CHAPTER FOUR

BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES PERSONNEL

The United States leads the world in behavioral research, and there is now increasing recognition, especially among policymakers, that the solution to many of the worst problems facing the country are primarily behavioral in character. The behavioral sciences 1 yield knowledge to deal with many of these problems.

Behavior ranges from individual skills (for example, the lack of self-control implicated in violent behavior) to cognitive mediators of risky behavior (e.g., an individual's perceptions of invulnerability relative to risk-taking behaviors that affect health) to community-level phenomena (e.g., an individual's belief in the legitimacy of medical prescriptions derived from beliefs shared with a group). Every area of major health risk in this country can be informed by behavioral science research. Moreover, in some areas of great risk—such as child abuse, substance abuse and crime, and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)—large scale behavioral programs are being developed, and advances in demographic and population studies have enhanced our understanding of “longevity”.

Since issuing its first report on the National Research Service Awards (NRSA) program in 1975, the National Research Council (NRC) has strongly endorsed the continuation of support for research training in the behavioral sciences through the NRSA program. This occurred in recognition of the inclusion of the Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration (ADAMHA) in the restructured research training authority (P.L. 93-348). The behavioral sciences also received attention because of their critical role in exploring the underlying processes of normal human development and aging; for their role in outlining the causes, etiology, and treatment of diseases involving neurological and sensory processing; and for their role in prevention research. In October 1992 the research components of the three former institutes of ADAMHA joined the National Institutes of Health (NIH) signaling an historic shift (Goodwin, 1993) in the nation's view of the subtle interactions between changes in behavior and health and dysfunction.

Recommended levels of support in the behavioral sciences have been predicated on the belief that NRSA awards leverage the production of small numbers of highly skilled workers whose research is conducted in the national interest. Indeed, follow-up studies have found most former NRSA awardees actively engaged in research (see Appendix A).

The number of degree recipients having had NRSA support remains low and, therefore, does not drive the supply of behavioral science doctorates. Nonetheless, the committee this year has paid particular attention to the market for behavioral scientists for reasons related to the health of the overall behavioral research enterprise. As noted in previous (chapter 2 and chapter 3), the committee has replaced earlier committees' analyses of supply-and-demand models with the use of new techniques which involve multistate life table analysis of future supply and a separate assessment of short-term indicators of current and past market conditions.

The committee was gratified to learn, for example, that despite severe funding cuts in the early 1980s, behavioral scientists continue to find productive employment although overall Ph.D. production in these areas has slowed somewhat in recent years. Based on this information, and information gathered from a variety of other sources, we conclude that the demand for behavioral science personnel will grow slowly as a whole but that the few behavioral scientists receiving NRSA support can expect to enter into productive employment upon completion of their doctoral or postdoctoral studies.

While these analyses provide an important backdrop against which the committee's judgment about future needs



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CHAPTER FOUR BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES PERSONNEL The United States leads the world in behavioral research, and there is now increasing recognition, especially among policymakers, that the solution to many of the worst problems facing the country are primarily behavioral in character. The behavioral sciences 1 yield knowledge to deal with many of these problems. Behavior ranges from individual skills (for example, the lack of self-control implicated in violent behavior) to cognitive mediators of risky behavior (e.g., an individual's perceptions of invulnerability relative to risk-taking behaviors that affect health) to community-level phenomena (e.g., an individual's belief in the legitimacy of medical prescriptions derived from beliefs shared with a group). Every area of major health risk in this country can be informed by behavioral science research. Moreover, in some areas of great risk—such as child abuse, substance abuse and crime, and acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)—large scale behavioral programs are being developed, and advances in demographic and population studies have enhanced our understanding of “longevity”. Since issuing its first report on the National Research Service Awards (NRSA) program in 1975, the National Research Council (NRC) has strongly endorsed the continuation of support for research training in the behavioral sciences through the NRSA program. This occurred in recognition of the inclusion of the Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration (ADAMHA) in the restructured research training authority (P.L. 93-348). The behavioral sciences also received attention because of their critical role in exploring the underlying processes of normal human development and aging; for their role in outlining the causes, etiology, and treatment of diseases involving neurological and sensory processing; and for their role in prevention research. In October 1992 the research components of the three former institutes of ADAMHA joined the National Institutes of Health (NIH) signaling an historic shift (Goodwin, 1993) in the nation's view of the subtle interactions between changes in behavior and health and dysfunction. Recommended levels of support in the behavioral sciences have been predicated on the belief that NRSA awards leverage the production of small numbers of highly skilled workers whose research is conducted in the national interest. Indeed, follow-up studies have found most former NRSA awardees actively engaged in research (see Appendix A). The number of degree recipients having had NRSA support remains low and, therefore, does not drive the supply of behavioral science doctorates. Nonetheless, the committee this year has paid particular attention to the market for behavioral scientists for reasons related to the health of the overall behavioral research enterprise. As noted in previous (chapter 2 and chapter 3), the committee has replaced earlier committees' analyses of supply-and-demand models with the use of new techniques which involve multistate life table analysis of future supply and a separate assessment of short-term indicators of current and past market conditions. The committee was gratified to learn, for example, that despite severe funding cuts in the early 1980s, behavioral scientists continue to find productive employment although overall Ph.D. production in these areas has slowed somewhat in recent years. Based on this information, and information gathered from a variety of other sources, we conclude that the demand for behavioral science personnel will grow slowly as a whole but that the few behavioral scientists receiving NRSA support can expect to enter into productive employment upon completion of their doctoral or postdoctoral studies. While these analyses provide an important backdrop against which the committee's judgment about future needs

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for behavioral research personnel can be assessed, they represent but one of the several dimensions of “needs.” Cognizant of the important advances in behavioral research that promise to enhance the health and well-being of all citizens and confident that NRSA awardees will have the opportunity to contribute to the national health effort, the committee has concluded that the present modest program of NRSA support in the behavioral sciences should essentially double in the next few years. However, because of our concern with current low levels of stipend support, we have adjusted our goals to permit immediate expansion of training stipends throughout the NRSA program. We believe, however, that the national call for skilled behavioral science investigators should be answered swiftly and strongly through an increase in training support in this area. ADVANCES IN RESEARCH IN THE BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES The knowledge base in the behavioral sciences has reached the point where effective utilization of its findings by physicians, clinical psychologists, nurses, and social workers can have a very significant impact on health-related problems in our society. Advances in basic research in behavioral science dovetail well with national needs. This is a most exciting and intellectually stimulating time in behavioral science. Work on both basic and applied problems—and work done at many levels of analysis, from brain-behavior relations to the study of disease processes in human populations—is making great progress. We cite three examples in more detail to illustrate the intellectual excitement in the field. Health and Behavior Much of the social and behavioral research supported by the National Institutes of Health represents research on “health and behavior”. Current estimates place NIH support for research in this area at about 8 percent of total NIH R&D support (COSSA, 1994). The “NIH Implementation Plan for Health and Behavior Research ” (NIH, 1993) outlines, furthermore, what the Institutes and Centers consider to be optimal spending levels in this area during the next 5 to 10 years. Expanded support for research on health and behavior reflects an increasing recognition by the health research community that social and psychological factors play a significant role in the natural history of disease, prevention of disability and illness, and promotion of recovery. As the Director of NIH stated in a 1991 report on the same subject (NIH, 1991): Our research is teaching us that many common diseases can be prevented, and others can be postponed or well-controlled, simply by making positive life style changes. For these reasons, intensifying such research and encouraging all Americans to make health-enhancing behaviors a part of their daily lives has taken on more and more importance in our efforts to conquer disease. The domain of research on health and behavior is broad and the enormity of its knowledge base is daunting, but as Adler and Matthews (1994) suggest, many of the concepts in recent years pertain to three essential questions: Who becomes sick and why? Among the sick, who recovers and why? How can illness be prevented or recovery promoted? To facilitate the answers to these and other related questions, the NIH Reauthorization Act of 1993 established the Office of Behavioral and Social Sciences Research and called for a report to the U.S. Congress on the extent to which the Institutes of Health conduct and support research in the component disciplines. Because the Office is still being organized within the National Institutes of Health, Howard Silver and the staff of the Consortium of Social Science Associations (COSSA) recently prepared a detailed, although preliminary, summary illustrating NIH funding priorities in the area of health and behavior. For example, the COSSA summary notes that the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) supports a variety of activities— primarily through the Behavioral Medicine Branch—on disease prevention, etiology, diagnosis and treatment of cardiovascular diseases. The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), which is concerned increasingly with the transmission of AIDS, supports only a modest amount of social and behavioral research but has expressed interest in psychosocial factors affecting medical treatment of compliance. The National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, to give another example, supports research on the effects of environmental agents on human health and well-being with particular attention to behavioral and neurological effects of exposure to toxic substances. Variables that have been explored by research scientists over the years can be categorized in any number of ways, but include research on factors that arise from the social environment which contribute to disease. Such factors include: stress (Cox and Gonder-Frederick, 1992; Beardsley and Goldstein, 1993) or social isolation/social connectedness (Cohen, 1988; Reynolds and Kaplan, 1990). Individual dispositional factors are also thought to contribute to disease onset and recovery, such as: hostility/Type A personality (Siegrist et al, 1990; Matthews et al, 1992); depression/ exhaustion (Hahn and Pettiti, 1988; Markovitz et al, 1991); neuroticism and negative affect (Costa and McCrae, 1987; Salovey and Birnbaum, 1989); and optimism/self-esteem (Schreier and Carver, 1992; Brown and McGill, 1989).

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Advances in research on health and behavior often emerge from multidisciplinary studies involving social, behavioral and biomedical scientists including clinicians. As federal funding priorities increasingly emphasize research in this area, we can anticipate that new research training opportunities will emerge, perhaps requiring consideration of new research training arrangements which emphasize cross-disciplinary connections. Learning and Memory Memory is dissociated into processes or systems that are fundamentally different. For example, amnesic patients with brain injury or disease exhibit severe inabilities to recall and recognize recent events and have difficulty learning new facts. However, these patients possess some relatively intact learning and memory on tasks such as manual-dexterity learning, which they perform as well as do healthy and uninjured people, even though they may have no conscious memory of having performed the task before. This evidence—that some kinds of learning can proceed normally even when the brain structures that mediate conscious remembering are damaged—supports the general proposition that there are distinct, dissociated types of memory. Memory is an active process of seeking and reconstructing information, not a passive recording and reproducing of events. Thus, expectations of what things should look like or the way events should happen influence what people notice and remember. For example, after listening to a story presented in jumbled order, people still tend to remember it as being told in proper sequence, following certain widely accepted scenarios for what constitutes a story. People also tend to pay little attention to the details of routine situations. Consequently, people often remember that the most probable things happened even when they did not. This phenomenon has been demonstrated in the context of eye-witness court testimony. Memory of an event can be modified or distorted by how questions about the event are posed. Such experimental findings have important theoretical implications for understanding the formal structure of memory and they have practical implications for legal proceedings. Recent progress in the broad field concerned with brain substrates of learning and memory (behavioral and cognitive neuroscience) has been impressive. The essential circuits and probable loci of memory traces have been largely identified and mechanisms are being characterized for several invertebrates (e.g., Clark and Schuman 1992; Kandel, 1976); for learned fear in mammals, including both behavioral and autonomic measures (amygdala) (Hitchcock and Davis, 1986; McGaugh, 1989); and for classical conditioning of discrete behavioral responses (skilled movements) in mammals, including humans (cerebellum) (Daum et al., 1993; Thompson, 1986). Progress is rapid in determining the role of the hippocampus and associated cortical areas in contextual-spatial and declarative memory (Meuner et al., 1993; O'Keefe and Nadel, 1978; Squire, 1992). A particularly important application of this basic research is in aging and Alzheimer's disease. The procedural memory system concerned with motor skill learning declines with normal aging, with concomitant loss of neurons in the cerebellum. Declarative or experiential memory shows only a modest decline in normal aging but a dramatic and profound impairment in Alzheimer's disease. The brain substrates of this declarative memory system (hippocampus and associated cortical areas) are particularly vulnerable and show progressive and profound deterioration in the disease. Thanks to the well-developed fields of learning and memory and abilities testing, we now have very sensitive diagnostic tools to identify the earliest stages of putative Alzheimer's and other dementias. Early childhood is a period rich in experience in which young children are capable of acquiring, registering, and recalling events and episodes as well as recognizing places and people. They can also vividly react to impressions, manifest pain and pleasure, and express love, jealousy, and other passions. It is thus astonishing that this period is usually lost to memory entirely except for a few fragments. Recent work in developmental-cognitive psychology and cognitive neuroscience suggests that infantile amnesia is not due to repression, as Freud hypothesized but rather occurs because of the length of time necessary to develop the requisite cognitive skills and the concomitant developmental schedule of the brain substrate of declarative (experiential) memory. The hippocampal and cortical memory system is not fully mature until about the age of 3 (Bachevalier, 1991). These data raise serious questions concerning the current rash of therapy- and hypnosis-related instances of patient accusations of infantile assault, based on presumed recovery of infantile memories (for example, Time Magazine, November 1993). Over and above the issue of suggestibility is the well-documented evidence that the original memory of an experience can be modified substantially long after the fact by how questions about the experience are phrased (Loftus and Loftus, 1976). Signal Detection and Medical Imaging Signal-detection theory is an outgrowth of behavioral science, first noted in the field of hearing. A fundamental problem in hearing is how to detect the presence of a signal in noise. Two extreme listener strategies are to respond positively with great uncertainty, leading to many false positive responses, and to respond positively only with great certainty, leading to many false-negative responses. In a brilliant mathematical and behavioral analysis, Swets,

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Green, and many other behavioral scientists developed a comprehensive theory of signal detection that makes it possible to establish probability levels of these two types of errors and to manipulate them by establishment of criterion levels of judgment (see, Green and Swets, 1966). The practical applications growing from this basic research have gone beyond sensory problems. Modern electronic and computer technologies for image enhancement have wide applications today, ranging from enhancement of space-probe images to brain imaging to computer-reading of X-ray films. Computational techniques combined with various medical imaging procedures are making it possible to see specific organs and internal body parts volumetrically and in ever-increasing detail. Computer-based imaging techniques include computed axial tomography, nuclear magnetic resonance imaging, positron emission tomography, and digital subtraction angiography. Some techniques, by assigning different degrees of transparency to different layers of bones and tissue, let the observer not only see them but look through them and see what lies within or behind them (Fitzgerald, 1989). Signal-detection theory has addressed the diagnostic power and cost effectiveness of these imaging techniques, relative to more conventional and less expensive X-ray technology (Swets, 1979 and 1988; Swets and Pickett, 1982; Metz, 1986). As medical imaging technology continues to develop, the need for studies evaluating the effectiveness of specific instruments and procedures will increase. This is so especially in view of the considerable cost of the equipment involved and because diagnostic images produced will not always be interpreted by image interpreting specialists but by physicians who view certain types of images only occasionally. There is a need also for the development and evaluation of procedures (including computer-aided procedures) to help clinicians, especially those with limited experience in image interpretation, to extract from medical images the diagnostically relevant information they contain (Getty et al., 1988; Swets et al., 1991). Another example of current practical application is the cochlear implant. This application, like many from behavioral science, is interdisciplinary in that it involves neuroscience, otology, physics, engineering, and behavioral science, specifically the psychophysics of hearing and methods of training. Signal-detection theory is one aspect of the broader field of decision theory, a set of well-developed methods to evaluate decision-making in situations where uncertainty is inherent. These methods have been applied, with considerable success, in a variety of medically related situations and have proved to be extremely helpful in improving training procedures that both accelerate training and increase the overall quality of medical diagnosis (Luce et al., 1989). A dramatic illustration of such an effect is given by McNeil et al. (1982), who asked people to imagine that they had lung cancer and had to choose between two therapies: surgery or radiation. Each therapy was described in some detail. Then, some subjects were presented with the cumulative probabilities of surviving for various lengths of time after each type of treatment. Other subjects received the same cumulative probabilities expressed in terms of dying rather than surviving (e.g., instead of being told that 68 percent of those having surgery will have survived after 1 year, they were told that 32 percent will have died). Framing the statistics in terms of dying dropped the overall percentage of subjects choosing radiation therapy over surgery from 44 percent to 18 percent. Of the three groups of subjects used in the study—patients, students, and physicians—this effect was found to be the strongest among physicians. ASSESSMENT OF THE CURRENT MARKET FOR BEHAVIORAL SCIENTISTS The labor market for researchers in the behavioral sciences was robust in the 1980s. The behavioral sciences work force increased by 35 percent between 1981 and 1991, climbing from approximately 49,000 to nearly 67,000 (Figure 4-1). 2 However, over half of this growth was accounted for by clinical psychologists, who are less involved in research and development (R&D) than are their nonclinical counterparts (Pion, 1993). 3 Although psychologists have been fully employed and utilizing their research skills in recent years, there has been a shift in employment prospects from nonclinical to clinical fields. Accompanying this growth were notable changes in the composition and employment distribution of these workers. Among these changes were the growing prominence of women and members of racial and ethnic minority groups and the increasing importance of the nonacademic sectors in providing employment opportunities. The latter change FIGURE 4-1 U.S. behavioral science employment, 1981-1991. See Appendix Table F-13.

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reflects in part the rapid employment growth of clinical psychologists, who are primarily employed in nonacademic positions. Women have been becoming an increasingly important component of the labor market for behavioral scientists. Nearly 40 percent of this work force was female in 1991 compared with 27 percent in 1981 ( Figure 4-2). The females tend to be concentrated in the younger age groups. About two-fifths of the female behavioral scientists were younger than 40 in 1991 compared with, at most, one-fourth of the comparable males.4 The U.S. work force has become more racially diverse over the years and the behavioral science work force also reflects these changes. In 1991 nearly 8 percent of employed behavioral science Ph.D.s represented individuals from a racial minority group (Table 4-1). In 1979 minorities represented about 4 percent of these Ph.D.s. Most of the growth occurred for blacks. The progress in ethnic di FIGURE 4-2 Fraction of the U.S. behavioral science work force who are women, 1981 and 1991. See Appendix Table F-13. versity is less dramatic. In 1991 Hispanics represented about 2 percent of the behavioral scientists. In 1979 the comparable statistic was roughly 1 percent. The behavioral work force is aging. The median age of behavioral scientists has increased from almost 40 in 1981 TABLE 4-1 Racial/Ethnic Composition of Employed Behavioral Science Ph.D.s: 1981 and 1991   1981 a 1991 b   Number Percent Number Percent Race         TOTAL 55,821 100.0 88,340 100.0 White 53,506 95.9 83,533 94.6 Black 1,102 2.0 2,590 2.9 Asian/Pacific Islander 1,013 1.8 1,924 2.2 Other (Incl. Native American) 200 0.4 293 0.3 Ethnicity         TOTAL 54,742 100.00 87,686 100.0 Hispanic 859 1.6 1,931 2.2 Non-Hispanic 53,883 98.4 85,755 97.8 a For those who responded in 1981. Race nonresponse was 222 in 1981 and ethnic nonresponse was 1,301. b For those who responded in 1991. Race nonresponse was 229 in 1991 and ethnic nonresponse was 883. NOTE: Employed behavioral science Ph.D.s are those with a behavioral science Ph.D. in behavioral science fields, regardless of employment field. Estimates are subject to sampling error. Comparisons between 1991 estimates and those of earlier years should be made with caution due to changes in survey methodology. Prior to 1991, the SDR collected data by mail methods only. In 1991, the survey had both a mail component and a telephone follow-up component. In this table, 1991 estimtes are based on “mail-only” data to maintain greater comparability with earlier years. Totals may not add up to 100 due to rounding. SOURCE: NRC, Survey of Doctorate Recipients. (Biennial)

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FIGURE 4-3 Median age of the U.S. behavioral science work force by gender, 1981-1991. See Appendix Table F-13. to a little over 43 in 1991 (Figure 4-3). In part, this reflects trends in degree production. The number of degrees awarded in the behavioral sciences actually fell for a period of time and showed no strong trend in the latter part of the decade. Over 95 percent of employed behavioral science Ph.D.s were U.S. citizens in 1991, unchanged from comparable numbers for 1981 (Figure 4-4). Almost all U.S. citizens in the behavioral sciences were native born, rather than naturalized (94 percent). On the basis of these data, we can conclude that immigration is not as important a source of supply to the behavioral sciences as it is to other fields, particularly the mathematical and physical sciences and engineering. The comparable 1991 numbers for all science and engineering fields were 93 percent for U.S. citizens and 83 percent for native-born citizens. 5 Postdoctoral appointments are less important in the labor market for behavioral scientists than for biomedical scientists. Fewer than 1 percent of the behavioral science work force were employed in postdoctoral positions (in contrast to 7 percent in the biomedical sciences). Proportionately FIGURE 4-4 Citizenship status of employed behavioral science Ph.D.s, 1981-1991. See Appendix Table F-14. more women than men held postdoctoral appointments (1 percent vs. 0.4 percent).6 The academic sector has not been as important as a source of employment for behavioral scientists in recent years as it has been for most other science fields. And it is becoming even less important. Most behavioral scientists were employed in settings outside the academic sector, with strong representation in industry and in hospitals and clinics. 7 As noted earlier, this reflects in part the inclusion of clinical psychologists in these statistics. Figure 4-5 details the trends. In 1981 roughly 55 percent of the behavioral scientists were employed in the academic sector. By 1991 FIGURE 4-5 Employment sector of the U.S. behavioral science work force, 1981-1991. See Appendix Table F-15. this percentage had fallen to 42 percent. The shift from the academic sector was almost entirely absorbed by the industrial and clinical sectors, which rose from 19 percent in 1981 to 32 percent in 1991. Degree Production and Career Patterns There are many sources of talent available to the market for behavioral sciences, and they operate in rather complex ways. The distinctive role of clinical psychologists further complicates interpretation of labor market data. The major source of new behavioral science talent has traditionally been our nation's university system, but some jobs in this

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market are filled by workers with degrees in closely related fields or in special Ph.D. programs of research in social work, nursing, and health services. Unlike the biomedical labor market, however, immigration does not appear to be a major supplier of talent. Degree Production The most readily available source of information describes degree production from U.S. universities, and the committee summarizes this information below. In contrast to the trends observed for the biomedical sciences, the data reveal a significant downward trend in degree production. The annual number of degrees produced in the behavioral sciences fell between 1981 and 1989, rose between 1989 and 1991, and declined slightly between 1991 and 1992. The net result was that degree production declined by about 12 percent (from 4,149 to 3,647) between 1981 and 1992 (Figure 4-6). This downward trend in degree production starkly contrasts with the increases experienced during this FIGURE 4-6 Behavioral science Ph.D. production, 1981-1992. NOTE: Data limited to U.S. citizens and permanent residents. See Appendix Table F-16. period by the biomedical sciences and by all fields of science and engineering. 8 Significant progress has been made in achieving gender diversity, and the behavioral sciences have been in the forefront of this movement. Women have represented more than half of this degree production since 1984 (Figure 4-7). The share of degrees granted to women increased from 44.2 percent to 58.7 percent between 1981 and 1992. Although total degree production in the behavioral sciences remained essentially unchanged during this period, the number of degrees granted to women rose 17 percent, from roughly 1,832 to about 2,142. Less progress has been made with respect to race and ethnic diversity, however. Whites constituted about 90 percent of degree production in 1981-1992 (Table 4-2). There were small increases in the shares awarded to Asians and Hispanics. The black share remained virtually unchanged. FIGURE 4-7 Fraction of behavioral science Ph.D. degrees earned each year by women, 1981-1992. NOTE: Data limited to U.S. citizens and permanent residents. See Appendix Table F-16. TABLE 4-2 Behavioral Ph.D. Production Over Time, by Race and Ethnicity     1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 Total N 4022 3765 3896 3743 3586 3572 3477 3383 3353 3610 3681 3594 White % 92.0 91.3 91.5 90.9 90.9 90.6 90.2 90.1 89.7 89.2 88.5 89.1 Black   3.9 4.2 3.8 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.4 3.9 4.1 4.0 4.6 3.9 Hispanic   2.3 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.7 1.4 4.2 4.0 Asian   1.6 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.3 2.0 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.4 Native American   0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.6 NOTE: Cases with missing data are excluded. Data limited to U.S. citizens and permanent residents. SOURCE: NRC, Survey of Earned Doctorates. (Annual)

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Unlike biomedical degree recipients, very few new doctorates are not U.S. citizens and there is no strong trend suggesting that this situation is changing. Roughly 94 percent of all new doctorates in the behavioral sciences were U.S. citizens in 1981. This figure had fallen to approximately 89 percent in 1992. As noted earlier, these statistics do not imply any large changes in the future composition of the behavioral science work force with respect to citizenship status (Figure 4-8). Career Patterns Given the objective of the NRSA awards—to produce research scientists—it is useful to have some notion of the number of years over the course of a career that these scientists remain engaged in R&D. The effectiveness of the program will vary with this number. As noted in Chapter 3, the Survey of Doctoral Recipients—a longitudinal survey that tracks doctorates in the sciences, engineering and hu FIGURE 4-8 Fraction of behavioral science Ph.D. degrees earned each year by U.S. citizens, 1981-1992. See Appendix Table F-17. manities biennially—provides useful information on employment patterns, including postdoctoral work. This survey has the potential for illuminating career patterns of behavioral scientists. Thus, the Panel on Estimation Procedures will examine more closely the feasibility of estimating such patterns. Market Conditions This section presents selected indicators of short-term market conditions, which include unemployment and underemployment rates, postgraduation commitments of new doctorates, and relative salaries. 9 Unemployment and Underemployment As noted in Chapter 3, the most commonly used short-term indicator of labor market conditions is the unemploy FIGURE 4-9 Unemployment rates for behavioral and physical sciences Ph.D.s, 1973-1991. See Appendix Table F-18. ment rate. It is not as meaningful as an indicator of these conditions for highly skilled workers, however. Because such workers are usually able to find jobs—even in times of weak demand—the issue is not whether the worker has a job, but whether the job is fully utilizing his or her skills. For this reason, the committee has also compiled information on underemployment: i.e., workers who are working part time but would prefer full-time jobs and workers who have jobs that are outside of science and engineering and who indicate they took these jobs because they could not find work in science and engineering. Figure 4-9 summarizes the unemployment rates. Given the recent publicity about the weak state of demand in the physical sciences, comparable rates for physical scientists are also included so that the reader can assess conditions in behavioral science labor markets relative to those in the physical sciences. Rates of unemployment have generally been in the range of 1 percent, with little variability. The rate of underemployment is also relatively low (Figure 4-10). FIGURE 4-10 Underemployment rates for behavioral and physical sciences Ph.D.s, 1973-1991. See Appendix Table F-19.

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Postgraduation Commitments Postgraduation plans of new doctorates may also reflect market conditions. In particular, the percentage of new Ph.D.s who indicate that they have definite commitments at the time they are completing their requirements for the degree can reflect the strength of demand. When demand is weak, this percentage will fall; when demand is strong, this percentage will rise. Figure 4-11 summarizes these plans for 1975-1992. To provide a comparative base, similar information is provided for degree recipients in the physical sciences, a field thought to be suffering currently from weak demand. The data reveal a declining trend in the percentage of new behavioral science graduates who report definite employment or postdoctorate commitments when they receive their degrees. In contrast the physical sciences display an upward trend for 1975-1981 and a slow decline beginning in 1981 FIGURE 4-11 Fraction of new behavioral and physical sciences Ph.D.s with definite commitments, 1975-1992. See Appendix Table F-20. that becomes more pronounced from 1989 to 1992 than the decline for behavioral sciences. These data suggest that the market was relatively stronger for behavioral scientists in the early part of this period but deteriorated and became relatively weak in more recent times. Starting Salaries Salaries are also considered to be a valid indicator of market conditions. The commonly accepted economic analysis of labor markets postulates a positive relationship between relative salaries and relative demand. This relationship is expected to be strongest at the entry point of a career, which typically occurs at around age 30 for behavioral scientists. Median salaries of employed behavioral science doctorates, age 30-34, who currently hold full-time positions (excluding postdoctoral positions) relative to comparable salaries of all employed science and engineering doctorates, age 30-34, are presented in Figure 4-12. 10 Since 1983 these salaries have been declining relative to those of comparable scientists and engineers in all fields. This supports the hypothesis that the relative demand for behavioral scientists has been declining. However, the behavioral sciences represent a heterogeneous collection of disciplines with quite diverse employment paths. Clinical psychologists, for example, have increased their numbers and typically pursue career paths in sectors other than academia. 11 Also, social scientists have for many years found research opportunities in business and industry, including self-employment. As a result of these differences in employment opportunities, starting salaries are likely to be influenced by “compositional” effects. Thus, these data must be interpreted with some caution. FIGURE 4-12 Salaries of behavioral science Ph.D.s (ages 30-34) who currently hold full-time employment positions (excluding postdoctoral positions) as a percentage of comparable salaries for all scientists and engineers, 1973-1991. See Appendix Table F-21. OUTLOOK FOR BEHAVIORAL SCIENTISTS A major goal of this committee is to estimate future needs for behavioral scientists. As noted earlier in this report, need can be defined in a variety of ways. In the context of the labor market, need has often been expressed in terms of job openings that must be filled to attain a particular employment objective. Selection of the specific employment objective to be reached is a policy decision usually made on normative grounds. Some job openings arise from deaths, retirements, and other forms of separation from the behavioral science work force. Other job openings are generated by growth in employment opportunities. All of these job openings may be filled by recruitment from many talent pools: new doctorates, experienced doctorates from other work forces or from outside the labor market (including doctorates from abroad), nondoctorates, etc.

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Given this broad context, the committee examines future employment conditions in an effort to estimate need (approximated by job openings) and our ability to meet this need (measured by new Ph.D.'s entering the behavioral sciences workforce). Because job openings can be filled by recruitment from a variety of talent pools, the reader is cautioned that the committee's indicator of our ability to meet this need represents a lower-bound estimate of this ability. Table 4-3 shows the future number of job openings in behavioral sciences to be filled under alternative scenarios about employment growth. Three scenarios are examined: zero growth; 3.0 percent per year (the 1981-1991 compound growth rate for the behavioral science work force); and 1.5 percent per year (one-half the 1981-1991 compound rate). As noted in Chapter 3, the method used to generate these estimates is a variant of demographic cohort-survival models. It generates flows of workers into and out of this work force and among the various employment states within this work force. On the basis of these flows, it generates estimates of changes in the size and composition of this work force. 12 There are, of course, many ways to do multistate life table analysis. The data presented below should be viewed as preliminary work by the committee, which will be explored further by the Panel on Estimation Procedures in the coming months. Average annual estimates are developed for three time periods: 1996-1997, 1998-1999, and 2000-2001. The estimates are quite sensitive to the growth rate assumption, varying from 1,404-1,512 for zero growth to 3,937-4,422 for 3.0 percent per year growth. The range is substantially narrower for a given growth rate scenario. The modest increases observed over time for a given rate of growth reflect TABLE 4-3 Committee Estimates of the Average Annual Number of Job Openings Needed to Sustain Various Growth Rates of the Behavioral Science Work Force a, b   Zero Growth Rate Scenario Half the Average Growth Rate Scenario c Average Growth Rate Scenario d Year Numbers Needed Numbers Needed Numbers Needed 1996-1997 1404 2592 3937 1998-1999 1441 2626 4076 2000-2001 1512 2780 4422 a Behavioral science work force consists of those employed or on postdoctoral appointments in a behavioral field. Data derived from the NRC Survey of Doctorate Recipients, a sample survey. b Based on multistate life table methods. See Appendix G for methodology. c Half the average referred to in footnote d or 1.5 percent. d Refers to behavioral work force's average annual compound growth rate over the past decade or 3.0 percent (3.5 percent, uncompounded). the widely anticipated increases in deaths and retirements in the late 1990s as this work force ages. Except for the zero-growth scenario, these increases also reflect the expected overall growth in the behavioral work force.13 For comparison, Table 4-4 shows the number of new behavioral Ph.D.s entering the behavioral work force in previous years, estimated from the longitudinal SDR (a sample survey). Note that these numbers represent only a fraction of the degree production that occurred in these fields, because a significant number of new graduates found employment in other fields or delayed entry into the work force. An estimated 73 percent of the behavioral Ph.D.s entered this work force during the period 1985-1990. This level of work force entry, if maintained, could more than meet the need for zero growth, but it will fall considerably short of the number needed to maintain recent growth rates. 14 It can be argued that maintenance of these recent growth rates for behavioral scientists is an unrealistic scenario. In the near future, universities are unlikely to increase faculty size dramatically, federal spending on behavioral research is not likely to increase in real terms, and private sector demand (viz., industry) is not likely to increase rapidly. The best predictions for economic activity and R&D funding in the near future suggest that demand for behavioral scientists will grow slowly at best. Under these circumstances, maintenance of the current rate of entry of Ph.D.s in the behavioral sciences should provide an adequate supply for the years 1996-2001. The NRSA program provides predoctoral support for nearly 600 individuals in the behavioral sciences, although only a fraction complete doctoral degrees in the same year

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TABLE 4-4 Estimated Number of New Behavioral Ph.D.s Entering the Behavioral Work Force in Selected Years. Year Number a 1985-1986 2932 1987-1988 2797 1989-1990 2973 a Annual averages. NOTE: The Survey of Doctoral Recipients is a sample survey and subject to sampling error. SOURCE: NRC, Survey of Doctoral Recipients. (Biennial) as receiving NRSA support. The number of behavioral degree recipients in any year having had NRSA support is unknown but presumed small.15 Even if current levels of predoctoral NRSA support are maintained, then the NRSA program will most likely produce behavioral scientists at a rate which future markets will absorb. Relationship Between Market Outlook and the Need for Behavioral Research Personnel The preceding analysis provides background information with which we can anticipate the experiences of behavioral scientists who will join the U.S. labor force in the coming years. NRSA support although important in the behavioral sciences represents, however, a small source of research training support for new Ph.D.s in this area. Because NRSA is such a small source of support, its effect on the aggregate supply of behavioral scientists will be small. Thus, the justification for the NRSA program in behavioral sciences must be based heavily on need factors other than those generated by aggregate market conditions. In this report, we have taken an important first step in adopting a new strategy for understanding aggregate changes in the market for behavioral scientists. We have concluded that, in the aggregate, behavioral scientists are experiencing only modest employment problems. From our global analysis of need associated with the growth in the national research agenda, we expect that NRSA award recipients in the behavioral sciences will continue to find employment. Further work is needed, however, before we reach a more satisfactory understanding of the specific needs and outlook for behavioral scientists engaged in health-related research in areas of special interest—the target group of the NRSA program. Moreover, in order to assess the impact of the program on NRSA awardees, career outcomes studies are needed. 16 Priority Fields The national environment for behavioral and social sciences has been variable during the past two decades (see, for example, Gerstein et al., 1988). For example, federal obligations for basic and applied research in psychology, sociology, and anthropology consistently declined throughout most of the 1970s, reaching a low of $286 million in 1982. 17 After that time it began to slowly inch back upwards until 8 years later, when it totaled $445 million (NSB, 1991). From 1985 to 1990, funds for basic research increased, on average, by $8.4 million per year, rising from $162 million to $204 million. The average annual increase in the applied research during that time was another $7 million, increasing its worth from $206 million to $241 million. Psychology has remained the primary beneficiary of federal support, accounting for 76 percent ($340 million) of the $445 million obligated in 1990, with commitments to sociology and anthropology of $93 million and $12 million, respectively. Societal Problems Despite the severe funding setbacks in the early 1980s, there is now increasing recognition that many of the worst problems facing this country are primarily behavioral in character and that these sciences possess important informarion to address those problems. The information that has accumulated over years of careful basic research is adequate to design developmental programs that have reasonable prospects for success. A key link in relating basic findings from the behavioral sciences to a wide variety of clinical and applied settings is the recruitment and training of high-quality people to carry out this linkage. Perhaps the single largest potential for doing this lies in the NIH pre-and postdoctoral fellowship

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program. Were these to be viewed by NIH as a major activity, surely university-medical school consortiums would design fellowship opportunities which would produce scientists well-trained both in aspects of the behavioral sciences and in the problems encountered in medical settings. NIH (as reconfigured in October 1992) has for many years offered multidisciplinary training opportunities in research related to the solution of such pressing social problems as substance abuse, violence, and the prevention of infectious diseases. However, because of competing but important developments in the biological bases of behavior, NIH has directed less attention to research training in the behavioral and social dimensions of physical and mental health than might be desired. It is the hope of the committee that expanded NRSA support in the behavioral sciences in the coming years will result in significant growth in the number of awards made for research training in the solution of social problems related to the health and well-being of all Americans. A Special Note on Clinical and Clinical Services Research Consideration should be given to enhancing federal support for training programs to produce clinical investigators (see Kraut, 1993, for suggestions). Currently, some monies are available to support mental health services research training, but few opportunities exist for supporting the production of behavioral science investigators in other problem areas (e.g., alcohol and drug abuse interventions and psychotherapy outcomes). Most clinical research training being sponsored by the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH), for example, is primarily oriented toward psychiatry; of the 35 clinical research training grants this year, only 5 are in psychology departments, with the remainder in psychiatry units. As a result of NIMH's reorganization in 1985, clinical training programs were relocated from the research divisions to the services component and now, with the movement of NIMH to NIH, are housed in the Center for Mental Health Services (CMHS) in SAMHSA. Although subsequent engagement in research fulfills the payback requirement for clinical training, only a small proportion of previously supported trainees actually utilized this option (13.2 percent of all individuals engaged in payback requirements between 1981 and 1993), and a sample survey of former trainees indicated that only a small fraction (1.8 percent) cited research as their current primary activity (CMHS, 1993). Furthermore, the clinical training budget totaled only $2.9 million in 1992 and is a candidate for elimination in congressional budget hearings. Previous recommendations regarding the interdisciplinary nature of conducting research in these areas (for both behavioral and clinical scientists), exposure to applied research settings during the training process, and methodological training are critical to promoting these areas. Clinical training programs are not always directed at research competence per se (understanding research so as to keep up with the literature vs. knowing how to do it). This is reflected by nearly half (48.6 percent) of all Ph.D.s and Psy.D.s awarded in clinical psychology in 1989 being from programs that emphasized the practitioner model rather than the scientist-practitioner model of training, up from 28.7 percent in 1979 (Pion, 1993). Even in programs that train students for research careers, the clinical training process itself, similar to medicine, is structured (of necessity) to meet the increasing demands of accreditation agencies whose aim is to ensure practice competencies but not minimal standards of research conduct. For example, the requirement of a predoctoral internship coupled with the need of postdoctoral clinical training to meet licensing requirements affects both interest in and ability to carry out research for both future clinicians and clinical faculty (many clinical training programs require their faculty to be licensed). Expanding the pool of clinical researchers can be accomplished in other ways by establishing specific programs (e.g., the program in clinical sociology at Yale) and by exposing nonclinical students in traditional disciplines to key substantive courses in prevention and treatment and research opportunities in settings where they work with clinicians on projects. For example, certain problems surrounding diagnostic accuracy and clinical decision-making can pose interesting research questions for cognitive psychologists and also lead to improvements in the application and teaching of these skills. Transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) can be better understood by the application of social network models and ethnographic studies, and models for interagency collaboration (e.g., resource dependency theory) can be examined by organizational psychologists and sociologists. In general, the issue of how best to produce clinical investigators has recently generated much attention, along with serious examination of how accreditation practices have adversely affected the production of clinician scientists (see the Accreditation Summit held in 1992 by the American Psychological Society). Aside from the question of exactly how many clinical researchers are needed, the data suggest that current programs are less successful than expected in producing researchers who can examine key clinical problems and clinicians who can incorporate the logic of research into their service-delivery activities. Concerted efforts are needed to identify the most appropriate strategies for the development of clinical researchers (perhaps through retrospective examination of previous trainees and pilot tests of innovative programs).18 Depending on the types of changes resulting from national health care reform (e.g., the changes in service delivery settings, practitioner responsibilities, and practitioner au-

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tonomy as a result of managed care), opportunities for clinical and clinical services research in these settings may expand along with the attractiveness of research careers. ENSURING THE DIVERSITY OF HUMAN RESOURCES The characteristics of the graduate student population have changed significantly since the 1960s. Thirty years ago the flow of women into and through doctoral programs, regardless of discipline, was exceedingly modest, with only 10.7 percent of the 9,733 doctorates awarded in the United States earned by women. Beginning in the early 1970s, however, the number and proportion of women doctorate recipients rose dramatically. By 1991 it had more than tripled, to 13,765, accounting for 36.8 percent of all new doctorate recipients (Ries and Thurgood, 1993). This marked growth occurred in nearly every broad field of inquiry, particularly the behavioral sciences. This pattern, however, has been a product of differential trends in gender participation across disciplines. First, there was a dramatic upsurge in the number of women earning doctoral degrees, which was a product of the substantial growth in the pool of women eligible to earn the doctorate in all fields. Second, the pool of eligible men has remained relatively stable or undergone some erosion, and this is reflected in the number being awarded doctoral degrees, which has been steadily shrinking. Whereas the same percentage of women baccalaureates (approximately 3 percent) has gone on successfully to earn the doctorate, the proportion of men who enter and complete doctoral programs dropped from 10 percent to 4 percent during this same period. Consequently, the flow of women into the graduate training pipeline has increased, but the stream of men subsided from its early-1970s level. Other factors aside (e.g., the quality of baccalaureate training), the recent upsurge in the awarding of baccalaureate degrees suggests a larger pool of candidates who may be potentially interested in pursuing advanced degrees in these areas. It also suggests that if current patterns persist, the composition of the graduate student population will change accordingly (see following section). Among current freshmen, interest in the social and behavioral sciences has increased, with much of the growth attributable to females. In 1990, 55 percent of all freshmen intending to major in a science or engineering field chose psychology or one of the social sciences as compared with 39 percent in 1983 (NSF, 1991). Given that freshmen intentions have signaled trends in baccalaureate production, graduate training programs can expect the pool of prospective applicants to have, at least in the short term, a large proportion of women, and although more ethnically diverse than many other science and engineering fields, to remain sparsely populated by people of color. Ethnic minority representation has remained relatively stable, with about 1 of every 10 graduate students being Black, Asian, Native American, or Hispanic. The recruitment and retention of ethnic minorities has been and remains an important concern. In addition, the long-term implications of shifting gender distributions have come under review (e.g., APA Task Force on the Changing Gender Composition of Psychology), with available research suggesting that differences exist in career tracks and advancement. Although often each difference is reasonably small, the results are cumulative advantages and disadvantages that appear gender-specific (e.g., Hornig, 1987; Long, 1990; Zuckerman, 1987). Such disparities do not work toward maintaining the health and vitality of the investigator pool, and well-designed research studies investigating the antecedent factors for choosing and pursuing a research career are urgently needed. THE NRSA PROGRAM IN THE BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES For operational purposes, the committee created—and first reported in 1975—a tentative taxonomy of behavioral science research fields using the departmental classification scheme of the Doctorate Records File maintained by the NRC. Throughout its tenure the committee continued to define the behavioral sciences as psychology, anthropology, sociology, and speech and hearing sciences because these were the fields most closely involved in investigating health problems. In its earliest reports, the committee presented the labor market outlook for Ph.D.s in the behavioral sciences as a whole, without distinguishing fields. In 1978 the committee, realizing that the analysis of the labor market was hindered by treating the behavioral sciences as a single entity, separated the data into clinical (clinical psychology, counseling and guidance, and school psychology) and nonclinical (nonclinical psychology, anthropology, sociology, and speech and hearing sciences) fields. This disaggregation enabled the identification of divergent market trends within the behavioral sciences. For its 1985 report the committee decided to carry the disaggregation one step further and divided the nonclinical fields into nonclinical psychology and other behavioral sciences. This step yielded three behavioral science subdivisions: clinical psychology, nonclinical psychology, and other behavioral science fields (sociology, anthropology, and speech pathology and audiology). With this additional level of disaggregation, substantial differences among disciplines and education levels (graduate and undergraduate) began to emerge in the 1980s. For example:

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undergraduate enrollments in psychology were not subject to the decline experienced by the other behavioral fields; graduate enrollments in psychology declined less than those in other behavioral science fields; the decline in R&D funding occurred in behavioral fields outside of psychology; academic employment continued to grow, but the increases were concentrated in the fields outside of psychology: sociology, anthropology, and speech pathology and audiology; and although the number of behavioral scientists on postdoctoral appointments rose, the number of nonclinical psychologists with postdoctoral appointments fell to its lowest level since the committee began monitoring these data. In general, the committee's recommendations for behavioral sciences personnel were consistent throughout the 1970s with respect to the numbers of trainees and fellows supported, level of dollars expended, and distribution of awards between predoctoral levels. The core of the recommendations was, within the framework of a constant dollar level of support, to redistribute awards in the behavioral sciences from the traditional predoctoral emphasis (70 percent/30 percent, predoctoral to postdoctoral) to one of postdoctoral emphasis (70 percent/30 percent, postdoctoral to predoctoral). The committee recommended that this transition be completed by fiscal year 1981. The rationale for the recommendation was that the less favorable labor market for behavioral scientists, especially in academia, dictated a decrease in predoctoral support whereas the growing sophistication of behavioral research in the area of health warranted an increase in postdoctoral support. During the early 1980s the committee reported that a shift in emphasis to postdoctoral training awards had occurred, but not in the gradual and orderly manner recommended. Instead, the ratio had moved slowly toward a higher postdoctoral concentration because of a sharp decline in predoctoral awards and a level of postdoctoral support that had risen between 1975 and 1977 and then remained basically constant through 1981. Although the ADAMHA had supported the committee's recommendations and made strong efforts to implement them, significant external impediments had prevented ADAMHA's ability to respond more rapidly: overall funds available for research training grants and fellowships had lost ground to inflation, mandated increases in stipend levels in fiscal year 1980 meant that fewer pre- and postdoctoral students could be supported, and professional institutions had been slow in broadening their emphasis to include more postdoctoral training positions. The committee in its 1983 report recommended that despite some necessary budgetary reductions, some training support must be preserved in the health-related behavioral and social sciences and directed to the highest quality programs. The recommended shift in emphasis from predoctoral to postdoctoral awards was reaffirmed, but some numerical modifications were necessary because of budgetary constraints. The committee recommended that predoctoral training should remain at the 1981 level (about 650 awards) whereas postdoctoral support should increase only modestly from the 1981 level (about 350 awards) to about 540 awards by 1987. By the mid 1980s the committee was reporting an academic labor market for behavioral science Ph.D.s that was expanding at a moderate rate of growth. However, most of the growth had occurred in the field of clinical psychology. This finding caused the committee concern from the standpoint of the federal government's research program because most clinical psychologists work outside the academic sector and do not contribute to the research effort. Also of concern to the committee was the continuing decline of R&D funding and the observation that graduate enrollments and Ph.D. production in nonclinical fields were beginning to decline whereas those in the clinical fields were continuing to increase. However, the committee noted that a substantial number of behavioral science courses were being taught to graduate students at professional schools—public health, law, medicine, nursing, social work, and business— which would tend to increase the demand for behavioral scientists. Recommendations in 1985 were for 450-790 predoctoral trainees per year and 460-800 postdoctoral trainees per year. The committee also strongly endorsed the continuation of the training grant mechanisms as a way of improving the quality of graduate education in the behavioral sciences at the predoctoral and postdoctoral levels. It was recommended that training grants should be the predominant mechanism of support, with an 80 percent/20 percent ratio of traineeships to fellowships. Finally, in its 1989 report, the committee projected that the labor market for behavioral scientists would be fairly stable. It recommended that the level of predoctoral and postdoctoral support be kept at their current levels of approximately 500 and 420 positions, respectively. Given the low level of research involvement by clinical psychologists, the committee recommended moving support away from clinical psychology and toward nonclinical psychology and other behavioral sciences. RECOMMENDATIONS Total support for research training in the behavioral sciences increased slightly from about 902 awards in fiscal 1991 to an estimated 1,069 awards in fiscal 1993 (Table 4-5). Most awards are offered as institutional training grants

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TABLE 4-5 Aggregated Numbers of NRSA Supported Trainees and Fellows in Behavioral Sciences for FY 1991 through FY 1993 Fiscal Year     Type of Support Level of Training TOTAL Traineeship Fellowship 1991 Number of awards 902 775 127   Predoctoral 519 472 47   Postdoctoral 338 258 80   MARC Undergraduate 45 45 - 1992 Number of awards 908 790 118   Predoctoral 534 481 53   Postdoctoral 323 258 65   MARC Undergraduate 51 51 - 1993 Number of awards 1,069 930 139   Predoctoral 672 604 68   Postdoctoral 349 278 71   MARC Undergraduate 48 48 - NOTE: Based on estimates provided by the National Institutes of Health. See Summary Table 1 (traineeships), which account for about 85 percent of total NRSA support in the behavioral sciences. Emphasis has been given to predoctoral support, although institutional training grants permit the mix of predoctoral and postdoctoral trainees. Individual fellowships have been made available at both the predoctoral and postdoctoral levels. Predoctoral Training On the basis of continuing gains being made by behavioral scientists in areas of national interest and of anticipated employment opportunities for highly skilled researchers, the committee urges the continued expansion of federal support through predoctoral awards in the behavioral sciences. Predoctoral awards permit the preparation of investigators familiar with the broad range of research techniques and theories that characterize doctoral preparation in the behavioral sciences. Many graduates are ready to assume research positions on completion of the doctoral degree, although postdoctoral training has gained some momentum in certain component subfields. As is the case in other areas, the committee is concerned that current low stipend levels for NRSA awardees serve as a disincentive to attract the most able scientists to research careers in health-related fields. Thus, the committee has tempered its call for expansion in total support in the behavioral sciences in recognition of the competing need to increase stipend support (Table 4-6). RECOMMENDATION: The committee recommends that the number of predoctoral trainees and fellows supported annually in the behavioral sciences increase from an estimated 672 in fiscal 1993 to 900 by fiscal 1996. The expansion in support should maintain the same ratio of trainees to fellows. Postdoctoral Training Postdoctoral research training through the NRSA award provides the nation with a mechanism to attract the most skilled scientists to address areas of national need. Because of differences in the evolution of research careers, postdoctoral research training plays a greater role in some behavioral sciences than others. Nonetheless, postdoctoral studies increase the technical skills of the investigator and strengthen the pool of talent available to the nation for research. RECOMMENDATION: The committee recommends that the number of postdoctoral trainees and fellows supported annually in the behavioral sciences increase from approximately 349 awardees in fiscal 1993 to 500 in fiscal 1996. Minority Access to Research Careers Since its inception in the late 1970s, the special program of undergraduate support for Minority Access to Research

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TABLE 4-6 Committee Recommendations for Relative Distribution of Predoctoral and Postdoctoral Traineeship and Fellowship Awards in Behavioral Sciences for FY 1994 through FY 1999       Type of Support Fiscal Year Level of Training TOTAL Traineeship Fellowship 1994 Recommended number of awards 1,195 1,040 155   Predoctoral 745 670 75   Postdoctoral 400 320 80   MARC Undergraduate 50 50 - 1995 Recommended number of awards 1,325 1,150 175   Predoctoral 825 740 85   Postdoctoral 450 360 90   MARC Undergraduate 50 50 - 1996 Recommended number of awards 1,450 1,260 190   Predoctoral 900 810 90   Postdoctoral 500 400 100   MARC Undergraduate 50 50 - 1997 Recommended number of awards 1,450 1,260 190   Predoctoral 900 810 90   Postdoctoral 500 400 100   MARC Undergraduate 50 50 - 1998 Recommended number of awards 1,450 1,260 190   Predoctoral 900 810 90   Postdoctoral 500 400 100   MARC Undergraduate 50 50 - 1999 Recommended number of awards 1,450 1,260 190   Predoctoral 900 810 90   Postdoctoral 500 400 100   MARC Undergraduate 50 50 - Careers (MARC) has included a small number of awards for research training in the behavioral sciences. In recent years, about 50 awards were made for training in this area (Table 4-5). The MARC program represents a unique and special program of support for the recruitment of minorities into research careers in the behavioral sciences. We look forward to reviewing the outcome of the review of the MARC program presently being conducted under the auspices of NIH. We endorse the continuation of MARC support for research training in the behavioral sciences at current levels until that study is complete. RECOMMENDATION: The committee recommends that the number of NRSA awards for research training in the behavioral sciences through the MARC program be maintained at about 50 per year, pending completion of the NIH review. NOTES 1. Broadly construed to include psychology, sociology, anthropology, and speech and hearing sciences. See Appendix B for a list of disciplines included in this area. 2. There was a significant drop in the academic sector work force between 1989 and 1991. In part, this decline may reflect methodological changes that were introduced at that time to the Survey from which these data were generated. However, the decline may be reflecting a weakening of demand in the academic sector. 3. Approximately 30,000 thousand of the 67,000 workers employed in the behavioral sciences in 1991 were clinical psychologists whose participation in health-related research varies from year to year.

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4. See Appendix F. 5. Survey of Doctoral Recipients (SDR) data, special tabulations. 6. See Appendix F. 7. In 1989 hospitals and other nonprofit institutions employed 23 percent of the clinical psychologists, seven percent of the nonclinical psychologists, and five percent of the sociologists and anthropologists (Pion, 1993). The numbers in Pion's paper come from Quantum Research Corporation's analysis of the SDR data. Those numbers are not strictly comparable with labor force numbers used elsewhere in this report, due to differences in definition of variables. 8. See Chapter 3, Reis, P. and D.H. Thurgood, Summary Report 1992: Doctorate Recipients from United States Universities, Appendix Table B-1. 9. Although the number of postdoctoral appointments are also thought to be strongly influenced by current job opportunities, we do not include them as an indicator for behavioral scientists because, as shown earlier. they are a relatively unimportant part of this labor market. 10. Starting salaries are defined as the salaries of workers in the age group 30-34. 11. See IOM, 1994 for further discussion of this phenomenon. 12. For more detail. Chapter 3, note 11 and Appendix G. 13. The increases could also be reflecting the impact of the expected aging of this work force on separations other than deaths and retirements. See supra, Chapter 3. note 9. 14. The estimate is presented as a minimum value because these job openings could also be filled by recruiting workers with degrees and training in closely related fields or workers from abroad. 15. On the basis of information gathered from the National Science Foundation the committee estimates that fewer than 5 percent of graduate students in the behavioral sciences received NRSA support in FY 1990. 16. See Appendix A for a brief review of earlier NRC studies in this area. 17. These figures are in constant 1982 dollars. 18. 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