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1. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF NUMERICAL RECOMMENDATIONS,
FISCAL YEARS 1982-1985
OBJECTIVES OF THE 1981 REPORT
The Committee's objectives for this year's report are five-fold:
(1) to revise and extend through FY 1985 its specific recommendations on
the numbers of NRSA awards that should be provided for the support of
predoctoral and postdoctoral research training in the areas of the basic
biomedical and behavioral sciences, health services research and nursing
research, and the numbers of postdoctoral awards in the clinical
sciences; (2) to recommend an appropriate distribution of these awards
between traineeships and fellowships for each of these broad categories
of training; (3) to present the results of special studies conducted for
the Committee concerning recruitment of more M.D.'s into clinical
investigation; (4) to report upon recent Committee studies and new
analyses of data on recruitment, training, and employment of minorities
in research careers in the biomedical and behavioral sciences, and (5) to
discuss several program and policy issues, including the need to
stabilize federal support for research training.
STABILIZATION OF RESEARCH TRAINING SUPPORT
Stabilization of federal support for graduate education has been an
objective endorsed over the years by many reports that have examined the
federal role in graduate education. The National Science Board (1969,
p. 21) argued strongly for stability in federal support:
A graduate program can maintain high quality only if
it can be assured of continuity of essential finan-
cial support. Significant short-term variations in
funding are especially serious, for they are destruc-
tive to morale. It is more difficult and requires
longer time to build high quality than to destroy it.
The National Board on Graduate
important study, also endorsed stability:
Education (1974, p. 15), in another
Short-run stop-and-go policies toward graduate educa-
tion and research are highly destabilizing and very
inefficient whatever their origin or motivation.
Abrupt shifts in federal policy can be particularly
damaging, given the federal governmentts significant
role in supporting research and graduate students.
More recently, the National Commission on Research (1980, p. 13)
cautioned against sharp fluctuations in training support because of
difficulties in predicting personnel needs and the complexities of the
research training system.
The Committee has not directly addressed the issue of stability in
its previous reports. It seems appropriate at this time, however, to
consider the issue, particularly in light of recent congressional concern
regarding "the proper balance between stabilized research support and
stabilized training support" (U.S. Congress House, 1980~.
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Over the years of its deliberations, the Committee has had a dual
concern in response to its congressional mandate: (1) how to produce a
core of talent that will constantly replenish the research labor force,
and (2) how to assure a responsiveness to changing national research
needs. The first concern emphasizes stability, while the latter
flexibility for change. To accommodate these objectives, the Committee
has recommended two responses in the federal training system. The first
is a realignment of overall training levels to reflect lona-tenm labor
_ . .
market prospects. In the case of the basic Diomedical and Denavioral
sciences, where there have been declining academic opportunities in the
1970's that are likely to continue through the 1980's, the Committee has
recommended some reduction in the numbers of persons receiving federal
support. In the clinical sciences, where there have been consistent
problems in attracting clinicians into research, stabilization of the
numbers of persons being supported has been recommended. In the emerging
areas of health services research and nursing research, the Committee has
urged modest increases in the numbers of trainees receiving support. In
this way the Committee has suggested how to stabilize support at levels
that are justifiable on the basis of long-term market outlooks.
The second Committee response has been to distinguish between train-
ing emphases at the predoctoral and the postdoctoral levels. The Commit-
tee has argued on the Basis ot strong nel~et-s tnat pre~octora1 training
ought to be broadly grounded in the basic disciplinary areas. The
emphasis here should be on sound fundamental training. However, the long
lag time between entry into graduate school and entry into the labor
force (5-8 years, including 2-3 years of postdoctoral training) makes the
use of predoctoral training a generally inappropriate device for accom-
plishing more highly focused training needs. It is at the postdoctoral
level that specialization should primarily occur. Stability is most
essential during the long training period at the predoctoral level, while
responsiveness to national needs is most appropriate and feasible at the
postdoctoral level.
Another aspect of the Committee's concern for stability has been its
emphasis on the training grant as the primary training mechanism. AS a
5-year renewable grant which provides program as well as student support,
the training grant provides an institutional continuity and focus on the
research training process that individually awarded fellowships and
research assistantships do not. In addition, the institutional component
of the training grant provides valuable support for the training program,
e.g., guest faculty seminars and research supplies. The case studies
recently conducted by the Committee (see Chapter 3) confirm the
destabilizing influence that abrupt withdrawal of training grants has had
on some high-quality programs.
The Committee's consistent objective has been to promote the quality
of research training. Its argument for the stabilization of a core of
student support should not be construed as meaning that particular
programs or institutions should be guaranteed support indefinitely.
Training grant and fellowship awards should continue to be made on the
basis of national merit competition. Only superior programs and students
should receive support.
Recommendation. The Committee recommends that federal
support for research training should be stabilized and
provided at levels commensurate with the scope of national
needs. At the center of federal policy there should be
an irreducible number of trainees who are supported in the
basic disciplines regardless of fluctuations in demand for
short-tenm research needs. Additions and reallocations in
8
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support may be undertaken as special needs come and go.
In this way the benefits of stability can be achieved while
providing a flexibility to respond to changing priorities
in the nation's research needs. The level of stabilization
should be determined after reviewing available data, find-
ings, and recommendations, including those of this Committee.
The need for a steady infusion of young, well-trained and creative
scientists into research positions in the biomedical and behavioral
sciences is absolutely essential for maintaining the vigor of the
national research endeavor. Only under a national policy of stabilized
federal support for research training will individuals, academic
institutions, training program directors, and funding agencies be able to
plan and conduct this research training in a manner that will achieve the
most effective use of limited available funds.
TRAINING QUALITY
One of the principal themes of this report is the role of federal
programs in enhancing the quality of health research training. This
continues a theme that has been addressed in earlier reports (1976
Report, pp. 6-8; 1977 Report, pp. 185-187; 1978 Report, pp. 42-45; 1979
Report, pp. 31-34~; furthermore, at its Endicott House Conference, the
Committee gave this issue a high priority for investigation (reported in
1979 Report, pp. 12-15).
This commitment to high-quality training is founded on the
conviction that research training is a distinct activity and not simply
an incidental by-product of research and teaching activities. Without
such conviction, research training as a fundamental and long-term
investment may be sacrificed to the demands of short-term local or
national needs. The Committee's commitment to quality in research
training is reflected in its consistent emphasis on merit as the
principal criterion for awarding support and its endorsement of stability
in the funding process (see preceding section on stabilization of
research training support).
The Committee's interest in stabilizing funds for meritorious
research training is reflected in its consistent endorsement of the
training grant as the primary mechanism of support. This endorsement has
led to many efforts to investigate the link between training grants and
training quality. This past year the Panel on Basic Biomedical Sciences
conducted two case studies (and four preliminary site visits) to
departments to investigate the impact of the loss of training grant
support on predoctoral training quality, with particular reference to the
impact on the training environment. The findings of this study, reported
in Chapter 3, support the belief that training grants significantly
enhance training quality through their focus on graduate training in a
milieu of active research, on student support, and on ancillary support
of training program activities.
In the behavioral sciences (Chapter 4), the Committee continues its
emphasis on a greater utilization of postdoctoral training. The growing
importance of behavioral factors in disease means that the depth of
training must be increased beyond the basic foundations provided by even
first-rate predoctoral training programs. Therefore, there has been
consistently a recommendation to augment Federal postdoctoral training
support in order to improve the quality of researchers.
9
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In the clinical sciences, the central problem has been the
recruitment of clinicians into research careers. Part of this year's
report (Chapter 2) presents findings on the determinants of career
choice, which were obtained from studies commissioned by the Committee.
The challenge of the search for new knowledge is seen to be a major
incentive for pursuit of a research career. Another factor strongly
influencing choice of a research career is experience during medical
school as an investigator and as an author of research papers.
Finally, quality is a primary concern in the C~mmittee's considera-
tion of training support for minorities. The underrepresentation of
minorities in the health sciences deprives these fields and the nation of
an important source of talent and the benefits of a broader array of
scientific interests. The Committee is therefore disturbed at the slow
progress being made in the recruitment of minorities and in Chapter 6
makes a recommendation that the various federal programs directed to this
purpose be continued, evaluated for their effectiveness, and modified to
increase the rate of progress.
PROSPECT IVE CHANGES IN RETIREMENT
The Committee wishes to note that an unrelated congressional action
on mandatory retirement taken several years ago is likely to have impor-
tant effects within the coming year on the labor market for newly trained
scientists. The 1978 amendments to the Age Discrimination in Employment
Act exempted tenured faculty members, for a period until July 1982, from
the major provision of the Act, which raised the mandatory retirement age
from 65 to 70. Traditionally many colleges and universities required
faculty members to retire at age 65 as a method of ensuring the vigor of
their institution. Unless Congress now extends the exemption, these
institutions will no longer be able to require the retirement of senior
faculty members before age 70.
The magnitude of the shortrun effects produced by the expiration of
the exemption are difficult to predict with precision. If, however,
substantial proportions of older faculty members opt to continue teaching
until age 70, this will produce a steady reduction in the number of new
faculty openings over the next 5 years and thereafter result in a stable
but smaller number of new positions than would be available were the
exemption made a permanent one. The average age of faculty members will
be forced upward and could lead to an overall reduction in research
output since it would now be more difficult to retire less productive
older faculty members. What will actually happen remains unclear until
Congress acts on recommendations of the Department of Labor, which will
reflect in part the results of a special study commissioned to appraise
the effects of the exemption and its possible expiration. As a
consequence, this Committee has made no alterations in its projections to
reflect the effects of what could be a difficult transitional period for
newly trained young scientists.
ESTIMATION OF PERSONNEL NEEDS
A fundamental task of this study is to provide an understanding and
analysis of the system by which biomedical and behavioral scientists are
trained and absorbed into the labor force. The mechanisms that affect
10
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career choices of students must be identified and quantified as far as
possible. On the demand side, the forces that determine the number of
positions available to these scientists similarly must be identified and
measured. In short, a clear concept of how the educate on-training system
works must be developed.
In its 1977 report, the Committee presented a complete description
of this system and laid out the framework under which its study would be
conducted (NRC, 1975-80, Chapter 2 ~ . The following discussion is a
condensation and modification of: that presentation and is included here
in order to describe the process followed by the Committee in developing
its recommendations.
The population of research scientists involved consists of the
following groups of individuals:
1. Academic doctorate recipients (Ph.D., D.Sc., etc.) in the
areas and fields that the Committee has defined as biomedical
and behavioral sciences for purposes of this study.
Academic doctorate recipients in other areas who are employed
in biomedical or behavioral fields.
3.
Professional doctorate recipients (M.D., D.D.S., D.V.M., etc.)
whose primary interests and training are in research and
teaching.
4. Other professionals, usually nurses with baccalaur-
eate degrees, whose primary interests and training
are in the area of nursing research.
More than half of all biomedical and behavioral research scientists
are employed by colleges and universities (Chapter 3, Table 3.1, and
Chapter 4, Table 4.21. A good portion of the nation's biomedical and
behavioral research is conducted in academic institutions by this group
of scientists with support provided by f ederal agencies such as the NIH
and ADAMHA. It is therefore clear that the availability of faculty
positions is a critical factor affecting the employment patterns of these
research scientists. Faculty positions in turn are largely determined by
the level and pattern of student enrollments in the biomedical and
behavioral fields and by the availability of research funds at colleges
and universities.
In medical schools, clinical investigators perform patient care
duties in addition to their teaching and research activities (Chapter
21. Even those clinical faculty members who are primarily engaged in
research have devoted an increasing amount of tome in recent years to
patient care, particularly through the expansion of community health-care
programs at university medical centers. This trend is likely to continue
and therefore must be taken into account in estimating the future need
for clinical investigators.
In the biomedical fields, a postdoctoral appointment is commonly
viewed as a transition stage between the training phase and an
established position as a biomedical or clinical science investigator.
But it -s a vital stage in which much Important research is done. In
fact, many view postdoctoral training to be a combination of intensive
research activity and an opportunity to enhance the research techniques
11
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of the trainee under the guidance of an experienced investigator. It is
generally considered to be a necessary element of training for the
graduates of health professional schools, and somewhat less necessary,
but nonetheless desirable, for those with Ph.D. degrees. In most
behavioral science fields, however, where complex laboratory equipment
and procedures are not an integral part of research, a postdoctoral
period of training has been the exception rather than the rule. As
indicated above, that may be changing. Further discussion of the role of
postdoctoral training in each broad area is provided in the corresponding
chapter of this report.
As its principal tools of analysis, the Committee has developed
models--analytical schemes--of academic market demand for Ph.D. personnel
in the biomedical, behavioral, and clinical sciences. The underlying
hypothesis is that academic demand in these fields is composed of
teaching, research, and clinical care components. Changes in the amount
of funds available to support research (and patient care activities in
the case of clinical faculty) cause changes in the faculty/student ratio.
Changes in enrollments have a direct influence on the demand for faculty.
These are the basic principles upon which our projections are based .
The assumptions used in each model cover what are considered to be
the likely range of possibilities for funding levels and enrollments in
the next 5 years. Projections of demand for "faculty, " defined here as
academically employed persons who hold a doctorate, are derived from
alternative applications of the models and compared with expected growth
in the Ph.D. labor force to determine whether there will be an adequate
supply, a surplus (to be relieved by outward migration), or a shortage
(leading to additional unfilled positions, inward migration from other
f ields, or appointment of the underqualified).
On the supply side, the Committee has sought to identify the
factors that determine students' choices and their abilities to complete
their degree programs, and to explain the system within which these
factors operate.
Economic factors, some resulting from the interplay of market
forces and others from public-policy decisions that affect the cost of
education, play an important role in students' decisions to embark upon
graduate study and to choose particular fields of specialization. Rela-
tive earnings, cost and duration of study, availability of stipends and
other support, and prospects of employment in particular fields of study
are examples of such factors. The contention that the specific field of
study or the decision to obtain a Ph.D. is generally dependent upon
economic considerations does not deny the noneconomic motivations in the
demand for higher education. Rather, the argument is that marginal
choices are influenced by the relative economic attractiveness of various
alternative areas of study. Thus, projections of the supply of
biomedical and behavioral scientists, and particularly the distribution
of this supply by fields, must be grounded in accurate estimates of the
future economic status of these fields relative to other fields requiring
similar amounts of training.
Estimation of the economic prospects for the biomedical and
behavioral sciences depends in turn on the supply response of future
potential graduate students. That is, the relative salaries and prospects
for employment of these scientists depend on their number in the labor
force, as well as on research budgets and the numbers of graduate
students to be trained. Thus, as Freeman (1971) and others have shown,
the dynamics of the supply and demand for any broad area of professional
12
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manpower involves significant interactions among these factors, for which
the magnitude and speed of adjustment cannot easily be estimated. For
example, a decrease in the rate of real biomedical R and D expenditures
can be expected eventually to reduce the relative salaries of research
personnel in this area with the reductions affecting most quickly new
postdoctoral entrants into the job market. This reduction in turn will
tend to discourage first-year graduate enrollments in this area and
perhaps undergraduate majors in biology, but may also lead to some
increased utilization of the now less costly personnel in the area who
have already been trained as researchers. Even more dramatically, news
about unemployment or unsatisfactory employment of acquaintances who have
preceded them will affect the attitudes of students toward such fields
and depress graduate enrollments in the next phase of the cycle. The
reduction in numbers of graduating Ph.D.'s will tend to improve their
relative salary position and will subsequently affect future enrollments
positively.
The key questions that these concerns raise for making projections
of future needs relate to the length of time these various adjustments
will take, how complete they will be, and how strong their influence will
be. We do not have precise answers to these questions. They probably
differ from field to field and surely are influenced by the degree to
which personnel in any field have reasonably close substitutes in related
fields.
Although numerical estimates must be made, it is essential to
realize that projections of manpower supply and utilization inevitably
must be based on judgments and assumptions. In subsequent chapters these
judgments and assumptions are specified and applied to logical models of
particular components of the labor market to derive estimates of future
manpower supplies and utilization and recommended training levels for
federal programs.
The projections of academic demand resulting from the models and
the assumptions about future patterns provide the take-off points from
which the recommended levels of training are derived. In its
deliberations, the Committee has considered how the system has been
operating--to the extent that it is revealed by the data that can be
gathered--and how it is expected to operate in the next few years. Here
the dynamics of faculty accession and attrition become critical factors.
Data prepared for the Committee this year have provided some new insight
into these dynamics and have caused modif ication of some previously held
assumptions about attrition rates, for example, and the training
background of newly hired faculty members. One of the most significant
new findings is that in recent years only slightly more than 20 percent
of newly hired faculty members in clinical departments of medical schools
have had postdoctoral research training, whereas a decade ago this rate
was much higher. Perhaps more than any other evidence, this statistic
highlights the deteriorating capabilities of many young medical school
faculty members to conduct clinical research. The Committee's judgment
about what this percentage should be over the next few years is a key
element in determining the size of the postdoctoral pool required to meet
the anticipated utilization of scientists with postdoctoral training.
Also to be considered are factors that determine the number of trained
postdoctorate available to fill academic vacancies each year, i.e., the
average length of postdoctoral training and the number that can be ex-
pected to seek academic careers.
13
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While the federal government is an important source of support for
postdoctoral training in many fields, it is clear that some support is
also available from various other sources. Recent data on the portion of
the postdoctoral pool supported by f ederal training funds is the f inal
element considered in developing the recommended number of postdoctoral
trainees to be supported under NRSA programs. The complete process is
illustrated by the flow diagram in Figure 1.1.
An analagous procedure for determining the appropriate level of
predoctoral training under NRSA programs has proven more elusive. The
Key elements nere appear to ne tne level of Pn.D. production and the size
of the postdoctoral pool, although the linkage between these variables
and the amount of federal support for predoctoral training has not been
established in a rigorous fashion. However, the Committee has closely
monitored these quantities in this study and has tried to anticipate the
needs for the 1980's. Its best judgment is that the emphasis should
change from predoctoral to postdoctoral support, and recommendations have
been made for a gradual reduction in overall predoctoral training under
NRSA programs of more than 30 percent between 1975 and 1985.
Considerable uncertainty remains as to what can be said about the
statutory mandate that the Committee specify fields that should be given
priority in research training programs. This issue is intertwined with
the problem of taxonomy--the labeling and classification of the fields
within the areas of the biomedical and behavioral sciences.
In previous reports, the Committee has made recommendations in five
broad scientific areas--basic biomedical, behavioral, clinical, health
services research, and nursing research--while attempting to develop a
methodology for estimating needs at more detailed levels within these
areas. So far, compelling evidence of shortages in specific fields has
been developed only in toxicology, epidemiology, biostatistics, and most
of the clinical science f ields. One fact is becoming clear as a result
of this exploration--considerable mobility occurs within most of the
broad areas. Individuals who receive their Ph.D. in one field are
frequently found to be employed in a different but related field within
the area. From the point of view of the individual involved, this might
be called field-switching; from the employer's point of view it represents
substitutability among the fields.
Although there is little support f or the proposition that research
personnel trained in different fields are completely interchangeable,
field-switching data indicate that, within some limits as yet undefined,
substitution can and does occur. The Co~mmittee's studies are pro-
gressing, but have not yet reached the point where fields can be grouped
into those that represent homogeneous clusters within which there is
considerable mobility and between which mobility is more difficult.
TRAINING DATA FOR FY 1979 AND FY 1980
AND RECOMMENDED LEVELS FOR 1982-1985
In FY 1979, the NIH, ADAMlIA, and HRA provided support to 12, 924
trainees and fellows under the NRSA and its predecessor programs. The
total was down slightly from the 13,203 trainees and fellows supported in
FY 1978 and down significantly from the peak year of training, 1969, in
which the pre-NRSA training activity for full- and part-time trainees and
fellows totalled 19,820 (12,083 predoctoral; 5,094 M.D., D.D.S., D.V.~.,
or equivalent professional degree; and 2,643 Ph.D.'s). The largest drop
14
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INPUTS
/ Current supply/demand
indicators: enrollments,
/ degrees, postdoctoral
/ trainees, R and D funding,
/ employment patterns, etc. /
r
Update
models |
Assumptions about future / ~ -- ~
/ patterns of enrollments / '( Academic demand ``
/ R and D expenditures, r models based on ~ - /
L faculty/student ratios,etc. / ~ most rec lint date
i
/ Data on faculty dynamics:
/ attrition and accession
rates, postdoctoral train ing
of new faculty, eta;
/ Recent data on number of 7
/ postdoctoral trainees /
/ supported by N RSA programs
/ relative to total post- /
L doctoral pool size /
OUTPUTS
Projections of academic /
demand to 1985
l
Size of postdoctoral pool
required to meet estimated
faculty needs through 1985
~ 1 ,
/ Estimated number of post- /
J doctoral trainees to be /
/ supported by NRSA programs /
/ under various conditions /
FIGURE 1.1 Flow diagram of procedure followed in deriving recommendations for postdoctoral training
levels. Historical data on supply/demand indicators are updated annually and used to update the models of
academic demand. The committee's assumptions about future patterns of enrollments, R and D funding, etc.,
are used in models to derive short-term projections of academic demand. These are combined with data on
faculty attrition and accession rates and training background of new faculty members to estimate the total
postdoctoral pool size needed to satisfy demand under the assumed conditions. The portion of the total
postdoctoral pool to be supported under NRSA programs is then estimated also by reference to recent data.
15
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in FY 1979 occurred in ADAHMA programs, which were reduced by 176
training positions from BY 1978 levels, while NIH provided 97 fewer
awards and HRA dropped 6.
In terms of areas of training, the clinical sciences had an
increase over 1978 of more than 100 positions, while the behavioral
sciences lost more than 300. The remaining areas of biomedical sciences,
health services research, and nursing research had only minor reductions.
In FY 1980, the total number of awards went up by 2 percent to
13,191 trainees and fellows, still below the FY 1978 level. All the
increase occurred in NIH programs, which gained 407 training positions.
Almost 90 percent of these were in the clinical science area. ADAMHA
programs were further reduced by 140 positions, and HRA programs were
reduced by 16 from FY 1979 levels.
Tables 1.1-1.3 show the data on the agencies' training awards for
FY 1979 and FY 1980. Table 1.4 shows the Committee's recommended levels
of training in each area for FY 1982-1985.
16
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OCR for page 20
TABLE 1A Committee Recommendations for NDI/ADAMHA/ED\A P~edoctoral and Postdoctoral
Traineedhip and Fellowship Awards for FY 1982~85a
. . . .
Chnical Sciences
1982 TOTAL
Total
P~edoc.
Postdoc.
TOTAL Basic
ALL Biomedical
FIELDS Sciences
12,78S
S,99O
6,795
7,450 1,180
4,250 570
3,200 610
Other
Medical Chnical Heals
Behawore1 Scientist Science Services Nursing
SaencesC Program Programs Research Research
725 2,800 330 300
725 _d 190 25S
0 2,800 140 45
Trainees Total 8,720 4,250 970 725 2,400 250 125
Predoc. 5,690 4,250 470 725 _d 140 105
Postdoc. 3,030 0 500 0 2,400 110 20
Fellows Total 4,065 3,200 210 0 400 80 175
Predoc. 300 0 100 0 0 50 150
Postdoc. 3,76S 3,200 110 0 400 30 25
1983 TOTAL Total 12,825 7,450 1,220 725 2,800 330 300
Predoc. 5,930 4,250 S10 725 _d 190 255
Postdoc. 6,895 3,200 710 0 2,800 140 45
Trainees Total 8,750 4,250 1,000 725 2,400 250 125
Predoc. 5,640 4,250 420 725 _d 140 105
Postdoc 3,110 0 580 0 2,400 110 20
Fellows Total 4,075 3,200 220 0 400 80 175
Predoc. 290 0 90 0 0 50 150
Postdoc. 3,785 3,200 130 0 400 30 25
1984 TOTAL Total 12,865 7,450 1,260 725 2,800 330 300
Predoc S,870 4,250 450 725 _d 190 255
Postdoc. 6,995 3,200 810 0 2,800 140 45
Tramees Tom 8,780 4,250 1,030 725 2,400 250 125
Predoc. 5,590 4,250 370 725 _d 140 105
Postdoc. 3,190 0 660 0 2,400 110 20
Fellows Total 4,085 3,200 230 0 400 80 175
Predoc. 280 0 80 0 0 50 150
Postdoc 3,805 3,200 150 0 400 30 25
1985 TOTAL Total 12,905 7,450 1,300 725 2,800 330 300
Predoc 5,810 4,250 390 725 _d 190 255
Postdoc. 7,095 3,200 910 0 2,800 140 45
Trainees Total 8,820 4,250 1,070 725 2,400 250 125
Predoc. S,540 4,250 320 725 _d 140 105
Postdoc. 3,280 0 750 0 2,400 110 20
Fellows Total 4,085 3,200 230 0 400 80 175
Predoc 270 0 70 0 0 50 150
Postdoc. 3,815 3,200 160 0 400 30 25
These are total numbers of recommended awards. See Table 1.1 for number of actual awards made in FY 1979 and
PY 1980. The number of new starts in any given year is sensitive to fluctuations in the funding level and thus oscillates
more rapidly than does the total number of a~rdlees.
Recommenda~dons for biostatishcs, epidemiology, community and environmental health, and other bathing fields not
specifically Mown m this table are included here.
CThe allocation of awards in the behavioral science fields between traineeships and fellowships is based on the
distribution that pre~railedin FY 1976, be., 82 percent trainee~ips, 18 percent fellowships.
dA program of ~hort-term research training (3 months) for health professions students during summer and off-quarters
was authonzed in 1978. The Committee has endorsed this program in principle but malces no recommendations for
the number of students to be supported under it. The 1978 amendments to the NRSA Act authorized expenditures
for this program of up to 4% of appropriated training funds. In FY 1980, 50 trair~ing grants were awarded win
stipends for 911 trainees.
20
OCR for page 21
Estimated Costs
The Committee's last recommendations for training levels under the
NRSA program appeared in its 1979 report. Cost estimates for the
recommended program, also published in that report, were based on the new
stipend levels that went into effect on July 1, 1980, and the additional
assumption that stipends and other program costs would continue to
increase by 5 percent per year. However, according to the most recent
information from NIH, there are no plans to increase stipend levels
beyond the July 1, 1980, schedule. Thus our previous cost estimates must
be revised downward. Table 1.5 below shows the revised estimates for the
NRSA programs using the current training recommendations under the
following assumptions:
(1) stipends will remain at the levels published in the new
schedule effective July 1, 1980;
tuition will increase by 5 percent per year; and
institutional allowances will be limited to $3,000 for
predoctoral trainees and $5,000 for postdoctoral trainees.
21
OCR for page 22
TABLE 1.5 Estimated Cost of Recommended NIH/ADA~HA/HRA ['raining Programs for
FY 1982-85 (millions of dollars3a
TOTAL Health
Fiscal Type of ALL Biomedical Behavioral Clinical Services Nursing
Year Program FIELDS Sciences Sciences Sciencesb Research Research
1982 TOTAL 218.9 123.4 22.0 64.1 S.4 4~0
Trainees 141.4 61.5 18.4 5S.6 4.2 1.7
Fellows 77.5 61.9 3.6 8.5 1.2 2.3
Predoc. 77.3 61.5 8.1 2.2 2.4 3. ~
Postdoc 141.6 61.9 13.9 61.9 3.0 0.9
. . .
1983 TOTAL 223.2 125.8 23.6 64.3 5.4 4.1
Trainees 144.6 63.1 19.7 55.8 4.2 1.7
Fellows 78.6 62.7 3.9 8~5 1.2 2.4
Predoc. 78.4 63.1 7.4 2.3 2.4 3.2
Postdoc. 144.8 62. 7 16.2 62.0 3.0 as
1984 TOTAL 226.9 127.7 25.1 64.4 5.5 4.2
Trainees 147.9 64.9 21.0 55.9 4.3 1.8
Fellows 79.0 62.8 4.1 8.5 1.2 2.4
Predoc. 79.6 64.9 6.6 2~4 2.5 3.3
Postdoc. 147.3 62.8 18.5 62.0 3.0 0.9
1985 TOTAL 230.0 129.0 26.7 64.5 5.5 4.3
Trainees 150.8 66.2 22.5 56.0 4.3 1.8
Fellows 79.2 62.8 4.2 8.5 1.2 2.5
Predoc. 80.3 66.2 5.9 2.4 2.5 3.4
Pos~doc. 149. 7 62.8 20.8 62.1 3.0 as
aCalculations were based on 1980 average cost figures derived from NIH data and assume no increase in stipends, but
include a 5~O per year increase in tuition.
bEstimate includes 1,000 predoctoral trainees in the short-term training program.
ESTIMATED TRAINING COSTS PER AWARD IN FY 1980 (dollars)
Predoctoral
Postdoctoral
Behav- Health Behav- Heals
Biomed. ioral Clinical Services Nursing Biomed. ioral Clinical Services Nursing
FY 1980 Sci. Sci. Sci. Research Research Sci. Sci. Sci Research Research
Trainees 11,570 12,850 2,140 11,570 11,570 21,440 22,580 22,200 21,440 21,440
Fellows 11,570 12,850 - 11,570 11,570 18,900 19,130 20,960 18,900 18,900
22
Representative terms from entire chapter:
research research research
