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CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Committee's Investigation Findings Recommendations 1. THE ROLE OF NItSA PROGRAMS IN THE EDUCATION PIPELINE Overview The Education/Employment Pipeline The Structure of NRSA Training Programs A Statistical Overview of NRSA Training Programs Grant Applications and Awards by Trainees/Fellows Historical Trends 2. THE CURRENT MARKET FOR BIOMEDICAL AND BEHAVIORAL SCIENTISTS Overview The Changing Labor Market for Biomedical and Behavioral Scientists 1 973 - 1 987 Recent Trends in the Labor Market for Biomedical Sc dentists Recent Trends in the Labor Market for Behavioral Scientists Recent Trends in the Labor Market for Physician/Scientists Composition of the Labor Force 3. THE FUTURE LABOR MARKET FOR BIOMEDICAL AND BEHAVIORAL RESEARCH PERSONNEL Overview Prior Committee Projections and Current Methodology The Model The Future Labor Market for Biomedical Scientists X1 1 1 3 6 11 11 11 17 19 26 27 33 33 33 35 39 42 44 51 51 51 52 54
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The Future Labor Market for Behavioral Scientists The Future Labor Market for Physician/Scientists Prospects for the Longer Term: 1995 to the Year 2000 4. TOWARD MEASURING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF NRSA TRAINING PROGRAMS Overview The Aims and Effects of Training and Fellowship Programs The Evaluation of Training and Fellowship Programs A Framework for Program Evaluation A Special Note on the Training of Physician/Scientists 5. RECOMMENDATIONS Levels of NRSA Support Data Improvements, Needed Research, Program Evaluation and Administrative Infrastructure APPENDIX The Emerging Biotechnology Industry Data Needs for Program Evaluation Summary of Employment Trends · — X11 58 63 65 67 67 68 70 74 76 79 79 81 87 89 93 99