References and Bibliography

NOTE: Many of the cited reports and papers by U.S. Census Bureau staff are available on the Bureau's web site: http://www.census.gov. Other Bureau reports related to small-area income and poverty estimates may be obtained by contacting David Waddington, Division of Housing and Household Economic Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233.

Papers that were prepared for the panel—marked by an asterisk (*)—are available from the Committee on National Statistics, 2101 Constitution Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20418.

Abelson, R.P., and J.W. Tukey 1963 Efficient utilization of nonnumerical information in quantitative analysis: General theory and the case of simple order. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 34:1347-1369.

Alexander, C.H. 1998 Recent Developments in the American Community Survey. Paper prepared for the Joint Statistical Meetings, Dallas. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (August).

1999 Implications of the American Community Survey for the 2010 Census . Paper prepared for the Panel on Future Methods for the 2010 Census, Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (June).

Alexander, C.H., S. Dahl, and L. Weidman 1997 Making Estimates from the American Community Survey. Paper prepared for the Joint Statistical Meetings, Anaheim, Calif . Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (August).



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Small-Area Income and Poverty Estimates: Priorities for 2000 and Beyond References and Bibliography NOTE: Many of the cited reports and papers by U.S. Census Bureau staff are available on the Bureau's web site: http://www.census.gov. Other Bureau reports related to small-area income and poverty estimates may be obtained by contacting David Waddington, Division of Housing and Household Economic Statistics, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, D.C. 20233. Papers that were prepared for the panel—marked by an asterisk (*)—are available from the Committee on National Statistics, 2101 Constitution Ave. NW, Washington, D.C. 20418. Abelson, R.P., and J.W. Tukey 1963 Efficient utilization of nonnumerical information in quantitative analysis: General theory and the case of simple order. Annals of Mathematical Statistics 34:1347-1369. Alexander, C.H. 1998 Recent Developments in the American Community Survey. Paper prepared for the Joint Statistical Meetings, Dallas. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (August). 1999 Implications of the American Community Survey for the 2010 Census . Paper prepared for the Panel on Future Methods for the 2010 Census, Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (June). Alexander, C.H., S. Dahl, and L. Weidman 1997 Making Estimates from the American Community Survey. Paper prepared for the Joint Statistical Meetings, Anaheim, Calif . Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (August).

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Small-Area Income and Poverty Estimates: Priorities for 2000 and Beyond Anderson, M.J. 1988 The American Census: A Social History. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press. Becker, P.* 1998 Issues in Data Sources for Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates (SAIPE). Report prepared for the Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas, Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council. APB Associates, Detroit, Mich. Bell, W.R. 1997a A County CPS Model with “Census Residuals.” Statistical Research Division, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (July). 1997b Regression Diagnostics for Models for County Poverty Estimates–Complete. Statistical Research Division, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (September). 1999 Accounting for uncertainty about variances in small area estimation. Proceedings of the Section on Survey Research Methods. Alexandria, Va.: American Statistical Association. Belsley, D.A., E. Kuh, and R.E. Welsch 1980 Regression Diagnostics: Identifying Influential Data and Sources of Collinearity. New York: Wiley. Betson, D.M.* 1999a Further Comments on A2 [Zaslavsky and Schirm] Simulation Results and Observations. Paper prepared for the Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas, Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council . Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame, Ind. 1999b Tables 1-3 [showing distribution of errors in estimates of poor school-age children in Indiana school districts for 1989 on the basis of census and school lunch data]. Prepared for the Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas, Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council. Department of Economics, University of Notre Dame . Betson, D.M., C.F. Citro, and R.T. Michael 2000 Recent developments for poverty measurement in U.S. official statistics. Journal of Official Statistics (forthcoming). Cardiff, P. 1998 IRS Tax Return Data and Poor Children. Draft. Housing and Household Economic Statistics Division, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (September). Childers, D.R., and H.R. Hogan 1984 The IRS/Census Direct Match Study–Final Report. SRD Research Report No. Census/SRD/RR-84/11. Statistical Research Division, Bureau of the Census. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Citro, C.F. 1995 Data sources for measuring poverty. Appendix B in National Research Council, Measuring Poverty: A New Approach, Panel on Poverty and Family Assistance, C.F. Citro and R.T. Michael, eds., Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. 1996 The Concept of Income in the U.S. Decennial Censuses: 1960-90. Arlington, Va.: Association of Public Data Users. Coder, J.F. 1991 Exploring Nonsampling Errors in the Wage and Salary Income Data from the March Current Population Survey. Paper prepared for the Allied Social Sciences Association/Society of Government Economists meeting. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C.

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Small-Area Income and Poverty Estimates: Priorities for 2000 and Beyond 1992 Using administrative record information to evaluate the quality of the income data collected in the Survey of Income and Program Participation . Proceedings of Statistics Canada Symposium 92-Design and Analysis of Longitudinal Surveys. Ottawa: Statistics Canada. Coder, J.F., R.C. Fisher, and P.M. Siegel 1996 Making Model-Based Estimates of the Number of Related Persons Age 5-17 in Poverty for all U.S. Counties, 1994. Housing and Household Economic Statistics Division, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (November). Creech, J.W., and D.K. Sater 1999 Assessment of the Coverage of the Population by Exemptions Represented on Individual Income Tax Returns for Tax Year 1989. Unpublished paper. Population Division, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce , Washington, D.C. David, M., R.J.A. Little, M.E. Samuhel, and R.K. Triest 1986 Alternative methods for CPS income imputation. Journal of the American Statistical Association 81(393):28-41. Davis, S. 1994 Evaluation of Post Censal County Estimates for the 1980's. Population Division Working Paper Series, Number 5. Bureau of the Census. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Duan, N. 1983 Smearing estimate: A nonparametric retransformation method. Journal of the American Statistical Association 78(383):605-610. Fay, R.E. 1987 Application of multivariate regression to small domain estimation . Pp. 91-102 in Small Area Statistics, R. Platek, J.N.K. Rao, C.E. Sarndal, and M.P. Singh, eds. New York: Wiley. 1996 Methodology for Poverty Estimation for 1993. Section 2. Demographic Statistical Methods Division, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (November). 1997a Comparisons of CPS and Census Poverty Levels. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (October). 1997b Notes on Direct Variance Estimates for Counties. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (September). Fay, R.E., and R.A. Herriot 1979 Estimates of income for small places: An empirical Bayes application of James-Stein procedures to census data. Journal of the American Statistical Association 78:269-277. Fay, R.E., C.T. Nelson, and L. Litow 1993 Estimation of median income for 4-person families by state. Pp. 9-1 to 9-17 in Indirect Estimators in Federal Programs. Statistical Policy Working Paper 21, Statistical Policy Office, Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, Office of Management and Budget . Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Fay, R.E., and J. Thompson 1993 The 1990 post enumeration survey: Statistical lessons, in hindsight . Proceedings of the Bureau of the Census Annual Research Conference. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Fay, R.E., and G.F. Train 1995 Aspects of survey and model-based postcensal estimation of income and poverty characteristics for states and counties. Proceedings of the Section on Government Statistics. Alexandria, Va: American Statistical Association.

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Small-Area Income and Poverty Estimates: Priorities for 2000 and Beyond 1997 Small domain methodology for estimating income and poverty characteristics for states in 1993. Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. Alexandria, Va: American Statistical Association. Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology 1978 Report on Statistics for Allocation of Funds. Statistical Policy Working Paper No. 1. Office of Federal Statistical Policy and Standards. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Fellegi, I.P. 1981 Should the census be adjusted for allocation purposes? Pp. 47-75 in Current Topics in Survey Sampling, D. Krewski, R. Platek, and J.N.K. Rao, eds. New York: Academic Press. Ferrari, P. 1998 1996 American Community Survey vs. 1990 Decennial Census–Household Size and Characteristics by Response Mode. Paper prepared for the American Community Survey Symposium. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (March). Fisher, G.M. 1992 Poverty guidelines for 1992. Social Security Bulletin 55(1)(Spring):43-46. Fisher, R. 1997 Methods used for small area poverty and income estimation. Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. Alexandria, Va: American Statistical Association. Fisher, R., and J. Asher 1999a Alternate CPS Sampling Variance Structures for Constrained and Unconstrained County Models. Internal Technical Report Series #1. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 1999b Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling of U.S. County Poverty Rates. Paper presented at Case Studies in Bayesian Statistics Workshop. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (September). Fuller, W.A. 1995 Estimation in the presence of measurement error. International Statistical Review 63:121-147. Fuller, W.A., and J.J. Goyeneche* 1998 Estimation of the State Variance Component. Working Paper. Statistical Laboratory, Iowa State University, Ames. (June). Ghosh, M., and J.N.K. Rao 1994 Small-area estimation: An appraisal. Statistical Science 8(1):55-93. Hogan, H. 1993 The 1990 post-enumeration survey: Operations and results. Journal of the American Statistical Association 88:1047-1060. Jabine, T.B., K.E. King, and R.J. Petroni 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation: Quality Profile. Bureau of the Census. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. King, K.E., S.P. Chou, M.K. McCormick, and R.J. Petroni 1990 Investigations of the SIPP's cross-sectional noninterview adjustment method and variables. Proceedings of the Survey Research Methods Section. Alexandria, Va.: American Statistical Association. Kish, L. 1992 Weighting for unequal pi. Journal of Official Statistics 8:183-200. Lamas, E., J. Tin, and J. Eargle 1994 The Effect of Attrition on Income and Poverty Estimates from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). Paper presented at the Conference on Attrition in Longitudinal Surveys . Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C.

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Small-Area Income and Poverty Estimates: Priorities for 2000 and Beyond Long, J. 1993 Post Censal Population Estimates: States, Counties, and Places. Population Division Working Paper Series, Number 3. Bureau of the Census. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Love, S., and G. Diffendal 1998 The 1996 American Community Survey Monthly Response Rates, by Mode . Paper prepared for the American Community Survey Symposium. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (March). Marker, D.A. 1999 Organization of small-area estimators using generalized linear regression framework. Journal of Official Statistics 15:1-24. Martini, A., and Dowhan, D. 1996 Documenting and Explaining CPS-SIPP Differences in Poverty Measures Among the Elderly. Draft Final Repot to the U.S. Social Security Administration. The Urban Institute, Washington, D.C. McCullagh, P., and J.A. Nelder 1989 Generalized Linear Models. Second edition. New York: Chapman & Hall. Midwest Research Institute* 1999 Uses of Small-Area Poverty Estimates. Final Report. By L. Butcher and N. Dunton. Paper prepared for the Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas, Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council. Midwest Research Institute, Kansas City, Mo. Miller, H.P. 1966 Income Distribution in the United States. A 1960 census monograph prepared for the Social Science Research Council. Bureau of the Census. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Moskowitz, J., S. Stullich, and B. Deng 1993 Targeting, Formula, and Resource Allocation Issues: Focusing Federal Funds Where the Needs are Greatest. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Education. National Research Council 1980 Estimating Population and Income of Small Areas. Panel on Small-Area Estimates of Population and Income, Committee on National Statistics. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. 1993 The Future of the Survey of Income and Program Participation. Panel to Evaluate the Survey of Income and Program Participation, C.F. Citro and G. Kalton, eds., Committee on National Statistics. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. 1994 Counting People in the Information Age. Panel to Evaluate Alternative Census Methods, D.L. Steffey and N.M. Bradburn, eds., Committee on National Statistics. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. 1995a Measuring Poverty: A New Approach. Panel on Poverty and Family Assistance: Concepts, Information Needs, and Measurement Methods, C.F. Citro and R.T. Michael, eds., Committee on National Statistics. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. 1995b Modernizing the U.S. Census. Panel on Census Requirements in the Year 2000 and Beyond, B. Edmonston and C. Schultze, eds., Committee on National Statistics. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. 1997 Small-Area Estimates of Children in Poverty, Interim Report 1, Evaluation of 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas, C.F. Citro, M.L. Cohen, G. Kalton, and K.K. West, eds., Committee on National Statistics. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press.

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Small-Area Income and Poverty Estimates: Priorities for 2000 and Beyond 1998 Small-Area Estimates of Children in Poverty, Interim Report 2, Evaluation of Revised 1993 County Estimates for Title I Allocations. Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas, C.F. Citro, M.L. Cohen, and G. Kalton, eds., Committee on National Statistics. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. 1999 Small-Area Estimates of Children in Poverty, Interim Report 3, Evaluation of 1995 County and School District Estimates for Title I Allocations. Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas, C.F. Citro and G. Kalton, eds., Committee on National Statistics. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. 2000a Designing the 2010 Census: First Interim Report. Panel on Research Issues for the 2010 Census, M.L. Cohen and B.F. King, eds., Committee on National Statistics. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. 2000b Methodological Issues for the American Community Survey. Report of a Workshop. M.L. Cohen and M. Zitter, eds. Committee on National Statistics. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. 2000c Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty: Evaluation of Current Methodology. Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas, C. F. Citro and G. Kalton, eds., Committee on National Statistics. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. Otto, M.C., and W.R. Bell 1995 Sampling error modeling of poverty and income statistics for states . Proceedings of the Section on Government Statistics. Alexandria, Va.: American Statistical Association. Peterson, P.E., and M.C. Rom 1990 Welfare Magnets–A New Case for a National Standard. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution. Platek, R., J.N.K. Rao, C.E. Särndal, and M.P. Singh, eds. 1987 Small Area Statistics. New York: John Wiley and Sons. Posey, K.G., and E. Welniak 1998 Income in the ACS: Comparisons to the 1990 Census. Paper prepared for the American Community Symposium. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (March). Prasad, N.G.N., and J.N.K. Rao 1990 The estimation of mean squared errors of small area estimators. Journal of the American Statistical Association 78:47-59. Rao, J.N.K. 1999 Small Area Estimation: Updates with Appraisal. Unpublished paper. Carleton University, Ottawa. Robinson, G.K. 1991 That BLUP is a good thing: The estimation of random effects (with discussion). Statistical Science 6:15-51. Robinson, J.G., B. Ahmed, P. Das Gupta, and K. Woodrow 1993 Estimation of population coverage in the 1990 U.S. census based on demographic analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association 88(423):1061-1079. Sailar, P., and M. Weber 1998 The IRS population count: An update. Proceedings of the Section on Survey Research Methods. Alexandria, Va.: American Statistical Association. Salvo, J.J., and A.P. Lobo 1998 The American Community Survey: Nonresponse Follow-up in the Rockland County Test Site. Paper prepared for the American Community Survey Symposium. Population Division, Department of City Planning, New York, N.Y. (March).

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Small-Area Income and Poverty Estimates: Priorities for 2000 and Beyond Schindler, E. 1998 Allocation of the ICM sample to the states for census 2000. Proceedings of the Section on Survey Research Methods. Alexandria, Va.: American Statistical Association. Schirm, A.L. 1996 Borrowing Strength Across Space and Time: Bayesian Shrinkage Estimates of Infants and Children Income Eligible for the WIC Program in 1994, by State. Mathematica Policy Research, Inc., Washington, D.C. Schirm, A.L., and C. Long 1995 Fund allocation and small area estimation in the WIC program. Proceedings of the Section on Survey Research Methods. Alexandria, Va.: American Statistical Association. Short, K., M. Shea, D. Johnson, and T. Garner 1998 Poverty-measurement research using the Consumer Expenditure Survey and the Survey of Income and Program Participation. American Economic Review 88(2)(May):352-356. Siegel, P. 1997 Some Alternative Models. Draft. Housing and Household Economic Statistics Division, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (June). Siegel, P., and R. Fisher 1998 Sampling Variances of the 1990 Census Estimates of Numbers of Related Children Ages 5-17 in Families in Poverty for School Districts. Draft. Housing and Household Economic Statistics Division, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (September). Sink, L. 1996 Estimates of the Population of Counties by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1990-1994. Release PE-48 (Methodology). Bureau of the Census. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. Smith, A.S. 1999 The American Community Survey and Intercensal Population Estimates: A Further Exploration of Existing Crossroads. Paper prepared for the Population Association of America meeting, New York. Population Division, Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce , Washington, D.C. (March). Spencer, B.D., and Che-Fu Lee 1980 Postcensal population estimation methods of the Census Bureau. Pp. 131-187 in Estimating Population and Income of Small Areas. Panel on Small-Area Estimates of Population and Income, Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council. Washington, D.C.: National Academy Press. Tersine, A. 1998 Item Nonresponse: 1996 American Community Survey. Paper prepared for the American Community Survey Symposium. Bureau of the Census, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (March). U.S. Census Bureau 1987 State Population and Household Estimates, with Age, Sex, and Components of Change: 1981-86. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1010. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. 1995 Subnational Estimates of Total Population by the Tax Return Method. Population Estimates Branch, Population Division. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce.

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Small-Area Income and Poverty Estimates: Priorities for 2000 and Beyond 1996 Poverty in the United States: 1995. Current Population Reports, Series P60-194. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. 1998a Evaluation of the Synthetic Methodology to Estimate School District Populations in the United States. Paper prepared for the Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas, Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council . Population Division, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (June). 1998b 1995 SAIPE State and County Models. Draft documentation. By P. Cardiff, R. Fisher, P. Siegel, A. Strand, D. Waddington, W.R. Bell, and M. Kramer, with assistance from R.E. Fay and G. Train. U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. (October). 1998c SIPP Quality Profile. Third Edition. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. 1999a Accuracy of the Data (1998) [American Community Survey]. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce 1999b Estimates of Poor and Population for School Districts: School Year 1995-1996. Draft documentation. By E. Miller, M. Kramer, A. Strand, R. Fisher, W.R. Bell, and P. Siegel. U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 1999c Experimental Poverty Measures. By K. Short, T. Garner, D. Johnson, and P. Doyle. Current Population Reports, Series P60-205. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce. 1999d Provisional Guidance on the Implementation of the 1997 Standards for Federal Data on Race and Ethnicity. Draft of Chapter IV-C. Population Division, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics 2000 Current Population Survey Design and Methodology. Technical paper 63. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Commerce and U.S. Department of Labor. U.S. Department of Education 1998 A National Study of Charter Schools: Second Year Report. Office of Educational Research and Improvement. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Education. Available: http://www.ed.gov/PDFDocs/chartsch98.pdf. U.S. General Accounting Office 1999 Formula Grants—Effects of Adjusted Population Counts on Federal Funding to States. GAO/HEHS-99-69. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. General Services Administration 1999 Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance Programs. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. U.S. Office of Management and Budget 1993 Indirect Estimators in Federal Programs. Statistical Policy Working Paper 21. Subcommittee on Small-Area Estimation, Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology, Statistical Policy Office, Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office. Voss, P.R., R. Gibson, and K. Morgen* 1997 Assessment of the Initial 1993 Estimates of School Age Children in Poverty. Paper prepared for the Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas, Committee on National Statistics, National Research Council . Department of Rural Sociology, University of Wisconsin-Madison. Waksberg, J., D. Levine, and G. Kalton 1999 The American Community Survey: A Report on the Use of Multi-Year Averages. Report prepared for the Bureau of the Census. Rockville, Md.: Westat.

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Small-Area Income and Poverty Estimates: Priorities for 2000 and Beyond Ycas, M.A., and C.A. Lininger 1983 The Income Survey Development Program: Design features and initial findings. Pp. 25-31 in Technical, Conceptual, and Administrative Lessons of the Income Survey Development Program (ISDP): Papers Presented at a Conference, M.H. David, ed. New York: Social Science Research Council. Zeger, S.L., and M. R. Karim 1991 Generalized linear models with random effects: A Gibbs sampling approach . Journal of the American Statistical Association 70:138-144.

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