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3. Basic Biomedical Sciences Abstract A reduced number of new entrants to the supply of basic biomedical scientists and increased employment in the industrial sector have combined to produce a better balanced market in 1983. Bachelor's degrees awarded in the biosciences have been falling steadily since 1976, and graduate enrollment started declining in 1978. Ph.D. production fell in 1983, and the number of bioscientists serving on postdoctoral appointments in 1983 failed to increase for the first time in 10 years. Over half of the bioscience Ph.D.s in the labor force was employed in colleges and universities in 1983, but there has been little growth in this sector since 1981. The most rapid growth is taking place in the industrial sector where the emphasis on commer- cialization of recent developments in biotechnology and genetic engineering have increased the demand for biomedical scientists. Industrial employment of biomedical Ph.D.s increased by over 9 percent per year from 1981 to 1983. Industry continues to rely on academia to produce the scientists it needs, especially those with training in the latest techniques of modern bioscience. The committee expects little net growth in the academic sector in the next few years, but the age structure of the bioscience Ph.D. labor force is such that retirement rates are expected to increase in the second half of the 1980 decade. Continued growth in the industrial sector is expected. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW In previous reports issued since 1976, this committee has cited the rapid growth in the number of biomedical scientists serving on postdoctoral appointments as an indicator of insufficient opportunity for these individuals to move into more permanent academic positions. There was evidence that a postdoctoral holding pattern had developed during the 1970s which resulted in many postdoctoral appointees remaining in that status for prolonged periods. As tenure-track faculty positions became more difficult to obtain, the postdoctoral trainees began moving into less traditional career paths such as nonfaculty research staff and other nontenure-track academic positions, and also into nonacademic sectors. Almost all of them either found employment in one of these situations or remained in 51

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52 postdoctoral status and were primarily involved in R and D activities. The unemployment rate for biomedical Ph.D.s has not been more than 1.5 percent since 1972. The most recent data indicate that a better balance has been achieved between the inflow and outflow affecting the postdoctoral pool. Bioscience Ph.D. production and graduate enrollment have decreased while industrial employment has accelerated. This suggests another side of the postdoctoral issue--the vital role that they play in the nation's biomedical research effort. Many experts in the field have cited the importance of having this reservoir of highly trained young scientists available to work on research projects while at the same time receiving training and experience in the latest techniques, equipment, and methodology. Despite the declining growth in demand for faculty, the demand for postdoctoral trainees to participate in research projects continues to be strong. A postdoctoral appointment of at least 3 years has become almost a prerequisite for a faculty position at many universities. Furthermore, a previous study has shown that biomedical Ph.D.s with postdoctoral training tend to be more successful and productive in their subsequent careers than those without such training (NRC, 1976a). So, as pointed out by this committee in its 1979 report (NRC, 1975-81, p. 20), the issue of postdoctoral training is a complex one involving some important trade-offs. On the one hand, it is in the national interest to promote and encourage the availability of an ample supply of young scientists with extended training for biomedical research who contribute to a research effort in which government funding plays a major role. On the other hand, if the postdoctoral pool is large relative to the number of jobs expected to become available for biomedical scientists where their training can be fully utilized, then the resources devoted to their training will have been partially misallocated and some career aspirations will not be realized. Support for postdoctoral training under NRSA programs is a regulating mechanism for helping to achieve the proper balance between these points of view, which often pull in different directions. In this chapter, we present our assessment of the current market for basic biomedical scientists with Ph.D. degrees and the outlook for the next 5 years. Because postdoctoral research training is an integral part of the system under which these scientists are trained and absorbed into the pool of established investigators and teachers, it becomes central to our analysis. We first describe the current market situation as revealed by the most recent data and then outline our view of the prospects for the remainder of the decade. It should be noted that there is some overlap between the scientists we discuss in this chapter and those basic biomedical scientists who have appointments in clinical departments of medical schools. The latter are included in the data of Chapter 2 as well as in this one. In 1982, about 5,800 out of about 70,000 basic biomedical Ph.D.s in the labor force had faculty appointments in clinical departments of medical schools. This overlap in the data presents a logistical problem for our analyses but is not likely to materially affect our findings and conclusions.

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53 CURRENT SUPPLY/DEMAND INDICATORS The committee's assessment of the need for basic biomedical scientists and the level of training that should be provided by the federal government under NRSA programs depends heavily on an analysis of the academic labor market, since that is the dominant sector both in terms of the number of bioscientists employed and the amount of federally-sponsored research performed. In the committee's last report published in 1983, the latest available data for most of the factors that affect the supply and demand for biomedical scientists were for 1981. Additional surveys have since provided data through 1983. The items that we monitor are those that our previous work has shown to determine the market for biomedical Ph.D.s--namely, degrees awarded, enrollments, postdoctoral appointments, R and D funding, and the distribution of biomedical Ph.D. labor force by employment sector. Recent trends in these variables from 1975 to 1983 are shown in Table 3.1 and are summarized below. More detailed data may be found in Appendix Tables Bl-B18. Although the current supply of well-trained biomedical scientists appears adequate, most of the indicators of the flow of new entrants to the future supply have turned down. There is evidence that the size of the Ph.D. labor force in biomedical fields is fast approaching a peak and the prospects for the next few years are for little, if any, growth. The postdoctoral pool of biomedical scientists--which has acted to buffer the system since 1972--appears adequate for current needs. For the rest of the 1980s, we may see a gradual reduction in the size of the postdoctoral pool as Ph.D. production declines and more opportunities open up in the nonacademic sectors. This analysis is based on the following observations. . Enrollments and degrees granted in the biomedical fields show declines from previous years. Generally, these declines continue a trend of several years but, in some cases, they constitute the first drop in a long series of increases. Bioscience Ph.D. production reached an all-time high in 1982 and dropped slightly in 1983. Bachelor's degrees and first-year graduate enrollments in bioscience fields have been falling since 1976. The size of the postdoctoral pool appears to have dropped in 1983 for the first time in over 10 years. Academic employment of biomedical Ph.D.s increased very slightly in 1983--industrial employment grew most rapidly. These and other developments in the biomedical fields are discussed more fully in the sections below.

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55 Ph.D. Production (Table 3.1, line la and Figure 3.1 ) The annual number of Ph.D. degrees awarded in the biomedical fields, which has been increasing gradually since the mid-1970s, reached an all-time high in 1982 before dropping in 1983 to 3,775. As was pointed out in the committee's 1983 report (IOM, 1983b, pp. 64-65), the peak production in 1982 and subsequent decline was an expected result of corresponding patterns of first-year graduate enrollments 6 years earlier. These enrollments peaked around 1976 and have continued to decline each year since then through 1983 (Figure 3.1~. If the past relationship between first-year graduate enrollments and Ph.D. production prevails, we would expect Ph.D. production to continue to decline for the rest of the 1980 decade at least. Of course the rate of decline is critically important, and at this point, we are not sure just how fast the drop will be. If Ph.D. production is in fact closely tied to first-year graduate enrollments, then the data would indicate a drop of about 3 percent per year for the next several years. This would bring the level of biomedical Ph.D. production in 1990 to about 3,050, which is below the 1970 level. Whether or not this would lead to serious shortages depends, of course, on what happens to the demand for biomedical Ph.D.s. The committee's estimate of demand in turn depends on what assumptions are made about trends in total graduate and undergraduate enrollments and R and D funding for the next few years. These assumptions and projections are presented in the Market Outlook section of this chapter. Postdoctoral Appointments (Table 3.l, line lc and Figure 3.1 ~ The number of biomedical scientists serving on postdoctoral appointments apparently declined slightly in 1983 for the first time in over 10 years, perhaps as a consequence of the drop in Ph.D. production in that year. Throughout the 1960s, the postdoctoral pool tracked quite closely with Ph.D. production. But in the 1970s, the postdoctoral pool continued to grow while Ph.D. production leveled off. The committee noted this disparity in its 1983 report (IOM, 1983b, p. 57) and presented evidence showing that it was due to slower absorption of postdoctoral trainees into more permanent jobs in the academic sector. The fact is that employment of bioscientists in the academic sector slowed dramatically in the mid-1970s after a long period of rapid expansion since 1960 (see Appendix Table Bed. Between 1960 and 1973, academic employment of biomedical Ph.D.s increased by more than 9 percent per year on the average, but only at 4.5 percent per year between 1973 and 1981. This slowdown caused some pressure to build up in the system which has manifested itself by the bulge in the postdoc- toral pool. Continued expansion of employment in the industrial sector is apparently helping to relieve some of that pressure. About 31 percent of bioscience postdoctoral appointees in FY 1983 were foreign citizens, the same percentage as in FY 1982 and up slightly from the 28 percent in FY 1980 {NSF 1973-85a).

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56 10, 000 9 ,000 8 ,000 7, 000 6,000 5, 000 4, 000 3, 000 First-Year Full-Time Graduate Enrol lments in Doctorate-Grantinq - Insti tutions Postdoctoral Appointments ~ ~ ~ Ph. D. s Awarded 60 h4 ~ ' I I - ~ ~ I ' I l 66 68 70 72 74 76 F I SCAL Y EAR 78 80 82 84 FIGURE 3.1 Ph.D. production, postdoctoral appointments, and first-year graduate enrollments in doctorate-granting institutions in basic biomedical science fields, 1960-83. See Appendix Tables B2 and B3. Bachelor's Degrees (Table 3.], line Id and Figure 3.2) After a long period of sustained growth from the early 1960s through 1976, the number of bachelor's degrees granted in the biomedical sciences has declined for 6 straight years. The bio- sciences are not alone in this regard--many fields have experienced similar patterns, with the notable exceptions of business, engineering, and computer sciences. These occupationally-oriented fields have proven to be very popular with students lately. Business, and management in particular, has had exceptionally strong growth in B.A.s since the mid-1960s. Currently more than 200,000 business B.A.S are produced annually, far above the second most popular field, education. The ratio of biomedical bachelor's degrees to total bachelor 'S degrees awarded annually has fallen to its lowest level since 1960 (Appendix Table By. This has an ominous implication for future Ph.D. production and also affects our estimate of undergraduate enrollment in bioscience fields as explained in the next section.

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1 ,000 9oo 800 700 600 500 400 - ~ 300 o ~ 200 L~^ 3 (~ C~ ~ ~ V 100 C3 ~ 90 C) ~ 80 <' =, 70 0 O _ L~ 1: c~ ~: o csC L~ z 60 50 40 30 20 10 ~7 _ ~L - /~Total B.A.s _,~ J _' ,,f. Bu s i ness and - Management B.A.s _ f _ ~ f r" .~ .~. x~ ~ ~x _ ,,.~ ~ ~% ,~xx Bi omedi cal Sc i ence B . A. s x. . x _ x xx x xx .~ $ :~~ ~ Physical Science B. A. s l ~ ~ ~ I I ~ I J I 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 F I SCAL Y EAR FIGURE 3.2 Bachelor's degrees awarded in biomedical science fields com- pared to other fields, 1962-82. See Appendix Tables B3 and B4. Business and management and physical sciences degrees are from the U.S. Department of Education (1948-84~.

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58 Enrollments (Table 3.l, line 4 and Figure 3.3) For purposes of this study, it is necessary to have an estimate of undergraduate enrollment in bioscience fields, mainly because such enrollment helps to determine the demand for bioscience Ph.D.s in the academic sector. Yet the U.S. Department of Education, whose surveys collect most of the country's data on enrollments and degrees, does not provide undergraduate enrollment figures by such detailed fields. Therefore, we have developed a procedure for estimating bioscience undergraduate enrollment from the ratio of bioscience bachelor's degrees to total bachelor's degrees (Bb/Bt). This ratio in year t is multiplied by total undergraduate enrollment in year t-2 to provide an estimate of bioscience enrollment in year t-2. Boo 700 _ 600 In ~ 500 o 4~ 100 Actual _______ Projected Al l Sc hoof s 1 1 I li gh Estimate ( 1%/yr . ) - -A - Ml Od l e tst. (-1%/Yr. ) _~ ~ Publ i c School s Pri vate School s ~ V+~+ I+~+ ~ ~ ~ ~ ++~+ F+~+ -_ ~ Ilila te 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 F I SCAL YEAR 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 FIGURE 3.3 Total biomedical science undergraduate and graduate enrollments in colleges and univer- sities, by control of institution, 1960-81, with projections to 1990. See Appendix Table B1.

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59 As noted in the previous section, the ratio B ~ Bt has been falling since 1976, and so even though total undergraduate enrollment has increased almost without interruption since 1960 and reached an all-time high in 1983, estimated bioscience undergraduate enrollment has been declining since 1976. The latest estimate for 1981 is almost 1 percent below the 1980 level. Since we cannot measure bioscience undergraduate enrollment directly, there is some uncertainty that our estimating procedure is detecting the trends accurately. Yet there is also some corroborating evidence from graduate enrollment to support our estimates. Graduate enrollment in bioscience fields (which is measured directly by the National Science Foundation) reflects the pattern shown by estimated bioscience undergraduate enrollment--it reached a peak in 1978 and has been falling steadily since then through 1983 (Table 3.1, line 4a). Although enrollments in medical and dental schools have leveled out, as of 1983 they had not fallen (Table 3.1, line 4b). But the 1983 increase over 1982 was only 16 students, and it is anticipated that 1984-85 data will show the first yearly decline in these enrollments in more than 20 years. Overall, total graduate and undergraduate enrollment in bioscience fields, as best we can estimate it, reached an all-time high in 1976 and has declined steadily through 1981. This pattern is illustrated in Figure 3.3 along with the committee's projections through 1990. R and D Funding (Table 3.1, line 2 and Figure 3.4) Biomedical science R and D expenditures at colleges and universi- ties are generally following the pattern anticipated by the committee. These funds increased by 2 percent in 1983 after adjusting for inflation. The committee expects these funds to grow at about 1.5 percent per year in real terms through 1990 as shown in Figure 3.4. NIH research grant expenditures rose substantially in 1983 after successive real declines in 1981 and 1982 (Table 3.1, line 2c). LaborForce(Table3.1,line3) The labor force of Ph.D.s employed in biomedical science fields totaled more than 71,000 in 1983. Slightly more than half of these scientists are employed in academic institutions, but there was almost no growth of this sector between 1981 and 1983. It would appear that declining bioscience enrollments and slower growth in R and D expenditures are diminishing academic demand for biomedical scientists. Industrial employment of biomedical Ph.D.s is increasing rapidly but this sector is still small relative to the academic sector. The distribution of the labor force has shifted somewhat toward the industrial sector since 1975--it has increased from 13.2 percent of the biomedical Ph.D. labor force in 1975 to 16.5 percent in 1983. At the same time, academic employment has declined from 56 percent to about 52 percent of the labor force. The remaining sectors have generally retained their respective shares.

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60 2,000 ,800 ,600 ,400 ,200 1 ,000 800 600 400 200 o Actual Pro jected All School s . Publ i c School s - - ~_ - - _~- s~ ~ ~ ++ - , . ^~ . ~ ~ +4~+ ~ ~ Pri vate School s 1 Chow 1 ti-.5%1Yr ) LOW ED ~ i me ~ ~ ( 0%/yr . ) 1 1 1 1 1 1 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 F I SCAL YEAR 80 82 84 86 88 90 FIGURE 3.4 Biomedical science R and D expenditures in colleges and universities, by control of institution, 1964-83, with projections to 1990 (1972 $, millions). See Appendix Table B9. Within the academic sector there is a rapid diffusion of new concepts and techniques from basic research to agriculture and clinical disciplines. This transfer of knowledge has been facilitated by the large postdoctoral group of scientists through which new idea S and techniques are quite easily transmitted. Thus, there is widespread enthusiasm for the opportunities created by recent advances in this fast moving field of science.

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61 SURVEY OF BIOTECHNOLOGY FIRMS In 1983, this committee collaborated with the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment in a joint effort to collect information about employment of biomedical scientists in the developing biotechnology industry. That survey of 265 firms obtained responses from 138, of which 20 said they were not engaged in biotechnology as defined on the questionnaire (the application of novel biological strategies such as rDNA, cell fusion or immobilized cells or enzymes, for biochemical processing). The results--described more fully in the committee's 1983 report--showed that most of the firms were formed after 1977, and in 1983 employed about 12 biomedical Ph.D.s per firm. Total employment in the industry is difficult to estimate because there are no precise data on the actual number of biotechnology firms. The Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) estimates that about 5,000 scientists were employed by 219 biotechnology firms in 1983 (OTA, 1984~. Probably half of these scientists were Ph.D.s. This survey was repeated in 1985 as a joint effort of the committee and the American Society for Microbiology. A total of 336 potential biotechnology firms were contacted. Responses were received from 168 firms {50 percent) and 27 indicated that they were not engaged in biotechnology activities, leaving 141 usable responses. The questionnaire and a summary of responses are presented in Appendix E. There are some signs that the formation of new firms has slowed from the rapid pace of the 1970s. The peak was reached in 1981 when 26 of the respondents started operations in biotechnology {Figure 3.5~. Since then there has been a pronounced fall off, with 17 firms starting in 1982 and only 4 each in 1983 and 1984. Although there appear to be more firms in the industry in 1985 than there were in 1983, we don't know the extent to which the apparent expansion is real or simply due to better identification of biotechnology firms. 3n _ _ 25 _ 20 _ In n Pre-72 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 YEAR COMPANY STARTED BIOTECHNOLOGY R AND D 82 83 84 FIGURE 3.5 Percentage distribution of the year of firms' initiation of operations in the biotech- nology industry. Data are from the Committee/ASM survey, 1985.

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68 Total bioscience enrollments High Middle Low 11/yr. -0.5%/yr. -satyr. Bioscience R and D expenditures in colleges & universities Satyr. 1.5~/yr. 0 Applying these growth rates to the latest data, we derive the 1990 levels under the above assumptions: S = total bioscience enrollments (492,900 in 1981) US = 3-yr. moving average of undergraduate enrollments (369,100 in 1981) GS = 3-yr. moving average of graduate enrollments (130,800 in 1983) RD = bioscience R and D expenditures ($1,514 milt in 1982) M = 3 yr. weighted average of R and D ($1,477 milt in 1982) WS = 0.25 US ~ 0.75 GS (189,600 in 1981) High Middle Low 523~180 471,160 384,300 346~080 140/250 126,300 $1t890 199 r 274 182~160 423 J 630 311rl70 113 r 560 $1,536 $1'680 $1 r 536 166/313 Using these projections as input to the model, we now derive estimates of the annual number of faculty positions expected to become available each year during the period 1983-90 from expansion and attrition due to death, retirement, and other causes (field-switching and job changes). First we estimate demand created by expansion of faculty (Figure 3.8~. To that we add demand created by attrition. Our attrition estimates are based on data from the Survey of Doctorate Recipients conducted every 2 years by the Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel of the National Research Council (Table 3.3), augmented by a detailed study of faculty attrition rates by the committee on Continuity in Academic Research Performance (NRC, 1979b). Attrition rates shown in Table 3.3 are 6 percent per year for all causes in the 1981-83 period. This is up sharply from the 4.1 percent rate of the 1979-81 period (IOM, 1983b, p. 77~. Most college and university faculties expanded rapidly in the 1960s to accommodate the surge in enrollments. Growth during the 1970s and 1980s has been slower. As a result, faculty age distribu- tions have shifted upward. In the biosciences, the proportion of academically employed Ph.D.s over age 60 has increased from 6.7 percent in 1977 to 8.6 percent in 1983 (see Appendix Table Boy. our projections indicate that this proportion will be over 12 percent by 1991. One implication of this trend is that faculty attrition rates will be higher in the late 1980s. For projections to 1990, attrition of academically employed Ph.D.s is estimated at 1.5 percent per year due to death and retirement. In

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_________ Projected 20 45 40 35 30 25: 15t 10 5 _ O I , ~ 1 ~ 62 64 66 68 70 ~5 10lOlyr titrate ~ As ~ __-~~~ Mi ddl e Est . ( 1. 80/0/yr . ) ~c: _________________ Id te (-1 83, Al 1 School,' 69 p,~` Publ i c School s bar. +~+ Private Schools I 1 1 ' ' 1 1 1 1 ~ 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 PI SCAL YEAR FIGURE 3.8 Ph.D.s employed in the biomedical sciences at colleges and universities, by control of institution, 1960-83, with projections to 1990. See Appendix Table BS. the case of attrition due to other causes, we use high, middle, and low estimates of 4 percent, 3.5 percent, and 3 percent, respectively. These computations are shown in Table 3.4. The three assumptions about enrollment growth together with the three assumptions about R and D expenditures give nine combinations of assumptions to be used as input to the model. Under the most optimistic assumptions, bioscience R and D expendi- tures at academic institutions would grow by 3 percent per year through 1990 (assumption I of Table 3.4), driving the F/WS ratio to 0.254.2 These are higher than the 1 percent and 3 percent estimates used for projections to 1988 in the last report. 2The 95 percent confidence limits on this estimate are 0.274 and 0.236, respectively. Since the most optimistic assumptions attempt to define an upper limit on our projections, we use the upper 95 percent confidence limit on the F/WS ratio (0.274) as the most optimistic estimate.

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70 TABLE 3.3 Inflows and Outflows from Academic Employment for Biomedical Science Ph.D.sq 1981-83 I. Average Annual Attrition from Academic Employment in the Biomedical Sciences 1981-83 1. Total biomedical Ph.D.s employed in academia in 1981: 36,482 2. Leaving academic employment in the biomedical sciences each year to: % of Academic N Employment a. nonacademic sectors 904 2.5 b. postdoctoral appointments 152 0.4 c. death and retirement 432 1.2 d. unemployed 212 0.6 e. other fieldsa 462 1.3 f. total attrition 2,162 6.0 II. Average Annual Accessions to Academic Employment in the Biomedical Sciences 1981-83 1. Total biomedical Ph.D.s employed in academia in 1983: 36,963 2. Entering academic employment in the biomedical sciences each year from: % of Total _N Accessions a. nonacademic sectors 527 21.9 b. postdoctoral appointments 1,197 49.8 c. unemployed 110 4.6 d. Ph.D. recipients 1981-82b 569 23.7 e. total annual accessions 2,403 100.0 III. Balancing: 1981 academic employmentattrition + accessions = 1983 academic employment 36,482 - 2(2,162) + 2(2,403) = 36,964C a These individuals were all academically employed in 1981 and 1983. The number shown represents the estimated net outflow from biomedical fields to other fields. b Based on postdoctoral plans of Ph.D. recipients, it is estimated that 70% of these new Ph.D. cohorts took a postdoctoral appointment before taking an academic position. c Does not agree with line II.1 because of rounding. SOURCES: National Research Council (1958-85, 1973-84). We project academic demand by using the most optimistic estimate of enrollment growth--1 percent per year (assumption A in Table 3.4--together with the estimated F/WS ratio. This produces an upper estimate of faculty size of 54,700 bioscience Ph.D.S in 1990, for a faculty growth rate of 5.7 percent per year. About 2,530 positions per year would be created by faculty expansion, 690 per year would be generated by attrition due to death and retirement, and 1,830 per year would be generated by other attrition. The total number of academic positions that would become available each year under these high growth conditions is 5,050.

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71 TABLE 3.4 Projected Growth in Biomedical Science Ph.D. Faculty, 1983-90, Based on Projections of Enrollment and R and D Expendituresa Assumptions about Real R&D Expenditures (in constant 1972 dollarsb) in the Biomedical Sciences in Assumptions about Graduate Colleges and Universities ($1.5 billion in 1982) and Undergraduate I II III Enrollments in the Biomedical Will remain at Sciences and Medical and Will grow at Will grow at current level Dental Schools (493,000 3%/year to $1.9 1.5%/year to $1.7 ($1.5 billion) students in 1981) billion in 1990 billion in 1990 through 1990 A. Will grow at 1%/yr., Expected size of biomedical Ph.D. reaching 523,000 students faculty (F) in 1990 54,700 45,800 38,900 by 1990 Annual growth rate in F from 1983 to 1990 5.7% 3.1% 0.7% Average annual increment due to faculty expansion 2,530 1,270 270 Annual replacement needs due to: death and retirements 690 620 570 other attritiond 1,830 1,450 1,140 Expected number of academic positions to become available annually for biomedical Ph.D.s 5,050 3,340 1,980 B. Will decline by 0.5%/yr. to Expected size of biomedical Ph.D. 471,000 students by 1990 faculty (F) in 1990 50,000 41,900 35,500 Annual growth rate in F from 1983 to 1990 4.4% 1.8% -0.6% Average annual increment due to faculty expansion 1,860 700 - 200 Annual replacement needs due to: death and retirements 650 590 540 other attritiond 1,740 1,380 1,090 Expected number of academic positions to become available annually for biomedical Ph.D.s 4,250 2,670 1,430 C. Will decline by 2%/yr. to Expected size of biomedical Ph.D. 424,000 students by 1990 faculty (F) in 1990 45,600 38,200 32,400 Annual growth rate in F from 1983 to 1990 3.0% 0.5% - 1.8% Average annual increment due to faculty expansion 1,240 180 -650 Annual replacement needs due to: death and retirements 620 560 520 other attritiond 1,650 1,320 1,040 Expected number of academic positions to become available annually for biomedical Ph.D.s 3,510 2,060 920 a Faculty is defined in this table as all academically employed Ph.D.s in biomedical fields, excluding postdoctoral appointees. These projections are based on the following relationship: (F/WS)~ = 0.395 [exp(-exp(2.013 - 0.001114M))] + 0.05, where F = faculty; WS = weighted average of last 3 years of enrollments, i.e., (WS)~ = 0.25(US)~ + 0.75(GS)~, where (US)~ = 3-year moving average of bioscience undergraduate enrollments and (GS)~ = 3-year moving average of bioscience graduate enrollments; M = weighted average of last 3 years of biomedical science R and D expenditures in colleges and universities, i.e., M' = ~/4(R~ + 2R~ ~ + Rat 2). See Appendix Tables B1, B6, and B9. b Deflated by the Implicit GNP Price Deflator, 1972 = 100.0. See Appendix Table B7. c Based on an estimated replacement rate of 1.5% annually due to death and retirement. Based on high, middle, and low attrition rates of 4%, 3.5%, and 3%, respectively.

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72 Under the middle or best-guess assumptions (II-B in Table 3.4), bioscience R and D expenditures at academic institutions would grow by 1.5 percent per year through 1990--yielding an F/WS ratio of 0.230-- and bioscience enrollment would decline by 0.5 percent per year to 471,000 students by 1990. The best estimate of bioscience Ph.D. faculty size under these assumptions is 41,900, an increase of 700 positions or 1.8 percent per year over the 1983 level. Attrition would add another 1,970 positions to give a total annual academic demand of about 2,670 positions. Under the low growth assumptions (III-C in Table 3.4), bioscience and D expenditures at academic institutions would remain at the 1982 level through 1990 and consequently the bioscience F/WS ratio would also remain at the 1982 level of 0.207 3 Bioscience enrollment would decline by 2 percent per year, yielding a Ph.D. faculty size in 1990 of 32,400. That represents a drop of 650 positions per year, but attrition would add 1,560, for a net demand of 920 per year. ESTIMATING PREDOCTORAL AND POSTDOCTORAL SUPPORT LEVELS UNDER NRSA PROGRAMS Having obtained an estimate of the size of the academic market for biomedical Ph.D.s through 1990, we are now in a position to assess the level of predoctoral and postdoctoral training needed to satisfy that demand. For this, we must consider how the system works at several crucial stages of the process by which biomedical scientists are trained and absorbed into career positions. Postdoctoral Training Levels The features of the postdoctoral training system which must be considered in addition to the projections of faculty growth are as follows: the number of accessions to faculty positions who have {or should have) postdoctoral research training, 2. the appropriate length of the postdoctoral research training period, the proportion of individuals in the postdoctoral research training pipeline who are expected to choose academic careers, the proportion of support to the total pool of postdoctoral research trainees that should be provided by the federal government. 3 The 95 percent confidence limits on this estimate are 0.220-0.195. We use the lower limit of 0.195 to represent the most pessimistic estimate of F/WS.

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73 It will be noted that some of these features reflect decisions by individuals regarding career choice, and in that sense they are independent of the system. However, there are other features--such as the proportion of the total support for the postdoctoral pool that should be assumed by the federal government--that can be controlled by policy and program decisions. Using the projections of academic demand derived in Table 3.4 and the same set of conditions specified in the 1981 and 1983 reports, we calculate in Table 3.5 the range of basic biomedical science postdoc- toral trainees that should be supported by NRSA programs under the specified conditions. Line 1 of Table 3.5 is a summary of the projections of academic demand for the extreme cases and the best-guess estimate derived in Table 3.4. Line 2 shows the number of academic positions to be filled by individuals with postdoctoral research training experience. From the data on inflows and outflows from academic employment in the biosciences between 1981 and 1983 shown in Table 3.3, we-estimate that 70 percent of all vacancies will be filled by former postdoctoral trainees. In the best-guess case, this number is estimated to be 1,870 per year between 1983 and 1990. Line 3 indicates the size of the biomedical postdoctoral pool required to supply the necessary number of individuals with postdoctoral training under certain assumptions about the length of the postdoctoral training period and the proportion of the pool seeking academic employment. Currently, bioscience Ph.D.s are typically spending about 3 years in postdoctoral appointments, up from 2 years in the early 1970s. If the appropriate length of postdoctoral training is assumed to be 3 years, then the pool size needed to produce 1,870 trained scientists each year is three times 1,870 or 5,610. Further, if 60 percent of the trainees seek academic appointments after completing their training, then the necessary pool size must be 9,350. Line 4 shows the estimated number of biomedical science postdoc- toral trainees that should be supported annually by NKSA programs under different assumptions about the proportion of total support provided by that source. The resulting range Is between 1,100 under the lowest set of assumptions, and 5,890 under the highest set. The best-guesS assumptions yield a range of 3,200-4,670 postdoctoral trainees. Predoctoral Training Levels A similar procedure can be used to estimate the level of predoctoral training to be supplied under NRSA programs. Starting with the number of postdoctoral trainees needed under the most likely projections {Table 3.5, line 3--middle estimate), we may determine in turn the number of Ph.D.s to be produced each year, the level of graduate enrollments needed, and finally the number of predoctoral trainees that should be in the pipeline. The calculations are shown in Table 3.6. They depend on certain parameters that describe how the

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74 TABLE 3.5 Estimated Number of Basic Biomedical Science Postdoctoral Trainees Needed to Meet Expected Academic Demand Through 1990 Under Various Conditions Projected 198~90 High Estimate Middle Low Estimate Estimate 2,670 Annual Average 1981-83 1. Academic demand for biomedical Ph.D.s annual average: 5,050 920 2,400 a. due to expansion of faculty 2,530 700 - 640 240 b. due to death and retirements 690 590 520 430 c. due to other attritions 1,830 1,380 1,040 1,730 2. Total accession with postdoctoral research training- annual average (assuming 70% of all accessions have postdoctoral research training) 3. Size of biomedical postdoctoral pool annual average ~ . . . . . . . ~ . . Size needed to meet academic demand assuming a 3-yr. training period and portion of trainees seeking academic positions is: 7,920 a. 60~o 11,780 9,350 3,200 b. 70% 10,100 8,010 2,740 4. Annual number of biomedical postdoctoral trainees to be supported under NRSA programs: a. If 40% of pool is supported under NSRA b. If 50% of pool is supported under NSRA 3,535 1,870 640 1 20~1,600C 2,855 (1981-82) 4,040 4,710 3,20~3,740 1,10~1,280 5,05~5,890 4,00 - ,670 1,37~1,600 a Assumes an attrition rate due to death and retirement of 1.5% per year. b Assumes replacement demand created by other attrition under the high, middle, and low estimates will be 4%, 3.5%, and 3%, respectively. c Assumes that 70% of the 1981~2 Ph.D. cohorts took a postdoctoral appointment before taking an academic position. See Table 3.3. SOURCES: Tables 3.3 and 3.4. system works in the biomedical fields. For example, it is known that almost 70 percent of each biomedical Ph.D. cohort plans to take a postdoctoral appointment after graduation (Table 3.6, line 3~. our data also show that about 9 or 10 percent of all bioscience graduate students complete the Ph.D. program each year (Table 3.6, line 4), and that NRSA programs recently have provided sunnort for 5 to 10 percent of bioscience predoctoral students. ~ , _ _ ,= ~ Applying these system parameters, we derive the estimated number of NRSA predoctoral trainees that should be in the pipeline, given our projections of academic demand and the current status of the training system (Table 3.6, line 5~. The result is a range of about 1,900-5,780 predoctoral trainees per year in the biosciences during the period 1983-90.

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75 TABLE 3.6 Estimated Number of Basic Biomedical Science Predoctoral Trainees to be Supported Under NRSA Programs Projected 198~90 Actual 1983 1. Estimated number of postdoctoral trainees needed to satisfy demand under the committee's most likely estimate (from Table 3.5) 2. Annual attrition from postdoctoral pool if average length of appointment is 3 years 3. Number of Ph.D.s needed each year to maintain postdoctoral pool level if percentage of Ph.D.s seeking a postdoctoral appointment is: a. 60% b. 70% 4. Average graduate enrollment needed to produce the required number of Ph.D.s if annual completion rate is:a a. 9% b. 10% 5. Number of NRSA predoctoral traineeships needed if percentage of graduate students to be supported under NRSA programs is: a. 5% b. 10% 8,01~9,350 2,67~3,120 4,45~5,200 3,81~4,460 42,33~57,780 38,10~52,000 1,90~2,890 3,81~5,780 7,827 2,609 3,775 41,532 3,673 (1982) a The completion rate is defined here as the ratio of Ph.D.s awarded in any year to graduate enrollments in the same year. This ratio has varied in a narrow range generally between 0.09 and 0.1 since 1960. It is likely that many graduate students in this field are candidates for the M.A. rather than the Ph.D. degree. See Appendix Tables B1 and B3. SOURCES: Table 3.5, Appendix Tables B1 and B3. SUMMARY The committee's determination of the appropriate number of trainees to be supported under NRSA programs in the basic biomedical sciences has been based on estimates of academic demand and certain assumptions about how the training system operates. Projections of demand are derived from a model in which faculty size is dependent upon enrollment and research funding. Graduate enrollment is thought to have more influence on faculty demand than undergraduate enrollment, so the previous model has been modified in this report to allocate more weight to graduate enrollment.

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76 The resulting projections show a somewhat higher annual academic demand through 1990 compared to previous projections through 1988. This is true despite the fact that enrollment and research funding assumptions are lower than previous ones. One reason is that the most recent data for 1983 show that biomedical Ph.D. faculty has continued to grow moderately even though enrollments are declining. Therefore, the faculty/student ratio shows sharp increases in recent years, and this has the effect of raising the projections of faculty size in 1990. However, the outlook is heavily dependent on the last few data points and could change drastically with the next one or two observations. Another reason is the increase in attrition that is expected in the late 1980s. Based on the faculty age distribution and data from another study, we now estimate attrition due to death and retirement at 1.5 percent per year through 1990, and 3.5 percent per year for other reasons. These are up from the 1.0 percent per year and 3.0 percent, respectively, that we had projected through 1988. Finally, there is the question of predoctoral support and how to assess it in terms of national need. This task is made even more difficult by the fact that the time horizon involved in predoctoral training is longer than in postdoctoral training. Also, since practically all predoctoral support comes from training grants rather than fellowships, the issue of institutional support becomes another factor to consider along with enrollment trends, Ph.D. production, the postdoctoral pool size, alternate sources of support, and the long-term outlook. Using the parameters of the current system as guides, and with stability of the system as an important criterion, we have estimated the level of predoctoral support that NRSA programs should provide. EVALUATION OF THE MARC HONORS UNDERGRADUATE RESEARCH TRAINING PROGRAM The Minority Access to Research Careers (MARC) program was created by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS) to increase the number of biomedical scientists from minority groups. The largest component of the MARC program is the Honors Undergraduate Research Training Program. Trainees (junior and senior level honor S students at schools with enrollments drawn substantially from minority groups) receive tuition and stipend support and participate in a specially structured curriculum. Exposure to ongoing research in the biomedical sciences is a central component of the training experience. The MARC Honors program has as its principal objective the encouragement of minority students in the pursuit of graduate training leading to the Ph.D. degree. It began in 1977 with 74 trainees at 12 participating schools. By 1984, there were 389 undergraduate trainees at 52 programs involving 56 undergraduate institutions. As of August 1984, there were nearly 800 program alumni. At the suggestion of NIGMS, this committee has undertaken an evaluation of the Honors Undergraduate Research Training Program. A complete report describing that evaluation will be published separately. The central findings of the MARC Honors Evaluation are described below.

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77 The MARC Honors program was established in response to the small number of minority group members holding research doctorates in the biomedical sciences. Examination of the most current data on scientific employment and training demonstrates that minority group members are still underrepresented at all stages of the scientific career. While some reduction of the minority/nonminority disparity has taken place, substantial underrepresentation of minorities remains the rule. Site visits to five MARC Honors training programs reveal a diverse array of program activities adapted to the needs of the recipient institutions and their students. The program (often working in conjunction with another NIH program, the Minority Biomedical Research Support Program) brings guest speakers to campus, develops new courses, purchases laboratory equipment, and fosters institutional connections between program schools and major research centers. Most of these activities benefit the entire scientific community on campus. Individual trainees receive stipends and work closely with faculty members on laboratory research projects. As part of their training, they also attend scientific seminars, conferences, and meetings. A summer research project (usually at a major research university) is a significant part of the MARC Honors experience. Trainees report that the laboratory exposure and close contact with faculty members is an important part of their academic and professional development. Many credit these experiences with shaping their decision to pursue research careers. Faculty members report high levels of motivation among the MARC Honors students and note several examples of published research by undergraduate trainees. At almost every institution, the faculty members identified highly talented students who might not have been able to finish school without the availability of MARC stipends. Two important issues emerged from the site visits. There seems to be some disagreement over the optimal location of the trainees' summer research experience. Some MARC faculty members feel that the student is best served by continuing a research project at the home institution. Others find the benefits of external placement (personal growth as well as broader research experience) to be significant. Emphasis on external placement varies within and across program institutions. A second issue concerns the selection of trainees. The MARC Honors program was designed explicitly to prepare students for research careers, yet many talented undergraduate science majors plan to pursue professional (but not necessarily research) careers. The question of how to treat students with professional career plans is a crucial issue in the selection of MARC Honors applicants. A questionnaire inquiring about educational and occupational status was sent to all MARC Honors program alumni. Sixty-five percent of the 821 former trainees in the study population returned the questionnaires. Survey results show that 76.1 percent of the former trainees have enrolled in graduate programs at some point. As of November 12, 1984 (the survey reference date), 43.5 percent of the former trainees were enrolled in doctorate programs (128 in M.D. or D.D.S. programs, 86 in Ph.D. programs and 3 in M.D./Ph.D. programs). Another 15.1 percent were enrolled in master's degree programs. Since

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78 the first MARC Honors cohort graduated in 1978 (and the first full, two-year trainee cohort in 1979), there has been limited time in which to complete work on a Ph.D. degree. By the fall of 1984, 22 people from the first 3 trainee cohorts (21.2 percent) had earned doctorate degrees. Of the completed doctorates, the vast majority were M.D.S; only one respondent had completed a Ph.D. at the time of the survey. Most of the former trainees who were no longer in school were employed in science or engineering fields {62.4 percent). The unemployment rate of former trainees was 9.2 percent and was concentrated among those without graduate degrees. while exact comparisons cannot be made, the rates of graduate school attendance and employment in science fields for the former MARC Honors trainees are above the levels found in the most closely comparable national data. Overall, 35.7 percent of the respondents expected to be in research careers by the time they are 35 years old. Among those planning careers in the health professions, a smaller fraction (13.0 percent) expected to be doing research at age 35. Only a small fraction of the former trainees (7.4 percent) expect to be in jobs unrelated to science or engineering. The survey did not reveal any serious deficiencies in the MARC Honors program. While some students left graduate or professional programs before receiving a degree (22.2 percent), nearly half are currently enrolled in another graduate program. More students withdrew from master's degree programs than from doctorate programs. Students reported a high level of satisfaction with the MARC Honors program in general and with the research component in particular. In an attempt to gauge the institutional impact of the MARC Honors program, the percentage of graduates majoring in biology was examined at MARC and nonMARC institutions. The percentage of biology majors has remained level since the late 1970s for minority students and has decreased for white students. At MARC schools, however, the percentage of biology majors increased (especially among minority students). Both the size and the length of the programs were associated with higher rates of degrees earned in biology. These effects persisted after the impact of other institutional characteristics were taken into consideration. A FOLLOW-UP STUDY OF FORMER NIH POSTDOCTORAL TRAINEES AND FELLOWS A study of the career achievements of NIH postdoctoral trainees and fellows is currently being conducted. The employment, grant, and publication activity of biomedical scientists with NIH postdoctoral appointments is being compared to that of biomedical scientists without NIH postdoctoral appointments. Due to the differences in career patterns and sources of data, separate analyses will be conducted for M.D. and Ph.D. scientists. For Ph.D.s, the NIH group will be divided into trainees and fellows based on the terms of the most recent NIH appointment. The non-NIH group will be subdivided according to their plans for postdoctoral training at the time they completed their Ph.D. It is expected that this follow-up study will be completed in 1986 and a separate report on it will be published by the committee.