• Inadequate/Insufficient Evidence to Determine Whether an Association Does or Does Not Exist. The available studies are of insufficient quality, consistency, or statistical power to permit a conclusion regarding the presence or absence of an association between an exposure to a specific agent and a health outcome in humans.

  • Limited/Suggestive Evidence of No Association. There are several adequate studies, covering the full range of levels of exposure that humans are known to encounter, that are mutually consistent in not showing a positive association between exposure to a specific agent and a health outcome at any level of exposure. A conclusion of no association is inevitably limited to the conditions, levels of exposure, and length of observation covered by the available studies. In addition, the possibility of a very small elevation in risk at the levels of exposure studied can never be excluded.

These five categories cover different degrees or levels of association, with the highest level being sufficient evidence of a causal relationship between exposure to a specific agent and a health outcome. The criteria for each category incorporate key points discussed earlier in this chapter. A recurring theme is that an association is more likely to be valid if it is possible to reduce or eliminate common sources of error in making inferences: chance, bias, and confounding. Accordingly, the criteria for each category express varying degrees of confidence based upon the extent to which it has been possible to exclude these sources of error. To infer a causal relationship from a body of evidence, the committee relied on long-standing criteria for assessing causation in epidemiology (Hill, 1971; Evans, 1976).


As discussed in the beginning of this chapter, the committee reviewed the available scientific evidence in the peer-reviewed literature in order to draw conclusions about associations between the agents of interest and adverse health effects in all populations. The committee placed its conclusions in categories that reflect the strength of the evidence for an association between exposure to the agent and health outcomes. The committee could not measure the likelihood that Gulf War veterans’ health problems are associated with or caused by these agents. To address this issue, the committee would need to compare the rates of health effects in Gulf War veterans exposed to the putative agents with the rates of those who were not exposed, which would require information about the agents to which individual veterans were exposed and their doses. However, as discussed throughout this report, there is a paucity of data regarding the actual agents and doses to which individual Gulf War veterans were exposed. Further, to answer questions about increased risk of illnesses in Gulf War veterans, it would also be important to know the degree to which any other differences be-

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