From Research to Operations in Weather Satellites and Numerical Weather Prediction: Crossing the Valley of Death (2000)

The origin of the summer study was a discussion of the issues in atmospheric sciences at the fall 1998 BASC meeting. The NASA representative at the meeting, while describing the program development in the Earth Sciences Directorate, noted that a major problem as he saw it was the lack of capability to hand over to the operational community (NOAA) the capabilities that were developed in the Earth Observing System program. He noted that sensors were developed without regard of the future operational possibility and that the operational NOAA program frequently developed sensors with characteristics almost identical to those in the NASA EOS program. He highlighted this as an area that presented an opportunity for more rapid and cost effective advances if cooperation between the two agencies could be improved.

At the same meeting the NOAA representative identified the apparent mismatch between the research opportunities that were being developed in the NOAA laboratories and the universities and the ability of the operational systems within the National Weather Service (NWS) to incorporate the new science and technology. This was particularly disturbing to the agency representatives and the BASC members because much of this research was being accomplished in response to the NWS stated needs for improvement in various areas. There was some discussion of the reasons for this disconnect, but the discussion at the BASC

meeting was not detailed enough to clarify the issues or identify areas of potential improvement. The NOAA representative subsequently identified to BASC the study that had been chartered by NOAA to examine the needs and opportunities for technology infusion in the NWS. This study, led by RAdm (U.S. Navy, Ret.) Craig Dorman, was provided to BASC as input into the summer study. BASC was considering the necessary follow up to the major review of the field, The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the Twenty-First Century(NRC, 1998a). Twenty potential areas from the report were under consideration for greater study by the BASC, but because of the importance of the issues raised by the NASA and NOAA liaisons to the board, the BASC accepted the topic of transition from research to operations in the weather satellites and numerical weather prediction for the 1999 summer study.

Discussions with NOAA and NASA liaisons to BASC developed the plan for the BASC summer study that would address the technology transfer issues that were identified at the BASC meeting. The agencies requested a focused study concentrating on the areas they felt presented the greatest problems. NASA representatives requested a look at the mechanisms for transition of research satellite sensors to operational systems. NOAA representatives were interested in concentration on the capability of the NWS's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and specifically on the NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) to implement the research results into operational numerical weather prediction within the NWS.

At its spring 1999 meeting BASC discussed the summer study with the agency representatives and developed the following statement of task:

The summer study did not address any potential reorganization of the weather forecasting activities in the nation.

Even though NOAA and NASA were the major agencies involved, the NSF also played a very important role in the preparation and in the study itself. BASC approved the plan and the agencies began to provide the material that would serve as the review material. To facilitate the summer study, BASC reviewed all relevant materials prior to the meeting.

The study was conducted at the Jonsson Center in Woods Hole, Massachusetts, from June 28 through July 2, 1999. In addition to the BASC members, the following also participated:

• Thomas Cuff, Deputy Technical Director, Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy

• Geoff DeMego, NOAA/NCEP

• Richard Greenfield, Director, Division of Atmospheric Sciences, NSF (presently Director, Atmospheric Public Policy Program, American Meteorological Society)

• Jamison Hawkins, Requirements Division, NOAA/NESDIS

• William Hooke, Director, U.S. Weather Research Program Office, NOAA/OAR

• Eugenia Kalnay, Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources liaison to BASC, University of Oklahoma (presently Chair, Atmospheric Sciences, University of Maryland)

• Jack Kelly, Director, National Weather Service, NOAA

• Stephen Lord, Acting Director, Environmental Modeling Center, NOAA/NCEP

• Alexander (Sandy) McDonald, Director, Forecast Systems Laboratory, NOAA

• Craig Nelson, NPOESS Integrated Program Office, NOAA

• Cynthia Nelson, Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research, NOAA

• Richard Rood, Office of Data Assimilation, Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA

• Edward Sarachik, University of Washington

• Robert Schiffer, Office of Earth Sciences, NASA

• Louis Uccellini, Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NOAA/NWS

• Greg Withee, Assistant Administrator for Satellite and Information Services, NOAA/NESDIS

Note: Specific time allotments were not assigned to topics or presenters in order to facilitate the discussion and allow sufficient time for each topic.

The first day covered the overview of the EMC and satellite situations and gave BASC the opportunity to examine the major issues with senior management from NWS, NESDIS, and NASA. Subsequent sessions examined the details of the two areas and sought to clarify what the major factors were that impeded the transition from research to operations. All sessions were open to all participants except the last day when BASC developed the draft report outline and identified writing assignments. All issues to be addressed in the report were discussed fully in the open sessions to ensure that the agency information had been properly understood and to permit the BASC members to question the agency representatives in detail.

• Welcome and Introductions (Barron and Mahoney)

• Logistics for the meeting (Friday and Gustafson)

• Scope of the study (Barron, Mahoney)

• Context of the national needs and priorities for weather and climate forecasting, including The Atmospheric Sciences Entering the Twenty-First Century(Barron, Pielke, Ryan)

• Strategic objectives of NOAA/NWS/NCEP for meeting the needs.

  NWS Perspective (Kelly)

  OAR Perspective (Macdonald)

  NCEP Perspective (Uccellini)

• Discussion of current environment at NCEP. The discussion should include the barriers to moving forward to meet the needs of the various users.

  A view from Lance Bosart (Presented by Barron/Mahoney)

  A view from Joanne Simpson (Presented by Barron/Mahoney)

  (Bosart and Simpson could not attend but provided comments in advance.)

  Identification of issues (NCEP)

  A view from the laboratory perspective (MacDonald)

  A view from someone who has been there (Kalnay)

• A look at other centers:

  Comparison of the U.S. centers (Cynthia Nelson)

  A Look at the Navy (Cuff)

  A Look at the ECMWF (Discussion of a paper by Tony Hollingsworth)

• NCEP plans for the future (Lord)

• Resource plans for NOAA with respect to computational capability (MacDonald)

• Issues in supercomputing (Rood)

• Research plans to meet the demands for the need for improved weather and climate forecasts (MacDonald)

• The ECMWF Model. What could work in the U.S.? What could not? Do we need to move in that direction? (Discussion of a paper by Tony Hollingsworth)

• Satellite transition discussions:

• Current NASA Earth Science Enterprise (ESE) plans, the ESE planning process, and NASA research to operations transition issues (Schiffer)

  Principles and issues being developed in response to the Goldin and Baker letters (Schiffer)

  NRC review of the NASA Post 2002 study, NASA's response to the report and issues still remaining (Geller, Barron, Sarachik, Schiffer)

  Progress of the BSD, BASC, and CGCR Chairs' review of the EOS - NPOESS transition issues (Barron)

  NOAA NPP program: Plans, mechanisms for infusing research requirements, and methods of balancing the demand pull and technology push (Withee)

  NOAA readiness for ‘shepherding' the “EOS” type data (Withee, Kelly, NCEP)

  NCEP capabilities for exploitation of new satellite data (NCEP)

This will be an open discussion during which the issues that have been presented during the previous days will be discussed and crystallized. This will be an opportunity for clarification of the material presented and BASC's understanding of the material and issues.

Report Preparation: Discussion of conclusions and recommendations, development of annotated outline, and identification of writing assignments.