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SUMMARY OF EMPLOYMENT TRENDS 99

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Table A-1. Occupational Employment in Dedicated Biotechnology Companies, 1989 Occupation Planned Total Shortage Hires Total Employed as % of as % of Employed Ph.D.s EmaloYed Employed BIOTECHNOLOGY SPECIALTIES Molecular Genetics 724 340 2.7% 13.8% Classical Genetics 42 20 5 ~ 1% 15 .3% Industrial Microbiology 311 72 9.8% 29~3% General Microbiology 665 248 1 . 2% 1 0 .1 % Human/Animal Cell Biology 471 198 3~0% 10~1% Plant Cell Biology 86 45 4~5% 13~4% Human/Animal Molecular Biology 508 309 97X 21~77~ Plant Molecular Biology 90 55 3.7X 11~0% HuTan/Animal Biology 246 87 3~4% 11.5X Plant Biology 42 25 4~0% 15.8% Pharmacology 209 93 11.9% 25~9% Toxicology 73 17 17.8% 29.7% Enzymology 81 59 11~9% 27.2% Immunology 532 216 7.9% 20.8% other biology 154 39 2~5% 15~3% Analytical Biochemistry 377 156 3.9X 20.5% General Biochemistry 1042 498 6.0% 17~7Yo Other Chemistry 1397 644 5.0% 21.7X Other B i otechno l ogy Spec i a l t i es 369 163 3 ~ 7X 43 . 0% TOTAL 7420 3282 5 . 4% 19 ~ 4% OTHER SCIENTISTS Medical Science, MD 66 0 0.0% 0~0% Medical Science, non MD 104 18 0.0% 65.8% Health Physics 3 0 0.0% 0.0% Agricultural Sciences 73 27 3.8% 3.8% Other Physical Sciences 191 43 11.5% 16.1% Behavioral/Social Sciences 310 67 3.0% 3~0% Computer Sciences 655 59 1 ~ 7X 1 ~ 7% Mathematics 115 31 22.7~; 16.2% TOTAL 1517 246 6.5% 11.4% TOTAL SC I ENT I STS 8937 3527 5 . 5% 18. 8% ENGINEERS Biochemical Engineer 170 0 9.1% 30.6% Bioengineer 279 0 14.6% 25.6% B i oprocess Eng i neer 1 15 0 3. 7% 50. 0X Other Engineers 2337 0 2. 0% 12 . 4% TOTAL ENGINEERS 2901 0 3.7X 16.4% TOTAL TECHNICIANS 5597 0 3.6% 19~4% OTHER EMPLOYMENT 36550 TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 53985 NOTE: Shortages and new hires for engineers and technicians are computed on total employment; for scientists the base is Ph.D. employment. Shortages are defined as unfilled vacancies for 90 days or longer. SOURCE: NSF Survey of Dedicated Biotechnology Companies, 1989. 100

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Table A-2. Total and R&D Employment by Employment Sector, 1973-1987, Biomedical Scientists Aca- Post - Se l f - Year Tota l demi c doe Labs Govn I ndus Entoil Non- -. orof i t Tote l 1973 43244 25471 3607 1031 4338 5369 518 1431 1293 186 1975 50088 28332 5369 994 4517 6662 840 1948 1232 194 1977 54234 30384 6312 1040 4568 6893 862 -2297 1543 335 1979 61649 33566 7268 1079 5080 8455 1178 2726 1858 439 1981 68039 36482 8026 1236 5398 9928 1857 2799 2088 225 1983 70471 36963 7827 661 5988 11819 1910 2946 2102 255 1985 78687 41032 8364 783 6479 13706 2254 3307 2460 302 1987 84434 43025 8172 909 7049 15928 2634 3629 2651 437 Growth 4~9% 3a8% 6~0% ~0~9% 3~5% 8a 1% 12~3% 6~9% 5 a3% 6~3 R&D 1973 23188 9915 3403 926 3094 4110 ! 20 648 1013 58 1975 25955 10292 4776 - 933 3107 4949 53 861 954 32 1977 29378 12523 5590 977 2936 5084 45 1035 1 146 42 1979 34554 15015 6103 916 3321 6247 110 1383 1404 56 1981 38807 16628 7183 1130 3529 7196 126 1272 1723 20 1983 39034 16910 6B28 621 3608 8283 207 1031 1529 17 1985 43595 19607 6924 698 3818 9382 283 1 092 1780 1 1 1987 511 10 22751 7346 746 4670 12359 328 1 143 1749 19 Growth 5~8% 6~1% 5~6% -1~5% 3~0% 8~2% 22~1% 4~1% 4~0% -7~6 Percent R&D ~ - 1973 53~6% 38~9% 94~4% 89~8% 71~3% 76~5% 3~9% 45~3% 78~4% 30~9 1975 51~8% 36~3% 88~9% 93~8% 68~8% 74~3% 6~3% 44~2% 77~4% 16~5 1977 54~2% 41~2% 88~6% 93~9% 64~3% 73~8% 5~2% 45~0% 74~3% 12~6 1979 56~0% 44~7% 84~0% 84~9X 65~4% 73~9% 9~3% 50~7% 75~5% 12~7 1981 57~0% 45~6% 89~5% 91~4% 65~4% 72~5% 6~8% 45~4% 82~5% 8~9 1983 55 ~ 4% 45 ~ Rio 87e 2% 93 ~ 9% 60 ~ 3% 70 ~ 1% 10 ~ 8% 35 ~ 0% 72 ~ rx 6 ~ 7 1985 55~4% 47~8% 82~8% 89~1% 58~9% 68~4% 12~6% 33~0% 72~4% 3~7 1987 60~5% 52.9% 89~9% 82a 1% 66~2% 77~6% 12~5% 31 ~5% 66~0% 4~4 SOURCE: 1973-1987 Survey of Doctorate Recipients. 101

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Table A-3. Total and R&D Employment by Employment Sector, 1973-1987, Noncl inical Psychologists Aca- Post - Se l f - Non- Year Totat dernic doe Labs Govn Indus Earl Hosp profit Other Tota l 1973 13159 9452 259 0 1083 999 323 269 562 212 1975 15209 10863 398 0 1170 1218 401 470 560 129 1977 15711 10905 394 0 1404 1344 443 447 519 255 1979 16314 11538 527 0 1164 1355 321 401 574 434 1981 18496 12586 511 0 1235 1826 905 507 631 295 1983 19025 12404 302 0 1320 2258 1328 629 451 333 1985 19694 13221 fi93 0 1189 1924 1270 585 667 245 1987 20510 13058 666 0 1724 1745 1655 555 858 249 Growth 3~2% 2~3% 7~0% 3~4% 4~1% 12.4% 5~3% 3~1% 1~2 R&D 1973 4127 2072 251 0 657 464 47 119 416 101 1975 4310 1847 364 0 825 584 51 209 392 38 1977 4656 2106 348 0 909 740 16 188 297 52 1979 5383 2809 442 0 830 694 32 160 339 77 1981 5390 2750 369 0 748 838 128 162 396 0 1983 5028 2619 262 0 650 890 215 146 216 29 1985 5040 2566 356 0 678 897 157 125 224 37 1987 6135 3086 561 0 1013 752 137 105 412 69 Growth 2~9% 2~9% 5~9% 3~1% 3~5% 8eO% ~0~9% -0~1% -2.6 Percent R&D 1973 31~4Xo 21~9% 96~9% 0.0% 60.rX 46.4% 14.5% 44~3% 74~0% 47~5 1975 28~3% 17.0% 91~4% 0.0% 70~5% 48.0% 12.7% 44~5% 70~0% 29.r 1977 29~6% 19.3% 88~3% 0~0% 64~7% 55~1% 3.6% 42~1% 57~1% 20.6 1979 33 ~ 0% 24. 3% 84. 0% 0. 0% 71 ~ 3% 51 ~ 2% 10. 0% 40 ~ 0% 59 ~ 1% 1 7e 7 1981 29~1% 21~9% 72.2% 0~0% 60.5% 45~9% 14.1% 31~9% 62~8% 0~0 1983 26 ~ 4% 21 ~ 1% 86 ~ 7% O. ~ 0% 49. 3% 39 ~ 4% 16 ~ 2% 23 ~ 2% 48 ~ 0% 8. 7 1985 25~6% 19~4% 60~0% 0~0% 57~0% 46.6% 12.3% 21~4% 33.6% 15.0 1987 29~9% 23~6% 84~2% 0.0% 58~7X 43.1% 8.3% 19~0% 48.0% 27.8 SOURCE: 1973- 1987 Survey of Doctorate Rec i pi ents . 102

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Table A-4. Total and R&D Employment by Employment Sector, 1973-1987, Other Behavioral Sciences Aca - Post - Se l f - Non- Year Tota l derni c doe Labs Gove I ndus Enol Hoso urof i t Other Tota l 1973 6689 6135 98 (1 121 42 52 12 187 42 1975 8351 7621 151 0 2tO 21 55 41 238 14 1977 10322 9239 246 0 311 40 81 46 306 53 1979 11127 9568 282 0 453 129 103 54 497 41 1981 11019 9477 199 0 463 57 183 37 457 146 1983 12749 11002 271 0 385 128 380 218 249 116 1985 12945 11009 256 0 218 193 466 373 304 126 1987 12928 10767 192 0 379 229 455 408 346 152 Growth 4~8% 4~1% 4~9% 8~5% 129X 168X 28~6% 4~5% 9~6 R&D 1973 1309 934 98 0 81 20 28 12 125 11 1975 1557 1062 116 0 150 9 12 15 188 4 1977 2171 1455 206 0 193 20 23 14 251 9 1979 2680 1653 200 0 297 81 14 10 411 15 1981 2333 1403 111 0 428 12 4 11 336 28 1983 2065 1456 161 0 179 2 45 9 151 62 1985 1967 1479 115 0 126 21 52 47 113 12 1987 2539 1688 136 0 232 147 78 74 177 8 Growth 4~8% 4~3% 2~4% 7~8% 15~3% 7~7X 13~9% 2~5% -2~2 Percent R&D 1973 19~6% 15~2% 100~0% 0~0% 67~3% 47~6% 53~3% 100~0% 66~9% 25.r 1975 18~6% 13~9% 77~0% 0~0% 71~6% 42~9% 22~6% 35~7% 79~0% 28~6 1977 21~0% 15~8% 83~9% 0~0% 61.9% 50~0% 28~4% 30~4% 82~0% 16~7 1979 24~1% 17~3% 71~1% 0~0% 65~5% 62~7% 13~6% 18~5% 82.rX 35~6 1981 21~2% 14~8% 55~9% 0~0% 92.4% 21~1% 2~2% 29.r/o 73~5% 18~9 1983 16~2% 13~2% 59~3% 0~0% 46~5% te7% 12~0% 4~0% 60~5% 53~2 1985 15~2% 13~4% 44~9% 0~0% 57~9% 11~0% 11~1% 12~7% 37~3% 9~9 1987 19~6% 15~7% 70~8% 0~0% 61~1% 64.0% 17~1% 18~2% 51~1% 5~2 SOURCE: 1 9n- 1987 Survey of Doctorate Rec i pi ents . 103

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Table A-5. Educational Achievements, 1975-1988, by Race (Nunbers in Thousands) Percent Percent Black Loss White Loss 18-year-olds, 19751 2 559 3,684 H.S. Dropouts aged 18 in 1975 142 25.4 542 14.7 H.S. Graduates 1975 417 3,142 Freshmen, 1975 4 80 80.8 1,065 66.1 Baccalaureates, 1979 60 25.0 803 24.6 Ph.D.s, 1988 0.81 98.7 23 97.1 SOURCES: (1) American Council on Education (ACE), 1981-81 Fact Book for Academic Administrators, Washington, D.C.: ACE, 1981, Tables. National Center for Educational Statistics (NCES), Digest of Educational Statistics of Educational Statistics, 1988, NCES, Washington, D.C.: 1988, Table 80. (3) ACE, op. cite, estimated from Tables 95 and 136. (4) NCES, op. cit., Table 182. (5) NAS/NRC, Doctorate Record File. Table A-6. Estimates of Losses at Selected Points in the Academic Pipelines into Biomedical and Behavioral Science Numbers Percent Loss Biomedical Behavioral Biomedical Behavioral 1980 Freshmen 97100 172600 1984 B.A./B.S. 37100 58600 61.8 66.0 1977-1979 1st Yr. Graduates 8451 9477 77.2 83.8 1985-1987 Ph.D.s 3970 4000 57.8 64.6 SOURCES: 1980 freshmen from Astin, A.W. et al., The American Freshman: National Norms for Fall, 1980, Los Angeles: Higher Education Research Institute, University of California at Los Angeles, 1980). All other sources are from Volume II of this report, Summary Tables 2 and 3. 104

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Table A-7. NIH Trainees/Fellows By Years Since Initiation of NRSA Research Training, R01 Grant Activity and Degree Type Years Since Init. of NRSA R01 Grant Applicants and Recipients Research Applicants Recipients Training Total Number Percent Number Percent M.D. Postdoctoral Fellows: 10 139 81 58.3% 45 32.4% 9 138 69 50~0% 43 31~2% 8 129 56 43 ~ 4~ 34 26 ~ 4% 7 153 61 39~9% 27 17~6% 6 131 45 34~4% 26 19~8% 5 120 34 28~3% 15 12~5% Ph.D. Postdoctoral Fellows: 10 779 424 54~4% 291 37~4% 9 669 339 50~7% 231 34~5% 8 m 395 51~1% 251 32~5% 7 764 325 42. 5% 199 26. 0% 6 669 243 36~3Xo 144 21~5% 5 505 144 28 ~ 5% 82 16. 2% M.D. Postdoctoral Trainees: 10 451 150 33.3% 94 20.8% 9 658 181 27~5% 91 13.8% 8 793 189 23 ~ 8% 90 1 1 . 3% 7 884 158 1 7e 9% 87 9. 8% 6 865 124 14 ~ 3% 62 7e 2% 5 909 77 8. 5% 34 3 ~ 7X Ph.D. Postdoctoral Trainees: 10 742 320 43~1% 201 27.1% 9 909 404 44~4% 223 24~5% 8 1086 398 36. 6% 207 19e 1% 7 1116 354 31~7% 179 16~0% 6 1044 248 23. 8% 125 12 ~ 0% 5 1047 213 20~3% 108 10~3% SOURCE: Quantum Research Corporation. 105

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Table A-8. Historical and Projected Job Openings and Ph.D. Supply in the Biomedical Sciences, 1973- 1995 Emp(oy- Year ment Death and Retire- Net Total PhD Vacancy ment Attrition Dent Mobi litY Growth Openings Output Ratio Rate Rate Ref resh- Historical 1973 39637 1974 42101 645 396 2464 3506 3417 1.03 0.086 0.026 1975 44719 691 421 2618 3730 3515 1.06 0.083 0.026 1976 46293 740 447 1574 2761 3578 0.77 0.080 0.027 1977 47922 m 463 1629 2865 3465 0.83 0.075 0.027 1978 51049 806 479 3127 4413 3518 1.25 0.073 0.027 1979 54381 866 510 3332 4708 3644 1.29 0.071 0.027 1980 57128 930 544 2747 4220 3823 1.10 0.070 0.027 1981 60013 985 571 2885 4441 3846 1.15 0.067 0.027 1982 61314 1043 600 1301 2944 3960 0.74 0.066 O.Q27 1983 62644 1074 613 1330 3017 3788 0.80 0.062 0.028 1984 66373 1106 626 3729 5461 3902 1.40 0.062 0.028 1985 70323 1181 664 3950 5795 3787 1.53 0.057 0.028 1986 73232 1261 703 2909 4873 3864 1.26 0.055 0.028 1987 76262 1323 732 3030 5085 3969 1.28 0.054 0.028 Projected (Mid-Case Scenario) 1988 80240 1388 763 3978 6129 3969 1.54 0.052 0.028 1989 82330 1460 802 2090 4353 3969 1.10 0.049 0.028 1990 85870 1564 823 3540 5927 3969 1.49 0.048 0.029 1991 88880 1582 859 3010 5451 3969 1.37 0.046 0.028 1992 91990 1593 889 3110 5592 3969 1.41 0.045 0.028 1993 95360 1601 920 3370 5891 3969 1.48 0.043 0.027 1994 98720 1788 954 3360 6102 3969 1.54 0.042 0.029 1995 102460 1816 987 3740 6543 3969 1.65 0.040 0.028 SOURCE: Historical employment data are from Appendix Table A-2; historical Ph.D. data are from Table B3 of Volume II. All other values estimated by NRC. 106

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Table A-9. Historical and Projected Job Openings and Ph.D. Supply in Nonclinical Psychology, 1973- 1995 Death and Ret resh- Employ- Retire- Net Total PhD Vacancy ment Attrition Year sent meet_ Mobi litv Growth _Openinss Output Ratio Rate _ Rate _ Historical 1973 6591 1084 1974 7352 94 198 761 1052 1 152 0.91 0. 175 0.044 1975 8200 1tO 221 848 1179 1187 0.99 0.161 0.045 1976 9090 129 246 890 1265 1307 0.97 0.159 0.046 1977 10076 150 273 986 1409 1256 1.12 0.138 0.047 1978 10453 174 302 377 853 1152 0.74 0.114 0.047 1979 10845 188 314 392 893 1154 0.77 0.110 0.048 1980 10832 203 325 -13 516 1094 0.47 0.101 0.049 1981 10820 211 325 -12 523 1114 0.47 0.103 0.049 1982 11619 219 325 799 1343 1030 1.30 0.095 0.050 1983 12478 243 349 859 1451 1011 1.43 0.087 0.051 1984 12583 271 374 105 750 954 0.79 0.076 0.052 1985 12689 282 377 106 766 913 0 .84 O. . 073 0 . 052 1986 12712 294 381 23 698 955 0.73 O.075 O.053 1987 12736 304 381 24 709 882 0 .80 0 . 069 0 . 054 Projected (Mid-Case Scenario) 1988 12900 308 395 164 867 882 0.98 0.069 0.055 1989 13070 312 400 170 882 882 1.00 0.068 0.055 1990 13260 303 410 190 903 882 1 .02 0.067 O.055 1991 13470 293 394 210 897 882 1.02 0.067 0.052 1992 13700 286 382 230 898 882 1 . 02 0 . 065 0 . 050 1993 13950 283 373 250 906 882 1 .03 0.064 0.048 1994 14220 297 389 270 956 882 1.08 0.063 0.049 1995 14510 307 405 290 1002 882 1 .14 0.062 0.050 . SOURCE: Historical employment data are from Appendix Table A-4; historical Ph.D. data are from Table C10 of Volume II. All other values estimated by NRC. 107

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Table A-10. Historical and Pro Sciences, 1973-1995 jected Job-Openings and Ph.D. Supply in Other Behavioral Death and Refresh- Employ- Retire- Net Total PhD Vacancy ment Attrition ment ment Mobility Growth Openings Output Ratio Rate Rate Historical 19 in 12900 1974 13823 184 387 923 1494 1537 0.97 0.119 0.044 1975 14811 208 415 988 1611 1607 1.00 0.116 0.045 1976 15062 233 444 251 929 1590 0.58 0.107 0.046 1977 15317 249 452 255 956 1637 0.58 0.109 0.047 1978 15550 264 460 233 957 1591 0.60 0.104 0.047 1979 15787 280 467 237 983 1582 0.62 0.102 0.048 1980 16850 296 474 1063 1832 1517 1.21 0.096 0.049 1981 17985 328 506 1135 1968 1615 1.22 0.096 0.049 1982 18350 363 540 365 1268 1477 0.86 0.082 0.050 1983 18723 384 551 373 1308 1545 0.85 0.084 0.051 1984 18911 406 562 188 1156 1504 0.77 0.080 0.052 1985 19101 424 567 190 1181 1393 0.85 0.074 0.052 1986 19469 443 573 368 1384 1367 1.01 0.072 0.053 1987 19844 465 584 375 1425 1366 1.04 0.070 0.054 Projected (Mid-Case Scenario) 1988 20030 470 556 186 1211 1366 0.89 0.069 0.052 1989 20220 474 566 190 1230 1366 0.90 0.068 0.052 1990 20400 471 634 180 1285 1366 0.94 0.068 0.05S 1991 20600 455 606 200 1261 1366 0.92 0.067 0.052 1992 20790 444 583 190 1217 1366 0.89 0.066 0.050 1993 21000 438 564 210 1212 1366 0.89 0.066 0.048 1994 21210 460 581 210 1251 1366 0.92 0.065 0.050 1995 21420 474 599 210 1283 1366 0.94 0.064 0.051 SOURCE: Historical employment data are from Appendix Table A-3; historical Ph.D. data are from Table C10 of Volume II. All other values estimated by NRC. 108

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Tabl e A- 1 1 . T rends i n N I H/ADAMHA M . D . Postdoctora l Trainees/Fellows and Full-Time Faculty in Clinical Departments, 1977- 1987 Nurser of Ful l -T ime Trainees/ Cl inical Year Fel lows Facul ty 1961 2770 7201 1962 3871 7698 1963 4220 8909 1964 4587 9474 1965 4921 10649 1966 5081 11447 1967 4968 13420 1968 5189 15654 1969 5222 15986 1970 5030 16806 1971 4572 19256 1972 4401 21456 1973 4314 23884 1974 3543 24950 1975 3127 26846 1976 2918 28603 1977 2203 30349 1978 1879 32622 1979 1780 34057 1980 1906 3666S 1981 1938 37716 1982 2026 40148 1983 2108 41938 1984 2184 43443 1985 226S 45007 1986 2162 47193 1987 NA 48834 SOURCE: Computed from the NIH Trainee and Fellow File (TFF) and the American Association of Medical Co l l eges Facu l ty Roster . 109

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Table A-14. Doctoral Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists Aged 35 and Younger, 1977 and 1987, Reporting Current Postdoctoral Study Doctoral Biomedical Scientists 19 in 1987 Percent Percent Total Postdoc Percent 2 Total Postdoc Percent 2 Known Study Deviation Known Study Deviation Men Asian 756 40.34 15.79 996 19.38 -11.29 Black 84 34.52 9.97 129 63.57 32.89 Other 148 27.70 3.15 246 33.33 2.66 White 12681 21.65 -2.91 10029 30.26 -0.41 Women Asian 334 50.30 25.74 563 38.54 7.87 Black 45 26.67 2.11 56 25.00 -5.67 Other 31 16.13 -8.43 100 39.00 8.33 White 2955 29.71 5.16 4437 31.91 1.24 Total 17034 24.56 10.0 ~ 16556 30.67 12.3 Doctoral Behavioral Scientists Men Asian 85 3.53 -0.87 124 4.03 -0.02 Black 111 0.90 -3.50 77 18.18 14.13 Other 143 22.38 17.98 167 8.98 4.93 White 8649 3.98 -0.42 4624 4.35 0.30 Women Asian 66 9.09 4.69 108 9.26 5.21 Black 96 6.25 1.85 216 4.17 0.12 Other 31 0.00 -4.40 139 6.47 2.43 White 3280 4.76 0.36 4155 3.03 -1.02 Total 12461 4.40 6.623 9610 4.05 4.653 (1) Excludes those reporting retired or not reporting. (2) Row percent minus total percent. (3) Standard deviation of the column. SOURCE: NRC Survey of Earned Doctorates. 112

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Table A-15. Doctoral BioTedical and Behavioral Scientists, 1977 and 1987, Reporting Full-time Employment in Science or Engineering Biomedical Doctorate Recipients 1977 Percent Total NIH Percent 2 Known Support Deviation 1987 Percent Total NIH Percent 2 Known support Deviation Men; Asian 2134 95.97 4.18 5371 98.42 6.16 Black 484 95.04 3.25 751 94.41 2.15 Other 507 87.38 -4.41 911 96.93 4.67 White 37766 94.60 2.81 54491 94.48 2.22 Women Asian 437 77.35 -14.44 1407 86.14 -6.12 Black 115 86.09 -5.70 298 81.B8 -10.38 Other 75 64.00 -27.79 247 85.43 -6.84 White 6423 75.39 -16.40 13756 81.60 -10.66 Total 47941 91.79 10.673 77232 92.26 6.433 Behavioral Doctorate Recipients Men Asian 427 97.89 7.68 779 93.58 8.02 Black 320 89.06 -1.15 722 91.41 5.85 Other 308 93.83 3.62 841 90.61 5.05 White 29798 94.55 4.34 40013 91.02 5.46 Women Asian 137 88.32 -1.89 405 72.10 -13.46 Black 215 84.65 -5.56 678 86.58 1.02 Other 92 80.43 -9.77 433 75.06 -10.50 White 9215 76.00 -14.21 20502 74.64 -10.92 Total 40512 90.21 6.973 64373 85.56 8.323 (1) Excludes those reporting retired or not reporting. (2) Row percent minus total percent. (3) StaFdard deviation of the column. SOURCE: NRC Survey of Earned Doctorates. 113

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Table A-16. Death and Retirement Rates Biological Retirement Death Age Rate Rate <30 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 >=70 0 0.0011 0 0.0017 0 0.0027 0 0.0038 0 0.0063 0 0.0114 0.0026 0.0179 0.0753 0.0271 0.1714 0.0378 1 0.05 SOURCE: Charlotte V. Kuh and Roy Radner, Mathematicians in Academia: 1975-2000, A Report to the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.: Conference Board of the Mathematical Sciences, 1980, pp. 84-86. Table A-17. Estimated Quit Rates for Biomedical Scientists, 1983-1987 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Biomed. Total Bio. Sci. Annual Annual RD & Postdoc Total PhDs per Quits R&D Quits Biorned. Mgt.RD Biomeda Retired PhDs -Retired 1000 Sci. (a) (%) <=5 31538 19695 17309 139 202517 202378 241 6-10 48171 29975 2419 373 219649 219276 231 -1.79 -8.18 11-15 49162 26230 531 990 216355 215365 231 0.00 -6~69 16-20 34190 16674 135 2279 156309 154030 223 -1.38 -5.06 21-25 18257 8406 24 4041 90762 86721 211 -2.20 -4.52 26-30 12726 5383 36 6428 66917 60489 211 0.03 -3.21 31-35 8567 3790 24 13162 55630 42468 202 -1.67 0.10 36-40 2743 1095 7 11772 26291 14519 189 -2.60 -6.51 41+ 1295 495 0 6507 11286 4779 271 15.40 13.24 TOTAL 206649 111743 20485 45691 1045716 1000025 Average annual quit rate -0.8% SOURCE: 1983, 1985 and 1987 Survey of Doctorate Recipients. 114

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Table A-18. Surmary Projections in Biomedical Sciences Biomedical Sensitivity Model Model Assumptions High _Mid Low 1. federal health R&D funding growth 4.0% 2. Private health R&D funding growth 13.0% 3. Other health R&D funding growth 4.0% 2.7% 0.2% 9.0% 5.0X 3.0% 2.0% 4. Grad and undergrad, blamed enrollment 1.~% 0.0% -1.0% 5. "Other" biomed R&D employment growth 3.5% 6. "Other" biomed non R&D employ. growth 10.0% 8.0% 5.0% Projected Employment of Biomedical Scientists, 1973-2000 (in 100s of workers) Low Case _ . ~ . Mid Case Total R&D % R&D High Case Year Total R&D ~ R" Totat R&D -Jo R&D Total Ran % R&D 1973 396.4 197.8 49.9X 396.4 197.8 49.9X 396.4 197.8 49.94 1975 447.2 211.8 47.4% 447.2 211.8 47.4% 447.2 211.8 47.4% 1977 479.2 237.9 49.6% 479.2 237.9 49.6% 479.2 237.9 49.6% 1979 543.8 284.5 52.3% 543.8 284.5 52.3% 543.8 284.5 52.3% 1981 600.1 316.2 52.77` 600.1 316.2 52.7% 600.1 316.2 52.7% 1983 626.4 322.1 51.4X 626.4 322.1 51.4% 626.4 322.1 51.4X 1985 703.2 366.7 52.1% 703.2 366.7 52.1% 703.2 366.7 52.1% 1987 762.6 437.6 57.4% 762.6 437.6 57.4% 762.6 437.6 57.4% 1988 786.4 451.2 57.4% 802.4 464.0 57.8% 816.6 475.3 58.2% 1989 791.6 459.0 58.0% 823.3 484.1 58.8% 851.6 506.5 59.5% 1990 811.1 466.8 57.6% 858.7 504.2 58.7% 901.7 538.1 59.7% 1991 825.0 474.6 57.5% 888.8 524.4 59.0% 947.8 570.9 60.2% 1992 839.3 482.4 57.5% 919.9 545.2 59.3% 996.8 605.9 60.8% 1993 855.2 490.4 57.3% 953.6 566.9 59.4% 1050.7 643.9- 61.3% 1994 869.6 498.5 57.3% 987.2 589.8 59.7X 1107.5 685.7 61.9% 1995 886.5 506.8 57.2% 1024.6 614.1 59.9% 1171.5 732.1 62.5% 1996 894.9 515.4 57.6~ 1055.3 640.1 60.6% 1232.7 783.7 63.6% 1997 913.2 524.3 57.4% 1097.9 668.1 60.8% 1310.3 841.4 64.2% 1998 928.8 533.5 57.4% 1140.0 698.3 61.3% 1392.5 906.0 65.1% 1999 947.4 543.1 57.3% 1187.7 731.0 61.6% 1486.0 978.4 65.8X 2000 973.6 553.1 56.8% 1245.6 766.5 61.5% 1596.4 1059.6 66.4SG Growth Rates: 73-87 4.8% 5.8% 4.8% 5.8% 4.8% 5.B% 87-91 2.0% 2.0% 3.9% 4.6X 5.6% 6.9X 87-20 1.9% 1.8% 3.8% 4.4% 5.8% 7.0% NOTE: This table does not include those in postdoctoral training positions or who are unemployed. SOURCE: Estimated by NRC. 115

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Table A-19. Historical and Projected Vacancy Ratios, 1973-2000, Biomedical Scientists Annual Averages Total R&D Post- Year Vacancies PhDs Ratio Vacancies does Ratio 1973-78 3455 3499 0.99 2344 2868 0.82 1978-83 3957 3763 1.05 2863 3788 0.76 1983-87 4846 3862 1.25 4157 4072 1.02 1987-95 Low 4047 3662 1.11 3086 3900 0.79 Mid 5955 3969 1.50 4626 3900 1.19 High 8063 4298 1.88 6386 3900 1.64 NOTE: Assumes that Ph.D. production changes in proportion to enrollment assumptions and postdoc production remains constant. SOURCE: Estimated by NRC. 116

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Table A-20. Summary Projections for Nonclinical Psychology Sensitivity Model Model Assumptions Graduate student enrollment 2. Industrial employment growth High Mid Low 1.0% 0.0X -1.0% 4.0X 3.0% 2.0% Projected Employment of Nonclinical Psychologists, 1973-2000 (in 100s of workers) Low Case Mid Case High Case Year Total R&D % R&D Total R&D % R&D total R&D % R&D 1973 129.0 38.8 30.0% 129.0 38.8 30.0% 129.0 38.8 30.0% 1975 148.1 39.5 26.6% 148.1 39.5 26.6% 148.1 39~5 26.6% 1977 153.2 43.1 28.1% 153.2 43.1 28.1% 153.2 43.1 28.1% 1979 157.9 49.4 31.3% 157.9 49.4 31.3% 157.9 49.4 31.3% 1981 179.9 50.2 27.9X 179.9 50.2 27.9% 179.9 50.2 27.9% 1983 187.2 47.7 25.5% 187.2 47.7 25.5% 187.2 47.7 25.5% 1985 191.0 46.8 24.5% 191.0 46.8 24.5% 191.0 46.8 24.5% 1987 198.4 55.7 28.1% 198.4 55.7 28.1% 198.4 55.7 28.1% 1988 200.0 54.9 27.5% 200.3 55.0 27.5% 200.7 55.2 27.5% 1989 195 .5 54.0 27. 6% 202.2 55 .5 27. 4% 204.9 56. 1 27. 4% 1990 195.2 53.9 27.6% 204.0 55.9 27.4% 209.2 57.1 27.3% 1991 194.9 53.9 27.6% 206.0 56.3 27.4% 213.6 58.1 27.2% 1992 194.8 53.8 27.6% 207.9 56.8 27.3% 218.2 59.2 27.1% 1993 194.7 53.8 27.6% 210.0 57.2 27.3% 223.0 60.2 27.0% 1994 194.7 53.8 27.6% 212.1 57.7 27.2% 227.9 61.3 26.9% 1995 194.8 53.7 27.6% 214.2 58.2 27.2% 232.9 62.5 26.8% 1996 194.9 53.7 27.6% 216.4 58.7 27.1% 238.1 63.6 26.rX 1997 195.1 53.7 27.5% 218.7 59.2 27.0% 243.4 64.8 26.6% 1998 195.4 53.8 27.5% 221 .0 59.7 27.0% 249.0 66. 1 26e5% 1999 195.8 53.8 27.5% 223.4 60.2 26.9% 254.7 67.4 26.5% 2000 199. 2 54 . 5 27. 3% 225 .9 60 . 7 26. 9% 260 .6 68. 7 26. 4% Growth Rates: 73-87 3.1% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6% 87-91 -0.4% -0.9% 0.9% 0.3% 1.9% 1.0% 87-20 0.0% -0.2% 1.0% oryx 2.1% 1.6% NOTE: This table does not include postdoctoral employment or unemployment. SOURCE: Estimated by NRC. 117

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Table A-21. Historical and Projected Vacancy Ratios, 1973-2000, Nonclinical Psychologists Annual Averages Total R&D Post- Year Vacancies PhDs Ratio Vacancies does Ratio 1973-78 1189 1592 0.75 385 196 1.96 1978-83 1386 1555 0.89 359 226 1.59 1983-87 1291 1435 0.90 422 261 1.61 1990-95 Low 995 1260 0.79 320 300 1.07 Mid 1252 1366 0.92 380 300 1.27 High 1551 1479 1.05 449 300 1.50 NOTE: Assumes that Ph.D. production changes in proportion to enrollment assumptions and postdoc production remains constant. Graduate model SOURCE: Estimated by NRC . 118

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Table A-22. Seminary Projections for Other Behavioral Scientists Mode l Assunpt i ons 1 . G radua t e s t udent en ro l l ment 2. "All other" employ tent growth High Mid Low 1.0% 0.0% -1.0X R&D 7. 0% 5 . 0% 3. 0X NonR&D 15. 0X 10. 0% 7. 0% Pro jected Employment of Other Behavioral Scientists, 1973-2000 ( in 100s of workers) Low Case Total R&D % R&D Total R&D % R&D Total R&D % R&D Mid Case H i gh Case 1973 65~9 12.1 18~4% 65~9 12~ 1 18~4% 65 ~9 12~ 1 18~4% 1975 82~0 14~4 17~6% 82~0 14~4 17~6% 82~0 14~4 17~6% 1977 100~8 19~6 19~5% 100~8 19~6 19~5% 100~8 19~6 19~5% 1979 108~5 24~8 22~9% 108~5 24~8 22~9% 108~5 24~8 229 1981 108~2 22~2 20~5% 108~2 22~2 20~5% 108~2 22~2 20~5% 1983 124~8 19~0 15~3% 124~8 19~0 15~3% 124~8 19~0 15~3% 1985 126~9 18~5 146X 126~9 18~5 14~6% 126~9 18~5 14~6% 1987 127~4 24~0 18X 127~4 24~0 18~9% 127~4 24~0 18 1988 126~8 23~2 18~3% 129~0 23~6 18~3% 131~4 24~0 18~2% 1989 126~4 23~2 18~3% 130~7 23~9 18~3% 135~8 24~7 18~2% 1990 126.1 23e 1 18~4% 132~6 24~3 18~3% 140~6 25~6 18~2% 1991 125~9 23~2 18.4% t34~7 24~7 18.4X 145~9 26~4 18.1% 1992 125~8 23~2 18.4% 137.0 25~2 18~4% 151 ~6 27~4 18e 1% 1993 125.9 23~2 18~4% 139.5 25~6 18~4% 158~0 28~4 17~9% 1994 126~0 23~3 18~5% 142~2 26.1 18a4% 165~0 29~4 17~8% 1995 126~4 23~3 18~5% 145e 1 26~6 18~3% 172~8 30~5 17~6% 1996 126~8 23~4 185X 148~3 27~1 18~3% 181~5 31~7 17~4% 1997 127~4 23~5 18~4% 151 a8 27~7 18~2% - 191 ~ 1 32~9 17~2% 1998 128~2 23~6 18~4% 155~7 28~3 18~2% 201~9 34~2 16~9% 1999 129.1 23~7 18~4% 159~9 28~9 18.1% 213~9 35~6 16~6% 2000 130~2 23~8 18~3% 164~4 29~5 18~0% 227~4 37.1 16~3% Growth Rates: 73-87 4~8% 5~% 4~8% 5~0% 4~8% 5~0% 87-91 -03X ~0~9% 1~4% 0~7X 3~4% 2~4X 87-20 0~2% -0.1% 2~0% 1 a6% 4~6% 3~4% NOTE: This table does not include postdoctoral erployrnent or unemployment. SOURCE: Estimated by NRC. 119

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Table A-23. Historical and Projected Vacancy Ratios, 1973-2000, Other Behavioral Scientists Annual Averages Total R&D Year Vacancies Post- Ratio Vacancies does Ratio 1973-78 1152 1211 0.95 289 97 2.97 1978-83 930 1093 0.85 120 124 0.97 1983-87 875 943 0.93 185 120 1.54 1987-95 Low 649 814 0.80 142 120 1.18 Mid 927 882 1.05 191 120 1.59 High 1353 955 1.42 250 120 2.08 _ NOTE: Assumes that Ph.D. production changes in proportion to enrollment assumptions and postdoc production remains constant. Graduate model SOURCE: Estimated by NRC. 120

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Table A-24. Classifications of Fields BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES * BASIC BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES General Medical and * Anatomy Mathematics Biological Sciences Physical Sciences Anatomy Engineering. Other Anatomy * Anatomy Histology Embryology * Biochemistry Pathology Chemistry Human and Animal * Biophysics Experi x ntal Pathology Physiology * Microbiology Cell Biology Biochemistry Biochemistry * Pathology Embryology Biomaterials Molecular Biology * Pharmacology Chemistry Biomathematics * Physiology b * Biology Polymer Chemistry Biometrics and Biostatistics Multidisciplinary Medicinal Chemistry Biomedical Engineering Radiation, Nonclin. Radiobiology Organic Chemistry Biophysics Entomology Entomology Physical Chemistry Environmental Sciences * Genetics Nutrition Inorganic Chemistry Environmental Health * Nutrition Molecular Biology General Biological Sciences Hydrobiology Zoology PhYsics/Ensineerins Human and Animal Genetics Ecology Botany Immunology * Cell Biology Developmental Biology Biophysics Parasitology * Zoology Neurobiology Radiation Physics Microbiology Botany Teratology Biomedical Engineering Bacteriology * Biology NEC Aging Process Environ. Engineering Neurosciences * Other Gen. Med. Oral Biology Physics Human and Animal Pathology and Bio. Sci. Engineering Pharmaceutical Chemistry * Environ. Sciences * Genetics Human and Animal * Toxicology Other Health-Related Fields Pharmacology Genetics Pharmacy Mathematics. Physical Mutagenesis Statistics/EpidemioloaY/ Public Health Sciences. Engineering. computer Sciences Epidemiology Other * Microbiology/ Hospital Administration Immunology * Biostatistics Veterinary Medicine Mathematics * Epidemiology Zoology Chemistry Microbiology Information Sciences Cell Biology/Cytology Physics Bacteriology Mathematics Nutritional Sciences/ Earth and Related Immunology Statistics Dietetics Sciences Mycology Computer Sciences Food Science and Agricultural Fields Parasitology Technology Engineering Virology Endocrinology Engineering, Toxicology Health-Related * Pharmacology Other Biological Sciences Medicine and Surgery Other Health-Related Pharmacology Dentistry Fields Optometry, Ophthalmology * Physiology General Health, Medical * Biostatistics Sciences * Epidemiology Physiology Other Health/Medical Sciences Reproductive Physiology Community and Endocrinology Environmental Health Communicative Sciences Physiological Optics Accident Prevention Disease Prevention * Toxicology and Control Maternal & Child Health Toxicology Dental Public Health Aquatic Mental Health Environmental Hospital & Medical Care Forensic Other Community Health Inhalation Radiological Health Occupational/Safety Water Pollution Control Air Pollution Environmental Engineering Food Protection Occupational Health Health Administration Social Work Pharmacy Other Health-Rel. Profs. Other Env. Health Fields 121

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Table A-24. Classifications of Fields (continued) ~ . . _ _ NIH. ADAMHA~ NAS" BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES Psychology General and Experimental Comparative and Animal Physiological Developmental Personality Gerontological Social-Psychological Aspects Abnormal Clinical Education, Counseling, and Guidance Other Psychological Other Behavioral Sciences Sociology Social Psychology-Sociological Aspects Anthropology Social Sciences and Related Disciplines Other Fields CLINICAL SCIENCES Internal Medicine Allergy Pediatrics Geriatrics Obstetrics-Gynecology Radiology Surgery Otorhinolaryngology Ophthalmology Anesthesiology Neuropsychiatry Neurology Psychiatry Preventive Medicine Other Clinical Medicine Veterinary Medicine Clinical Dentistry NURSING RESEARCH BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES Psycho l osY Experimental and General Psychophysics Physiological Psycho l ogy and Psychobi o l ogy Developmental and Child Personality Social Community and Ecological Other Behavioral Sciences Health Administration and Public Health Education and Guidance Sociology Demography or Population Dynamics Anthropology Linguistics Social Sciences and Related Disciplines Economics - Political Science Bioethics Social/Behavioral Sciences CLINICAL SCIENCES Psychiatry Other Clinical Medicine Nursing Social Work Clinical Psychology BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES Psychology General Clinical Cognitive Counseling and Guidance Developmental and Educational School Experimental Comparative Physiological Psychometrics Quantitative Social Industrial and Organizational Personality Human Engineering Behavior/Ethology Other Psychology Other Behavioral Sciences Anthropology Sociology Audiology and Speech Pathology * These fields correspond to those defined by the committee as the Basic Biomedical Sciences. See NRC (1975-81, 1977 Report, P. 29). a Since 1962, NIH has used a classification scheme called the Discipline/Specialty/Field Code (DSF) to classify areas of training for its trainees and fellows. The major categories of that scheme are shown in this table. They have been grouped into 4 broad areas of research that the committee has established for purposes of this study. b Most of the trainees in the Medical Scientist Training Program are classified in this category. c These fields represent the lexicon established by ADAMHA to classify areas of training for its NRSA trainees and fellows. d These fields are used by the National Research Council's Survey of Doctorates and Survey of Doctorate Recipients to identify fields of Ph.D. specialization and fields of employment. 122 .