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Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers (1989)

Chapter: 5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper

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Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 123
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
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Page 124
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 125
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 126
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 127
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 128
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 129
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 130
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 131
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 132
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 133
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 134
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
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Page 135
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 136
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
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Page 137
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
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Page 138
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
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Page 139
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
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Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
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Page 142
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 143
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 144
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 145
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 146
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 147
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 148
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
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Page 149
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
×
Page 150
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
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Page 151
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
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Page 152
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
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Page 153
Suggested Citation:"5. Biomedical/Behavioral Cohort Model: A Technical Paper." Institute of Medicine. 1989. Biomedical and Behavioral Research Scientists: Their Training and Supply: Volume III: Commissioned Papers. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/9915.
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BIOMEDICAL/BE~VIORAL COHORT MODEL: A TECHNICAL PAPER Joe G. Baker* INTRODUCTION The legislation prompting this study requires the assessment of ". . . the nation's overall need for biomedical and behavioral research personnel. . . ."~ Past committees have defined this "need" in labor market terms--that is, how many biomedical and behavioral researchers will be "needed" in the future? The purpose of this paper is to document the model used to project the future labor market for biomedical and behavioral scientists. Future labor market conditions are defined in terms of improvements or deteriorations from historical market conditions, and future demand conditions are examined in the context of the appropriate National Research Service Awards Acts variable--that is, Ph.D. production and postdoctoral study. Fo1 lowing a descriptive overview of the model used are detailed discussions of the various model components, data, and coefficient estimates. THE MODEL: AN O1JERVTEW Past committee projections of the future need for biomedical and behavioral scientists have focused on academic demand. Job openings were developed based upon growth in academic positions and openings resulting from faculty death, retirement, and field switching. These projections were developed for the near term; the 1985 committee report included projections to 1990. This model expands the earlier analysis in several ways: 1. In almost every biomedical and behavioral field, the major source of historical and projected employment growth is in nonacademic sectors, primarily private industry. Thus, this model includes industry, government, hospital, and other nonacademic sources of demand for biomedical and behavioral scientists. * The opinions expressed in this paper are the author's and do not necessarily reflect those of either the Committee on Biomedical Research Personnel or the National Research Council. iSection 489 of P.L. 99-158.

2. The focus of the NRSA program is research personnel. This analysis develops separate projections for the labor market in general and that subsection of the labor market associated with scientists whose primary work activity is research and development (R&D) or the management of R&D. Given concern over "graying" of the work force, this analysis includes a demographic/economic model for estimating scientists' attrition due to death, retirement, and net occupational movement based upon the age and experience structure of the scientific work force. 4. This analysis includes a model of labor supply. 5. Given that the median time to complete the biomedical sciences Ph.D. has grown from seven years in the late 1970s to eight years in 1987, the 1997 biomedical scientist labor market will be influenced by student decisions and NRSA policy in 1989. In the behavioral sciences, median time to Ph.D. has increased from approximately 8.5 years to 10.5 years during the same period. These types of lags argue for a longer time horizon of analysis; the current study projects labor market variables to the year 2000. Figure 1 is a schematic of the labor market assessment model. The stock of scientists in time period t is characterized by biological age (years since birth) and career age (years since degree). Historical data provide estimates of the number of deaths and retirements by biological age; these scientists are removed from the scientist stock. Those who do not retire or die can leave the field for other employment; this is assumed to be a function of career age. These estimates of outmigration are net of immigration from other fields and are estimated from historical data. The surviving scientist stock is available for employment in period t+1. The required scientist stock in period t+1 is estimated from submodels that link demand for scientists to the demand for the good or service that scientists produce-- for example, R&D or graduate students. These demand submodels vary by discipline (biomedical, behavioral, clinical), work duties (R&D and non-R&D), and sector (academic, industrial, governmental). The difference between the surviving scientist stock and the required scientist stock in period t+1 is the job openings (vacancies) that must be filled by new entrants. These 2See National Research Council, Summary Report 198 7 Doctorate Recipients from United States Universities (Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press, 1989), Table P.

Scientists in time t Characterized by 1. Biological Age 2. Career Age Figure 1. ~1 Net Outmigration dependent upon Career Age ~ ~ "Surviving" Scientists in time t+1 Scientists in time t+1 Characterized by 1. Biological Age 2. Career Age Schematic Demand for Scientists 1. R&D Spending 2. Enrollments 3. Other Deaths & Retirement dependent upon Biological Age New Hires by 1. Biological Age 2. Career Age .F "Required" Scientists Stock t+1 1. Academic 2. Industry 3. Government 4. Hospitals 5. Other New Hires= "Required" - "Surviving" Supply of Scientists - ` ( 1 Readiness of the Labor Market Assessment Model 123 \~ 2. Recruitment ) ,~ Retention

job vacancies are compared to supply to compute "vacancy ratios" --that is, the number of vacancies per new Ph.D. or postdoctorate. Increases or decreases in future vacancy ratios from historical ratios give one a sense of tightening or loosening of the projected demand/supply balance in the scientist labor market. This same basic analysis is replicated for the R&D subsector. SCIE=IST ATTRITION: DEATH, RETIREMENT, AND NET MOBILITY The model used to estimate attrition is a demographic/ economic cohort survival model that follows closely the work of Kuh, Radner, and Fernandez. 3 The nature of a cohort survival model is to essentially "march" each cohort of scientists through time and apply age-specific rates of death, retirement, and net outmobility as the cohort ages. The population described here is that of basic biomedical scientists. Separate coefficients were estimated for behavioral scientists and are included in the Appendix tables. Three types of annual scientist attrition are addressed by the model: death, retirement, and net outmobility. The annual number of deaths and retirements are assumed to be a function of an individual's "biological" age (B). Annual net outmobility is defined as the number of scientists who leave biomedical science for other occupations minus the number of workers who enter biomedical science from other occupations. Net outmobility is assumed to be a function of a scientist's "career" age (C). It is unlikely, for example, to see a large net outmobility rate in the younger career ages because scientists are unlikely to move out of an occupation that has consumed an average of 8 years of training. Later in their careers, a segment of the scientists will more likely move out of science and into administration or management. In addition to career patterns, scientist mobility could be influenced by labor market characteristics. For example, if the labor market deteriorated and job opportunities and wage growth were depressed, scientist outmobility would probably increase. However, historical data indicate very little variation in scientist unemployment and underemployment rates through time. Also, it could be argued that scientists would be unlikely to 3Chariotte Kuh and Roy Radner, Mathematicians in Academia : 1975-2000 (Washington, D.C.: Conference Board on the Mathematical Sciences, 1980~; and Luis Fernandez, Project on Quantitative Policy Analysis Motels of Demand and Supply in Higher Education (Washington, D.C.: Carnegie Council on Policy Studies in Higher Education, 1978~. 124

leave a career in reaction to short term cyclical economic conditions. In the mode J described here, these labor market influences are assumed to be small compared to career patterns as determinants of net mobility, i.e., they are ignored. Each scientist in the model is defined by biological age and career age. Although scientists can enter the system at any career age, those who enter at career ages other than one are incorporated into the net outmobility rates. For practical purposes, all new entrants enter the system at career age one. The parameters of the model include: o Initial biological and career age distribution, o Biological age-specific death and retirement rates, and o Career age-specific net outmobility rates. Obviously, there is a high degree of correlation between biological age and career age. Because of this, one can estimate fairly accurately the biological age distribution of a group of scientists given their career ages. If one assumes that the biological age distribution of newly minted Ph.D.s is stable, one can construct a model whose states (biological age and career age) depend only upon the career age distribution. At any time, the biological age distribution can be estimated from the career age distribution and the model can be simplified.4 Data Except where noted, all data are from the Survey of Doctorate Recipients (SDR) sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the National Institutes of Health. These data are collected by the National Research Council biannually from a cross-section sample of approximately 10 percent of the U.S. Ph.D. scientist population. Initial Career and Biological Distribution Table 1 is a cross-tabulation of the distribution of biomedical scientists in 1987 by career age and biological age. Given that a biomedical scientist is C<=5 ; then P(B<30 ~ = .115 These probabilities allow the estimation of biological age from given career age.5 4See Fernandez, op. cit. , pp.132-33. 5Career and biological age cross-tabulations for behavioral scientists are contained in the appendix. 125

Table 1. Career Age and Biological Age Distribution of Biomedical Scientists, 1983-1987 Bio Age <=5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 >=41 Total <30 1918 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1939 30-34 9463 4650 43 0 0 0 0 0 0 14156 35-39 3748 8547 4908 8 0 0 0 0 0 17211 40-44 977 3298 8618 5161 0 0 0 0 0 18054 45 -49 280 678 2535 6340 2357 57 0 0 0 12247 50-54 124 204 907 2084 2943 1151 0 0 0 7413 55-59 81 101 274 744 1330 2037 1228 77 0 5872 60-64 3 61 77 181 511 1048 1702 474 6 4063 65-69 10 0 16 84 91 95 376 566 219 1457 >=70 0 0 8 0 13 22 57 174 88 362 Total 16604 17560 17386 14602 7245 4410 Relative Distribution Career Age 3363 1291 313 82774 Bio Age <=5 6-10 11-15 26-30 31-35 36-40 >=41 o o <30 0.1155 0.0011 0 30-34 0.5699 0.2648 0.0024 35-39 0.2257 0.4867 0.2822 0.0005 0 0 40-44 0.0588 0.1878 0.4956 0.3534 0 0 45-49 0.0168 0.0386 0.1458 0.4341 0.3253 0.0129 0 0 0 50-54 0.0074 0.0116 0.0521 0.1427 0.4062 0.2609 0 0 0 55-59 0.0048 0.0057 0.0157 0.0509 0.1835 0.4619 0.3651 0.0596 0 60-64 0.0001 0.0034 0.0044 0.0123 0.0705 0.2376 0.5060 0.3671 0.0191 65-69 0.0006 0 0.0009 0.0057 0.0125 0.0215 0.1118 0.4384 0.6996 >=70 0 0 0.0004 0 0.0017 0.0049 0.0169 0.1347 0.2811 O O O O Total 1 1 1 1 1 1 o o , O o O O O O O O o SOURCE: 1983, 1985 and 1987, Survey of Doctorate Recipients, NRC. Table 2. Death and Retirement Rates Bio Age o ' O o o o o 0.0026 0.0753 0.1714 1 Retire Death Rate Rate 0.0011 0.0017 0.0027 0.0038 0.0063 0.0114 0.0179 0.0271 0.0378 0.05 SOURCE: Charlotte V. Kuh and Roy Radner, Mathematicians i n Academia: 1975 - 2000 A Rew rt to the National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.: Conference Board of the Mathematical Sciences, 1980, pp. 84-86. 126

Death and Retirement Rapes Table 2 contains estimates of death and retirement rates. These rates are for academicians in toto. Net Mobility Rates Conceptually, the net outmobility rates of scientists are simply the gross occupational exits minus the gross occupational entrants by career age. Practically, these longitudinal movements are extremely difficult to measure given existing data sets. Therefore, a shortcut method based upon a cross-section of scientists by career age was used6 to estimate these movements. As shown in Table 3 the values of each cell are the sum of SDR survey years 1983 , 1985 , and 1987. For example, the number of biomedical scientists of C<=5= 31,538: C<=5 for 1987 (10,823) C<=5 for 1985 (10,720) + C<=5 for 1983 (9,995~. Putting aside debate of whether postdoctorates are students or employed and counting them as employed, the total pool of biomedical scientists C<=5 is 48,847 (31,538 ~ 17,309~. The total number of Ph.D.s in all fields except humanities and engineering with C<=5 is 202,517; this is assumed to be the primary supply source for biomedical scientists. Because these estimates are for attrition other than death and retirement, all scientists who will retire must be removed from the labor supply pool (column 6, Table 3), giving a labor supply pool of 202,378 for C<=5. Thus, for every 1,000 scientists of C<=5, 241 are biomedical scientists L(31538 + 17309~/~202378~. For every 1,000 scientists of Cow, 231 are biomedical scientists. Assuming that this cross-section reflects the longitudinal movement of scientists, then the net outmobility rate of C<=6 is 4.1 percent r (241-231~/241~. This rate is for a five-year period and must be annualized: assuming that the average time of transition for a given scientist C<=6 to C6~0 is 2.5 years, then the annualized net outmobility rate is 1.79 percent (i.e., 98.21 percent of biomedical scientists of C<=6 "survive" into the next year, while 1.79 percent move into nonbiomedical fields). 7 are biomedical scientists L(31538 1,000 scientists of Cow, 231 are Mode} Structure Given the above parameters, the operation of the model is fairly straightforward. At a point in time i, a group of scientists S are identified by their career age C. Death and retirement are estimated from this group by the following the 6This shortcut method was suggested by Robert Dauffenbach, a member of the Committee on Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel. 70f course, this survival rate is the dif ference between 1 arger gross outmobility and gross immobility 127

equation: (1) PUDGY- E(n) P(Bn~Cr)*P(DRn~Bn) Where P(D~) - P(Bn~Cr) = the probability of death or retirement given career age r; the probability of biological age = n given career age = r; P(DRn|Bn) = the probability of death or retirement given biological age = n; and E(n) sums these probabilities across all biological ages n. Given that an individual does not retire or die, he or she can now leave the biomedical work force for other occupations. The total attrition rate for career age = r is thus: (2) P(~) = P(O~*~1-P(D~] where P (~) P (O~) conditional probability of total attrition given career age r; simple probability of net outmobility for career age = r C1-P(D~] = probability of not retiring or dying given career age r; . . . the total attrition estimate for all employed biomedical scientists is: (3) TA = E(r) Sr*P(~) where TA = total attrition from death, retirement, and net outmobility and the number of scientists career age r. S = Thus, for each group of scientists career age r, the estimated attrition leaves a surviving group of scientists in period t+1 that moves to the next career age r+l. Summing across all career ages gives the total attrition for the stock of scientists S and allows for the computation of the total surviving scientists in period t+1 (Figure 1~. 128

DEMAND FOR SCIENTISTS As shown in-Figure 1, the demand for scientists is derived from the services that they produce--for example, R&D and teaching graduate students. Other factors, in particular wage rates, can also affect the level of scientist demand. The demand models used in this analysis--simple forms of this conceptual models estimated for each field (biomedical and behavioral), sector (academic, industrial, hospital,) and work activity (R&D and non-R&D)--are included in the Appendix. Table 4 contains the detailed projections for biomedical scientists; the Appendix contains the detailed tables for nonclinical psychologists and other behavioral scientists. The projection model assumptions were developed by the Committee on Biomedical and Behavioral Research Personnel. Table 3. Estimated Quit Rates for Biomedical Scientists, 1983-1987 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Biomed Total Bio Sci Annual Annual Career R&D & Postdoc Total Phones per Quit R&D Quit . Age Biomed Mgt R&D Biomed Retired Ph.D.s -retire 1000 Sci Rate Rate <=5 31538 19695 17309 139 202517 202378 241 6-10 48171 2997S 2419 373 219649 219276 231 -1.79°X -8.18% 11-15 49162 26230 531 990 216355 215365 231 0.00% -6.69% 16-20 34190 16674 135 2279 156309 154030 223 -1.38% -5.06% 21-25 18257 8406 24 4041 90762 86721 211 -2.20% -4.52% 26-30 12726 5383 36 6428 66917 60489 211 0.03% -3~21% 31-35 8567 3790 24 13162 55630 42468 202 -1.6rX 0.10X 36-40 2743 1095 7 11772 26291 14519 189 -2.60% -6.51% 41+ 1295 495 0 6507 11286 4779 271 15.40% 13.24% Total 206649 111743 20485 45691 1045716 1000025 Average annual quit rate -0.8% SOURCE: 1983, 1985, arid 1987 Survey of Doctorate Recipients, National Research Council. Postdoctorates There are no explicit projections for postdoctorates. The . level of postdoctorate employment is assumed to be an institutional variable determined by public policy and, as a simplifying assumption, the level of postdoctorate employment was 8For a model of biomedical scientist demand that includes factor prices in both the demand and supply equations, see Joe G. Baker, "The Ph.D. Supply Crisis: A Look at the Biomedical Sciences," paper given at the June 21, 1989, Western Economics Association Meeting, Lake Tahoe, Nevada. It should be noted that the inclusion of factor prices did not change the salient results of the analysis. 129

held constant during the time frame of analysis. Thus, the level of postdoctoral employment does not affect the level of total employment; and given that most postdoctorates are young, very little labor supply is assumed to be lost from death, retirement, or outmobility. If the postdoctorate "pool" is assumed constant with little or no attrition, then one can further assume that the annual exits from this pool equal entrants, and the net effect on labor supply to positions outside the pool is small. If the pool is changing in size, then entrants and exits will not be equal. As can be seen in Figure 2, the postdoctoral pool has been flat since 1981 at approximately 8,100 biomedical scientists. In the behavioral sciences, postdoctoral employment has been flat since 1979 at approximately 1,100 scientists. Analysis: Vacancy Ratios The model discussed above estimates annual job openings from death, retirement, net outmobility, ant] growth. As a means to summarize the relationship between these job openings and labor supply and to provide information about the future labor market, the concept of "vacancy ratios" was developed. Simply put, the vacancy ratio is the average number of job openings Figure 2. Postdoctoral per new Ph.D. For the period Employment in Biomedical and 1983-1987, the number of job Behavioral Sciences, 1973-1987 openings from death, retirement and growth averaged 4846 annually (Table 5~. The average number of new Ph.D.s in the biomedical sciences produced annually for this same period was 3862. Thus, the "vacancy ratio" was 1.25 openings per each new Ph.D. An "R&D vacancy ratio" is calculated by comparing R&D job openings to postdoctorate production. SOURCE: Survey of Doctorate Recipients. Obviously, not all new Ph.D.s in biomedical science go into the biomedical field; also the field draws Ph.D.s from other areas (e.g., physical sciences anti other life sciences) including foreign scientists. However, the primary source of new Ph.D.s is U.S. graduates in the field and, thus, the vacancy ratio gives one a sense of the historical relationship between this supply source and demand. No value judgments are made in terms of what the "correct" vacancy ratio is ; the pro j ected vacancy ratios 130

s imply provide information about the relative state of the labor market uncier differing assumptions. Table 4. Summary Projections in Biomedical Sciences Biomedical Sensitivity Model Model Assumptions High Mid Low 1. Federal Health R&D Funding Growth 4.0% 2. Private Health R&D Funding Growth 13.0% 3. Other Health R&D Funding Growth 4.0% Grad and Undergrad Biomed Enrollment 1.0% 5. "Other" blamed R&D Employment Growth 3.5% 6. "Other" biomed non-A&D Employment Growth 10.0% 2.7% 0.2% 9.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 0.0% - 1 .0% 2.5% 1.5% 8.0% 5.0% Projected Employment of Biomedical Scientists, 1973-2000 (in 100s of workers) Low Case Year Total R&D % R&D ~- Mid Case Total R&D % R&D - High Case Total R&D % R&D 1973 396.4 197.8 49.9% 396.4 197.8 49.9% 396.4 197.8 49.9X 1975 447.2 211.8 47.4% 447.2 211.8 47.4% 447.2 211.8 47.4% 1977 479.2 237.9 49.6% 479.2 237.9 49.6% 479.2 237.9 49.6% 1979 543.8 284.5 52.3% 543.8 284.5 52.3% 543.8 284.5 52.3% 1981 600.1 316.2 52.7% 600.1 316.2 52.7% 600.1 316.2 52.7% 1983 626.4 322.1 51 .4% 626.4 322. 1 51 .4% 626.4 322.1 51 .4% 1985 703.2 366.7 52.1% 703.2 366.7 52.1% 703.2 366.7 52.1% 1987 762.6 437.6 57.4% 762.6 437.6 57.4% 762.6 437.6 57.4% 1988 786.4 451.2 57.4% 802.4 464.0 57.8% 816.6 475.3 58.2% 1989 791 .6 459. 0 58. 0% 823 .3 484 . 1 58. 8% 851 .6 506. 5 59. 5% 1990 811.1 466.8 57.6% 858.7 504.2 58.rX 901.7 538.1 59.7% 1991 825.0 474.6 57.5% 888.8 524.4 59.0% 947.8 570.9 60.2% 1992 839.3 482.4 57.5% 919.9 545.2 59.3% 996.8 605.9 60.8% 1993 855 . 2 490.4 57. 3% 953 .6 566.9 59. 4% 1050. 7 643 .9 61 . 3% 1994 869.6 498.5 57.3% 987.2 589.8 59.7% 1107.5 685.7 61.9% 1995 886.5 506.8 57.2% 1024.6 614.1 59.9% 1171.5 732.1 62.5% 1996 894 . 9 515 . 4 57. 6% 1055 . 3 640 . 1 60 . 6% 1232 . 7 783 . 7 63 . 6% 1997 913.2 524.3 57.4% 1097.9 668.1 60.8% 1310.3 841.4 64.2% 1998 928.8 533.5 57.4% 1140.0 698.3 61.3% 1392.5 906.0 65.1% 1999 947.4 543.1 57.3% 1187.7 731.0 61 .6% 1486.0 978.4 65.8% 2000 973.6 553.1 56.8% 1245.6 766.5 61.5% 1596.4 1059.6 66.4% Growth Rates: 73-87 4.8% 5.8% 4.8% 5.8% 4.8% 5.8% 87-91 2.0% 2.0% 3.9% 4.6% 5.6% 6.9°X 87-20 1.9% 1.8% 3.8% 4.4% 5.8% 7.0% NOTE: This table does not include postdoctoral employment or unemployment. SOURCE: Estimated by National Research Council. 131

or 0 or or or rid o or o 4= a, ~ or Q in O ~ O O ~— - Q Cl) _ ~ ~ O 0 3 c o I_ m o o ._ I_ o ._ 0 ~ 0 _ ~ al a) - Q s ~ ~ X ~ ~ ~ He ~ ~ ~ ~ x I4~ O ~ ~ 0 0 ~ N ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O 3 ~ · ~ O ~ O ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ O rot ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ rat CD O _ ^1 ~ ~ 1` ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ N 1^ 0 up 0` 0 0 1 ··· ··· ··~ ~ O O O ~ he 0 ~ ~ ret up ~ up ~ ~ ~ in 0 ~ ~ ~ S ~ ~ = ~ ~ ~ ~ X ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ = 3 of 0~ 0 Jo 0 ~0 - 1 ~ Jo Us ~ Us O `0 0~ O CY O ~ ~ ~ 00 ~ O ~ U' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ `0 H~ xx~ = r~ 0 0 ~ ~ o. 0 0 ~ ~ u~ 0 0 0` `0 ~ · · ~ · a · ~ · · · · ~ O O ~ ~ k~ 0 0 0 ~ ~ ~ U~ ~ ~ ~ U' ~ ~ H=X ~ = C) ~ ~ ~ _~ ~ U~ ~ ~ 0 ~ 0 ~ ~ OdS · · a · · ~ a · · · · · a U~ ~ ~ ~ 0~ 0 ~0 ~ ~ 0~ %0 ~ ~° U~ U~ k~ `0 ~ 0 U~ ~— ~ ~ tO N U~ ~0 ~ 0 0 0 `0 0 0 `0 0 ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ %0 ~ ~ O ~ ~ ~0 0 o~ r~ ~ 0 ~ ~ 0 ~ u~ U~ CY ~ ~ ~ ~ rn ~o ~ u~ ~ O _ ~ ~ U' 0 0 C~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ `0 `0 4~ 0 0 ~ ~~ O~ ~ a a ~ ~ ~ O `0 ~ ~ O ~ ~ O ~ · 1^ ~ ~ 0` i~ ~ ~ U' ~ U~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0~ ~ U~ ~ ~ ~ S~ C) ~ O ~ `0 0 `0 U~ ~ 0` %0 0 ~ LO O OZ, ~ a tY —t U~ U~ ~ 0~ N ~ ~ 0 ~ ~J ~ ~ 0` 0 ~ u~ ~0 ~0 r~ o ~ ~ ~ u~ u~ ~o ~) ~o 0 ~ 0 r_ 0 ~ N 0 ~ O `0 ~ 0` U' ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0 0 ~ ~ ~ O r~ U~ ~o ~ r~ O ~ u' u' ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - 1 ~J N ~ ~ ~J ~ 1~ 1^ _ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ ~ 0~ ~ ~ ~ ~ - O 0 0 ~ U~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ~ 0` ~ ~ ~ O U' 0 O ~ ~ 0 - 1 ~ 0 ~ ~ 0 0 0~ 0 - 1 0 I{Y O~ 0~ O~ ~ ~ ~ N t~J N 0~ 0~ 0` . . · . . · . . · . . · . · · ~ ~J ~J N 0 0 0 %0 `0 `0 ~ h_ ~a~ ~_ u~ ~ u~ o ~ ~0 %0 ~ ~ ~ u~ ~n C) U~ ~ k~ 0~ 0` 0~ ~ r~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~o ~o ~ ~ t~ ~~ ~0 ~0 ~0 ~0 ~0 ~0 ~ ~~0 ~o ~a~ t~_ r~_ ~ N t~l N t~J N O.1 ~ ~ ~~ ~ r~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C, ~J t~ —1 ~ - ~ ~ ~ %;t >- 1 0 _ ~ 1~ ~ ~0 ~0 ~0 U~ U~ 1^ ~ ~ ~ ~ `0 `0 Q 4~ ~ · ~ · · · · · · · · · · · · C O ~ ~ r°~ 0 00 00 r° ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ `, ~ , C~ z ~n O Q _ ~ cn CO O O ~ Q . _ cn cn co ~ cn ~ 4 os ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ cn cn ~ C~ cn ~ c~ 0 ~ a, c~ cn a) c~ cn a' ~ cn ~ ~n ~ cn ~ 0 ~n ~ cn ~ ~ ~— E ~ ~ E c~ — ~ 15 c~ ~ E c~ ~ o m c~ ~ t' ~ _ ~ ~— s — ~— s 4J ~— s ~— s ~— 3 ~ C~ G' 3 ~ ~) ~ 3 ~ {D ~ 3 ~ ~ 3 ~ ~ X ~ 0 a) — _ 0 ~ — ~ 0 ~ _ ~ 0 a, _ 0 ~ — ·., ·_ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ s E _ ~ ~ s ~ ~ := J ~ ~ .. 4 O — ·e C) LU a! — o — o o o - : ~ z cn 132

Table 5. Historical and Projected Vacancy Ratios, Biomedical Sciences, 1973-2000 Annual Averages Total R&D Post- Year Vacancies Ph.D.s Ratio Vacancies does Ratio 1973-78 3455 3499 0.99 2344 2868 0.82 1978-83 3957 3763 1.05 2863 3788 0.76 1983-87 4846 3862 1.25 4157 4072 1.02 1987-95 Low 4047 3662 1.11 3086 3900 0.79 Mid 5955 3969 1.50 4626 3900 1.19 High 8063 4298 1.88 6386 3900 1.64 NOTE: Assumes that Ph.D. production changes in proportion to enrollment assumptions and postdoctoral production remains constant. SOURCE: National Research Council. 133

**************** * * ***************** * ********************* ********************************* * * * BIOMEDICAL PH.D. R&D PROJECTION MODEL * * * * Mid Case R&D * * * * * * * ****** **************************** ** **************************************************** ** Prolected Years Growth Rates (base = 1987) Bio Age 1987 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 _1995 2000 1991 1995 2000 <30 1025 1903 2173 2453 2426 2489 2572 3282 20.r% 12~2% 9~4% 30~34 7484 11520 12769 14065 14597 15419 16344 21127 14~3% 10~3% 8~3% 35~39 9099 10019 10312 10635 11730 12725 13766 18926 3~2% 5~3% 5~8% 40~44 9545 9297 9227 9173 9383 9546 9733 13053 -0~8% 0~2% 2~4% 45 ~49 6475 6846 6941 7026 6958 6888 6828 7126 1 ~ 8% 0 ~ 7~o 0 ~ r/o 50~54 3919 4545 4708 4852 4921 4975 5020 5062 4er% 3.1% 2~0% 55~59 3104 3368 3437 3497 3698 3868 4009 4407 2~6% 3~2% 2.r/o 60-64 2148 2116 2102 2085 2212 2313 2392 2821 ~0~5% 1 ~4% 2e 1% 65-69 770 657 630 603 626 621 614 697 ~4~9% -2~8% -0~8% >=70 191 150 140 131 139 136 132 148 ~7~5% ~4~5% -2.0% Total 43760 50420 52440 54520 56690 58980 61410 76650 4~6% 4~3% 4~4% Percent Distribution <30 2~3% 3~8% 4e 1% 4~5% 4~3% 4~2% 4~2% 4~3% 30~34 17.1% 22~8% 24~3% 25~8% 25.r/o 26.1% 26~6% 27~6% 35~39 20~8% 19~9% 19ar/o 19~5% 20.r/o 21~6% 22~4% 24ar/o 40~44 21~8% 18~4% 17~6% 16~8% 16~6% 16~2% 15~8% 17~0% 45~49 14~8% 13~6% 13~2% 12~9% 12~3% 11.r/o 11 ~ 1% 9~3% 50~54 9~0% 9~0% 9~0% 8~9% 8ar/o 8~4% 8~2% 6~6% 55~59 7~1% 6ar/o 6~6% 6~4% 6~5% 6~6% 6~5% 5ar/o 60-64 4~9% 4~2% 4~0% 3~8% 3~9% 3~9% 3~9% 3~7% 65-69 1 a8% 1 a3% 1.2% 1 ~ 1% 1 ~ 1% 1 ~ 1% 1.0% 0~9% >=70 0~4% 0~3% 0~3% 0~2% 0~2% 0~2% 0~2% 0~2% 14~2% 12~5% 12~0% 11 a6% 11 a8% 11.8% 11 a6% 10~5% Average Mean Biological Age Annual Vacancies (base = 1990) 43~7 42~5 42~2 41~9 41~8 41~7 41~5 40~9 Totat Vacancies 1 991 1 995 2000 D&R 804 782 764 748 798 808 910 793 784 857 Quits 1529 1586 1642 1699 1765 1833 2247 1557 1675 1888 Growth 2010 2020 2080 2170 2290 2430 3550 2015 2167 2780 Total 4343 4388 4486 4617 4852 5071 6707 4365 4626 5525 Attrition Rates D&R 1.r/O 1~6% 1~5% 1~4% 1~4% 1~4% 1~2% Quits 3~2% 3~1% 3~1% 3~1% 3~1% 3~1% 3~1% Total 4~8% 4er/o 4~6% 4~5% 4~5% 4~5% 4~3% 134

43.7 43~4 43.3 43.3 43.4 43.3 43.3 42.9 *********** *** ********************* ************** ************************************** * * * * * BIOMEDICAL PHO PROJECTION MODEL * * * * Mid Case * * * * * * ****************************************************************************************** Growth Rates Pro~ected Years tbase = 1987) Bio Age 1987 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 2000 1991 1995 2000 : <30 1786 2577 2831 3105 3073 3257 3337 4223 12.2X 8.1% 6.8% 30-34 13042 16684 17830 19061 19605 20793 21827 27810 8.1% 6.6% 6.0% 35-39 15857 16m 17050 17353 18531 19326 20579 26m 1.8% 3.3% 4.1% 40-44 16633 16735 16808 16910 17197 17283 17571 21448 0.3% o . rx 2.0% 45-49 11283 12522 12910 13290 13307 13312 13373 14089 3.4% 2.1% 1.7°X 50-54 6830 8441 8926 9386 9683 9957 10223 10890 6.9% 5.2% 3.r/O 55-59 5410 6323 6615 6898 7478 8001 8474 10162 5.2% 5.8% 5.0% 60-64 3743 4088 4188 4280 4635 4949 5235 6873 2.8% 4.3% 4.8% 65-69 1342 1389 1390 1381 1488 1489 1491 1&67 0.9°X 1.3% 2.6% >=70 334 335 332 326 361 354 349 422 -0.1% 0.6% 1.8% Tota l 76260 85870 88~0 91990 95360 98720 102460 124560 Percent Distribution <30 2.3% 3.0% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2% 3.3% 3.3% 3.4% 30-34 17.1°X 19.4% 20.1% 20.r/o 20.6% 21.1% 21.3% 22.3% 35-39 20.8% 19.5% 19.2% 18.9°X 19.4% 19.6% 20.1% 21.5% 40-44 21.8% 19.5% 18.9°% 18.4% 18.0°K 17.5% 17.1% 17.2% 45-49 14.8°% 14.6% 14.5% 14.4% 14.0% 13.5% 13.1% 11.3% 50-54 9.0% 9.8X 10.0% 10.2% 10.2% 10.1% 10.0% 8.7°X 55-59 7.1% 7.4% 7.4% 7.5% 7.8% 8.1% 8.3% 8.2% 60-64 4.9% 4.8% 4.rX 4.r/O 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 5.5% 65-69 t.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% >=70 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 3.9% 3.8% 3.8% =>55 14.2% 14.1% 14.1% 14.0% 14.6% 15.0% 15.2% 15.5% Average Mean B i o l og i ca l Age Annua l Vacanc i es (base = 1990) 1991 1995 l- 2000 Tota l Vacanc i es D&R 1564 1582 1593 1601 1788 1816 2154 1573 1657 1859 Quits 837 883 927 977 994 1040 1230 860 943 1034 Growth 3540 3010 3110 3370 3360 3740 5790 3275 3355 4665 Total 5941 5475 5630 5948 6142 6596 9174 5708 5955 7558 Attrition Rates D&R 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.rX 1.9°X 1.B% 1.8% Quits 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% Total 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 135

APPENDIX 137

Table A-1. Academic Projection Models Biomedical Sciences Employment Projected Non- Wgt Total Non- % Year Total R&D R&D R&D$ Encil Fac. R&D R&D R&D Assumpt i on 3. 0% 0. 0% 73 25471 15556 9915 1184.3 158698 23609 9190 14419 38.9 75 28332 18040 10292 1192.6 180485 27048 9825 17223 36.3 77 30384 17861 12523 1269 195353 31259 12884 18375 41.2 79 33566 18551 15015 1346.9 197091 33545 15006 18539 44.7 81 36482 19854 16628 1488.3 191996 35974 16397 19577 45 . 6 83 36963 20053 16910 1571 .3 190546 37403 1711 1 20291 45 .7 85 41032 21425 19607 1828.6 190291 41439 19802 21637 47.8 87 43025 20274 22751 2142.3 189218 44106 23323 20783 52.9 88 2206.5 189218 44495 23712 20783 53.3 89 2272.7 189218 44841 24058 20783 53.7 90 2340.9 189218 45147 24364 20783 54.0 91 2411 .1 189218 45416 24633 20783 54.2 92 2483.5 189218 45650 24867 20783 54.5 93 2558.0 189218 45852 25069 20783 54.7 94 2634.7 189218 46027 25244 20783 54.8 95 2713.8 189218 46176 25393 20783 55.0 96 2795.2 189218 46302 25519 20783 55.1 97 2879.0 189218 46409 25626 20783 55 .2 98 2965 .4 189218 46498 25715 20783 55 .3 99 3054.4 189218 46572 25789 20783 55.4 100 3146.0 189218 46634 25851 20783 55.4 NOTE: The Academic Projection Model uses the Singer model and assumes the following: The non-A&D faculty to student ratio (.1098 in 1987) will remain constant through projection period; therefore taking .1098 of wet. enrollment gives non-A&D employment. R&D faculty employment is simply total-non-A&D. The Singer model is used to project total faculty employment: F/WS = (K-C) exp(-e~a bM))+C Where K and C are scaling constants a,b are model parameters M= biomedical R&D expenditures F= biomedical faculty WS= . 25* ( undergrads)+. 75* ( grad students) Coef. Est. Std.Er. t - a 2.391 2.6316 0.9085 b 0.0019 0.0024 0.8182 C 0.1005 0.0454 2.2121 K 0.2519 0.1607 1.5674 N= 10 S\d Er= . 00580 R = .965 3 8

Table A-2. Industrial Projection Models, Biomedical Sciences Year Totat R&D Employment BLS Projected Non- Priv DRG Total _R&D$ Outp Ind Non- % = R&D R&D Assumption 73 5887 1757 4130 75 7502 2501 5001 77 7755 2626 5129 79 9633 3276 6357 81 11785 4463 =22 83 13729 5239 8490 85 15960 6296 9664 87 18562 5875 12687 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 4.0% 991 165.3 1037 178.4 1139 203.8 1265 218.1 1497 230.0 1871 245.8 2249 250.9 2768 281.8 2879 293.1 2994 287.4 3114 312.7 3238 325.4 3368 338.5 3502 354.7 3642 367.0 3788 383.9 3940 381.2 4097 399.2 4261 410.2 4432 426.6 4609 458.0 6340 4657 7081 4860 8575 5309 9718 5863 11228 6885 13525 8531 15398 10195 18954 12480 19514 13174 19787 13681 21354 14208 22425 14757 23534 15327 24794 15920 25916 16537 27253 17178 27809 17845 29243 18539 30417 19260 31842 20011 33914 20791 1682 73.5 2221 68.6 3266 61.9 3854 60.3 4344 61.3 4994 63.1 5203 66.2 6474 65.8 6340 67.5 6105 69.1 7146 66.5 7668 65.8 8207 65.1 8874 64.2 9380 63.8 10075 63.0 9964 64.2 10704 63.4 11157 63.3 11831 62.8 13123 61.3 NOTE: The Industriat Projection Model uses an R&D and output model and assumes the following: 1. Industrial biomedical R&D employment is a function of private R&D expenditures as per regression Equation 1. This equation coefficient was applied to change in Priv R&D$ to determine projected employment. Industrial biomedical non-A&D employment is a function of drug industry constant dollar output as per Equation 2. This equation coefficient was applied to change in BLS drug output to determine projected employment. EQUAT I ON 1 _ (R&Demp)=f(R&D$) Regression Output: Constant 294.76 Std Err of Y Est 426.51 R Squared 0.9808 No. of Observations Degrees of Freedom 6 _ EQUAT I ON 2 (non-R&Demp)=f(drgoutp) Regression Output: Constant Std Err of r Est R Squared No. of Observations Degrees of Freedom -5117. 639.62 0.8786 8 6 X Coefficient 4.4021 X Coefficient 41.133 Standard Error of Standard Error of Coefficient 0.2512 Coefficient 6.2410 1 3 9

Table A-3. Government Projection Models, Biomedical Sciences Year Total Employment BLS Non- Pub Gov Total R&D R&D R&D$ Output Gov Prolected Non- % R&D Assumption 2.7°K 73 4338 1244 3094 2103 110.4 4479 2929 1550 65.4 75 4517 1410 3107 2226 109.6 4559 3071 1489 67.4 77 4568 1632 2936 2397 109.5 4760 3279 1481 68.9 79 5080 1759 3321 2612 111.0 5157 3561 1596 69.1 81 5398 1&69 3529 2484 115.0 5292 3390 1902 64.1 83 5988 2380 3608 2504 119.0 5625 3416 2208 60.7 85 6479 2661 3818 2942 122.6 6526 4042 2484 61.9 87 7049 2379 4670 3120 124.5 6957 4328 2629 62.2 88 3204 125.2 7256 4823 2433 66.5 89 3291 124.8 7388 4986 2402 67.5 90 3380 126.4 76&4 5159 2524 67.1 91 3471 127.2 7929 5343 2586 67.4 92 3565 128.0 8186 5539 2647 67.7 93 3661 128.9 8464 5748 2716 67.9 94 3760 129.7 8747 5970 Em 68.3 95 3861 130.7 9061 6207 2854 68.5 96 3965 130.6 9307 6461 2846 69.4 97 4072 131.7 9662 6732 2930 69.7 98 4182 132.3 9998 7022 2976 70.2 99 4295 133.3 10386 7333 3053 70.6 100 4411 135.3 10873 7667 3206 70.5 NOTE: The Government Projection Model uses an R&D and output model and assumes the following: 1. Government biomed R&D Employment is a function of Federal R&D expenditures as per regression Equation 1. Th is equation coefficient was applied to change in Fed REDS to determine projected Ernployrnent. 2. Government blamed non-A&D EmployTent is a function of federal government constant dollar output as per Equation 2. This equation coefficient was applied to change in BLS government output to determine projected Employment. _ EQUATION 1 Ln(R&Demp)=F(fed REDS) Regression Output: Constant 7.1749 Std Err of Y Est 0.0751 R Squared 0.7803 No. of Observations 8 Degrees of Freedom 6 EQUATION 2 (Non-R&Demp)=F(fed output) Regression Output: Constant Std Err of Y Est R Squared No. of Observations Degrees of Freedom -6903. 213.73 0.8477 8 6 X Coefficient 0.0003 X Coefficient 76.565 Standard Error Standard Error of Coefficient 0.0000 of Coefficient 13.248 140

Table A-4. All Other Employment, Biomedical Sciences Employment Non- Year Total R&D Proiected Total Other R&D R&D Non- % R&D R&D Assumption 2.5% 8.0% 73 3941 1296 2645 3941 2645 1296 67.1 75 4368 1589 2779 4368 2779 1589 63.6 77 5215 2015 3200 5215 3200 2015 61.4 79 6102 2344 3758 6102 3758 2344 61.6 81 6348 2204 4144 6348 4144 2204 65.3 83 5964 2766 3198 5964 3198 2766 53.6 85 6852 3271 3581 6852 3581 3271 52.3 87 7626 3970 3656 7626 3656 3970 47.9 88 0.0482 0.0832 0.0233 8035 3748 4287 46.6 89 8472 3842 4630 45.3 90 8938 3938 5000 44.1 91 9437 4036 5400 42.8 92 9969 4137 5833 41.5 93 10540 4240 6299 40.2 94 11149 4346 6803 39.0 95 11802 4455 7347 37.7 96 12502 4566 7935 36.5 97 13250 4681 8570 35.3 98 14053 4798 9255 34.1 99 14913 4918 9996 33.0 100 15836 5041 10796 31.8 NOTE: The "All Other" sector is a simple trend model that projects assigned rates of growth for the R&D and non-A&D sectors through the year 2000. 141

Table A-5. Academic Projection Models, Nonclinical Psychology Nonclinical Psych Prolected Year Total Employment Non- R&D R&D Total Beh Sc Total Fac. Fac. Non- % R&D R&D Assumption -2.0% 73 9452 7380 2072 19900 9452 On 80 2072 21.9% 75 10863 9016 1847 23600 10863 9016 1847 17.0% 77 10905 8799 2106 25600 10905 8799 2106 19.3% 79 11538 8729 2809 26900 11538 8729 2809 24.3X 81 12586 9836 2750 28200 12586 9836 2750 21.9% 83 12404 9785 2619 29800 12404 9785 2619 21.1% 85 13221 10655 2566 31700 13221 10655 2566 19.4X 87 13058 9972 3086 31800 13058 9972 3086 23.6% 88 31732 13026 2745 10281 21.1% 89 31635 12986 2740 10246 21.1% 90 31444 12908 2724 10184 21.1% 91 31166 12794 2699 10094 21.1% 92 30806 12646 2668 9978 21.1% 93 30369 12466 2630 9836 21.1% 94 29860 12257 2586 9671 21.1% 95 29283 12021 2536 9484 21.1% 96 28644 11758 2481 9277 21.1% 97 27945 11472 2420 9051 21.1% 98 27192 11162 2355 8807 21.1% 99 26388 10832 2286 8547 21.1% 100 25536 10483 2212 8271 21.1% NOTE: The Academic Projection Model uses a quadratic regression of total behavioral faculty = f (behavioral graduate students): 1. Growth assumptions for behavioral student enrollment provided by the committee. The portion of total behavioral faculty that is clinical psychology, nonclinical psychology, and "Other Behavioral Sciences" remains fixed at 1987 levels. 3. The portion of nonclinical psychology in R&D, which has averaged 21.1 percent from 1973-1987, remains fixed. 142

Table A-6. Industrial Projection Models, Nonclinical Psychology Employment Proiected Non- Total Non- % rear Total R&D R&D Ind R&D R&D R&D Assumption 3.0% 73 1322 811 511 1322 511 811 38.6 75 1619 984 635 1619 635 984 39.2 77 1787 1031 756 1787 756 1031 42.3 79 1676 950 726 1676 726 950 43.3 81 2731 1765 966 2731 966 1765 35~4 83 3586 2481 1105 3586 1105 2481 30.8 85 3194 2140 1054 3194 1054 2140 33.0 87 3400 2511 889 3400 889 2511 26.1 88 3502 1264 2238 36.1 89 3607 1302 2305 36.1 90 3715 1341 2374 36.1 91 3827 1381 2445 36.1 92 3942 1423 2519 36.1 93 4060 1466 2594 36.1 94 4182 1510 2672 36.1 95 4307 1555 2752 36.1 96 4436 1601 2835 36.1 97 4569 1650 2920 36.1 98 4706 1699 3007 36.1 99 4848 1750 3098 36.1 100 4993 1802 3191 36.1 NOTE: The Industrial Projection Model is a simple trend Todel that grows 1987 Employment to the year 2000 using committee assumptions of: Growth of 2 percent, 3 percent and 4 percent. The average proportion of total industry nonclinical psychology employment that is engaged in R&D for the 1973-1987 period (.06%) will remain fixed throughout the projection period. 143

Table A-7. Government Projection Models, Nonclinical Psychology Employment Proiected Non- Total Non- % Year Total R&D R&D Gov R&D R&D R&D Assumption 73 1083 426 657 1083 657 426 60.7 75 1170 345 825 1170 825 345 70.5 77 1404 495 909 1404 909 495 64.7 79 1164 334 830 1164 830 334 71.3 81 1235 487 748 1235 748 487 60.5 83 1320 670 650 1320 650 670 49.3 85 1189 511 678 1189 678 511 57.0 87 1724 711 1013 1724 1013 711 58.7 88 1741 1072 669 61.6 89 1759 1083 675 61.6 90 1776 1094 682 61.6 91 1794 1105 689 61.6 92 1812 1116 696 61.6 93 1830 1127 703 61.6 94 1848 1139 710 61.6 95 1867 1150 717 61.6 96 1884 1160 723 61.6 97 1901 1171 730 61.6 98 1918 1181 736 61.6 99 1935 1192 743 61.6 100 1952 1203 750 61.6 NOTE: The Government Projection Model is a simple trend model that uses the BLS estimates of growth in total psychologists (1 percent from 1987-1995; .09 percent from 1995-2000). The average proportion of scientists involved in R&D for the 1973-87 period (61.6 percent) was assigned constant over the projection period. 144

Table A-8. All Other Employment, Nonclinical Psychology Employment Proiected Non- Total Non- % Year Total R&D R&D Other R&D R&D R&D Assumption 3.4% -0.5% 7.2% 73 1043 407 636 1043 636 407 61.0 75 1159 520 639 1159 639 520 55.2 77 1221 684 537 1221 537 684 44.0 79 1409 833 576 1409 576 833 40.9 81 1433 875 558 1433 558 875 38.9 83 1413 1022 391 1413 391 1022 27.7 85 1497 1111 386 1497 386 1111 25.8 87 1662 1075 587 1662 587 1075 35.3 88 0.0338 0.0718 -0.005 1736 584 1152 33.6 89 1795 581 1235 32.4 90 1856 578 1324 31.2 91 1918 575 1419 30.0 92 1983 572 1521 28.9 93 2050 569 1630 27.8 94 2120 567 1747 26.7 95 2191 564 1872 25.7 96 2265 561 2007 24.8 97 2342 558 2151 23.8 98 2421 555 2305 22.9 99 2503 553 2471 22.1 100 2587 550 2648 21.2 NOTE: The "All Other" sector is a simple trend model that projects assigned rates of growth for the R&D and non-A&D sectors through the year 2000. The rates of growth are the 1973-1987 rates for non-A&D (7.2 percent per annex) and R&D (-0.5 percent per annex). 145

Table A-9. Academic Projection Models, Other Behavioral Sciences Other Behavioral Sciences Prolected Employment Total Non- Beh Sc Total Non- % Year Total R&D R&D Fac. Fac. R&D R&D R&D Assu I pt i on -2. 0% 73 6135 5201 934 19900 6135 5201 934 15.2 75 7621 6559 1062 23600 7621 6559 1062 13.9 77 9239 7784 1455 25600 9239 7784 1455 15 .8 79 9568 7915 1653 26900 9568 7915 1653 17.3 81 9477 8074 1403 28200 9477 8074 1403 14.8 83 1 1002 9546 1456 29800 1 1002 9546 1456 13.2 85 11009 9530 1479 31700 11009 9530 1479 13.4 87 10767 9079 1688 31800 10767 9079 1688 15.7 88 31732 10741 1602 9139 14.9 89 31635 10708 1596 9113 14.9 90 31444 10644 1586 9058 14 .9 91 31166 10550 1572 8978 14.9 92 30806 10428 1554 8874 14 .9 93 30369 10280 1532 8748 14 . 9 94 29860 10108 1506 8602 14.9 95 29283 9912 1477 8435 14 .9 96 28644 9696 1445 8251 14.9 97 27945 9459 1409 8050 14.9 98 27192 9204 1371 7833 14 .9 99 26388 8932 1331 7601 14.9 100 25536 8644 1288 7356 14.9 NOTE: The Academic Projection Model uses a quadratic regression of total behavioral faculty = f (behavioral graduate students). 1. Growth assumptions in behavioral student enrollment provided by the committee. The portion of total behavioral faculty that is clinical psychology, nonclinical psychology, and "Other Behavioral Sciences" remains fixed at 1987 levels. 3. The portion of other behavioral sciences in R&D, which has average 14.9 percent from 1973-1987, remains fixed. 146

Table A-10. All Other EmployTent, Other Behavioral Sciences Employment Non- Year Total R&D R&D Proi ected Total Non- % Ind R&D R&D R&D Assurnpt i on 3.0% 0.07 0.1491 73 456 179 277 456 277 179 60.8 75 579 201 378 579 378 201 65.4 77 837 328 509 837 509 328 60.9 79 1277 450 827 1277 827 450 64.8 81 1343 524 819 1343 819 524 61.0 83 1476 1028 448 1476 448 1028 30.3 85 1680 1308 372 1680 372 1308 22.2 87 1969 1254 715 1969 715 1254 36.3 88 0.1101 0.1491 0.0700 2206 765 1441 34.7 89 2474 819 1656 33.1 90 2779 876 1903 31.5 91 3124 937 2186 30.0 92 3515 1003 2512 28.5 93 3960 1073 2887 27.1 94 4465 1148 3317 25.7 95 5040 1229 3812 24.4 96 5695 1315 4380 23.1 97 6440 1407 5033 21.8 98 7289 1505 5783 20.7 99 8256 1611 6646 19.5 100 9360 1723 7637 18.4 NOTE: The "All Other" projection model is a simple trend model that grows 1987 ernployTent to the year 2000 assuming that 1973-1987 historical growth rates in the R&D (7 percent) and non-A&D (14.9 percent) would continue through 2000. 147

Table A-11. Behavioral Enrollment Faculty, All Behavioral Sciences Assumption -2.0% -2.0% Year Est Behav. Undergrad Enroll Est Behav. Grad Enroll Estimated Total Total Fac Student 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 705.8 695.6 672.6 668.1 671.8 663.5 648.9 612.8 604.8 593.6 589.8 574.5 563.0 551.7 540.7 529.9 519.3 508.9 498.7 488.8 479.0 469.4 460.0 450.8 441.8 433.0 424.3 415.8 407.5 44.7 48.2 51.7 55.4 59.1 58.3 63.8 63.8 63.8 64.8 64.3 63.1 63.7 65.6 65.3 65.1 63.8 62.5 61.3 60.0 58.8 57.7 56.5 55.4 54.3 53.2 52.1 51.1 50.1 19.9 21.7 23.6 24.6 25.6 26.2 26.9 27.5 28.2 29.0 29.8 30.7 31.7 31.7 31.8 31.7 31.6 31.4 31.2 30.8 30.4 29.9 29.3 28.6 27.9 27.2 26.4 25.5 750.5 743.8 724.3 723.5 no.s 721.8 712.7 676.6 668.6 658.4 654~1 637.6 626.7 617.3 606~0 595.0 583~1 571.4 560.0 548.8 537.8 527.1 516.5 506.2 496.1 486.2 476.4 466.9 457.6 . NOTE: Growth assumptions regarding enrollments in behavioral sciences were provided by the corr~nittee. Faculty = f (behavioral graduate students) Regression Output: Constant Std Err of Y Est R Squared NOa of Observations Degrees of Freedom X Coefficient Standard Error of Coefficient 3.5676722079 0.0207556027 0.9032859059 15 12 0.0001001 -0.0000000014 0.0001713 0.0000000088 148

Table A-12. Summary Projections for Nonclinical Psychology Nonclinical Sensitivity Model Model Assumptions (in percent) 1. Graduate Student Enrollment 2. Industrial Employment Growth High Mid Low 1.0 0.0 -1~0 4.0 3.0 2.0 Projected Employment of Nonclinical Psychologists, 1973-2000 (in 100s of workers) Low Case Mid Case Year Total R&D % R&D Total R&D % R&D High Case Total R&D % R&D 1973 129~0 38~8 30~0 129~0 38~8 30~0 129~0 38~8 30~0 1975 148~1 39~5 26~6 148~1 39~5 26~6 148~1 39~5 26~6 1977 153~2 43~1 28~1 153~2 43~1 28~1 153~2 43~1 28~1 1979 157~9 49~4 31~3 157~9 49~4 31~3 157~9 49~4 31~3 1981 179~9 50~2 27~9 179~9 50~2 27a9 179~9 50~2 27~9 1983 187~2 47~7 25~5 187~2 47~7 25~5 187~2 47~7 25~5 1985 191~0 46~8 24~5 191~0 46~8 24~5 191~0 46~8 24~5 1987 198~4 55~7 28~1 198~4 55~7 28~1 198~4 55~7 28~1 1988 200 ~ 0 54 ~ 9 27.5 200 ~ 3 55 ~ 0 27e 5 200 ~ 7 55 ~ 2 27a 5 1989 195~5 54~0 27~6 202~2 55~5 27~4 204~9 56~1 27~4 1990 195~2 53~9 27~6 204~0 55~9 27~4 209~2 57.1 27~3 1991 194~9 53~9 27~6 206~0 56~3 27~4 213~6 58~1 27~2 1992 194~8 53~8 27~6 207~9 56~8 27~3 218~2 59~2 27~1 1993 194~7 53~8 27~6 210~0 57~2 27~3 223~0 60~2 27~0 1994 194~7 53~8 27~6 212~1 57~7 27~2 227~9 61~3 26~9 1995 194~8 53~7 27~6 214~2 58~2 27~2 232~9 62~5 26~8 1996 194~9 53~7 27~6 216~4 58~7 27~1 238~1 63~6 26~7 1997 195~1 53~7 27~5 218~7 59~2 27~0 243~4 64~8 26~6 1998 195~4 53~8 27~5 221~0 59~7 27~0 249~0 66~1 26~5 1999 195~8 53~8 27~5 223~4 60~2 26~9 254~7 67~4 26~5 2000 199 ~ 2 54 ~ 5 27e 3 225 ~ 9 60 ~ 7 26 ~ 9 260 ~ 6 68 ~ 7 26 ~ 4 Growth Rates (in percent): 1973-1987 3~1 2~6 3~1 2~6 3~1 2~6 1987-1991 ~0~4 ~0~9 0~9 0~3 1~9 1~0 1987-2000 0~0 -0~2 1.0 0~7 2~1 1~6 NOTE: This table does not include postdoctoral employment or unemployment. SOURCE: Estimated by National Research Council. 149

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Table A-13. Estimated Quit Rates for All Behavioral Scientists, 1983-1987 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Behav Total Beh Sci Annual Annual Career R&D & Postdoc Total Ph.D.s per Quit R&D Quit Age Behav Mgt R&D _ Behav Retired Ph.D.s -Retire 1000 Sci Rate Rate <=5 41948 5607 1834 139 201127 200988 218 6-10 43488 6282 343 373 217900 217527 201 -3.1% -7.5X 11-15 36561 4612 127 990 215219 214229 171 -6.3% -12.0% 16-20 23923 2915 68 2279 156711 154432 155 -3.8% -5.3XO 21-25 13410 1463 51 4041 91497 87456 154 -0.4% -4.3% 26-30 10323 1271 38 6428 67207 60779 170 4.2% 9.1% 31-35 6155 950 8 13162 55931 42769 144 -6.5% 1.6% 36-40 1456 261 0 11772 26355 14583 100 -13.rX -8.6% 41+ 303 43 0 6507 11240 4733 64 -16.3% -23.8% SOURCE: 1983, 1985, and 1987 Survey of Doctorate Recipients, National Research Council. Table A-14. Historical and Projected Vacancy Ratios, Nonclinical Psychology, 1973-2000 Annual Averages Total Year Vacancies Ph.D.s Ratio Vacancies Ph.D.s R&D Post - Vacancies does Ratio 1973-78 1189 1592 0.75 385 196 1.96 1978-83 1386 1555 0.89 359 226 1.59 1983-87 1291 1435 0.90 422 261 1.61 1990-95 Low 995 1260 0.79 320 300 1.07 Mid 1252 1366 0.92 380 300 1.27 High 1551 1479 1.05 449 300 1.50 NOTE: Assumes that Ph.D. production changes in proportion to enrollment assumptions and postdoctoral production remains constant. SOURCE: National Research Council. 1 5

Table A-15. Summary Projections for Other Behavioral Scientists Model Assumptions High Mid Low 1. Graduate Student Enrollment 1.0% 0.0X -1.0% 2. "All other" Employment Growth R&D 7.0% 5.0% 3.0% NonR&D 0.15 0.1 0.07 Projected Employment of Other Behavioral Scientists, 1973-2000 (in 100s of workers) (Grad enrollment model) Low Case Year Total R&D % R&D Mid Case Total R&D % R&D High Case Total R&D % R&D 1973 65.9 12.1 18.4 65.9 12.1 18.4 65.9 12.1 18.4 1975 82.0 14.4 17.6 82.0 14.4 17.6 82.0 14.4 17.6 1977 100.8 19.6 19.5 100.8 19.6 19.5 100.8 19.6 19.5 1979 108.5 24.8 22.9 108.5 24.8 22.9 108.5 24.8 22.9 1981 108.2 22.2 20.5 108.2 22.2 20.5 108.2 22.2 20.5 1983 124.8 19.0 15.3 124.8 19.0 15.3 124.8 19.0 15.3 1985 126.9 18.5 14.6 126.9 18.5 14.6 126.9 18.5 14.6 1987 127.4 24.0 18.9 127.4 24.0 18.9 127.4 24.0 18.9 1988 126.8 23.2 18.3 129.0 23.6 18.3 131.4 24.0 18.2 1989 126.4 23.2 18.3 130.7 23.9 18.3 135.8 24.7 18.2 1990 126.1 23.1 18.4 132.6 24.3 18.3 140.6 25.6 18.2 1991 125.9 23.2 18.4 134.7 24.7 18.4 145.9 26.4 18.1 1992 125.8 23.2 18.4 137.0 25.2 18.4 151.6 27.4 18.1 1993 125.9 23.2 18.4 139.5 25.6 18.4 158.0 28.4 17.9 1994 126.0 23.3 18.5 142.2 26.1 18.4 165.0 29.4 17.8 1995 126.4 23.3 18.5 145.1 26.6 18.3 172.8 30.5 17.6 1996 126.8 23.4 18.5 148.3 27.1 18.3 181.5 31.7 17.4 1997 127.4 23.5 18.4 151.8 27.7 18.2 191.1 32.9 17.2 1998 128.2 23.6 18.4 155.7 28.3 18.2 201.9 34.2 16.9 1999 129.1 23.7 18.4 159.9 28.9 18.1 213.9 35.6 16.6 2000 130.2 23.8 18.3 164.4 29.5 18.0 227.4 37.1 16.3 Growth Rates: 73-87 4.8% 5.0°/O 4.8% 5.0% 4.8% 5.~% 87-91 -0.3% -0.9% 1.4% o.rx 3.4% 2.4% 87-;20 0.2% -0.1% 2.0% 1.6% 4.6% 3.4% NOTE: This table does not include postdoctoral employment or unernployrnent. SOURCE: Estimated by National Research Council. 152

to to to J 3 1 0 0 0 I~ ~ ~ ~ ~ sat C) 0 ~ ~ o o o ~ lo o~t · a a a a a a · ~ CY ~ O ~ ~ U. ~ O ~ r~ _ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ X ~ ~ 0 `0 ~ U~ 0 ~ O %0 ~ · · · e a ~ a a ~ O ~ O ~ U' 0 ~ O 1~ ~ ~ S~ X r~ ~ 0 0 0 o, r_ ~ 08 · a a · · · · · a =: ~ ~ O ~ 1^ 1~- 0 0 t~l 0 ~ 3 J I o 0 C~ _ 0` ~ U. O `0 `0 ··· ··· ··~ O - o ~ ~ 0 ~ O ~ ~ ~ 1 o O C] ~ 0% 0~ 0 0 ~ ~1 0 r~ O ~ ... ... ... ~ CY ~ ~ ~ U' ~ 0 0 0 ~ o0` 0 u~ u' ~ 0 IO ~ O ~ ... ... ... r~ ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ C~ ~ O O 4— ~ _ ~ ~ O ~ 0 ~ ~ ~ ~ {D ~ · · · · a · a a a ~ 0~ ~ ~ O ~0 ~ O ' >. O 0 0 tO -t U-\ 0~ ~' ' ~ ~ ' .~ cn 4 B_ O C) 0` 0~ C~ ~ ~ 0` ~ ~ ~ t~ 0 °is a a ~ ~ ~ a a a a ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 0` 0 ~ 0 c_ . ~_ ~ u) ~ O ~ 0~ - ~ ` - t~ ~ ~ a a a ~ a ~ a a ~ ~ a, o~ ~ u' ~o ~ 0 0 0~ ~ ~ `0 O ~ ~ ~ -— ~ ~J ~I N O 3 a _# _ ~ ~ %0 U~ ~ ~ 0K ~ 0~ _ ~) ~ ~ ~ ~ a ~ a a a ~ c_ m 4 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ u' ~ u~ 0 0 0 . ~ ~ r~ ~ r~ . ~ · a) ~ 0 ~ a JJ 0 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o~ o~ t). cY u~ u~ u~ ~0 ~0 %0 0 0 0 a~ a o~ ._ ~ o~ ~ o~ ~ ~ ~ 0 0 0 2~ _ |~—~ ~ a a a, 0 06 ~ ~o ~o ~ ~ h_ ~ ~ ~ ~ ._ 0~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O O ~ _ e_ Q _ t_ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ O ... ... ... 4- ~ ~ r~ o~ g' O O O O ~ ~ ~ - 1 ~J ~J O Q :' 1~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ cn ~ ~n ~ ~ ~ ._ 8 ~ ~ _ ~ ~ a' a, ~ ~ ~— cn cn cn ~ O a~ ~ a) a~ a~ — ~ 41) C~ ~ 0) ~ cl~ 4) (~ tO O Q Cl) tlJ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ X . .O ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ .. ~ 0 G, 3 ~ ~ 0 3 ~ C~ — 3 ~ ~ ·e C~ _ ~ {~ 0 a~ a_ 0 a~ ~— a~ 0 6)~— llJ Q ~ ~S J ~ ~ = J ~ O O ~ ~ CD eS ~C ~ Z CO 153

Table A-16. Historical and Projected Vacancy Ratios, Other Behavioral Sciences, 1973-2000 Annual Averages Post- Year Vacancies PhDs Ratio Vacancies does Ratio 1973-78 1152 1211 0.95 289 97 2.97 1978-83 930 1093 0.85 120 124 0.97 1983-87 875 943 0.93 185 120 1.54 1987-95 Low 649 814 0.80 142 120 1.18 Mid 927 882 1.05 191 120 1.59 High 1353 955 1.42 250 120 2.08 NOTE: Assumes that Ph.D. production changes in proportion to enrollment assumptions and postdoctoral production remains constant. Grad model. SOURCE: National Research Council. 154

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