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CHAPTER 3
THE FUTURE LABOR MARKET
FOR BIOMEDICAL AND BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH PERSONNEL
OVERVIEW
Labor market projections for this report were expanded to include demand from
industry, government, and other nonacademic sources. Labor demand projections reflect
increased attrition due to the aging of the work force. The mode! has also been refined in
its reflection of the various segments of the market for biomedical and behavioral
scientists. Finally, the committee attempted to extend its projections to the year 2000.
For biomedical scientists, the projected current Ph.D. production is inadequate to
meet growing demand. Employment growth is driven by industry, which may become the
largest employer by 1995. Jobs in R&D increase more rapidly than in non-A&D. Because
of demand growth and higher attrition, Ph.D. production must increase.
For behavioral scientists, the labor market should remain in approximate balance.
Growing demand for clinical psychologists may draw behavioral Ph.D.s out of R&D. The
market for nonclinical psychologists is projected to be in approximate balance in the l99Os,
and the model indicates a stable market for other behavioral scientists--anthropologists,
sociologists, audiologists, and speech pathologists.
The labor market for physician/scientists is more difficult to project. Recent
studies indicate that the demand for clinical investigators has been overstated in the past.
However, a number of factors suggest that the demand for well trained physician/scientists
will increase in the future.
Extended projections to the year 2000 reflect similar trends. Demand for
biomedical scientists could be twice the current level of biomedical Ph.D. production. The
market for behavioral scientists is in better balance with supply unless growth is higher
than expected. The demand for physician/scientists could grow substantially, particularly
if significant numbers of M.D.s are drawn into basic research in the biomedical sciences.
PRIOR COMMITTEE PROJECTIONS AND CURRENT METHODOLOGY
The legislation mandating this study requires the committee to assess "the nation's
overall need for biomedical and behavioral research personnel.' Past committees have
defined this "need" in labor market terms--that is, how many biomedical and behavioral
researchers will be "needed" in the future to fill academic demand?
Job openings were determined by growth in the number of academic positions and
faculty attrition. These projections were developed for the near term; the 1985 committee
report included projections to 1990. This report expands the earlier analysis in several
ways:
In almost every biomedical and behavioral field, the major source of
historical and projected employment growth is in nonacademic sectors,
iSection 489 of P.L. 99-158.
51
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primarily private industry. This report expands the labor market analysis to
include industry, government, hospital, and other nonacademic sources of
labor demand for biomedical and behavioral scientists.2
2. This analysis develops separate projections for the labor market in general
and for that subsection of the labor market associated with scientists whose
primary work activity is R&D or the management of R&D.
3. Given concern over the graying of the work force, the current analysis
includes a demographic/economic model for estimating scientist attrition due
to death, retirement, and net occupational movement. Attrition in this model
is a function of the age and experience structure of the scientist work force.
4. ~ The analysis brings labor supply into the labor market assessment. This was
not done in earlier reports.
5. Given that the median time to complete a biomedical Ph.D. has grown from
seven years in the late 1970s to eight years in 1987, the 1997 biomedical
scientist labor market will be influenced by student decisions and NRSA
policy in 1989. In the behavioral sciences, median time to Ph.D. has
increased from approximately S.5 years to 10.5 years during the same period.
These time lags argue for a longer horizon of analysis. Consequently, the
current study projects labor market variables to the year 2000.
THE MODEL
Figure 3-1 is a schematic drawing of the labor market assessment model used in this
report.4 The stock of scientists in time period t is characterized by biological age (years
since birth) and career age (years since degree). Historical data provide estimates of the
deaths and retirements by biological age; these scientists are removed from the stock.
Those who do not retire or die can also leave the field for other employment; this too is
2Although the NRSA program is concerned only with research personnel, it is necessary
to take account of the total demand for biomedical and behavioral scientists to ensure that
an adequate supply is available. Rapid employment growth in the industrial sector could
create hiring difficulties in the academic sector even if academic sector employment is
stable or declining.
3Despite the more secular nature of the model, it is unlikely that shifting demographics
will substantially affect the analysis. The National Center for Education Statistics' (NCES)
demographic mode! projections indicate that M.D.s and first-professional degrees will
"increase slightly or remain stable" through 1998. NCES also projects college enrollments to
decline from 12.56 million in 1988 to 12.17 million in 1998 (midcase). These points indicate
that demographics will not have major influences on supply of Ph.D.s or demand for
faculty during the projection period. See NCES, Projection of Education Statistics to 1997-
199S, Washing-ton, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1988.
4For a more complete discussion of the labor market assessment model, see Joe G. Baker
"Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper," in Volume III of this report.
52
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Scientists in time t
Characterized by
1. Biological Age
2. Career Age
Career Age
Net Outmig tl
dependent upon
_L
"Surviving" Scientists
in time t+1
Scientists in time t+1
Characterized by
1. Biological Age
2. Career Age
Figure 3-1. Labor market assessment mode
Demand for Scientists
1. R&D Spending
2. Enrollments
3. Other
Deaths 8 Retirement
dependent upon
Biological Age
New Hires by
1. Biological Age
2. Career Age
-
1.
rat
Required. Scientists
Stock t+1
1. Academic
2. Industry
3. Government
4. Hospitals
5. Other
r
NOW Hires=
Required
~Surviving.
-
Supply of Scientists
( 1. Readiness
`` 2. Recruitment
3. Retention _ ~
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assumed to be a function of career age.5 Estimates of migration presented here are net
(outmigration less inmigration from other fields) and are estimated from historical data.
The surviving scientist stock is available for employment in period t+l.
The required scientist stock in period t+l is estimated from submodels that link
demand for scientists to the demand for the goods and services that scientists produce (e.g.,
conducting R&D or training graduate students). The submodels were constructed from
demand equations that were estimated from historical data. For example, non-A&D
biomedical industrial employment was estimated to be a function of real constant dollar
output of the pharmaceutical industry; R&D biomedical industrial employment was
estimated to be a function of real constant dollar, private sector, health-related R&D
spending. These demand submodels vary by discipline (biomedical, behavioral, clinical),
sector (academic, industrial, government, etc.),-and activity (R&D, non-R&D).
The difference between the surviving scientist stock and the required scientist stock
in period t+l represents the number-of job openings that must be filled by new entrants.
These job openings are compared to supply to compute "vacancy ratios," (i.e.,~the number of
job openings per new Ph.D.~. Increases or decreases in future vacancy ratios from
historical ratios give one a sense of changes in the projected demand/supply balance in the
scientist labor market. This same basic analysis is replicated for the R&D subsector by
comparing R&D job openings to postdoctoral "graduates."
Obviously, the number of job openings is dependent upon ~ wide range of other
variables, including health R&D expenditures, general economic growth, wage rates, and
other labor market factors. Likewise, decisions to enroll in graduate school are based in
part on current student support, starting salaries, expected future earnings, earnings
available in alternative careers, and other factors. In the simplified approach used here,
however, we have implicitly assumed that these excluded variables are constant; we are
primarily concerned with major shifts in the demand and supply of scientists through time.
While the resulting analysis takes little account of the responses of institutions and
individuals to changing labor market conditions, the projections contained in this chapter
do serve to highlight the consequences of current trends and suggest courses of corrective
action.6 Where possible, we do discuss potential labor market adjustments to changing
conditions.
THE FUTURE LABOR MARKET FOR BIOMEDICAL SCIENTISTS
The demand for biomedical scientists is derived from demand for the goods and
services they produce, primarily biomedical research and instruction. In order to estimate
the future need for biomedical scientists, we must estimate the level of demand for these
goods and services, e.g., the level of health-related R&D to be conducted and the levels of
undergraduate and graduate enrollment. Massive new public health efforts in areas such as
AIDS research could increase the demand for health research personnel significantly.
5This is based upon the assumption that there is a "career pattern" of outmobility based
upon years since Ph.D. (e.g., the probability that one would leave his/her degree field for
other employment is small immediately after receipt of the degree; but in later years
scientists may move into management and administration). The reader is referred to the
current labor market section for estimates of these outmigration rates.
6An econometric approach to projecting the biomedical scientist labor market that
included prices and feedback mechanisms produced results consistent with this chapter.
See Joe G. Baker, "The Ph.D. Supply Crisis: A Look at the Biomedical Sciences," paper
given at the Western Economics Association Meetings, Lake Tahoe, Nevada, July 21, 1989.
54
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Private sector research, especially in the emerging biotechnology industry, has the potential
to command an increasing portion of limited biomedical scientific resources. Demand for
teaching faculty is dependent upon the enrollment levels in graduate programs as well as
on university R&D. As the biomedical scientist cadre matures, attrition from death and
retirement will increase the demand for replacement in these areas.
Growth in Employment
In order to provide projections of future demand for biomedical scientists, the
committee developed the following scenarios, which are summarized in Table 3-1:
Low Case: The low-case scenario corresponds to a conservative retrenchment
from current trends: cuts are imposed on growth rates of federal health
R&D, and the private sector retreats from current growth levels. In this
scenario, both federal and private health-related R&D slow to approximately
half their current rates of growth. Graduate and undergraduate enrollment
in biomedical sciences decline by 1 percent annually.
2. Mid Case: The mid-case scenario is largely "status quo" with regards to both
federal and private health- related R&D funding. Enrollments are assumed
to be stable at 1987 levels.
High Case: The high-case scenario is based on large increases in health-
related R&D funding in such areas as AIDS and alcohol and drug addiction.
Private sector efforts in biotechnology and other areas exceed historical
levels. Enrollments are assumed to grow by 1 percent annually.
TABLE 3-1. Projection Model Assumptions, Biomedical Sciences
Real Health R&D
Expenditures
Historical Assumptions for Future
_ Annual Growth Rate Annual Growth Rate
10 Year 5 Year 1 Year Low Mid
Federal 2.7°% 5.4% 7.3% 1.5%
Private 9~3% 10.3% 9.6% 5.0%
Other 6.2X 8.8% -1.1% 2.0%
Enrollment in -0.3% -0.2% -0.3°% -1.0%
Universities
New Ph.D.s 1.4% 0.0% 2.7% -1.0%
2.~X 4.0°%
9.0% 13.0%
3.0°K 4.0%
0.0% 1.0%
0.0% 1.0%
SOURCE: Volume II, Tables B1, B3, and Be. Projection assumptions developed
by the committee.
Projections of the required stock of scientists (Figure 3-1) were developed using
these assumptions in the labor demand submodels. ~ Figure 3-2 details the results of these
projections. Regardless of the scenario chosen, the same basic trend is evident: industrial
employment of biomedical scientists dominates-growth in the future labor market, and in
15
a:
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all but the low case it becomes
the largest employment sector by c
the year 1995. Historical growth !,
in biomedical employment
averaged 4.S percent annually 3
for the 1973-1987 period; the c
projected growth rates for the
low, mid, and high cases are 1.8 c
percent, 3.6 percent, and 5.2 v
percent, respectively.
Biomedical scientists engaged
primarily in R&D or the
management of R&D will grow ,
faster than the biomedical work e
force in general. This is because
private industry, in which a
high percent of biomedical
scientists are engaged in R&D, is
projected to grow faster than the
other employment sectors.
Attrition
Job openings are also
created by death, retirement,
and outmobility. Given the
graying of the scientific work
force, these openings are
expected to increase in the
future.7 Figure 3-3 portrays the
estimated number of openings
from death, retirement, and net
outmobility for historical and
projected periods (mid-case
scenario). Openings due to
death and retirement are
projected to increase from
approximately 1,200 per year in
the latter 1980s to 1,650 per year
for the 1987-1995 period. Net
worker mobility, which created
approximately 650 job openings
annually in the 1980s, is
projected to increase to 950 per
year for the 1987-1995 period.
For the 1987- 1995 period,
therefore, approximately 2,600
new scientists will be required
annually just to maintain
current employment levels. This
12 ~
10 -
8l
64
4]
-2]
O
C] LOW Came
; l' Mid Cam
High Case
Academic Industn~ Govenunent Over Tote
Employment Sector
SOURCE: Appendix Table A-18.
Figure 3-2. Projected annual growth rates for
biomedical scientists, 1987- 1995.
3000 -
a
OF
~5
;-
e] Net Mobdi~
C3 Dka~IRebre.
1973-78 1978-83
SOURCE: Appendix Table Am.
1983 -87 1990-95
Figure 3-3. Historical and projected biomedical
scientist attrition, 1973- 1995.
7In 1987, approximately 10,800 employed biomedical scientists were aged 55 or older.
Under the mid-case scenario, this will grow to approximately 15,500 in 1995. See Joe G.
Baker, "Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper," in Volume III of this
report.
56
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figure will rise to approximately 3,400 by the year 2000. Given that about 4,000 Ph.D.s are
awarded currently, growth in employment can occur only if the number of Ph.D.s increases.
Future Demand and Supply
The sum of openings due to attrition and growth is the total number of "new hires"
required annually (Figure 3-1~. Figure 3-4 compares the projected labor demand (job
openings) to labor supply (new biomedical Ph.D.s). It shows that the number of positions
per new biomedical Ph.D. has grown during the 1980s over the 1970s. Assuming that degree
production changes in proportion to enrollments (-1, 0, and 1 percent growth for the three
scenarios), both the mid-case and high-case scenarios will produce even greater imbalances
between job openings and new biomedical Ph.D.s.
In summary, the committee projects a future labor market for biomedical scientists
that is characterized by increasing imbalance between demand and supply. Because death
and retirement are expected to double in the next decade, and because most of the openings
created by retirement will be in academe, this presages a time of unprecedented
competition between academic institutions and the emerging biotechnology industry. This
situation can be avoided by some combination of the following factors:
Decreased growth: Current biomedical Ph.D. production could support future
demand if future growth is in the neighborhood of 2 percent annually.
However, this is a considerable decrease from the 4.S percent historical
growth rate in biomedical Ph.D. employment.
a
.
a
on
a
o
-
A:
oils
1
CPhD s
l
7eQ0 - ~
6000 -
5000 -
4000 -
l ~ ~
3000 -
2000 -
1000 - ~
~ , , I , , ,
o
Biomedical Scientists
oils
C//~
r/f ire
~ 1
Ph.D.s
1973- 1979 . 1979- 1987
SOURCE: Appendix Table A-l9.
. . .
oils
-
~A_Y~
DAM
ma_
~A~W9YW~
RZ .
BY
.
1~
1
IA
C~1
Ph.D.s
1 ~
Al
1 990- 1 995
EN Ph.D.s
~ Grown
g' Net Mobility
Death/Retired
Figure 3-4. Average annual biomedical job openings and new Ph.D.s, 1973-1995.
57
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o
o
o
o
o
o
Increased production: Biomedical Ph.D. production could support faster
growth if the number of degrees increases from the current level of 4,000 per
year to the 5,000-6,000 range. Given current trends in first-year graduate
enrollments in biomedical sciences, however, there is likely to be no major
increase in Ph.D. production until the mid-199Os.8
Decreasing graduate school attrition anal time to degree: The high rates of
graduate student attrition and lengthy time to degree increase the
sluggishness and decrease the productivity of graduate schools in the
production of new scientists. Little is known about the causes of these
problems; therefore it is difficult to offer solutions other than more research
If time to the doctorate and attrition could be reduced, however, the benefits
would be more immediate than increasing enrollments.
Increases! retention of women: Female scientists have much higher dropout
rates than men (see Chapter 2~. If programs were developed to increase full-
time science participation by females who hold Ph.D.s, effective labor supply
would increase.
Recruitment of outside Ph.D.s: Inmobility of Ph.D.s from other fields could
increase. Recruiting new entrants from other fields is viable so long as there
are people in other fields to draw on. However, most studies of the science
and engineering labor market in the 1990s project a similar imbalance
between new Ph.D.s and job openings in other fields. Therefore, it may
become increasingly difficult to draw entrants from other fields. Also, these
entrants may not be as productive as scientists with degrees in biomedical
sciences, and there may be other costs associated with hiring them, such as
training costs or increased supervision requirements. Very little is known
about these tradeoffs, however.
Decreased attrition: Patterns of outmobility and retirement could change;
perhaps incentives could be developed to affect this behavior such as
rewarding delayed retirement.
Recruitment of foreign Ph.D.s: Foreign nationals with permanent visas could
help meet U.S. science need.
THE FUTURE LABOR MARKET FOR BEHAVIORAL SCIENTISTS
The behavioral sciences are made up of a group of disciplines that includes clinical
psychology, nonclinical psychology, anthropology, sociology, and speech pathology (these
latter three are grouped together as "other behavioral sciences"~. Clinical psychologists are
mainly involved in patient care; the behavioral science disciplines that are it&D-oriented
are nonclinical psychology and other behavioral sciences.
Waif one assumes that biomedical Ph.D. output will change in parallel with lagged first-
year biomedical graduate enrollment change, one can estimate Ph.D. labor supply through
1995 based upon current enrollment, although historically such a mode! yields a poor fit.
Using this assumption does not substantially change the results, however: the lagged
enrollment model shows Ph.D. output in the biomedical sciences increasing very slowly,
from 4,000 in 1987 to only 4,100 in 1995. See Joe G. Baker, "The Ph.D. Supply Crisis: A
Look at the Biomedical Sciences."
58
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The future labor market for clinical psychologists is projected to be characterized
by increasing imbalance of demand over supply. Given that most of this growth is
practice-related, the direct consequences for behavioral science research personnel are
slight. However, clinical practice will offer an attractive employment opportunity for
behavioral scientists in general, and could be expected to draw scientists from R&D
activities.
Nonclinical Psychology
Nonclinical psychologists make up approximately 30 percent of the behavioral
scientist work force. Unlike clinical psychologists, their work consists largely of teaching
and research. Over 80 percent of nonclinical psychologists work in private industry or
academic settings; the remaining 20 percent are distributed among government, hospitals,
and other employment sectors.
The key assumptions employed for projecting future levels of demand for
nonclinical psychologists appear in Table 3-2 and are summarized here:
o Graduate enrollment growth in the behavioral sciences is modest or negative
under three scenarios: low case (-1.0 percent annually), mid case (0.0
percent), and high case (1.0 percent).
TABLE 3- 2. Pro ject i on Mode l Assumpt i ons, Behavi ore l Sci ences
H i star i ca l Assumpt i ons f or Future
Annua l Growth Rate Annua l Growth Rate
Variable 10 Year 5 Year 1 Year Low Mid High
~-
Graduate
Enrol lrnent i n
Universi ties
Industrial
Employment of
Noncl inical
Psychologists
Nonacademi c
employment of
Other Behavi ore l
Scientists
R&D 3.5% -2.2%
NonR&D 14.4% 15.7X
New Ph.D.s -0-7°/O -1.1%
1~1% 0.2% : -0.3X -1.0% 0.0% 1.~%
6.6% 3.7% 3.2% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
38.~% 3.0X 5.0% 7.0%
-2.0% 7.0% 10.0X 15.0%
-1~8% ~1aO% 0~0% 1~0%
SOURCE: Volume II, Tables C1, C10-1, and TabLe A-10 from Joe G. Baker,
"Biomedical Cohort Model: A Technical Paper" in Volume III of this report.
Projection assumptions developed by the committee.
9In 1987 about 20 percent of employed clinical psychologists had degrees in other fields.
However, future movement into the field may be slowed by changes in state certification
requirements.
59
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o
Demand growth for nonclinical psychologists in industry continues to grow
under the low case (2.0 percent per year), mid case (3.0 percent), and high
case (4.0 percent). This compares to an historical growth rate of 3.1 percent
per year for the 1985-1987 period.
O Growth in demand for nonclinical psychologists in the government sector is
assumed to be 1 percent annually in each scenario.
Figure 3-5 displays the resulting projections. Total growth in the employment of
nonclinical psychologists averaged 3.1 percent annually for the 1973-1987 period; projected
employment growth is expected to range from-0.4 percent to 1.9 percent. In all cases
nonclinical psychologists engaged primarily in R&D or the management of R&D are
projected to remain at a fairly constant proportion (approximately 27 percent) of the total
behavioral scientist work force.
Figure 3-6 shows the historical and projected trends in the number of annual
openings from death, retirement, and outmobility. Total annual attrition increased from
approximately 660 openings in the early 1970s (230 death and retirement and 430 net
outmobility) to approximately 1,000 in the late 1980s (430 de-ash and retirement and 570 net
outmobility). This level of annual attrition is projected to increase only slightly, to
approximately 1,050, for the 1990-1995 period under the mid-case scenario.
As shown in Figure 3-7, the number of job openings per new nonclinical psychology
Ph.D. has been between 0.8 to 0.9 for the 1973-1987 period. Assuming degree production
changes in parallel with enrollments (-1, 0, and +1 percent annual change for the three
scenarios), there will be little change from these vacancy ratios in the 1990s. Even the
8 -
in
o
~ 6
~ 4
v
~ 2
c,
L.
_ 0
en
I:
SOURCE: Appendix Table A-20.
[] Low Case
81 Mid Case
El High Case
~ L
-2- , ,
i>
Academic Industrial Goverrunent
Employment Sector
Other Total
Figure 3-5. Annual growth rates for nonclinical psychologists, 1987-1995.
60
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high-case scenario projects
approximately one
job opening
per new nonclinical psychology
Ph.D. Taken together, Figures 3-
5 through 3-7 show that the
labor market for nonclinical
psychologists moved from excess
supply in the 1970s to
approximate balance in the
1980s. This balance is projected
to continue into the 1990s, with
approximately 80 percent of all
job openings coming from
attrition.
Projections for
nonclinical psychology R&D
employment indicate a softening
of the job market, with fewer
R&D job openings per
postdoctorate through 1995 than
2000 -
1500 -
1000 -
o
-
3
500-
rat
Owls
Cl
///
PhD.s
1200 -
1000
=, 800
o
~ 600
400
OF
~ 200
¢
' Net Mobility
e] DeaWRetire.
AL
'//f/>
/~/
O- _ 1 l ~
//
_
1973-78 1978-83 1983-87 1990-95
SOURCE: Appendix Table A-9.
Figure 3-6. Historical and projected average annual
attrition for nonclinical psychologists, 1987-1995.
Nonclinical Psychologists
Ides
Openings ~
l
1
PhD.s
__
Logs
~ ~ ~ _ 1 l ~ I l ~ ~
1973- 1979 . 1979- 1987 . 1990- 1995
SOURCE: Appendix Table A-21.
E3 Ph.D.s
@' Growth
Net Mobility
[] Dea~JRetire.
Figure 3-7. Annual average job openings and new Ph.D.s in nonclinical psychology;
1973-1995.
61
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during the 1973-1987 period, assuming that postdoctorate production remains near its 1987
levels.
In summary, the future labor market for nonclinical psychologists will be
characterized by approximate balance unless (1) future rates of growth in employment
exceed the high-case scenario rate of 1.9 percent annually; (2) the award of doctoral
degrees declines substantially (by approximately 3.0 percent per year) from its current
level; and/or (3) the clinical psychology market captures a larger share of nonclinical
psychologists. The potential for demand (job openings) in excess of supply (new
nonclinical psychology Ph.D.s) is even greater in the late l990s (see "Prospects for the Long
Term," below).
Other Behavioral Scientists
Other behavioral scientists include Ph.D.s in anthropology, sociology, audiology, and
speech pathology. In 1987 other behavioral scientists made up about one in five behavioral
scientists. The "other" group is dominated by academic employment: almost 85 percent of
total employment is in academic work, with the remaining 15 percent scattered across the
other employment sectors.
Given the predominance of academic work, future employment will be closely
linked to academic demand. The assumptions used to project future employment, shown in
Table 3-2, are as follows:
o
o
Annual growth in graduate enrollment remains modest in all three scenarios:
low case (-1.0 percent per year), medium case (0.0 percent), and high case (1.0
percent). As a result, academic employment of "others" grows very little.
Employment of "others" in nonacademic employment sectors grows more
rapidly. The low-, medium-, and high-case growth rates are 7, 10, and 15
percent annually for non-A&D scientists, respectively, and 3, 5, and 7 percent
annually for scientists engaged in R&D or the management of R&D.
Figure 3-8 displays the resulting projections. Total growth in the employment of
other behavioral scientists averaged 4.8 percent annually for the 1973-1987 period.
Projected growth of employment ranges from -0.3 percent to 3.4 percent. In all but the low
case, employment in R&D or the management of R&D grows more slowly than non-A&D
employment. Attrition is projected to grow to approximately 700 per year for the 1987-
1995 period (300 death and retirement, 400 net mobility) from about 650 in the late 1980s.
The number of job openings available to each new "other" Ph.D., which had been
approximately 0.9 for the 1973-1987 period, would increase only under the high-case
scenario. R&D vacancy ratios through 1995 show little change from current values.
In summary, the future labor market for other behavioral scientists will be
characterized by relative stability unless (1) the future rate of growth in employment
exceeds 2.0 percent annually; and/or (2) de0gree production decreases from its current level
of 950 annually to less than 700 annually.] If time to the doctorate in the behavioral
10This assumes that degree production changes proportionately with enrollments. First-
year graduate enrollments in other behavioral sciences have fallen, from 4,470 in 1980 to
3,995 in 1987. Although the relationship between first-year enrollments and lagged Ph.D.
production is poor, these declines could translate into lower Ph.D. output during the 1990s.
If this occurs, a portion of this supply shortfall could be absorbed by increasing faculty
productivity: in 1975, 5.4 B.A./B.S. degrees in other behavioral sciences were awarded per
faculty member; in 1987 this statistic had fallen to 1.6.
62
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sciences continues to grow,
degree production could
decrease. A combination of
these events could also produce
a market imbalance. In the
R&D sector, movement of
postdoctoral students into the
labor market at the current level
of approximately 120 annually
would satisfy long-term R&D
demand.
The committee's
projections of greater growth in
demand for biomedical than for
behavioral scientists disagrees
with the findings of a recent
study by Bowen and Sosa. They
examined the prospects for arts
and sciences faculty and
concluded that impending
shortages would be greater in
the social sciences and
humanities than in the natural
sciences. One reason for this
disagreement is the fact that this
report focuses on research personnel and thus excludes the fastest-growing area of the
behavioral sciences--clinical psychology. Another is that they make assumptions about
changes in student values that our committee did not malted
-
E
a:
-
o.
~8
-
e
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
O
-2
4
i
_
~1
. ~
~ Low Case
gel Mid Case
ED Him Case
_~1
Academic All Other Total
Employment Sector
SOURCE: Appendix Table A-22.
Figure 3-~. Projected annual growth rates for other
behavioral scientists, 1987-1995.
THE FUTURE LABOR MARKET FOR PHYSICIAN/SCIENTISTS
Demand for Clinical Investigators
Estimating the demand for clinical investigators would be a difficult task in the
best of circumstances. Terms such as "scientist," "investigator," and "research" are poorly
defined and frequently misapplied. Past reports and projections by this committee have
taken a similar misstep by virtue of equating "clinical faculty" and "clinical investigators."
More recent evidence indicates that the demand for clinical investigators may be lower
than previously estimated.
William G. Bowen and Julie Ann Sosa, Prospects for Faculty in the Arts and Sciences. A
Study of Factors Affecting Demand and Supply, 1987-2012, Princeton, NJ: Princeton
University Press, 1989.
bother relevant differences are that Bowen arid Sosa focus on faculty and do not
explicitly take account of research. They also use a proportional assumption concerning
faculty and enrollment that we consider to be unrealistic: in their baseline case, they find
a tighter market as the number of college-aged students stops declining and then begins to
Increase.
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The American Association of Medical Colleges (AAMC) Faculty Roster indicates
that 69.6 percent of academic physicians are engaged in research activity, but several
studies have concluded that this significantly overstates the number of medical school
physician faculty involved in research.~3 Levey, et al., analyzed surveys of faculty in
research-intensive clinical departments (internal medicine) and arrived at a figure of 34
percent, later revised (using stricter criteria) to 20 percent. Sherman's reexamination of the
same data yielded a median R&D effort of 25 percent. Institute of Medicine data, based on
seven-day diaries of 3,400 faculty members in 20 schools of medicine and more than 100
teaching hospitals taken in the spring of 1975, indicated that 20 percent were involved in
research, either alone or in combination with teaching and patient care; this survey did not
include R&D administration as a specific reported item. It seems reasonable, based on
these studies, to assume that 20-25 percent of all clinical faculty members would be
properly classified as clinical investigators. This places the demand for
physician/scientists in medical schools at between 10,000 and 12,000; the total demand
would be something on the order of 16,000 to 1S,000 (10,000 to 12,000 medical school, 434
NIH, and 5,651 other).
Similar numbers can be arrived at by extrapolating from the NIH-documented
population of clinical investigators. Their numbers have increased by 50 percent in the last
17 years, from 4,300 in 1970 to 6,400 in 1987, or roughly 2.4 percent per year. This figure
would represent a lower boundary on the number of academically-based research M.D.s.
Assuming that the ratio of M.D. grantees to total M.D. investigators is the same as that for
Ph.D. investigators--15,589 grantees out of 22,751 Ph.D.s in academic it&D--then by analogy
there would be 9,330 M.D.s engaged in academic R&D. Because patient-related research is
poorly supported by NIH, the figure is probably somewhat higher, plausibly in the 10,000
to 12,000 range suggested above.
New research efforts requiring M.D. training would increase these demand figures
to some unknown extent. New, well-funded initiatives in such areas as health services
research, outcome assessment, and epidemiology, in both academic and industrial settings,
plus renewed interest in occupational and environmental health, would require additional
M.D. participation in areas where medical training has traditionally given little emphasis.
All of this suggests that the time has come to take a new look at the clinical
investigator demand model, particularly the demand equations, and to develop a more
accurate model on a more rational basis. For example, almost 50 percent of medical school
revenues now come from patient care sources; this is hardly an indicator of demand for
clinical investigators. Medical student enrollment has leveled off, but the mix of faculty
effort may be more directly influenced by house staff and fellow enrollments. The clinical
scientist employment reported by NIH appears low--where, for example, are Veterans
Administration (VA), Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and other federally-employed
investigators reported? To reflect how the demand for clinical investigators is created, and
how decisions to employ them are made would require a model in which demand is
expressed as an explicit function of such variables as NIH intramural and extramural
budgets, FDA budget, pharmaceutical industry R&D expenditures, and state research
appropriations to medical schools.
~3See G. S. Levey, et al., "Postdoctoral Research Training of Full-Time Faculty in
Academic Departments of Medicine," Annals of Internal Medicine, vol. 109, no. 5 (September
1988), pp. 414-418; Charles R. Sherman, "The NIH Role in Training of Individual Physician
Faculty: A Supplementary Analysis," NIH memorandum dated March 30, 1989, and
Institute of Medicine, Medicare and Medicaid Reimbursement Policies Study, Washington,
D.C.: National Academy Press, 1976.
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The Supply of Clinical Investigators
There is no reason to assume that the number of M.D.s available for clinical
investigation will increase because of an oversupply of physicians who find patient care
less satisfying for reasons of economics,~competition, and/or personal preference. For
example, the demand for M.D.s in the health care system's bureaucracy is not trivial, and
many physicians may decide to become health care executives or take other career paths
that have little or nothing to do with their training as ~D.s. Also, in spite of their best
efforts, some of them may not have the intellectual wherewithal, imagination, and drive
required to compete in the world of clinical investigation. For all of these reasons, it is not
logical to assume that research is more attractive than patient care, nor is there any basis to
assume a reduction in the research attrition rate.
The current supply model arbitrarily sets a fraction of the total physician
manpower supply as the supply of clinical investigators--a procedure that is simplistic to an
unsatisfactory degree. Supply also bears some relationship to the students' responses in the
AAMC surveys regarding their future intentions, to the proportions that select subspecialty
research training, and most importantly, to the opportunities for training and careers in
clinical investigation. A more sophisticated supply model, one that has both relevance and
some basis in available data, would express supply as an explicit function of such variables
as the numbers of medical students, house staff, and fellows; medical student interest in
clinical investigation; and training positions in clinical investigation.
It is equally important to recognize how various disciplines change and open up
whole new areas that cannot be predicted by these demand and supply functions. Examples
include the impact of new diseases such as AIDS, the growing concern over alcohol and
drug abuse in our society, and the growing geriatric population with all of their medical
and social needs. Further, the demand for outcome assessment of health care from the
standpoint of efficiency will also create a demand for more and more physician/scientists
who have the tools to address these problems.
PROSPECTS FOR THE LONGER TERM: 1995 TO THE YEAR 2000
The preceding analysis of the labor markets for biomedical and behavioral scientists
focused upon the period 1987-1995. As was discussed in the text, the policy options for this
period are somewhat limited, given that the average time to complete the Ph.D. is in excess
of eight years--that is, the "policy window" for the 1995 labor market is quite small.
What of the longer term--that is, to the turn of the century? Although the
projections become more uncertain, the influence of policy as a corrective mechanism
becomes stronger. The following discussion of a "status quo" future is based upon the
assumption that the key variables--mainly enrollments, degree production, and employment
growth--continue on the paths established during the late 1980s.
Biomedical Scientists
If recent trends in employment growth (4.1 percent annual rate) and attrition
continue, job openings for biomedical scientists will exceed 8,000 per year by the year 2000.
Replacement of scientists lost to attrition alone would require approximately 2,900
scientists. This is more than double the current level of Ph.D. production in the biomedical
sciences, about 4,000 per year. Even if one assumes that growth falls to only 2 percent
annually, job openings in the year 2000 would require 5,000 new Ph.D.s.
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Behavioral Scientists
Unlike the market for biomedical scientists, the year 2000 labor market for
behavioral scientists appears to be more in line with current levels of degree production.
There exists the potential for imbalances in this market if even modest rates of
employment growth are achieved during the l990s; this is certainly a topic that needs to be
monitored in the future.
Extending recent trends (2.0 percent annual growth) in nonclinical psychology
employment growth through the year 2000 results in annual job openings of approximately
1,900 in that year. Current Ph.D. output of almost 1,400 would clearly be inadequate to
meet this level of demand. However, it is the committee's opinion that current rates of
employment growth will not be sustained; current levels of Ph.D. output should meet
projected employment growth of 1 percent annually during the l990s.
Employment growth in other behavioral sciences has been virtually nonexistent
during the late l980s.~4 Assuming a 1-percent growth rate results in approximately 1,000
job openings in the year 2000, this is in line with 1987 production of approximately 900
Ph.D.s.
Physician/Scientists
The current number of employee physician/scientists is estimated by the committee
to be in the range of 15,000 to 20,000. Given historical trends in public and private
biomedical R&D funding, it is probable that demand for physician/scientists will grow
substantially in the l990s.~5 However, it is difficult to project accurately the long-term
labor market for physician/scientists because of the data deficiencies cited above. In
addition, if demand for basic biomedical scientists continues to grow (as the committee
projects), it is possible that physician/scientists will be asked to supply some of the basic
science research effort in the biomedical field. The committee's recommendation to
examine the issue of post-M.D. basic science training is consistent with this scenario (see
Chapters 4 and 5~.
reestimates from the Survey of Doctorate Recipients for total employment of other
behavioral scientists was 12,478 in 1983 and 12,736 in 1987.
15Real funding for health-related R&D has been doubling approximately every 12 years
since 1960. See Table B-7 in Volume II of this report.
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
job openings
