APPENDIX H

PROCEDURES USED TO ESTIMATE AWARDS, STIPENDS, AND COSTS

ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT PROGRAM SIZE

Table H-1 summarizes the distribution of awards by field and level and type of award for the fiscal years 1992-1999. 1 Increases are concentrated in the behavioral sciences, oral health, nursing, and health services research and in the Medical Scientist Training Program (MSTP). In addition, some postdoctoral awards in the clinical sciences have been reallocated to the predoctoral MSTP program. 2

The number of fiscal year 1993 awards by field was estimated from statistics provided by NIH. The number of awards for FY 1994-1996 were estimated in several steps. The FY 1996 awards were first scaled to reflect the committee's recommended changes. These are summarized in Table H-2. 3 The awards for fiscal years 1997-1999 remain unchanged at FY 1996 levels, reflecting the committee's recommendations for stable award levels once their recommended award levels were reached.

STIPENDS

The committee also recommended steps to raise stipends to make them more competitive with other programs and to maintain the purchasing power of these stipends by adjusting them for inflation. Specifically, the committee recommended:

  • raising the real value of stipends by FY 1996 to more competitive levels: approximately $12,000 per year in 1994 dollars for predoctoral awards and approximately $25,000 for new postdoctoral awardees with less than two years of research experience; and

  • maintaining the real value of these stipends after FY 1996 through annual increases of three percent per year (the assumed annual rate of inflation).

Table H-3 summarizes the results of implementing the committee's recommendations with respect to stipend increases. The 1994 levels reflect NIH recommendations— an increase of $1,200 for the predoctoral awardees and $1,000 for the first two steps of the postdoctoral awardees. Using 1994 as a base and assuming an annual rate of inflation of 3 percent, the committee derived recommendations for 1996 stipend levels for predoctoral awardees ($12,731) and for postdoctoral awardees with less than 2 years of research experience ($26,523 and $27,623, respectively). The 1995 stipends were derived by linear interpolation between the 1994 and the 1996 levels. Stipends rise between 1994 and 1996 by about 12.5 percent per year for predoctoral awardees and by about 16.3 percent per year for postdoctoral awardees with less than one year of research experience to bring their levels to the targets set by the committee. The rate of increase moderates after 1996 and reflects only the three percent per year inflation increase recommended by the committee.

Because of the relatively low current level of stipends for postdoctoral awardees with less than two years experience, the stipend levels of postdoctoral awardees with two or more years of experience remained unchanged in fiscal years 1994-1995. But after fiscal 1995 these stipend levels had to be adjusted in order to prevent “inversion”—i.e., a situation in which the stipend of less-experienced postdoctoral awardees is greater than the stipend of more-experienced postdoctoral awardees. This was accomplished by raising the stipend level of all postdoctoral awardees by the same amount.

ESTIMATING INCREMENTAL STIPEND COSTS

The committee has developed incremental cost estimates for these recommendations. These incremental costs reflect only the recommended changes in the number of awards and the stipend levels.



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APPENDIX H PROCEDURES USED TO ESTIMATE AWARDS, STIPENDS, AND COSTS ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT PROGRAM SIZE Table H-1 summarizes the distribution of awards by field and level and type of award for the fiscal years 1992-1999. 1 Increases are concentrated in the behavioral sciences, oral health, nursing, and health services research and in the Medical Scientist Training Program (MSTP). In addition, some postdoctoral awards in the clinical sciences have been reallocated to the predoctoral MSTP program. 2 The number of fiscal year 1993 awards by field was estimated from statistics provided by NIH. The number of awards for FY 1994-1996 were estimated in several steps. The FY 1996 awards were first scaled to reflect the committee's recommended changes. These are summarized in Table H-2. 3 The awards for fiscal years 1997-1999 remain unchanged at FY 1996 levels, reflecting the committee's recommendations for stable award levels once their recommended award levels were reached. STIPENDS The committee also recommended steps to raise stipends to make them more competitive with other programs and to maintain the purchasing power of these stipends by adjusting them for inflation. Specifically, the committee recommended: raising the real value of stipends by FY 1996 to more competitive levels: approximately $12,000 per year in 1994 dollars for predoctoral awards and approximately $25,000 for new postdoctoral awardees with less than two years of research experience; and maintaining the real value of these stipends after FY 1996 through annual increases of three percent per year (the assumed annual rate of inflation). Table H-3 summarizes the results of implementing the committee's recommendations with respect to stipend increases. The 1994 levels reflect NIH recommendations— an increase of $1,200 for the predoctoral awardees and $1,000 for the first two steps of the postdoctoral awardees. Using 1994 as a base and assuming an annual rate of inflation of 3 percent, the committee derived recommendations for 1996 stipend levels for predoctoral awardees ($12,731) and for postdoctoral awardees with less than 2 years of research experience ($26,523 and $27,623, respectively). The 1995 stipends were derived by linear interpolation between the 1994 and the 1996 levels. Stipends rise between 1994 and 1996 by about 12.5 percent per year for predoctoral awardees and by about 16.3 percent per year for postdoctoral awardees with less than one year of research experience to bring their levels to the targets set by the committee. The rate of increase moderates after 1996 and reflects only the three percent per year inflation increase recommended by the committee. Because of the relatively low current level of stipends for postdoctoral awardees with less than two years experience, the stipend levels of postdoctoral awardees with two or more years of experience remained unchanged in fiscal years 1994-1995. But after fiscal 1995 these stipend levels had to be adjusted in order to prevent “inversion”—i.e., a situation in which the stipend of less-experienced postdoctoral awardees is greater than the stipend of more-experienced postdoctoral awardees. This was accomplished by raising the stipend level of all postdoctoral awardees by the same amount. ESTIMATING INCREMENTAL STIPEND COSTS The committee has developed incremental cost estimates for these recommendations. These incremental costs reflect only the recommended changes in the number of awards and the stipend levels.

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TABLE H-1 Committee Estimates of Training Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel, by Field, Level and Type of Award, 1992 - 1999   Year Field and type of award 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Biomedical Sciences 8,687 9,007 9,007 9,007 9,007 9,007 9,007 9,007 Predoctoral awards 4,777 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 5,171 Fellows 290 360 360 360 360 360 360 360 Trainees 4,487 4,811 4,811 4,811 4,811 4,811 4,811 4,811 Postdoctoral awards 3,910 3,836 3,836 3,836 3,836 3,836 3,836 3,836 Fellows 1,550 1,533 1,533 1,533 1,533 1,533 1,533 1,533 Trainees 2,360 2,303 2,303 2,303 2,303 2,303 2,303 2,303 Behavioral 857 1,021 1,147 1,274 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400 Predoctoral awards 534 672 748 824 900 900 900 900 Fellows 53 68 76 83 91 91 91 91 Trainees 481 604 672 741 809 809 809 809 Postdoctoral awards 323 349 399 450 500 500 500 500 Fellows 65 71 81 92 102 102 102 102 Trainees 258 278 318 358 398 398 398 398 Clinical (non MSTP) 3,012 2,974 2,975 2,918 2,860 2,860 2,860 2,860 Predoctoral awards 819 855 895 895 895 895 895 895 Fellows 19 29 20 20 20 20 20 20 Trainees 800 826 875 875 875 875 875 875 Postdoctoral awards 2,193 2,119 2,080 2,023 1,965 1,965 1,965 1,965 Fellows 64 68 80 110 160 160 160 160 Trainees 2,129 2,051 2,000 1,905 1,805 1,805 1,805 1,805 Clinical (MSTP) Predoctoral awards 806 822 889 955 1,022 1,022 1,022 1,022 Fellows 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Trainees 806 822 889 955 1,022 1,022 1,022 1,022 Postdoctoral awards 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fellows 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Trainees 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

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Nursing 257 236 340 420 500 500 500 500 Predoctoral awards 217 188 290 360 430 430 430 430 Fellows 142 112 195 240 285 285 285 285 Trainees 75 76 95 120 145 145 145 145 Postdoctoral awards 40 48 50 60 70 70 70 70 Fellows 12 12 15 20 20 20 20 20 Trainees 28 36 35 40 50 50 50 50 Oral Health 213 224 260 345 430 430 430 430 Predoctoral awards 77 97 125 210 290 290 290 290 Fellows 0 1 25 80 130 130 130 130 Trainees 77 96 100 130 160 160 160 160 Postdoctoral awards 136 127 135 135 140 140 140 140 Fellows 35 22 35 35 35 35 35 35 Trainees 101 105 100 100 105 105 105 105 Health Services 94 96 115 240 360 360 360 360 Predoctoral awards 35 30 55 180 300 300 300 300 Fellows 0 0 10 85 160 160 160 160 Trainees 35 30 45 95 140 140 140 140 Postdoctoral awards 59 66 60 60 60 60 60 60 Fellows 12 17 10 10 10 10 10 10 Trainees 47 49 50 50 50 50 50 50 Total 13,926 14,380 14,733 15,151 15,579 15,579 15,579 15,579 Predoctoral awards 7,265 7,835 8,173 8,595 9,008 9,008 9,008 9,008 Fellows 504 570 686 868 1,046 1,046 1,046 1,046 Trainees 6,761 7,265 7,487 7,727 7,962 7,962 7,962 7,962 Postdoctoral awards 6,661 6,545 6,560 6,555 6,571 6,571 6,571 6,571 Fellows 1,738 1,723 1,754 1,800 1,860 1,860 1,860 1,860 Trainees 4,923 4,822 4,806 4,756 4,711 4,711 4,711 4,711

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TABLE H-2 Recommended Award Levels for FY 1996, by Field Field Number of awards Biomedical 9,007 Behavioral 1,400 Clinical 3,994 non-MSTP 2,972 MSTP 1,022 Nursing 500 Oral Health 426 Health Services 360 Table H-4 summarizes the budgetary implications of these recommendations. The budget increases by $116 million between 1993 and 1999, a rise of 33 percent, or an annual rate of increase of 5.4 percent per year. The cost increase associated with the committee's recommendation to raise the number of awards is roughly one percent per year; the remainder, roughly 4.4 percent per year, is generated from the committee 's recommendation to increase stipend levels to more competitive levels and to maintain this competitiveness through automatic annual cost of living increases. The costs associated with the recommended increases in the number of awards and the stipend levels are also displayed in Table H-4. The estimated are displayed annually for the period 1993-1999 by type of award (i.e., predoctoral vs. postdoctoral, and fellowship vs. traineeship). Columns (5) and (6) summarize the effects of increasing the number of awards on the training budget. These estimates hold average training costs constant at 1993 levels. Thus, the cost changes reflect only changes in the number of awards recommended. Total training costs rise by roughly $22 million, or 6 percent between 1993 and 1999. The average annual rate of increase is less than one percent. All of the increases are concentrated in the years 1994-1996, the period over which the committee's recommendations are implemented. Practically all of the cost increase occurs in predoctoral awards, reflecting the committee's recommen TABLE H-3 Recommended Stipend Levels, 1993-1999   Predoctoral Postdoctoral Awards by Number of Years of Research Experience Year Awards 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1993 $8,800 $18,600 $19,700 $25,600 $26,900 $28,200 $29,500 $30,800 $32,300 1994 $10,000 $19,600 $20,700 $25,600 $26,900 $28,200 $29,500 $30,800 $32,300 1995 $11,365 $23,061 $24,161 $25,600 $26,900 $28,200 $29,500 $30,800 $32,300 1996 $12,731 $26,523 $27,623 $29,062 $30,362 $31,662 $32,962 $34,262 $35,762 1997 $13,113 $27,318 $28,418 $29,857 $31,157 $32,457 $33,757 $35,057 $36,557 1998 $13,506 $28,138 $29,238 $30,677 $31,977 $33,277 $34,577 $35,877 $37,377 1999 $13,911 $28,982 $30,082 $31,521 $32,821 $34,121 $35,421 $36,721 $38,221 dation for reallocation from postdoctoral to predoctoral awards. The incremental costs associated with both the recommended increases in awards and stipends are displayed in columns (14) and (15). Incremental costs, summarized in columns (8)-(10), are derived by multiplying the recommended stipend increases by the number of awards affected by these increases. Recall that, for the years 1994 and 1995, the recommended stipend increases were awarded only to postdoctoral awardees with two or less years of research experience. The average fraction of postdoctoral awardees with two years or less in 1993 and 1994 was used to estimate the number of awards affected by the recommended stipend increase for fiscal year 1995. 4 For subsequent years it was assumed that all postdoctorates were affected. These incremental costs are cumulated in columns (11)-(13). The costs of the recommended stipend increases are summarized in Table H-5. These increases will cost an estimated $94 million—roughly 26 percent of the 1993 training budget and 81 percent of the $116 million cost increment associated with all of the committee 's recommendations. On an annual basis, these increases will average out to be roughly 4.4 percent of the 1993 budget, concentrated mainly in the years 1994-1996. The annual increases for the years 1997-1999 are roughly 2.5 percent per year. NOTES 1. These numbers exclude NRSA support for research training through the MARC program and training in Primary Care Research. 2. In particular, 200 postdoctoral traineeships in the non-MSTP clinical sciences programs are reallocated to predoctoral traineeships in the MSTP program. 3. The scaling-up was accomplished by linear interpolation in the behavioral and MSTP programs. The rate of increase for the other fields reflected the Committee's judgment about the capability of the training system to absorb these increases. The increases by type of award within fields also reflects the Committee's wish to increase the relative importance of predoctoral awards in the clinical sciences and in oral health and health services research. 4. Individuals with more than two years of research experience constituted about 37 percent of the postdoctoral fellows and roughly 30 percent of the postdoctoral trainees in FY 1992.

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TABLE H-4 Estimated Cost of Awards and Stipend Increases, 1993-1999 Predoctoral programs   Awards Total cost (in thousands) (at 1993 stipend levels) Change in Total cost Stipend Incremental cost of stipend increase (in thousands) Cumulative cost of stipend increase(in thousands) Total cost Percent Year Fellow (1) Trainee (2) Fellow (3) Trainee (4) Total (5) (percent) (6) increase (7) Fellow (8) Trainee (9) Total (10) Fellow (11) Trainee (12) Total (13) (in thous.) (14) change (15) 1993 570 7,265 9,908 141,115 151,023   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 151,023   1994 685 7,487 11,907 145,427 157,334 4.18% 1,200 822 8,984 9,806 822 8,984 9,806 167,141 10.67% 1995 868 7,727 15,088 150,089 165,177 4.98% 1,365 1,185 10,547 11,732 2,007 19,532 21,539 186,715 11.71% 1996 1,046 7,962 18,182 154,654 172,835 4.64% 1,365 1,428 10,868 12,296 3,435 30,400 33,834 206,670 10.69% 1997 1,046 7,962 18,182 154,654 172,835 0.00% 382 400 3,041 3,441 3,834 33,441 37,276 210,111 1.67% 1998 1,046 7,962 18,182 154,654 172,835 0.00% 393 411 3,129 3,540 4,245 36,570 40,816 213,651 1.68% 1999 1,046 7,962 18,182 154,654 172,835 0.00% 405 424 3,225 3,648 4,669 39,795 44,464 217,299 1.71% % change, 1993-1999   14.44%   43.88%   avg annual % change   2.41%   7.31%   Postdoctoral programs   Awards Total cost (in thousands) (at 1993 stipend levels) Change in total cost Stipend Incremental cost of stipend increase (in thousands) Cumulative cost of stipend increase (in thousands) Total cost Percent Year Fellow (1) Trainee (2) Fellow (3) Trainee (4) Total (5) (percent) (6) increase (7) Fellow (8) Trainee (9) Total (10) Fellow (11) Trainee (12) Total (13) (in thous.) (14) change (15) 1993 1,723 4,822 47,889 156,937 204,826   0 0 0 0 0 0 0 204,826   1994 1,754 4,805 48,751 156,384 205,134 0.15% 1,000 649 1,778 2,427 649 1,778 2,427 207,561 1.34% 1995 1,800 4,755 50,029 154,756 204,785 -0.17% 3,461 2,305 6,089 8,394 2,954 7,867 10,821 215,606 3.88% 1996 1,860 4,710 51,697 153,292 204,989 0.10% 3,461 6,437 16,301 22,739 9,391 24,168 33,560 238,548 10.64% 1997 1,860 4,710 51,697 153,292 204,989 0.00% 796 1,481 3,749 5,230 10,872 27,917 38,789 243,778 2.19% 1998 1,860 4,710 51,697 153,292 204,989 0.00% 820 1,525 3,862 5,387 12,397 31,780 44,177 249,165 2.21% 1999 1,860 4,710 51,697 153,292 204,989 0.00% 844 1,570 3,975 5,545 13,967 35,755 49,722 254,710 2.23% % change, 1993-1999   0.08 %   24.35 %   avg annual % change   0.01%   4.06%  

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All programs   Awards Total cost (in thousands) (at 1993 stipend levels) Change in total cost Stipend Incremental cost of stipend increase (in thousands) Cumulative cost of stipend increase (in thousands) Total cost Percent Year Fellow (1) Trainee (2) Fellow (3) Trainee (4) Total (5) (percent) (6) increase (7) Fellow (8) Trainee (9) Total (10) Fellow (11) Trainee (12) Total (13) (in thous.) (14) change (15) 1993 2,293 12,087 57,797 298,052 355,849     0 0 0 0 0 0 355,849   1994 2,439 12,292 60,657 301,811 362,468 1.86%   1,471 10,762 12,233 1,471 10,762 12,233 374,702 5.30% 1995 2,668 12,482 65,117 304,845 369,962 2.07%   3,490 16,636 20,126 4,961 27,399 32,360 402,322 7.37% 1996 2,906 12,672 69,878 307,946 377,824 2.13%   7,865 27,169 35,035 12,826 54,568 67,394 445,218 10.66% 1997 2,906 12,672 69,878 307,946 377,824 0.00%   1,880 6,791 8,671 14,706 61,359 76,065 453,889 1.95% 1998 2,906 12,672 69,878 307,946 377,824 0.00%   1,936 6,991 8,928 16,642 68,350 84,993 462,817 1.97% 1999 2,906 12,672 69,878 307,946 377,824 0.00%   1,993 7,200 9,193 18,636 75,550 94,186 472,010 1.99% % change, 1993-1999   6.18%   32.64%   avg annual % change   1.03%   5.44%  

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TABLE H-5 Costs of Recommended Stipend Increases, 1994-1999 Year Predoctoral Postdoctoral Total Percent a 1994 $9,806 $2,427 $12,233 3.44 % 1995 $11,732 $8,394 $20,126 5.66 % 1996 $12,296 $22,739 $35,035 9.85% 1997 $3,441 $5,230 $8,671 2.44% 1998 $3,540 $5,387 $8,927 2.51% 1999 $3,648 $5,545 $9,193 2.58% 1994-1999 $44,463 $49,722 $94,185 26.47 a As a percent of 1993 training budget.

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