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4. BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES This past year the Committee and its Panel on Behavioral Sciences have examined current data on the supply and market for Ph.D.'s in the behavioral sciences, investigated future needs for the training of persons with particular areas of specialty, evaluated agency programs for the support of persons in training in these fields, and reviewed recommendations of prior years in light of the findings from these analyses. Because attempts are being made this year by some parts of the federal government to formulate a distinction between behavioral and social science, a distinction which the Committee believes to be without foundation, the Committee also addresses this issue. In addition, the Panel held two conferences on problems related to training in behavior and health and the recruitment of clinicians for mental health research. The proceedings of the workshop on establishing training programs in behavior and health, held in January 1980, was published this year (NRC, 1981b). The program of the symposium on the recruitment of clinicians for mental health research, held in June 1980, is contained in Appendix B3. TE113 TRAINING OF BEHAVIORAL SCIENTISTS The description in Chapter 3 of the training of basic biomedical scientists is also a description of the training of those behavioral scientists whose orientations are strongly biological. The patterns of training for behavioral scientists are even more varied than those for the biological sc dentists, however, for the f ields are more diverse in content and in methodologies, and the career objectives of persons earning higher degrees in the behavioral sciences include not only health-related purposes, but a wide variety of others, f ram studies that involve substantial historical and documentary analyses, to those that involve highly mathematical and analytical processes. The domains of the social and behavioral sciences include economics, political science, psychology, sociology, anthropology, and certain portions of geography, history, speech and hearing sciences, and linguistics. In addition, certain professions use a large component of the methodologies of the behavioral sciences. These include such f ields as nursing, business, law, and journalism. For operational purposes, the Committee continues to def ine the behavioral sciences as psychology, anthropology, sac iology, and speech and hearing so fences because these are the f ields most closely involved in investigating health problems. 1 The preparation of adequate numbers of persons with doctoral degrees in the behavioral sciences for the resolution of health problems and for an understanding of the most appropriate ways to deliver health care services has required a substantial augmentation of resources in the behavioral sciences during the past 30 years. This growth has been accompanied by more and more support from health agencies, especially as the importance of the voluntary activities of the patients has become more and more apparent to health practitioners. In addition, the field of psychology has become more health oriented, with the clinical psychologists, in particular, making significant contributions in the mental health area. 82

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Young persons who contemplate entering the behavioral sciences make their decisions about entry at a somewhat later time in their life than do persons who plan to enter medicine. To young students, the behavioral sciences are less apparent than medicine as occupations that could be attractive to them and in which they could play an appropriate role. While television has more recently given attention to such occupations as clinical psychology, young students very frequently find little to help discriminate this field from other health fields. As young persons enter college, the study of some of the behavioral sciences gives evidence that people are making contributions to society in these domains. They also see rewarding career opportunities in f ields that draw upon the behavioral sciences, such as business and law. As students study these fields, many of them are attracted to them as lifetime occupations. Some of the ablest of these become research contributors in the various fields. Undergraduate education in the behavioral sciences must include a broad background of work in a number of disciplines in order for graduate study to be effective. Many undergraduate students do not recognize this and must augment their work at the graduate level with additional work in biology, mathematics and statistics, computer science, or in such fundamental areas as philosophy, chemistry and biochemistry, or history. Thus, the graduate educational programs of such students are more varied in content than one would expect for persons who would presumably have decided upon an area of specialization upon entry into graduate work. The variety of career options available to persons in the behavioral sciences is also accompanied by a great variety of possibilities for student support in graduate schools of arts and sciences. Since most behavioral science departments are in academic units that have large teaching responsibilities for undergraduates, the most common form of support for graduate students is as teaching assistants. Some graduate students, particularly in the later years of study, become employed on research projects as research assistants. Others are awarded traineeships and fellowships under federal programs. In the behavioral sciences, traineeships and fellowships support only a small proportion of graduate students. Even in psyabology, where traineeships and fellowships exist in somewhat larger numbers, these awards still support less than 15 percent of the students in doctoral departments. Accordingly, modest variations in the amount of traineeship and f ellowship support seem to have little ef f eat on Pb. D . product ion. As of 1978, NRSA awards alone supported only 1,160 {or 3 percent) of the 36, 500 full-time graduate students in the behavioral sciences. It should be noted that NRSA awards may be utilized only for the purpose of research, and not clinical, training. Reviews of the use of the training g rant mechanism in various institutions have indicated its great value in strengthening a department and improving the options for support in a way that makes possible a substantial improvement in the planning of graduate programs for students entering the health fields. While the evidence of need for large numbers of suab persons to be supported is not as convincing today as it was in earlier times, it is clear that a department that loses support in the form of a training grant encounters serious difficulties in developing the appropriate educational programs for those students who plan health careers. Those departments that have experienced diminished support through training grants, or who have lost them 83

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entirely, report a diminished quality of training programs provided for persons entering the health fields (1978 Report, pp. 68-69~. The proportion of graduate students planning to enter health f ields varies from department to department and field to field. The largest single g roup of such persons are the clinical psycholog ists. The training grants for them have, in the past, supported preparation for clinical activity or for research activity. If clinical training grants ~ranisb, the importance of the research training grant will perforce increase. The department that wishes to provide an excellent program of training for a doctoral candidate who intends to enter a bealth-related part of the behavioral sciences has ~ cliff icult task without outside help. The training program must incorporate not only the essential components of the discipline that provides an adequate base for a research career, but also programs outside the department and in health settings in order to relate the basic graduate education to the needs of those settings. If the program does not include such components, the individual is less likely to make an important contribution to health research and is more likely either to engage in routine and easily generated research or else to choose a career in a clinical or applied setting and undertake little or no research. The Ph.D. in the behavioral sciences who is able to apply the methods and the theoretical bases of the behavioral sciences to the problems faced in the health care system is a valued member of a health research team. The need for a more comprehensive educational backs round for the behavioral science investigator in the health f ields is so great that the Committee has emphasized the postdoctoral program for health fields as the essential ing redient for developing the cadre of experienced and versatile investigators that will be required in the f uture. The Committee has been willing, while acknowledg ing that some colleagues hold a contrary view, to sacrif ice overall numbers in order to assure that the OCR for page 82
these patterns. It is important to keep in mind, however, that there are subf ields, especially within the nonclinical sciences, that vary substantially with respect to the relationship between supply and job opportunities within them. Data are not available to permit a f iner f ield analysis. Care should be taken, therefore, not to assume that all subf ields are experiencing the same market conditions. Current Indicators Beginning with its 1978 Report, the Committee has differentiated between clinical and nonclinical behavioral so fence in its analysis of market conditions. Data gathered to aid in the assessment of national needs for behavioral scientists have provided increasing evidence of the diverse patterns of employment, enrollments, and Ph.D. production in these segments. The clinical segment, composed of clinical os~rcholoa~, counseling and guidance, and educational psychology, . a. . _ _ ~ ~ ~ _ ~ ~ _ _ ~ . ~ ~ is heavi ly oriented ~:owaras nonacademic employment and is currently enjoying a rather strong market for the services of this group of Ph.D. Is (Figure 4.1) . On the other hand, the nonclinical segment, composed of nonclinical psychology, anthropology, sociology, and speech and hearing sciences is heavily dependent on academic employment and consequently is facing a weakening demand brought on largely bar the prospect of reduced faculty needs in the f ace of declining enrollments. 14 ~ 12 Q I 10 o 8 z z Or ~ 4 UJ > a: 2 _ 7.8 5.4 11.1 TOTAL BEHAVIORAL Total O Academic Nonacademic 6.0 5.5 7.3 10.6 - NONCLINICAL CLINICAL FIGURE 4.1 Average annual growth in behavioral science labor force by broad field and employment sector, 1973-79. See Table 4.2. 85

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Unemployment remains low for both nonclinical and clinical fields I Table 4.1 and Table 4. 2, lines 3h and 3p) . The percent still seeking jobs at graduation (the "SEEKS variable) is also similar for both behavioral f ields (Table 4. 1~; however, it has increased over the course TABLE 4.1 Employment Situations for Recent Ph.D. Recipients in the Behavioral Sciences 1977-79 PhD.'s 1978 Ph.D.'s _ _ _ Percent Unemployed Percent Still Seeing Ratio of Job Field of Doctorate in 1979a Job at Graduation b Offers to InquinesC Total Behavioral Sciences 2~0 13.9 .095 Clinical Fields 1.1 15.0 .169 Nonclinical Fields--Total 2~6 135 .069 NoncEnical Psychology 2~7 12~9 .070 Anthropology 0.9 16.2 .049 Sociology 3.8 13.4 .077 Over Sciences and Eng~neenug 1.0 8.3 .115 Percent of the 1978 PhD. recipients active in Me labor force who were unemployed and seeldug portions. bPercent of 1977-79 POD. recipients who were still seeldng employment positions at the tone hey had completed requirements for their doctorates. CRatio of the total job offers received (excluding postdoctoral appointments) to the total number of inquires made by 1978 Ph.D. recipients SOURCE: National Research Council (1958~80, 1979b). Of the 1970's (Table 4.2, lines lb and le.) and is higher than in other science and engineering fields (Table 4.1). Other market indicators demonstrate considerable differences in labor market conditions between nonclinical and clinical fields. When looking at the ratio of job offers received to job inquiries made by 1978 Ph.D.'s, one sees that there was only 1 offer per 14 inquiries in the nonclinical f ields (which is below the average for other sciences and engineering) compared to 1 offer per 6 inquiries in the clinical f ields (which is well above the average for other f ields) (Table 4 .1) . These cliff erences are rein- forced by other market indicators, including employment, enroll- ments, Ph.D. production, f ield switching, and researab activity, which follow. Nonc linical Behavioral F. ields G . . More than 75 percent of the nonclinical behavioral scientists were employed in academia in 1979 (Table 4. 2, line 3b) . While academic employment for this group increased by about 1, 000 or 2. 3 percent annual rate over the 1977 level, the growth rate in academic employment has slowed perceptibly in the last half of the 1970 decade. No strong trend toward nonacademic employment by nonclinical behavioral scientists is apparent. Estimated undergraduate enrollments increased in 1976, but dropped in 1977, the latest year for which we can provide under- graduate enrollment estimates, to below the 1973 levels ~ line 4a). First-year graduate enrollments in nonclinical behavioral science f ields dropped sharply in 1977 ~ line 4c) . Total graduate enrollments also declined ~ line 4e) . 86

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~ - TABLE 4.2 Curt Trends In Supply~nd Indicators for Behavioral Slice PhD.~sa _ . _ Anti A~ - . Growth Rate n" Q~c Mom 1973 L~tc~t mom 1973 to Latest Dual to latest 1973 197S 1976 1977 1978 1979 Year CALF Year . . _ 1. sumY INDICATORS (New Emu): Nonclinical fields: thD. production, 2,4841 2,793 2,897 2,89S 2,7;4S 2,738 1.6% ~03% 42 % of END.'' - Rout Pacific employment projects at Deduction 8.9% 11.0% 13.0X 12.8% 13.8% 13.2% 6.8% 4.3% 0.72% c. Po~ttoct~l sppts.C 384 51S N/A 644 N/A 816 13.4% 12.6% 72 fiscal Ileld~: d. EhD. protuctionb 1,OSS 1,14S 1,293 1,3S3 1,46S 1,497 6.0% 2.2% 74 o. % of PhD.'~ without ~pc~c omploymcst p~pe~ at ~dustion 11.1% 13.6% 13.7% 1S.0% 1S.4% 14.8% 4.9% -3.9% 0.62% f. ~ttoctoral appuc 105 247 NlA 379 N/A 301 19.2% _1Qg% 33 2. DEMAND ~DlCATORS: a Bd~moral ~ciences R "d D cxp~diturcs In college~ "d un~vcratics (1972 S. miL) S128.0 S116.8 S106.7 S103.0 S102 S N/A -4.3% ~S% S~S.1 3. I^BOR FORCE:` IhD.'~ employed in non~cal behenor~ Seldls: L Total 19,833 23,732 N/A 26,670 N/A 28,0SS 6.0% 2.6% 1,370 b. Acedemic (e%cL po~tdocs.) lS,2S9 18,433 N/A 20,118 N/A 21,072 S.S% 2.3% 969 c. Bu~c~s 960 1,212 NIA 1,387 N/A 1,498 7.7% 3.9% 90 d. Govcrnmcnt 1,006 1,289 N/A 1,6S1 N/A 1,603 8.1% -1 S% 99 e. Nomprofit 1,081 1,271 N/A 1,340 N/A 1,S12 S.8% 6.2% 72 Self~employed 372 460 N/A SO1 N/A 4SS 3.4% 4.7% 14 ~ Otber (incl. po~tdoc~) 871 699 N/A 1,02S N/A 1,32S 7.2% 13.7% 7S h Unemployed ~d KCICiDg 284 368 NlA 648 NlA S90 13.0% .6% S1 ~D.'s employed m cinical babanoral fields: ~ Tota1 ll,S36 14,760 N/A 17,SS7 N/A 21,072 10.6% 9.6% 1,S89 ]. Acatemic (e%bL postdoc~) 4,280 S,064 N/A S,432 N/A S,770 S.1% 3.199 248 1~ Bu~ea S1 169 N/A 412 N/A "6 43.S% 4.(1% 66 L Govc~mcat 1,llS 1,222 N/A 1,40S N/A 1,768 8.0% 12.2% 109 m. Nomprolit 3,3S4 4,7S9 N/A S,SS9 N/A 6,SS3 11.896 8.6% S33 a. Self~employed 1,S01 2,263 N/A 3,142 N/A 4,746 21.2% 22.9% Sd1 o. Other ('DcL postdocs) 1,132 1,218 N/A 1,S28 N/A 1,688 6.9% S.1% 93 p. Unetoployed "t soel~g 103 6S NlA 79 N/A 101 ~0.3X 13.1% -1 4. BEHA~O"LSaENCE/`OL=~: a Est. undergr~tuste 69S,C14 668,097 671,847 634,631 N/A N/A -2.3% -S-S95 -1S,246 b. F=t-year gredusteC 26,269 29,376 31,S4S 29,778 N/A NtA 3.2X -S.6% 877 c. est. nonclinical 19,744 21,S61 22,677 21,043 N/A N/A 1.6% -72% 32S ~ on. cli~cal 6,S2S 7,81S 8,868 8,73S NlA N/A 7.6% -1 S% SS2 o. Totat ~tuatof 48,216 SS,383 S9,0S6 S8,289 N/A N/A 4.9% -1.3% 2,S18 f. est. nonc~l 36,081 ~O,S" 42,13S 41,106 N/A N/A 3.3% -2.4% 1,2S6 o~t. "ical 12,13S 14,839 16,921 17,183 NlA N/A 9.1% 1 S% 1,262 ~In tbis table cl~ical behmoml field~ iDclude clinical and school p~ychology, coun~ding, ~nd guidenec; Donclinicet bdlanoral falds include ~thropolo=, ~oootogy, nooc~ical prychology, ~d ~poech ~d heanng scicnecs. bFor~ "tionals who r~d their doctoratc~ from U.S. u~venitics ue included. csincc labor fo~cc dat are Dot anilabte for 1978,1~t umual chu~e reprcrcnt~ average u~nus1 growth rate *om 1977-1979. Fore~ DBtiolU]S ~rho ~eceived their doctorates from U.S. unmrsitice ue iDduded. dE~ted by the fonnule Ui ~ (Ai.~2/B`. 2)Ci, erhere Ui ~ babevioral mence under~duste earoD'nents in year i; Ai+2 ' behanoal ~dence B^. degrees a~rded in "r i+2; Bi+2 ~ to~ B^. depoc~ e~rded iD yoar {+2; Ci - total undergreduste enrollments in year i. ~Fint-year ~dustc earo1~ents iD cl~ic~l behavioral fieldr are atimated by the fonnule OGli ~ (QJI-P)i+2Elp where CGli ~ f~t-yeu c~ical "duste enrolhnents h yeu i; (QIIT)i.~2 "tio of ~nlal prychology Ph.D.' to total prychology ~D.'~ amrded in year H2; Eli ~ ~t-yeu "duste earollments in psyd~ology in year i. JTotal ~d~te amollmcsts is ~linical beheH - al field' are ~ma~ by ~e fonnub =;i ~ (Q~)h2 Ei, ~here CCi ~ c~c~ "duste au~ents in yc" i; (Q/TP)h2 ~ ndo of chnictl p~rchology ~D." to to~ p~chology ~hD." a~rted in year i+2; Ei ~ psyd~ology ~d~te earollnents in year SOURCES: NRC (19S8~80, 1973~0), NSF (197S-79), U.S. Dqnsln~nt of Etucedon (1948 81, 19S9-79, 1973~77, 1974~80). 87

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Behavioral so fence R and D expenditures at colleges and universities have been steadily declining at 4 percent per year in constant dollars since 1972 ~ line 2a) . Ph.D. production in nonclinical behavioral science f ields appears to have reached a peak in 1976 at about 2,900. Since then it has been declining slowly. The 1979 level was down 0.3 percent f rom 1978. On the other hand, postdoctoral appointments in these f ields continue to grow rapidly. In 1979 there were 816 individuals on such appointments, up 33 percent f ram the 19 77 level ~ line lb) . Clinical Behavioral Fields l Perceptions of better career opportunities in the clinical behavioral f ields have attracted people f ram other areas. There has been a def inite shif t in the make-up of the behavioral so fence Ph.D. labor force during the 1970' s towards employment in clinical f ields and away from the nonclinical f ields. In 1979, 43 percent of the behavioral sc fence Ph. D. labor force was employed in clinical fields, up from 37 percent in 1973 {Table 4. 2, lines 3a and 3 i) . . In contrast to the nonclinical behavioral sciences, most clinical behavioral sc dentists are employed in the nonacademic sector. More than 72 percent of Pb.D. 's employed in clinical fields were employed in the nonacademic sector in 1979 and many of them were self-employed or employed by nonprof it organizations ~ lines 3m and an). Employment of clinical behavioral scientists in the business sector has also grown quite rapidly during the 1970' s ~ line 3k) . First-year graduate enrollments in the clinical behavioral sc fences were down slightly in 1977 but total graduate enrollments continued their long string of annual increases that began in 1968 ~ line 4d) . Ph.D. production in the clinical behavioral f ields continued to increase, reaching about 1, 500 in 1979 ~ line lo) . Despite this inc. rease, the number that were unemployed in 19 79 was about the same as in 1973. Postdoctoral appointments dropped to about 300 from their 1977 peak of 379 (line ld). Field Switching Field switching is a useful indicator of the relative health of a f ield. High mobility into a f ield f ram other f ields usually indicates demand in excess of supply ~ shortage), while the converse conditions indicate a surplus of personnel in the f ield. A National Research Council study of postdoctorate in science and engineering (NBC, 1981a) collected data on the net mobility into behavioral science f ields for 1972 and 1978 Pb.~. 's. Net mobility was defined as the difference between the number of doctorates employed in a f ield and the number of doctorates in that f ield, expressed as a percentage of the number of doctorates in that field. Table 4.3 indicates a clear trend in mobility between 1972 and 1978 Ph.D. 's, with clinical fields showing a positive and increasing inflow while the nonclinical sciences show an increasing outf low. 88

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TABLE 4.3 Net Field Switching by 1972 and 1978 Ph.D. Recipients in Me Behavioral Sciences Field of Doctorate Net Mobility into Me Fielda 1972 PhD.'s 1978 l~h.D.'s Total Behavioral Sciences -16.2 -16.9 Clinical Fields +12.0 +16.1 Nonclinical FieldsTotal -29.4 -36.8 N o n ~ I i n i c a 1 P s y c ~ h o l o g y - 3 2 ~ 5 - 3 1 . 7 Anthropology -40.7 _45.4 Sociology -1 1.8 -44.7 aDifference between the number of doctorates employed in a field and the number with doctorates in that field, as a percentage of the number Off doctorates in mat field. SOURCE: Radon Research Council (1979b). Figure 4. 2 demonstrates that the clinical behavioral f ields retain a high percentage of their Ph.D. 's (85.4 percent) with only 7.2 percent of clinical Pb.D. 's going to nonclinical behavioral fields and the remainder going to other sciences and consciences. In contrast, only 57.0 percent of nonclinical behavioral Ph.~. ' s remained in their f ields for employment, with over 14 percent going into each of clinical behavioral f ields, other sciences, and consciences. The largest switch occurred in nonclinical psychology where 23.0 percent of the Ph.D. IS are employed in clinical be- haviora1 jobs (see Appendix Table Ale). It is likely that many of those switching to clinical f ields are leaving research in the process as noted in the following section. Percent Nonclinical Behavioral Science Ph.D.'s Employed in: Non- sciences Sciences _414.3% ~ 7.4% \ Other ~ Social . 7.2X ; Nonclinical Sciences ~ / Behavioral \ 14.1% / Sciences / >< / Clinical ~ \ / Behavioral Sciences 57.0% Other &ionces (1296) Percent Clinical Behavioral Science Ph.D.'s Employed in: Nonclinical Behavioral Scis=es \ N on sciences :: 85.4% \ Clinical \ Behavioral / - _ Sciences ~ FIGURE 4.2 Employment field of 1972-78 behavioral science Ph.D.'s in 1979 by field of training. See Appendix Table A10. 89

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Research Activity While the employment situation in the clinical behavioral f ields appears more favorable than that in nonclinical behavioral f ields, it is clear that nonclinical scientists are much more heavily involved in research in 1979 than their clinical counter- parts (Table 4. 4) . Nonclinical scientists spent an average of 30 percent of their time in research compared to 13 percent of clinical scientists' time. The differences are most striking when examining employment sector. Clinical behavioral so dentists in academia spend a much higher portion of their time in research ~ 21 percent) than those in nonacademic settings ~ 9 percent) . On the other hand, for nonclinical Ph.~. 's, almost as much time is spent in research in nonacademic employment ~ 28 percent) as in academia ~ 32 percent) . These data indicate that nonclinical behavioral scientists continue to utilize their research skills in a variety of research settings. TABLE 4.4 Average Tune Spent in Research in 1979 by 1972 Behavioral Science Ph.D.'s by Sector of Employment Behavioral Sciences All Employment Sector Total Clinical Nonclinical Sciences All Sectors . N 2,757 876 1,881 15,168 Avg.Timein Research (%) 25 13 30 36 Academic N 1,626 281 1,345 8,215 A~g. Tune in Research (DO) 30 21 32 34 Nonacademic N 1,097 595 502 6,795 Avg. Time in Research (I) 18 9 28 ~ - 39 Unknown N 34 0 34 158 Avg. Time in Research (A 21 21 9 SOURCE: Nadon~1 Research Council (19?9b). Utilization Of Postdoctoral Training The Committee and its Panel on Behavioral Sciences have consistently taken the position that the behavioral so fences should moire toward more active use of postdoctoral training so that beginning scientists might obtain a higher level of research skills 90

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and knowledge acquisition. The underlying argument is that the f ield of behavior and health has reached a level of sophistication that increasingly requires training beyond the predoctoral level. This argument was reinforced in a workshop on training in behavior and health sponsored by the Panel in January 1980 (NRC, 1981b), in which the conferees concluded that postdoctoral training was an important device for gaining needed knowledge and research skills. The Committee and Panel have sought to monitor recent developments in the utilization of postdoctorals in the behavioral sciences. The size of the postdoctoral pool has risen f rom about 500 in 1973 to 1,100 in 1979, an average annual growth of almost 15 percent ~ see Table 4. 2) . Of course, the increase has taken place f rom a very small base. An NRC study {NRC, 1981a, p. 77) estimated that in 1979 postdoctorals in psychology comprised only 3 percent of doctoral scientists in this f ield in academia. Growth in postdoctorals has occurred most consistently in the nonclinical f ields (13 percent annually) while the clinical sciences have experienced a decrease in the latest period { 1977-1979) after an earlier rapid growth (Table 4. 2) . One of the most important outcomes of postdoctoral training is expected to be increased research activity. While postdoctoral training in ache behavioral sciences is still in its incipient stages, with benef icial results largely in the future, it is encourag ing to note that avai fable data indicate that those who have taken postdoctoral appointments spend a considerable portion of their employment time in research. Once again using data f rom the recent NRC study of postdoctorate (Table 4. S), one can see that 1972 behavioral science Ph.D. 's who had postdoctoral experience spent signif icantly more time in research in 1979 ~ 38 percent) than those who did not (22 percent). The effect was most pronounced in the clinical f ields where postdoctoral experience resulted in a more than doubling of time spent in research ~ 25 percent compared to 12 percent for those without) . In the none lexical behavioral so fences those with postdoctoral experience spent 42 percent of their time in research compared to 28 percent of those who did not. The only exception to this pattern is sociology, where those without postdoctoral training spent more time in research ~ 33 percent) than those with it (24 percent); however, only 10 percent of sociology Ph.D. 's take postdoctorals (NRC, 1981a, p. 112) . TABLE 4.5 Average Time Spent in Research in 1979 by 1972 Behavioral Science Ph.D.'s by Postdoctoral Expenence With Postdoctoral Total Expenence Field of Postdoctoral N ~0 N To Without Postdate total Expenence N % Total Behavioral 2,757 25 464 38 2,293 22 Clinical 876 13 100 25 776 12 Nonclinical--Total - 1,881 30 364 42 1,517 28 Nonclinical Psychology 1,206 30 248 48 958 26 Sociology 355 32 45 24 310 33 Anthropology 320 30 71 33 249 29 SOURCE: National Research Council (1979b). 91

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Projections Through FY 1985 The next step in the analysis Is to attempt some short-tenm projections of the market so that appropriate recommendations for current training programs can be based on best estimates of future needs. So far it has not been possible to demonstrate that a direct relationship exists between academic demand for behavioral Ph.~. 's and some measure of research activity, such as behavioral science R and D expenditures in colleges and universities. Although the latter have fallen more than 20 percent from their peak in 1972 (Figure 4.3), the faculty-student ratio, i.e., the ratio of behavioral science Ph.D. faculty to total behavioral science enrollment in colleges and universities (F/S) has continued to rise.2 Why this is so, and whether this ratio will continue to increase, remain open questions. As a result, the projection methodology in the behavioral sciences relies simply on the Committee's assumptions about future trends in enrollments and the F/S ratio. ~ . The Committee's projections of academic demand for behavioral science Ph.D.'s are based on the following three assumptions about the behavioral science F/S ratio: (a) that the F/S ratio will continue to increase significantly through 1985, but at a slower rate of growth than that which has occurred since 1972; (b) that the F/S ratio will increase moderately through 1985; and c) that the F/S _. ratio will decline from its present (197.7) value of 0.037 to 0.035 in 198 5. Behavioral science graduate and undergraduate enrollments have fluctuated in a narrow range after reaching a peak in 1972. But the latest estimates for 1977 show a sharp drop. For these enrollments, a similar set of assumptions has been made: (a) that behavioral enrollments will increase moderately through 1985, (b) that behavioral enrollments will remain essentially at the 1977 level of about 700,000 through 1985, and {c) that enrollments will decline to about 600,000 students by 1985. As usual, it is hoped that these assumptions represent upper and lower bounds on the future pattern of these two variables and that the middle assumption represents the most likely case. The resulting projections of academic demand for behavioral science Ph.D.'s {both clinical and nonclinical) are shown in Table 4.6. Under the most optimistic set of assumptions, behavioral science Pb.D. faculty would expand at 2.4 percent per year through 1985--a level that would just about preserve the current supply/demand balance in the-system. In the worst case, behavioral science faculty would contract by more than 2 percent per year. In the most likely case, about 1,260 behavioral Ph.D. faculty positions would be created each year through 1985 due to expansion and attrition of faculty under these assumptions. But since an estimated 2,2603 behavioral Ph.D.'s per year have found academic employment during the period 1973 to 1979, the projections suggest a considerably slower rate of growth in the academic sector in the next few years. This conclusion clearly reinforces the Committee's recommendation to shift the emphasis in the training programs from predoctoral to postdoctoral support. By so doing, the NRSA programs would preserve the important contributions that postdoctoral appointees make to academic research while at the same time assist 92

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TABLE 4.6 Projected Growth in Behavioral Science IPn.D. Faculty, 1978~5, Based on Projections of Enrollment and Faculty/Student Ratiosa Assumptions about the Faculty/Student Ratio for Behavioral Ph.D.' in Colleges and Universities . I II III Assumptions about Behavioral Will continue to Increases Declines Science Undergraduate and grow, reaching Lightly to to 0.03S Graduate Enrollment 0.0385 by 198S 0.0375 by 1985 by 198S A. WB1 continue to grow, Expected "e of behavioral reaching 800,000 science faculty (F) in 1985 30,800 30,000- 28,000 students by 1983 Annual Down rate in F from 1978 to 1985 2.4% 2.0~o 1.1% Average annual increment due to faculty expansion 660 S60 310 Annual replacement needs due to: b death and retirement 280 280 270 other attrition 990 970 940 Expected number of academic positions to become available annually for behavioral PhD.'s 1,930 1,750 1,520 B. Win remain at about the Expected me of behavioral 1977 level (700,000) science faculty (F) in 1985 26,950 26,250 24,500 through 1985 Annual growth rate in F from 1978 to 1985 0.7% 0.3~o -O.S% Average annual increment due to faculty expansion 180 90 -130 Annual replacement needs due to: b death and retirement 260 260 250 other attrition 930 910 870 Expected number of academic positions to become available annually for behavioral PhD.'s 1,370 1,260 990 C. Will decline Expected size of behavioral to 600,000 students science faculty (P) In 1985 23,100 22,S00 21,000 by 1985 Annual growth rate in F from 1978 to 1985 -1.3~o -1.6% -2.8% Average annual increment due to faculty expansion -310 -380 -570 Annual replacement needs due to: b death and retirement 240 240 230 other attrition 850 840 810 .? Expected number of academic positions to become available annually for behavioral P~D.'s 780 700 470 . ab acuity is defined in this table as all academically employed ~D.'s, excluding postdoctoral appointees Based on an estimated replacement rate of l.O~o annually due to death and retirement and 3.5~o annually due to other attrition. These estimates were domed from NRC (1973~80). 94 l

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their training in problem areas that are vital to the research programs sponsored by the federal government. Of course there is the possibility that the nonacademic sector will expand rapidly enough to absorb all behavioral scientists, even at the current rate of Ph.D. production. At least the clinical behavioral scientists currently seem to be finding ample opportunities in the nonacademic sector, but it is not likely that these are research oriented positions. It should also be noted that making precise estimates of the state of the market in the clinical sciences is difficult, the more so because a substantial percentage are engaged in private practice. It is impossible to predict how long this source of employment will continue to increase and bow long it will be available to nonclinical Ph.D.'s seeking to switch fields. In addition, the impact on the labor market of the recent expansion of professional schools of psychology, which are unrelated to traditional academic programs, is difficult to predict. Using its most likely projections of academic demand, the Committee has attempted to estimate the appropriate size of the behavioral science postdoctoral pool needed under these circumstances. To do so requires certain information about the behavioral science employment and training system for which we have only approximate data. In some cases the Committee has used estimates that exceed past postdoctoral utilization in the behavioral sciences. This is because the Committee's intent has been to break with prior practice and encourage the extensive use of postdoctoral training where previously there was little. The Committee regards such increased estimates as necessary~and realistic. Using these best estimates we can provide some rough guidelines on the size of the postdoctoral pool needed under certain conditions. The Committee's recommendation for postdoctoral NRSA support to rise from 610 in FY 1982 to 910 in FY 1985 averages 760 annually and therefore f ails within the limits of our estimates of the need for average annual postdoctoral support, as shown in Table 4.7. Line 1 of Table 4.7 shows the expected annual demand for academic positions resulting from the Committee's most likely set of assumptions in Table 4.6. The attrition rates used here, derived from the National Research Council's biennial survey of Ph.D. employment (NRC, 1973-80), are 1 percent per year for death and retirement and 3.5% per year for other attrition. Line 2 shows the number of accessions needed with postdoctoral research training to satisfy expected demand if 25 percent and if 35 percent of all accessions have such training. Data from a study of postdoctorate (NRC, 1981a, p. 148) indicate that slightly under 20 percent of 1978 Ph.D.'s in the behavioral sciences took postdoctoral appointments in 1979. The Committee believes that this should increase so that at least 35 percent of each new cohort will have postdoctoral training. Line 3 shows the size of the postdoctoral pool needed assuming a 2-year training period on the average, and two assumptions about the academic yield from the pool. The 2-year postdoctoral training period for behavioral scientists is confirmed by other data from the same study of postdoctorate (NRC, 1981a, p. 326). The assumption about academic yield from the postdoctoral pool is an estimate based upon overall academic employment in the labor force (55 percent). 95

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TABLE 4.7 Estimated Number of Behavioral Science Postdoctoral Trainees Needed to Meet Expected Academic Demand Through 1985 Under Various Conditions Projected (1978-85) 1. Academic demand for behavioral science Ph.D.'s--annual average: a due to expansion of faculty b. due to death and retirement c. due to other attrition 2. Total accessionsC with postdoctoral research training--annual average: a if 25~o of accessions have postdoctoral research Raining b. if 35~O of accessions have postdoctoral research training 3. Size of behavioral science postdoctoral pool (1,117 in 1979) Size needed to meet demand assuming a 2-yr. training period and portion of trainees seeking academic positions is: a" 50% b. 60~o 4. Annual number of behavioral science postdoctoral trainees to be supported under NRSA programs (395 in 1979): a if 30~O of pool is supported under NRSA b. if 40% of pool is supported under NRSA cO if 50% of pool is supported under NRSA 1,260 90 260a 910b 320 440 1,280- 1,760 1,070- 1,470 320 - 530 420- 700 540- 880 aAssumes an attrition rate due to death and retirement of 1.0% per year. bAssumes an attrition rate due to other causes of 3.5%0 per year. CAccessions are defined as new hires or those who rejoin faculties from nonfaculty positions. Inter-faculty transfers are not counted as accessions. SOURCE: Table 4.6. Line 4 estimates the number of behavioral science postdoctoral appointees to be supported under NRSA programs be, applying percentages to the smallest and largest numbers in line 3. Currently 35 percent of the behavioral so fence postdoctoral pool is supported under NRSA. Because the Committee believes that federal policy should take the lead in encouraging greater use of the postdoctorals, a 50 percent level of NRSA support of the postdoctoral pool is also specif led. IMPLEMENTATION OF PRIOR ~=M=-14DATIONS The Committee's recommendations in the behavioral sciences over the last 6 years have remained consistent with respect to the numbers of trainees and fellows supported, the level of dollars expended, and the distribution of awards between predoctoral and postdoctoral levels. The core of the recommendation" has been, within a framework of a constant dollar level of support, to redistribute awards in the behavioral sciences from the traditional predoctoral emphasis (70 percent/30 percent 96

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predoctoral to postdoctoral} to one of postdoctoral emphasis ~ 70 percent/30 percent postdoctoral to predoctoral). The Committee recommended that this transition be completed by FY 1981. The rationale for this recommendation was that the less favorable labor market for behavioral scientists, especially in academia, dictates a decrease in predoctoral support, while the growing sophistication of behavioral research in the area of health warrants an increase in postdoctoral support. - Over the last 2 years the Committee has been concerned that the transition from a predominantly predoctoral program to one that ispredominantly postdoctoral has proceeded too slowly. Rather than an orderly transition, the ratio has moved slowly toward a higher postdoctoral concentration (34.9 percent in FY 1980) via a sharp decline in predoctoral awards (63 percent decrease since 1975) with a level of postdoctoral support that rose between 1975 and 1977 but has since remained basically constant (see Table 4.8 on p. 102). As a result of this concern, the Panel on Behavioral Sciences sent a letter to the ADAMHA Administrator inquiring about ADAMHA's policy with respect to implementing this change. The Administrator responded that his agency supported the Committee's recommendations and was making strong efforts to implement such a policy. The efforts made by ADAMHA included (1) giving priority to postdoctoral awards in their announce- ments, (2) funding most postdoctoral applications with good priority scores, and (3) encouraging applicants to emphasize postdoctoral training. An indication of the success of these efforts was that in FY 1980 the proportion of new and competing awards that were postdoctoral was 55 percent. - The Administrator reported, however, that significant external impediments have been imposed that have constrained ADAMHA's ability to respond more rapidly: Overall funds available for research training bave lost ground to inflation. ADAMHA's training funds rose only slightly in current dollars, from $19.4 million in FY 1976 to $20.0 million in FY 1980, a decline in real dollars of 23 percent. As a result of the mandated increase in stipend levels in FY 1980, the same amount of funds could support many fewe graduate students and postdoctorals. Although there has been progress in responding to the Committee's recommendations, the professional field has been slow in broadening its emphasis to include more post- doctoral training (due tithe break from past patterns of training) . This situation is improving over time. The result of these conditions has meant tbat ADAMHA has had little flexibility in the administration of its resources. Cutbacks have had to be made in both predoctoral training grants and fellowships. The loss of these funds and the recent increases in stipend levels has sharply reduced the agency's ability to finance new postdoctoral awards. Another factor inhibiting the transition is that certain programs targeted for minority groups and epidemiology training have priority for predoctoral support, and ADAMHA has exempted them from the switch to postdoctoral emphasis. - 97

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The Committee is cognizant of these constraints on the ability of ADAMHA to plan effectively and to implement a policy of emphasizing post- doctoral training. The Committee Is pleased that ADAMHA remains committed to effectuating this policy and appreciates its efforts to make progress in this direction. The Committee believes that a stabilization of federal support for research training (see Chapter 1) would restore to ADAMHA the means to implement this policy. A related issue of continuing concern to the Committee and Panel has been the support of behavioral science trainees by NIH. Trainee support data provided by NIH have shown a rapid decline in predoctoral trainees between FY 1975 and FY 1980 (from 587 to 105) and a slight increase in postdoctoral trainees (74 to 76) in that period. As a result, the percentage of postdoctoral trainees has increased greatly (from 11 percent to 42 percent) but almost wholly as a result of reductions in predoctoral trainees. In a letter to the NIH Director on January 21, 1981, the Panel requested clarification of NIH policy regarding the support of behavioral scientists. In particular, inquiry was made about the possibility that the actual number of behavioral science trainees supported by NIH was being masked by their classification under clinical research training programs. In response, reclassif ication by :NIH, based upon trainee f ield rather than f ield of training grant, demonstrated that in f act more behavioral so fence students are being trained; however, under either classif ication, the increase in the number of postdoctorals has been quite small. RECOMMENDATIONS Levels of Federal Funding for Research and Research Training The Committee has taken note of the likely reductions in federal funding for research in certain areas, and proposed reductions in funding for research training in the social sciences. If the federal government elects to reduce funding for research, the Committee believes that as a natural consequence it is fully appropriate for those areas of research related to health to be reduced in funding as well. It should be recognized, however, that any reduction in the overall level of federal funding in health research will probably reduce the number of persons who will be interested in electing careers in this area. The likelihood of a fulf tiling career in health research is an important ingredient in the choices made by young persons. Should there be public evidence of a reduction in interest in supporting work in this area, the consequences will be substantial, and for a considerable period of time irreversible. Should national policy for reduction of all federal funding lead to a proportionate reduction in overall federal funding for training grants, the Committee sees certain short-term disadvantages but fewer long-term disadvantages as long as cutbacks are not too severe. A reduction in funding for training grants would be painful In that many programs of very good quality would be able to attract and support a smaller number of students. However, if the training grant reduction still permits the funding of a suff icient number of institutions of high quality to ensure the continuance of the very best training programs, the Committee would see this as a not part icularly serious problem for the disciplines in the behavioral and social sciences. In addition, the Committee sees possible training budget reductions as a much more serious problem in those 98

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departments that are housed in medical schools, that have few alternative forms of support available for the very best of their students. The Committee has had a long-standing concern for the protection of high-quality training programs. Thus, it views with apprehension any prospect of reduc ing support in the behavioral and sac ial so fences to such an extent that high quality training programs would be impaired. These training programs are critical for the study of the behavioral aspects of the treatment of disease, aspects that have come more and more to the fore as being important to the appropriate treatment of a wide variety of diseases. In studies of the etiology of disease, the work in these domains has been among the most important. The Committee believes that a substantial number of very able persons should continue to be supported in the very best programs, especially at the postdoctoral level, to ensure continuance of this level of research effort during a time when careers in this area will be becoming less and less attractive to young people. Recommendation. While reductions in training support may . . be necessitated by overall budget constraints, it is impor- tant that some training support be preserved in the health- related behavioral and social sciences and that this support be directed to the highest quality programs. Behavioral Science Versus Social Science ADAMEA and other federal agencies have been directed to make a distinction between the behavioral sciences and the social sciences. The social sciences are to be reduced in funding or eliminated, but the behavioral sciences shall continue to get support. The Committee believes that this distinction is without merit, that any attempt to implement such a policy would have negative consequences. The Committee also believes that the decision to fund research in the behavioral and social sciences should be made by ADAMNA in the same way that it makes decisions about all of its areas of support. A proposal should be funded if it is of high quality and if it will produce effects directly related to the improvement of health care. Training grants should be funded if the programs frill produce persons who will make such a signif icant contribution to research, if the number of persons prepared in this area would be insuff icient were the training grant not in place, or if the quality of persons so trained would be inadequate for the tasks ahead were the training g rant not awarded . The Committee supposes that the distinction between the behavioral and social sc fences has been made on the erroneous assumption that sac ial scientists have supported the social programs of prior administrations, and that with reduction in those social programs, there is an obvious need to reduce the number of persons in sac ial sc fence. This assumption rests on a misapprehension. Social science and social activism are not the same. The research produced by persons with Ph.D. ' s in the behavioral and social science disciplines--psychology, sociology, and antbropology--has proven a valuable aid in understanding the ways in which human beings behave under varying conditions, including the effectiveness of social programs. This group of dedicated scientists is highly useful to society, and more persons like them need to be prepared in the next generation. In particular, our stock of behavioral and social scientists is essential to the development of solutions to important health problems in the f uture . 99

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The Committee believes that certain domains are not fully appropri- ate for funding by ADAMHA in teems of its agency mission. In the past the review of proposals from programs only marginally related to alcohol, drug abuse, and mental health has been in the main negative. It is expected that those reviews will continue to be negative. With a reduction in funds, the more traditional programs are likely to survive at the expense of innovative and experimental programs. This will be a short-term disadvantage to the field but not ruinous in terms of the maintenance of an adequate number of research personnel in the next generation. The Committee recommends that ADAMHA assure itself of the direct health relatedness of a proposal and of a training program, without concern for the vague and questionable distinction between behavioral so fence and social so fence. Recommendation. All f ields of the behavioral and social sciences continue to make valuable contributions to the solution of health problems. Beyond quality, the proper criterion for awarding behavioral and social science training g rants should remain the relevance of the applications to the solution of health problems that are the responsibility of NIH and ADAMHA. Predoctoral and Postdoctoral Awards Over the last 4 years, the Committee has consistently and firmly recommended a transformation of NRSA training support from a predoctoral to a postdoctoral emphasis. Its rationale has been a dual concern for a declining academic labor market, pointing toward reduced predoctoral support, and a need for an increased sophistication in research training, implying greater postdoctoral support. These conditions continue to exist at this time. Recent employment patterns and the employment outlook through 1985 described earlier in this chapter indicate continued problems in the employment of nonclinical behavioral scientists. At the same time, the growing complexity of research problems in behavioral and health argue strongly for the acquisition of more depth of training experience. The Committee thus sees the demand for more highly skilled researchers increasing at the same time that the overall demand for numbers of researchers remains soft. The Committee's recommendations over the years have been intended to help lead the way in responding to these new needs in employment and training. Rather than simply extrapolating from past practice, the Committee has sought to encourage the professional community to offer more extensive training through the provision of greater numbers of postdoctoral awards. The Committee's prior recommendations were based on maintaining a constant dollar training budget using FY 1975 as a baseline and a transformation of the traditional predoctoral training emphasis ~ 70 percent/30 percent predoctoral to postdoctoral) to a predominantly postdoctoral emphasis ~ 30 percent/70 percent predoctoral to postdoctoral). The Committee believes that its reexamination of the market and its new analysis of the demand f or postdoctorate sustain its p r for recommendat ions. 100

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Since these recommendations were f irst made, the agencies' implementation has been slowed because of budget constraints and the professional community's reluctance to depart from tradition and establish a postdoctoral training pathway. Even so' the size of the postdoctoral pool has increased at an average annual rate of almost 15 percent between 1973 and 1979, although the numbers remain small. The Committee believes that, if ADAMHA is given an adequate and stable budget, the rapid g rowtb in the postdoctoral pool can be continued and the quality of training strengthened. Originally, the Committee proposed that its recommendations be it lemented by FY 1981 (Table 4. 8) . Because of budget restrictions, however, this goal will clearly not be reached this year as proposed. The Committee therefore must reformulate its recommendations to allow for a phasing in through FY 1985, as indicated in the last section of Table 4.8. Budget reductions have led to cutbacks in predoctoral support that are rapidly approaching the Committee' s recommended level of 390. The task at hand is to increase substantially the level of postdoctoral support over the next 4 years. Recommendation. The Committee reef f irms its position that federal support for training in the behavioral sciences shift its emphasis from predoctoral to postdoctoral. A gradual phasing is recommended so that a level of 390 pre- doctorals and 910 postdoctorate will be supported annually by FY 1985. Training Grants and Fellowships In all its prior reports the Committee teas recommended the continuance of the training grant mechanism as a way of improving the quality of graduate education in the behavioral sciences at the predoctoral and postdoctoral levels. Today, the Committee sees even more clearly the need for the continuance of this program. The increasing uncertainty of behavioral and social science research funds, which support research assistants at the graduate level, and decreasing enrollments that will decrease the number of teaching assistants needed to teach undergraduates means that alternate sources of support for the ablest of the graduate students in the country will diminish sharply in the coming years. This has led the Committee to the belief that serious problems will arise in the future if training support is not continued. The training grant is the most effective training mechanism because it provides an opportunity for departmental planning and the optimal use of scarce departmental resources. In particular, the institutional support component provides an important supplementary source of f unds with which to structure a training program. This is especially important for health-related training in the behavioral sciences, which frequently lacks an institutional commitment within large behavioral science departments and in medical schools. The Committee is convinced that recent proposals for eliminating institutional support f rom training grants, if effected, would have an immediate detrimental impact on training quality and would reduce the value of the training grant substantially. 101

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cn c) O - et o ~ ~5 - c~ 3 ~S - et o C~ o _} U3 et _ et o - o :t - z ~: ._ es ~: o C) - - ._ C~ oo . oo C~ _ _ oo _ o' _ _ oo o~ _ o oo _ o~ _ oo C~ _ cr' _ ~D o' _ g o' ~: o q,) _ a' ~ E ~o o es ~ o o o o ~ _ o' o o o _ oo - o o o _ _ - o o o oo ~ _ _ ~ ~D - o o o o ~ _ _ c~ cr~ 0 o ~ ~ o' ~ _ o ~ ~ ~ ~ oo _ _ ~ o' ~ o _ _ _ oo o oo o o o ~ _ ~ ~ oo ~ _ _ _ ~ 0 ~ oo 0 C~ ~ ~ ~ 0 ~ _ _ _' _ o' ~ cr~ oo _ _ U' 0 0 0 ~o 0 ~ a~ ^ _ _1 ~ - 8 ~ U) _ o' _ _ _ o ~ o' - _ _ ~ o ~ ~ C~ o \ "' .a "V - ,~, o o _ C, o es o ~ o a-~= 102 ~: o ._ - ~: 8 ~ _ ~: ~ o ~ o - :C F" 6 :^ es o ._ 5 o 3 CO - o ~L o .~ o~ ~4 ~o - oo oo - t~ ~o 3 ~ .,. :, ~ o ~ 3 _ _

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The Committee continues to believe that some fellowship support ought to be made available in predoctoral areas where f ield work is necessary, e.g., anthropology, and in postdoctoral training areas that do not yet possess institutional training grants. Recommendation. The training grant should be the pre- dominant mechanism of support in the behavioral sciences with an 80 percent/20 percent traineeship to fellowship ratio. In addition, because of the importance of the institutional support component of the award in planning and administering health-related training programs in behavioral science departments, the Committee strongly endorses the continua- tion of the training grant mechanism. 103

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NOTES 1. While the f ield of psychiatry is closely related to the babavioral sciences, the responsibility for the measurement of market demand in this f ield teas been assigned to the clinical sciences. 2. The term of acuity. as used here includes those who are employed by an academic institution without faculty rank, such as research appointees. Postdoctoral appointees are excluded from this definition of faculty. The terms ~faculty. and ~academic. are used here interchangeably. 3. About 1,220 positions per year have been created by faculty expansion and another (estimated) 1, 040 have been created by attrition, assuming an attrition rate of 4. 5 percent per year (1. 0 percent due to retirement and 3. 5 percent due to other causes such as leaving the f ield) . 104