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OCR for page 95
EXHIBIT C-1
INCOME AND ASSETS OF THE ELDERLY:
A BRIEF SURVEY OF EXISTING INFORMATION
*
Alicia H. Munnell
In order to devise an appropriate public response to the long-term
care needs of the elderly, it is essential to assess the personal
financial resources available to this group to cover the cost of this
form of care. Such an assessment requires not only information on
existing sources and levels of income and assets, but also projections
of the financial status of the elderly in the future. This memo
summarizes the existing survey data on the income and assets of older
people and discusses attempts, using microsimulation techniques, to
project the financial status of the elderly after the turn of the
century.
The overall conclusion that emerges from this survey is that good
data exist on the current financial resources available to today's
elderly and, although the studies have not yet been done, both the data
and technology are available to make useful projections of the income
and assets of the elderly IS years from now.
The survey also reveals two specific areas where the existing
methodology needs some improvement. First, while the modules used to
project income are widely accepted and produce consistent results
across models, the asset modules are still relatively unrefined. The
problem is that economists have not reached agreement on how savings
behavior is determined. Second, none of the models take account of the
possibility of intergenerational transfers within extended families.
In this case, the problem arises because the models are incapable of
maintaining the linkages between the two families that are created when
a child leaves one family and creates another. Despite these
limitations, however, we should be able to construct a reasonably
reliable picture of the future financial status of the elderly.
Senior Vice President and Director of Research, Federal Reserve
Bank of Boston. The views expressed are solely those of the author and
do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Boston or the Federal Reserve System.
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Surveys of the Income and Assets of Today's Elderly
Surveys of the income and assets of today's elderly serve two
important functions. First, they provide detailed information on the
level and sources of financial resources available to the current
generation of elderly with which to finance long-term care services.
Second, these surveys provide the initial data bases for the
microsimulation projections of income and assets of the elderly
population in the future. For each of these purposes, the ideal survey
would collect very detailed information from a large, representative
sample of the United States population. While none of the existing
surveys is ideal, the Current Population Survey, the New Beneficiary
Survey and the Survey of Consumer Finances each provide important
information for both purposes.
Current Population Survey
The most comprehensive and widely used source of information on the
income situation of the elderly are the findings of the Census Bureau's
Current Population Survey (CPS). The survey is conducted annually by
the Census Bureau, and a detailed analysis of the results for the
population age 55 and older is published biennially by the Bureau of
the Census and the Social Security Administration. For the CPS, the
Census Bureau samples a large cross-section of households in the United
States, gathering detailed information on income and labor force
participation for each person 14 years of age or older. The Special
Pension Supplement to this survey samples those 55 years old or older
to elicit additional information about pension coverage from this
subset. Results of the supplemental survey provide income and wealth
information for a representative sample of the working and non-working
elderly population. Table 1 contains a synopsis of the results of the
most recent survey.
Although the CPS data base is thought to be superior to other
information sources because of its broad coverage, it does suffer from
some problems. First, the definition of income used by the CPS does
not include certain types of non-money income, such as wages received
in kind and the net rental value of owner-occupied homes. Income from
these sources is thought to account for approximately 4 percent of
total personal income. Second, the field surveys underlying the CPS
reports inevitably produce some under-reporting of income. Even after
compensating for noninterviews and nonresponses, the March 1982 CPS
estimates of the total amount of income received by elderly persons is
somewhat lower than estimates of other independent sources.
Comparisons of the 1982 CPS estimates with the other totals reveal that
overall income in the survey is underreported by approximately 11
percent. Underreporting varied from about 58 percent for interest
income to only about 3 percent for wage and salary income.
In addition to the CPS, two other surveys provide detailed income
and asset information based on smaller, less comprehensive samples of
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TABLE 1 Current Population Survey: Sources and Levels of Income for the Elderly,
1982a
Median IncomeC
-
Income Source
Percent
Receiving Nonmarried Married All
Incomeb Persons Couples Elderly
Social Security 90% $4,450 $7,560 $5,170
Private Pensions 23 1,880 3,160 2,560
Government Pensions 12 4,360 7,320 5,560
Earnings 23 4,060 7,270 5,670
Assets 66 1,120 2,160 1,540
Total N.A. 5,880 15,130 8,790
, .
aElderly includes married couples living together, at least one of whom is 65
years old or older, and single persons 6S years old or older.
ball elderly.
CHedian income calculations exclude those units with no income from source.
SOURCE: Current Population Survey data, published in Susan Grad, Income of the
Population 55 and Over, 1982 (Social Security Administration, 1984~.
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the population. The results of these samples can be used to provide
insight into issues that require very detailed individual data.
New Beneficiary Survey
The New Beneficiary Survey (NBS) is performed every decade by the
Social Security Administration.2 The survey is designed to provide
social security policy analysts with sufficient information to evaluate
the current benefits provided by the social security program in terms
of both equity and adequacy, and to permit estimation of the effects of
proposed program changes. The NBS is a national, cross-sectional
survey of retired and disabled workers who first began receiving social
security benefits approximately one year before the survey date. Thus,
the results of this survey provide detailed information about the
economic status of the retired portion of the younger elderly
population.
Table 2 summarizes some of the published results from the most
recent survey. The data offer the first conclusive evidence that
supplementary pension plans will provide an increasing portion of _
retirement income of future elderly cohorts. By focusing on recent
retirees, this survey presents a better indication of financial
resources of future retirees than cross-sectional surveys of the entire
elderly population. Of course, the future role of pensions for this
group will depend on the rate of inflation over the group's retirement
lifetime, since most private pensions are not linked to increases in
the cost-of-living and state and local plans are only partially
adjusted for inflation.
Survey of Consumer Finances
A Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) has been sponsored periodically
by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and other
agencies since 1947.3 The 1983 survey collected detailed information
about income, assets, pension rights and benefits, and consumer
attitudes from a relatively small sample of American families. The SCF
provides particularly useful detail on the liquidity of financial
assets and home equity that is not found in other surveys. Because of
the limited sample size (particularly when the sample is divided into
subgroups such as persons 65 years old or older), care must be
exercised in interpreting this data. However, careful use of the
results can provide supplementary wealth and income data that are not
available elsewhere (see Table 3~. A comprehensive report on the
results of the SCF will be available from the Board of Governors by
July 1985.
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TABLE 2 New Beneficiary Survey: Sources and Levels of Income for New
Retirees, 1982
Percent Receiving Income Median Income
Nonmarried Married Nonmarried Married
Income Source Persons Coup1es Persons Couples
Social Security 98% 97% $5,052 $7,752
Pensions 44 27 3~492 5,880
Earnings 56 42 4,704 7,404
Assets 84 69 1,188 2,160
SOURCE: Linda Drazga Maxfield and Virginia P. Rena, "Distribution of
Income Sources of Recent Retirees: Findings from the New Beneficiary
Survey," Social Security Bulletin, vol. 48, no. 1 (January 1985), Table
4, p. 11.
_99 _
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TABLE 3 -Survey of Consumer Finances: Levels of Income and Assets of
Elderly Families by Age, 1983
.
Item 55-64 ~ 65-74 75 and Over
Income
Mean $32,292 $21,818 $11,334
Median 21,855 12,538 7,176
Financial Assetsa
Mean 54~951 65,339 37,060
Median 9,338 Il,400 10,350
65 and Over
Home Ownershicb
_,¢
Percent Owning 73% 70Z
Net Equity
Mean $73,578 $58,269
Median 55,000 41,857
aMean and median figures exclude families with no assets.
bNonfarm families only.
SOURCE: Robert B. Avery, Gregory E. Elliehausen and Glenn B.
Canner, "Survey of Consumer Finances, 1983," Federal Reserve Bulletin
vol. 70 (September 1984), Tables 3, 5, 7 and 10, pp. 682~686e
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Overall Results
As far as they are comparable, the results of the CPS, the NBS and
the SCF are remarkably consistent. Total median income for the elderly
is estimated by each survey to be approximately $9,000 in 1982. Both
the CPS and the NBS report virtually universal social security benefit
receipt, with social security income providing over 50 percent of total
income for almost 60 percent of the elderly population. Unfortunately,
biases introduced by differences in sample universes and
inconsistencies in reporting techniques preclude a smooth merger of the
results into one comprehensive, detailed data base. However, each
survey provides a unique contribution to the development of a complete
portrait of the economic status of today's elderly population. An
excellent synopsis of the available data is presented in Chapter 5,
"Economic Status of the Elderly," of the 1985 Economic Report of the
President (see attachment).4
Projected Data
For policy purposes, it is important to consider the economic status
of the elderly in the future, in addition to the current situation.
Some information on this issue could be gained by simulating the
changes in the income and asset situation of the young elderly sample
in the New Beneficiary Survey as they grow older, but a more
comprehensive picture would be provided by aging a representative
sample of today's non-elderly population in order to determine the
income and asset status of tomorrow's elderly. Projections created by
ICE Inc.'s PRISM model and the DYNASIM model of the Urban Institute
provide the most complete and accurate estimates of retirement income
sources and levels in the United States in the early 21st century.5
Ideally, each of these sources could be tapped to fill gaps in the
other, thereby creating one comprehensive projection of retirement
income to serve as a guideline for developing long-term care policies.
However, several differences in the structure and components of the
individual modules incorporated into the models and irreconcilable
parameter differences used in the simulations prevent an easy
integration (or even comparison) of the two sets of results. Thus,
policymakers are required to rely primarily on one model for
projections of retirement income data.
Methodology
The basic methodology underlying the two models is very similar.
Both models begin with an initial cross-sectional sample of the United
States. Population and dynamically age each unit in the sample to
create a longitudinal data base. The dynamic aging process uses a
series of sequential equations to determine how each unit's family
composition, wage, and labor force characteristics change from year to
year. These annual changes are restricted, in aggregate, to conform to
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exogenously determined macroeconomic trends. The resulting data base
includes family, work, and earnings histories. Hence, either model
could be used to project the future income and assets of the elderly.
In their present state, however, the PRISM model appears to offer
some advantages over DYNASIM for the task at hand. First, the PRISM
model simulates participation in supplemental pension plans, such as
IRAs and thrift plans, while DYNASIM does not. Although less than half
the population is expected to receive benefits from supplemental plans
by the year 2000 ? these benefits could account for a significant
portion of future retirement income, since supplemental pension plans
tend to be relatively generous and have quicker vesting than basic
plans. Second, PRISM uses seemingly more realistic assumptions
concerning vesting periods than the DYNASIM model. The PRISM model
assumes a shorter vesting schedule, and contains a restriction that
does not allow a worker to change jobs within two years of the vesting
point e Third, the PRISM model assigns a complete package of pension
plan characteristics to covered workers based on the provisions of -
actual retirement plans. These provisions are drawn from a sample of
315 plans sponsored by firms of all sizes in all industries. The
DYNASIM model, on the other hand, assigns each individual plan
characteristic to covered workers stochastically. It is not clear that
the PRISM methodology results in more accurate projections of aggregate
(and, thus, mean) benefit levels. However, since there is no control
in the DYNASIM model over assigning some workers to plans that tend to
be generous (or meager) in all respects, the micro level projections
developed by the PRISM model are probably more realistic than those
generated by the DYNASIM model.
A final consideration in an evaluation of the relative strengths of
the PRISM and DYNASIM projections is the quality of the initial data
base. All microsimulation techniques are plagued by insufficient
initial data. Both the PRISM and the DYNASIM simulations began with
data from the Current Population Survey matched with Social Security
Administration earnings records (CPS-SER). However, the PRISM
projections are based on the 1979 CPS-SER, while the DYNASIM estimates
rely on the 1973 CPS-SER. Although the 1973 CPS-SER sample includes
more observations than the 1979 survey, the latter is widely accepted
as the largest and most current statistically representative sample of
the U.S. population that provides extensive information on pension
coverage and work characteristics. Some of the PRISM projections for
the turn of the century are summarized in Tables 4 and 5.
Even though the PRISM model has some obvious advantages over DYNASIM
in projecting the level and sources of financial resources available to
the elderly in the future, all microsimulation projections are beset
with problems and it is probably useful to keep them in mind:
1) As discussed earlier, the Current Population Survey suffers from
both undercoverage and nonreporting in the initial sample and
underreporting of income in the final data base. Underreporting and
nonreporting of income can cause serious obstacles to the accurate
simulation of retirement income sources and levels. Other general data
base limitations which affect all models include: (a) Panel surveys
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TABLE 4 Sources and Levels of Family Retirement Income for the
Elder~y,a PRISM Projections, 2002-2011
Dollars in 1983 dollars
-
Percentage of ·-
Families
Receiving Income
from Source
Income Source
Average
Income or
Receivers
Average
Incomeb
for all
Families
Social Security 94% $8,700 $S, 200
Employer Pensions 71 9,300 6,600
Earnings from Employment 30 14,700 4,400
Individual Retirement Accounts 41 1,800 700
Supplemental Security Income 2 2,300 100
SavingsC N.A. N.A. N.A.
All Sources
20,000 20,000
aRetirement income at age 67 for individuals age 35-44 in 1979.
bIncludes families who do not receiveincome from the source.
CIn 1979, 71 percent of elderly families containeing individuals age
65-69 received an average of $3,000 in income from assets.
SOURCE: ICE, Inc., Future Retirement Benefits Under Employer Retirement
Plans Final Report, prepared for the American Council of Life Insurance
(June 1984), p. 46, Table IV-3.
-103-
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OCR for page 105
such as the CPS collect income information for the year preceding the
survey so that the survey reflects demographic characteristics of the
household for the current year and income data for the previous year;
(b) Income generally includes only money income, excluding in-kind
income or intra-family transfers, etc.; (c) Data on assets and health
limitations are limited on many of the files; and (d) Expenditure data
are almost nonexistent.
2) The modeling of job change behavior is still relatively
unrefined in comparison to other components of microsimulation models.
Most models have no mechanism for incorporating the influence of
pension plan characteristics on job change decisions that do not
involve retirement. The PRISM model was recently revised to allow for
some linkage between plan characteristics and job change behavior.6
However, the accuracy of the job change module is still restricted by
the assumption that job change behavior in the next 30 years will be
exactly the some as it was in the 1977-79 period.
3) Validation techniques used to measure the accuracy of
microsimulation models remain imprecise. Models are currently
monitored on both an individual and an aggregate level> to make sure
that the individual histories appear plausible while the aggregate
results conform to historical realities. In addition, standard
statistical techniques are used to determine the levels of confidence
for individual equations within each model. However, these techniques
measure the likelihood that the observed data were indeed derived
from the population in the model, and thus say nothing about the
congruence of the model with the real world.
In addition to these general problems, two deficiencies remain in
microsimulation techniques that have a particular impact on their use
for evaluating long-term care policies. First, the theoretical
framework required to build a module that simulates wealth
characteristics has not been satisfactorily developed. Thus, wealth
data is usually excluded from simulation results or imputed according
to current relationships between wealth and income from various
sources.
Second, current models have limited abilities to handle the
intergenerational transfer of resources. Most models have two types of
units in their sample population: families and persons. Families are
taken to be nuclear families, which include married couples and their
dependent children and single persons with their dependent children.
No current models are capable of maintaining linkages between the two
families when a child leaves one family and creates another. For
issues of long-term care, the intergenerational transfer of resources
is highly significant and, therefore, it would be important to try to
create the desired linkages.
-105-
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Vol II: The Long-Term Care Population: Definition and Measurement
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Vol IV: Financing Long-Term Care
Vol V: Long-Term Care Service Supply: Levels and Behavior
Vol VI: Long-Term Care Costs
Appendix: Long-Term Care Instrument and Definition Review
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
term care
