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4. BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES
This past year the Committee and its Panel on Behavioral Sciences
have examined current data on the supply and market for Ph.D.'s in the
behavioral sciences, investigated future needs for the training of
persons with particular areas of specialty, evaluated agency programs
for the support of persons in training in these fields, and reviewed
recommendations of prior years in light of the findings from these
analyses. Because attempts are being made this year by some parts of
the federal government to formulate a distinction between behavioral and
social science, a distinction which the Committee believes to be without
foundation, the Committee also addresses this issue. In addition, the
Panel held two conferences on problems related to training in behavior
and health and the recruitment of clinicians for mental health
research. The proceedings of the workshop on establishing training
programs in behavior and health, held in January 1980, was published
this year (NRC, 1981b). The program of the symposium on the recruitment
of clinicians for mental health research, held in June 1980, is
contained in Appendix B3.
TE113 TRAINING OF BEHAVIORAL SCIENTISTS
The description in Chapter 3 of the training of basic biomedical
scientists is also a description of the training of those behavioral
scientists whose orientations are strongly biological. The patterns of
training for behavioral scientists are even more varied than those for
the biological sc dentists, however, for the f ields are more diverse in
content and in methodologies, and the career objectives of persons
earning higher degrees in the behavioral sciences include not only
health-related purposes, but a wide variety of others, f ram studies that
involve substantial historical and documentary analyses, to those that
involve highly mathematical and analytical processes. The domains of
the social and behavioral sciences include economics, political science,
psychology, sociology, anthropology, and certain portions of geography,
history, speech and hearing sciences, and linguistics. In addition,
certain professions use a large component of the methodologies of the
behavioral sciences. These include such f ields as nursing, business,
law, and journalism. For operational purposes, the Committee continues
to def ine the behavioral sciences as psychology, anthropology,
sac iology, and speech and hearing so fences because these are the f ields
most closely involved in investigating health problems. 1
The preparation of adequate numbers of persons with doctoral
degrees in the behavioral sciences for the resolution of health problems
and for an understanding of the most appropriate ways to deliver health
care services has required a substantial augmentation of resources in
the behavioral sciences during the past 30 years. This growth has been
accompanied by more and more support from health agencies, especially as
the importance of the voluntary activities of the patients has become
more and more apparent to health practitioners. In addition, the field
of psychology has become more health oriented, with the clinical
psychologists, in particular, making significant contributions in the
mental health area.
82
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Young persons who contemplate entering the behavioral sciences make
their decisions about entry at a somewhat later time in their life than
do persons who plan to enter medicine. To young students, the
behavioral sciences are less apparent than medicine as occupations that
could be attractive to them and in which they could play an appropriate
role. While television has more recently given attention to such
occupations as clinical psychology, young students very frequently find
little to help discriminate this field from other health fields. As
young persons enter college, the study of some of the behavioral
sciences gives evidence that people are making contributions to society
in these domains. They also see rewarding career opportunities in
f ields that draw upon the behavioral sciences, such as business and
law. As students study these fields, many of them are attracted to them
as lifetime occupations. Some of the ablest of these become research
contributors in the various fields.
Undergraduate education in the behavioral sciences must include a
broad background of work in a number of disciplines in order for
graduate study to be effective. Many undergraduate students do not
recognize this and must augment their work at the graduate level with
additional work in biology, mathematics and statistics, computer
science, or in such fundamental areas as philosophy, chemistry and
biochemistry, or history. Thus, the graduate educational programs of
such students are more varied in content than one would expect for
persons who would presumably have decided upon an area of specialization
upon entry into graduate work.
The variety of career options available to persons in the behavioral
sciences is also accompanied by a great variety of possibilities for
student support in graduate schools of arts and sciences. Since most
behavioral science departments are in academic units that have large
teaching responsibilities for undergraduates, the most common form of
support for graduate students is as teaching assistants. Some graduate
students, particularly in the later years of study, become employed on
research projects as research assistants. Others are awarded
traineeships and fellowships under federal programs. In the behavioral
sciences, traineeships and fellowships support only a small proportion
of graduate students. Even in psyabology, where traineeships and
fellowships exist in somewhat larger numbers, these awards still support
less than 15 percent of the students in doctoral departments.
Accordingly, modest variations in the amount of traineeship and
f ellowship support seem to have little ef f eat on Pb. D . product ion. As
of 1978, NRSA awards alone supported only 1,160 {or 3 percent) of the
36, 500 full-time graduate students in the behavioral sciences. It
should be noted that NRSA awards may be utilized only for the purpose of
research, and not clinical, training.
Reviews of the use of the training g rant mechanism in various
institutions have indicated its great value in strengthening a
department and improving the options for support in a way that makes
possible a substantial improvement in the planning of graduate programs
for students entering the health fields. While the evidence of need for
large numbers of suab persons to be supported is not as convincing today
as it was in earlier times, it is clear that a department that loses
support in the form of a training grant encounters serious difficulties
in developing the appropriate educational programs for those students
who plan health careers. Those departments that have experienced
diminished support through training grants, or who have lost them
83
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
behavioral science
entirely, report a diminished quality of training programs provided for
persons entering the health fields (1978 Report, pp. 68-69~. The
proportion of graduate students planning to enter health f ields varies
from department to department and field to field. The largest single
g roup of such persons are the clinical psycholog ists. The training
grants for them have, in the past, supported preparation for clinical
activity or for research activity. If clinical training grants ~ranisb,
the importance of the research training grant will perforce increase.
The department that wishes to provide an excellent program of
training for a doctoral candidate who intends to enter a bealth-related
part of the behavioral sciences has ~ cliff icult task without outside
help. The training program must incorporate not only the essential
components of the discipline that provides an adequate base for a
research career, but also programs outside the department and in health
settings in order to relate the basic graduate education to the needs of
those settings. If the program does not include such components, the
individual is less likely to make an important contribution to health
research and is more likely either to engage in routine and easily
generated research or else to choose a career in a clinical or applied
setting and undertake little or no research. The Ph.D. in the
behavioral sciences who is able to apply the methods and the theoretical
bases of the behavioral sciences to the problems faced in the health
care system is a valued member of a health research team.
The need for a more comprehensive educational backs round for the
behavioral science investigator in the health f ields is so great that
the Committee has emphasized the postdoctoral program for health fields
as the essential ing redient for developing the cadre of experienced and
versatile investigators that will be required in the f uture. The
Committee has been willing, while acknowledg ing that some colleagues
hold a contrary view, to sacrif ice overall numbers in order to assure
that the
these patterns. It is important to keep in mind, however, that there
are subf ields, especially within the nonclinical sciences, that vary
substantially with respect to the relationship between supply and job
opportunities within them. Data are not available to permit a f iner
f ield analysis. Care should be taken, therefore, not to assume that all
subf ields are experiencing the same market conditions.
Current Indicators
Beginning with its 1978 Report, the Committee has differentiated
between clinical and nonclinical behavioral so fence in its analysis of
market conditions. Data gathered to aid in the assessment of national
needs for behavioral scientists have provided increasing evidence of the
diverse patterns of employment, enrollments, and Ph.D. production in
these segments. The clinical segment, composed of clinical os~rcholoa~,
counseling and guidance, and educational psychology,
. a. . _ _ ~ ~ ~ _ ~ ~ _ _ ~ . ~ ~
is heavi ly oriented
~:owaras nonacademic employment and is currently enjoying a rather strong
market for the services of this group of Ph.D. Is (Figure 4.1) . On the
other hand, the nonclinical segment, composed of nonclinical psychology,
anthropology, sociology, and speech and hearing sciences is heavily
dependent on academic employment and consequently is facing a weakening
demand brought on largely bar the prospect of reduced faculty needs in
the f ace of declining enrollments.
14
~ 12
Q
I 10
o
8
z
z
Or
~ 4
UJ
>
a:
2
_ 7.8
5.4
11.1
TOTAL
BEHAVIORAL
Total
O Academic
Nonacademic
6.0
5.5
7.3
10.6
-
NONCLINICAL CLINICAL
FIGURE 4.1 Average annual growth in behavioral science labor force by broad field and employment
sector, 1973-79. See Table 4.2.
85
Unemployment remains low for both nonclinical and clinical fields
I Table 4.1 and Table 4. 2, lines 3h and 3p) . The percent still seeking
jobs at graduation (the "SEEKS variable) is also similar for both
behavioral f ields (Table 4. 1~; however, it has increased over the course
TABLE 4.1 Employment Situations for Recent Ph.D. Recipients in the Behavioral Sciences
1977-79 PhD.'s 1978 Ph.D.'s
_ _ _
Percent Unemployed Percent Still Seeing Ratio of Job
Field of Doctorate in 1979a Job at Graduation b Offers to InquinesC
Total Behavioral Sciences 2~0 13.9 .095
Clinical Fields 1.1 15.0 .169
Nonclinical Fields--Total 2~6 135 .069
NoncEnical Psychology 2~7 12~9 .070
Anthropology 0.9 16.2 .049
Sociology 3.8 13.4 .077
Over Sciences and Eng~neenug 1.0 8.3 .115
Percent of the 1978 PhD. recipients active in Me labor force who were unemployed and seeldug portions.
bPercent of 1977-79 POD. recipients who were still seeldng employment positions at the tone hey had completed
requirements for their doctorates.
CRatio of the total job offers received (excluding postdoctoral appointments) to the total number of inquires made
by 1978 Ph.D. recipients
SOURCE: National Research Council (1958~80, 1979b).
Of the 1970's (Table 4.2, lines lb and le.) and is higher than in other
science and engineering fields (Table 4.1). Other market indicators
demonstrate considerable differences in labor market conditions between
nonclinical and clinical fields. When looking at the ratio of job
offers received to job inquiries made by 1978 Ph.D.'s, one sees that
there was only 1 offer per 14 inquiries in the nonclinical f ields (which
is below the average for other sciences and engineering) compared to 1
offer per 6 inquiries in the clinical f ields (which is well above the
average for other f ields) (Table 4 .1) . These cliff erences are rein-
forced by other market indicators, including employment, enroll-
ments, Ph.D. production, f ield switching, and researab activity, which
follow.
Nonc linical Behavioral F. ields G
.
.
More than 75 percent of the nonclinical behavioral scientists were
employed in academia in 1979 (Table 4. 2, line 3b) . While
academic employment for this group increased by about 1, 000 or 2. 3
percent annual rate over the 1977 level, the growth rate in academic
employment has slowed perceptibly in the last half of the 1970
decade. No strong trend toward nonacademic employment by
nonclinical behavioral scientists is apparent.
Estimated undergraduate enrollments increased in 1976, but
dropped in 1977, the latest year for which we can provide under-
graduate enrollment estimates, to below the 1973 levels ~ line
4a). First-year graduate enrollments in nonclinical behavioral
science f ields dropped sharply in 1977 ~ line 4c) . Total graduate
enrollments also declined ~ line 4e) .
86
~ -
TABLE 4.2 Curt Trends In Supply~nd Indicators for Behavioral Slice PhD.~sa
_ . _
Anti A~ - .
Growth Rate n" Q~c
Mom 1973 L~tc~t mom 1973
to Latest Dual to latest
1973 197S 1976 1977 1978 1979 Year CALF Year
. . _
1. sumY INDICATORS (New Emu):
Nonclinical fields:
thD. production, 2,4841 2,793 2,897 2,89S 2,7;4S 2,738 1.6% ~03% 42
% of END.'' - Rout Pacific employment
projects at Deduction 8.9% 11.0% 13.0X 12.8% 13.8% 13.2% 6.8% 4.3% 0.72%
c. Po~ttoct~l sppts.C 384 51S N/A 644 N/A 816 13.4% 12.6% 72
fiscal Ileld~:
d. EhD. protuctionb 1,OSS 1,14S 1,293 1,3S3 1,46S 1,497 6.0% 2.2% 74
o. % of PhD.'~ without ~pc~c omploymcst
p~pe~ at ~dustion 11.1% 13.6% 13.7% 1S.0% 1S.4% 14.8% 4.9% -3.9% 0.62%
f. ~ttoctoral appuc 105 247 NlA 379 N/A 301 19.2% _1Qg% 33
2. DEMAND ~DlCATORS:
a Bd~moral ~ciences R "d D cxp~diturcs
In college~ "d un~vcratics (1972 S. miL) S128.0 S116.8 S106.7 S103.0 S102 S N/A -4.3% ~S% S~S.1
3. I^BOR FORCE:`
IhD.'~ employed in non~cal behenor~ Seldls:
L Total 19,833 23,732 N/A 26,670 N/A 28,0SS 6.0% 2.6% 1,370
b. Acedemic (e%cL po~tdocs.) lS,2S9 18,433 N/A 20,118 N/A 21,072 S.S% 2.3% 969
c. Bu~c~s 960 1,212 NIA 1,387 N/A 1,498 7.7% 3.9% 90
d. Govcrnmcnt 1,006 1,289 N/A 1,6S1 N/A 1,603 8.1% -1 S% 99
e. Nomprofit 1,081 1,271 N/A 1,340 N/A 1,S12 S.8% 6.2% 72
£ Self~employed 372 460 N/A SO1 N/A 4SS 3.4% 4.7% 14
~ Otber (incl. po~tdoc~) 871 699 N/A 1,02S N/A 1,32S 7.2% 13.7% 7S
h Unemployed ~d KCICiDg 284 368 NlA 648 NlA S90 13.0% —.6% S1
~D.'s employed m cinical babanoral fields:
~ Tota1 ll,S36 14,760 N/A 17,SS7 N/A 21,072 10.6% 9.6% 1,S89
]. Acatemic (e%bL postdoc~) 4,280 S,064 N/A S,432 N/A S,770 S.1% 3.199 248
1~ Bu~ea S1 169 N/A 412 N/A "6 43.S% 4.(1% 66
L Govc~mcat 1,llS 1,222 N/A 1,40S N/A 1,768 8.0% 12.2% 109
m. Nomprolit 3,3S4 4,7S9 N/A S,SS9 N/A 6,SS3 11.896 8.6% S33
a. Self~employed 1,S01 2,263 N/A 3,142 N/A 4,746 21.2% 22.9% Sd1
o. Other ('DcL postdocs) 1,132 1,218 N/A 1,S28 N/A 1,688 6.9% S.1% 93
p. Unetoployed "t soel~g 103 6S NlA 79 N/A 101 ~0.3X 13.1% -1
4. BEHA~O"LSaENCE/`OL=~:
a Est. undergr~tuste 69S,C14 668,097 671,847 634,631 N/A N/A -2.3% -S-S95 -1S,246
b. F=t-year gredusteC 26,269 29,376 31,S4S 29,778 N/A NtA 3.2X -S.6% 877
c. est. nonclinical 19,744 21,S61 22,677 21,043 N/A N/A 1.6% -72% 32S
~ on. cli~cal 6,S2S 7,81S 8,868 8,73S NlA N/A 7.6% -1 S% SS2
o. Totat ~tuatof 48,216 SS,383 S9,0S6 S8,289 N/A N/A 4.9% -1.3% 2,S18
f. est. nonc~l 36,081 ~O,S" 42,13S 41,106 N/A N/A 3.3% -2.4% 1,2S6
o~t. "ical 12,13S 14,839 16,921 17,183 NlA N/A 9.1% 1 S% 1,262
~In tbis table cl~ical behmoml field~ iDclude clinical and school p~ychology, coun~ding, ~nd guidenec; Donclinicet bdlanoral falds include ~thropolo=, ~oootogy,
nooc~ical prychology, ~d ~poech ~d heanng scicnecs.
bFor~ "tionals who r~d their doctoratc~ from U.S. u~venitics ue included.
csincc labor fo~cc dat are Dot anilabte for 1978,1~—t umual chu~e reprcrcnt~ average u~nus1 growth rate *om 1977-1979. Fore~ DBtiolU]S ~rho ~eceived their
doctorates from U.S. unmrsitice ue iDduded.
dE~ted by the fonnule Ui ~ (Ai.~2/B`. 2)Ci, erhere Ui ~ babevioral mence under~duste earoD'nents in year i; Ai+2 ' behanoal ~dence B^. degrees a~rded in
"r i+2; Bi+2 ~ to~ B^. depoc~ e~rded iD yoar {+2; Ci - total undergreduste enrollments in year i.
~Fint-year ~dustc earo1~ents iD cl~ic~l behavioral fieldr are atimated by the fonnule OGli ~ (QJI-P)i+2Elp where CGli ~ f~t-yeu c~ical "duste enrolhnents
h yeu i; (QIIT)i.~2 "tio of ~nlal prychology Ph.D.' to total prychology ~D.'~ amrded in year H2; Eli ~ ~t-yeu "duste earollments in psyd~ology in year i.
JTotal ~d~te amollmcsts is ~linical beheH - al field' are ~ma~ by ~e fonnub =;i ~ (Q~)h2 Ei, ~here CCi ~ c~c~ "duste au~ents in yc" i;
(Q/TP)h2 ~ ndo of chnictl p~rchology ~D." to to~ p~chology ~hD." a~rted in year i+2; Ei ~ psyd~ology ~d~te earollnents in year
SOURCES: NRC (19S8~80, 1973~0), NSF (197S-79), U.S. Dqnsln~nt of Etucedon (1948 81, 19S9-79, 1973~77, 1974~80).
87
Behavioral so fence R and D expenditures at colleges and
universities have been steadily declining at 4 percent per year in
constant dollars since 1972 ~ line 2a) .
Ph.D. production in nonclinical behavioral science f ields appears
to have reached a peak in 1976 at about 2,900. Since then it has
been declining slowly. The 1979 level was down 0.3 percent f rom 1978.
On the other hand, postdoctoral appointments in these f ields
continue to grow rapidly. In 1979 there were 816 individuals on
such appointments, up 33 percent f ram the 19 77 level ~ line lb) .
Clinical Behavioral Fields
l
Perceptions of better career opportunities in the clinical
behavioral f ields have attracted people f ram other areas. There
has been a def inite shif t in the make-up of the behavioral so fence
Ph.D. labor force during the 1970' s towards employment in clinical
f ields and away from the nonclinical f ields. In 1979, 43 percent
of the behavioral sc fence Ph. D. labor force was employed in
clinical fields, up from 37 percent in 1973 {Table 4. 2, lines 3a
and 3 i)
.
.
In contrast to the nonclinical behavioral sciences, most clinical
behavioral sc dentists are employed in the nonacademic sector. More
than 72 percent of Pb.D. 's employed in clinical fields were
employed in the nonacademic sector in 1979 and many of them were
self-employed or employed by nonprof it organizations ~ lines 3m and
an). Employment of clinical behavioral scientists in the
business sector has also grown quite rapidly during the 1970' s
~ line 3k) .
First-year graduate enrollments in the clinical behavioral sc fences
were down slightly in 1977 but total graduate enrollments continued
their long string of annual increases that began in 1968 ~ line 4d) .
Ph.D. production in the clinical behavioral f ields continued to
increase, reaching about 1, 500 in 1979 ~ line lo) . Despite this
inc. rease, the number that were unemployed in 19 79 was about the
same as in 1973. Postdoctoral appointments dropped to about 300
from their 1977 peak of 379 (line ld).
Field Switching
Field switching is a useful indicator of the relative health of a
f ield. High mobility into a f ield f ram other f ields usually indicates
demand in excess of supply ~ shortage), while the converse conditions
indicate a surplus of personnel in the f ield. A National Research
Council study of postdoctorate in science and engineering (NBC, 1981a)
collected data on the net mobility into behavioral science f ields for
1972 and 1978 Pb.~. 's. Net mobility was defined as the difference
between the number of doctorates employed in a f ield and the number of
doctorates in that f ield, expressed as a percentage of the number of
doctorates in that field. Table 4.3 indicates a clear trend in mobility
between 1972 and 1978 Ph.D. 's, with clinical fields showing a positive
and increasing inflow while the nonclinical sciences show an increasing
outf low.
88
TABLE 4.3 Net Field Switching by 1972 and 1978 Ph.D. Recipients in Me Behavioral Sciences
Field of Doctorate
Net Mobility into Me Fielda
1972 PhD.'s 1978 l~h.D.'s
Total Behavioral Sciences -16.2 -16.9
Clinical Fields +12.0 +16.1
Nonclinical Fields——Total -29.4 -36.8
N o n ~ I i n i c a 1 P s y c ~ h o l o g y - 3 2 ~ 5 - 3 1 . 7
Anthropology -40.7 _45.4
Sociology -1 1.8 -44.7
aDifference between the number of doctorates employed in a field and the number with doctorates in that field,
as a percentage of the number Off doctorates in mat field.
SOURCE: Radon Research Council (1979b).
Figure 4. 2 demonstrates that the clinical behavioral f ields
retain a high percentage of their Ph.D. 's (85.4 percent) with only
7.2 percent of clinical Pb.D. 's going to nonclinical behavioral
fields and the remainder going to other sciences and consciences.
In contrast, only 57.0 percent of nonclinical behavioral Ph.~. ' s
remained in their f ields for employment, with over 14 percent going
into each of clinical behavioral f ields, other sciences, and
consciences. The largest switch occurred in nonclinical psychology
where 23.0 percent of the Ph.D. IS are employed in clinical be-
haviora1 jobs (see Appendix Table Ale). It is likely that many of
those switching to clinical f ields are leaving research in the
process as noted in the following section.
Percent Nonclinical
Behavioral Science Ph.D.'s
Employed in:
Non-
sciences
Sciences _414.3%
~ 7.4% \
Other ~
Social . 7.2X ; Nonclinical
Sciences ~ / Behavioral
\ 14.1% / Sciences /
>< /
Clinical ~ \ /
Behavioral
Sciences
57.0%
Other
&ionces (1296)
Percent Clinical
Behavioral Science Ph.D.'s
Employed in:
Nonclinical
Behavioral
Scis=es \
N on sciences ::
85.4%
\ Clinical
\ Behavioral /
- _ Sciences ~
FIGURE 4.2 Employment field of 1972-78 behavioral science Ph.D.'s in 1979 by field of training.
See Appendix Table A10.
89
Research Activity
While the employment situation in the clinical behavioral f ields
appears more favorable than that in nonclinical behavioral f ields,
it is clear that nonclinical scientists are much more heavily
involved in research in 1979 than their clinical counter-
parts (Table 4. 4) . Nonclinical scientists spent an average of 30
percent of their time in research compared to 13 percent of clinical
scientists' time. The differences are most striking when examining
employment sector. Clinical behavioral so dentists in academia spend
a much higher portion of their time in research ~ 21 percent) than
those in nonacademic settings ~ 9 percent) . On the other hand, for
nonclinical Ph.~. 's, almost as much time is spent in research in
nonacademic employment ~ 28 percent) as in academia ~ 32 percent) .
These data indicate that nonclinical behavioral scientists continue
to utilize their research skills in a variety of research settings.
TABLE 4.4 Average Tune Spent in Research in 1979 by 1972 Behavioral Science Ph.D.'s by
Sector of Employment
Behavioral Sciences
All
Employment Sector Total Clinical Nonclinical Sciences
All Sectors . N 2,757 876 1,881 15,168
Avg.Timein Research (%) 25 13 30 36
Academic N 1,626 281 1,345 8,215
A~g. Tune in Research (DO) 30 21 32 34
Nonacademic N 1,097 595 502 6,795
Avg. Time in Research (I) 18 9 28 ~ - 39
Unknown N 34 0 34 158
Avg. Time in Research (A 21 21 9
SOURCE: Nadon~1 Research Council (19?9b).
Utilization Of Postdoctoral Training
The Committee and its Panel on Behavioral Sciences have
consistently taken the position that the behavioral so fences should
moire toward more active use of postdoctoral training so that
beginning scientists might obtain a higher level of research skills
90
and knowledge acquisition. The underlying argument is that the
f ield of behavior and health has reached a level of sophistication
that increasingly requires training beyond the predoctoral level.
This argument was reinforced in a workshop on training in behavior
and health sponsored by the Panel in January 1980 (NRC, 1981b), in
which the conferees concluded that postdoctoral training was an
important device for gaining needed knowledge and research skills.
The Committee and Panel have sought to monitor recent
developments in the utilization of postdoctorals in the behavioral
sciences. The size of the postdoctoral pool has risen f rom about
500 in 1973 to 1,100 in 1979, an average annual growth of almost 15
percent ~ see Table 4. 2) . Of course, the increase has taken place
f rom a very small base. An NRC study {NRC, 1981a, p. 77) estimated
that in 1979 postdoctorals in psychology comprised only 3 percent of
doctoral scientists in this f ield in academia. Growth in
postdoctorals has occurred most consistently in the nonclinical
f ields (13 percent annually) while the clinical sciences have
experienced a decrease in the latest period { 1977-1979) after an
earlier rapid growth (Table 4. 2) .
One of the most important outcomes of postdoctoral training is
expected to be increased research activity. While postdoctoral
training in ache behavioral sciences is still in its incipient
stages, with benef icial results largely in the future, it is
encourag ing to note that avai fable data indicate that those who have
taken postdoctoral appointments spend a considerable portion of
their employment time in research. Once again using data f rom the
recent NRC study of postdoctorate (Table 4. S), one can see that 1972
behavioral science Ph.D. 's who had postdoctoral experience spent
signif icantly more time in research in 1979 ~ 38 percent) than those
who did not (22 percent). The effect was most pronounced in the
clinical f ields where postdoctoral experience resulted in a more
than doubling of time spent in research ~ 25 percent compared to 12
percent for those without) . In the none lexical behavioral so fences
those with postdoctoral experience spent 42 percent of their time in
research compared to 28 percent of those who did not. The only
exception to this pattern is sociology, where those without
postdoctoral training spent more time in research ~ 33 percent) than
those with it (24 percent); however, only 10 percent of sociology
Ph.D. 's take postdoctorals (NRC, 1981a, p. 112) .
TABLE 4.5 Average Time Spent in Research in 1979 by 1972 Behavioral Science Ph.D.'s by
Postdoctoral Expenence
With Postdoctoral
Total Expenence
Field of Postdoctoral N ~0 N To
Without Postdate
total Expenence
N %
Total Behavioral 2,757 25 464 38 2,293 22
Clinical 876 13 100 25 776 12
Nonclinical--Total - 1,881 30 364 42 1,517 28
Nonclinical Psychology 1,206 30 248 48 958 26
Sociology 355 32 45 24 310 33
Anthropology 320 30 71 33 249 29
SOURCE: National Research Council (1979b).
91
Projections Through FY 1985
The next step in the analysis Is to attempt some short-tenm
projections of the market so that appropriate recommendations for
current training programs can be based on best estimates of future
needs. So far it has not been possible to demonstrate that a direct
relationship exists between academic demand for behavioral Ph.~. 's
and some measure of research activity, such as behavioral science R
and D expenditures in colleges and universities. Although the
latter have fallen more than 20 percent from their peak in 1972
(Figure 4.3), the faculty-student ratio, i.e., the ratio of
behavioral science Ph.D. faculty to total behavioral science
enrollment in colleges and universities (F/S) has continued to
rise.2 Why this is so, and whether this ratio will continue to
increase, remain open questions. As a result, the projection
methodology in the behavioral sciences relies simply on the
Committee's assumptions about future trends in enrollments and the
F/S ratio.
~ .
The Committee's projections of academic demand for behavioral
science Ph.D.'s are based on the following three assumptions about
the behavioral science F/S ratio: (a) that the F/S ratio will
continue to increase significantly through 1985, but at a slower
rate of growth than that which has occurred since 1972; (b) that the
F/S ratio will increase moderately through 1985; and c) that the F/S
_.
ratio will decline from its present (197.7) value of 0.037 to 0.035
in 198 5.
Behavioral science graduate and undergraduate enrollments have
fluctuated in a narrow range after reaching a peak in 1972. But the
latest estimates for 1977 show a sharp drop. For these enrollments,
a similar set of assumptions has been made: (a) that behavioral
enrollments will increase moderately through 1985, (b) that
behavioral enrollments will remain essentially at the 1977 level of
about 700,000 through 1985, and {c) that enrollments will decline to
about 600,000 students by 1985.
As usual, it is hoped that these assumptions represent upper
and lower bounds on the future pattern of these two variables and
that the middle assumption represents the most likely case. The
resulting projections of academic demand for behavioral science
Ph.D.'s {both clinical and nonclinical) are shown in Table 4.6.
Under the most optimistic set of assumptions, behavioral
science Pb.D. faculty would expand at 2.4 percent per year through
1985--a level that would just about preserve the current
supply/demand balance in the-system. In the worst case, behavioral
science faculty would contract by more than 2 percent per year.
In the most likely case, about 1,260 behavioral Ph.D. faculty
positions would be created each year through 1985 due to expansion
and attrition of faculty under these assumptions. But since an
estimated 2,2603 behavioral Ph.D.'s per year have found academic
employment during the period 1973 to 1979, the projections suggest a
considerably slower rate of growth in the academic sector in the
next few years. This conclusion clearly reinforces the Committee's
recommendation to shift the emphasis in the training programs from
predoctoral to postdoctoral support. By so doing, the NRSA programs
would preserve the important contributions that postdoctoral
appointees make to academic research while at the same time assist
92
TABLE 4.6 Projected Growth in Behavioral Science IPn.D. Faculty, 1978~5, Based on Projections of
Enrollment and Faculty/Student Ratiosa
Assumptions about the Faculty/Student Ratio
for Behavioral Ph.D.' in Colleges and
Universities
.
I II III
Assumptions about Behavioral Will continue to Increases Declines
Science Undergraduate and grow, reaching Lightly to to 0.03S
Graduate Enrollment 0.0385 by 198S 0.0375 by 1985 by 198S
A. WB1 continue to grow, Expected "e of behavioral
reaching 800,000 science faculty (F) in 1985 30,800 30,000- 28,000
students by 1983 Annual Down rate in F from
1978 to 1985 2.4% 2.0~o 1.1%
Average annual increment due
to faculty expansion 660 S60 310
Annual replacement needs due to: b
death and retirement 280 280 270
other attrition 990 970 940
Expected number of academic
positions to become available
annually for behavioral PhD.'s 1,930 1,750 1,520
B. Win remain at about the Expected me of behavioral
1977 level (700,000) science faculty (F) in 1985 26,950 26,250 24,500
through 1985 Annual growth rate in F from
1978 to 1985 0.7% 0.3~o -O.S%
Average annual increment due
to faculty expansion 180 90 -130
Annual replacement needs due to: b
death and retirement 260 260 250
other attrition 930 910 870
Expected number of academic
positions to become available
annually for behavioral PhD.'s 1,370 1,260
990
C. Will decline Expected size of behavioral
to 600,000 students science faculty (P) In 1985 23,100 22,S00 21,000
by 1985 Annual growth rate in F from
1978 to 1985 -1.3~o -1.6% -2.8%
Average annual increment due
to faculty expansion -310 -380 -570
Annual replacement needs due to: b
death and retirement 240 240 230
other attrition 850 840 810
.?
Expected number of academic
positions to become available
annually for behavioral P~D.'s 780 700 470
.
ab acuity is defined in this table as all academically employed ~D.'s, excluding postdoctoral appointees
Based on an estimated replacement rate of l.O~o annually due to death and retirement and 3.5~o annually due to other
attrition. These estimates were domed from NRC (1973~80).
94
l
their training in problem areas that are vital to the research
programs sponsored by the federal government.
Of course there is the possibility that the nonacademic sector
will expand rapidly enough to absorb all behavioral scientists, even
at the current rate of Ph.D. production. At least the clinical
behavioral scientists currently seem to be finding ample
opportunities in the nonacademic sector, but it is not likely that
these are research oriented positions. It should also be noted that
making precise estimates of the state of the market in the clinical
sciences is difficult, the more so because a substantial percentage
are engaged in private practice. It is impossible to predict how
long this source of employment will continue to increase and bow
long it will be available to nonclinical Ph.D.'s seeking to switch
fields. In addition, the impact on the labor market of the recent
expansion of professional schools of psychology, which are unrelated
to traditional academic programs, is difficult to predict.
Using its most likely projections of academic demand, the
Committee has attempted to estimate the appropriate size of the
behavioral science postdoctoral pool needed under these
circumstances. To do so requires certain information about the
behavioral science employment and training system for which we have
only approximate data. In some cases the Committee has used
estimates that exceed past postdoctoral utilization in the
behavioral sciences. This is because the Committee's intent has
been to break with prior practice and encourage the extensive use of
postdoctoral training where previously there was little. The
Committee regards such increased estimates as necessary~and
realistic. Using these best estimates we can provide some rough
guidelines on the size of the postdoctoral pool needed under certain
conditions. The Committee's recommendation for postdoctoral NRSA
support to rise from 610 in FY 1982 to 910 in FY 1985 averages 760
annually and therefore f ails within the limits of our estimates of
the need for average annual postdoctoral support, as shown in Table
4.7.
Line 1 of Table 4.7 shows the expected annual demand for
academic positions resulting from the Committee's most likely set of
assumptions in Table 4.6. The attrition rates used here, derived
from the National Research Council's biennial survey of Ph.D.
employment (NRC, 1973-80), are 1 percent per year for death and
retirement and 3.5% per year for other attrition.
Line 2 shows the number of accessions needed with postdoctoral
research training to satisfy expected demand if 25 percent and if 35
percent of all accessions have such training. Data from a study of
postdoctorate (NRC, 1981a, p. 148) indicate that slightly under 20
percent of 1978 Ph.D.'s in the behavioral sciences took postdoctoral
appointments in 1979. The Committee believes that this should
increase so that at least 35 percent of each new cohort will have
postdoctoral training.
Line 3 shows the size of the postdoctoral pool needed assuming
a 2-year training period on the average, and two assumptions about
the academic yield from the pool. The 2-year postdoctoral training
period for behavioral scientists is confirmed by other data from the
same study of postdoctorate (NRC, 1981a, p. 326). The assumption
about academic yield from the postdoctoral pool is an estimate based
upon overall academic employment in the labor force (55 percent).
95
TABLE 4.7 Estimated Number of Behavioral Science Postdoctoral Trainees Needed to Meet Expected
Academic Demand Through 1985 Under Various Conditions
Projected
(1978-85)
1. Academic demand for behavioral science Ph.D.'s--annual average:
a due to expansion of faculty
b. due to death and retirement
c. due to other attrition
2. Total accessionsC with postdoctoral research training--annual average:
a if 25~o of accessions have postdoctoral research Raining
b. if 35~O of accessions have postdoctoral research training
3. Size of behavioral science postdoctoral pool (1,117 in 1979)
Size needed to meet demand assuming a 2-yr. training period and portion of
trainees seeking academic positions is:
a" 50%
b. 60~o
4. Annual number of behavioral science postdoctoral trainees to be supported under
NRSA programs (395 in 1979):
a if 30~O of pool is supported under NRSA
b. if 40% of pool is supported under NRSA
cO if 50% of pool is supported under NRSA
1,260
90
260a
910b
320
440
1,280- 1,760
1,070- 1,470
320 - 530
420- 700
540- 880
aAssumes an attrition rate due to death and retirement of 1.0% per year.
bAssumes an attrition rate due to other causes of 3.5%0 per year.
CAccessions are defined as new hires or those who rejoin faculties from nonfaculty positions. Inter-faculty transfers
are not counted as accessions.
SOURCE: Table 4.6.
Line 4 estimates the number of behavioral science postdoctoral
appointees to be supported under NRSA programs be, applying percentages to
the smallest and largest numbers in line 3. Currently 35 percent of the
behavioral so fence postdoctoral pool is supported under NRSA. Because
the Committee believes that federal policy should take the lead in
encouraging greater use of the postdoctorals, a 50 percent level of NRSA
support of the postdoctoral pool is also specif led.
IMPLEMENTATION OF PRIOR ~=M=-14DATIONS
The Committee's recommendations in the behavioral sciences over the
last 6 years have remained consistent with respect to the numbers of
trainees and fellows supported, the level of dollars expended, and the
distribution of awards between predoctoral and postdoctoral levels. The
core of the recommendation" has been, within a framework of a constant
dollar level of support, to redistribute awards in the behavioral
sciences from the traditional predoctoral emphasis (70 percent/30 percent
96
predoctoral to postdoctoral} to one of postdoctoral emphasis ~ 70
percent/30 percent postdoctoral to predoctoral). The Committee
recommended that this transition be completed by FY 1981. The rationale
for this recommendation was that the less favorable labor market for
behavioral scientists, especially in academia, dictates a decrease in
predoctoral support, while the growing sophistication of behavioral
research in the area of health warrants an increase in postdoctoral
support. -
Over the last 2 years the Committee has been concerned that the
transition from a predominantly predoctoral program to one that
ispredominantly postdoctoral has proceeded too slowly. Rather than an
orderly transition, the ratio has moved slowly toward a higher
postdoctoral concentration (34.9 percent in FY 1980) via a sharp decline
in predoctoral awards (63 percent decrease since 1975) with a level of
postdoctoral support that rose between 1975 and 1977 but has since
remained basically constant (see Table 4.8 on p. 102).
As a result of this concern, the Panel on Behavioral Sciences sent a
letter to the ADAMHA Administrator inquiring about ADAMHA's policy with
respect to implementing this change. The Administrator responded that
his agency supported the Committee's recommendations and was making
strong efforts to implement such a policy. The efforts made by ADAMHA
included (1) giving priority to postdoctoral awards in their announce-
ments, (2) funding most postdoctoral applications with good priority
scores, and (3) encouraging applicants to emphasize postdoctoral
training. An indication of the success of these efforts was that in FY
1980 the proportion of new and competing awards that were postdoctoral
was 55 percent. -
The Administrator reported, however, that significant external
impediments have been imposed that have constrained ADAMHA's ability to
respond more rapidly:
Overall funds available for research training bave lost
ground to inflation. ADAMHA's training funds rose only
slightly in current dollars, from $19.4 million in FY 1976
to $20.0 million in FY 1980, a decline in real dollars of 23
percent.
As a result of the mandated increase in stipend levels in FY
1980, the same amount of funds could support many fewe
graduate students and postdoctorals.
Although there has been progress in responding to the
Committee's recommendations, the professional field has been
slow in broadening its emphasis to include more post-
doctoral training (due tithe break from past patterns of
training) . This situation is improving over time.
The result of these conditions has meant tbat ADAMHA has had little
flexibility in the administration of its resources. Cutbacks have had to
be made in both predoctoral training grants and fellowships. The loss of
these funds and the recent increases in stipend levels has sharply
reduced the agency's ability to finance new postdoctoral awards. Another
factor inhibiting the transition is that certain programs targeted for
minority groups and epidemiology training have priority for predoctoral
support, and ADAMHA has exempted them from the switch to postdoctoral
emphasis. -
97
The Committee is cognizant of these constraints on the ability of
ADAMHA to plan effectively and to implement a policy of emphasizing post-
doctoral training. The Committee Is pleased that ADAMHA remains
committed to effectuating this policy and appreciates its efforts to make
progress in this direction. The Committee believes that a stabilization
of federal support for research training (see Chapter 1) would restore to
ADAMHA the means to implement this policy.
A related issue of continuing concern to the Committee and Panel has
been the support of behavioral science trainees by NIH. Trainee support
data provided by NIH have shown a rapid decline in predoctoral trainees
between FY 1975 and FY 1980 (from 587 to 105) and a slight increase in
postdoctoral trainees (74 to 76) in that period. As a result, the
percentage of postdoctoral trainees has increased greatly (from 11
percent to 42 percent) but almost wholly as a result of reductions in
predoctoral trainees. In a letter to the NIH Director on January 21,
1981, the Panel requested clarification of NIH policy regarding the
support of behavioral scientists. In particular, inquiry was made about
the possibility that the actual number of behavioral science trainees
supported by NIH was being masked by their classification under clinical
research training programs. In response, reclassif ication by :NIH, based
upon trainee f ield rather than f ield of training grant, demonstrated that
in f act more behavioral so fence students are being trained; however,
under either classif ication, the increase in the number of postdoctorals
has been quite small.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Levels of Federal Funding for Research and Research Training
The Committee has taken note of the likely reductions in federal
funding for research in certain areas, and proposed reductions in funding
for research training in the social sciences. If the federal government
elects to reduce funding for research, the Committee believes that as a
natural consequence it is fully appropriate for those areas of research
related to health to be reduced in funding as well. It should be
recognized, however, that any reduction in the overall level of federal
funding in health research will probably reduce the number of persons who
will be interested in electing careers in this area. The likelihood of a
fulf tiling career in health research is an important ingredient in the
choices made by young persons. Should there be public evidence of a
reduction in interest in supporting work in this area, the consequences
will be substantial, and for a considerable period of time irreversible.
Should national policy for reduction of all federal funding lead to
a proportionate reduction in overall federal funding for training grants,
the Committee sees certain short-term disadvantages but fewer long-term
disadvantages as long as cutbacks are not too severe. A reduction in
funding for training grants would be painful In that many programs of
very good quality would be able to attract and support a smaller number
of students. However, if the training grant reduction still permits the
funding of a suff icient number of institutions of high quality to ensure
the continuance of the very best training programs, the Committee would
see this as a not part icularly serious problem for the disciplines in the
behavioral and social sciences. In addition, the Committee sees possible
training budget reductions as a much more serious problem in those
98
departments that are housed in medical schools, that have few alternative
forms of support available for the very best of their students.
The Committee has had a long-standing concern for the protection
of high-quality training programs. Thus, it views with apprehension any
prospect of reduc ing support in the behavioral and sac ial so fences to
such an extent that high quality training programs would be impaired.
These training programs are critical for the study of the behavioral
aspects of the treatment of disease, aspects that have come more and more
to the fore as being important to the appropriate treatment of a wide
variety of diseases. In studies of the etiology of disease, the work in
these domains has been among the most important. The Committee believes
that a substantial number of very able persons should continue to be
supported in the very best programs, especially at the postdoctoral
level, to ensure continuance of this level of research effort during a
time when careers in this area will be becoming less and less attractive
to young people.
Recommendation. While reductions in training support may
. .
be necessitated by overall budget constraints, it is impor-
tant that some training support be preserved in the health-
related behavioral and social sciences and that this support
be directed to the highest quality programs.
Behavioral Science Versus Social Science
ADAMEA and other federal agencies have been directed to make a
distinction between the behavioral sciences and the social sciences. The
social sciences are to be reduced in funding or eliminated, but the
behavioral sciences shall continue to get support. The Committee
believes that this distinction is without merit, that any attempt to
implement such a policy would have negative consequences. The Committee
also believes that the decision to fund research in the behavioral and
social sciences should be made by ADAMNA in the same way that it makes
decisions about all of its areas of support. A proposal should be funded
if it is of high quality and if it will produce effects directly related
to the improvement of health care. Training grants should be funded if
the programs frill produce persons who will make such a signif icant
contribution to research, if the number of persons prepared in this area
would be insuff icient were the training grant not in place, or if the
quality of persons so trained would be inadequate for the tasks ahead
were the training g rant not awarded .
The Committee supposes that the distinction between the behavioral
and social sc fences has been made on the erroneous assumption that sac ial
scientists have supported the social programs of prior administrations,
and that with reduction in those social programs, there is an obvious
need to reduce the number of persons in sac ial sc fence. This assumption
rests on a misapprehension. Social science and social activism are not
the same. The research produced by persons with Ph.D. ' s in the
behavioral and social science disciplines--psychology, sociology, and
antbropology--has proven a valuable aid in understanding the ways in
which human beings behave under varying conditions, including the
effectiveness of social programs. This group of dedicated scientists is
highly useful to society, and more persons like them need to be prepared
in the next generation. In particular, our stock of behavioral and
social scientists is essential to the development of solutions to
important health problems in the f uture .
99
The Committee believes that certain domains are not fully appropri-
ate for funding by ADAMHA in teems of its agency mission. In the past
the review of proposals from programs only marginally related to alcohol,
drug abuse, and mental health has been in the main negative. It is
expected that those reviews will continue to be negative. With a
reduction in funds, the more traditional programs are likely to survive
at the expense of innovative and experimental programs. This will be a
short-term disadvantage to the field but not ruinous in terms of the
maintenance of an adequate number of research personnel in the next
generation. The Committee recommends that ADAMHA assure itself of the
direct health relatedness of a proposal and of a training program,
without concern for the vague and questionable distinction between
behavioral so fence and social so fence.
Recommendation. All f ields of the behavioral and social
sciences continue to make valuable contributions to the
solution of health problems. Beyond quality, the proper
criterion for awarding behavioral and social science training
g rants should remain the relevance of the applications to the
solution of health problems that are the responsibility of
NIH and ADAMHA.
Predoctoral and Postdoctoral Awards
Over the last 4 years, the Committee has consistently and firmly
recommended a transformation of NRSA training support from a predoctoral
to a postdoctoral emphasis. Its rationale has been a dual concern for a
declining academic labor market, pointing toward reduced predoctoral
support, and a need for an increased sophistication in research training,
implying greater postdoctoral support. These conditions continue to
exist at this time. Recent employment patterns and the employment
outlook through 1985 described earlier in this chapter indicate continued
problems in the employment of nonclinical behavioral scientists. At the
same time, the growing complexity of research problems in behavioral and
health argue strongly for the acquisition of more depth of training
experience. The Committee thus sees the demand for more highly skilled
researchers increasing at the same time that the overall demand for
numbers of researchers remains soft.
The Committee's recommendations over the years have been intended to
help lead the way in responding to these new needs in employment and
training. Rather than simply extrapolating from past practice, the
Committee has sought to encourage the professional community to offer
more extensive training through the provision of greater numbers of
postdoctoral awards. The Committee's prior recommendations were based on
maintaining a constant dollar training budget using FY 1975 as a baseline
and a transformation of the traditional predoctoral training emphasis ~ 70
percent/30 percent predoctoral to postdoctoral) to a predominantly
postdoctoral emphasis ~ 30 percent/70 percent predoctoral to
postdoctoral). The Committee believes that its reexamination of the
market and its new analysis of the demand f or postdoctorate sustain its
p r for recommendat ions.
100
Since these recommendations were f irst made, the agencies'
implementation has been slowed because of budget constraints and the
professional community's reluctance to depart from tradition and
establish a postdoctoral training pathway. Even so' the size of the
postdoctoral pool has increased at an average annual rate of almost 15
percent between 1973 and 1979, although the numbers remain small. The
Committee believes that, if ADAMHA is given an adequate and stable
budget, the rapid g rowtb in the postdoctoral pool can be continued and
the quality of training strengthened.
Originally, the Committee proposed that its recommendations be
it lemented by FY 1981 (Table 4. 8) . Because of budget restrictions,
however, this goal will clearly not be reached this year as proposed.
The Committee therefore must reformulate its recommendations to allow for
a phasing in through FY 1985, as indicated in the last section of Table
4.8. Budget reductions have led to cutbacks in predoctoral support that
are rapidly approaching the Committee' s recommended level of 390. The
task at hand is to increase substantially the level of postdoctoral
support over the next 4 years.
Recommendation. The Committee reef f irms its position
that federal support for training in the behavioral sciences
shift its emphasis from predoctoral to postdoctoral. A
gradual phasing is recommended so that a level of 390 pre-
doctorals and 910 postdoctorate will be supported annually
by FY 1985.
Training Grants and Fellowships
In all its prior reports the Committee teas recommended the
continuance of the training grant mechanism as a way of improving the
quality of graduate education in the behavioral sciences at the
predoctoral and postdoctoral levels. Today, the Committee sees even more
clearly the need for the continuance of this program. The increasing
uncertainty of behavioral and social science research funds, which
support research assistants at the graduate level, and decreasing
enrollments that will decrease the number of teaching assistants needed
to teach undergraduates means that alternate sources of support for the
ablest of the graduate students in the country will diminish sharply in
the coming years. This has led the Committee to the belief that serious
problems will arise in the future if training support is not continued.
The training grant is the most effective training mechanism because
it provides an opportunity for departmental planning and the optimal use
of scarce departmental resources. In particular, the institutional
support component provides an important supplementary source of f unds
with which to structure a training program. This is especially important
for health-related training in the behavioral sciences, which frequently
lacks an institutional commitment within large behavioral science
departments and in medical schools. The Committee is convinced that
recent proposals for eliminating institutional support f rom training
grants, if effected, would have an immediate detrimental impact on
training quality and would reduce the value of the training grant
substantially.
101
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The Committee continues to believe that some fellowship support
ought to be made available in predoctoral areas where f ield work is
necessary, e.g., anthropology, and in postdoctoral training areas that do
not yet possess institutional training grants.
Recommendation. The training grant should be the pre-
dominant mechanism of support in the behavioral sciences
with an 80 percent/20 percent traineeship to fellowship ratio.
In addition, because of the importance of the institutional
support component of the award in planning and administering
health-related training programs in behavioral science
departments, the Committee strongly endorses the continua-
tion of the training grant mechanism.
103
NOTES
1. While the f ield of psychiatry is closely related to the babavioral
sciences, the responsibility for the measurement of market demand in this
f ield teas been assigned to the clinical sciences.
2. The term of acuity. as used here includes those who are employed by an
academic institution without faculty rank, such as research appointees.
Postdoctoral appointees are excluded from this definition of faculty.
The terms ~faculty. and ~academic. are used here interchangeably.
3. About 1,220 positions per year have been created by faculty expansion
and another (estimated) 1, 040 have been created by attrition, assuming an
attrition rate of 4. 5 percent per year (1. 0 percent due to retirement and
3. 5 percent due to other causes such as leaving the f ield) .
104