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3. BASIC BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES The federal government sharply increased its suppor' of health-related research more than two decades age. Since ~hen, scientific research in all fields of the basic biomedical sciences has flourished to a degree that few could have foreseen. The rapid growth of biomedical research led to the expansion of federal programs for the support of graduate education and research training in these fields. Under these programs, many young scientists have beer drained for careers in biomedical research. However, evidence from several sources suggests that career employment opportunities for biomedical scientists may not be increasing as rapidly in the future. In its 1976 report (Chapter 3) the Committee concluded from the information available that basic biomedical science Ph.D.'s in the next few years were likely to encounter increasing difficulty in finding employment in the academic sector that fully utilizes their research training. In reaching this conclusion, several pertinent reports were considered, including two forecasts of the markets for Ph.D. scientists done by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (1975) and th" NSF (1975c). Also examined were data from NRC surveys on recent trends in factors affecting the labor markets. The Committee found information from all of these sources helpful, but, because of major differences in the numerical projections, it was felt that more detailed investigations were required. AS mentioned in Chapter 1, many new data have been compiled this year, and more comprehensive analyses of both the current and prospective labor markets for biomedical scientists have been completed. Summaries of these analyses are presented in this chapter. CURRENI EMPLOYMENT OF RECENT PH.D. ' S In assessing future needs for research personnel in the basic biomedical sciences, the Committee began by examining data on the current employment of recent Ph.D. recipients in this area. It seemed reasonable to expect that changing conditions in the labor market might first be noticed in shifts in the employment situations of those who had just entered that marke'. Findings from the Committee's survey 35

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of ~ 971-75 Ph.D. recipients in basic biomedical fields provided inf ormation about six specific aspects of their current employment situations: ~ 1) percentage with ful ~ empl oyme--, (2) types of positions he1 d, (3) changes -~ n the number of postdoctoral appointment s and other temporary positions, (41 Mobil ity among training and employment fief ds, (5) uti lization of research training in their current jobs, and (6} employment opportunities for personnel rained ~n different fields. Responses were obtained f rom 5, 575 (72 percent} of the 7, 784 biomedical graduates surveyed. ~ From these . responses, esti mates were derived for the total population of approximately ~ 4, 300 persons who received doctorates in basic biomedical fields between 1971 and ~ 975. A prep iminary investigation of the characteristics of persons who did not respond to the survey revealed no import ant biases. ~ Findings from the survey indicated the 4_ all but a f ew biomedical Ph. D. recipients were employed in ful1-time Positions or her ~ postdoctoral study appointments. Results In Table 3. ~ summarizing the current employment status of ~ hose recipients and their employment history since graduation specifics ly showed: . At the t ime of the survey {October ~ 97 6), 9 4 percen ~ of the ~ 971-75 graduates held regular ful 1-time positions or postdoctoral Spot n=~ments; less than 2 percent of the graduate s wer e unemployed and seeking jobs. An average of almost 92 percent of the 1971-75 graduates' total time (in months} since earning the Ph. D. had been spent ei' her in regular full-tirre espy oym~nt or on a postdoctoral appointment; 1 ess than 2 percent of these gradual es' time had been spent unemployed and seeking a j ob. No evidence was found To indicate that 1975 Ph.D. recipients were having more difficulty in finding positions than 1971- 74 graduates. In fact, only ~ percent of the 1975 graduates were unemployed and seeking jobs at the tine of the survey. The types of positions held by recent Ph.D. recipients were quite similar to those held by older members of the biomedical labor force. Tn its 1976 report (Chapter 3), the committee estimated that approximately two-thirds of the Ph.D. labor force (including postdoc+-orals) in this area were employed in the academic sector and that most of these scientists spent at least some time in research. The 36

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TABLE 3.1 Employment Status of 1971-75 Biomedical Ph.D. Recipientsa Empl oyment status (as of October 1976J - Fiscal Year of Doctorate Total 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 . . . TOTAL ~ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Postdoctoral appointment % 20.0 5.5 7.7 15.9 26.5 43.7 Full-time employment % 74.0 88.6 85.4 78.4 67.9 50.5 Part-time employment % 1.6 1.7 2.1 2.4 0.8 1.1 Seeking employment % 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.1 Other status % 2.7 2.5 2.6 1.5 3.2 3.5 Survey item responses N 4429 725 769 801 841 1293 Estimated total Ph.D.'s N 14288 2792 2842 2799 2982 2873 Average time since receipt of doctorate spent in: TOTAL % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Postdoctoral appointment % 37.4 25.9 29.2 35.3 42.4 53.3 Full-time employment % 54.3 67.6 62.8 55.1 49.0 38.0 Part-time employment % 2.4 1.7 2.6 3.0 2.5 2.0 Seeking employment % 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.5 2.2 Other status % 4.5 3.8 4.4 5.0 4.6 4.6 Survey item responses N 4378 718 756 790 831 1283 Estimated total Ph.D.'s N 14288 2792 2842 2799 2982 2873 ~See Appendixes B1 and B2 for comparable data in each of the basic biomedical fields specified in the survey taxonomy. bIncludes students and others who were unemployed and not seeking employment. SOURCE: NRC, Survey of Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists, Washington, D.C., 1976. 37

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Comm~tee's survey of 1971-75 Ph.~. recipients confirmed this estimate (Tables 3.2 and 3.3~: . Approximately 68 percent of these graduates were employed by universities, four-year colleges, medical schools, or other professional schools. An average of more than 55 percent of the graduates' time was spent in research activities, and another 23 percent in teaching. Almost 90 percent of the graduates devoted at least some time to research. Of those doing some research, nearly al' considered their work to be directly (59 percent} or indirectly (36 percent} related to health, and 63 percent received support for their research face NIH or other federal sources. A comparison of the employment situations of 1975 graduates and earlier doctorate recipients revealed a significant increase in the percentage taking postdoctoral appointments (Table 3. 4) . The ma jority of those who have taken such appointments stated that they did so ~ n order to obtain adds Kiowas research expert ence. This recent increase in postdoctoral study has provided both better qualif fed re search personne ~ and greater opportunities f or recent graduates to contribute to the tote l biomedica l re search effort. In fact, although postdoctoral appointees constituted only one-fourth of the 1971-75 Ph. D. recipients employed in academic institutions, they accounted for more than 42 percent of the tote' time devoted to research by this group (Table 3. 5) . However, the Commit tee was troubled by indications that many now hol ding pcstdoctoral appointments or other temporary positions may have cliff iculty in finding tenured positions in the future. As summarized in Tabs es 3.5 and 3. 6, survey results showed: In addition to the 25 percent on postdoctoral appointees, another ~ 9 percent of the ~ 9 7 ~ - 7 5 graduates employed in the academic sector held positions not considered to be in a tenure track (costs y doctoral research sear f ) . 38

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TABLE 3.2 Employment Sector and Work Activities of 1971-75 Biomedical Ph.D. Recipients Type of employer or postdoctoral affiliation Fiscal Year of Doctorate Tray nees/ Fe, 10W8b 1971 L972 1973 1974 1975 TOT" S 100.0 (100.0) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Educational institution % 70. 2 ( 73. 9) 69.9 67.6 70.3 69.9 72 .9 University/college % 29.8 ( 27.6) 30.0 30.4 31.8 28.0 28.9 Medical school . % 30. 9 ( 36 e 7) 30. 5 27 ~ !; 29 ~ 6 32. 7 34 e 1 Other health professional school % 7~2 ( 8~0) 7~8 7~1 6~9 6~7 7~5 Other educational institution 95 2~2 ~ 1~7) 1~6 2~6 1~9 2~4 2~4 Government % 11.4 ~ 9 7) 10. 1 13 . 2 11. 0 11. 2 11. 5 Feaera1 government % 9.? ( 8.3) 8.0 11.4 8.8 10.1. 10.1 State or local government % 1.7 ( 1.5) 2.1 1.8 2.2 1.2 1.4 Business/industry % 11.7 ( 10.5) 15.0 11.7 11.9 11.8 8.4 Pharmaceutical firm % 4.3 ( 4.0) 6.7 4.3 3.7 3.8 3.0 Other business or industry % 7.5 ( 6.5) 8.3 7.4 8.1 8.0 5.4 Other organizations ~ 6.7 t 5.9) 5.0 7.5 .6.8 7.0 7.2 Hospital or clinic S 2.8 ( 2.3) 1.S 2.3 4.0 3.0 3.1 Other types (including non-profit) % 3.9 ( 3.6) 3.5 5.2 2.9 4.1 4.1 Survey item responses N 4200 ( 2087) 690 723 770 791 1226 Estimated total employed N 13671 t 6139) 2676 2709 2706 2840 2740 Average time spent in: TOTAL % 100.0 (100. 0) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100. 0 100.0 Research and development ~ 55~5 ( 59.8) 50.6 50.3 52.0 57.7 66.4 Teaching % 23 ~ 5 ( 21. 6) 27 ~ 0 26.1 26. 2 21 ~ 7 16 ~ 9 Management and administration % 11. ~ ( 9.1) 13 ~ 7 13. 2 10e 9 10. 8 7 ~ 2 Consulting % 2~8 ( 2~5) 2~6 2~7 3~4 2~5 2~7 Other professional services % 5.4 ( 5.2) 4,5 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.4 Other activities % I.7 ( L.8)- 1~6 2~3 1~8 1~4 1~4 Percent of employed Ph.D. 's involved in some research ~ 89. 5 ( 91. 0) 91.1 89.8 88. 9 87 .8 89. 9 Survey item responses N 4160 t 2066) 681 710 761 786 1222 Estimated total employed N 13671 ~ 6139) 2676 2709 2706. 2840 2740 aSee Appendixes B3 and B4 for comparable data in each of the basic biomedical fields specified in the surrey taxonomy. bInclu~s all biomedical Ph.D. recipients who received predoctoral training grant or fellowship support fram NIB r ADAMHA r am BRA. SOURCE:: NBC' Survey of Biamedic-1 and Behavioral Scientists, Washington, D.C., 1976. 39

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TABIE 3.5 Tenured and Postdoctoral Positions currently Held by 1971-75 Biomedical Ph.D.'s in the. Academic Sectora Fiscal Year of Doctorate Total 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Type of academic position Train % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100. 0 Tenured % 12.0 28.0 16.3 10.3 4.0 2.7 Tenure track % 43.8 46. 3 53. 7 49.9 43. O 27. 5 Postdoctoral appointment ~ 25 . 0 6. 4 10.1 19 . 8 33 . 2 52 . 4 Outer nontenured Be 19 . 3 19 . 3 19 .-9 20 . 0 19 . 7 17 . 4 Survey item responses N 2882 480 471 529 533 869 Estimated total employed in academic sector N 9463 1843 1789 1890 1968 1973 Fraction of total research time contributed by posedoceb 0.424 0.118 0.191 0.356 0.532 0.733 aSee Appendix B12 for comparable data in each of the basic biomedical fields specified in the survey taxonomy. Computed as follows: {X ~ Y /Xt Yt) where: Xp = total graduates on postdoctoral appointments Yp = average percentage of time these postdocs devote to research Xt ~ total graduates employed (including postdocs) Y. ~ average percentage of time all employed graduates devote t to research SOURCE:: NRC, Surrey of Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists, Washington, D.C., 1976. 42

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TABLE 3.6 Postdoctoral Appointments Currently Held by 1971-75 Biomedical Ph.D.'sa Fiscal Year of Doctorate 1971 1972 1973 Current pos~doctorals appointees who: Prolonged present appt. because of difficulty in f inding job Held present appt. longer than 36 months % 50. ~ 68.6 59.1 % 78.4 71.8 62.0 Survey items responses N 35 S7 114 Estimated total postdocs. N 153 220 445 See Appendix B13 for comparable data in each of the basic bio- medical fields specified in the survey taxonomy. Data for 1974-75 Ph.D.'s have not been reported since they could not have held postdoctoral appointments more than two years. SOURCE: NRC, Survey of Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists, Washington, D.C., 1976. 43

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. More than three-f if the of the ~ 97 ~ -73 graduates holding pcstOcctoral appointments at the time of the survey indicated that they had prolonged their appointments because of dif f iculty in f inding suitable employment, and 24 percent had he, ~ postdoctoral appointments longer than three years. During a period ~ ~ 972-75) when the number of biomedical Ph.D' s awarded annually had increased very little, the Rota number 0 f persons holding postdoctoral appointments expanded at an annua l rate of more than 13 percent. This rapid growth (from 3,039 appointees in 1972 to 4,455 in 1975) 3 came as a result of increases in both the number of graduates taking postacctorals and the ~ ength of these appointments . It i s apparent that rapid expansion in the number of pa st doctors ~ app o i ntment s ha s provi deaf many r e ce nt graduate s with ~ emporary positions that fully utilized their research training . The Commi ttee cone luded, however, that such expansion cannot and should not couth nue in the future. As noted in Chapter 2, survey f indings also provided evidence of considerable mobility among basic biomedical fields . . A total of 3 9 percent of the 1 97 1-7 5 graduates we re empl aye ~ or he ld pa stdoctoral appoi ntment s in f i elds outside their doctoral specialties, and less than 70 percent considered their employment fields closely related to their Ph. D. specialties (Table 3. 7) . Most of the f ield-switching has been from one biomedical specialty to another. Only percent of the recent graduates had moored into fields outside the biomedical science area, and less than 5 percent felt that their employment f ields were not at all related to their doctoral training. These findings confirmed the Committee's general impression that individuals with doctoral training in a basic biomedical field are often qualified to move into many other biomedical fields with minimal, if any, formal retraining. It is not possible, from the ana lysi s ava i lable, to make a more def initiate statement about f ield- switching or to state the limitations of this generalization. Biomathematics~biostatistics and epidemiology stood out as important exceptions. These are largely methods f ields and individuals with doctoral training in these fields can be involved in a wide variety of activitie s and still consider themselves to be working within their doctoral fields. Survey findings reveal ed that 81 percent of the 44

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TABLE 3.7 Relevance of Current Employment or Postdoctoral Appointment Specialty to Doctorate Specialty of 1971-75 Biomedical Ph.D. 's Fiscal Year of Doctorate Total 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Empl owed in: TOTAL % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100~0 Ph.D. specialty field % 61.0 61.6 60.4 60.4 64.3 58.2 Other biomedical field % 31.4 32.6 32.5 30.8 28.0 33.6 Other field % 7.6 5.8 7.1 8.9 7.7 8.2 Ph.D. field and employment fief d were considered TOTAL % 100.0 100.O 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Closely related % 69 7 70.8 68.5 71.3 68.9 69.3 Somewhat related ~ 25.7 25.2 26.4 23.6 26.3 27.1 Not at all related ~ 4.5 4.1 5.1 5.1 4.8 3.6 Survey item responses N 4167 684 717 765 781 1220 Estimated total employed N 13671 2676 2709 2706 2840 2740 Postdoctoral appointment in: TOTAL % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100. 0 Ph.D. specialty field Be 57.7 61.S 48.2 55.7 63.9 55.8 Other be omedical field % 39.2 32.4 50.9 41.9 33.6 40. 5 Other field 9~ 3.l 6.1 0.9 2.5 2.6 3.6 Ph.D. field and postdoctoral fiel d were considered TOTAL % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Closely related ~ 68.6 79.1 55.0 71.2 69.5 68.3 Somewhat related % 29.0 20.9 40.4 26.5 28.3 29.4 Not at all related ~ 2.3 0.0 4.6 2.2 2.3 2.3 Survey item responses N 940 34 57 113 198 538 Estimated total postdocs. N 2862 153 220 445 789 1255 .See Attendees Bl5 and B16 for comparable data in each of the basic . biomedical fields specified in the survey taxonomy. SOURCE: NRC, Survey of Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists, Washington, D.C., 1976. 45

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ENP ICHMENT Historically, biomedical faculties have included many persons whose highest degrees were the M. S. or even B. S., especially at two-yea' colleges, community colleges, and secondary schools . In the future, however, as long a s there i s an abundance of Ph. D . ' s seeking faculty positions, there would be a tendency to fill faculty openings with Ph.D. 's rather than with persons without doctorates--a pro ces s that has been termed "enrichment. " The NSF (1975c} has found that this is what has actually occurred in four-year colleges and universities. In its report on doctorate supply and utilization the NSF states: - since analyses of 1969-73 employment data of 4-year colleges and universities indicate that in net terms essentially all new faculty positions were filled by doctorates,...[our] models assumed that all of the growth and replacement of facul ty positions in these institutions will be fil lea by doctorates in each o f the s cience and e nginee ring f i e ld s . In view of these NSF findings, the trends observed up to 1975 in the number of Ph.D. ' s employed in cold eges and universities ~ s a result ~ of expansion and enrichment. Future enrichment depends on the number of non-Ph. D. ' s presently on cog ~ ege faculties in the biomedical sciences. The NSF (1975a, p. 6) \2 reports Mat in 1975 there were 3B, 000 biological scientists on college faculties, of which the Corrunittee estimates that about 29,000 were Ph.D. 's (Sue TabI e 3 . ~ 3 ~ . The r ~ are ~ here f ore some 9, 0 0 0 f a culty positions in the biomedical sciences occupied by non-Ph. D. ' s for who ch biomedical science Ph. D. ' s may compe' e. If, as expected, these posits ons become available e by attrition at the rate of ~ .3 percent Per year, this wou, ~ open up a maximum of ~ 00 additional positions annually for biomedical science Ph.D.'s in the near future. In addition to the 3B,000 biological scientists, 63,000 individuals were employed in 1975 in the medical sciences at colleges and universities, of which 45,000 (full-time and part-time) held professional doctorates (M.D., D.D.S., etc.) (NSF, 1975b}. Whether or not there is any potential for enrichment here is quite uncertain because the degree to which Ph.D.'S can substitute for M.D.'S on medical school faculties is Jargely unknown. In basic science departments there is probably a great deal of substitutability, but in clinical departments the degree o f substitute ab i lit y i s like ly to be much smaller. Apparen ~ ~ y ~ he mos t signi f i cant sector for which doctorate holders may increase their share of the academic labor market at the experts" of the nondoctorate focus ty is in the two-year colleges. The NSF pro jects an increase in 65

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the earl churns rate here of al most ~ O percent per year up to 1985. to It is no' clear that the s enrichment process would absorb all Ph.D. 's seeking academic appointments. That would ~ depend on the rate of faculty expansion in relation to Ph.D. production, salaries of Ph.D. 's relative to persons without doctorates, the willingness of Ph.D.'s to accept appointments in ~wo-year con leges, and the willingness of two-year colleges to accept Ph.D. 's. But the fact that many recent Ph. D. recipients have prolonged their postdoctoral study becaus e of dif f iculty in f inding suitable employment is an i nd' cation that the enrichment process cannot be totally relied on to provide the additional faculty post lions (perhaps 5 00 per year) that appear to be needed to absorb al' biomedical science Ph. D. 's who will te seeking academic careers. RECOMMENDATIONS Predoc' oral Training Levels In its deliberations, the Committee considered the survey data on employment and utilization, the manpower projections, the raped growth of the number of postdoctoral appointments, and the experience of its own members. The Committee concludes that the current level of Ph.D. production in the basic biomedical sciences is somewhat high and can be reduced in such a way as not to affect the quality of training. The Committee recognizes that there is always some uncertainty in projecting future needs. Predoctc~al ins+~=ut~onal training grant programs make a major contribution to the vigor and quality of American biomedical sciences . The Committee therefore also concludes that a sudden or dr ast i c re duc tion in thi s support would be extreme1 y unwed se. It is, of course, not possible e to rely wholly on reductions in federal support to achieve desired reductions in the number of new Ph. D. ' s. Many of the biomedical science gradual" students are not supported by federal fund s . Reducing f edera ~ Thai ning grants might even be counterproductive, given the evidence cited above that NTH trainees are more likely to remain in research and contribute to the advancement of science. The Committee therefore believes that it is imperative that all Persons connected with graduate education in the biomedical sciences be made aware of the current employment situation, the accumulation of postdoctoral trainees, and the Committee's forecasts of future opportunities (see the section-- "Acquisition and Dissemination of Employment/Utilization 66

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Informant on to Individual Applicants and Academic Departments" in Chapter 91. In its ~ 976 report, the committee recommended a ~ 0 percent reduction from the FY ~ 975 level in the number of federal ly funded predoctoral positions in the biomedical sciences for FY ~ 976, Chat is, a reduction from 6, 003 to 5, 40 0, as shown in Table 3. ~ 6. The number actual ly awarded fir. FY 1976 was much lower; in fact, only 4,449 awards were made. The Committee concludes that the number of biomedical doctorates awarded annually is still too high, and it now recommends a reduction in predoctoral awards to 4, 250 for EY 1979. This number amounts to a 20 percent decrease from the ~ 976 reco~runended levee and a reduction from the actual awards for FY ~ 976. The Committee believes it is unwise at this time to recommend larger reductions in predoctoral support. Recommendation. The number of NIH,ADAMHA/HRA awards in the basic biomedical sciences shout d be reduced to 4, 250 by FY 1979, a reduction of 20 percent from the FY 1976 level recommended by the Committee and a reduction of about 5 percent from the actual number of awards for FY ~ 9 76. Postdoctoral Training T evels Postdoctoral support is needed for the continual on of the advanced research training that is essential for a healthy re search community . Thi s training doe s not add to the si ze of the doctoral labor force in the biomedi Cal s ciences, but it does increase and redistribute technical ski' Is as well as provide research opportunities. The Committee believes the number of postdoctoral awards recommended in its ~ 976 repo rt was suf f icient and the level should remain constant O In contrast to the predoctoral situation, the actual eve ~ of po s tdoct ore ~ awards cla s si f ie ~ in the bi omed ice scat Incas area f or FY ~ 976 exceeded the Commit ~ ee recommendations, with 3, 767 actual awards as compared with 3, 200 recommended. It is possible that some of these addi ~ tonal postdoctoral awards should properly be classified ire the clinical sciences, as is suggested by the large reductions that occurred in postdoctoral support i n that area in FY ~ 976. Before the aggregate number of postdoctoral awards i ~ reduced, the agencies are urged to reexamine la st year ' s ciassi f ication of tines e awards to determine whether some should be rec. assified under the cat inical sciences. If reductions are made, they should be carried out in phases and in a way that avoids eliminating current programs. 67

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TABLE 3.16 Committee Recommendations for NTH and ADAMHA Predoctoral and Postdoctoral Traineeship and Fellowship Awards in the Basic Biomedical Sciences Fiscal Year Agency Awards and Committee Recommendations 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 Actual awards Tot&1 9199 8216 Pre 6003 4449 Post 3196 3767 1976 recommendations Total 8600 8600 8600 Pre 5400 5400 S400 Post 3200 3200 3200 1977 recommendations Total 7450 7450 7450 Pre 4250 4250 4250 Post 3200 3200 3200 FY 1976 awards were reported in 1977 subsequent to the release of the 1976 report of the Committee. 68

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Recommendation. The number of federally funded postdoctoral awards in the basic biomedical sciences should remain constant at 3,200 for FY 1979. Training Grants and Fellowships As in its 1976 report, the Committee recommends that the NIH support for pre doctoral students remain primarily through institutional training grants which play a special role in basic biomedical research training. The long-range nature of these grants enables departments to plan effectively and JO provide the stability and cohesiveness necessary for the establishment of an environment for high-quality research training. With these training grants, the aggregate of trainees over a period of time make more efficient use of concentrated resources, such as faculty and research equipment. Most of the NIH predoctoral training grants awarded under the authority of the NRSA Act are now multidisciplinary in nature. These multidisciplinary training grants are especially useful in the support of multidisciplinary fields, such as toxicology and nutrition. However, as discussed in Chapter 9, the Committee believes that in some cases, single discipline training grants are more appropriate. Although training grants are the preferred mechanism far establishing the environment for high-quality predoctoral training, there is also a place for pre doctoral fellowship awards. Results of the Committee's survey of recent doctorate receipts indicated that 15 percent of the biomedical graduates received predoctoral training support from federal sources other than NESA. The Committee believes that opportunities should exist for students to obtain funding that allows them to attend institutions and departments that do not have NIH training grant support. The NSF predoctoral fellowship program provides important support for this purpose. The Committee recommends again this year that NIH support of postdoctoral training be predominantly in the form of individual fellowships. Postdoctoral training is undertaken on an individual basis, with less reliance on the department as a whole. A postdoctoral scientist is intensely involved in a research problem, usually working directly with one or two senior scientists. As a fellow, the young scientist has a wide choice of research fields, institutions, departments, and mentors. Recommendation. The Committee recommends that institutional training grants be the primary mechanism for 69

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MESA support of predoctoral students in the basic biomedical sciences. Support of postdoc+oral ~raining, on the other hand, should ups lize primarily the mechanism of individual fellowships. Priority Fields for Research Training The Committee believes that continued emphasis on quality and breadth of fundamental training is vital to scientific graduate education. In responding to the HESA legislation, the co~runittee ha s attempted to ident~f y priori ty f ields of spec ial emphas i s f or re search training. However, f ield- switching data (see Table 3. 7) support the previous cone fusion that identif ication of specific fields for prio rity conside ration should not be made at the predoctoral level. The high mobility from Ph. D. fields to employment fields found in the early stages of the careers of biomedical scientists would make it difficult to target training at the predoctoral level even if the Committee thought it wi se to ate empt to do so . Two except i on s a re the f i e Ids of biomathemat i c so bi o s tati sti c s and ep idem i ology . Few graduate s have ~ ef t these fields, few hold postdoctoral positions, and few have encountered Tiffs cur ty in finding employment. In fact, it appears that many positions in these fields have been filled by graduates from other fields, such as statistics, that are out s ide the biomedical scier~ces . The Commit ~ ee recommends that the predoc~oral support for these two fields not be reduced and that it continue at no less than the preser~t love 1. As a result of the high f ield mobility In the basic biomedical sciences, the Committee recor~unends that the NIH not identify specific fields or subject matter for predoctoral training in its announcement, except for the two fields mentioned above, and award staining grants in health- related f ields based on merit. However, in those cases where the agency conch uded that it is desirable to describe in i ts announcement f ie Ids of predoctoral training that are of special interest to particular institutes, the Committee believes that the announcement should state explicitly that no field or sub ject matter which is within the broad area of the biomedical or behavioral sciences is excluded from consideration (see "Announcement Fief ds" in Chapter 9} . The committee has carefully examined the available data for all fields ideal if fed in the basic biomedical science taxonomy in an attempt to specify priority fields for training at the postdoctoral level. In a subsequent discussion of the public meeting, it is noted that several speakers asked that their field be given special consideration for priority research training support. Those fields, as well as others, were examined by the Committee. 70

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Differences among the indicators do Occur and are useful in characterizing the field. It appears that there are no grea ~ shortages in any of these individual fields and that national needs for research training are being met by the present system of se lection. The Conunit-ee concludes that specific numerical recommendations by field are not advisable because: (~) fields in the basic biomedical sciences do not exhibit large differences, as measured by the utilization and employment indicators of the survey of recen' Ph.D. recipients; (2) fields in the basic biomedical sciences cannot be disaggregated; and (3) specification by field should be based on expert judgment about future needs, while the Committee's survey assesses only the current market situation. As discussed earlier, some fields have better than average employment and utilization characteristics. It is rot possible to choose a single list, because different criteria give somewhat different results. In the absence of definitive criteria for specifying postdoctoral priority f i elds, no conclusions should be draw at this time. The Committee plans further analyst s to determine whether priorities for postdoctoral research training should be spec i f fed in the future . Recommendation. The Committee finds a continuing need for trained research scientists in all fields of the basic biomedical sciences. At the predoctoral level, ideate fication of specific basic biomedical science for research training should be eliminated f rom the NIH announcement, with training grants awarded on the basis of merit. Biomathematics~biostatistics and epidemiology are exceptions, and support for these two f i e l ds shout d cant inue at no le s s than the pre s ent levy ~ . In the event the NIH concludes it is desirable to indicate in its announcement special f ielas of interest for predoc~oral training, the Committee recommends that the agency, within the limits of the biomedical sciences or behavioral sciences, state explicitly in the announcement that no specific fig eld or sub ject matter is excluded from consideration (see "Announcement Fields" in Chapter 91. At the postdoctoral level, there is no basis for denying support in any field since field-switching is very high and the employment evidence is not sufficiently conclusive at this time to be the basis for science policy decisions. The Committee recommends that the agencies make postdoctoral awards on the basis of merit within their broad statutory mi ssions. * * ~ 71

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Pa el at ea -0 the preceeding al scussi on on pr iority training in the basic biomedical sciences are three issues that arose f rom the public meeting. The f irst issue concerned the impact of new health and safety legislation upon manpower needs in the basic biomedical sciences. One recent example e of this is the anticipated future need for boxy colog~sts resulting from enactment of the Toxic Su be tanc e s C ont ro ~ Act a na othe r f e der a ~ s tatute s regu ~ a t i ng the safety of consumer products. It was suggested that the requirement of a "manpower impact statement" for each piece of new 1egis lati on would allow better manpower planning. The Commi tt e e re cogn iz e s that manpower n ee a s ar e a irect ly affected by such developments as legislation, but does not wish to reco~runend that a "manpower impact statement" be made mandatory to accompany all new legislation. In its deliberation on manpower needs, the committee has considered al, aspects of the problem that were addressed at the public meeting, including that of the impact of new legislation. Th e Committ" e do e s agree, however, that gr adua te s tudents and academic departments should remain fully aware of legislative trends in detennin~ng the future specific needs of the country and anticipates that the f ielas of environmental health and toxicology wi 11 provide opportunities for biomedical scientists. The s eco na i s sue aro s e f rom the te st imony pr es ent e a to the Committee by the Chairman of the Second Ta sk Force f or Research Planning in Environmental Health Science. The report of the task force, which was later forwarded to the Committee for its consideration, included a section on research training in environmental health science, which emphasized the need for stability in the training programs; the role of postdoctoral awards; and personnel needs in the fields of environmental health science and toxicology, pathology, and epidemic logy. The Corrunittee also discussed these issues and will continue to examine the results of this and other studies that fall within its area of responsibility, but does recommend the report of this task f orce to the rea d^r with a s pecia] interest in environmental health sciences. The third issue concerned statements made about special needs for research training in certain fields of the basic biomedical scat Fences. Representatives of the following fields asked for special consideration in training level support: microbiology, pathology, pharmacology, toxicology, and the experimental biological sciences. AS discussed previously, the Committee considered all fields carefully in the course of its deliberations. The Committee is of the opinion that no shortages occur at present and that the available data do not document the claims of special needs for the fields in whose behalf statements were made. The committee again requests the submission of data to support anecdotal statements of shortages in these and other fief ds, 72

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on the basis of which future recommendations for special emphasi s can be made . i . .. 73

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FOOTNOTES 1. As explained in Appendix C, responses from 1,636 indi vidua l s who Audi cate d ei ther that they were employed in foreign countries or that they received doctoral training in fields other Chars the basin biomedical specialties specified in the survey taxonomy have not been included in the findings reported. 2. The only persons found to have a signify cantly low rate of response to the survey were foreign scientists, many of whom were bed ie~red to have returned to their own countries. {see Appendix C. ~ 3. Based on data from the NRC, Survey of Doctorate Recipient s (NRC, ~ 97 3, ~ 9756} . 4 . It shou ~ ~ b ~ noted that the f iner the subdivi s ion s of fields within a bread area, the more likely it is that evidence of field- switching will be observed. 5 This fraction was somewhat lower for pubic c health graduates, many of whom have taken a~nin~strative positions in government for which doctoral tray ning was apparently usef us but not required. 6. Comparable data for other basic biomedical fields may be found in Appendixes B1, B9, B15, and B17. 7. In this report, Ph. D. production f iguanas exclude degree recipients who indicated a commitment for employment in a foreign country after graduation since few were expected to return to enter the U. S. ~ abor force. Approximately ~ O percent of the graduates in recent years left this country. S. In his study, Freeman (1977) found this measure to be negative ~ y correlated with Pennant indicators such as ~ and D e xpenditure s and pa s it ive ly c oared ated with s upp ly indi caters. 9 . Throughout this report, persons holding postdoctoral appointments were not considered to be part of the current labor force. 10. This rel ationship is as follows: F/S = 0.02199 ~ 9. 726 X ]0-3 (LS~D_2), where F = bioscience Ph.D. 's employed in academic institutions, S = estimated graduate and undergraduate enrollment in bioscience and health professions including medical and dental schools, and LSRD_2 = life science R and D expenditures in colleges and university ies, lagged two years (billions of ~ 967 5) . Because of dif fulgences in taxonomy these variables are not exact ly comparable in terms of area s covered. However, they 74

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are approximations to the ideal quantities and are probably quite closely corre, ated with them. . The replacement of non-Ph. D. faculty with Genre chment) is no' explicitly included in this is discussed later in the chapter. Ph. D. ' s analysis but ~ 2 . compari son between data developed in the Comma ttee ' s surveys and those reported by the NSF are complicated by di fferences in taxonomy. The NSF usually reports data in the Life sciences, including agriculture, biological, and medi Cal s ci ence s . The Commi tte e ' s data were c o l lected on a survey that used somewhat dif ferent definitions. ~ 3. The NSF def ines enrichment as an increase in the share of ~ of a ~ employment represen ~ ed by doc ~ orates . Thus, the doe' ore' e share of total employment in two-year colleges is pro jected to increase by 6 . 6 percent per year under the static model and by 9.9 percent per year under the probable motlel. See NSF ~ ~ 97 5c, p. 6) . 75