons continuing post-\ doctoral study as well as those ~ taking appointments for the first \, time) {88.2%} l Annual Net Mobility Into Over Fields (4275~) ~ c' ~ o lo o m a: J J cr O > I m Total Size (36508) Academia (22746) Business {4078} Government {2457) T 1 Other Sectors (6863) Biannual Attrition ~ (includes retirement estimate only) \~654} J FIGURE 4.2 Components contributing to the annual grown of the behavioral science labor force. Figures in parentheses represent estimated sizes in 1975. From NRC, Survey of Doctorate Recipients, Washington, D.C., 1975. 93
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training and research are supported by the federal government to a far lesser extent, and postdoctoral appointments are markedly fewer. These are ~ mportant differences, but "perhaps the most significant distinction between behavioral and biomedical scientists is in their work activities. Behavioral science Ph.D. 's spend less than half as much Lime in research and considerably more time in teaching and professional services {mainly clinical psychologists). Consequently the demand for Ph. D. scientists in the behavioral science fields is governed les s by R and D expenditures and more by enrollments than in the biomedical science fields. The composition of the behavioral sciences has much to do with this. Sociology and anthropology are highly research- orientea fields, but they are small in comparison to psychology. On the other hand, a significant portion of psychologists are clinically oriented, thus weakening the association between research expends tures and faculty positions in the total behavioral sciences area. In the biosciences (see Chapter 3) academic demand was shown to be dependent on R and D expenditures and enrolim~nts, but because ~ t is not possible to demonstrate any sign i f icant correlation between R and D expenditures and ace Semi c demand f or behaviora ~ s c ienti s ~ s without Al sa ggregating the behaviors ~ science fi elds, enrolimer~t trends become even more significant in these fields than in the biomedical sciences with regard to estimating future demand. Firs--year graduate enrollment in the behavioral sciences slowed JO an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent in 1971 (Table 4.~) after a decade of rapid growth averaging more than 1 1 percent per year. But academic demand is probably affected by a broader measure of enrollment. Estimates of Moral undergraduate and graduate enrollment in the behavioral sciences have been developed in this study for the period 1961-75 (Figure 4.31. They show a similar pattern--rising at almost 14 percent per year throughout the 1960's to a peak in 1972, then resuming growth at a somewhat reduced rate (about 6 percent per year} in 1974. In order to estimate the near-term outlook for behavioral science Ph.D.'s, we have made three projections of total behavioral science enrollment in colleges and universities. The high estimate (Assumption A) assumes that the current trend (6 percent per year) will continue, rising to 1.2 million in 1982. A middle estimate (Assumption B} is based on Car-ter's (1976) projected rate of 2.08 percent per yea' for enrollment in all fields up to 1982. This assumption yields an estimated 912,750 graduate and undergraduate students in the behavioral sciences in 1982. The low estimate (Assumption C) assumes essentially no growth in enrollment, so that through 1982 it remains at the 1975 level of almcs~ 800, 000 {Figure 4.3~. Another factor affecting academic demand is the Ph. D. faculty~student rati o (F/Sl, where F = total Ph. D. faculty 95
TABLE 4.11 Current Trends in Supply/Demand Indicators for Behavioral Science Ph.D.'s Average Annual Growth Rate, 1971 1975 1971-75 Supply indicators: Ph.D. production 2,955 3,698 5.8% Postdoctoral appts. 466 (1972) 750 17.2% (1972-75) Demand indicators: Behavioral science R and D expenditures at colleges and universities (1967 $) $94.6 million $94.6 million 0% D ~ obligations for research in psychology and the · social sciences (1967 $) $150.7 million $105.8 million -8.5% Labor force: Behavioral Ph.~.'s employed in colleges and universities (excluding postdoctorals) 18:,778 22,746 4.9% Behavioral science enrollments: First-year grad. 22,709 25,081 2.5% Total grad. 40,356 49,036 5.0% Estimated undergrad. 653,759 741,214 3.2% Total grad. and undergrad.c 694,115 790,250 3.3% In this table the behavioral fields are defined as psychology, sociology, and anthropology. A large part of these research programs have been funded through the U.S Office of Education, which had a sharp drop from $54 million in 1971 to $5 million in 1975. . Estimated by the formula Ui = (Ai+2/Bi+2)Ci r where Ui = behavioral science undergraduate enrollments in year i; Ai+2 = behavioral science baccalaureate degrees awarded in year 1+2; Bi+2 = total baccalaureate degrees awarded in year 1+2; C; = total undergraduate enrollments in year i. - SOURCES : NRC (1973, 1975d), NSF (1976), U.S. Office of Education (1975a, b) 96 .
i: 1 00 _ ~ 0.04 so - ~ z 80 _ / 0.03 NO sol- / NO 60 ~ / <0.02 50 ~ / ~ 40 ~/ 0.01 30 , - O ~ ,1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 o 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 FISCAL YEAR (a) Behavioral R and D at Colleges and Universities (1967 $) - ~ I 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 FISCAL YEAR (b) Behavioral Science Ph.D. Faculty/Student Ratio ., 35 F High Estimated/ 1200 _ PA ~ 30 ,, Probable o SHOOT '' ___ B 0 25; ~ Estenata ~ 800¢ ~ ~~~~C ~ 20~ ~LowEstimaia Z 600 _ ~ m 15 _ 3 400 ~ ~ 10 _ O 200 ~ Z 5 _~ Z o 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 '1 1 1 1, 01 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ' 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 - FISCAL YEAR CALENDAR YEAR (c) Behavioral Science Graduate and Undergraduate Enrollment FIGURE 4.3 Behavioral science (psychology, sociology, and anthropology) enrollment, Rand D expenditures, and aca- demic employment, 1961-75, with projections to 1982. Based on data from NRC (1973, 1975d), NSF (1956-70, 1976), and U.S. Office of Education (1959-75). See also Appendix F1. (d) Behavioral Science Ph.D.'s Employed in Collars and Universities 97
and ~ = graduate and undergraduate degree-credit enrollment. Over ~ he ~ 5 yea rs f row ~ 96 ~ to ~ 975, thi s rati o ranged f ram a low Of O.023 i n ~962 to a high of 0.029 in ~974 for behavioral science Ph. D. ' s. ~ ° Within this mange there has been considerate, e fluctuation over time, which is apparently not explained by R and D expenditures, contrary to the situation for the biomedical sciences. Three assumptions have been made about the future patterns of the faculty/studer~ ratio for behavioral Ph.D.'s. The high assumption is that the F/S ratio will continue to increase, reaching 0.033 in 1982. The middle assumption is that the F/S ration will increase slightly to 0.030 by 1982. The low assumption is that the F/S ratio will decline to 0~028 by 1982. Projections of the expected number of behavioral science Ph.D.'s to be employed by colleges and universities in 1982 under the nine assumptions (about future enrollments and future F/S ratios) are shown in Table 4.12. Under the highest combination of assumptions (IA of Table 4.12), the Ph.D. component of the behavioral science faculty would grow by B.2 percent per year to 39,600 in 1982. This rate is much higher than its current 4.9 percent annual rate of growth and appears quite unrealistic. Assumptions IIA and IIIA also lead to a projected growth ~at" higher than the current on=. A, ~ other assumptions result in a ~ ower-than-current rate. Thus, only with a f a ir ly high F/S rati o and under the mo st optimi stic proj ection of enroot Iment would academic employment opportunities for Ph.D.'s in the behavioral sciences expand faster than at present. If behavioral science enrolimen~ approaches the growth rate pro j ect=d by Cartter for a 11 fields, a considerab~ e slowdown from the current growth in behaviors ~ science Ph. D. faculty can be expected over the 1 975-82 period. The pro j ections of behavioral science Ph. D. faculty size shown in Table 4.12 are ~ Translated in Table 4. 13 into annual increments expected due to fact by expansion. In addition to expansion needs, a certain number are needed for reps acement . These are also Cal culated in Table 4. ~ 3 on the basis of Car' ter's estimated death and retirement rate of 1.3 percent per year. Historical y, between 60 and 65 percents ~ of the behavioral science Ph. D. labor force have found academic employmen ~ (excluding postdoctorals} . At the current level of behavioral science Ph.D. production {about 4,000 in ~ 976 ), between 2, 400 and 2, 6 00 new behavioral science Ph. D . ~ s wound ~ expect ~ o f ind academic employmen ~ based on past experience. However, only under the highest assume ions would ~ this number of academic positions become available. The committee believes that this is unlike] y to occur. If Cartter's pro jec ted growth rate prevails, at best only about 1, 400 positions would be available annually. 98
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Either behavioral science Ph.D. production would have to drop JO about half its current level, or the fraction of each Ph.D. cohort that would find academic employment under these circumstances would be much smaller than it has been in the past, perhaps as small as 35 percent. AS in the biomedical sciences section, these comparisons are based on past employment patterns of Ph.D.'s on college faculties. Of course, not all faculty positions are held by individuals with doctorate degrees. The process by which Ph.D.'s acquire a larger share of the academic labor market has been characterized as enrichment by the NSF (1975c). There is no indication that enrichment has been occurring in the behavioral science fields. For example, in 1971 there were 16,800 psychologists employed in colleges and universities, of which 10,600 (63 percent) were Ph D.'s. In 1975, an identical proportion of psychologists employed by colleges and universities held Ph.D.'s (13,600 out of 21~700, or 63 percent; NSF. 1975a). However' there is a potential enrichment factor here of about 100 positions per year for Ph.D.'s in psychology if the 8,100 nondoctorates are replaced (at Ca~tter's estimated death and retirement rate of 1.3 percent annually) by psychology Ph.~.'s. Comparable data for the other behavioral fields of sociology and anthropology are not available. In contrast to the biomedical sciences, there are signs of a movement away from academic employment in the behavioral fields. In 1975, the proportion of the behavioral science Ph.D. labor force employed in academia was 61.5 percen'_, down from 64.8 percent in 1972. Somewhat greater proportions are now found in private industry (11.0 percent up from 8.9 percent in 1972) and other sectors, including hospitals, clinics, and nonprofit organizations (18.5 percent up from 16.9 percent in 19721. RECOMMENDATIONS Because data suggest a general decline in college enrollments in the next decade, and little change in the faculty/~tudent ratio (F,Sl, the Committee has concluded that the academic sector cannot continue to absorb new Ph.D.'s at the same rate as in the past given current rates of production and current employment conditions. Hence, the Committee recognizes the need to provide a reduced but effective program of predoctoral research training support, which would continue to train individuals in traditional fields important to the national mental health effort, in fields that depend on predoctoral funds for research experience in the natural setting (i.e.. nonlaboratory field work), and in promising areas of behavioral investigation. The Committee continues to view a shift to pcstdoctoral support as an appropriate means to promote the emergence of 1-01
specialized investigators in the area of behavior and health. In making its recommendations for a continued shift to postdoctoral training, the Committee again stresses the importance of minimizing institutional dislocation as a result of this program change. It is the hope of the Committee that the gradual shift to postdoctoral training will result in a w=~-planned training effort sensitive to the impact of new postdoctoral training opportunities on the care er paste rns of behaviors ~ scientists . Postdoctoral training represents a departure from the typical career pattern for the behavioral scientist today, in contra st ~ o the pattern f or the biomedical re search scientist. Only a small fraction of the total behavioral research effort is carried out by persons holding postdoctoral appointments at this time (Appendix E12. 1) ~ The Comanit-ee considers the NRSA's a means to propel talented Ph.D. ingress igators into the mainstream of productive empl oyme nt i n th e ar e a o f behavi ore ~ a nd he a ~ th a s a re su it of intensive postdoctoral re search training experience Thus, who le the Committee is aware that this shift to postdoctoral ~ raining Will contribute to the expansion of the- postdoctora ~ populati on, which is growing even today, the Corn item considers such training essential to assure the avai labi lity of inve stiga tars in f ie 1d s f or which Poe ~ on o ra ~ train ing may no ~ be adequate ~ Purports developed by various study groups of the President ~ s Biomedical Research Panel conclude, for example, that ~ ncreased opportunities for pos^dcctoral research training would assist the behavioral scientist to address urgent re sea rch que s ti on s challenging re s earc hers today . Postdoctoral research training has been acknowledged as an important means to strengthen or develop skills in such areas as population research, including demographic and fertility studies, in evaluation research and computer simulation methods, and in the role of behavior in di sease development (Behavioral sciences Interdisciplinary cluster, ~ 976) . Such training is also viewed as a means to extend the cooperative study of brain functions by neuro- and behavioral scientists with respect to such processes as learning, sensation and perception, sleep, aging, and emotion {Neurosciences Interdisciplinary cluster, ~ 976) . Fina ~ ly, in the ar ea of behavior development, post doctoral research training may provide the skills necessary to elaborate more precise methods for diagnosing hyperkinesis, autism, and various forms of mental retardation and to provide technique s to better understand the interaction of individual, family, and society in adolescent development (Social and Behavioral Interdisciplinary cluster, ~ 976) . From these examples it is clear that advances in research and changing patterns of education have far- reaching impact on the development of research training policies in the behavioral sciences. AS a result the Committee views the continued monitoring of these and other 102
deve lopme nt s as a n impo rtant ta sk a s recomb enda t ion s f or re search tra ining are developed. Manpower Employment Characteristics The distribution by field of tray ning of research personnel who contribute to federally funded research grants and contracts provides important data for the assessment of the current uti lization of research skills . As described in Chapter 2, the NIH have collected data on such manpower empl Payment chara cteri st i cs . The cocci ttee vi ew s the s e da ta as a potent ia1ly valuable source of information and notes that comparable data are not available at this time f rom ADAGES. Such da tea are critical to a complete assessment of employment characteristics i n the behavioral sciences and .po ssibly for evaluation of future training needs. Recommendation. The Comma ttee urges ADAMHA to undertake the systematic cold ection of data on the characteristics of paid and nonna~d professional personnel employed on research grants and contracts, in order to permit a comprehensive assessment of the uti lization of research training skills in the b~haviora ~ sciences . Predoctoral/Post~cctoral Training In view of a continuing need for additional specialized research training in health-related fields of behavioral science research, and a somewhat reduced need for federal support to produce research doctorates in the traditional fields of the behavioral sciences, the Committee concludes that the she ft toward an increased emphasis on postdoctoral training recorrunended in its ~ 976 report should be continued at this time. In spec if yi ng a shi f ~ to postdoctoral support in it s ~ 976 report, the Committee developed numerical recommendations to reflect the gradual shift from predominantly predoctoral to predominantly postdoctoral trait r.g so important to a minimization of institutional disruption while reorienting the future of ~ research training in the behavioral sciences. As Table 4. 14 reveals, the proportion of awards to be made in the behavioral sciences in FY ~ 978 retain a ma jority (approximately 53 percent) at the predoctoral level. At the November ~ 976 public hearing, represent atives f ram a variety of behavi ore ~ s cience and related fields stressed the importance of a smooth transition from predoctoral to postdoctoral support that 103
TABLE 4.14 Committee Recommendations for NIH and ADAMHA Predoctoral and Postdoctoral Traineeship and Fellowship Awards in the Behavioral Sciences Agency Awards Fiscal Year and Committee - Recommendations 1975 197~6 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Actual awards a Total 1966 1855 Pre 1754 1496 Post 212 359 1976 recommendations Total 1860 1740 1590 Pre 1500 1200 850 Post 360 540 740 1977 recommendations Total 1490 1390 1300 Pre 745 575 390 Post 745 815 910 Y 1976 awards include those made during the transition quarter (the three-month period from July-September 1976, during which the government changed to a new fiscal year definition). )04
would not jeopardize the avai labi lity of support "which too often has been precipitcusly dropped, leaving institutions without time or resources for an appropriate redirection" (Apo] fly, ~ 976) . The Committee reiterates its position that a gradual rather than a rapid shift should be made toward greater postdoctoral training. The Corrun' ttee no-es that the NRSA announcements released by ADAMHA in May ~ 977 for EY ~ 978 awards state that the highest priority f or funding individual fellowships and institutional training grants will be given to applicants f or postdocto ra ~ tra fining, and that "any reque st f or support of predoctora~ training" in institutional grants "must be accompany ed by special justifica' ion in ~ erms of manpower ne ed s in the pa rt i cu la r re sea rch area ~ s) to be enc ompa s sed by =he proposed ~ raining program." At the time of the preparati on of this report, data were not avail able to determine whether the Commi~t~e's recommer-dat ~ ons were being implemented at the rate proposed . The Commit' ee believes, however, that it would be unfortur ate if the wording of this announcement resulted in a more severe curtai Intent by A DAM HA in the number of predoctora~ awards in the behavioral sciences than that recommended in the ~ g76 report. Pecommenda~ ion . The Committee recommends that the shif t to a ratio of 3 0 percent predoctoral/7 0 percent Postdoctoral awards be accomp~ ished by FY 1981. As emphasized in its ~ 976 report, the Committee recommends that thi s shift come about gradual ly so that the distribution in FY 1979 should represent about 5 0 percent predoctoral/S O percent pose doctoral awards (shown in Table 4.141. In view of the importance of supports for f ieldwork at the predoctora' ~ eve' in certain disciplines, such as anthropology, '. he Committee recommends that an adequate number of predoctoral NRSA' s be maintained for this purpose as the shift to predominantly postdoctoral training i s achi eyed . Train~eships/Fellowships The training grant has become the primary mechanism of support for research training in the behavioral sciences over the years. In FY ~975 and ~976, for example, over SO percent of the total number of awards in this area were made in the form of ~raineeships ( see Table 1 .1 ) . As a result, in specifying it s recommendations for program change, the Comma ttee has been sensitive to the need to assure stability of program support f or training institutions as the shift to predominantly postdoctoral trains ng is achieved by EY ~ 981 . 105
Hence, the Committee recommends that res earch trainee ships remain the primary mechanism of support for -raining in behaviors ~ research and that institutions seek to develop training proposal s that appropriately mix predoctoral and postdoctoral support. There is another reason to seek the Maintenance of training support through the research training grant. In the view of the Comnittee i' is through the research training grant that Of f active programs of training can be dove loped in ~ nnovative areas of re search, such as research on the rol ~ of behavior as it results in physical illness or ~ he maintenance of heal th. Training grants bring together a critical mass of investigators, often from a variety of d~ scinlines, who can direct then r research efforts mutual ly to questions of common concern. Further, training grants strengthen the research setting through a continuity of support that fed lowships do not provide. In short, the re search-t~aining grant assures the development of inr.ova' ive research ~ hrough program stability, just as it assures the maintenance of programs in established research fief ds, such as child development, crime and delinquency, minors by group needs, or culture and health. In addition to research traineeships, the Committee recommends the maintenance of research training support through the individua ~ f ellowship. By providing f or individual awards, the Committee believes that important flexibi~ ity is introduced into the system of behavioral sci er.ce res earch and r" search training. It i s through thi s mechanism of support that tar ented investigators with special research needs can seek appropriate training, which a training grant may not provide. For example, the individual f=11 owship may Fermi ~ the predoctoral anthropologi st or en ho logist to gain important nonlaboratory re search experience, or it may permit the individual to seek special iced training with a single individual whose work has advanced an important re search area. R=commendat i on. The Committee recommends that the current proportion of 82 percent ~raineeships/~8 percent fed lowships be maintained. Priories y Fie Ids In approaching ~ he problem of priorities, the Committee reviewed recent Level op~rents in the behavioral sciences relevant to health problems. It appears that significant progres s has been made in both traditional areas o f research and in some of the newly emerging areas such as the role of 106
behavior as it results in physical illness or the maintenance of heals h. In an effort to foster an understanding of these emerging areas of research and to stimulate discussion concerning appropriate f cams of research training in the face of these developments, the committee invited a number of prominent researchers to address these topics at the ~ 977 annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of science (AAAS). The symposium provoked a wi d" range of comment s regarding training in techniques relevant to an understanding of the role of behavior in physical illness and health, and the application of ~ his knowledge to the diagnosis, prevention, treatment, and rehang litation of physical disorders. Mental dysfunctions that contribute to physical probI ems, such as severe weight loss associated with anorexia nervosa, are incl uded z~ this category, as well as behavioral factors in drug abuse and a l co ho l i sm. The Comma ~ tee sugge s t s ~ hat inve s ti gator s be trai ne ~ in the behaviora ~ science s to addre ss tines e c ritica l re s "arch problems . The term "behavior and health" is intended to strengthen but one aspect of the total behavioral research ef fort today. There is no doubt that the problems of mental health and human development remain fundamental research issues for behavioral scam enlists. The Committee views as a continuing priority the training of invest igators in these traditional areas, which are characterized by continued advances in our understands r.g of indivi dual and social behavior relevant to sound mental health. B ec au se o f ~ he ~ i f f iculty o f determining pr for iti e s in a rapi dly changing area, the Committee has concluded once again that member" of the scientific community, who take into account newly emerging needs and promising re search developments while developing research training proposals, are in the best position to determine the appropriate mix of f ields that will contribute to the training of skilled inve sti gator s i n the a rea of behavi or and hea Ith . The cormni~tee has concl uded, therefore, that it is not in a position at ~ his time to impose arbitrary restrictions on ~ he development of particular fields in the behavioral sciences by specifying fi elds for priority support. The Committee recognizes the close s imilarity between trains ng for research in the behavioral sciences and training in health serve ces '~search, because the methods and personne ~ of the behavioral science s contribute to the conduct o f h faith service s re search as def ined els ewhere ~ see Chapter 6 ~ . Neverthe le s s, the committee vat ew s i ts recommendable ons in the behavioral sciences to exclude training for individua Is whose primary research problem addr es s es ~ he e f f ect ivene s s o f the tea Ith care system (including prove der behavior) to meet the health needs of the individual or the populate on. This latter area is 107
included in the numerical recommendable ons for health services research training. 108
FOOTNOTES 1. In both ~ he Bureau of Labor Statistics (1975) and the NSF ~ ~ 975c) reports, the ~ 980 Supply of Phi D. psychol ogress and social scientists was pro decked to be substantial ly anger ~ hen the demand for these personnel. 2. Responses from 577 persons who indicated that their doctorates were not in any of the behavioral f ields included in the survey taxonomy or who were employed in foreign cour ~ ries were not used in the tables that follow. 3. The low percentage for ~ 974 graduates apparen+1 y refit eats the impact from the impoundment of federal training and research funds in the preceding year. 4. Estimated from data coil ected in the 1973 and 1975 Survey of Doctorate Recipients (NRC, ~ 973, 19750) . 5 . Day a we' e teas ed on f ie ~ d- switching among the s e ~ of 2 4 behaviors ~ s chance specialtie s given in Appendix E ~ 4 . 6. Annual Ph.D. production figures include only degree recipients intending to enter the U.S. labor force. Approximately JO percent of the recent graduates have returned to foreign countries. 7. As mentioned in Chapter 3, Freeman (1977) found this measure to be a reasonably reliable indicator of the current state of the labor market. S. For the purposes of this analysis, the research component included all persons in the labor force who considered research JO be their primary or secondary work activity. 9. The retirement figure estimated here considerably exceeds the 1.3 percent estimate made by Allan Carter {1976} ~ 10. The average value Of F/S for behavioral Ph.D. 's from 1961-75 was 0.025; in the biomedical sciences it was 0~030. This is consistent wi' h the finding of a correlation between F/S and R and D. expenditures in the biomedical sciences but not in the behavioral fief ds. The higher F/S vat ue is attributable to the greater participation in research by bi omega cal Ph. D. ' s . ~ ~ . Based on data from the NEC, Survey of Doctorate Recipients ~1 973, 19755) . 109
