Personnel Needs and Training for Biomedical and Behavioral Research: 1983 Report (1983)

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3. Basic Biomedical Sciences \ 1 1 Bioscience Ph.D. production has been essentially level since 1972 and can be expected to start dropping as a result of declining graduate enrollments. Conse- quently, the rapid growth in the number of biomedical scientists serving in postdoctoral positions during the 1970s is expected to level off in the 1980s. Nonacademic demand, especially in the new biotech- nology industry, is expected to be strong, but the universities will continue to be counted on to supply Students entering graduate school today will be completing their training in the l990s when long-term demographic trends will be-tin to chance again. the training. ,~ _ ~~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Both short-term and long-term projections indicate the need to sustain tbe current level of support for both predoctoral and postdoctoral training in the basic biomedical sciences. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW .In this chapter we discuss the national needs for research - personnel in the basic biomedical sciences and the supply available to meet these needs. From the most recent data and-from the extensive experience of Committee and Panel members are derived recommendations for the numbers of predoctoral and postdoctoral trainee and fellowship awards to be provided under the National Research Service Awards Act during the next 5-year period.. - One of the Committee's most important.tasks is the collection and analysis of the latest data on enrollments, degrees, R and D funding, and employment for doctorate-level scientists. The data in this chapter help to define the supply/demand situation for scientists in the basic biomedical fields as it existed in 1980-81, providing up to 3 additional years of data beyond that reported on by this Committee in 1981. Perhaps the most important trends shown by the recent data involve two variables to which the system is highly sensitive--postdoctoral 50

51 appointments and enrollments. Following a trend that began in the early 1970s, the number of biomedical scientists serving on postdoctoral appointments increased 5 percent per year between 197 9 and 1981 (Table 3.17. This growth occurred during a period in which Ph.D. production was essentially constant. But the rate of growth in postdoctoral appointments appears to have slowed somewhat in 1% 1, and as the analyses in this chapter will show, there is reason to expect this growth to continue to moderate in the near future. As for enrollments in the basic biomedical sciences, it is clear that they have leveled off after a long period of steady growth since 1960. Estimated undergraduate enrollment reached a peak in 1976 and dropped for 3 years in a row before rebounding somewhat in 1980. Bioscience baccalaureate degrees have been declining since 1976, and bioscience graduate enrollments reached a peak in 1978. As of 1982, enrollment in medical schools was still growing at less than 2 percent per year, but preliminary data for FY 1983 show practically no growth. Biomedical science R and D funding in colleges and universities has continued to advance at approximately 4 percent per year (after adjusting for inflation). Research grant expenditures by the NIH declined in FY 1% 1, after gaining almost 5 percent per year in real terms since 1975. A similar pattern was exhibited by total national expenditures for health related R and D. The total Ph.D. labor force of biomedical scientists approached nearly 70,000 individuals in 1981, with just over half employed by academic institutions. Academic employment has been increasing by more than 4 percent a year. Employment in the industrial sector is growing much faster, and self-employment is the fastest growing category. The unemployment rate remains low at just over 1 percent. This report contains recommendations based on both short-term and long-term considerations. Our main objective is to promote a stable system in which biomedical scientists are trained and absorbed into productive research positions. For this we must take a long-term look at the system, including trends in graduate school enrollment and the age profile of university faculty members. Consideration of these and other factors point to a decreasing supply of bioscientists and an increasing attrition rate from the active pool of researchers in the 1990s. In the shorter term, the supply of trained individuals appears adequate although heavy industrial recruitment, particularly in areas related to biotechnology, may create shortages in some disciplines. We will return to the supply/demand outlook for biomedical scientists later in this chapter after discussing the predoctoral and postdoctoral training systems for these scientists. THE TRAINING SYSTEM IN BIOMEDICAL SCIENCE FIELDS In this section, the stages in the career of young biomedical scientists are described to assist in understanding the system in which they are trained in this country. These stages are shown in Figure 3.1. Data in the diagram are the average numbers of scientists

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- B-s- ' DEGREES I N 5,300 LIFE ~ SC I ENC ES (est. size in 1981: 65,100) ram , 2,500, I B.S. I ~ I DEGREES ~ 1 I I N OTHER ~ F I ELDS J PH.D. PROGRAMS IN BIOMEDICAL SC I ENC ES I~ ~ NEW PH . D . S 1 I FROM OTHER 1 1 F I ELDS L_ -____ ___J 53 r - - - - - - _ _ _] I EMP LOYMENT OR ~ 1 1 200 ~ POSTDOCTORAL I ,~ , IN OTHER F I ELDS, ~ _ _ _ _ _ _ ~ 1,200 2,000 ~ SC I ENC E S 300/ (est. size in 1981: 8,204 ~ ~ 1 2 ~— POSTDOCTORA L POPULAT ION IN ' RInMEDTCAI TOTA L ACAD EM I C A ND NONACAD E M I C PH.D. WORKFORCE EXC LUD I NO POS TDOCTORA LS IN BIOMEDICAL SC I ENCES ~ (est. size in 1981: 60,900) 400 Aim RET IRE- FIGURE 3.1 Doctoral training system in the biomedical sciences. Estimates represent the average annual number of individuals following particular pathways during the 1973-81 period. No estimates have been made for immigration, emigration, or reentry into the labor force. each year from 1973-81 who have followed particular routes. Depicted on the left is the incoming supply of baccalaureate degree recipients headed for doctoral training in the biomedical sciences. To the right is the active Ph.D. labor force. Estimates of the pool sizes in 1981 are given where these can be made. During 1973-81, attrition from the labor force due to death and retirement has averaged only 400 scientists a year (path I), while the total number entering has averaged 3,500 scientists annually (paths 0, G. and H). Consequently, there has been an annual net growth in the biomedical Phi. labor force of approximately 3,100 individuals. The "training system" may be viewed as a network of interconnected pools, with a flow of trainees from left to right. The flow between pools is determined by the number of individuals having the credentials (and interest) required to enter the next stage in their career development. The transition from one stage to another is influenced by a variety of factors including the trainee's personal career preference, the availability of student financial support, institu- tional resources (space, supplies, faculty), and institutional admissions policies.

54 The pathways described in Figure 3.1 represent the available routes to careers in research. Students may leave at any stage, but they must generally re-enter where they withdrew. The route most commonly followed by undergraduates interested in research careers in this field is through doctoral (paths A and B) and postdoctoral training (path E} in the biomedical sciences. Completion of doctoral training may require between 5 and 7 years from receipt of the baccalaureate degree, and Ph.D. scientists typically spend between 2 and 4 years on postdoctoral apprenticeships. Thus, from the time a student enters graduate school to the time he or she completes postdoctoral training may take from 7 to 11 years (with a median of 9 years in postgraduate training). As shown in the diagram, there are three separate stages through which aspiring young biomedical scientists pass: undergraduate, graduate, and postdoctoral training. Described on the following pages are the features of each phase that affect both the numbers and the quality of young investigators trained to fill the nation's need for research personnel in the basic biomedical sciences. Undergraduate Training Most of the undergraduates preparing for research careers in the basic biomedical sciences pursue baccalaureate programs in biology or chemistry, but some also receive their degrees in physics, mathematics, or a social science. Attrition in undergraduate programs Is high--an estimated 40 percent of the matriculants do not graduate--and a majority of those who do graduate are either not interested in or do not qualify for graduate study. The decision to enroll in a doctoral program is influenced by several considerations. Most biology undergraduates plan careers in one of the health professions, and they generally receive very little encouragement to pursue careers in biomedical research--especially since the numbers of faculty openings in this field have diminished in recent years. The availability of federal training grant support may also directly or indirectly affect career decisions by undergraduates. In times when federal funds for graduate training were more plentiful, the staff at research institutions often pursued active recruiting programs that included visits to non-research colleges and the provision of summer research opportunities to sophomores and juniors. In the last few years these efforts have diminished. Furthermore, students considering careers in biomedical research may view the diminishing level of federal training support as an indication that the recruitment of well-qualified investigators into this field is no longer an important national priority. Doctoral Training The primary goal of those undertaking graduate study in the basic biomedical sciences is to begin to establish credentials as an

55 independent investigator. Admission of students into graduate school is usually based on undergraduate grade point average, performance on the Graduate Records Examination (or a comparable test), and faculty recommendations. In many instances considerable weight is also given to the undergraduate research experience of the candidate and a personal interview. During their first 2 years in graduate school, students are expected to take advanced courses in their major area of work and in related areas. There is generally great freedom allowed in the selection of courses so that each individual develops a unique set of skills. After completion of course work, students must pass qualifying examinations (written, oral, or both) and then concentrate on their areas of research interest. A doctoral candidate typically spends between 3 and 4 years (beyond course work) developing skills as an independent investigator. Submission of a doctoral dissertation, describing a significant and original scientific contribution, is a primary requirement for successful completion of the Ph.D. program. Often students present manuscripts based on their research which are accepted for publication in refereed journals. At every step in the development of a research scientist, new skills are required. As an undergraduate, a student may do very well with a high capacity to memorize and to study. A graduate student must be able to pose questions, devise experiments to answer them, carry out experimental protocols (often devising new procedures and creating new instrumentation or equipment), and manage time in an unstructured environment. The Ph.D. candidate must display creativity and have the motivation to function independently with only limited supervision. The student will succeed only if he or she can work alone and grow in scientific independence. Many doctoral students withdraw because they cannot make the transition from undergraduate to graduate school setting--even though they possess the intellectual capacity required. Attrition due to academic failure is not common but does occur. Also, some students, having been exposed to the research environment, may reassess their career goals and decide to pursue other interests (e.g., careers in medicine or in other scientific fieldsJ. Half the students enrolling in doctoral programs do not complete requirements for the Ph.D.--some terminate study at the master's level--and there is no compensating inflow of replacements for those leaving. This attrition rate has always been high. Neither faculty nor students have a reliable basis for predicting which students have the necessary personal commitment that is essential for completion of the degree. Keeping uncommitted students in the program would be truly wasteful. While in doctoral training, many students hold teaching assistant- ships, research assistantships, traineeships, and fellowships and receive an average annual stipend of approximately 36,000. Graduate students are involved in a very large share of the projects sponsored by the NIB, NSF, and other federal agencies funding health-related research. On the average, each student contributes 3-4 years of full-time effort directed toward the elucidation of a carefully selected scientific question. While the proportion of the overall research effort attributable to graduate students cannot be reliably

56 estimated, it is evident that they play an essential role. Typically, the supervisory faculty member selects the areas of focus for research, obtains the required funding and other resources, provides direction and consultation, bumpy do little of the actual experimen- tation or data collection. The last are major responsibilities of the graduate students and postdoctorals, although both play significant roles in the design of experiments as well. The contribution of graduate students to the leadership position in the biomedical sciences now held by the U.S. must be recognized. If the number of graduate students is decreased, or if fewer stay to complete degrees, research productivity in the basic sciences will be directly diminished. The graduate student contribution cannot be replaced by technicians who generally do not contribute to experi- mental design. They cannot be replaced by postdoctorate unless the latter category is increased substantially--and that can only be achieved by having;more graduate students to feed the postdoctoral pool. Nevertheless it seems essential to face up to the longer-term prospects of a different mix of contributors to the research work force. Smaller numbers of graduate students, larger numbers of postdoctorals, who are better paid and who hold more permanent positions, as well as larger numbers of technicians can be expected. Postdoctoral Training An estimated 60 percent of the Ph.D. recipients in the basic biomedical sciences now go on to postdoctoral appointments, and that percentage has been increasing steadily over the past 15 years. Unlike undergraduate and graduate training programs that are the shared responsibility of departmental faculty groups, postdoctoral training is generally the province of individual faculty members. Each member directs the activities of his or her research group, and that group and the interactions among individuals within the group provide the environment for postdoctoral training. The principal determinants of whether a graduate student pursues postdoctoral training are the career goals of the individual, the opportunity to work with a highly regarded mentor or research team, the availability of attractive employment~aiternatives, and a variety of personal considerations (e.g. r geographic location, financial incentives). For those interested in faculty careers at major research institutions, a minimum of 1-2 years postdoctoral apprenticeship is generally required. Although there is no formal certification attached to the post-Ph.D. training, 3 years is accepted as the standard time needed to achieve the appropriate level of experience. Many young scientists extend their studies to 4 or more years because of interest in a particular project, desire to complete their research and publish the findings, or a lack of alternative employment opportunities. Although the postdoctoral stipend--ranging from $14,000 to $18,000 per year--is well below the salary paid to a junior faculty member, many young biomedical scientists find the postdoctoral experience

57 highly rewarding, as witnessed by this passage from a previous NAS study. From the perspective of the young investigator the postdoctoral appointment has provided a unique opportunity to concentrate on a particular research problem without the burden of either the teaching and administrative responsibilities usually given to a faculty member or the formal degree requirements of a graduate student. As the competition for research positions has intensified during the past decade, the opportunity as a postdoctoral to establish a strong record of research publications has become increas- ingly attractive to many young scientists interested in careers in academic research. (NRC, 1981a, p. 82) Those holding postdoctoral appointments contribute to the quality, creativity, and productivity of the research enterprise. The roles that these individuals play in the research effort depend on the modus operandi of the senior investigator, the nature of the research problem, the size and composition of the research team, departmental and institutional policies, and the talents and experience of the individual. Frequently the importance of the postdoctoral scientist's contribution to the research effort is recognized in his or her inclusion as the principal author of one or more articles based on the f indings. Furthermore, many postdoctoral appointees are substantially involved in the training of gradm te and undergraduate students. Following completion of the postdoctoral tenure, most individuals are expected to move on to research positions in academia or in industry and government laboratories. An increasing fraction, however, remain more-or-less permanently employed as senior research associates in the university setting. These scientists are often key members of a research group--providing continuity through the training of new group members and maintaining the research environment and oral history of long-term projects. These senior research associates complement the lead faculty members and provide day-to-day supervision of the laboratories. EXPANSION OF THE POSTDOCTORAL POPULATION For several years now the Committee has paid particular attention to changes in the size of the postdoctoral population in the basic biomedical sciences. During the 1973-81 period the number of biomedi- cal scientists holding postdoctoral appointments in universities has climbed at a reasonably constant rate of 9 percent per year--signifi- cantly higher than the rate of growth for faculty. The net annual increments to the postdoctoral group have averaged approximately 420 scientists (Figure 3.2), while the total number of Ph.D. graduates each year has increased only slightly.

58 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 en 5,000 an 4,000 3,000 2,000 1 ,000 - \1,555 O . 1' 1 73 75 6 ,893> Academi c _ Pn~tdnec Ph.D. Awards _ 3,838' Fi rst-Year Postdocs- ~ 2,150 FISCAL YEAR FIGURE 3.2 Estimated growth in the numbers of Ph.D. awards, academic post- doctoral appointments, and first-year postdoctoral appointments in the bio- medical sciences, 1973-81. First-year appointments are estimated from the number of Ph.D. recipients each year planning to take postdoctoral training positions in an academic setting after completing their graduate education. See Appendix Table B3. This postdoctoral growth has important implications for both research and research training in the biomedical disciplines. In terms of numbers, the postdoctoral group constitutes an estimated 18 percent of the full-time equivalent bioscience research personnel in Ph.D.-granting universities (NRC, 1981a, p. 1951. Because they bring with them fresh ideas and new techniques and devote their full energies to their scientific investigations, the importance of the postdoctoral group to the quality, creativity, and productivity of

59 scientific inquiries is much greater than their numbers alone suggest. On the other hand, there is some concern that in recent years more biomedical science graduates have taken postdoctoral appointments than may find career opportunities in research. In an earlier report the Committee found that more than 40 percent of the FY 1971-75 Ph.D. recipients who held postdoctorate in 1976 indicated that they had prolonged their appointments because of difficulty in finding employment positions they desired {NRC, 1975-81, 1977 report, Vol. 2, p. 31~. Other evidence presented later in this section reveals that since 1973 a steadily declining fraction of postdoctoral scientists in biomedical fields have subsequently moved on to faculty positions in major research universities. With this concern in mind the Committee has made a detailed examination of the postdoctoral growth during the 1973-81 period. The analysis has focussed on six questions: 1. What are the principal factors underlying the postdoctoral expansion in the basic biomedical sciences? 2. In which university settings has most of the expansion occurred? Have the demographic characteristics of the postdoctoral population changed significantly during the 8-year period? Do those who have held appointments 4 years or longer differ from other postdoctoral scientists--in terms of their training background and other characteristics? 5. Have the more recent graduates encountered greater difficulty in pursuing careers in research after completing their postdoctoral training? 6. IS the rapid rate of postdoctoral expansion observed the past 8 years likely to continue? The following examination of these questions relies exclusively on detailed tabulations of data collected in the NRC's biennial {1973-81) Survey of Doctorate Recipients. The survey includes responses from a 15 percent sample of biomedical scientists who had earned their doctorates within the previous 43 years; responses have been weighted to provide population estimates. Factors Contnbuting to Postdoctoral Expansion The steady growth in the postdoctoral population in academia may be attributed primarily to two factors: an increase in the numbers of new Ph.D. recipients pursuing additional research training in the biomedical sciences and an increase in the average length of time individuals spent in postdoctoral apprenticeships As illustrated in Figure 3.2, the number of first-year postdoctoral appointees is estimated to have grown at a rate of approximately 75 individuals a

60 year--accounting for two-fifth of the postdoctoral expansion between 1973 and 1981. It may be presumed that the remainder was due to a prolongation of postdoctoral tenure. During this 8-year span the median length of time spent in postdoctoral training increased frOm 2 to 3 years. Table 3.2 presents data describing the percentages of At., TABLE 3.2 Estimated Percent of Biomedical Ph.D. Recipients Entering Postdoctoral Training Immediately After Graduation Who Still Held Appointments 3, 4, and 5 Years Later Ph.D. Cohorta Percent Holding Postdoctorals After: 3 Years 4 Years 5 Years 1967-68 3.9 1968~9 9.8 1969-70 22.2 10.9 1970-71 19.1 1971-72 33.5 10.7 1972-73 20.2 1973-74 42.1 12.1 1974-75 26.8 1975-76 47.8 22.9 1976-77 32.8 1977-78 47.1 . aEach cohort includes Ph.D. recipients from the 2-year period specified wl~o indicated at Me time they completed requirements for their doctorates that they had firm commit- ments to take postdoctoral appointments. SOURCES: National Research Council (1958-82, 1973~2~. biomedical Ph.D. recipients taking postdoctoral appointments immediately after graduation who still held training appointments 3, 4, and 5 years later. Recent graduates have typically held post- doctoral appointments for appreciably- longer periods of time. For example, as many as 33 percent of the 1976-77 cohort remained in postdoctoral status 4 years later, compared with 10 percent of the 1968-69 cohort. Whether or not these biomedical scientists have extended their apprenticeships because of difficulty in finding employment situations or because of other reasons unrelated to the availability of career opportunities cannot be ascertained from the survey data collected. Nevertheless, it is obvious that the prolongation of apprenticeship (for whatever reason) has been a major factor contributing to the expansion of the postdoctoral population in the biomedical sciences. In deriving this fraction it has been estimated that, if there had been no change in average length of postdoctoral apprenticeship, the 1981 postdoctoral population would have included approximately 4,900 biomedical scientists.

61 Postdoctoral Setting Further analysis of the 1973-81 growth trends reveals that much of the postdoctoral expansion has occurred within medical schools. In 1% 1 an estimated 65 percent of the postdoctoral scientists were employed in medical or other health professional schools compared to 56 percent 8 years earlier. Most growth has occurred within the 20 largest research universities, which employed 43 percent of the postdoctoral scientists in 1981 compared with 36 percent in 1973.2 Throughout this period almost all of the postdoctorate were employed full-time, mainly in R and D activities. Approximately 85 percent were involved in federally-sponsored research activities. This evidence supports the impressions of many Committee and panel members who have observed a steadily growing demand for postdoctoral scientists--especially within the major biomedical research institutions. Demographic Characteristics In most respects the demography of the postdoctoral population has changed little during the past 8-year period of growth. Approximately 10 percent of this population, which includes only individuals with doctorates from U.S. universities,3 held foreign citizenship, and about 30 percent were women. (The fraction of women holding postdoctoral appointments has risen slightly in recent years, along with an increase in the fraction of women earning biomedical science doctorates.) As many as 40 percent of the biomedical postdocs received their graduate training in biochemistry, molecular biology, or microbiology, and less than 5 percent held professional doctorates as well as Ph.D. degrees. As might be deduced from the survey data presented in Table 3.2, there has been a significant shift in the academic age distribution of the postdoctoral group. In 1973 an estimated }7 percent had received their Ph.D.s more than 3 years earlier {Figure 3.31; in 1981 27 percent had earned their degrees more than 3 years before. Similarly, the proportion with more than 4 years postgradm te experience has risen from 12 percent in 1973 to nearly 20 percent in 1981. This change may be attributed, of course, to the prolongation of postdoctoral apprenticeships by many recent graduates. 2 These 20 institutions received approximately 38 percent of the federal funding in the biological sciences in FY 1~ 0; for a list of these 20, see National Science Foundation, 1975-83, FY 1980, pp. 79-80. 3 It is estimated that for ergo scientists have comprised approximate- ly one-third of the total population of biomedical investigators hold- ing postdoctoral appointments in U.S. university laboratories.

62 >2 Years Since Ph.D. 50 40 30 '_ 20 z Lit 10 ~ 3 Years Si nce Ph . D . L 31.0 !i ,~ '-J' ;,f''/.~-#' . 'S ant.'` ,,,.,...~.. ,'.'".-' :' ,, ,.. ''rail',' i;'. 'J . 9~`'~. `,,,,';71;''-,r ''.''t ' ;~;', 2' P ~ , 2.~' .,, ,I,., '' ',' ';,' ' ".,'r;', I' "' 'r,;"'`~.: ..',',! '.''.~.,. All<,; 6 ~ , ~ ~ . '2,''i: "_ :':2'';2 ,~ `,j,~, ,'{,:),'l., I: . ~ ! an,-. ~ i;j,~,;' . ant ' ;' 'r ';,', ,.~.'', ~ ry,;,~ . ,. '. J. r .,'`,., ;/~ .'" 'Y.. ;~. t.' ,,;.'2'X c,^..~N 'or,, 'l;".~; .,.,..' J .,, ,~ ;2;~'~".- ·'%~ .,. ~ `'.''' . ;" '. ' t ., ., ,1, ~__,~,~ ,.2'J,l:: .;,rr'-, ;;~,, , .rr . ',i ;,;'j,~,/. "'','',','I',' :~ ."' '-~;',.2'' r',~'r,;~ ., ~ . . '.', .; . ~,.-,'. i 42.1 ,.'-,' : --k, ..'+ , ~rr.., .. ;; -. ..... ~ ;.r.~ -';i: ',~ ,~,,,);>,.. .'~P''''"<J ,~tr~~~ . ...... ;' 2f,'~. . . ." 73 75 77 79 81 FISCAL YEAR 30 10 17.5 27.4 ~_ , . , .,.` . .~ - .~,5~!~ ~r; ~-,,;,~$j~ ,,~ ;~,~,2.-'-,',j l;,i7,,t,l`~`l 73 75 77 79 81 FISCAL YEAR ~ 4 Years Since Ph.D. 30 20 z C~ 10 _ 11.8 r.Y;~,r—' .'~ . ~ . .: J. 9':~' .'. r,';' 7 ~ . ., ,' -~.':'' ~i #<2f~''".. ,,,'`,<} .~, ..... .. ^, , '\ . h,, ., ~,, ,I, ~ 2',~,'t.' {j' ;"' ;"r''..'. "~"'~'.' . ., ./ . 73 75 77 79 81 FISCAL YEAR - FIGURE 3.3 Percent of the postdoctoral population in the biomedical sciences who had earned their doctorates more than 2, 3, or 4 years earlier, 1973-81. See Appendix Table B17. Long-Term Postdoctor~s 1 To investigate further the trend toward longer postdoctoral tenures, a comparison has been made between those who had held their training appointments 4 or more years since receiving their Ph.D.s and other postdoctoral scientists in the biomedical disciplines. Some small, but interesting, differences were found between these two groups--in terms of both their employment settings and their demo- graph~c characteristics. For example, the senior postdoctoral group was comprised of a disproportionately large share of women (35 percent) and foreign nationals (16 percent). Those holding post- doctorals 4 or more years after completion of their graduate education were also less likely than other postdoctoral scientists to be employed in the 20 largest research universities or to be involved in federally-sponsored research. None of these differences, however, are of sufficient magnitude to be considered of major import. Nor is there any evidence to suggest that graduates from the leading doctoral programs were more likely to prolong their postdoctoral apprenticeships than were other biomedical science Ph.D. recipients. This finding seems to confirm the Committee's opinion that the decision to extend postdoctoral training is frequently influenced by personal considera- tions unrelated to an individual's abilities and talents.

63 Career Prospects for Postdoctorals A possible concern with regard to the rapid growth in the postdoctoral population is that there may be a mismatch between the important role these individuals play in the nation's research enterprise and the lack of opportunities they find for subseauen t careers in biomedical research. Previous findings by the Committee suggest anal career opportunities in academic research are becoming scarcer. What effect has this situation had on the careers of individuals completing their postdoctoral training in the biomedical sciences? To address this issue an analysis has been made of the 1975-81 employment situations of biomedical science Ph.D. recipients who had begun postdoctoral training between 5 and 7 years earlier. Results of this analysis are reported in Table 3.3. In interpreting TABLE 3.3 Employment Situations of Biomedical Ph.D. Recipients Who Had Entered Postdoctoral Training Between 5 and 7 Years Earlier, 1975-81 Fiscal Year Employment Situation 1975 1977 1979 1981 .. . . . _ . . .. Major Research Institutionsa N 1,091 1,047 1,130 1,219 To 49.4 47.0 41.7 43.4 Faculty-Rank Positionsb N 876 773 772 763 ~0 39.7 34.7 28.5 27.2 Other Staff PositionsC N 215 274 358 456 To 9.7 12.3 13.2 16.2 Other Universities and Colleges N 526 573 590 622 ~0 23.8 25.7 21.8 22.2 Faculty-Rank Positions N 475 521 480 501 ~0 21.5 23.4 17.7 17.9 Other Staff Positions N 51 52 110 121 ~0 2.3 2.3 4.1 4.3 Nonacademic Employment Sectors N 578 586 957 922 ~0 26.2 26.3 35.3 32.9 Research Positioned N 490 476 734 702 %0 22.2 21.4 27.1 25.1 Other Staff Positions N 88 110 223 220 % 4.0 4.9 8.2 7.8 Unemployed and Seeking Position N 16 23 35 43 % 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.5 TOTAL N 2,208 2,229 2,712 2,806 % 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 aIncludes the 100 academic institutions with the largest total R and D expenditures in the biomedical sciences in FY 1979. bInstructor, Associate Professor, Assistant Professor, or Professor. CIncludes research staff appointments, postdoctorals, and other nontenure track positions in universities and colleges. dIncludes all individuals employed in nonacademic sectors who indicated that they devoted at least one-fourth of their time to R and D activities. SOURCES: National Research Council (1958-82, 1973-82).

64 the findings one must keep in mind that the data do not reflect the career patterns of any individuals who started postdoctoral training since 1976. As can be seen from the data presented, there has been an appreciable decline in the percentages of former postdoctorate holding positions with a faculty rank {Instructor and above)--especially~those in major research institutions. This decline has been offset in part by increases in the percentages of those employed in non-faculty staff positions in academia (including prolonged postdoctoral training appointments). During this 6-year period there have also been increases in the fraction employed outside the academic sector--and many of these scientists were involved in research activities. ~Thus, although the findings indicate that a significantly smaller proportion of biomedical science postdoctorate have moved on to university faculty-rank positions, the proportion continuing to pursue careers in research has not changed appreciably. Future Growth of the Postdoctoral Population We appear to be approaching a turning point in the size of the postdoctoral population. It seems probable that the number of individuals in this cadre will stabilize in the next few years. Whether it does or not will depend primarily on how many graduates decide to enter postdoctoral training in universities and their average length of apprenticeship. As already mentioned, the rapid postdoctoral expansion of the past occurred during a period when doctoral awards grew at an annual rate of only 1 percent--from 3,520 in FY 1973 to 3,951 in FY 1982. This modest increase in doctorates followed a period of sizeable growth in the numbers of students enrolling in the biomedical sciences. Since 1975, however, first-year graduate enrollments have dropped 20 percent as shown in Figure 3.4. It seems highly probable that this decline will have a corresponding effect on the number of doctoral awards in the next several years, which in turn will reduce the number of new entrants to the postdoctoral population. For purposes of illustration, projections have been made of the numbers of doctoral awards during the 1982-87 period and the numbers of young investigators expected to enter the postdoctoral population in academia. It is assumed on the basis of data from the Doctorate Records File that 6-1/2 years elapse between the time a student initially enrolls in graduate school and the date of completion of the doctoral program. In projecting entrants to the postdoctoral pool, two alternatives have been considered: (a) the fraction of graduates opting for postdoctoral training in universities will remain at the current level (0.563; or (b) this fraction will increase to 0.63 by 1987. The results of these projections are displayed in Figure 3.4. It should be noted that although first-year enrollments dropped significantly between fall 1975 and fall 1976, the number of doctoral awards 6 years later has continued to increase through FY 1982. Nevertheless, in the next 5 years or so we anticipate a significant reduction in Ph.D. production from 3,951 (FY 1982) to approximately

65 9,DOCI 8,000 7.000 6 Boa 5,000 ,000 a' as: z: 3, Coo 2,000 1,000 |.~. 8,674 ( 1975-76) He E n ro l i me n ts47, 0 3 9 ( 19 80 -81 ) ~ Granting Departments in the Biomedica ~J / Sciences (advanced six and one-half years) ~5,683 (1966-67) ,`3,520 Ph. . D . Awards i n the Bi omedi Cal Sci ences, / `_ 3, 170 ~ ~--__~ ~ (Projected Ph. D. Awards 2 ,000 (b) 1 555 ~~: (:roj ected New Entra nts 1.780 ( a ) New Entrants to Academic Postdoctorals O 1.11 1 ~ I J ~ (a) .56 of Ph.D. awards ( b ) .63 of Ph . D . awards I '.1 1 1 1 1 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 FISCAL YEAR FIGURE 3.4 First-year graduate enrollments in the biomedical sciences, projected Ph.D. awards, and new entrants to academic postdoctorals, 1973-87. See Appendix Tables B2 and B3. 3,200 biomedical scientists. It is also projected that the number of new entrants to the postdoctoral population in academia will decline from 2,150 scientists (FY 1~ 0) to somewhere between 1,790 and 2,040 individuals--depending on the proportion of Ph.D. recipients opting to take academic postdoctorals. Some caveats are in order with regard to these projections. Whether or not a 20 percent decline in Ph.D. awards occurs will depend on factors such as the availability of financial support for graduate study, the average time it takes students to complete work for their doctorates, and other factors affecting the "completion rater for first-year graduate students in the biomedical sciences. If past

66 trends continue and a decreasing fraction of the graduate students currently enrolled complete work for the Ph.D., the decline in doctoral awards may be greater than projected. On the other hand, even if the number of postdoctoral entrants is greatly reduced, the total size of the postdoctoral population may not decrease if a substantial portion stays in this setting longer. CAREER OUTCOMES OF FORMER NIH PREDOCTORAL TRAINEES AND FELLOWS The Committee has undertaken a study to examine the career outcomes of biomedical scientists who had received NTH predoctoral training grant or fellowship support in the past 15 years. The primary intent of the study is to Identify the kinds of research positions available to and held by individuals completing [NIH training] programs. (Section 473.b.3 of the National Research Service Awards Act of 1974) and to compare the findings with the career outcomes of other biomedical science students who had not received NIH predoctoral training grant or fellowship support. Results of this comparison are summarized here and will be presented in detail in a separate report. (An analogous study of former NIH postdoctoral trainees and fellows is planned.) The analyses undertaken in this study focus on the early career outcomes of more than 32,000 individuals receiving at least 9 months of predoctoral (pre-Ph.D.) training grant or fellowship support from the NIH during FY 1967-80. Five general factors were considered: 5. 1. attainment of the research doctorate 2. postdoctoral research training experience 3. early career employment 4. demonstrated interest and success in obtaining federal support for research record of publication. Comparisons were made with two other groups of biomedical science Ph.D. recipients. Group I includes biomedical science Ph.D.s who had not received at least 9 months of NTH predoctoral training grant or fellowship support but who had been in programs that had some NIH predoctoral training grant funding. Group lI includes biomedical science Ph.D.s who had been in programs that had no NIH predoctoral training grant funding. The distinction between the two comparison groups is important. Individuals in Group I, while not recipients of NIH predoctoral stipends, should have benefited from having been graduate students in programs that had NIH training grant support since those grants are made on the basis of program quality. Summarized below are highlights of the comparisons and key findings: Since 1972 the number of NIH predoctoral awards made each year has declined 40 percent, and the

67 number of new awards to individuals dropped by more than 50 percent--during a period when total Ph.D. degrees granted annually in the biomedical sciences was relatively stable. The median length of time an individual received NIH predoctoral support declined from 34 to 24 months. . . . Nearly 70 percent of the NIH predoctorals have earned their Ph.D. degrees, compared with an estimated overall completion rate for graduate students in the biomedical sciences of less than 60 percent. Individuals receiving training grant or fellowship support for longer per lads wer e significantly more likely to complete their doctoral training. NIH trainees typically earned their doctorates in shorter periods of time than did other biomedical science Ph.D.s in Groups I or II. As the number of NIH predoctoral training awards diminished during the FY 1972-80 period,-an increasingly larger share of them went to graduate students enrolled in universities with distinguished reputations in the biomedical sciences. Former NIH trainees were nearly 30 percent more likely than other biomedical science Ph.D. recipients to pursue postdoctoral research training, and 40 percent more likely to obtain NIH postdoctoral training Grant or fellowship support. . _ _ A ~ ~ ,= In terms of their employment situations, former NIH predoctoral trainees did not differ markedly from biomedical scientists in comparison Group I. Both were more likely than persons in Group II to obtain faculty appointments in major research institutions and to be involved in research-related activities. Former NIH predoctoral trainees have been 1-1/2 times more likely than other biomedical Ph.D.s to apply for an NIH research grant, and almost twice as likely to obtain one. They received appreci- ably higher priority scores on their research grant applications than did individual ~ in either comparison Group I or Group II.

68 In interpreting these differences in performance between the comparison groups and former NIH awarders, one must keep in mind that NIH trainees and fellows have been selected on the basis of criteria believed to reflect their abilities and interests in biomedical research. Consequently, NIH predoctorals should a priori have stronger records of achievements. The selection and support of these individuals is the true purpose of the program. The relative contributions of the selection process and the research-training they received cannot be ascertained from this analysis. Nevertheless, the findings consistently indicate that former NIH predoctorals have been successful in obtaining the Ph.D. degree and developing careers as independent investigators in biomedical research. Although the observed differences among groups are not startling, the NIH trainees and fellows have out performed Group lI on measures pertaining to all five criteria and did significantly better than Group I on measures pertaining to four of the five criteria. On this basis the Committee concludes that the NIH predoctoral training programs have most effectively facilitated the development of well-quaL if fed biomedical research personnel. THE MARKET OUTLOOK Having discussed the current market situation and given consideration to the issues surrounding predoctoral and postdoctoral training in the basic biomedical sciences, we turn now to an assessment of the near-term and long-term employment outlook for scientists in this area. Short-Term Projections of Academic Demand Since the academic sector has been and will probably continue to be the main focal point for basic biomedical research, we have paid particular attention to the analysis of this sector. Our approach has been first to compile a data bank covering the past 20 years of enrollments, employment, and R and D funding at colleges and universi- ties. Then we have developed a model of academic demand and used the data bank to estimate the parameters of the model. Finally, we use the model to make short-term projections of academic demand that in turn provide a quantitative basis for the Committee's recommendations. The Mode} of Academic Demand for Biomedical Ph.D.s Academic demand for bioscientists is created by both expansion of faculty size and attrition due to death, retirement, and movement from academic to nonacademic positions. In the biomedical area, faculty size is assumed to be determined

69 by two principal factors, enrollments and R and D funding. Attrition in the short term is assumed to be a constant percentage of faculty size, with the appropriate percentage being estimated from the most recent data. ~ Our projections of faculty size are based on a model in which the faculty/student ratio (F/S) is assumed to be primarily determined by total R and D expenditures in colleges and universities. That such a relationship exists in the biomedical science fields is clearly evident in the data compiled for the 1962-80 per iod (Figure 3.53. 0.08~ 3 ~ 0.07 To - cat a Lot ~ 0.06 - ~ 0.05 _I cat Ha:. to ~4 m 0.04 _ '',: 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 BIOMEDICAL SCIENCE R & D EXPENDITURES IN COLLEGES AND UNIVERSITIES (1972 $, mil 1 ions) FIGURE 3.5 Biomedical science Ph.D. faculty/student ratio (F/WS) vs. biomedical science R & D expenditures in colleges and universities (D). The F/S ratio is defined as academically employed bioscience Ph.D.s relative to bioscience enrollments (WS). WS is a 4-year weighted average of enrollments, i.e., (WS)t = 1/6(St + 2St 1 + 2St 2 + St 3) where St = bioscience graduate and estimated undergraduate enrollments in year t. D is defined as a 3-year weighted average of R & D expenditures; Dt = 1/4(Rt + 2Rt 1 + Rt 2~. Solid line represents a growth cruve of the form Y = (K-C)exp(-ea~bX)+C fitted to the data for 1962-80. Broken lines represent 95% confidence limits around the esti- mated cube. See Appendix Tables B6 and B9.

70 When the F/S ratio--defined as the number of bioscience Ph.D.s employed in colleges and universities (excluding postdoctorals} relative to a 4-year weighted average of total graduate and undergraduate enrollment in bioscience fields--is shown in relation to a 3-year-we~ghted average of bioscience R and D expenditures (Appendix Table B9), the points exhibit a pattern suggestive of a constrained growth curve.4 The F/S ratio grew slowly at low levels of R and D expenditures, then accelerated, and now appears to be growing less rapidly at higher expenditure levels. - For the past few years we have been using a Gompertz type growth function to model these data. The Gompertz function assumes that the percentage change in F/S decreases exponentially with R and D expenditures. It takes the following mathematical form:5 F/WS = (R-C)exp(-ea bM)+C where: F = Ph.D.s employed by academic institutions in ~ bioscience fields (excluding postdoctoral trainees) WS = 4-yr. weighted average of enrollments, i.e., WSt=1/6{St ~ 2St-1 + 2St-2 + St-3} - M = 3-yr. weighted average of R and D expenditures K = asymptote: i.e., F/S ~ R as M ~ inf. C = scaling constant a, b = parameters To use the model for projecting academic demand, it is necessary to make assumptions about the future behavior of the driving elements in the model--enrollments and R and D funding. 4 The exclusion of postdoctorate from the numerator of the F/S ratio is somewhat arbitrary. We recognize that postdoctorate work on research projects and derive some support from R and D funds. On the other hand, the postdoctoral appointment is primarily a training period and separate programs and sources of support are available to support that training. s Fitting this function to the data from 1962-80, we get the follow- ~ng estimate for the parameters: R = 0.09, C = 0.042S, a = 2.603, b = 0.00214. The fitted curve is asymptotic to F/S = 0.09 and has an inflection point at M = a/b = 1217 ($, millions}. Parameter estimates were derived by a least-squares regression procedure which yields an R2 of 0.971 with 12 observations. R2--the coefficient of determination--must lie between 0 and ~ and measures how well the assumed function fits the data, with R2 = 1 representing a perfect fit. The dotted lines in Figure 3.5 represent the 95 percent confidence limits on the estimated curve.

71 Assumptions: lo Total bioscience graduate and undergradm te enrollments are expected to show no growth between 1980 {the latest year for which data are available) and 1~8. The upper and lower limits on the expected growth rate are +2 percent per year and -2 percent per year, respectively (see Figure 3 o6) 800 700 ~600 , 500 o 4 - ,~ 400 z O 300 - z Lo 200 100 Actual ~~~~~~~~ Prop ected All School s ~` O I I. ~ · . , 60 62 64 66 68 i ESt _te__-~~~ 8_9--~~ Mi ddl e Est. (OX/yr. ) , Publ ic School s I tempt ( ~~--_ '~Private Schools 1 · 70 72 74 76 FISCAL YEAR 78 80 82 84 86 88 FIGURE 3.6 Total biomedical science undergraduate and graduate enrollments in colleges and universities, by control of institution, 1960-80, with projections to 1988. See Appendix Table B1.

72 Biomedical science R and D expenditures at colleges and universities are expected to grow at 2 percent per year after adjusting for price changes between 1980 and 1988. The upper and lower flints are assumed to be 4 percent per year and zero,-respectively {see Figure 3.71.6 2,500 2,000 O 1,500 J J _4 1,000 500 F_ Actual Proj ected All Schools _ ~ Low Estimate (O,/yr.) _ _ Publ i c School s School s 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 FISCAL YEAR Middle Est. (2~/yr. ) 76 78 80 82- . . ~ 84 86 88 FIGURE 3.7 Biomedical science R & D expenditures in colleges and universities, by control of institution, 1960-80, with projections to 1988 (1972 $, millions). See Appendix Table B9. Piojectionsto 1988 Given the model and the assumptions about future patterns of R and D expenditures and enrollments, we may now make projections of academic demand for bioscience Ph.D.s. It has been the Committee's practice to make projections of academic demand for about 5 years ahead of its report--so our projections this year go through 1988 as shown in Figure 3.8 and Table 3.4. 6 The definition of this funding variable has been changed slightly in this report. In previous years we have defined it as life science R and D expenditures, which includes agriculture. This year we have redefined it to exclude agriculture and have called it biomedical science" expenditures, which seems to be more directly relevant to the fields with which we are concerned.

73 55: SOt 45t 40: 35 In ° 30 4~ - > 25 o ~ 20 CY - 15 10 - Actual P rejected _ Publ i c All School saw / School At\;,"' ~yr.) / for £"~` Pri vate School sly D_— 60 6Z 64 66 Be 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 FISCAL YEAR FIGURE 3.8 Ph.D.s employed in the biomedical sciences at colleges and universities, by control of institution, 1960-81, with projections to 1988. See Appendix Table BS. The three assumptions about enrollment growth together with the three assumptions about R and D expenditures give nine combinations of assumptions to be used as input to the model. These are shown in Table 3.4 along with the resulting projections of academic demand due to expansion and attrition of faculty. Under the most optimistic assumptions, bioscience R and D expenditures at academic institutions would grow by 4 percent per year through 1988 (assumption I of Table 3.4), driving the F/WS ratio to 0.080. The 95 percent confidence limits on this estimate are 0.077 and 0.083, respectively. Since the most optimistic assumptions attempt to define an upper 1~ t on our projections, we use the upper 95 percent confidence limit on the F/WS ratio (0.083) as the most optimistic estimate. We project academic demand by using the most optimistic estimate of enrollment growth--2 percent per year (assumption A in Table 3.4--together with the estimated F/WS ratio of 0.083. This produces an upper estimate of faculty size of 48,500 bioscience Ph.D.s in 1988, for a faculty growth rate of 4.1 percent per year. About 1,680 positions per year would be created by faculty expansion, 420 per year

74 TABLE 3.4 Projected Growth in Biomedical Science Ph.D. Faculty' 1980-88' Based on Projections of Enrollment, and R and D Expenditurese . . Assumptions about Real R and D Expenditures (in constant 1972 dollarsb) in the Biomedical Sciences in Assumptions about Colleges and Universities ($1.4 billion in 1980) Graduate and Undergraduate I II III Enrollments in the Will remain at Biomedical Sciences and Will grow at Will grow at current level Medical and Dental Schools 4~O/yr. to $2.0 2~O/yr. to $1.7 ($1.4 billion) (516,000 students in 1980) billion in 1988 billion in 1988 through 1988 A. Will grow at 2~0/yr., Expected size of biomedical reaching 604,000 Ph.D. faculty (F) in 1988 48,500 43,800 38,300 students by 1988 Annual growth rate in F from 1980 to 1988 4.1% 2.8% 1.1% Average annual increment due to faculty expansion 1,680 1,090 410 Annual replacement needs due to:C death and retirement 420 390 370 other attrition 1,250 1,180 1,100 . Expected number of academic positions to become available for biomedical Ph.D.s 3,350 2,660 1,880 B. Will show essentially Expected size of biomedical no growth from 1980- Ph.D. faculty(F) in 1988 42,700 38,500 33,700 88, remaining at Annual growth rate in F from 516,000 students 1980 to 1988 2.5% 1.2% -0.5% Average annual increment due to faculty expansion 940 430 -170 Annual replacement needs due to:C death and retirement 390 370 340 other attrition 1,170 1,100 1,030 Expected number of academic positions to become available annually for biomedical Ph.D.s 2,500 1,900 1,200 C. Will decline by 2~0/yr. Expected size of biomedical to439,000 students Ph.D. faculty(F) in 1988 37,400 33,800 29,600 by 1988 Annual growth rate in F from 1980 to 1988 0.8% -0.5% -2.1% Average annual increment due to faculty expansion 290 -160 -690 Annual replacement needs due to:C death and retirement 360 340 320 other attrition 1,090 1,030 970 Expected number of academic positions to become available annually for biomedical Ph.D.s 1,740 1,210 600 ; aFaculty is defined in this table as all academically employed Ph.D.s in biomedical fibrin RYf~ll~flino r~r~~tA~ ^] ~ ;_~A~ These projections are based on the following relationship: (F/WS)t = 0.0475 [exp ( - xp (2.603 - 0.002138M)] + 0.0425, where F = faculty;WS = weighted average of last 4 years of enrollments, i.e., (WS)t = 1/6(St + 2St 1 + 2St 2 + St 3), where S = total graduate and undergraduate enrollments in biomedical fields; M = weighted average of last 3 years of biomedical science R and D expenditures in colleges and uni- versities, i e;, Mt = 1/4(Rt + 2Rt 1 + Rt 2). See Appendix Tables B1, B6, and B9. bDeflated by the Implicit GNP Price Deflator, 1972 = 100.0. See Appendix Table B7. CBased on an estimated replacement rate of 1.0% annually due to death and retirement, and 3.0% annually due to other attrition from academic positions. These estimates were derived from the National Research Council (1973-82). ~~~~~~ ~ 'I AVER—v—~v~a~ air. IN

75 would be generated by attrition due to death and retirement, and 1,250 per year would be generated by other attrition. The total number of academic positions that would become available each year under these high growth conditions is 3,350. Under the middle or best-guess assumptions (II-B in Table 3.4), bioscience R and D expenditures at academic institutions would grow by 2 percent per year through 1988--yielding an F/WS ratio of 0.075--and bioscience enrollments would remain at 1980 levels. The best estimate of bioscience Ph.D. faculty size under these assumptions Is 38,500, an increase of 430 positions or 1.2 percent per year over the 1980 level. Attrition would add another 1,470 positions to give a total annual academic demand of about 1,900. Under the low growth assumptions (III-C in Table 3.4), bioscience R and D expenditures at academic institutions would remain at the 1980 level through 1988 and consequently the bioscience F/WS ratio would also remain at the 1980 level of 0 .068 . The 95 percent confidence limits on this estimate are 0.065-0.071. We use the lower limit of 0 .065 to represent the most pessimistic estimate of F/WS . Bioscience enrollment would decline by 2 percent per year yielding a Ph.D. faculty size in 1988 of 29,600. That represents a drop of 690 positions per year, but attrition would add 1,290, for a net demand of 600 per year. Estimating Postcloctoral Support Levels Under NRSA Programs The final step in our quantitative analysis of the market is to attempt to translate the projections of academic demand into recommended levels of postdoctoral training under NRSA programs. This step requires certain additional assumptions about how the system has functioned in recent years with regard to postdoctoral training and its sources of support. The features of the system which must be considered in addition to the projections of faculty growth are as follows: 2 1. contributions to academic demand generated by the need to reduce budgeted vacancies in basic science depart- ments of medical schools '. the number of accessions to faculty positions who have (or should have) research training 3. the appropr late length of the research training period 4. the proportion of individuals in the research training pipeline who aspire to academic careers the proportion of support to the total pool of post- doctoral research trainees that should be provided by federal government. In the absence of complete knowledge of the system, we must make some additional assumptions about the features--first presented in the Committee's 1~ 1 Report--in order to provide a quantitative basis for the recommendations.

76 Using the projections of academic demand derived in Table 3.4 and the same set of conditions specified in the 1981 Report, we calculate in-Table 3.5 the range of basic biomedical science postdoctoral trainees that should be supported by NRSA programs under the specified conditions. ; Line 1 of Table 3.5 is a summary of the projections of academic demand for the extreme cases and the best-guess estimate derived in Table 3.4. Line 2 is an estimate of the demand generated by the need to reduce budgeted vacancies in basic science departments of medical schools. Line 3 shows the total annual demand for bioscience Ph.D.s in the academic sector under each set of conditions. Total annual academic TABLE 3.5 Estimated Number of Basic Biomedical Science Postdoctoral Trainees Needed to Meet Expected Academic Demand Through 1988 Under Vanous Conditions Projected Through 1988 High Middle Estimate Estimate 1,900 430 370 1,100 Low Estimate Annual Average 1979-81 2,797 . 1,404 325 1,068 1. Academic demand for biomedical Ph.D.s—annual average: a. due to expansion of faculty b. due to death and retirements c. due to other attritionb 2. Demand created by unfilled positionsC 3,350 ~ : 1,680 420 1,250 50 600 -690 320 970 50 50 3. Total annual accessions 3,400 1,950 650 2,797 4. Total accessions with postdoctoral research training- annual average (assuming 70% of all accessions have postdoctoral research training) 5. Size of biomedical postdoctoral pool-annual average Size needed to meet academic demand assuming a 3-yr. training period and portion of trainees seeking academic positions is: a. 60% b. 70% 6. Annual number of biomedical postdoctoral trainees to be supported under NRSA programs: a. if 40% of pool is supported under NRSA b. if 50% of pool is supported under NRSA 2,380 1,360 450 1,715d 7,800 11,900 6,800 2,250 10,200 5,830 1,930 4,0804,760 2,330-2,720 770-900 5,100-5,950 2,915-3,400 965-1,125 2,869 aAssumes an attrition rate due to death and retirement of 1.0~o per year. In the 1990s, this rate is likely to increase substantially. See Figure 3.12 in this chapter. bAssumes an attrition rate due to other causes of 3.0 per year. CIn 1981 there were about 650 budgeted vacancies in basic science departments of medical schools. The demand for basic biomedical science faculty generated by the need to reduce the number of unfilled positions is about 50 per year through 1988. dAssumes that 70% of the 1979-81 Ph.D. cohorts took a postdoctoral appointment before taking an academic position. This estimate is based on data from the National Research Council (1958-82, 1973-82). SOURCE:: Table 3.4.

77 demand is expected to be between 650 and 3,400 positions with a best-guess of about 1,950 positions. Line 4 shows the number of academic positions to be filled by individuals with postdoctoral research training experience. With the help of datable the inflows and outflows from academic employment in the biosciences between 1979 and 1981 shown in Table 3.6, we estimate that 70 percent of all vacancies will be filled by former postdoctoral trainees. In the best-guess case, this number is estimated to be 1,360. TABLE 3.6 Inflows and Outflows from Academic Employment for Biomedical Science Ph.D.s, 1979-81 I. Average Annual Attrition from Academic Employment in the Biomedical Sciences 1. Total biomedical Ph.D.s employed in academia in 1979: 3 3 ,6 8 7 A, ~ ~ ~ G— 2. Leaving academic employment between 1979 and 1981 in the biomedical sciences to: % of Academic N Employment a. nonacademic sectors 4~t 819 2.4 b. postdoctoral appointments ' ~~' 138 0.4 ~ ~ c. death and retirement 432 325 1.0 I r d. unemployed tic ' tr. 1 11 0.3 e. total attrition A; ~ 1,393 4.1 ';~ ~ rig I'. Average Annual Accessions to Academic Employment in the Biomedical Sciences 1. Total biomedical Ph.D.s employed in academia in 1981: 36,497 2. Entering academic employment between 1979 and 1981 in the biomedical sciences from: - % of Total N Accessions a. nonacademic sectors _~. . 531 19.0 b. postdoctoral appointments ~ I c;= 1,299 46.4 c. other fieldsa 169~ 6.0 d. unemployed \ ~ ~ 200 ~ 7.2 ~ ; e. Ph.D. recipients 1979-81b 6~5 598 21.4 ~ ~ 'N f. total annual accessions 2,797 it's 100.0 ~ ~ :. A ~ . . .. ... III. Balancing: 1979 academic employment 33,687 - 2( 1 ,39 3) + 2(2,797) = 36,49S c - attrition + accessions = 1981 academic employment aThese individuals were all academically employed in 1979 and 1981. The number shown represents the estimated net inflow to biomedical fields from other fields. bIt is estimated that 70~o of these new Ph.D. cohorts took a postdoctoral appointment before taking an academic position. CDoes not agree with line II.1 because of rounding. SOURCE: National Research Council (1973-82). ,....

78 Line 5-indicates the size of the biomedical postdoctoral pool ~- required to supply the necessary number of individunq.. with postdoctoral training under certain assumptions about the length of the postdoctoral training period and the proportion of the pool seeking academic employment. Currently, bioscience Ph.D.s are typically spending about 3 years in postdoctoral appointments, up from 2 years in the early 1970s. As stated earlier in this chapter, we don't know whether this lengthening of postdoctoral training is due to difficulties in finding more permanent employment, the complexity of the training curriculum, or other reasons. We intend to examine this important issue in more detail. If the appropriate length of postdoctoral training is assumed to be 3 years, then the pool size needed to produce 1,360 trained scientists each year is 3 times 1,360 or 4,080. If 70 percent of the trainees seek academic appointments after completing their training, then the necessary pool size must be 6,800. Line 6 shows the estimated number of biomedical science postdoctoral trainees that should be supported annually by NRSA programs under different assumptions about the proportion of total support provided by that source. The resulting range is between 700 under the lowest set of assumptions, and 5,950 under the highest set. The best-guess assumptions yield a range of 2,330-3,400 postdoctoral trainees. Demand Outside the Academic Sector For most of the 1970s, employment of biomedical science Ph.D.s in the nonacademic sector has been growing faster than within the academic sector. This trend appears to have accelerated in the last few years. The industrial sector is the second largest employer of biomedical scientists next to academia, employing almost 15 percent of the 69,000 biomedical Ph.D.s in the labor force. The growth rate in the industrial sector has been 8 percent per year since 1973 versus 5 percent per year in the academic sector. Of course, chemical and drug manufacturers employ most of the biomedical Ph.D.s within the business sector. But employment in the new biotechnology industry appears to be growing quite rapidly. As shown in the last line of Table 3.7, the number of biomedical science Ph.D.s employed in the nonclassifiable group of companies has been growing by 25 percent per year since 1973. Many of these are biotechnology firms that are so new or so small that their Standard Industrial Classification code could not be determined. But close examination of this group reveals that many are indeed recently formed firms engaged in biotechnology R and D. The biomedical field in general, and the new biotechnology in particular, are currently the subjects of intense scrutiny by government, academia, and business groups as these fast-moving fields appear on the verge of producing important practical developments. Just in the past 5 years, a whole industry of some 200-300 firms has sprung up around the belief that recently developed knowledge concerning the manipulation of genes can be commercialized success- fully. This proposition has yet to be proven on any large scale, but

1 79 TABLE 3.7 Ph.D.s Employed by Business and Industry in the Biomedical Sciences, 1973-81 Fiscal Year 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1973-81 TOTAL BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY 5,285 6,645 6,918 8,461 9,957- 8.2% Annual Annual Growth Growth Rate Rate 1979-8 1 8.5% Average Annual Change 1973-8 1 6,645 6,9 1 8 8,46 1 9,957 - 584 Agriculture,Forestry&Fish. 76 67 42 66 50 -5.1% -13.0% -3 Mining 0 0 5 75 45 - 22.5% 6 Construction 6 7 27 64 32 23.3% -29.3% 3 Manufacturing 4,408 5,460 5,714 6,149 7,032 6.0% 6.9% 328 Chemical and drugs 2,814 3,69S 3,988 4,105 4,739 6.7% 7.4~O 241 Petroleum refining 138 129 94 255 207 5.2% -9.9 9 Medical instruments 182 267 303 295 429 11.370 20.6~o 31 Other 1,274 1,369 ' 1,329 1,494 1,657 3.3~O 5.3~O 48 Transport., Communication, Elec., Gas & San. Services 39 69 71 159 114 14.35to -15.3~c 9 Wholesale & Retail Trade 37 110 61 70 21 -6.8% -45.2% -2 Chemical and drugs 5 31 14 15 0 - - -1 Other 32 79 47 55 21 -5.1% -38.2% - -1 Finance,Insur.&RealEstate 52 50 25 36 122 11.2~o 84 loo 9 Services 388 413 389 534 814 9.7~O 23.5% 53 Medical 169 120 113 283 179 0.7% -20.5% 1 Other 219 293 276 251 635 14.2% 59.1% 52 Biotechnologya n/a n/a n/a 153 262 n/a 30~9% 55 (1979-81) Nonclassifiable Companies 279 469 584 1,155 1,465 23.0~o 12.6% 148 aThese are biomedical science Ph.D.s employed by firms that could be identified as being in Me biotechnology industry according to avail- able directories for the industry. The numbers shown probably understate the true numbers employed by biotechnology fumes. since the directories are not all-inclusive. SOURCE: National Research Council (1973-82). many industr ial f irms are betting huge sums that commercially prof itable products will emerge . In this highly technical and competitive race, several f irms have moved to insure themselves of quick access to the latest developments by investing in joint ventures with academic institutions. Hoechst AG, a German pharmaceutical house, has agreed to fund a new department of molecular biology at Massachusetts General Hospital (affiliated with Harvard Medical School) at a cost of $70 million or more over the next 10 years. AlSo at Harvard, a new genetics department will be supported by a $6 million grant from E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co. Monsanto has committed $23.5 million over ~ years to Washington University in St. Louis for research on proteins and peptides, and another $4 million to Rockefeller University for research on the structure and regulation of plant genes in photosynthesis. Even some firms not involved with biomedical research are being attracted by the potential payoff to biotechnology. Cornell University recently announced the establishment of a new biotechnology institute with support from Union Carbide, Eastman Kodak, and Corning Glass (Walsh, 19B3~. Each firm has pledged up to $2.5 million annually for the next 6 years. In addition to the industry-university relationships, many industr ial f irms are enter ing into joint ventures with other f irms . In most cases, a large firm provides financial support to a smaller one in return for technical expertise. Investments by Standard Oil in Cetus, Texaco in Applied Molecular Genetics, and Fluor in Genentech are examples. . .

80 Thus, there is ample evidence that significant funds are being invested in various aspects of biomedical research by industrial firms both here and abroad. The main point of concern in this report is whether or not an adequate supply of properly trained biomedical scientists will be available to meet the demand expected to be generated outside the academic sector. It seems clear that while industry may provide an increasing share of employment opportunities for biomedical scientists, the university s will still be counted on to provide most of the training. Surveyor Biotechnology Firms To learn more about the impact of the new biotechnology on The labor market for biomedical scientists, this Committee and the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment collaborated on a survey of the biotechnology industry. Some 265 firms who could be identified as being engaged in some aspect of biotechnology using recently developed techniques were sent a questionnaire (see Appendix E) in February 1983. Usable responses were received from 138 firms for a response rate of 52 percent. Questions were asked about the firm's biotechnology applications, the kinds of specialists being sought, and immediate plans for hiring. Growth of the Industry If there is any doubt that this is a very.young industry, it should be dispelled by the data in Figure 3.9. Almost 80 percent of the firms initiated research and development activities related to the new biotechnology since 1978. There was continual growth in the 30 co He I_ '3 25 He to ~ 20 _I Go co an Lo cat 15 10 Before 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 1970 YEAR STARTED IN BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY FIGURE 3.9 Percentage distribution of the year of firms' initiation of operations in biotechnology industry. See Appendix Table Bib.

8 1 number of respondent firms starting operations from 1977 through . 1981. The number of start-ups declined somewhat in 1982, which might be due partly to the recession and partly to the consolidation and concentration that usual ly occurs after the rapid emergence of many small firms. . The biotechnology industry is.so new that it is quite difficult to find good data about the total number of firms operating in Strand the total number of scientists employed.. Several directories exist which provide lists of biotechnology firms, but there are large variations among them. Until further investigation can be made of the.validity of these directories, we cannot make an accurate estimate of the total employment in the industry. However, our survey results can provide some information on the number of scientists per firm and the specialties in which.they are employed. The majority of firms responding to our survey employed less than 10 biomedical science Ph.D.s. But there wer.e..a few who reported a substantial number of Ph.D.s--the maximum was over 90. The percentage distribution of the number of biomedical Ph.D.s per firm is presented in Figure 3.10. On average, the number of biomedical Ph.D.s per firm reported by the respondents was almost 12. ~ . .+ 50 45 ., 40 ~5 30 25 20 15 10 o Ma 0 1- 6- 11- 16- 21- 26- 31- 36- over 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 40 NUMBER OF PH . D. S PER PI RM . . . . FIGURE 3.10 Distribution of the number of biomedical Ph.D.s per firm in the biotechnology industry. See Appendix Table B16.

82 Shortages of Specialists Almost one-third of the respondents said they had experienced shortages of Ph.D.s in one or more specialties. Three specialties were most often cited as having shortages--bioprocess engineering, recombinant DNA/molecular genetics, and gene synthesis. Comments from the respondents reveal how they feel about current and anticipated personnel shortages. Some examples are as follows: Cat the present time, we perceive that there is a def inite shortage of well-trained bioprocess engineer s and plant molecular biologists who have worked with microorganisms desirable for use in industr ial fermentation such as Bacillus, Streptococcus, and even, to some extent, Yeast.. A medium size R and D firm involved in animal and plant agr iculture, and human vaccine applications. Major shortages will exist in fermentation bioengineering in the next 2-5 years. ~ A large established manufacturer with a smaL 1 R and D group involved in human diagnostics . people with strong background in recombinant tech- nology and bus iness, or recombinant technology and law (good patent people) are very rare at the moment.. An average s ize R and D f irm involved in pharmaceutical s and human diagnostic applications . owe have been successful in hiring the people we need. Hence we do not feel a shortage of candidates. Most of the projected hiring will be from outside our company--new graduates and some experienced people.. A large, establ ished chemical manufacturer . .... we anticipate that major expansion will occur in several areas as the needs of the company change: (a) hybridoma/monoclonal antibody technology applicable to the diagnostics market, b) microbial production ~ fermentation) technology (e.g., industr ial microbiology, bioprocess engineer ing, ~ and associated areas relevant to product quality assurance (e .g., pharmacology , toxicology) . ~ A relatively large biotechnology f irm engaged in f ine chemicals, pharmaceu- t icals, human d iagnostics, and agricultural applications.

83 "Personnel shortages at this point are due more to a lack of applicable experience than they are to academic training. The one specialty where there are shortages both academics ly and experientially is Biochemical Engineering. Furthermore, as biotech- nology firms become more fully integrated, there will be an increased need for skilled technical support people; particularly in process development and manufacturing. This points out a clear need to continue our efforts toward improving university understanding of, and articulation with, developing biotechnology firms throughout the United States.. A large biotechnology firm with interests in fine chem~c~ s and pharmaceutical applications. Recombinant DNA/molecular genetics is currently the dominant specialty in the industry--more than 22 percent of all Ph.D.s are employed in this category (Table 3.8~. General biochemistry, containing almost 12 percent of the Ph.D.s, is the second largest. TABLE 3.8 Biomedical Ph.D.s Employed by Biotechnology Firms Responding to Survey Employment Specialties (listed in order of number of Ph.D.s employed) 1. Recombinant DNA/Molecular Genetics 2. Biochemistry, General 3. Hybridomas/Monoclonal Antibodies 4. Microbiology, General 5. Enzymology/Immobilized Systems 6. Bioprocess Engineering 7. Industrial Microbiology 8. Other Biotechnology Specialties 9. Cell Culture 10. Analytic Biochemistry 1 1. Pharmacology 12. Plant Molecular Biology 1 3. Toxicology 14. Cell Biology/Physiology 15. Gene Synthesis 16. Classical Genetics 17. Plant Biology Physiology 18. Cell Fusion 1 9. Physiology 20. Animal Reproduction/Embryotransplantation 2 TOTAL Ph.D.s Employed by 138 Responding Firms N Increase Expected in 18 Months 52.1 16.5 39.4 22.3 26.4 56.3 58.1 20.6 45.3 26.0 28.3 75.0 14.3 28.6 75.8 25.0 66.7 41.7 0.0 200.0 Shortages Indicated by Respondentsa N ~ 303 158 104 94 91 80 74 63 53 50 46 40 35 35 33 28 27 12 12 22.6 11.8 7.8 7.0 6.8 6.0 5.5 4.7 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.1 2.0 0.9 0.9 0.1 1,340 100.0 12.3 3.8 7.5 2.8 6.6 14.2 6.6 4.7 5.7 4.7 0.9 6.6 1.9 3.8 10.4 0.9 1.9 2.8 0.0 2 1.9 39.0 107 100.0 aEach respondent could indicate multiple shortage categories. Therefore, the number of responses in this column total more than the 50 firms reporting a shortage. 13 15 6 6 11 o SOURCE: Committee/OTA Survey of Biotechnology Firms (1983).

84 Substantial growth in the employment of biomedical scientists by these firms can be expected for';the next year or two. The respondents expect to increase their employment of~biomedical Ph.D.s by 39 percent over the next 18 months. If the employers' plans hold up--they are often overly optimistic--some specialties will show dramatic increases in demand. The number of specialists in gene synthesis employed in the industry can be expected to increase by 76 percent. Employment in the specialties of plant biology, industrial microbiology, and bioprocess engineering may also show large increases. Long-Term Considerations As already discussed in this chapter, increasing numbers of recent biomedical science graduates have found employment opportunities in research outside the academic sector. Should this trend continue--and the results of the survey of biotechnology firms indicate that it will--it should have a significant impact on the future demand for '" biomedical research-personnel. - Also, the number of scientists who are expected to reach retirement age will steadily rise during the next 20 years--thereby creating an additional demand for investigators. Furthermore, if one assumes that the level of ~redoctoral support in FY 1985-87 (the period for which the Committee is making recommendations) affects primarily the stock of students entering graduate school during this period, then the major impact of any changes in this stock on the' labor force are not likely to be realized until 1994-96, when these students have completed 6 years of graduate education and another 3 years of postdoctoral research training. In view of the above considerations the Committee believes ~hat, in arriving at its recommendations for this report, a comprehensive approach that takes into account both nonacademic demand and long-term . , requirements is needed. Such an approach, however, must be inter- preted with circumspection--due to the great uncertainties involved in making long-range projections and to the dearth of information about the key determinants of demand outside the academic sector. ' Some data have already been presented on recent expansion in employment in the nonacademic sectors. These trends are illustrated in Figure 3.11. As reported in the previous section, preliminary findings from a survey of biotechnology ' firms suggest that further increases may be anticipated for the next several years. While longer range projections of expansion in the nonacademic sectors are considerably more uncertain, the Committee finds no reason to expect the growth trends of the past decade to be curtailed in the future. Should the total numbers employed in the nonacademic sectors continue to increase at 6 percent per year, for example, the net result would be an accretion of more then 18,000 positions over the next 10 years and more than 52,000 over the next 20 years. Such increases, should they occur, would obviously have a major impact on the overall requirements~for biomedical research personnel.

85 25 20 Other To Government Bus i ness/ I ndustry T Ire l ~ 1 973 1 975 1 977 1 979 1 981 FIGURE 3.11 Number of Ph.D. biomedical scientists employed out- side the academic sector (excluding postdoctoral appointments), 1973-81. See Appendix Table BS. Far more predictable are projections of the numbers of job openings created as a result of deaths and retirements. The loss through attrition may be estimated from the age distribution of the 1981 biomedical science labor force--using~the number of individuals who will reach the age of 65 by a specified year. Illustrated in Figure 3.12 are estimates of annual attrition from the academic and nonacademic segments of the labor force during the 1~ 3-2001 period. As shown in the figure, the number of employment positions becoming available each year as a result of attrition is expected to be more than triple in the academic sector over the next 20 years and more than double in the nonacademic sectors. By the year 2001 a total of more than 13,200 replacements in the Ph.D. labor force in the biomedical sciences are expected--with 8,200 of these in universities and colleges. It should be pointed out, however, that if the average age of retirement should become significantly older (as a consequence

86 1 ~ 500 1, 000 U' of - AS - JO _ to so 500 an an/ // ,,tf O I I I , I I .. , . ~ . 1983 85 87 89 91 93 FISCAL YEAR 95 97 99 2001 Academi a Other Sectors FIGURE 3.12 Annual number of biomedical scientists in the FY 1981 Ph.D. labor force expected to reach the age of 65 during the FY 1983- 2001 penod. See Appendix Table B18. of legislative change), this would have the effect of delaying the impact of the expected increases in replacements. Nevertheless, even if the average retirement age were to increase by as much as 5 years, the annual loss from the biomedical labor force in the year 2001 would still be more than 2-1/2 times the size of the present attrition. What are the implications of these projections for future requirements for research personnel in the biomedical sciences? If Ph.D. production were to remain at its current level of approximately 4,000 grade yes each year, then the supply may be adequate to meet

87 what is perceived to be a relatively strong demand for talented young investigators. However, recent trends in first-year gradm te enrollments in the biomedical sciences (see Figure 3.4 presented earlier in this chapter) suggest that the supply of new Ph.D. recipients may decline by as much as 20 percent over the next 5 years. This decline can be attributed, in part, to demographic changes. The size of the college-age population began to fall off in the ~ d-1970s, and this trend is expected to continue until the late l990s. Consequently, there is an increased likelihood that further declines in Ph.D. output in the biomedical sciences will occur during the late 1980s, and throughout the l990s. Should such declines occur shortages of biomedical research personnel could develop in the next decade. To avoid such an occurrence, we believe that it is in the national interest-for the federal government to maintain its support of graduate training for promising young investigators in the biomedical disciplines.