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2. BASIC BIOMEDICAL SCIENCES During the past year, the Committee and its advisory Panel on Basic Biomedical Sciences have reconsidered each of the recom- mendations in last year's report. Particular attention has been given,to I) updating the model projecting supply and demand for biomedical research personnel; 2) evaluating the impact that recent reductions in training grant support have had on graduate programs; and 3) identifying priority training fields in the biomedical sciences. In evaluating the impact of lost training grant support, the'Committee relied on findings from a detailed survey of all 1,324 basic biomedical science departments with doctoral programs and on impressions gathered on site visits to selected group of departments that had recently lost training grant support. In an attempt to identify priority training fields, consideration was given to statements received at the Committee's public hearing in February 1978 and to discussions that were held with several d iverse groups, including members of an NIH advisory council, a professional society executive committee, federal agency off icials responsible for setting training priorities, and other informed individuals. AS S E S SM ENT OF TH E CURRENT MARKE T FOR BAS IC BI OMED ICAL SCI ENT I STS Last year the Committee examined information on current employ- ment open rtunities for scientists with doctoral training in the biomedical fields. This information was obtained from a survey of 7,800 individuals who earned Ph.D. degrees in these fields between 1971 and 1975 (cited as "Survey of Recent Doctorate Recipients" ~ . Survey findings revealed that all but a few of these graduates were ut il i zing their doctoral training and that no ser ious unempl oyment problem wa s apparent . However, s ig ni f- icant increases were noted in both the number of biomedical Ph. D. recipients taking postdoctoral appo intments and the length of their postdoctoral training period. The Committee's concern over the growth in the postdoctoral pool was highl ighted in its 1977 report ~ A. 44 ): During a period ~1972-75 ~ when the number of biomedical Ph.D. 's awarded annually had in- creased very little, the total number of persons hot ding postdoctoral appo intments expanded at an annual rate o f more than 1 3 percent. This rapid growth ~ from 3, 039 30

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appointees in 1972 to 4,455 in 1975) came as a result of increases in both the number of graduates taking postdoctorals and the length of these appointments. A large percentage (42 percent) of these postdoctoral appointees said that they remained in that status because they could not find a more permanent position. As noted in a report to the Committee on the labor market for biomedical scientists (Freeman, 1977), the proportion of new biomedical Ph.D. recip- ients who are seeking jobs but are without specific prospects at the time of graduation has increased markedly since 1970. Projections from a model developed by the Committee to estimate future needs for biomedical scientists in the academic sector indicated that supply is likely to exceed demand sig- nificantly during the next 5 years. On the basis of these projections and the survey findings, the Committee recommended 1 ) a reduction in predoctoral support for research training in the basic biomedical sciences and 2) a stabilization of postdoctoral support in these fields. After comparing the employment pros- pects in different biomedical specialty fields, the Committee concluded that, with the exceptions of biomathematics/ bio- statistics and epidemiology, no fields should be given priority for predoctoral support. In April 1977, NIH reported that a survey of the market for biomedical scientists in all employment sectors, conducted for NIH by Westat, Inc ., showed that shortages of biomedical scientists existed in most fields in 1975 (NIH, 1977a). In almost every field, the number of unfilled positions exceeded the number of individuals still seeking positions. Hence, NIH concluded that substantial shortages ex isted . The shortages were reported to be more severe for M.D. 's with research training than for Ph.D.'s. These widespread shortages were contrary to the employment situation observed in most other scientif ic areas . In concluding from the Westat survey's result ts that manpower shortages existed in most biomedical fields in 1975, NIH relied heavily on the number of budgeted vacancies that remained un- filled in September 1975. Of the estimated 3,500 vacancies reported in May, 42 percent remained unfit led in September. The ma jor reason positions were not f illed was reported to be the lack of suitable e candidates. On the suppl y side, NIH reported -that most of the individuals completing programs between May and September 1975 found either a job or a postdoctoral appointment by September, al though 6 per- cent were stil ~ seeking positions . The Committee's findings agree with the NIH assessment of the market for M.D.'s but disagree with the NIH conclusion with respect to the market for biomedical Ph.D.'s. The discrepancies between NIH's and the Committee's assessments of the current market situation for biomedical Ph.D.'s are largely due to 31

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2) differing methodological approaches and interpretations of the data cold ected from both of the (committee' s surveys and from the NIH survey conducted by Westat. Some possible reasons for the differences are g iven below. In the Westat survey, postdoctoral posi t ions were counted as part of the demand . The Commi ttee bet ieves, however, that postdoctoral appointments are temporary - positions intended primarily for training and cannot be considered equivalent to faculty appointments or other more permanent posit ions, as they were in the Westat survey. Indeed, the Committee believes that a large portion of the individuals on postdoctoral appointments are candidates for permanent positions and thus should be counted on the supply side. The We stat survey asked the reason for not f it ~ ing the vacancies remaining in September, 1975. Was the lack of a suitable candidate the. major reason for not f illing the position? The answer has a bearing on the interpretation of the survey's results. Although verification is difficult due to the low response to the question, and unpublished data indicate considerable variation among f ields with respect to the ma jor reason, the fail ure to find a suitable candidate was cited in only a small portion of cases in many basic biomedical f idles. In biochemi stry, for example, of the I81 unfilled positions, only 32 (~8 percent ~ cited this reason; i n mi crobiology the lack of a sui table cand id ate was ci ted in only 6 percent of the cases; in pharmacology it was only 3 percent, whereas in anatomy it was 56 percent . More often than not, no reason at al ~ was g iven for the unfilled positions (Westat, Inc., 1976, pp. Mel, unpublished). In certain clinical fields the failure to f ind a sui table candidate was c, early the maj or reason. In pediatrics it was cited in 58 percent of the cases, and in medicine it was 34 percent. 3) Another interpretation of the Westat results seems more supportable. It is likely that the unfilled positions represent "market friction" rather than shortages. At any given time, there will likely be unfilled positions in the market, even in periods of surplus manpower. A certain amount of searching by both employers and job seekers is normal in any market situation. The survey results indicate that those completing programs in May had no better luck in filling their job expectations than employers had in f illing their jobs. Of the I, 421 pe rson s who compl e ted programs and who sa ill they we re seeking new -positions in May, only 540 (38 percent ~ found-new positions by September (Westat, Inc., 1976, Table ~7, p. 4-4 ~ . Employers seemed to have had more success, filling 1,794 out of 3~461 positions, or more 32

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than 50 percent of the vacancies. Both the un f il led positions and the remaining number of job seeker s may be more a refl ection of communication difficulties ~ i.e., market friction) than market imbalances. Another approach to the- evaluation of the current market is to anal yze the percept ions of bioscience department chairpersons concerning their recent experience in placing Ph.D. 's and post- doctorals. Findings from the Department Survey offer a comp] ex picture of the current market situation, With some fief ds clearly reporting shortages and others surpluses (Appendixes El2 and El3 ) . Overall, there emerges a perception of overall market equilibrium, -as shortage and Burps us fields appear to bad ance off each other. Shortages are reported in such clinically oriented bioscience fields as anatomy, pharmacology, ~ ant pathology, while basic bioscience fields such as biochemistry, physiology, anc] b iology r epo r t sur pi u se s . Findings from the Department Survey are there fore at var lance wi th those from the NIH/We stat survey . Where the NIEl/We stat survey reports shortages of Ph.D. biochemists, biologists, and physiologists in 1975, many department chairpersons came to the opposite conclusion in 1977 (Table 2. 1) . Of the f iel ds reported upon in both the surveys, only in anatomy and pharmacology do the surveys agree that shortages of biomedical Ph.D. 's existed. A repeat of the 1975 Westat survey was conducted in 1977, the resume ts of which are expected to be announced shortly. The Committee welcomes the opportunity to review these and compare them wi th the i n format ion be i ng collected from other source s . Because of the methodology problems noted above, however, the results of the f irst NIH/Westat market survey do not convince the Committee that its assessment of the current market for biomedical Ph.D. 's is erroneous. THE 1978 OUTLOOK FOR PH.D. ' s The market for Ph.D. 's in the basic biomedical sciences is a dynamic system subject to decisions concerning R and D funding leve--Is on the one hand] and career deci signs by undergraduate and graduate students on the other . Each ye ar ad<3i t iotas data red ating -to the system become available through surveys such as those conducted by the U. S . Of f ice of Education, NSF, and the Commission on Human Resources (CHR) . These new data have 1 ed to revised estimates and projections which provide an outs ook only sl ightly altered from that re ported last year . The revi sed and updater] information ifs presented in Table 2. 2, the highlights of wh i ch are the fol lowi ng': o Ph. D. production in the basic biomedical sciences dropped 4.3 percent from 1976 to 1977 (3,371 to 33

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3,225) compared to a 2.7 percent decline in all science fields. From 1971 to 1977, there has been very little change in the annual number of Ph.D.'s awarded in the basic biomedical sciences. This is similar to the general trend in annual Ph.D. production in all science fields where there has been a slight decline of 1 percent per year from 1971 to 1977 after more than two decades of practically uninterrupted growth. - o The postdoctoral pool continues to expand at a rapid pace. In 1977 there were more than 6,300 post- doctorals in the biomedical sciences, up from 5,844 in 1976, thus continuing the growth of the postdoctoral pool noted in last year's report at an annual rate of more than 12 percent. O Estimated undergraduate enrollment in the basic biomedical sciences continues to grow at more than 7 percent per year. Graduate enrollments in these fields are growing at about one-half the rate of undergraduate enrollments. Medical and dental school enrollments grew less rapidly in 1976 but still accounted for more than 71,000 students compared with 74,000 in 1975. The net result of the above growth patterns is that total undergraduate and graduate enrollments in the biomedical sciences continue to grow at a substantial rate of almost 7 percent per year. 0 Real R and D expenditures in the life sciences in colleges and universities showed almost no change from 1975 to 1 976. The growth rate in these real R and D expenditures over the 1 971-76 period has been only 3.2 percent per year. O The total l abor force of Ph o De ~ s employed in basic biomedical f ields has grown almost 7 percent per year from 1972-77. Growth in tile academic sector is somewhat lower, about 6 percent per year, while growth in the business and industry sector i s somewhat h igher at more than ~ percent per year . The Committee' s pro jections of academic demand for biomedical Ph.D. 's have been revised in accordance with both this new information and a refinement ire the est imating procedures. As before, these projections are based on a relationship between the Ph.D. faculty/student ratio ~ F/S) and R and D expenditures in colleges and universities. (An analogous model is used for the clinical sciences in Chapter 4. ~ The new data and revised estimating procedures result in projections of academic demand 36

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for biomedical Ph.D. ' s that are slights y higher than those of last year. This is primarily because last year's estimates of the number of Ph.D. ' s employed in biomedical fief ds have been revised upward, while the estimated undergraduate enroll tment in these fields has been revised downward due to the elimination of enrollments in nursing, pharmacy, laboratory technology, and other heal th professional fields ~ see footnote to Table 2. 2) . The decision to eliminate these fields from this year's estimate of biomed ical enro] Iment i s based on two considerat ions: ~ ~ these f ields do not contr ibute very heavily to the demand for faculty in the basic biomedical fie] ds and 2 ~ the rapid enroll- ment growth in these fief ds in recent years would distort the F/S ratio for the basic biomedical sciences. These changes have the effect of raising the F/S ratio by about 45 percent over 1 ast year' s estimates. Thus, in this year's estimates, each unit of enroll ment has a greater impact on the demand for facul ty. Using the new estimating procedure, the data for 1962-76 indicate that the F/S ratio grew quite rapidly during the ~ 960' s, along wi th R and D expenditures, but appears to have stabil ized near the 0.05 level during the 1970' s. This suggests that the relationship between the F/S ratio and R and D expenditures is in the form of an S-shaped curve typical of many growth processes. A growth curve] (Fiqure 2.~) fits the data sl ightly better than a straight ~ ine and, therefore, has been used to make projections of demand for biomedical Ph.D. faced ty through 1983 under various assumptions about future patterns of R and D expenditures and biomedical science enrollments. These assumptions are presented in Table 2.3 and Figure 2. 2. From 1961 to ~ 975, graduate and undergraduate bioscience enrollments grew steadily at a] most 7 percent per year ~ sl ightly faster than the 6 percent rate for total enrollments in colleges and universi tie s ~ ur ing thi s per iod O But the demographic patterns suggest that college and university enrollments wi] ~ level off and possibly deck ine in the ~ 980' s. The children born in the post war "baby boom" years between 1947 and 1957 are now passing through college age and some observers feel that enroll- ments will have peaked by 1982 (Cartter, 1976, Keyfitz, 1978) . The Co~runittee' s pro jections of bioscience enrollments to 1983 reflect this view, ranging from a zero growth projection on the low side to a f ive percent annual growth rate pro jection on the high side. The most ~ ikely growth rate foreseen by the Committee is about two percent per year from 1976 to 1983. Life science R are] ~ expenditures in colleges and univer- sities also have been pro jected forward under h igh-, middle-, and low-growth assumptions. The middy e or likely growth assumption for R and D expend) t ure s i s baser] on an extrapolat ion of the slower rate of growth in R and D that has occurred since 1968. High- and low-growth assumptions represent variations from this trend, based on possible changes in federal support for R and D. 37

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0.06 o - ~ 0.05 At 0.04 6 0.03 . I UJ Z 0.02 UJ en o m 0.01 ~ _ 1 _ ~ 1966 _ 1964 1962 1 1 1 '70 1~ '72 '74 ~ '75 em. '76 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 LIFE SCIENCE R AND D EXPENDITURES (M) (1967 $, millions) FIGURE 2.1 Ph.D. faculty/student ratio in the bioscience fields as a function of life science R and D expenditures in colleges and universities, 1962-76. M is a weighted average of the last three years of R and D expenditures, i.e., M = 1/4 (Rt + Rt_1 + 2Rt_2). Ph.D. faculty excludes postdoctoral appointees. Solid line represents the estimated growth curve (see note l to this chapter). 38

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1.6 u' 1.2 At o - J 0.8 m fig 0.4 0.07 0.06 0.05 High Estimate Middle Estimate _' - Low Estimate 0 0.04 0.03 ol I I I 1961 1965 1970 1975 1980 0.01 FISCAL YEAR 1 0.02 {a} Life Science R and D in Colleges and Universities {1967 $} 800 700 - ~ 600 u, us o - 500 I_ at 400 o Cr 300 at Lo 200 100 O _ it___C 1 o 1961 1965 1970 1975 1980 FISCAL YEAR {c} Total Biomedical Graduate and Undergraduate Enrollment O . ~ ~ ~ ~ 1961 1965 1970 1975 1980 f ISCAL YEAR {b} Biomedical Ph.D. FaclJltyIStudent Ratio 70r 60; ^ 50 c Cal In o - . ~ m ,Z 40 30 20 10 ~ . 1 1 1 1 1961 1 965 1970 1975 1 980 FISCAL YEAR High Estimate, ,, Middle Estimate A,' Low Estimate A______ (d) Biomedical Ph.D.'s Employed in Colleges and Universities {excludes postdocs.} FIGURE 2.2 Biomedical enrollment, K and D expenditures, and academic employment, 1961-76, with pr`'jcc~i`,ns is, 1983. Based on data from NRC (1973-77), NSF (1956-70, 1977), and U.S. Office of Education (1959-77). 39

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The nine cells in Table 2.3 thus represent various combina- tions of R and D and enrollment projections that encompass the range of possibilities the Committee considers likely based on trends since 1961 and the analyses it has reviewed. Under the combination of high-demand assumptions (I-A of Table 2.3), which the Committee believes to have a low probability of occurrence, demand for biomedical Ph.D. faculty (excluding postdoctorals) is expected to be about 2,800 per year for both expansion and replacement needs. This level would probably be enough to absorb all new biomedical Ph.D.'s seeking academic positions and would also reduce the postdoctoral pool. Under the combination of low-demand assumptions (III-C), which the Committee also believes to be unlikely, less than 500 academic positions would become available annually. Clearly, this would create a much worse market for biomedical Ph.D.'s than currently exists. Under the middle-demand and most probable set of assumptions (II-B), demand for faculty is expected to be about 1,400 posi- tions per year. This is somewhat less than the almost 1,600 biomedical Ph.D.'s that have been added annually to college and university faculties over the 1972-77 period (Table 2.2). Estimates of faculty and graduate student growth between 1976 and 1981 derived from the Committee's Department Survey indicate a decrease in the rate of growth from the first half of the decade and thus tend to confirm the Committee's projections. Faculty size was projected by departments to grow at an average annual rate of 2 percent with an additional 1 percent growth due to retirement (Appendix E5). This compares to the 6 percent growth from 1972 to 1976 (Table 2.2). Predoctoral enrollments were projected by departments to grow at a 2 percent annual rate to 1981 (Appendix E6), down from a 4 percent growth rate in the most recent period. If acted upon, these perceptions may be translated into a more conservative departmental growth in the future. The question has arisen as to whether industry can absorb the anticipated surplus of biomedical doctorates. During the past few years, almost 12 percent of each year's new biomedical doctorates have gone to work in the industrial sector (NRC, 1975-77: 1977 report, p. 39). The Committee believes that this proportion is likely to increase somewhat given the impact of recent federal health-related regulatory legislation. (See the section below on priority fields for research training for a discussion of the impact of recent federal legislation.) In the pharmaceutical industry, where over one-third of the new bio- medical Ph.D.'s in industry are employed, a modest increase of perhaps 2 or 3 percent annual growth of doctoral researchers could be anticipated in the near future, according to some senior research executives. Employment of biomedical Ph.D's in federal, state, and local governments accounts for only about 10 percent of the biomedical Ph.D. labor force, somewhat less than the business sector. Furthermore, employment in the government sector has shown the 40

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levels . Later ~ stud ies of lymphocyte dysfunction were also carried out in animal s and humans. Attempts were made to correlate the f ind i ng s wi th the deg ree to wh i ch the ind iv idua had been ex posed to PBB ~ St ud ie s s uch as th i s requ i re the involvement of both clinically trained and nonclinical epide- miolog-i st s . In summary, it is important to the future of the discip' ine to have broadly trained epidemiologists from both clinical and noncl i n i Cal backg round s . In the case of individuals with health professional degrees, the research training need general ly is the mirror image of that discussed above for Ph.D. 's, namely, to acquire the necessary mathemat i Cal ski ~ ~ s through she c i a] i zed tra in i ng prog rams . Is Tox i cology Historical ly, the science of toxicology developed from a need to know more about the cause s and e f f e at s of a cute po i son i ngs of var ious ki nds . Today, however, the need has sh i fted to under- standing better the results when humans have been exposed for long periods of time to very small, often trace, amounts of a whole spectrum of man-made chemicals and other substances that now permeate our environment. In recent years a broad array of federal regulatory 1 egis- lation has been enacted in response to the pub' ic's heightened concern about the potent i a] hea lth probI ems created by the se substances. This legislation has been directed primarily toward the control of insecticides and pesticides, food additives, air and water pollutants, radiological hazards, new drugs, medical devices, and toxic chemicals . Traditionally, this field has been a neglected area from the research standpoint, and even today there are relet ively few individuals devoting ful ~ time to fundamental research in toxi- cology. A heavy (remand has been placed upon industry to conduct cer ta i n type s of t e st i ng . Such te st i ng pr e suppo se s that the science base exi sts, that the i nvest igat ive methods have been developed and tested, and that theories and hypotheses derived from studies with animals or lower organ) sms can be translated i nto mean ing f ul terms for humans . On fortunately, much of the basic research that i s needed to provide the necessary infra- structure has not been done. Thus, there is a need for addi- tional research toxicol ogists. In add i t ion, there i s a concomi tent demand for mid level professional personnel who have had some advanced training and for an ev en ~ erg e r number of - ski ~ ~ ed te chn i c i an s to cond uc t the actual tests and collect the necessary data on the character- istics of specific substances. Neither of these categories of personnel lies within the purview of the Committee's respons ib i ~ i ty . 48

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A workshop held last year, sponsored by the Environmental Protection Agency ~ EPA), the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS), the Chemical Industry Institute of Tox- icology, and The Conservation Foundation, on Training of Scien- tists for Future Toxic Substances Probl ems (The Conservation Foundation, ~ 978 ), estimated that approximately 500 senior pro- fessional research toxicologists were needed to meet the irn- mediate needs imposed by environmental health legi elation, to- gether with an annual continuing need for another 100 to replace those senior professionals lost each year from the f Held of toxicology because of death and retirement. Without endorsing these specific estimates, the Committee is in agreement with the workshop's basic conclusion that additional senior research toxicologi sts are needed to conduct the f unda- mental research that wi 1~ underlie future testing procedures. although much of the needed research will be conducted by in- dustry, the Commi thee bet ieves that the national importance of this work warrants the support of the required research training under the NRSA program . Currently, toxicologists rece ive their research training in a few basic biomedical fields, primari] y pharmacol ogy, biochem- istry, and pathology. The Committee believes that no critical shortages exist for research personnel in these fields and that, given field mobil ity in the basic biomedical sciences, the im- med late needs for research so ienti sts in taxi cology can best be met with an organized toxicology postdoctoral training grant program. Thi s program should be designed to expedite the acqui- sition of the knowledge and experience necessary for young doctorate recipients from the various fields of the basic bio- medical sciences to do research in toxicology. it should help to ease the current research personnel shortages related to the recent legislation. In order to ensure that the long-range needs of the field are met beyond the immediate entrance of postdoctorals, a small prototype, multidisciplinary, predoctoral training program in toxicology is also needed. Since the Committee is engaged in a continuing study, it will review the situation annually and revise its recommendations as future assessments warrant. Formal recommendations are set forth in a later section of this chapter. Other Fields The Committee received evidence from several sources, including the Department Survey, that anatomy departments are often unable to find suitable applicants for available faculty positions. However-, these personnel needs are more related to the teaching responsibilities of this field than to research needs, and thus not directly under the purview of this study. Most researchers 49

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in anatomy departments are from the fields of cell biology, neurobiology, or developmental biology, and the Committee has found an adequate number of personnel trained in these fields to satisfy research needs. In the field of microbiology, the Committee has received comments that the variety of subdisciplines within microbiology have not been adequately considered and that there is evidence to substantiate the existence of overall shortages in this field. The Committee can find no evidence to support these views. The Committee believes that interfield mobility adequately fulfills the personnel needs for research training in the biosciences, including microbiology. To the extent that microbiology relates to the shortage fields identified by the Committee--epidemiology, biomathematics/biostatistics, and toxicology--the Committee believes that its recommended programs are sufficient to meet their needs. The evidence of ~ abor market shortage is largely based on the NIH/Westat survey. As noted earlier in this chapter (see Assessment of the Current Market), the Committee does not agree with this interpretation of the findings from that survey. The perceptions of microbiology department chairpersons ~ as reported in the Committee's Department Survev) do not support an appraisal of general shortage (Appendixes E12 and Elk. RECOMMENDATIONS Predoctoral Tra i n i ng Leve ~ s In its previous report the Committee di scussed the h igh mobility among f ields of the basic biomedical sciences as revealed in the Survey of Recent Doctorate Recipients. Based in part on these results, the Committee concl udec3 that specific numerical \recom- mendat ions should not be mace by ind iv idual f i eld for predoctoral research training. During the past year the Committee has examined recent in- formation concerning future empl oyment opportunities for bio- med i cal research personnel and found no reason to change the recommendations for pr-edoctoral training support it made in the 1977 report . In ~ ight of the di scussion in the earlier sections of thi s chapter, the Committee bel ieves that its previous recom- mendations of a 30 percent reduction during the past 2 years in fed eral suppo rt fo r pr edoctoral tra i n i ng are we l l j ust i f i ed ( NRC, 1975-77: 1976 report, p. 9, and 1977 report, p. 67) . The Commit- tee is hesitant, however, to recommend a further reduction until i t leas had adequate opport un i ty to evaluate the impact of the se past recommendations, since further reductions could inadvert- ently reduce the effect iveness of the training programs and thus 50

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the future qual i ty of the net iona, endeavor in blamed i Cal re se arch . Recommendat ion. The number of predoctorals supported in the basic biomedical sciences should be maintained at a level of 4, 250 for FY 1980 and until such t ime as new information ind i cates to the Commi thee that a change should be made O Postdoctoral Training Levels The Committee previously has recommended that 3,200 postdoctoral awards in the basic biomedical sciences be considered at the present time as the steady-state level. As shown in Table 2.4, the number of basic biomedical postdoctoral awards listed by the agencies for 1977 is significantly below the 1975 and 1976 levels . The number of postdoctoral train) ng post t ion s made available by the agencies in FY 1977 fell short of this recom- mended level by about 15 percent (Table 1.1 ) . Most probably, this was the result of budgetary 1 imitations, since the actual amount appropriated for training was over 12 percent less than the amount the Committee estimated would be required to sustain its recommendations. As noted in the Committee' s 1976 report (NRC, 1975-77), the growing number of Postdoctoral appointees in the basic biomedical sciences increasingly have drawn support from research grants and nonfederal sources. In 1976, these so urce s suppor t ed more than 6 0 percent of the pos tdoctor al ap- pointees in the biological sciences, while federal fellowships and training grants supported just under 40 percent (NSF, 1 973-7 7 ) ~ Because of the special but 1 imited need for toxicologists that now exists (see separate section), the Committee is recom- mer~ding that NIH earmark 200 of these postdoctoral awards for individuals who wish to undertake this advanced training in toxicology or basic research related to toxicology and environ- mental heal th . This level of support will approximately double the effort NIH now provides in this field. The Committee in the future will monitor the supply/demand balance for this field and revise its recommendation in the light of these assessments. Recommendat ion . The Commi ttee recommends that for FY 1980-82, 3,~20-0 postdoctorate continue to be supported annually. The Committee further recommends that of this number approxi- mately 200 postdoctoral awards each year be in the f ield of toxicology or research training related to toxicology. (See 51

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the later section on field specification for postdoctoral training.) Training Grants and Fellowships The Committee reaffirms its previous recommendation on this issue: Recommendation. The Committee recommends that institutional training grants be the primary mechanism for NRSA support of predoctoral students in the basic biomedical sciences. Support of postdoctoral training, on the other hand, should utilize primarily the mechanism of individual fellowships. At the postdoctoral levee in the basic biomedical sciences for Ph.D. degree holders, the Committee has recommended and continues to believe that support should generally be on an individual basis through fellowships e Although the latter police represents a modification in the current NIH practice of utiliz- ing both mechanisms, the Committee is convinced that, with some exceptions, organized training programs are not needed since most postdoctoral training is focused within the individual research group. As illustrated in Table 2.5, some change in this direc- tion is occurring. An example of an exception to this rule is the recommendation by the Committee for a postdoctoral training grant program in the field of toxicology, where, the Committee believes, organized programs would be more effective for pro- viding the required training and skills to scientists from other basic biomedical fields. Priority Fields and Announcement Areas Predoctoral Training. The Committee reaffirms its past recom- mendations that l) unless otherwise noted, there be no predoc- toral field specification except for review and administrative purposes; 2) all fields appropriate to the mission of NIH receive equal consideration; and 3) awards be made on the basis of merit as determined by the peer review system. As discussed earlier in this chapter in the section on prior- ity fields, the three fields of epidemiology, biomathematics/- biostatistics, and toxicology need special attention and there- fore should be specified in the official 53

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1 TABLE 2 . 5 NIH and ADAMHA Postdoctoral Trainee ship and Fellowship Awards, 1975-77, in the Basic Biomedical Sciences Fiscal Year 1975 1976 1977 TOTAL 3,196 3,767 2,717 Postdoctoral Traineeships 1,781 2,076 1,260 Postdoctoral Fellowships 1, 415 1,691 1,457 54

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announcements concerning support for predoctoral research training. Recommendation. The Committee recommends that 1) predoctoral training fields not be specified in agency announcements for reasons other than for review and administrative purposes except for epidemiology, biomathematics/biostatistics, and toxicology which are viewed by the Committee as priority areas for pre- doctoral training; 2) NIH provide support for the establishment of prototype, multidisciplinary, predoctoral training grant programs in toxicology and related research areas in order to meet the long-term needs in this field for broadly trained researchers. Postdoctoral Training. During the past year and-particularly at its public-meeting, the Committee's attention has been directed to the needs of certain fields for postdoctorals and the need to emphasize some aspects of postdoctoral training within those fields. These expressed needs have been reviewed in the earlier discussion in this chapter on priority areas. Specifically, the Committee makes the following recommendation: Recommendation. The Committee recommends that I ) in the field of biomathematics/biostatistics, encouragement be given to establishing programs to provide mathematical training for doc- torates from other biomedical sciences; 2) in the field of epi- demio~ogy, encouragement and emphasis be given to attracting and providing postdoctoral training for M.D.'s; and 3) increased postdoctoral support be provided to the field of toxicology. (See the previous recommendation in the section on postdoctoral training levels.) Coordination of NIH Support for Predoctoral Training In its report for 1977, and again this year, the Committee has stressed its bel ief that research training at the predoctoral level should be broadly based and not overly specified or di- rected toward particular appl ications ~ e.g ., specific diseases) . This view has been stated again as part 1 of a recommendation given in the previous section. With this in mind, it is not surprising that the Committee has had some difficulty understanding the philosophy and scope of 55

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the predoctoral training programs and policies of NIH, particularly in view of the differing practices of the several institutes that share authorization for predoctoral training. The Committee recognizes the value of supporting research ante postdoctoral training by the categorical institutes but does not believe that this pluralistic system is beneficial for pre- doctoral training. The Committee believes it would be incon- sistent and administratively unwieldly to eliminate predoctoral field specification for the basic biomedical sciences, yet continue to have, without any overall coordination by the agency, predoctoral awards made by the various categorical institutes in accordance with their own specific missions. This problem is particularly acute in such multidisciplinary fields as epidemio~ ogy an<] biostatistics. The current practice of having each institute support only the portion of each field relevant to its interest has made these specialized methods fields particularly vulnerable to i nadvertent g aps in support by the agency. The Committee believes that a more comprehensive approach, entailing either a centralized administrative locus or a single coordinating unit, is needed to assure that the develop- ment of these fields proceeds in a-balanced way. Because the purpose of the predoctoral training grant program is to train the best young scientists for research careers in all fields relevant to the overall mission of NIH, the Committee believes that NIH should institute a mechanism for coordinating all of the support it provides for predoctora-l training through the various institutes. Such coordination might be accomplished either through the Office of the Director or, alternatively, by concentrating the administrative responsibility for all pre- doctoral support within one institute. If the latter means is selected, the Committee considers the National Institute of Genera] Medical Sciences (NIGMS), the only noncategorical institute at NIH and the one that now supports about two-thirds of all NIH-funded predoctora~ training, to be the appropriate body for this responsibility. The Committee wishes to emphasize that the coordinating unit, whether within the Office of the Director, or a single institute, must assure that the separate institutes both participate fully in the decision-making process and contribute appropriately to the support required for the total program. Regards ess of the means sel ected, the objective of this coordination is to make sure that neither unclue emphasis nor gaps occur in the support of predoctoral training across the spectrum of the basic biomedical sciences. Recommendat ion . The Commi thee recommend s that NIH e stab! i sh a procedure for coordinating all of its support for oredoctoral training in the basic biomedical sciences. It is suggested that this might be accomplished either through the Office of the Director or by placing this administrative responsibility within 56

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NIGMS. The purpose of such coordination is to ensure that no aspect of predoctoral training in the basic biomedical sciences, including the fields of biomathematics/biostatistics and epide- miology,iis either undersupported or overemphasized. Regardless of the administrative means selected, the funding institutes should participate fully both in providing appropriate support for the final program adopted by the agency, as well as in the decision-making process whereby this plan is established!. Multidisciplinary Training Grants The Committee reiterates the endorsement it gave in its 1977 report to the concept of multidisciplinary training, especially at the predoctoral level, and also its position that applications for training grants should be accepted by NIH from single depart- ments as well as from those which are multidepartmental in na- sure. Different structural arrangements are possible for acheiv- ing the objective of multidisciplinary training. NIR, especially NIGMS, should not preclude considering applications solely on the basis of department al arrang ements. Recommendation. The Committee recommends that NIH not dis- courage applications for predoctoral training grants from single departments, and that NIH leave to the peer review system, as part of the application review process, decisions about what de- partmental arrangements-in each case are best. Fellowship Applications The Committee has been informed that NIH and ADAMHA have had difficulty in receiving an adequate number of qualified postdoc- toral fellowship applications in the biomedical sciences. This poor response is believed to have been due, in part, to the dis- couragingly long wait required for decisions to be made on the applications as a result of the dual review process, with the consequence that applicants frequently have had to make other career decisions prior to their being notified of the action taken on their application. A related consequence has been that the shi ft from training grants to fellowships at the postdoctoral level has been retarded. Recommendation. The Committee recommends that the time for reviewing postdoctoral fellowship applications be reduced by omitting the currently required review and approval by advisory councils and by whatever other means may be possible. 57

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for lows: FOOTNOTES The mathematical specification of the relationship is as F/S = exp [ or - ~ / ( Iv-C ) ] + ~ where F = Ph. D . ' s employed in basic biomedical science fields at co] leges and universities; est imated graduate and undergraduate enrollment in bioscience and medical and dental schools; M = weighted average of the 1 ast three years of life science R and D expenditures in Cal 1 eges and universities, i.e., b; t = l/4(Rt~ Rt_~ + 2Rt_2), 1967 $, millions or, 8, C, K = Constants to be determined empirical] y. Fitting this curve to the data for ~ 962-76 gives fold owing estimates for the parameters: = a = -3, 354 ~ = 734.0 C = 300 K = 0.037 2. Tables from the Survey of Biomedical and Behavioral Science Departments ~ cited as "Department Survey" ~ are contained in Appenci ix E. 3. Definitions of departmental characteristics--qual ity (Roose-Andersen) rating, institutional control, school type, and department age--may be fount] in Append ix E] . 58