. "Appendix H: Procedures Used to Estimate Awards, Stipends, and Costs." Meeting the Nation's Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists: Committee on National Needs for Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 1994.
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TABLE H-2 Recommended Award Levels for FY 1996, by Field
Number of awards
Table H-4 summarizes the budgetary implications of these recommendations. The budget increases by $116 million between 1993 and 1999, a rise of 33 percent, or an annual rate of increase of 5.4 percent per year. The cost increase associated with the committee's recommendation to raise the number of awards is roughly one percent per year; the remainder, roughly 4.4 percent per year, is generated from the committee 's recommendation to increase stipend levels to more competitive levels and to maintain this competitiveness through automatic annual cost of living increases.
The costs associated with the recommended increases in the number of awards and the stipend levels are also displayed in Table H-4. The estimated are displayed annually for the period 1993-1999 by type of award (i.e., predoctoral vs. postdoctoral, and fellowship vs. traineeship).
Columns (5) and (6) summarize the effects of increasing the number of awards on the training budget. These estimates hold average training costs constant at 1993 levels. Thus, the cost changes reflect only changes in the number of awards recommended. Total training costs rise by roughly $22 million, or 6 percent between 1993 and 1999. The average annual rate of increase is less than one percent. All of the increases are concentrated in the years 1994-1996, the period over which the committee's recommendations are implemented. Practically all of the cost increase occurs in predoctoral awards, reflecting the committee's recommen
TABLE H-3 Recommended Stipend Levels, 1993-1999
Postdoctoral Awards by Number of Years of Research Experience
dation for reallocation from postdoctoral to predoctoral awards.
The incremental costs associated with both the recommended increases in awards and stipends are displayed in columns (14) and (15). Incremental costs, summarized in columns (8)-(10), are derived by multiplying the recommended stipend increases by the number of awards affected by these increases. Recall that, for the years 1994 and 1995, the recommended stipend increases were awarded only to postdoctoral awardees with two or less years of research experience. The average fraction of postdoctoral awardees with two years or less in 1993 and 1994 was used to estimate the number of awards affected by the recommended stipend increase for fiscal year 1995. 4 For subsequent years it was assumed that all postdoctorates were affected. These incremental costs are cumulated in columns (11)-(13).
The costs of the recommended stipend increases are summarized in Table H-5. These increases will cost an estimated $94 million—roughly 26 percent of the 1993 training budget and 81 percent of the $116 million cost increment associated with all of the committee 's recommendations. On an annual basis, these increases will average out to be roughly 4.4 percent of the 1993 budget, concentrated mainly in the years 1994-1996. The annual increases for the years 1997-1999 are roughly 2.5 percent per year.
1. These numbers exclude NRSA support for research training through the MARC program and training in Primary Care Research.
2. In particular, 200 postdoctoral traineeships in the non-MSTP clinical sciences programs are reallocated to predoctoral traineeships in the MSTP program.
3. The scaling-up was accomplished by linear interpolation in the behavioral and MSTP programs. The rate of increase for the other fields reflected the Committee's judgment about the capability of the training system to absorb these increases. The increases by type of award within fields also reflects the Committee's wish to increase the relative importance of predoctoral awards in the clinical sciences and in oral health and health services research.
4. Individuals with more than two years of research experience constituted about 37 percent of the postdoctoral fellows and roughly 30 percent of the postdoctoral trainees in FY 1992.